The $300 Trillion Question

Lucy White, Catarina Saraiva and Swati Pandey
Sun, September 17, 2023

(Bloomberg) -- Ligaya Kelly worries her pet boarding facility on the outskirts of Los Angeles won’t survive the winter if loan costs keep rising. Economist Diana Mousina says she’ll have to sell her Sydney investment property if interest rates remain higher. John Stanyer has cut back plans for his holiday park in the north of England after his mortgage repayments almost tripled.

Like millions of borrowers across the world, the aspirations of Kelly, Mousina and Stanyer have collided with the steepest monetary tightening campaign in a generation. They’ve done what they can to weather the storm – Kelly has cut workers, Mousina dines at home these days and Stanyer’s expansion plans are on hold -- but how long they can hold out will depend on factors beyond their control, such as deglobalization, aging and the cost of the energy transition.It’s arguably the biggest question in economics right now: Are these higher interest rates here to stay? In textbook jargon, it all comes down to R-Star (written as R* in economic models) -- the long-term neutral interest rate that keeps inflation steady at central bank’s preferred pace of around 2%.

In the decade or so after the 2008 financial crisis, the neutral rate dropped across developed economies as inflation remained generally subdued even as central banks kept interest rates at historically low levels. Deepening globalization meant cheap TVs and clothes, while memories of the crisis kept consumers subdued and held businesses back from investments, putting a lid on demand.

The post-Covid price spike shattered that calm, spurring a debate among economists, central bankers and bond traders about the future of inflation and interest rates – with very real implications for a world saddled with about $300 trillion in debt. If central banks conclude that R* is now higher, then they'll need to keep their benchmark rates more elevated too.

Anna Wong, chief U.S. economist for Bloomberg Economics, recently ran the numbers on what varying estimates of the neutral interest rate would mean for policy settings of the Federal Reserve, which meets later this week. She found a higher neutral rate would result in fewer interest-rate cuts in the next couple of years.

Kelly was paying about $7,000 a month in interest when she first took her Small Business Administration loan back in 2018 to expand a dog and cat kennel in Santa Clarita, California. The business had good prospects and pedigree — it was founded in the 1970s by the son of a famed trainer whose dog Terry starred alongside Judy Garland in the Wizard of Oz.

Now, after the Fed’s 5.25 percentage points of interest-rate hikes over the past year and a half, those repayments are almost $12,000 a month and the outlook is bleak.

"Rising interest rates are killing me," says Kelly, who runs the kennel with her husband and adult children. "I have to find ways to cut this because if we don’t, we’re not going to survive another winter."

Kelly has laid off two employees, reduced hours for others and dialed back on services like bookkeeping. A busy summer travel season has given a bit of a cushion, but looking ahead she’s worried interest rates will keep rising and is drafting next year's budget assuming higher payments, though she hopes they won't exceed $15,000 per month.

Some 2,300 miles east, at the austere Fed offices in Washington DC, officials aren’t ruling out more rates pain for Kelly and her kennel. In an August speech at the central bank's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Chair Jerome Powell signaled that interest rates will likely stay high for some time, or even move higher, should inflation remain sticky.

Seared by the failure in analysis and communication that led to erroneous calls that inflation would prove transitory as prices spiked in 2021, Fed officials these days aren’t giving much away when it comes to their longer-term rates view. Powell has led officials in saying it’s too early to tell exactly where inflation and rates will settle once the economy normalizes.

As deputy chief economist at financial giant AMP Ltd., 35-year-old Mousina is doing OK for herself. In August 2016, with official interest rates recently cut to 1.5%, she jumped into the investment property game, buying a two-bedroom apartment near Maroubra beach in Sydney’s south.After 4 percentage points of interest-rate increases since May 2022, Mousina now says most of her income is going toward mortgage repayments on her home and the apartment, leaving little room for "fun expenses" such as holidaying and eating out.

"It's going to make it harder for me to keep it," if benchmark interest rates stay around 3-4% for an extended period, said Mousina of the Maroubra apartment. "If we're at a point where I can't continue to service the loan on it I will sell it off."

In contrast with America, where most home borrowers are on 30-year fixed rates, more than 70% of home loans in Australia are tied to variable rates that move largely in line with central bank levels. With household debt averaging about 190% of disposable incomes, each of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest-rate hikes has ratcheted up the pain on mortgagees.

