Indirect effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict revealed: global food supply at risk

Peer-Reviewed Publication

COMPLEXITY SCIENCE HUB VIENNA

 

IMAGE: THE RESEARCHERS CREATED AN INTERACTIVE VISUALIZATION BASED ON THEIR DATA AND RESULTS. THIS ALLOWS EVERYONE TO EXPLORE GLOBAL CONNECTIONS AND TEST THEIR OWN SCENARIOS. view more 

CREDIT: © COMPLEXITY SCIENCE HUB

192 countries and 125 different foods: A recent study by the Complexity Science Hub reveals interdependencies in the global food supply. Here, the researchers have uncovered the profound - also indirect - effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

 

At the latest, the Russia-Ukraine conflict revealed loud and clear that the global food supply chain acts as a complex network, connecting nations and facilitating the spread of disruptions from local to distant regions. „However, previous studies often focus on direct dependencies and overlook indirect dependencies resulting from the unavailability of essential inputs, making a comprehensive assessment of the global food system difficult,” emphasizes research director Stefan Thurner of the Complexity Science Hub.

INDIRECT EFFECTS OFTEN EXCEED DIRECT EFFECTS

To bridge this gap, the research team developed a dynamic global food system model, incorporating data from 192 countries and territories and encompassing 125 food and agricultural products. “This model enabled us to simulate shocks to specific products and countries, closely monitoring the subsequent effects across the entire supply chain,” explains Moritz Laber of the Complexity Science Hub. By quantifying the relative reduction in product availability compared to a baseline scenario (without the shock), the researchers gained valuable insights into the magnitude of these shocks. Remarkably, they found that indirect effects often exceeded direct effects. For example, a shock to Ukrainian corn production led to a 13% decline in pork availability in Southern Europe. In comparison, a shock to Ukrainian pork production had a negligible effect of less than 1%.

UP TO 85% LOSS OF MAIZE

In a worst-case scenario simulation, where agricultural production in Ukraine was completely lost due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the study unveiled diverse effects on products and regions worldwide. „The loss of grains, particularly maize, reached up to 85%, while edible oils, especially sunflower oil, experienced losses of up to 89%. Additionally, certain meat types, such as poultry, suffered losses of up to 25% in various countries,“ says Laber. The number of products for which a region is dependent on Ukraine varies greatly: Southern Europe is the most affected, with 19 out of 125 products with losses of more than 10%, followed by West Asia and North Africa, where this is the case for 15 and 11 products respectively.

These findings emphasize that localized production disruptions have far-reaching implications, extending beyond geographic boundaries through trade relationships and the entire production chain. Consequently, it is imperative to consider both direct and indirect effects when estimating losses and formulating effective interventions.

RISK NOT ONLY FROM WARS

As the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters its second year, food prices are still above 2021 levels, according to the European Council. In addition, various events, including extreme weather events, economic crises, and geopolitical tensions, can trigger similar disruptions. This underscores the importance of exploring interdependencies within global food supply chains and gaining a comprehensive understanding of the direct and indirect impacts of local shocks to raise awareness among policymakers and stakeholders of otherwise overlooked risks within the global food system.

These research findings are a valuable first leap in understanding the complex dynamics of global food supply chains and their vulnerability to local shocks. Further research is needed to map them at a more granular level considering individual products and subnational scales at a higher temporal resolution. Moreover, at present, the model assumes that countries do not change their trading partners after a shock. However, restructuring trade relations may exacerbate existing inequalities, as wealthier countries may secure remaining resources at higher prices from alternative suppliers.

In March, the CSH co-founded the Austrian Supply Chain Intelligence Institute (ASCII) to contribute even more to making supply dependencies visible in the future.

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FIND OUT MORE

The study “Shock propagation in international multilayer food-production network determines global food availability: the case of the Ukraine war” has been published in Nature Food (doi: 10.1038/s43016-023-00771-4): https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-023-00771-4.

To make these scientific findings accessible to all, the Complexity Science Hub has developed the following: 

• A freely accessible, interactive visualization where anyone can explore global contexts and test their own scenarios.
• A video that explains how this visualization works
• An Internet Rallye for schools where children can explore global interrelationships in a playful way

 

Comparison of the relative loss (RL) of various products in different world regions due to indirect, production-related effects (left half of each cell) to direct, trade-related effects (right half of each cell). For a shock to Ukrainian maize production (upper panel) indirect effects often exceed direct effects of shocks to the respective products, while indirect effects are less important in the case of shocks to sunflower seed production in Ukraine (lower panel).

