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What was agreed on climate change at COP28 in Dubai?BUT WERE AFRAID TO ASK
Mark Poynting - Climate and environment researcher, BBC News
Wed, December 13, 2023
A tram with the words 'hello Dubai' passes in front of the Dubai skyline.
World leaders have reached a new agreement to tackle climate change at a big UN meeting in Dubai.
The summit followed a year of extreme weather events in which many climate records were broken.
What was COP28 and where was it?
COP28 was the 28th annual United Nations (UN) climate meeting, where governments discuss how to limit and prepare for future climate change.
The summit took place in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It was scheduled to last from 30 November to 12 December 2023, but overran by a day.
A really simple guide to climate change
Four ways climate change affects extreme weather
What does COP stand for?
COP stands for "Conference of the Parties", where the "parties" are the countries that signed up to the original UN climate agreement in 1992.
Why was holding COP28 in Dubai controversial?
The UAE is one of the world's top 10 oil-producing nations.
It appointed Sultan al-Jaber, chief executive of the state-owned oil company, as COP28 president.
Sultan al-Jaber's appointment was widely criticised
Oil - like gas and coal - is a fossil fuel. These are the main causes of climate change because they release planet-warming greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide when burned for energy.
Mr Jaber's oil company is expected to rapidly expand production this decade.
Documents leaked to the BBC also suggested the UAE planned to use its role as COP28 host to strike new oil and gas deals.
Mr Jaber previously argued that he was uniquely well-placed to push for action from the oil and gas industry.
He said that as chairman of renewable energy firm Masdar, he had overseen the expansion of clean technologies like wind and solar power.
What was agreed at COP28 about fossil fuels?
For the first time, countries agreed on the need to "transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems".
The text calls for this to be done "in a just, orderly and equitable manner". This is seen as an important recognition that richer countries are expected to move away from coal, oil and gas more quickly.
However, the deal doesn't compel countries to take action, and no timescale is specified.
The COP28 deal was the first to note the need to move away from the fossil fuels that drive global warming
Many groups - including the US, UK, EU and some of the nations which are most vulnerable to climate change - had wanted a more ambitious commitment to "phase out" fossil fuels.
The agreement includes global targets to triple the capacity of renewable energy like wind and solar power, and to double the rate of energy efficiency improvements, both by 2030.
It also calls on countries to accelerate low- and zero-emission technologies like carbon capture and storage.
Examining the impact of COP28's big step forward
How is my country doing tackling climate change?
Is the UK on track to meet its climate targets?
Why was COP28 so important?
COP28 came at a crucial time for the key target to limit long-term global temperature rises to 1.5C.
This was agreed by nearly 200 countries at COP21, which was held in Paris in 2015.
The Paris commitment is crucial to avoid the most damaging impacts of climate change, according to the UN's climate body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
However, before the final deal was agreed at COP28, there were warnings that the world is actually on track for around 2.7C of warming by 2100.
Recent progress had not been in line with what was required, the UN said, leaving a "rapidly narrowing" window for action to keep the 1.5C limit in reach.
Five climate change solutions under the spotlight at COP28
What you can do to reduce carbon emissions
Who went to COP28?
Around 200 nations were represented in the talks.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi were among the world leaders to attend the beginning of the summit.
US President Joe Biden and China's Xi Jinping did not go, but both countries were heavily represented.
King Charles addresses the COP28 summit in Dubai in December 2023
King Charles gave the opening address, warning that humans were carrying out a "vast, frightening experiment" on the planet.
Nearly 100,000 politicians, diplomats, journalists and campaigners registered for the meeting, making it the biggest climate conference ever held.
This included around 2,400 people connected to the coal, oil and gas industries, which underlined concern about the influence of fossil fuel groups.
Will richer countries pay for climate change?
As COP28 got under way, it was announced that the "loss and damage" fund could start handing out money.
The fund was agreed at COP27. The idea is that richer countries - historically the main contributors to warming - pay poorer countries already facing the effects of climate change.
South Sudan is one many developing countries ravaged by the effects of climate change
But the details had remained deeply contested, with wealthy countries like the US reluctant to accept liability for past emissions.
A relatively small amount of money has been pledged so far, but getting the fund up and running is seen as a crucial step in building trust between richer and poorer countries.
Separately, in 2009, developed countries pledged to give $100bn (£80bn) a year to developing countries by 2020, to help them reduce emissions and prepare for climate change.
The target was missed in 2020, but is "likely" to have been met in 2022, according to preliminary data.
The COP28 agreement highlights "the growing gap" between the needs of developing countries and the money provided to cut emissions - but there is no requirement for developed countries to provide more support.
Will COP28 make any difference?
Critics of previous COPs, including campaigner Greta Thunberg, accuse the summits of "greenwashing" - that is, letting countries and businesses promote their climate credentials without actually making the changes needed.
But the summits do offer the potential for global agreements that go beyond national measures.
For example, the 1.5C warming limit, agreed at COP21, has driven "near-universal climate action", according to the UN.
This has helped bring down the level of warming the world can expect - even though the world is still not acting at anywhere near the pace needed to achieve the Paris goals.
Ultimately, the success of COP28 will be determined by the changes the world puts into practice in the years ahead.
Additional reporting by Esme Stallard.
Reaction to the final COP28 climate deal
Reuters
Updated Wed, December 13, 2023
DUBAI (Reuters) - The COP28 climate summit adopted a final deal on Wednesday that for the first time calls on nations to transition away from fossil fuels to avert the worst impacts of climate change.
Here are some reactions to the deal:
U.S. special climate envoy John Kerry:
"I am in awe of the spirit of cooperation that has brought everybody together."
Denmark's Minister for Climate and Energy Dan Jorgensen:
"We're standing here in an oil country, surrounded by oil countries, and we made the decision saying let's move away from oil and gas."
Samoa representative Anne Rasmussen on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States:
"We didn't want to interrupt the standing ovation when we came into the room, but we are a little confused about what happened. It seems that you just get on with the decisions and the small island developing states were not in the room."
"We have come to the conclusion that the course correction that is needed has not been secured. We have made an incremental advancement over business as usual, when what we really need is an exponential step change in our actions."
Bangladesh climate envoy Saber Hossain Chowdhury:
"Adaptation is really a life and death issue ... We cannot compromise on adaptation; we cannot compromise on lives and livelihoods."
Canadian Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault:
"COP28 reached a historic agreement ... It provides opportunities for near term action and pushes for a secure, affordable, 1.5C compatible and clean transition. The text has breakthrough commitments on renewable energy, energy efficiency, and the transition away from fossil fuels."
China's vice environment minister, Zhao Yingmin:
"Developed countries have unshirkable historical responsibilities for climate change."
Marshall Islands' head of delegation, John Silk:
"I came here from my home in the islands to work with you all to solve the greatest challenge of our generation. I came here to build a canoe together for my country. Instead we have built a canoe with a weak and leaky hull, full of holes. Instead we have put it in the water."
Singapore's environment minister, Grace Fu
"I think we have to take the outcome as part of a deal that has been negotiated all round."
"Very often in a negotiation, parties are too hunkered down in their respective positions. And words like 'phase out' became a problem. ... The important part is to look at the content and the intentions."
Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore:
"The decision at COP28 to finally recognize that the climate crisis is, at its heart, a fossil fuel crisis is an important milestone. But it is also the bare minimum we need and is long overdue. The influence of petrostates is still evident in the half measures and loopholes included in the final agreement."
"Whether this is a turning point that truly marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era depends on the actions that come next and the mobilization of finance required to achieve them."
A source familiar with Saudi Arabia's position:
The deal is "a menu where every country can follow its own pathway" and "shows the various tracks that will allow us to maintain the objective of 1.5 (degrees) in accordance with the characteristics of every nation and in the context of sustainable development."
"We must use every opportunity to reduce emissions regardless of the source. We must use all technologies to this effect."
(Reporting by William James, Elizabeth Piper, Valerie Volcovici, Gloria Dickie, Katy Daigle, David Stanway, Simon Jessop; Maha El Dahan, editing by Christina Fincher and Louise Heavens)
Your Cop28 questions answered
Louise Boyle and Katie Hawkinson
Wed, December 13, 2023
For the last several days, The Independent’s Senior Climate Correspondent Louise Boyle has reported from Dubai on the biggest climate event of the year: Cop28.
The 28th annual Cop — or Conference of the Parties — took place in Dubai, UAE, over two weeks and came to an end on 13 December. Two-hundred countries and an estimated 70,000 attendees took part in the crucial summit on climate change.
For Ms Boyle, one of the best moments of the conference was spending the day with Marshall Islands’ climate envoy, Tina Stege, whose nation’s survival is on the line due to the climate crisis.
She also reported on the historic deal struck by delegates on 13 December — a day after the conference was set to end — following 24 hours of fraught negotiations. Major points in the deal include tripling renewable energy capacity worldwide by 2030 and transitioning away from fossil fuels in a “just, orderly and equitable manner” to achieve net zero by 2050, Ms Boyle reported.