Former Governor Philip Lowe, whose seven-year tenure wasn’t extended amid criticism of his communication failures as inflation surged, weighed in on the debate in his final speech as RBA chief on Sept. 7, saying it’ll be difficult to return to the days of low and steady inflation.

“The increased prevalence of supply shocks, deglobalisation, climate change, the energy transition and shifts in demographics mean either steeper supply curves or more variable supply curves,” he said. “While this doesn’t mean that the inflation target can’t be achieved on average, it does mean that inflation is likely to be more variable around that target.”

The debate is especially relevant in the UK, which has seen some of the highest rates of inflation among major economies in the wake of Covid.Holiday park owner Stanyer saw the first virus lockdown in 2020 as an opportunity to scale up his business. As the price of vacation lodges fell, he snapped up a couple more, adding to his collection nestled across a cluster of fields in the picturesque county of Cumbria.

Three years on, Stanyer thinks it could be some time before he’s able to invest in expansion again. He’s mortgaged his house and taken out a loan to generate the cash with which to build Wallace Lane Farm, and the cost of that debt has surged.

“A few years ago repayments were about £280 a month,” says Stanyer, 59, of his variable-rate mortgage. “Now they’ve almost trebled.”

A March speech at the London School of Economics by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey may have given Stanyer some hope. Bailey said it wasn’t unreasonable to expect the UK’s neutral interest rate would “remain low” due to weak productivity and an aging population.

Older demographics lead to wealth being stored in the economy as people tend to save throughout their working life. At the same time, lower productivity has caused companies to invest less. This means “ageing households have sought to lend more at a time when less productive firms have sought to borrow less,” Bailey concluded, and the only way to “establish an equilibrium” is for “the price of those funds, the real interest rate, to fall.”

Yet other economists are using some of those same factors, including an aging population, to argue the exact opposite. In its recent midyear outlook, economists at asset management giant Blackrock reasoned that the demographic shift could be inflationary because there’ll be fewer people of working-age, causing a supply squeeze.

Economist Charles Goodhart has yet another theory, advanced in his 2020 book `The Great Demographic Reversal,’ co-authored with Manoj Pradhan. As the population gets older, he argues, saving rates will slow as fewer people hoard money into a pension. In order to incentivize saving to fund investment, interest rates will need to be higher, he says.

Back in Cumbria, Stanyer says he’s lived through periods of higher interest rates before, having worked in small and family-run businesses since the 1980s. But he’s worried that, this time round, the business environment will make it more difficult to cope with higher repayments.

Higher rates “makes expanding the business very much more difficult, very much more expensive, and very much more risky than it once was,” he says. “I, like many others, have cut back on my plans for expansion because I'm not willing to bet the company on the chance that the economy will do well in the next few years.”

Bloomberg Businessweek

DRESS CODES ARE REACTIONARY

A Black student was suspended for his hairstyle. The school says it wasn't discrimination

CHEYANNE MUMPHREY
Sun, September 17, 2023 










nIn this photo provided by Darresha George, her son Darryl George, 17, a junior at Barbers Hill High School in Mont Belvieu, Texas, sits for a photo showing his locs, at the family's home, Sept. 10, 2023. The same week a state law went into effect prohibiting discrimination on the basis of hair, George was suspended because his locs did not comply with the district's dress code.

 (Darresha George via AP)

The same week his state outlawed racial discrimination based on hairstyles, a Black high school student in Texas was suspended because school officials said his locs violated the district's dress code.

Darryl George, a junior at Barbers Hill High School in Mont Belvieu, received an in-school suspension after he was told his hair fell below his eyebrows and ear lobes. George, 17, wears his hair in thick twisted dreadlocks, tied on top of his head, said his mother, Darresha George.

George served the suspension last week. His mother said he plans to return to the Houston-area school Monday, wearing his dreadlocks in a ponytail, even if he is required to attend an alternative school as a result.

The incident recalls debates over hair discrimination in schools and the workplace and is already testing the state's newly enacted CROWN Act, which took effect Sept. 1.

The law, an acronym for “Create a Respectful and Open World for Natural Hair,” is intended to prohibit race-based hair discrimination and bars employers and schools from penalizing people because of hair texture or protective hairstyles including Afros, braids, dreadlocks, twists or Bantu knots. Texas is one of 24 states that has enacted a version of the CROWN Act.