CREDIT

© Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)/CSH

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ABOUT THE COMPLEXITY SCIENCE HUB

The mission of the Complexity Science Hub (CSH Vienna) is to host, educate, and inspire complex systems scientists dedicated to making sense of Big Data to boost science and society. Scientists at the Complexity Science Hub develop methods for the scientific, quantitative, and predictive understanding of complex systems.

The CSH Vienna is a joint initiative of AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Central European University CEU, Danube University Krems, Graz University of Technology, Medical University of Vienna, TU Wien, VetMedUni Vienna, Vienna University of Economics and Business, and Austrian Economic Chambers (WKO). https://www.csh.ac.at

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JOURNAL

Nature Food

DOI

10.1038/s43016-023-00771-4 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Computational simulation/modeling

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Shock propagation from the Russia–Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability

Change food choices to increase chances of tackling global warming

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM

Action to protect the planet against the impact of climate change will fall short unless we reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the global food system, which now makes up a third of man-made GHG emissions, a new study reveals.

The largest emission increase within food supply chains is triggered by beef and dairy consumption in rapidly developing countries, such as China and India, whilst emissions per head in developed countries with a high percentage of animal-based food declined.

The United Nations projects that an additional 70 percent of the current food demand will be needed to feed the world's estimated population of 9.1 billion by 2050.

Publishing their findings today (15 June) in Nature Food, an international group of scientists led by the Universities of Groningen and Birmingham, say that the growth of the global population and rising demand for emission-intensive food are likely to boost emissions further.

“A global shift in diets, including reducing excessive intake of red meat and improving shares of plant-based protein – will not only reduce emissions but avoid health risks such as obesity and cardiovascular disease” stated corresponding author, Prof. Klaus Hubacek from the University of Groningen.

Another corresponding author, Dr Yuli Shan, from the University of Birmingham, commented: “The agrifood system drives global land use and agricultural activities - contributing to around one-third of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Population growth, expansion of food production, and an increase in animal-based diets are likely to further increase emissions and squeeze the global carbon budget.

The first author, Yanxian Li, a PhD student at the University of Groningen added that “Mitigating emissions at every stage of food supply chains from production to consumption is critical if we are to limit global warming. However, widespread and lasting diet shifts are very difficult to achieve quickly, so incentives that encourage consumers to reduce red meat or buy products with higher environmental dividends could help to reduce food emissions.”

Researchers analysed data linking emissions to consumers between 2000 and 2019, revealing that in 2019, food consumption in the five highest emitting countries, China (2.0 Gt CO2-eq), India (1.3 Gt), Indonesia (1.1 Gt), Brazil (1.0 Gt) and the USA (1.0 Gt), was responsible for more than 40% of global food supply chain emission.

Annual global GHG emissions associated with food increased by 14% (2 Gt CO2-eq) over the 20-year period. The substantial increase in consuming animal-based products contributed to some 95% of the global emissions rise, accounting for almost half of total food emissions. Beef and dairy contributed 32% and 46% of the increase in global animal-based emissions.

Consumption of grains and oil crops is responsible for 43% (3.4 Gt CO2-eq in 2019) and 23% (1.9 Gt CO2-eq) of global plant-based emissions respectively, whilst rice contributes to over half of the global grain-related emissions (1.7 Gt CO2-eq), with Indonesia (20%), China (18%), and India (10%) being the top three contributors.

Soybean (0.6 Gt CO2-eq) and palm oil (0.9 Gt CO2-eq) have the largest shares in global emissions from oil crops with 30% and 46%, respectively. Indonesia, the world's leading consumer of palm oil, has the largest emissions from palm oil (35% of the global total in 2019), followed by Southeast Asia (13%), Western Europe (10%), and China (9%).

The study reveals considerable differences regarding emission patterns and the reasons behind these trends – classifiable as follows:

1. Countries with high per capita food emission levels and dominant livestock emissions (mainly from red meat) (North America, Australia, Latin America & Caribbean);
2. Developed countries which heavily rely on imports and outsource substantial amounts of food-related emissions (Japan and Europe);
3. Rapidly developing countries with substantial emission increase driven by rapid population growth or improved living standards (China, South Asia, Near East & North Africa); and
4. Countries with emission-intensive production, mainly with extensive land-use change activities (Brazil, Indonesia, and South and Central African regions).

The researchers also note that a series of trade policies are accelerating emissions through increasing food imports from countries/regions with emission-intensive production – for example, the EU’s Green Deal encourages less intensive agriculture in Europe and increasing imports of agricultural products from countries such as Brazil, USA, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

ENDS

For more information, please contact Tony Moran, International Communications Manager, University of Birmingham on +44 (0)782 783 2312 or t.moran@bham.ac.uk. For out-of-hours enquiries, please call +44 (0) 7789 921 165.