As she watched the conference unfold, Ms Boyle hosted an Ask Me Anything on Reddit. In case you missed it, here are the top questions, and Ms Boyle’s replies:
There are incredible financial incentives to continue “business as usual” regarding fossil fuels extraction. Why isn’t Cop28 a waste of time?
One-hundred per cent – the fossil fuel industry made in excess of $200bn in profits last year — and they were helped along by $7 trillion in government subsidies.
But considering the political and financial clout of the fossil fuel industry at the national level, particularly when it comes to least developed and vulnerable places, do we not benefit from banding together to try to figure a path through it?
With record-breaking amount of private jets flying in to attend the conference do you feel the attendees know why they’re there?
The private jets – yep, gross. We know the one per cent of the one per cent are responsible for emissions far beyond much of the rest of the world. See the work Oxfam has done here.
Wealth inequality is one of the parts of the climate crisis that deserves much, much more attention. But, and this is far from a defence of billionaires, it’s easy to point in news articles at X person doing X thing. We need to focus on the systemic – why are we allowing private jets in the first place? Why are those who have the most taxed the least? I could go on...
Which country, do you think, is doing the most to combat climate change?
Great question. Some have already reached net-zero: Gabon, Bhutan and Panama, to name a few. Others have greater mountains to climb, as they were bigger emitters in the first place. Take a look at those in the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance – places like Denmark, Ireland, and several other European countries – who are making strides.
This year marks the first ‘global stocktake’ – the first time countries are taking an accounting of where they are at in reducing emissions, a requirement of the Paris Agreement. Let’s see where that ends up. It’s one thing to talk a big game, but the proof will be in the numbers.
Overall, though, we know that emissions are still rising. Moving away from countries, we should look at the private sector, particularly the large oil companies, to see just how real their emissions reduction plans are. Accountability and reporting are going to be the watchwords of the next six years, especially if we are going to hit the goal of cutting emissions by around 40 per cent.
Did you find any of the participants to be cynical about prospects for solving climate change, given the comments by the host and the location of the conference?
Its true, the UAE have said some problematic things, and it’s hard to be in a place like Dubai and not see an entire city built on oil wealth. Then again, two years ago we were in Glasgow (my hometown!) and that’s also a city (along with the UK at large) that has historically built its wealth on fossil fuels. The developed world as a whole has to take responsibility for our emissions – it’s just the right thing to do.
But the UAE have also shepherded through an agreement here on fossil fuels for the first time, that’s no small achievement. Maybe it took an oil country to do so? I can’t speak to everyone but I spent time with the Marshall Islands delegation earlier this week, and they would be a place that had every right to be cynical, considering how much damage they are facing, and how little they have done to cause it. But no one came across as cynical to me – they just were working hard to make sure they do the best for everyone in their country, and hoping that others are in good faith when they say they will act.
Let’s hope they follow through in doing so.
Questions and answers have been edited for grammar and style.
COP28 nations strike historic fossil fuel deal
Mark Poynting - Climate and environment researcher, BBC News
Wed, December 13, 2023
A tram with the words 'hello Dubai' passes in front of the Dubai skyline.
World leaders have reached a new agreement to tackle climate change at a big UN meeting in Dubai.
The summit followed a year of extreme weather events in which many climate records were broken.
What was COP28 and where was it?
COP28 was the 28th annual United Nations (UN) climate meeting, where governments discuss how to limit and prepare for future climate change.
The summit took place in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It was scheduled to last from 30 November to 12 December 2023, but overran by a day.
A really simple guide to climate change
Four ways climate change affects extreme weather
What does COP stand for?
COP stands for "Conference of the Parties", where the "parties" are the countries that signed up to the original UN climate agreement in 1992.
Why was holding COP28 in Dubai controversial?
The UAE is one of the world's top 10 oil-producing nations.
It appointed Sultan al-Jaber, chief executive of the state-owned oil company, as COP28 president.
Sultan al-Jaber's appointment was widely criticised
Oil - like gas and coal - is a fossil fuel. These are the main causes of climate change because they release planet-warming greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide when burned for energy.
Mr Jaber's oil company is expected to rapidly expand production this decade.
Documents leaked to the BBC also suggested the UAE planned to use its role as COP28 host to strike new oil and gas deals.
Mr Jaber previously argued that he was uniquely well-placed to push for action from the oil and gas industry.
He said that as chairman of renewable energy firm Masdar, he had overseen the expansion of clean technologies like wind and solar power.
What was agreed at COP28 about fossil fuels?
For the first time, countries agreed on the need to "transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems".
The text calls for this to be done "in a just, orderly and equitable manner". This is seen as an important recognition that richer countries are expected to move away from coal, oil and gas more quickly.
However, the deal doesn't compel countries to take action, and no timescale is specified.
The COP28 deal was the first to note the need to move away from the fossil fuels that drive global warming
Many groups - including the US, UK, EU and some of the nations which are most vulnerable to climate change - had wanted a more ambitious commitment to "phase out" fossil fuels.
The agreement includes global targets to triple the capacity of renewable energy like wind and solar power, and to double the rate of energy efficiency improvements, both by 2030.
It also calls on countries to accelerate low- and zero-emission technologies like carbon capture and storage.
Examining the impact of COP28's big step forward
How is my country doing tackling climate change?
Is the UK on track to meet its climate targets?
Why was COP28 so important?
COP28 came at a crucial time for the key target to limit long-term global temperature rises to 1.5C.
This was agreed by nearly 200 countries at COP21, which was held in Paris in 2015.
The Paris commitment is crucial to avoid the most damaging impacts of climate change, according to the UN's climate body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
However, before the final deal was agreed at COP28, there were warnings that the world is actually on track for around 2.7C of warming by 2100.
Recent progress had not been in line with what was required, the UN said, leaving a "rapidly narrowing" window for action to keep the 1.5C limit in reach.
Five climate change solutions under the spotlight at COP28
What you can do to reduce carbon emissions
Who went to COP28?
Around 200 nations were represented in the talks.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi were among the world leaders to attend the beginning of the summit.
US President Joe Biden and China's Xi Jinping did not go, but both countries were heavily represented.
King Charles addresses the COP28 summit in Dubai in December 2023
King Charles gave the opening address, warning that humans were carrying out a "vast, frightening experiment" on the planet.
Nearly 100,000 politicians, diplomats, journalists and campaigners registered for the meeting, making it the biggest climate conference ever held.
This included around 2,400 people connected to the coal, oil and gas industries, which underlined concern about the influence of fossil fuel groups.
Will richer countries pay for climate change?
As COP28 got under way, it was announced that the "loss and damage" fund could start handing out money.
The fund was agreed at COP27. The idea is that richer countries - historically the main contributors to warming - pay poorer countries already facing the effects of climate change.
South Sudan is one many developing countries ravaged by the effects of climate change
But the details had remained deeply contested, with wealthy countries like the US reluctant to accept liability for past emissions.
A relatively small amount of money has been pledged so far, but getting the fund up and running is seen as a crucial step in building trust between richer and poorer countries.
Separately, in 2009, developed countries pledged to give $100bn (£80bn) a year to developing countries by 2020, to help them reduce emissions and prepare for climate change.
The target was missed in 2020, but is "likely" to have been met in 2022, according to preliminary data.
The COP28 agreement highlights "the growing gap" between the needs of developing countries and the money provided to cut emissions - but there is no requirement for developed countries to provide more support.
Will COP28 make any difference?
Critics of previous COPs, including campaigner Greta Thunberg, accuse the summits of "greenwashing" - that is, letting countries and businesses promote their climate credentials without actually making the changes needed.
But the summits do offer the potential for global agreements that go beyond national measures.
For example, the 1.5C warming limit, agreed at COP21, has driven "near-universal climate action", according to the UN.
This has helped bring down the level of warming the world can expect - even though the world is still not acting at anywhere near the pace needed to achieve the Paris goals.
Ultimately, the success of COP28 will be determined by the changes the world puts into practice in the years ahead.
Additional reporting by Esme Stallard.
Reaction to the final COP28 climate deal
Reuters
Updated Wed, December 13, 2023
DUBAI (Reuters) - The COP28 climate summit adopted a final deal on Wednesday that for the first time calls on nations to transition away from fossil fuels to avert the worst impacts of climate change.
Here are some reactions to the deal:
U.S. special climate envoy John Kerry:
"I am in awe of the spirit of cooperation that has brought everybody together."
Denmark's Minister for Climate and Energy Dan Jorgensen:
"We're standing here in an oil country, surrounded by oil countries, and we made the decision saying let's move away from oil and gas."
Samoa representative Anne Rasmussen on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States:
"We didn't want to interrupt the standing ovation when we came into the room, but we are a little confused about what happened. It seems that you just get on with the decisions and the small island developing states were not in the room."
"We have come to the conclusion that the course correction that is needed has not been secured. We have made an incremental advancement over business as usual, when what we really need is an exponential step change in our actions."
Bangladesh climate envoy Saber Hossain Chowdhury:
"Adaptation is really a life and death issue ... We cannot compromise on adaptation; we cannot compromise on lives and livelihoods."