A federal version of the CROWN Act passed in the House of Representatives last year, but was not successful in the Senate.

For Black people, hairstyles are more than just a fashion statement. Hair has always played an important role across the Black diaspora, said Candice Matthews, national minister of politics for the New Black Panther Nation. (Her group is not affiliated with another New Black Panther organization widely considered antisemitic.)

“Dreadlocks are perceived as a connection to wisdom,” Matthews said. “This is not a fad, and this is not about getting attention. Hair is our connection to our soul, our heritage and our connection to God.”

In George's family, all the men have dreadlocks, going back generations. To them, the hairstyle has cultural and religious importance, his mother said.

“Our hair is where our strength is, that’s our roots,” Darresha George said. “He has his ancestors locked into his hair, and he knows that."

Historians say braids and other hairstyles served as methods of communication across African societies, including to identify tribal affiliation or marriage status, and as clues to safety and freedom for those who were captured and enslaved.

After slavery was abolished, Black American hair became political. Although the Civil Rights Act of 1964 banned discrimination on the basis of race, color, religion, sex and national origin, Black people continued to face professional and social stigma for not adopting grooming habits that fit white, European beauty standards and norms.

The issue of race-based hair discrimination in the workplace has long existed alongside concerns in public and private schools. In 2018, a white referee in New Jersey told a Black high school wrestler to cut his dreadlocks or forfeit a match. Viral video of the wrestler having his hair cut with scissors as the crowd watched prompted the referee's suspension and spurred passage of the state's CROWN Act.

Darresha George said her son has been growing his dreadlocks for nearly 10 years and the family never received pushback or complaints until now. When let down, his dreadlocks hang above his shoulders. She said she couldn't understand how he violated the dress code when his hair was pinned up.

“I even had a discussion about the CROWN Act with the principal and vice principal," she said. “They said the act does not cover the length of his hair.”

Barbers Hill Independent School District prohibits male students from having hair extending below the eyebrows, ear lobes or top of a t-shirt collar, according to the student handbook. Additionally, hair on all students must be clean, well-groomed, geometrical and not an unnatural color or variation. The school does not require uniforms.

The school previously clashed with another Black male student over the dress code. Barbers Hill officials told a student he had to cut his dreadlocks to return to school or participate in graduation in 2020, which garnered national attention.

Greg Poole, who has been district superintendent since 2006, said the policy is legal and teaches students to conform as a sacrifice benefitting everyone.

“When you are asked to conform ... and give up something for the betterment of the whole, there is a psychological benefit," Poole said. "We need more teaching (of) sacrifice.”

Nearby districts have less stringent policies in place. For example, Poole noted others allow students to wear jeans with holes in them, while Barbers Hill does not. He said parents come to the district because of its strict standards and high expectations, which he credits for the district's academic success.

Attorney Allie Booker, who represents the family, said the school's argument doesn't hold up because length is considered part of a hairstyle, which is protected under the law.

“We are going to continue to fight, because you can't tell someone that hairstyles are protected and then be restrictive. If style is protected, then style is protected,” she said.

Darresha George said she and her son refuse to conform to a standard set by someone who is uncomfortable or ignorant.

“My son is well-groomed, and his hair is not distracting from anyone’s education,” Darresha George said. “This has everything to do with the administration being prejudiced toward Black hairstyles, toward Black culture.”

The district defends its dress code, which says its policies are meant to “teach grooming and hygiene, instill discipline, prevent disruption, avoid safety hazards and teach respect for authority.”

George's situation has drawn solidarity from young Black people around the nation, who say they have long dealt with discriminatory dress codes and comments from adults about their hair.

“When I was in fifth grade, I had a teacher tell me that my blue hair, my pink hair, was unnatural and too distracting for the other students in the class,” said Victoria Bradley, 19, who lives in Detroit. Michigan passed the CROWN Act into law this year.

Bradley, whose hair is braided and currently dyed multiple colors, said she attributes a lot of her hair confidence to her mother, Bernita Bradley, a longtime hair stylist and director of parent voice for the National Parents Union.

Bernita Bradley said her first introduction to the CROWN Act was in 2021, when a biracial, 7-year-old girl in Michigan had her hair cut by a school worker without her parents’ permission. The girl’s father, Jimmy Hoffmeyer, filed a $1 million lawsuit against the school district, alleging racial discrimination and ethnic intimidation. The lawsuit was settled earlier this year.