Notes to Editors

• The University of Birmingham is ranked amongst the world’s top 100 institutions, its work brings people from across the world to Birmingham, including researchers and teachers and more than 8,000 international students from over 150 countries.
• ‘Changes in global food consumption increase GHG emissions despite efficiency gains along global supply chains’ - Yanxian Li, Honglin Zhong, Yuli Shan, Ye Hang, Dan Wang, Yannan Zhou, Klaus Hubacek is published by Nature Food. Please feel free to include the following link to the research paper (live post-embargo) in any online news stories: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-023-00768-z
• Participating institutions include the University of Birmingham, UK; University of Groningen, the Netherlands; Shandong University, Weihai, China; and University of Shanghai for Science and Technology.

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JOURNAL

Nature Food

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Changes in global food consumption increase GHG emissions despite efficiency gains along global supply chains

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

15-Jun-2023

Two-thirds of physicians and biomedical scientists report harassment on social media since start of the COVID-19 pandemic

‘The harassment is out of control and social media platforms don’t seem to care,’ study says

Peer-Reviewed Publication

NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY

In 2021 the U.S. surgeon general called on physicians and public health scientists to combat misinformation on social media. Many answered the plea, and many have faced unprecedented levels of harassment on social media as a result.

A new research letter published yesterday (June 14) in the journal JAMA Network found doctors and scientists are experiencing alarming rates of personal attacks on social media.

Two-thirds (66%) of survey respondents reported harassment on social media, compared to an earlier pre-COVID 19 survey conducted in 2020 by the same group of scientists, which found 23.3% of physicians reported receiving personal attacks on social media.

Women and other gender-expansive respondents were more likely than men to report harassment based on gender (67% and 58% versus 13%) and 82% of Black respondents reported harassment based on race or ethnicity, compared to 52% of Asian respondents, 15% of white respondents and 69% of Hispanic respondents.

First author Dr. Regina Royan, a research fellow at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine and a Northwestern emergency medicine physician, said the results may indicate a connection between burnout and online patterns.

“This study highlights that physicians and scientists changed the way they used social media during the pandemic,” Royan said. “Sadly, those that use social media to share public health messages are more likely to face harassment. These are the people that we can’t afford to lose in this conversation, especially at a time when trusted messengers for public health information are essential.”

The survey included 359 physicians, scientists or trainees in the United States. Doctors and scientists identified advocacy around topics such as vaccination, masks, firearms, reproductive rights and gender-affirming care as topics that fueled harassment.  Respondents also were given a platform to share personal experiences of online attacks that sometimes spilled over into professional and physical threats.

“When I posted a picture of myself with my badge in my white coat after my COVID-19 vaccination I received hundreds of harassing anti-vax messages including death threats,” one respondent said.

Others detailed the impact on their mental health: “I use social media less. I found it was too draining for me, and my mental health was suffering.”

Dr. Tricia Pendergrast, a recent Feinberg School of Medicine graduate who led the pre-COVID-19 study on harassment, recalled several responses from people who feared for their safety.

“The 2020 study was the first to examine the prevalence of harassment among physicians who use social media,” Pendergrast said. “Everyone on the team involved in the study — including physicians, scientists and medical trainees — has personal experiences in which they’ve felt uncomfortable or unsafe.

“We want physicians who are being harassed to feel less alone, and if they are being targeted or feel unsafe or if their mental health is being affected negatively, they are not the only one who has felt like that,” she said.

Royan added that physicians and biomedical scientists play an essential role in combatting misinformation on social media — and it’s especially important that underrepresented communities see themselves reflected in the authorities sharing information.

“We need physicians of every race and ethnicity in the field and on social media,” Royan said. "At the end of the day, harassment of physicians and biomedical scientists on social media is a health equity issue."

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JOURNAL

JAMA

DOI

10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.18315 

Quantum hacking alert: USTC uncovers critical vulnerabilities in quantum key distribution

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY OF CHINA

The team led by academician GUO Guangcan from the University of Science and Technology of China of the Chinese Academy of Sciences made progress in the practical security of quantum key distribution (QKD). Researchers identified a potential security vulnerability in the modulator device of the QKD transmitter, and conducted quantum hacking attacks utilizing this vulnerability. The attacks demonstrated that when the vulnerability is not adequately protected, an attacker may exploit it to obtain the entire key information. The results were published in Optica and Physical Review Applied. 

Although QKD theoretically enables the generation of information-theoretically secure keys between users, the non-ideal characteristics of practical devices may deviate from the theoretical assumptions, making them susceptible to eavesdropping attacks. Therefore, conducting a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of the practical security of QKD systems and subsequently designing more robust and secure practical systems are crucial for advancing the practical application of QKD. 