Canadian Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault:
"COP28 reached a historic agreement ... It provides opportunities for near term action and pushes for a secure, affordable, 1.5C compatible and clean transition. The text has breakthrough commitments on renewable energy, energy efficiency, and the transition away from fossil fuels."
China's vice environment minister, Zhao Yingmin:
"Developed countries have unshirkable historical responsibilities for climate change."
Marshall Islands' head of delegation, John Silk:
"I came here from my home in the islands to work with you all to solve the greatest challenge of our generation. I came here to build a canoe together for my country. Instead we have built a canoe with a weak and leaky hull, full of holes. Instead we have put it in the water."
Singapore's environment minister, Grace Fu
"I think we have to take the outcome as part of a deal that has been negotiated all round."
"Very often in a negotiation, parties are too hunkered down in their respective positions. And words like 'phase out' became a problem. ... The important part is to look at the content and the intentions."
Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore:
"The decision at COP28 to finally recognize that the climate crisis is, at its heart, a fossil fuel crisis is an important milestone. But it is also the bare minimum we need and is long overdue. The influence of petrostates is still evident in the half measures and loopholes included in the final agreement."
"Whether this is a turning point that truly marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era depends on the actions that come next and the mobilization of finance required to achieve them."
A source familiar with Saudi Arabia's position:
The deal is "a menu where every country can follow its own pathway" and "shows the various tracks that will allow us to maintain the objective of 1.5 (degrees) in accordance with the characteristics of every nation and in the context of sustainable development."
"We must use every opportunity to reduce emissions regardless of the source. We must use all technologies to this effect."
(Reporting by William James, Elizabeth Piper, Valerie Volcovici, Gloria Dickie, Katy Daigle, David Stanway, Simon Jessop; Maha El Dahan, editing by Christina Fincher and Louise Heavens)
Your Cop28 questions answered
Louise Boyle and Katie Hawkinson
Wed, December 13, 2023
For the last several days, The Independent’s Senior Climate Correspondent Louise Boyle has reported from Dubai on the biggest climate event of the year: Cop28.
The 28th annual Cop — or Conference of the Parties — took place in Dubai, UAE, over two weeks and came to an end on 13 December. Two-hundred countries and an estimated 70,000 attendees took part in the crucial summit on climate change.
For Ms Boyle, one of the best moments of the conference was spending the day with Marshall Islands’ climate envoy, Tina Stege, whose nation’s survival is on the line due to the climate crisis.
She also reported on the historic deal struck by delegates on 13 December — a day after the conference was set to end — following 24 hours of fraught negotiations. Major points in the deal include tripling renewable energy capacity worldwide by 2030 and transitioning away from fossil fuels in a “just, orderly and equitable manner” to achieve net zero by 2050, Ms Boyle reported.
As she watched the conference unfold, Ms Boyle hosted an Ask Me Anything on Reddit. In case you missed it, here are the top questions, and Ms Boyle’s replies:
There are incredible financial incentives to continue “business as usual” regarding fossil fuels extraction. Why isn’t Cop28 a waste of time?
One-hundred per cent – the fossil fuel industry made in excess of $200bn in profits last year — and they were helped along by $7 trillion in government subsidies.
But considering the political and financial clout of the fossil fuel industry at the national level, particularly when it comes to least developed and vulnerable places, do we not benefit from banding together to try to figure a path through it?
With record-breaking amount of private jets flying in to attend the conference do you feel the attendees know why they’re there?
The private jets – yep, gross. We know the one per cent of the one per cent are responsible for emissions far beyond much of the rest of the world. See the work Oxfam has done here.
Wealth inequality is one of the parts of the climate crisis that deserves much, much more attention. But, and this is far from a defence of billionaires, it’s easy to point in news articles at X person doing X thing. We need to focus on the systemic – why are we allowing private jets in the first place? Why are those who have the most taxed the least? I could go on...
Which country, do you think, is doing the most to combat climate change?
Great question. Some have already reached net-zero: Gabon, Bhutan and Panama, to name a few. Others have greater mountains to climb, as they were bigger emitters in the first place. Take a look at those in the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance – places like Denmark, Ireland, and several other European countries – who are making strides.
This year marks the first ‘global stocktake’ – the first time countries are taking an accounting of where they are at in reducing emissions, a requirement of the Paris Agreement. Let’s see where that ends up. It’s one thing to talk a big game, but the proof will be in the numbers.
Overall, though, we know that emissions are still rising. Moving away from countries, we should look at the private sector, particularly the large oil companies, to see just how real their emissions reduction plans are. Accountability and reporting are going to be the watchwords of the next six years, especially if we are going to hit the goal of cutting emissions by around 40 per cent.
Did you find any of the participants to be cynical about prospects for solving climate change, given the comments by the host and the location of the conference?
Its true, the UAE have said some problematic things, and it’s hard to be in a place like Dubai and not see an entire city built on oil wealth. Then again, two years ago we were in Glasgow (my hometown!) and that’s also a city (along with the UK at large) that has historically built its wealth on fossil fuels. The developed world as a whole has to take responsibility for our emissions – it’s just the right thing to do.
But the UAE have also shepherded through an agreement here on fossil fuels for the first time, that’s no small achievement. Maybe it took an oil country to do so? I can’t speak to everyone but I spent time with the Marshall Islands delegation earlier this week, and they would be a place that had every right to be cynical, considering how much damage they are facing, and how little they have done to cause it. But no one came across as cynical to me – they just were working hard to make sure they do the best for everyone in their country, and hoping that others are in good faith when they say they will act.
Let’s hope they follow through in doing so.
Questions and answers have been edited for grammar and style.
COP28 nations strike historic fossil fuel deal
Reuters Videos
Updated Wed, December 13, 2023
STORY: COP28 climate summit nations on Wednesday agreed to a deal to "transition away" from fossil fuels, which scientists say is the last best hope to avert climate catastrophe.
The historic deal was struck by nearly 200 countries gathered for the conference.
It marks the first time in three decades of COP climate summits that nations have agreed on a concerted move away from oil, gas and coal, which account for about 80% of global energy.
The future role of fossil fuels has by far been the most contentious issue at the two-week COP28 summit in Dubai.
Negotiations had faced resistance from members of the OPEC oil producer group and its allies, especially Saudi Arabia, according to sources familiar with the discussions.
And an earlier draft was criticized by scores of countries for failing to call for a “phase-out” of fossil fuels.
The new draft came after overtime negotiations at the conference stretched late into the early hours of Wednesday morning.
The deal calls for "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner... so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science."
It also calls for a global tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030, speeding up efforts to reduce coal, and accelerating technologies such as carbon capture and storage that can clean up sectors difficult to decarbonize.
Deals struck at UN climate summits must be passed by consensus, at which point individual countries are responsible for executing on the agreements.
Updated Wed, December 13, 2023
STORY: COP28 climate summit nations on Wednesday agreed to a deal to "transition away" from fossil fuels, which scientists say is the last best hope to avert climate catastrophe.
The historic deal was struck by nearly 200 countries gathered for the conference.
It marks the first time in three decades of COP climate summits that nations have agreed on a concerted move away from oil, gas and coal, which account for about 80% of global energy.
The future role of fossil fuels has by far been the most contentious issue at the two-week COP28 summit in Dubai.
Negotiations had faced resistance from members of the OPEC oil producer group and its allies, especially Saudi Arabia, according to sources familiar with the discussions.
And an earlier draft was criticized by scores of countries for failing to call for a “phase-out” of fossil fuels.
The new draft came after overtime negotiations at the conference stretched late into the early hours of Wednesday morning.
The deal calls for "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner... so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science."
It also calls for a global tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030, speeding up efforts to reduce coal, and accelerating technologies such as carbon capture and storage that can clean up sectors difficult to decarbonize.
Deals struck at UN climate summits must be passed by consensus, at which point individual countries are responsible for executing on the agreements.
COP28 nets first-ever global climate deal for transition away from fossil fuels
Chris Oberholtz
Wed, December 13, 2023
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – Representatives from nearly 200 countries delivered a resounding message of global solidarity to reduce fossil fuel usage after the United Nations' yearly climate conference.
The 28th meeting of world leaders, known as the Conference of the Parties (COP), was held for two weeks to address climate change. The meeting came at a crucial time as U.N. reports show the world is not on track to reach critical goals in the landmark Paris Agreement.
"Whilst we didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the beginning of the end," UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said in his closing speech Wednesday. "Now all governments and businesses need to turn these pledges into real-economy outcomes, without delay."
COP28 president Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber (center) applauds among other officials before a plenary session during the United Nations climate summit in Dubai on December 13, 2023.
The world’s first ‘global stocktake’ pact by leaders aims to limit the increase in global temperature to below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the decade. This comes as 2023 is on track to be the warmest year on record, with fears that an El Niño extending into 2024 could lead to the release of more heat.
"For the first time, there is a recognition of the need to transition away from fossil fuels – after many years in which the discussion of this issue was blocked," U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said.
Countries can use the "global stocktake" from COP28 – including every element under negotiation – to develop stronger climate action plans due by 2025. The global stocktake includes every element that was under negotiation.