“That was modern-day scalping of this Black child,” Bradley said.

Darryl George completed his suspension Friday, but his mother is concerned about what will happen Monday when he returns to school with his dreadlocks in a ponytail.

“He will be up to dress code on Monday with his dreadlocks, which do not go past his eyebrows or ear lobes,” Darresha George said. School officials told her they planned to enroll her son in an alternative school if they believed he continued to violate the dress code.

After the suspension, “his grades are suffering, which also means he is not able to play football or participate in any extracurriculars," Darresha George said. “He was on track to graduate early, and now he is falling behind and will have to work double time just so he can still graduate.”

The family has considered switching school districts, she said. “That's a fight in its own right.”

___

Mumphrey reported from Phoenix.

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The Associated Press education team receives support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

THE WAR ON HUMAN RIGHTS

2 years ago, the Taliban banned girls from school. It’s a worsening crisis for all Afghans

RIAZAT BUTT
Updated Mon, September 18, 2023 



Girls attend school on the first day of the new school year, in Kabul, Afghanistan, on March 25, 2023. Two years after the Taliban banned girls from school beyond sixth grade, Afghanistan is the only country in the world with restrictions on female education. Now, the rights of Afghan women and children are on the agenda of the United Nations General Assembly Monday, Sept. 18, 2023, in New York.

 (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi, File)

ISLAMABAD (AP) — Two years after the Taliban banned girls from school beyond sixth grade, Afghanistan is the only country in the world with restrictions on female education. Now, the rights of Afghan women and children are on the agenda of the United Nations General Assembly Monday in New York.

The U.N. children’s agency says more than 1 million girls are affected by the ban, although it estimates 5 million were out of school before the Taliban takeover due to a lack of facilities and other reasons.

The ban triggered global condemnation and remains the Taliban's biggest obstacle to gaining recognition as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan. But the Taliban defied the backlash and went further, excluding women and girls from higher education, public spaces like parks, and most jobs.

Here’s a look at the ban on girls’ education:

WHY DID THE TALIBAN EXCLUDE GIRLS FROM HIGH SCHOOL?

The Taliban stopped girls’ education beyond sixth grade because they said it didn’t comply with their interpretation of Islamic law, or Sharia. They didn’t stop it for boys. In the past two years, they’ve shown no signs of progress in creating the conditions they say are needed for girls to return to class.

Their perspective on girls’ education partly comes from a specific school of 19th century Islamic thought and partly from rural areas where tribalism is entrenched, according to regional expert Hassan Abbas.

“The ones who went on to develop the (Taliban) movement opted for ideas that are restrictive, orthodox to the extreme, and tribal,” said Abbas, who writes extensively about the Taliban. The Taliban leadership believes women should not participate in anything social or public and should especially be kept away from education, said Abbas.

The Taliban also stopped girls’ education when they ruled Afghanistan in the late 1990s.

WHAT DO MUSLIM-MAJORITY COUNTRIES SAY ABOUT THE BAN?

There’s a consensus among clerics outside Afghanistan that Islam places equal emphasis on female and male education. “The Taliban have no basis or evidence to claim the contrary,” said Abbas. But pleas from individual countries and groups, like the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, have failed to sway the Taliban.

Syed Akbar Agha, a former Taliban front-line commander, said the insurgents espoused an Islamic system the day they entered Kabul in August 2021.

“They also gave Afghans and the outside world the idea that there would be an Islamic system in the country,” said Agha. “There is currently no (other) Islamic system in the world. The efforts of the international community are ongoing to implement democracy in Islamic countries and turn them away from the Islamic system.”

WHAT IS THE IMPACT OF THE BAN ON WOMEN?

Roza Otunbayeva, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres' special representative for Afghanistan and the head of the U.N. mission in Afghanistan, said one of the obvious impacts of an education ban is the lack of training of aspiring health care professionals.

Female medical students had their studies halted after last December’s Taliban edict banning higher education for women. Afghan women work in hospitals and clinics -- health care is one of the few sectors open to them — but the pipeline of qualified people will dry up. Afghan women cannot see male doctors, so children will also lose out on medical attention if women are their primary carers.