GUO's team has made progress in analyzing the practical security of QKD systems and developing attack-defense techniques. The achievements include the discovery of a control vulnerability in the avalanche-transition region of detection devices, proposing a variable attenuation defense scheme to counter control attacks on detection devices, developing a detection-independent quantum random number generator, and designing error-correcting enhanced protocols to eliminate coding biases. 

In this study, researchers proposed a novel approach to attack the QKD system by externally injecting photons to manipulate the operational state of the core device at the transmitter, compromising the security of the key. They identified and analyzed the substantial impact of photorefraction in commercial lithium niobate (LN) devices on QKD. They designed and validated attack schemes specifically targeting Bennett-Brassard 1984 protocol-based QKD systems, and revealed that the attacker could execute the attack by injecting an optimized irradiation beam with an intensity of merely 3 nW. 

Besides, researchers developed a transmitter attack scheme tailored for measurement-device-independent QKD systems. By simultaneously measuring all quantum states transmitted by the sender and inducing photorefraction in the LN modulator through injected irradiation beam, the attacker could effectively conceal the disturbances caused by their measurement actions. Pioneering quantum hacking attack experiment on a functional measurement-device-independent QKD system demonstrated the eavesdropper's ability to surreptitiously acquire almost all the cryptograohic keys.  

To counteract these vulnerabilities and attacks, researchers proposed comprehensive system design strategies and technical implementation schemes that effectively mitigate the risks. The experimental validation substantiated that through meticulous system design and optimized utilization of devices, the practical security of QKD systems can be significantly bolstered. 

This study not only identified and analyzed potential vulnerabilities at the transmitter and the threats they pose to practical system security, but also proposed solutions, which is of great significance for promoting the practical application and standardization of QKD. 

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JOURNAL

Physical Review Applied

DOI

10.1103/PhysRevApplied.19.054052 

ARTICLE TITLE

Induced-Photorefraction Attack against Quantum key Distribution

The Situation of the Uyghurs

Grant and Award Announcement

UNIVERSITY OF WÜRZBURG

 

IMAGE: THE LOGO OF THE EU PROJECT "REMOTE XUAR", DESIGNED IN THE SHAPE OF AN EYE, WANTS TO SAY THAT RESEARCHERS KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION OF THE UYGHURS EVEN FROM A DISTANCE. view more 

CREDIT: REMOTE XUAR PROJECT

The autonomous Uyghur region of Xinjiang (China) is located in the heart of Central Asia and at the crossroads between different cultures. Throughout its history, it has produced a unique cultural mix and a complex demographic mosaic.

Xinjiang is home to the Muslim Uyghurs, who are an ethnic minority in China. The region is the scene of severe human rights violations: There are reports of mass detentions of Uyghurs and other ethnic groups in re-education camps, coercive labour and forced sterilisations.

But the picture of the actual situation in Xinjiang remains unclear. This is partly because access to the region has been drastically restricted since 2017. Since then, even researchers have no longer been able to visit the region.

European Union supports project

Professor Björn Alpermann, a sinologist from Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg (JMU) in Germany, has been observing the situation of the Uyghur population in Xinjiang for a long time. Important findings come from ethnographic field research, which scientists were still able to conduct until the 2010s. "Today, however, most types of field research would be highly questionable under the given circumstances," says Alpermann.

The JMU sinologist has therefore teamed up with other researchers to observe the region from afar: with Rune Steenberg from Palacký University Olomouc (Czech Republic) and with Vanessa Frangville from the Université libre de Bruxelles (Belgium). Their joint project "Remote XUAR" is funded by the European Union.

Remote research and interviews

The EU project focuses on remote research methods. These include internet-based document analyses, discourse analyses in social media as well as satellite-based remote sensing. Satellite data can not only be used to analyse places such as re-education camps, factories or mosques in detail, but also offer access to socio-spatial questions of urbanisation and land use. In addition, there are interviews with people who have left China and the Xinjiang region in recent times.

"We do not only want to observe, archive and critically analyse the everyday changes in Xinjiang. It is also our goal to contribute to the development of remote research methods," says Björn Alpermann.

To this end, the project participants have developed their own approach, which they call Remote Ethnography. They are building a research team that shares material and findings within a scientific community on a weekly basis. The project aims to work with media, policy makers and civil society to raise awareness as well as the quality and objectivity of reporting and discourse on Xinjiang and the Uyghurs.

Methods workshop

In connection with the project, a methods workshop will be held at JMU from 19 to 22 June 2023. It will bring together some leading experts to present state-of-the-art remote research methods and discuss how they can be used for Xinjiang studies. Among the topics will be analyses of political documents, remote sensing and digital ethnography.