The stocktake acknowledges that scientists recommend cutting global greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels, to limit global warming to 1.5°C. However, the UN notes that countries are not on track to meet their goals in the Paris Agreement.
INCREASING DROUGHTS ‘AN UNPRECEDENTED EMERGENCY ON A PLANETARY SCALE,’ UN WARNS
Countries were also called upon to take steps towards tripling the capacity of renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency improvements on a global scale by 2030.
Environmental activists hold up placards during a demonstration outside the headquarters of BP (formerly British Petroleum) in central London on December 9, 2023, gathering in solidarity with people on the frontlines of the climate crisis.
Efforts will be made to speed up the phase-down of coal power, phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, and transition to renewable energy in an equitable manner. Developed countries will take the lead.
Countries are urged to submit ambitious, comprehensive greenhouse gas reduction plans in line with the 1.5°C limit by 2025.
Editorial: After COP28, let's make this the 'beginning of the end' of fossil fuels
The Times Editorial Board
Wed, December 13, 2023
COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber, second from left, claps at the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. (Kamran Jebreili / Associated Press)
It took nearly three decades, but world leaders this week finally acknowledged the obvious: There is no way to slow climate change without winding down fossil fuels.
The agreement reached Wednesday by nearly 200 nations at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai is something of a breakthrough. For the first time, world leaders called for moving away from fossil fuels in energy systems.
It’s easy to criticize this deal, which followed two weeks of tough negotiations, as weak and insufficient. It is nonbinding and full of caveats and loopholes. It includes support for carbon capture technology and “transitional fuels,” code for natural gas, that would enable the continued burning of planet-warming hydrocarbons.
It calls for "transitioning away" from fossil fuels, rather than phasing out, which many entities, including the United States, the European Union and vulnerable island states, were pushing for. The weaker language is the reflection of heavy influence from polluting industries, OPEC and oil-rich nations that lobbied fiercely against targeting fossil fuels.
Read more: Editorial: On climate change, world leaders are saying one thing and doing another
But the agreement is a milestone nonetheless. There is now a baseline global consensus on the need to move beyond fossil fuels.
Whether this deal truly signals the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era, as U.N. officials have said, depends entirely on what steps countries take next to scale up clean, renewable energy and hasten the demise of planet-warming coal, oil and gas.
Now governments must quickly take action to avoid a disastrous future, including the collapse of ecosystems and mounting human suffering from worsening storms, fires, heat waves, floods and other climate-fueled disasters.
This will be a particular challenge for the U.S., which is the world’s top oil producer and is pumping out record amounts even as the planet records its hottest year. Oil and gas companies are doubling down on fossil fuels with big acquisitions and expansion plans, while using their record profits to attack, delay and undermine climate solutions including renewable energy and electric vehicles.
Read more: Commentary: Bird names shouldn’t honor bigots and enslavers — or anyone
But there are also signs of hope. The historic clean energy investments under the Inflation Reduction Act are beginning to transform the U.S. economy. In California, 1 in 4 new cars sold are now zero-emission and Los Angeles officials last year banned new oil drilling and will phase out existing wells.
Perhaps future generations will look back on 2023 as a turning point when the world’s leaders — hosted by a petroleum company executive in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates, of all places — changed course and finally got on a path toward ending fossil fuels that endanger our planet and the life it sustains.
But it's up to all of us to hold our government accountable for delivering on these words and taking all necessary actions to close the door on the fossil fuel era.
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
Nearly 200 countries agreed to a historic climate deal. Here’s what’s included — and what’s missing
Hannah Murdock
Wed, December 13, 2023
United Nations Climate Chief Simon Stiell, left, and COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber pose for photos at the end of the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit, Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. | Kamran Jebreili, Associated Press
Nearly 200 countries agreed Wednesday to a historic climate deal that calls for a global transition away from fossil fuels.
Following days of negotiations, the U.N. climate summit in Dubai agreed on a new deal that includes its first ever call to move away from the use of fossil fuels.
“We have language on fossil fuel in our final agreement for the first time ever,” COP28 president Sultan al-Jaber said.
The deal, notably, does not include a global “phase out” of fossil fuels, as nearly 100 countries called for in a joint statement. Rather, the deal calls on countries to “transition away” from fossil fuels, which some critics are calling a loophole that will allow countries to continue drilling and contributing to climate change.
Below is a breakdown of what is included in the climate deal and what’s missing:
What’s included in the COP28 deal?
The deal calls on nations to:
Triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030.
Double energy efficiency improvements at a global scale by 2030.
Accelerate efforts toward the phase-down of unabated coal power.
Accelerate efforts globally toward net zero emission energy systems, utilizing zero- and low-carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century.
Transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050.
Accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies.
Reduce non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030.
Reduce emissions from road transport.
Phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.
What’s missing from the COP28 deal?
Some critics of the deal say that it doesn’t go far enough in cutting back on fossil fuels.
“The problem with the text is that it still includes cavernous loopholes that allow the United States and other fossil fuel producing countries to keep going on their expansion of fossil fuels,” Center for Biological Diversity energy justice director Jean Su told The Associated Press. “There’s a pretty deadly, fatal flaw in the text, which allows for transitional fuels to continue.”
What’s more, the pact does not outlaw the construction of new coal-burning power plants or include “commitments to help finance poorer nations’ energy transitions,” The New York Times reported.
Related
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“The finance and equity provisions ... are seriously insufficient and must be improved in the time ahead in order to ensure low- and middle-income countries can transition to clean energy and close the energy poverty gap,” Rachel Cleetus, policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists, told Reuters.
Takeaways from COP28: What does the climate deal say?
Ella Nilsen and Laura Paddison, CNN
Wed, December 13, 2023
Nearly 200 countries agreed to a new climate deal at the COP28 talks in Dubai on Wednesday, after two weeks of negotiations characterized by controversy and bitter divisions over the future of fossil fuels.
The decision has been called historic, with some experts declaring that it signals the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. Others say it’s undermined by a “litany of loopholes.”
Here’s why the final agreement is dividing opinion.
What’s in the climate deal?
The agreement marks the first time the annual UN meeting has asked countries to move away from fossil fuels — the main driver of the climate crisis.
The text of the agreement “calls on” countries to “contribute” to global efforts to reduce carbon pollution. It lists a menu of actions they can take, including “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems … accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050.”
What the agreement doesn’t do is require a “phase-out” of fossil fuels. That ambitious language was supported by more than 100 countries, including the United States and European Union, but was fiercely opposed by fossil fuel states such as Saudi Arabia.
The agreement also calls for a tripling of renewable energy capacity and a doubling of energy efficiency, both by 2030.
Countries are also being asked to have detailed adaptation plans in place by 2025, to show how they intend to deal with the current and future impacts of the escalating climate crisis.
The agreement also acknowledges the need for trillions of dollars of funding to flow from rich countries to poorer, climate vulnerable ones, to help them adapt climate change and transition to renewable energy. But there are no requirements in the deal for wealthy countries to give more.
What are the loopholes?
The agreement contains a “litany of loopholes” which could “take us backward rather than forward,” Anne Rasmussen, the lead negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States, said in a speech Wednesday.
Those loopholes refer to the option for countries to accelerate zero- and low-carbon technologies, including carbon capture and storage – a set of techniques that are still being developed with the aim of removing carbon pollution from the atmosphere.
Many scientists and other experts have said that carbon capture is unproven at scale and a distraction from policies to cut fossil fuel use, potentially giving license to polluters to carry on burning fossil fuels.
The International Energy Agency sees a limited role for carbon capture in energy-hungry sectors such as steelmaking, which can’t yet be effectively powered by renewables like wind and solar.
Another “loophole” that has angered some countries and climate experts is the agreement’s recognition of a continued role for “transitional fuels” — largely interpreted to mean methane gas, a planet-heating fossil fuel.
What are people saying about the agreement?
Several climate negotiators and international groups called the final text historic and significant, while also being careful to say it does not go far enough or fast enough to rein in the climate crisis.
“The message coming out of this COP is we are moving away from fossil fuels,” US climate envoy John Kerry told reporters at a Wednesday press conference. While he acknowledged the final agreement represented a compromise, he called it a success and a vindication of multilateralism.
“We’re not turning back,” he added.
Other observers noted the text gives leeway to fossil fuel producers.
Tom Evans, a policy advisor at E3G, told CNN “there are some good elements in here but the signal on fossil fuels is muddled – it recognizes that we are turning away from fossil fuels at long last but still too slowly.”
The draft “sends a signal that the fossil industry’s days are numbered,” Teresa Anderson, global climate lead at ActionAid, said in a statement. But, she added, it still contains “offers several gifts to the greenwashers, with mentions of carbon capture and storage, so-called transition fuels, nuclear power and carbon markets.”
What else came out of COP28?
The first day of COP28 opened with a surprise agreement to adopt a climate damage fund that was the result of decades of hard-fought negotiations.
Many countries, including COP28 host country the UAE, have since made pledges totaling more than $700 million to help nations hit hardest by the climate crisis deal with its consequences.