“Looking into the future and a scenario where nothing changes, where will the female doctors, midwives, gynecologists, or nurses come from?” Otunbayeva said in an email to The Associated Press. “In a strictly gender segregated society, how will Afghan women be able to get the most basic healthcare services if there are no female professionals to treat them?”

WHAT IS THE IMPACT ON AFGHANISTAN'S WIDER POPULATION?

The high school ban is not just about girls’ rights. It’s a worsening crisis for all Afghans.

Tens of thousands of teachers have lost their jobs. Support staff are also unemployed. Private institutions and businesses that benefited financially from girls’ education have been hit. Afghanistan has a shattered economy and people's incomes are plummeting. Excluding women from the job market hurts the country's GDP to the cost of billions of dollars, says UNICEF.

The Taliban are prioritizing Islamic knowledge over basic literacy and numeracy with their shift toward madrassas, or religious schools, paving the way for a generation of children with no contemporary or secular education to improve their or the country's economic future.

There are other consequences for the general population, like public health and child protection.

U.N. data says birth rates are higher among Afghan girls aged 15-19 who don't have secondary or higher education. A woman’s education can also determine if her children have basic immunization and if her daughters are married by the age of 18. The lack of women's education is among the major drivers of deprivation, says the U.N.

Aid groups say girls are at increased risk of child labor and child marriage because they're not at school, amid the growing hardships faced by families.

WILL THE TALIBAN CHANGE THEIR MINDS?

The Taliban waged a decades-long jihad to implement their vision of Sharia. They are not backing down easily. Sanctions, frozen assets, the lack of official recognition, and widespread condemnation has made little difference.

Countries that have a relationship with the Taliban could make an impact. But they have different priorities, reducing the prospects of a united front on girls’ education.

Pakistan has concerns about a resurgence of militant activity. Iran and Central Asian countries have grievances about water resources. China is eyeing investment and mineral extraction opportunities.

There's a bigger likelihood of pressure coming from within Afghanistan.

The Taliban rule of today is different from that of decades ago. Senior leaders, including the chief spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid, rely on social media for key messaging to Afghans at home and abroad.

They point to their success in eradicating narcotics and cracking down on armed groups like the Islamic State. But improving security and wiping out poppy crops will only satisfy people to a point.

While Afghans are concerned about the loss of girls' education, they have more immediate worries like earning money, putting food on the table, keeping a roof over their heads, and surviving droughts and harsh winters.

There is a desire within Afghanistan for the Taliban to have some kind of international acceptance, even if it's not recognition, so the economy can thrive.

Public opinion is much more relevant and influential today than it was during Taliban rule in the 90s, said Abbas. “Internal pressure from ordinary Afghans is going to ultimately push Kandahar in the corner and make a difference."

But it could take years for the ban's consequences to hit Afghan men and trigger a groundswell of unrest. Right now, it only affects girls and it's mostly women who have protested the slew of restrictions.

Agha said Afghans will support the ban if the end goal is to enforce hijab, the Islamic headscarf, and finish gender mixing. But they won't if it's simply to end girls' education outright.

“I think only the nation can lead the way,” he said.

Did you have a severe case of COVID-19? Research suggests that Neanderthal genes could be to blame

Charles R. Davis
Sun, September 17, 2023

An employee of the Natural History Museum in London looks at model of a Neanderthal male in his twenties. Researchers say they've found a link between those with gene variations associated with Neanderthal ancestry and severe cases of COVID-19.

Will Oliver/PA Images/Getty

• Neanderthal genes could be to blame for severe cases of COVID-19, The Wall Street Journal reported.

• Scientists in Italy found people with Neanderthal gene variants were more likely to be hospitalized.

• The research suggests the variants are a "major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19."

Researchers in Italy say their study of people infected with COVID-19 shows that those with certain genetic variations attributable to Neanderthal ancestry were far more likely to experience severe symptoms requiring hospitalization, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday.

Writing in the journal iScience, the researchers, associated with the nonprofit Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, reported that they examined the DNA of nearly 1,200 volunteers in the Bergamo province, which was especially hard hit in the early days of the pandemic. What they found is that "Neanderthal haplotype," a set of genetic variants associated with the human ancestor, is "the major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19."

In particular, they found that people with the Neanderthal haplotype were twice as likely to develop severe pneumonia, the Journal reported, and three times as likely to end up on a ventilator in an intensive-care unit.