Energy harvesting via vibrations: researchers develop highly durable and efficient device

Peer-Reviewed Publication

TOHOKU UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: THE PRINCIPLE, STRUCTURAL DESIGN, AND APPLICATION OF CARBON FIBER-REINFORCED POLYMER-ENHANCED PIEZOELECTRIC NANOCOMPOSITE MATERIALS. view more 

CREDIT: TOHOKU UNIVERSITY

An international research group has engineered a new energy-generating device by combining piezoelectric composites with carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP), a commonly used material that is both light and strong. The new device transforms vibrations from the surrounding environment into electricity, providing an efficient and reliable means for self-powered sensors.

Details of the group’s research were published in the journal Nano Energy on June 13, 2023.

Energy harvesting involves converting energy from the environment into usable electrical energy and is something crucial for ensuring a sustainable future. 

“Everyday items, from fridges to street lamps, are connected to the internet as part of the Internet of Things (IoT), and many of them are equipped with sensors that collect data,” says Fumio Narita, co-author of the study and professor at Tohoku University's Graduate School of Environmental Studies. “But these IoT devices need power to function, which is challenging if they are in remote places, or if there are lots of them.” 

The sun’s rays, heat, and vibration all can generate electrical power. Vibrational energy can be utilized thanks to piezoelectric materials’ ability to generate electricity when physically stressed. Meanwhile, CFRP lends itself to applications in the aerospace and automotive industries, sports equipment, and medical equipment because of its durability and lightness.

“We pondered whether a piezoelectric vibration energy harvester (PVEH), harnessing the robustness of CFRP together with a piezoelectric composite, could be a more efficient and durable means of harvesting energy,” says Narita.

The group fabricated the device using a combination of CFRP and potassium sodium niobate (KNN) nanoparticles mixed with epoxy resin. The CFRP served as both an electrode and a reinforcement substrate.

The so-called C-PVEH device lived up to its expectations. Tests and simulations revealed that it could maintain high performance even after being bent more than 100,000 times. It proved capable of storing the generated electricity and powering LED lights. Additionally, it outperformed other KNN-based polymer composites in terms of energy output density.

The C-PVEH will help propel the development of self-powered IoT sensors, leading to more energy-efficient IoT devices.

Narita and his colleagues are also excited about the technological advancements of their breakthrough. “As well as the societal benefits of our C-PVEH device, we are thrilled with the contributions we have made to the field of energy harvesting and sensor technology. The blend of excellent energy output density and high resilience can guide future research into other composite materials for diverse applications.”

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JOURNAL

Nano Energy

DOI

10.1016/j.nanoen.2023.108588 

ARTICLE TITLE

Energy Harvesting and Wireless Communication by Carbon Fiber-Reinforced Polymer-Enhanced Piezoelectric Nanocomposites

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

13-Jun-2023

Navigating underground with cosmic-ray muons

New technology enables navigation in places GPS can’t reach

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO

 

IMAGE: MUONS EXIST FOR ONLY 2.2 MICROSECONDS (ONE MICROSECOND IS JUST ONE-MILLIONTH OF A SECOND), BUT BECAUSE THEY TRAVEL AT THE SPEED OF LIGHT IN A VACUUM (300,000 KILOMETERS PER SECOND), THEY HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO REACH EARTH FROM THE ATMOSPHERE AND PENETRATE DEEP INTO THE GROUND. view more 

CREDIT: 2015 HIROYUKI K.M. TANAKA

Superfast, subatomic-sized particles called muons have been used to wirelessly navigate underground in a reportedly world first. By using muon-detecting ground stations synchronized with an underground muon-detecting receiver, researchers at the University of Tokyo were able to calculate the receiver’s position in the basement of a six-story building. As GPS cannot penetrate rock or water, this new technology could be used in future search and rescue efforts, to monitor undersea volcanoes, and guide autonomous vehicles underground and underwater.

GPS, the global positioning system, is a well-established navigation tool and offers an extensive list of positive applications, from safer air travel to real-time location mapping. However, it has some limitations. GPS signals are weaker at higher latitudes and can be jammed or spoofed (where a counterfeit signal replaces an authentic one). Signals can also be reflected off surfaces like walls, interfered with by trees, and can’t pass through buildings, rock or water.

By comparison, muons have been making headlines in recent years for their ability to help us look deep inside volcanoes, peek through pyramids and see inside cyclones. Muons fall constantly and frequently around the world (about 10,000 per square meter per minute) and can’t be tampered with. “Cosmic-ray muons fall equally across the Earth and always travel at the same speed regardless of what matter they traverse, penetrating even kilometers of rock,” explained Professor Hiroyuki Tanaka from Muographix at the University of Tokyo. “Now, by using muons, we have developed a new kind of GPS, which we have called the muometric positioning system (muPS), which works underground, indoors and underwater.”