More announcements on climate finance were made during the rest of the summit; the UAE pledged to create a $30 billion climate finance fund and put $250 million into it by the end of the decade.
During Vice President Kamala Harris’s visit to COP, the US pledged $3 billion towards the Green Climate Fund, the main finance vehicle to help developing nations adapt to the climate crisis and cut fossil fuel pollution.
Slashing emissions of methane, a powerful planet-warming gas, was also a sharp focus in the early days of the meeting. The US announced regulations to cut methane pollution from the nation’s huge oil and gas industry by nearly 80% through 2038.
And 50 major oil and gas companies, including Exxon and Saudi Aramco, signed a pledge to cut their methane emissions by the end of the decade, each committing to reduce their methane intensity by around 80% to 90% by 2030.
What comes next?
Now the deal is agreed, countries are required to update their national plans in 2025 to reduce emissions, detailing how much they’ll cut down on planet-warming pollution by 2035.
The US and China, the world’s two biggest emitters, have already jointly committed that their plans will cover all economy-wide climate pollution, and reduce emissions from non-CO2 gases such as methane and hydrofluorocarbons. That agreement marked a major commitment from China, in particular, which emits more carbon dioxide than the rest of the developed world combined.
Speaking Wednesday, Kerry said the two countries were actively encouraging the rest of the world’s nations to follow. But Kerry warned that more ambition was needed to avoid the worst impacts of the climate crisis.
“That’s our challenge. Speed it up; bring it to scale – bigger, faster,” Kerry said.
Attention will now move to next year’s summit. After a fraught selection process, Azerbaijan, another major oil and gas producing nation, was tapped to host the 2024 talks.
Latest Cop28 draft drops after day of silence and calls for ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels
Stuti Mishra and Louise Boyle
Wed, December 13, 2023
Latest Cop28 draft drops after day of silence and calls for ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels
The latest draft of the Cop28 agreement was released early on Wednesday morning after more than 24 hours of silence while negotiators wrangled over the future of fossil fuels.
The new text directly addresses fossil fuels, a central demand at this year’s global climate summit, and calls on parties to “transition away” from their use “in this critical decade”.
However the phrase “phase out” or “phase down” of fossil fuels was not reintroduced despite being called for by more than 100 countries, and being options in an earlier text. Oil-rich nations had strongly opposed this call
The draft will not become final until consensus is reached among all countries. However this text is expected to be close to the final version that goes to a vote.
The final plenary session to gavel through the decision is expected to begin at 10.30am local time.
Climate advocates said that it was positive that fossil fuels had been “brought to the table” for the first time in a Cop28 agreement.
“This text makes a clear call for the world to transition away from fossil fuels and accelerate action this decade,” said Melanie Robinson, Global Climate Program Director, World Resources Institute.
“This would dramatically move the needle in the fight against climate change and overcome immense pressure from oil and gas interests.”
Others said it did not go far enough. Jean Su, acting director of Center for Biological Diversity, said there were “cavernous holes”, when climate science, along with the futures of small island states and other vulnerable countries, were taken into consideration.
There were particular concerns about the role of “transitional fuels” and whether that would mean the continued use of natural gas, a fossil fuel. The so-called “Global Stocktake” draft in Dubai repeats a call to “accelerate efforts towards the phase down of unabated coal power” that was made in the Cop26 Glasgow Agreement two years ago.
Among other key elements of the text are:- “Transitioning away from fossil fuels” in this decade, in a “just, orderly and equitable manner” keeping the net zero goals of 2050 in mind;- Tripling renewable energy capacity globally by 2030;- “Phasing down unabated coal”;- “Accelerating zero and low emissions technologies” including nuclear, and carbon removal technologies;- Phasing out of “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies as soon as possible that do not address energy poverty or help developing countries transition to clean energy.
The Cop28 summit was now more than 12 hours into overtime after it was officially scheduled to end at 6pm, Gulf time, on Tuesday.
It has been an exhausting and emotional marathon slog to reach this point. The Monday draft of the so-called “Global Stocktake” agreement had provoked furious and heart-wrenching responses.
“We did not come here to sign our death warrant. We came here to fight for 1.5C and for the only way to achieve that: a fossil fuel phase-out … We will not go silently to our watery graves,” said John M. Silk, head of delegation for the Marshall Islands, whose low-lying island nation faces devastating sea-level rise in the coming decades.
A representative for the EU also called the draft “unacceptable” while the US said that the wording, including about fossil fuels, needed to be “substantially strengthened”.
A number of other nations, the UK among them, called the text “disappointing” and said that it needed to go further.
COP28: 5 big takeaways on a historic climate agreement
Saul Elbein
JON GAMBRELL
Updated Wed, December 13, 2023 a
COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber leaves a plenary session at the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit, Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. (AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili)
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — As the United Nations COP28 climate summit ended Wednesday, Sultan al-Jaber walked out with what the United Arab Emirates wanted all along — the prestige of hosting negotiations that got the world to agree to transition away from fossil fuels while still being able to pump ever-more oil.
That left some wanting much more from the two weeks of talks, even as many praised its historic accord. But it no longer will matter to the state oil company chief executive and renewable energy advocate who embodies many of the traits that have propelled this young nation into the global spotlight.
Al-Jaber, who as president of COP28 facilitated the negotiations, faced criticism and scrutiny from the moment he took the position due to his oil ties. He tried to disarm critics among the delegates through an Emirati tradition, at one point convening a “majlis," or a traditional ruler's sitting room to listen to concerns that he said he wanted not to have been laundered through layers of diplomacy and bureaucracy. Most still were.
But after an initial proposal drew screams, al-Jaber and his entourage presented another early Wednesday that gained the consensus required in the COP process.
And for all words written, said and broadcast about this global event, it really just boiled down to 34 in one clause-packed sentence: “Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”
After the agreement's adoption, al-Jaber received immediate support from some on hand.
“I have to say that the people that has criticizing Dr. Sultan and the UAE owe them an apology,” said Dan Jørgensen, Denmark’s climate minister. "They have been a transparent and inclusive presidency.”
Others offered a more critical take, noting that al-Jaber's Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. still plans to boost its oil production up to 5 million barrels of crude a day. That means more of the carbon-belching fuels driving climate change — which cause more-intense and more-frequent extreme events such as storms, droughts, floods and wildfires.
“The atmosphere responds to one thing: Emissions. It’s physics, stupid," said Alden Meyer, a senior associate at the independent climate change think tank E3G. "And all the declarations, all the decisions, all the platitudes, all the announcements in the world, if it doesn’t translate into real world action that reduces emissions, is not worth the paper it’s written on.”
Though hosted in Dubai, the final agreement reached at the summit ended up being called "the UAE Consensus," an extremely unusual move as other deals have been named after their cities, like the landmark Paris Accords or the Kyoto Protocol. All this feeds into the wider ambitions of the UAE, an autocratic federation of seven sheikhdoms, to grow its political stature in the international arena and to punch beyond its weight while further unifying this country that only formed in 1971.
Al-Jaber, long a trusted technocrat under leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, ultimately had only one boss to satisfy. But reaching the deal here also required negotiating across fractious coalitions of countries that emerged at the talks.
The traditional Western nations held largely similar views, with U.S. envoy John Kerry staying close to al-Jaber in the months leading up the talks. The growing powers of China and India focused on ensuring their rise wouldn't be curtailed through shutting off their coal-fired power plants. And the Gulf crude producers, led by neighboring Saudi Arabia, want to make sure their oil fields pump into the next generation to fuel their economic ambitions.
There were protests, both outside in the United Nations-administered Blue Zone at the summit and on the plenary floor, with 12-year-old activist Licypriya Kangujam rushing to the front to hold up a sign declaring: “End Fossil Fuel. Save Our Planet And Our Future.”
In a country where political dissidents face imprisonment, the Emiratis exercised restraint as U.N. officers oversaw those limited demonstrations as their tight grip across the rest of this monitored nation remained unchallenged.
Yet the al-Jaber-engineered deal faced criticism in the end.
“Many people here would have liked clearer language about the need to begin peaking and reducing fossil fuels in this critical decade,” Kerry told the summit. “But we know this was a compromise between many parties.”
An even-more stinging rebuke came from Samoa's lead negotiator Anne Rasmussen, who highlighted what she described as "a litany of loopholes" in the final agreement.
“We didn’t want to interrupt the standing ovation when came into the room, but we are a little confused about what happened,” Rasmussen said. “It seems that you just gaveled the decisions and the small island developing states were not in the room.”
She added: "It is not enough for us to reference the science and then make agreements that ignore what the science is telling us we need to do. This is not an approach that we should be asked to defend.”
The science says the world must work to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
Rasmussen's remarks earned her a standing ovation at the summit, longer than that greeting the “UAE Consensus.” Al-Jaber sat, grimacing slightly for a few moments.
In the end, though, he stood up to applaud the Samoan as well. It was enough to have already won the war.
___
EDITOR’S NOTE — Jon Gambrell, the news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the world since joining the AP in 2006.
___
Associated Press journalist David Keyton contributed.