The link between health and Neanderthal DNA has been suggested by other studies. A study published in June by the journal Molecular Biology and Evolution indicated a link between Neanderthal DNA and a genetic disorder known as Dupuytren's disease. And in March, a study published in Nature also found a connection between Neanderthal ancestry and an increased risk of an extreme immune response, or cytokine storm, from contracting COVID-19.

Elon Musk once reportedly hung up on a Tesla worker inside a burning factory and said 'don't bother me'

Pete Syme
Mon, September 18, 2023

Elon Musk.Christian Marquard/Getty Images

• Elon Musk once hung up on a Tesla worker who called from a burning factory, per the Daily Mail.

• The historian Niall Ferguson recounted how he met with the billionaire for drinks when the video call came.

• When the worker was unsure how important the fire was, Musk said: "Then don't bother me."

Elon Musk once hung up on a Tesla worker who video called him from inside a burning factory, according to a report in the Daily Mail.

The historian Niall Ferguson was writing for the outlet about his experiences meeting with Musk, comparing him to a modern-day Napoleon.

He included an anecdote where Musk and Ferguson met up for a drink in Menlo Park back in 2017.

Ferguson's 18-year-old son was about to travel to Africa and sought advice from the South Africa-born billionaire.

But the historian says Musk was "preoccupied," especially when a video call came through from one of his Tesla factories, which seemed to be on fire.

"Is it important?" Musk asked the worker, according to Ferguson.

And when the man in the apparently burning factory was unsure in his response, Musk snapped back: "Then don't bother me," and hung up.

In an X post responding to Ferguson's article, Musk did not deny the incident.

Although he did accuse Ferguson of embellishing the extent of his relationship with the billionaire, saying they had only met up six times over the past ten years. The article's headline describes Ferguson as a "friend and confidant" to Musk.

"The article misses the mark," Musk wrote on X.

Musk's impatience is also described in several episodes featured in Walter Isaacson's recent biography of the Tesla CEO.

One SpaceX engineer described being called back to work despite having drunk some wine, but they were fearful of facing Musk's wrath if they didn't show up. "I worried about getting pulled over for drunk driving, but that seemed less of a risk than ignoring Elon," he told Isaacson.

And last Christmas Eve, Musk spent the day moving servers at an X data center after threatening to fire an employee who said the job would take at least six months, rather than the 90 days he wanted.

Tesla did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.

Elon Musk mocked Ukraine's summer counteroffensive in a stinging post on X: 'So much death for so little'

Kwan Wei Kevin Tan
Sun, September 17, 2023

Elon Musk.Chesnot via Getty Images

• Elon Musk expressed his disappointment in Ukraine's summer counteroffensive in an X post on Sunday.

• "So much death for so little," Musk wrote in his post.

• The billionaire has been previously accused of pushing pro-Russian sentiments.

Elon Musk — who Ukrainian officials recently blasted for blocking an attack on Russia's Black Sea Fleet — derided the success of Ukraine's summer counteroffensive on Sunday.

"So much death for so little," Musk wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter, on Sunday.

Musk was responding to venture capitalist David Sacks' thread on the topic.

Sacks first started the thread on June 19, arguing that the counteroffensive "is failing to achieve any of its originally stated objectives" of rolling back Russia's territorial gains and kickstarting peace negotiations.

Sacks has been updating his thread frequently with articles on the subject. The September 17 post Musk was responding to appeared to be a map of Ukraine, with the caption: "UPDATE: "Ukrainian territorial gains from their much-vaunted counteroffensive [highlighted in blue] are so miniscule they can barely be seen on a map."

Musk, for his part, has weighed in many times on the war in Ukraine.

In October 2022, Musk posted a peace plan proposal on X. This plan involved Ukraine recognizing Russia's annexation of Crimea and "remaining neutral" by not joining NATO.

Musk's idea drew widespread condemnation from Ukrainian officials at the time, with Ukrainian diplomat Andrii Melnyk telling the billionaire to "fuck off." Anton Gerashchenko, an advisor to the minister of internal affairs in Ukraine, said Musk's pro-Russia stance made it seem like the Russians had hacked his social media account.

Musk also effectively sabotaged a Ukrainian attack on Russia's navy vessels last year when he refused to turn on access to the SpaceX-run Starlink satellites, per an excerpt from the Walter Isaacson-penned biography about Musk.