MuPS was initially created to help detect seafloor changes caused by underwater volcanoes or tectonic movement. It uses four muon-detecting reference stations aboveground to provide coordinates for a muon-detecting receiver underground. Early iterations of this technology required the receiver to be connected to a ground station by a wire, greatly restricting movement. However, this latest research uses high-precision quartz clocks to synchronize the ground stations with the receiver. The four parameters provided by the reference stations plus the synchronized clocks used to measure the muons’ “time-of-flight” enables the receiver’s coordinates to be determined. This new system is called the muometric wireless navigation system (MuWNS).

To test the navigation ability of MuWNS, reference detectors were placed on the sixth floor of a building while a “navigatee” took a receiver detector to the basement floor. They slowly walked up and down the corridors of the basement while holding the receiver. Rather than navigating in real time, measurements were taken and used to calculate their route and confirm the path they had taken.

“The current accuracy of MuWNS is between 2 meters and 25 meters, with a range of up to 100 meters, depending on the depth and speed of the person walking. This is as good as, if not better than, single-point GPS positioning aboveground in urban areas,” said Tanaka. “But it is still far from a practical level. People need one-meter accuracy, and the key to this is the time synchronization.”

Improving this system to enable real-time, meter-accurate navigation hinges on time and money. Ideally the team wants to use chip-scale atomic clocks (CSAC): “CSACs are already commercially available and are two orders of magnitude better than the quartz clocks we currently use. However, they are too expensive for us to use now. But, I foresee that they will become much cheaper as the global demand for CSAC for cellphones increases,” said Tanaka.

MuWNS could someday be used to navigate robots working underwater or guide autonomous vehicles underground. Aside from the atomic clock, all the other electronic components of MuWNS can now be miniaturized, so the team hopes that eventually fitting it into hand-held devices, like your phone, will be feasible. In emergency situations like a building or mine collapse, this may be a future game changer for search and rescue teams.

The red line in this image represents the path the “navigatee” walked, while the white line with dots shows the path recorded by MuWNS.

According to the researchers, when using MuWNS in an indoor or underground environment, it could achieve a higher accuracy compared to radio frequency identification (RFID) and Zigbee technologies, and a much broader range though much lower accuracy than lidar and acoustic navigation.

CREDIT

2023 Hiroyuki K.M. Tanaka

Paper Title:

Hiroyuki K. M. Tanaka, Giuseppe Gallo, Jon Gluyas, Osamu Kamoshida, Domenico Lo Presti, Takashi Shimizu, Sara Steigerwald, Koji Takano, Yucheng Yang, Yusuke Yokota. First navigation with wireless muometric navigation system (MuWNS) in indoor and underground environments. iScience: June 15, 2023. 

Funding

No relevant details.

Useful Links:

Muographix: https://www.muographix.u-tokyo.ac.jp/

Related press release: https://www.u-tokyo.ac.jp/focus/en/press/z0508_00251.html

Related press release: https://www.u-tokyo.ac.jp/focus/en/press/z0508_00212.html

Related article: https://www.u-tokyo.ac.jp/focus/en/articles/z0508_00121.html

muPS introductory video: https://www.youtube.com/@MUOGRAPHIX/videos

 

Research Contact:

Professor Hiroyuki Tanaka

Muographix, International Muography Research Organization

The University of Tokyo,

1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0032, Japan                                          

Email: ht@muographix.u-tokyo.ac.jp, ht@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp, ht@virtual-muography-institute.org

Tel.: +81-3-5841-5789

Press contact:
Mrs. Nicola Burghall
Public Relations Group, The University of Tokyo,
7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8654, Japan
press-releases.adm@gs.mail.u-tokyo.ac.jp

About the University of Tokyo
The University of Tokyo is Japan's leading university and one of the world's top research universities. The vast research output of some 6,000 researchers is published in the world's top journals across the arts and sciences. Our vibrant student body of around 15,000 undergraduate and 15,000 graduate students includes over 4,000 international students. Find out more at www.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en/ or follow us on Twitter at @UTokyo_News_en.

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JOURNAL

iScience

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

First navigation with wireless muometric navigation system (MuWNS) in indoor and underground environments.