___
Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
Nearly 200 countries agreed to a historic climate deal. Here’s what’s included — and what’s missing
Hannah Murdock
Wed, December 13, 2023 at 8:16 AM MST·2 min read
47
United Nations Climate Chief Simon Stiell, left, and COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber pose for photos at the end of the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit, Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. | Kamran Jebreili, Associated Press
Nearly 200 countries agreed Wednesday to a historic climate deal that calls for a global transition away from fossil fuels.
Following days of negotiations, the U.N. climate summit in Dubai agreed on a new deal that includes its first ever call to move away from the use of fossil fuels.
“We have language on fossil fuel in our final agreement for the first time ever,” COP28 president Sultan al-Jaber said.
The deal, notably, does not include a global “phase out” of fossil fuels, as nearly 100 countries called for in a joint statement. Rather, the deal calls on countries to “transition away” from fossil fuels, which some critics are calling a loophole that will allow countries to continue drilling and contributing to climate change.
Below is a breakdown of what is included in the climate deal and what’s missing:
What’s included in the COP28 deal?
The deal calls on nations to:
Triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030.
Double energy efficiency improvements at a global scale by 2030.
Accelerate efforts toward the phase-down of unabated coal power.
Accelerate efforts globally toward net zero emission energy systems, utilizing zero- and low-carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century.
Transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050.
Accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies.
Reduce non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030.
Reduce emissions from road transport.
Phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.
What’s missing from the COP28 deal?
Some critics of the deal say that it doesn’t go far enough in cutting back on fossil fuels.
“The problem with the text is that it still includes cavernous loopholes that allow the United States and other fossil fuel producing countries to keep going on their expansion of fossil fuels,” Center for Biological Diversity energy justice director Jean Su told The Associated Press. “There’s a pretty deadly, fatal flaw in the text, which allows for transitional fuels to continue.”
What’s more, the pact does not outlaw the construction of new coal-burning power plants or include “commitments to help finance poorer nations’ energy transitions,” The New York Times reported.
Related
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“The finance and equity provisions ... are seriously insufficient and must be improved in the time ahead in order to ensure low- and middle-income countries can transition to clean energy and close the energy poverty gap,” Rachel Cleetus, policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists, told Reuters.
UAE's Jaber, oil boss who brokered 'beginning of end' for fossil fuels
AFP
Wed, December 13, 2023
Sultan Al Jaber, the UAE oil chief who headed COP28 in Dubai, promised that this year's UN climate talks would be "different". He did not disappoint.
The towering Emirati, 50, was beaming in his grey dishdasha after he brought down the hammer on the first United Nations agreement calling for a transition away from fossil fuels.
It ended a Conference of the Parties (COP) of contradictions in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates, which is one of the world's biggest producers of crude.
Jaber is CEO of oil giant ADNOC as well as being the UAE's climate envoy and minister of industry and advanced technology. He is also chairman of renewable energy company Masdar.
His naming as COP28 chief drew conflict-of-interest concerns at a time of increasingly stark warnings about the urgency of transitioning away from hydrocarbons to have a hope of keeping climate targets in view.
Dozens of US and European lawmakers said Jaber's oil and gas links should disqualify him from the job. Hundreds of climate campaign groups called for him to quit either COP or ADNOC.
"COP28 is beset by a dark cloud of -- entirely warranted -- public scepticism," US Senator Sheldon Whitehouse said at the time.
But Jaber will now claim vindication after presiding over a deal described by UN climate chief Simon Stiell as the "beginning of the end" for fossil fuels.
"Together, we have confronted the realities and we have set the world in the right direction," Jaber told the cavernous auditorium on the outskirts of Dubai.
"We have given it a robust action plan to keep 1.5 within reach."
- High stakes -
Before COP, Jaber was in less jubilant mood, bristling at accusations of a conflict of interest.
"I'm someone who spent the majority of his career in sustainability, in sustainable economic development and project management, and renewable energy," he told AFP in July.
Indeed, he founded state-owned renewable energy company Masdar a decade before he took the helm of ADNOC with a mandate to "decarbonise" and "future-proof" the gas and petrol giant.
The stakes were exceptionally high for COP28.
The most ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement was to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, although UN climate experts warned this year that we are hurtling towards breaching that guardrail in the 2030s.
During months of frenetic travel that saw him criss-cross the planet, Jaber managed to win over some sceptics.
Harjeet Singh, of the influential coalition Climate Action Network International, said a turning point came in July, when Jaber wrote that "phasing down demand for, and supply of, all fossil fuels is inevitable and essential".
"He's very straightforward, he's open to listening," Singh told AFP, though the pair "agree to disagree" on several issues.
Those disagreements included the prominence given to fossil fuel lobbyists, whose accreditations numbered a record 2,456 in Dubai, according to campaign groups -- more than every national delegation apart from the UAE and Brazil.
- Strong start -
Another point of difference was Jaber's endorsement of controversial carbon capture technologies that trap emissions and store them permanently.
ADNOC made a commitment in July to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045 for its own operations.
But that target does not include emissions produced by the oil and gas burned by its customers, which account for the vast majority of its carbon footprint.
Jaber's COP started strongly when he passed a landmark loss and damage fund on day one, when the two-week meeting had barely started.
Several pledges followed, including the UAE's $30 billion private investment fund focused on climate projects in developing countries.
Talks then went into overtime, after a dispute over including "phasing out" or "phasing down" fossil fuels, before a compromise was struck and hastily passed on Wednesday.
Dubai climate summit adopts world-first 'transition' from fossil fuels
Laurent Thomet, Shaun Tandon, Hachem Osseiran and Talek Harris
Wed, December 13, 2023
COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber said the summit brought 'transformational change' to the planet (Giuseppe CACACE)
Nearly 200 nations meeting in Dubai on Wednesday approved a first-ever call for the world to transition away from fossil fuels, tackling the top culprit of climate change after years of avoidance although at-risk countries said far more action was needed.
After 13 days of talks and several sleepless nights in a country built on oil wealth, the Emirati president of the UN-led COP28 summit banged a gavel to signal the world had reached consensus.
"You did step up, you showed flexibility, you put common interest ahead of self-interest," said COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber, whose role as head of the United Arab Emirates' national oil company raised suspicion among many environmentalists.
Describing the deal as bringing "transformational change" on climate, Jaber said of the UAE's diplomacy: "We have helped restore faith and trust in multilateralism, and we have shown that humanity can come together."
EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra called the agreement "long, long overdue", saying it had taken nearly 30 years of climate meeting to "arrive at the beginning of the end of fossil fuels".
But with the UN talks requiring consensus, Jaber carefully calibrated the text to bring onboard countries from islands that fear extinction from rising sea levels to oil giant Saudi Arabia, which led the charge to keep exporting its petroleum.
Toughening language from an earlier draft that was roundly denounced by environmentalists, the agreement calls for "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner".
It calls for expanding action "in this critical decade" and recommits to no net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 in hopes of meeting the increasingly elusive goal of checking warming at 1.5 degrees (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.
The planet has already warmed by 1.2 degrees and scientists say 2023 was likely the warmest in 100,000 years, as storms, droughts and lethal wildfires expand around the world.
- Islanders still alarmed -
The negotiator from the Marshall Islands had warned that an earlier draft marked a "death warrant" for his nation, which is just 2.1 metres (seven feet) above sea level.
The small islands did not block the Dubai deal, but a representative from Samoa criticised the language as too weak after contending the group had not arrived yet in the room at Dubai's sprawling Expo City when Jaber declared consensus.
"We have made an incremental advancement over business as usual when what we really needed is an exponential step change in our actions," Samoan chief negotiator Anne Rasmussen said on behalf of the island nations, drawing a standing ovation and polite applause from Jaber.
Brazil, which will lead the climate talks in 2025 in the Amazon, said that wealthy nations must now deliver on another key climate pledge -- providing assistance to worst-hit developing nations.
But US climate envoy John Kerry said that no side can ever achieve everything in negotiations and praised the deal as a sign a war-torn world can come together for the common good.
"I think everyone has to agree this is much stronger and clearer as a call on 1.5 than we have ever heard before, and it clearly reflects what the science says," Kerry said.
A Saudi representative voiced "gratitude" to the UAE efforts, calling the outcome a "great success".
The text stopped short of backing appeals during the summit for a "phase-out" of oil, gas and coal, which together account for around three-quarters of the emissions responsible for the planetary crisis.
But it goes well beyond Jaber's earlier draft that merely suggested that nations "could" reduce the consumption and production of fossil fuels, among other options.
Environmentalists virtually all saw the agreement as a step forward, although many cautioned that there will still far more to do.
"We are finally naming the elephant in the room. The genie is never going back into the bottle and future COPs will only turn the screws even more on dirty energy," said Mohamed Adow, director of the Power Shift Africa think tank, referring to the annual UN climate meetings known as Conferences of the Parties.
"Some people may have had their expectations for this meeting raised too high, but this result would have been unheard of two years ago, especially at a COP meeting in a petrostate," he said.
- More ambition, but with loopholes -
The agreement also made more explicit the near-term goals in the goal of ending net emissions by 2050.