Ukraine launched its counteroffensive on Russia in June, per the Council on Foreign Relations. War analyst Jan Kallberg at the Center for European Policy Analysis said last month that the counteroffensive was making incremental but "substantial progress."

Representatives for Musk did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Insider sent outside regular business hours.

WOMEN, LIFE, FREEDOM

Activists in Europe mark the anniversary of Mahsa Amini's death in police custody in Iran

DANICA KIRKA

Updated Sat, September 16, 2023 

Demonstrators march in Parliament Square as they hold a banner, in London, Saturday, Sept. 16, 2023, as today marks the anniversary of the death of Mahsa Amini in Iran.

 (AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali)

LONDON (AP) — Hundreds gathered in central London on Saturday to mark the anniversary of the death of Mahsa Amini, the 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman who died in police custody in Iran last year, sparking worldwide protests against the country's conservative Islamic theocracy.

Chanting “Women! Life! Freedom!,'' the crowds held her portrait and rallied around the memory of a young woman who died on Sept. 16, 2022, after she was arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s mandatory headscarf law. Similar protests took place in Italy, Germany and France.

“We’re calling on everyone to remember those killed, but also continue the fight, because this fight has to go to the end. Mahsa Jina Amini and the many others cannot have died in vain,″ said Maryam Namazie, an Iranian human rights activist in the U.K. “We have to have a better society as the result of this huge, Herculean fight.″

In Iran, authorities sought to prevent the anniversary from reigniting the protests that gripped the country last year. Amini’s father was detained outside his home after the family indicated that they planned to gather at her grave for a traditional service of commemoration, the Kurdish rights group Hengaw said. People in downtown Tehran reported a heavy security presence, and security forces were seen in western Iran, where the Kurdish minority staged large protests last year.

Hengaw reported a widespread general strike in Kurdish areas on Saturday, circulating video and photos that appeared to show streets largely empty and shops shuttered. Human Rights Activists in Iran, another group that closely follows events within the country, also reported the general strike. There was no acknowledgement of the strike in state media.

Hengaw reported that a man was in critical condition after being shot by security forces near Saqqez, in the Kurdish region. The semi-official Fars news agency said that he was shot after ignoring orders to stop at a checkpoint and that his condition was stable.

Videos on social media purported to show tear gas being fired in Mashhad and Karaj, a satellite city of Tehran. The New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran also reported the tear gas being used. Iranian state media did not acknowledge any such incidents.

Amini, a Kurdish-Iranian woman from the western region, died three days after she was arrested by morality police, allegedly for violating laws that require women to cover their hair in public. While authorities said that she suffered a heart attack, Amini’s supporters said she was beaten by police and died as a result of her injuries.

Her death triggered protests that spread across the country and rapidly escalated into calls for the overthrow of Iran’s four-decade-old Islamic theocracy.

Authorities responded with a violent crackdown in which more than 500 people were killed and in excess of 22,000 others were detained, according to rights groups. The demonstrations largely died down early this year, but there are still widespread signs of discontent. For several months, women could be seen openly flaunting the headscarf rule in Tehran and other cities, prompting a renewed crackdown over the summer.

Activists around the world sought to renew the protests on the anniversary of Amini’s death.

On Saturday, about 100 protesters gathered in front of the Iranian Embassy in Rome under the “Women, life, freedom,” banner.

“Now it is important that all the world start again to demonstrate in the streets, because what we want is to isolate this regime and in particular we want to push all the states not to have political and economic agreements with Iran,” protester Lucia Massi said.

In Paris, Mayor Anne Hidalgo announced that a garden in the French capital now carried Amini's name. The mayor called Amini an Iranian resistance hero and said Paris “honors her memory and her battle, as well as those of women who fight for their freedom in Iran and elsewhere.”

The Villemin Garden that now also bears Amini’s name is in Paris' 10th district, next to a canal with popular boat tours for tourists.

Iran blamed last year’s protests on the United States and other foreign powers, without providing evidence, and has since tried to downplay the unrest even as it moves to prevent any resurgence.

The protests were partly fueled by the widespread economic pain Iranians have suffered since then-President Donald Trump withdrew from a nuclear deal with world powers and reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran. But that suffering also may have made it difficult to sustain prolonged demonstrations, as many Iranians struggle to make ends meet.