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

15-Jun-2023

 Intriguing correlation between earthquakes and cosmic radiation

Peer-Reviewed Publication

THE HENRYK NIEWODNICZANSKI INSTITUTE OF NUCLEAR PHYSICS POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

 

IMAGE: IN SPACE YOU CAN SEE IMPENDING EARTHQUAKES. NOT SO LITERALLY, AS IN THE ABOVE COLLAGE OF PHOTOS, BUT STILL CLEARLY – IN THE CHANGES IN THE INTENSITY OF COSMIC RAYS RECORDED BY OBSERVATORIES ON THE SURFACE OF OUR PLANET. view more 

CREDIT: SOURCE: IFJ PAN/NASA/JSC

 

There is a clear statistical correlation between global seismic activity and changes in the intensity of cosmic radiation recorded at the surface of our planet, potentially helping to predict earthquakes. Surprisingly, it exhibits a periodicity that escapes unambiguous physical interpretation.

Strong earthquakes usually result in many human casualties and huge material losses. The scale of the tragedy could be significantly reduced if we had the ability to predict the time and place of such cataclysmic events. The CREDO project, initiated in 2016 by the Institute of Nuclear Physics of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IFJ PAN) in Cracow, attempts to verify the previously known hypothesis that earthquakes could potentially be predicted by observing changes in... cosmic radiation. Statistical analyses have shown that a correlation between the two phenomena does indeed exist, but manifests characteristics that no one had expected.

The international CREDO (Cosmic Ray Extremely Distributed Observatory) project is a virtual cosmic ray observatory, open to all, that collects and processes data not only from sophisticated scientific detectors, but also from a large number of smaller detectors, among which the CMOS sensors in smartphones are leading the way (to turn a smartphone into a cosmic ray detector, simply install the free CREDO Detector app). One of CREDO's main tasks is to monitor global changes in the flux of secondary cosmic radiation reaching the surface of our planet. This radiation is produced in the Earth's stratosphere most intensely within the so-called Regener-Pfotzer maximum, where particles of primary cosmic radiation collide with the gas molecules of our atmosphere and initiate cascades of secondary particles.

“At first glance, the idea that there is a link between earthquakes and cosmic radiation, in its primary form reaching us mainly from the Sun and deep space, may seem strange. However, its physical foundations are fully rational”, emphasises Dr. Piotr Homola (IFJ PAN and AstroCeNT CAMK PAN), coordinator of CREDO and first author of the article describing the discovery in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics.

The main idea here is the observation that eddy currents in the liquid core of our planet are responsible for generating the Earth's magnetic field. This field deflects the paths of charged particles of primary cosmic radiation. Thus, if large earthquakes were associated with disturbances in the flows of matter that drive the Earth's dynamo, these disturbances would alter the magnetic field, which in turn would affect the tracks of the particles of primary cosmic radiation in a manner that depends on the dynamics of the disturbances inside our planet. As a result, ground-based detectors should see some changes in the numbers of secondary cosmic ray particles detected.

CREDO physicists analysed cosmic ray intensity data from two stations of the Neutron Monitor Database project (collected over the last half-century) and the Pierre Auger Observatory (collected since 2005). The choice of observatories was determined by the fact that they are located on both sides of the equator and use different detection techniques. The analyses included changes in solar activity, as described in the database maintained by the Solar Influences Data Analysis Centre. Key information on Earth's seismic activity was in turn sourced from the U.S. Geological Survey programme.

The analyses were carried out using several statistical techniques. In each case, for the period studied, a clear correlation emerged between changes in the intensity of secondary cosmic radiation and the summed magnitude of all earthquakes with magnitudes greater-than or equal to 4. Importantly, this correlation only becomes apparent when the cosmic ray data are shifted 15 days forward relative to the seismic data. This is good news, as it suggests the possibility of detecting upcoming earthquakes well in advance.

Unfortunately, it is not clear from the analyses whether it will be possible to pinpoint locations of  cataclysms. Correlations between changes in cosmic ray intensity and earthquakes are not apparent in location-specific analyses. They only appear when seismic activity is taken into account on a global scale. This fact may mean that in changes in cosmic ray intensity one can see a phenomenon to which our planet is subjected as a whole.

“In the scientific world, it is accepted that a discovery can be said to have been made when the statistical confidence level of the corroborating data reaches five sigma, or standard deviations. For the observed correlation, we obtained more than six sigma, which means a chance of less than one in a billion that the correlation is due to chance. We therefore have a very good statistical basis for claiming that we have discovered a truly existing phenomenon. The only question is, is it really the one we were expecting?” wonders Dr. Homola.

Indeed, it turns out that the global nature of the observed phenomenon and the 15-day advance in seismic activity evident in cosmic radiation are not the only intriguing puzzles associated with the discovery. A major surprise is the large-scale periodicity of the correlation – a phenomenon that no one had expected. Analyses show that the correlation maximum occurs every 10-11 years, a period similar to the solar activity cycle. However, it does not coincide at all with the maximum activity of our star!