It called for the world to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent by 2030 compared with 2019 levels.
But Jean Su of the Center for Biological Diversity, while seeing progress, said there were still "cavernous loopholes" for fossil fuels.
The agreement tackles only fossil use in energy, not in industrial areas such as production of plastics and fertiliser.
She also voiced alarm at the recognition of the role of "transitional fuels", which she saw as a codeword for producers of natural gas and other fossil fuels such as the United States on the grounds of energy security.
The deal backs a phase-down of "unabated" coal power -- meaning it preserves a role for the dirty but politically sensitive energy source if there is use of carbon capture technology, panned by many environmentalists as unproven.
bur-sct/lth/giv
Historic or half measures? Breaking down the UN climate deal
What the COP28 final agreement includes and what it doesn't
Workers move items as COP28 comes to an end in Dubai. (Rafiq Maqbool/Associated Press)
Renewables need to triple, but how?
The document also recognizes the need to triple "renewable energy capacity globally and double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030."
Calgary-based Pembina Institute says the emphasis on renewables should be a signal for Canada, and particularly Alberta, to put more effort into renewable energy.
"While much work remains, what is beyond doubt is that Canada cannot ignore the challenges and opportunities represented by the energy transition currently underway," said executive director Chris Severson-Baker.
But it's unclear how tripling renewable energy worldwide will be achieved, and there are no specifics on money to help developing countries fund that transition.
With El Niño expected to stretch into the winter, all eyes are on 2024
Kaisa Kosonen of Greenpeace International said the "outcome leaves poorer countries well short of the resources they will need for renewable energy transition and other needs."
She said rich countries will need to significantly step up financial support and make fossil fuel polluters pay if the many goals of the agreement are to be realized.
Help for developing countries, but more
The agreement does, however, put into effect a "loss and damage" fund that had been agreed upon earlier in the summit. The fund is designed to help developing countries cope with the impacts of climate change such as floods, drought and rising sea levels.
Canada's Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault announced an initial commitment of $16 million toward the loss and damage fund. In all, the world's richest countries have committed $700 million to the fund — an amount that falls far short of the $400 billion estimated to be required.
Soon after the final agreement was adopted, Anne Rasmussen, Samoa's lead delegate and the representative for a group of small island nations, said "the course correction that is needed has not been secured."
Rasmussen said the deal represented business as usual instead of exponential emission-cutting efforts and warned it could "potentially take us backward rather than forward."
Will this change anything?
The agreement is non-binding, but experts say these kinds of documents can still serve as an important reference point both domestically and internationally.
Jessica Green, a political science professor at University of Toronto and expert in global climate governance, said the Dubai agreement can be considered a "diplomatic success but a policy failure."
Like many previous UN climate meetings, Green said the gathering in Dubai didn't result in firm commitments to change course.
Reaching a consensus among so many countries with such different interests is filled with challenges, but she said at the very least the agreement will set expectations on points such as the need for funding toward climate adaptation and renewable energy.
"The multilateral process will continue to lurch forward," Green said.
Shift away from fossil fuels now or face nearly 3 C warming by century's end: UN
Simon Stiell, the UN Climate Change executive secretary, summed up the deal as an "amber light' when a "green light" was the goal but said there are now "paths forward."
Environmental activists were hoping countries at COP28 would agree to completely phase out fossil fuels by 2050. (Kyle Bakx/CBC)
Al Gore, a former U.S. vice president and Nobel Peace Prize winning climate activist, said while the agreement was an important milestone in recognizing the "climate crisis is at its heart a fossil fuel crisis," he added that "the influence of petrostates is still evident in the half measures and loopholes" in the agreement.
In his view, whether this amounts to a turning point "depends on the actions that come next."
Climate summit makes ‘historic progress’ — but the world still can’t quit oil
Karl Mathiesen, Zia Weise, Zack Colman and Sara Schonhardt
Wed, December 13, 2023
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Climate talks in Dubai ended with a deal to curb the use of fossil fuels that was both historic and 30 years too late.
The two-week conference, held in the oil-rich desert kingdom of the United Arab Emirates and presided over by an oil CEO, brought two competing realities into a painful collision. The planet is overheating, yet humanity remains inextricably reliant on coal, oil and natural gas.
The talks ended on Wednesday with a deal among almost 200 countries that committed to “transitioning away from fossil fuels,” notably by speeding up that shift before 2030. But the agreement also appeased oil-rich Gulf states by explicitly sanctioning those fuels’ use during the transition. And organizers gaveled it through so hastily that representatives for vulnerable island nations, who had a series of misgivings about the text, had yet to enter the room.
Still, leaders of the U.N. summit and representatives of major governments were quick to endorse the nonbinding pact as a historic acknowledgment that the world needs to move quickly to cleaner energy sources.
“This document sends very strong messages to the world," said U.S. climate envoy John Kerry, who had placed his personal credibility on the line by backing the controversial choice of oil CEO Sultan al-Jaber to oversee the conference.
“This is much stronger and clearer as a call” for halting global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius — the ambitious, increasingly out-of-reach goal of global climate negotiators — “than we have ever heard before,” he said.
Kerry also announced that China and the U.S. had agreed to update their long-term plans for tackling climate change in light of the progress made at the talks.
“This is historic progress,” said Danish Climate Minister Dan Jørgensen. “I can totally understand if our populations think that it's a disgrace that it had to take 28 years. But now we're here. We're in an oil country surrounded by oil countries that are now signing a piece of paper saying we need to move away from oil. It is historic.”
Others said the COP28 deal was just a start.
“We also needed to signal a hard stop to humanity's core climate problem, fossil fuels and their planet burning pollution,” said Simon Stiell, the United Nations’ climate chief. “Whilst we didn't turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the beginning of the end.”
Spanish Ecological Transition Minister Teresa Ribera said that “there are many things we miss in this text, but we sincerely believe that this is an important step forward.”
And still others said the agreement falls short of what the warming world needs.
“The influence of petrostates is still evident in the half measures and loopholes included in the final agreement,” former U.S. Vice President Al Gore said in a statement. “Fossil fuel interests went all out to control the outcome.”
Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, a senior official with the World Wildlife Fund who was president of the 2014’s COP20 climate conference in Peru, said: “For a liveable planet we need a full phase out of all fossil fuels.”
Fossil fuels take the spotlight
Yet none of the U.N.’s 27 preceding annual climate conferences had directly addressed the use of fossil fuels, which are largely responsible for having heated the planet by around 1.3 degrees since the pre-industrial era.
Getting that language into this closing text was a mark of success for the Dubai talks, al-Jaber told the summit delegates on Wednesday.
“We have language on fossil fuel in our agreement for the first time ever,” said al-Jaber, who heads the United Arab Emirates’ Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. That company plans to oversee $150 billion in spending that includes an effort to expand its oil production capacity by 2027.
Gore also noted the “milestone” of including the fossil fuel language. But he added that “it is also the bare minimum we need and is long overdue.”
The European Union and small island nations whose physical existence is threatened by the continued use of fossil fuels had mounted a push for a deal that would categorically end their use by the middle of this century — unless they are attached to machines that can remove and bury their dangerous carbon. The U.S., Australia, Canada and Norway — all heavy fossil fuel producers — belatedly joined the call.
The final result reflected other progress in the fight to end global warming. Clean energy technologies such as wind are becoming cheaper than dirty alternatives in many cases. Countries were more prepared than ever to commit to submitting new voluntary plans that delve deep into their economies and cover every greenhouse gas emitting sector with more detail than before.
The final deal also included a pact to triple global renewable energy capacity and double the rate of energy savings through efficiency measures by 2030. And for the first time, it included a clear benchmark for reducing greenhouse gas emissions during this decade, which supporters view as a crucial guidepost for staying on track for hitting global climate goals.
But fossil fuels still supply more than 80 percent of global energy. And for those islanders who had come to Dubai hoping, if not perhaps expecting, that COP28 would show a willingness to break that chokehold, the final deal was a cold postscript.
Tina Stege, the climate envoy for the coral-fringed Marshall Islands, who was out of the room as al-Jaber gaveled the deal through, walked in stiffly as the oil boss proclaimed that his “UAE consensus” was a “paradigm shift.”
Anne Rasmussen, the lead negotiator for the Pacific nation of Samoa, drew her own applause after lamenting that al-Jaber had pushed through the agreement before she and other representatives for endangered island communities had had a chance to outline the text's shortcomings.
“This is not an approach we should be asked to defend,” Rasmussen said.
The presidency thanked the delegate for her comments and then continued with proceedings. Later, Kerry called the applause a “clarion call” highlighting countries’ obligations and responsibility to reach “as far as we can, as fast as we can.”
While the outcome might not have fully met the calls of the Pacific Island countries, “their voices are being heard,” said Chris Bowen, Australia’s minister for climate change and energy.
Fierce resistance to the deal had come from Saudi Arabia, India, China, Nigeria and other countries that see fossil fuels as a way to build, or maintain, their prosperity. Acknowledging that some fossil fuels would be needed as the world moved to cleaner energy was critical in bringing them on board.