President Joe Biden issued a lengthy statement on Friday acknowledging the anniversary of Amini’s death, and the United States announced new sanctions on Iranian officials and entities. U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly also noted the anniversary and imposed new sanctions on Iranian officials.

Soheila Sokhanvari, an Iranian-British artist, moved to the U.K. to study a year before the 1979 revolution that brought Iran’s conservative Islamic leaders to power. She was in London preparing for a solo exhibition on pre-revolutionary feminist icons last year when she heard about Amini’s death.

The protests that followed marked the first time the world has seen “a revolution which is instigated by women,” she told The Associated Press earlier this month.

“But I think what’s really important about this protest is that Iranian men, for the first time in the history of Iran, they’re actually standing with women and they’re supporting the women and they’re showing respect for the women,” she said. “That’s very original and it’s never happened in the history of Iran.”

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Kwiyeon Ha in London, Paolo Santalucia in Rome, John Leicester in Le Pecq, France, and Emily Schultheis in Berlin, contributed to this report.

Sporadic protests continue in Iran as Mahsa Amini anniversary passes

Reuters
Sun, September 17, 2023 

FILE PHOTO: Protest over the death of Mahsa Amini, in Tehran

DUBAI (Reuters) - Sporadic protests continued in Iran on Sunday amid a widespread crackdown by security forces a year after a young Kurdish woman's death in custody set off some of the worst political unrest in four decades.

The death on Sept. 16 last year of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman arrested by the morality police for allegedly flouting mandatory dress codes, triggered months of some of the biggest protests against the Islamic Republic's Shi'ite clerical rule ever seen and drew international condemnation.

On Saturday, Mahsa's father, Amjad Amini, was arrested briefly and warned against marking the anniversary of his daughter's death, the Kurdistan Human Rights Network said, and the family was not able to hold a planned vigil at her grave.

A social media video on Sunday showed protesters in the western city of Hamadan, clapping and shouting "Death to Islamic Republic", while another video showed protesters running away after apparent shooting by security forces. Reuters could not immediately authenticate the videos.

Following the publication of the videos, the semi-official Tasnim agency carried a video appearing to show that the streets of Hamadan were calm.

Rights groups, including the activist HRANA news agency, reported that a number of people were arrested in the Kurdish cities of Saqez and Sanandaj. State media reported detentions of dozens of "terrorists" including an individual allegedly planning a suicide attack.

Meanwhile, authorities said unidentified gunmen in southern Iran on Saturday opened fire on the Basij paramilitary volunteer militia, which has played a prominent role in the crackdown, killing one and wounding three. It was not immediately clear if the incident was linked to the current unrest.

Iran's intelligence minister warned that Iran may take unspecified action against overseas media which Tehran accuses of fomenting violent unrest in the country.

Iran International, a London-based television station critical of the Iranian government, in February said it was moving its live broadcasting studios to the United States following threats it faced in Britain.

"(Iran) International is a terrorist network, and we will take action wherever and whenever we recognise any terrorist act," the semi-official news agency Fars quoted the minister, Esmail Khatib, as saying.

AMINI 'INSPIRED A MOVEMENT'

In the demonstrations that followed Amini's death more than 500 people, including 71 minors, were killed, hundreds injured and thousands arrested, rights groups said. Iran carried out seven executions linked to the unrest.

U.S. President Joe Biden in a statement on Friday said Amini "inspired a historic movement ... that has impacted Iran and influenced people across the globe." Hundreds of Amini's supporters rallied in front of the White House on Saturday.

Iran's Foreign Ministry rejected as "double standards and lies" Western expressions of support for women's rights in Iran.

In a report last month, Amnesty International said Iranian authorities "have been subjecting victims' families to arbitrary arrest and detention, imposing cruel restrictions on peaceful gatherings at grave sites, and destroying victims' gravestones".

Many journalists, lawyers, activists, students, academics, artists, public figures and members of ethnic minorities accused of links with the protest wave, as well as relatives of protesters killed in the unrest, have been arrested, summoned, threatened or fired from jobs in the past few weeks, according to Iranian and Western human rights groups.

Iran blames the unrest on its Western foes and rejects criticism of its legal system, saying it is based on a lack of understanding by rights groups of its Islamic laws.

(Reporting by Dubai newsroom; Editing by Conor Humphries)