Furthermore, there are other common periodicities of unknown nature in both cosmic ray and seismic data. Examples include periodic changes in seismic activity and the intensity of secondary cosmic radiation over a cycle corresponding to the Earth's stellar day (equal to 24 hours minus ~236 seconds). Could it be, then, that cosmic-seismic correlations are caused by some factor reaching us from outside the Solar System, capable of simultaneously producing radiation and seismic effects? Only what conventional physical phenomenon could even qualitatively explain the apparent correlations?

The lack of classical explanations for the observed periodicities provokes consideration of the possible role of other, less conventional phenomena. One of these could be the passage of the Earth through a dark matter stream modulated by the Sun and other massive bodies in our planetary system. The Earth, with its large magnetic field, is an extremely sensitive particle detector, many times larger than human-built detectors. It is therefore reasonable to allow for the possibility that it may respond to phenomena that are invisible to existing measuring devices.

“Regardless of the source of the observed periodicities, the most important thing at this stage of the research is that we have demonstrated a link between the cosmic radiation recorded at the surface of our planet and its seismicity – and if there is anything we can be sure of, it is that our observation points to entirely new and exciting research opportunities,” concludes Dr. Homola.

The Henryk Niewodniczański Institute of Nuclear Physics (IFJ PAN) is currently one of the largest research institutes of the Polish Academy of Sciences. A wide range of research carried out at IFJ PAN covers basic and applied studies, from particle physics and astrophysics, through hadron physics, high-, medium-, and low-energy nuclear physics, condensed matter physics (including materials engineering), to various applications of nuclear physics in interdisciplinary research, covering medical physics, dosimetry, radiation and environmental biology, environmental protection, and other related disciplines. The average yearly publication output of IFJ PAN includes over 600 scientific papers in high-impact international journals. Each year the Institute hosts about 20 international and national scientific conferences. One of the most important facilities of the Institute is the Cyclotron Centre Bronowice (CCB), which is an infrastructure unique in Central Europe, serving as a clinical and research centre in the field of medical and nuclear physics. In addition, IFJ PAN runs four accredited research and measurement laboratories. IFJ PAN is a member of the Marian Smoluchowski Kraków Research Consortium: "Matter-Energy-Future", which in the years 2012-2017 enjoyed the status of the Leading National Research Centre (KNOW) in physics. In 2017, the European Commission granted the Institute the HR Excellence in Research award. As a result of the categorization of the Ministry of Education and Science, the Institute has been classified into the A+ category (the highest scientific category in Poland) in the field of physical sciences.

 

 

CONTACTS:

 

Dr. Piotr Homola

Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences

tel.: +48 12 6628341

email: piotr.homola@ifj.edu.pl

 

 

SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS:

 

“Observation of large scale precursor correlations between cosmic rays and earthquakes with a periodicity similar to the solar cycle”

P. Homola, V. Marchenko, A. Napolitano, R. Damian, R. Guzik, D. Alvarez-Castillo, S. Stuglik, O. Ruimi, O. Skorenok, J. Zamora-Saa, J.M. Vaquero, T. Wibig, M. Knap, K. Dziadkowiec, M. Karpiel, O. Sushchov, J.W. Mietelski, K. Gorzkiewicz, N. Zabari, K. Almeida Cheminant, B. Idźkowski, T. Bulik, G. Bhatta, N. Budnev, R. Kamiński, M.V. Medvedev, K. Kozak, O. Bar, Ł. Bibrzycki, M. Bielewicz, M. Frontczak, P. Kovacs, B. Łozowski, J. Miszczyk, M. Niedźwiecki, L. del Peral, M. Piekarczyk, M. D. Rodriguez Frias, K. Rzecki, K. Smelcerz, T. Sośnicki, J. Stasielak, A. A. Tursunov

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2023, 247, 106068

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106068

 

 

LINKS:

 

http://www.ifj.edu.pl/

The website of the Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences.

 

http://press.ifj.edu.pl/

Press releases of the Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences.

 

IMAGES:

IFJ230614b_fot01s.jpg                                 

HR: http://press.ifj.edu.pl/news/2023/06/14/IFJ230614b_fot01.jpg

In space you can see impending earthquakes. Not so literally, as in the above collage of photos, but still clearly – in the changes in the intensity of cosmic rays recorded by observatories on the surface of our planet. (Source: IFJ PAN/NASA/JSC)

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JOURNAL

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

DOI

10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106068 

ARTICLE TITLE

Observation of large scale precursor correlations between cosmic rays and earthquakes with a periodicity similar to the solar cycle