Albara Tawfiq, a Saudi official who leads a group of Arab countries, emphasized the room the deal allowed for countries to use non-renewable approaches to cutting climate pollution. Throughout the talks, Saudi Arabia pushed hard for the use of carbon capture technology, even though scientists have warned that it cannot substitute for moving toward cleaner energy sources.
“We must use every opportunity to reduce emissions regardless of the source and use all technologies to this effect,” he said.
Some resource-rich countries say a shift away from fossil fuels needs to come with adequate money and resources that don’t force them to forgo development and the ability to meet growing energy needs.
Many developing nations, in Africa and elsewhere, pointed to what they called the hypocrisy of Western countries that are continuing to expand their extraction of oil and gas while calling on others to consign those fuels to history.
“The developed countries that are leading the expansion of fossil fuel production across the globe are now the champions of the 1.5C North Star,” Bolivian representative Diego Pacheco Balanza said. Those countries, he said, “are running counter to science themselves.”
In the U.S., already the world’s top oil producer, President Joe Biden’s administration has approved a new oil and gas project in Alaska and is holding offshore lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico. The United Kingdom has licensed new drilling operations in the North Sea. The EU has stormed Africa to sign deals to secure gas from the continent, seeking to plug gaps in its supply after the bloc ditched Russian fuel following Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
“None of the policies they have in place right now are leading us to phasing out,” Pedro Luis Pedroso Cuesta, a Cuban diplomat who chairs a large bloc of developing countries and China, told POLITICO. “So how do you reconcile that with then a statement here on phasing out? That is quite contradictory, to say the least.”
These countries also noted that rich countries have consistently failed to deliver on financial pledges to help poorer countries to build clean energy systems. They directed that charge most forcefully at the U.S., where Congress has declined to sanction new spending.
The final text nods in that direction, noting that favorable lending terms and non-debt financing such as grants can assist the transition off fossil fuels. But the agreement did not commit nations to any new assistance, while noting with “deep regret” that rich nations failed to deliver a promised $100 billion in annual climate finance by 2020.
“Nigeria is committed to tripling renewable energy. But we know that tripling renewable energy also requires resources,” said Nigerian environment minister Ishak Kunle Salako. “We cannot just commit to one, and not commit to the other.”
'Ambition and pragmatism'
For al-Jaber, whose role as the summit’s president has drawn steady criticism since the UAE tapped him for the job in January, COP28 brought tremendous scrutiny over whether he would allow fossil fuel interests to dominate the summit, as green activists feared. Those concerns included skepticism about his initial focus on tackling greenhouse gas emissions through means such as expensive carbon-capture technology, rather than addressing them at their source. Under growing pressure, he eventually declared that a phaseout of fossil fuels was “inevitable.”
“In the end, this COP is going to be remembered for what it achieves on fossil fuels,” Brazilian lead negotiator André Corrêa do Lago told POLITICO earlier this week. “Which I think was not the original intention, but it’s an interesting evolution."
The summit started off on a positive note. In the opening plenary on Nov. 30, countries signed off on the creation of a new fund to help developing nations rebuild after climate disasters, a historic agreement island nations had spent decades campaigning for.
Promises to inject the fund with cash immediately followed. The UAE and Germany announced contributions of $100 million each; in total, countries pledged nearly $800 million toward the new fund by the end of the summit. Countries and activists welcomed the early agreement, though the U.S. came under fire for pledging only $17.5 million.
Once the excitement over the new fund settled, the COP28 presidency set off a firework of announcements and declarations, some more consequential than others.
The vast majority of countries signed non-binding declarations focused on making the world’s food supply and health care systems more resilient against climate impacts, though those documents barely mentioned fossil fuels. Dozens supported a pledge to slash planet-warming emissions from air-conditioning. Some countries joined France in signing pledges to scale up nuclear power and accelerate the end of coal.
The presidency’s “oil and gas decarbonization charter” — which saw 50 oil and gas companies promise to eliminate methane leaks by 2030 and production-related greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century — came in for significant criticism. Vulnerable countries and green groups described it as “greenwashing,” and U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres warned that “the promises made clearly fall short of what is required.”
Halfway through the conference, the IEA summarized the energy-related pledges as “positive steps” but said they would “not be nearly enough to move the world onto a path to reaching international climate targets.”
As delegates ended the conference with speeches on Wednesday, before heading out into the smog of Dubai, a representative from China — by far the world’s largest carbon polluter — spoke up. Throughout the talks, Beijing had resisted the deal to end fossil fuels. But now Zhao Yingmin, a vice minister in the country’s environmental department, summed up the clash of hopes and reality expressed in the deal.
“It is China’s view that climate action must feature both ambition and pragmatism,” he said.
Chris Oberholtz
Wed, December 13, 2023
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – Representatives from nearly 200 countries delivered a resounding message of global solidarity to reduce fossil fuel usage after the United Nations' yearly climate conference.
The 28th meeting of world leaders, known as the Conference of the Parties (COP), was held for two weeks to address climate change. The meeting came at a crucial time as U.N. reports show the world is not on track to reach critical goals in the landmark Paris Agreement.
"Whilst we didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the beginning of the end," UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said in his closing speech Wednesday. "Now all governments and businesses need to turn these pledges into real-economy outcomes, without delay."
COP28 president Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber (center) applauds among other officials before a plenary session during the United Nations climate summit in Dubai on December 13, 2023.
The world’s first ‘global stocktake’ pact by leaders aims to limit the increase in global temperature to below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the decade. This comes as 2023 is on track to be the warmest year on record, with fears that an El Niño extending into 2024 could lead to the release of more heat.
"For the first time, there is a recognition of the need to transition away from fossil fuels – after many years in which the discussion of this issue was blocked," U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said.
Countries can use the "global stocktake" from COP28 – including every element under negotiation – to develop stronger climate action plans due by 2025. The global stocktake includes every element that was under negotiation.
The stocktake acknowledges that scientists recommend cutting global greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels, to limit global warming to 1.5°C. However, the UN notes that countries are not on track to meet their goals in the Paris Agreement.
INCREASING DROUGHTS ‘AN UNPRECEDENTED EMERGENCY ON A PLANETARY SCALE,’ UN WARNS
Countries were also called upon to take steps towards tripling the capacity of renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency improvements on a global scale by 2030.
Environmental activists hold up placards during a demonstration outside the headquarters of BP (formerly British Petroleum) in central London on December 9, 2023, gathering in solidarity with people on the frontlines of the climate crisis.
Efforts will be made to speed up the phase-down of coal power, phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, and transition to renewable energy in an equitable manner. Developed countries will take the lead.
Countries are urged to submit ambitious, comprehensive greenhouse gas reduction plans in line with the 1.5°C limit by 2025.
Editorial: After COP28, let's make this the 'beginning of the end' of fossil fuels
The Times Editorial Board
Wed, December 13, 2023
COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber, second from left, claps at the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. (Kamran Jebreili / Associated Press)
It took nearly three decades, but world leaders this week finally acknowledged the obvious: There is no way to slow climate change without winding down fossil fuels.
The agreement reached Wednesday by nearly 200 nations at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai is something of a breakthrough. For the first time, world leaders called for moving away from fossil fuels in energy systems.
It’s easy to criticize this deal, which followed two weeks of tough negotiations, as weak and insufficient. It is nonbinding and full of caveats and loopholes. It includes support for carbon capture technology and “transitional fuels,” code for natural gas, that would enable the continued burning of planet-warming hydrocarbons.
It calls for "transitioning away" from fossil fuels, rather than phasing out, which many entities, including the United States, the European Union and vulnerable island states, were pushing for. The weaker language is the reflection of heavy influence from polluting industries, OPEC and oil-rich nations that lobbied fiercely against targeting fossil fuels.
Read more: Editorial: On climate change, world leaders are saying one thing and doing another
But the agreement is a milestone nonetheless. There is now a baseline global consensus on the need to move beyond fossil fuels.
Whether this deal truly signals the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era, as U.N. officials have said, depends entirely on what steps countries take next to scale up clean, renewable energy and hasten the demise of planet-warming coal, oil and gas.
Now governments must quickly take action to avoid a disastrous future, including the collapse of ecosystems and mounting human suffering from worsening storms, fires, heat waves, floods and other climate-fueled disasters.
This will be a particular challenge for the U.S., which is the world’s top oil producer and is pumping out record amounts even as the planet records its hottest year. Oil and gas companies are doubling down on fossil fuels with big acquisitions and expansion plans, while using their record profits to attack, delay and undermine climate solutions including renewable energy and electric vehicles.
Read more: Commentary: Bird names shouldn’t honor bigots and enslavers — or anyone
But there are also signs of hope. The historic clean energy investments under the Inflation Reduction Act are beginning to transform the U.S. economy. In California, 1 in 4 new cars sold are now zero-emission and Los Angeles officials last year banned new oil drilling and will phase out existing wells.
Perhaps future generations will look back on 2023 as a turning point when the world’s leaders — hosted by a petroleum company executive in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates, of all places — changed course and finally got on a path toward ending fossil fuels that endanger our planet and the life it sustains.
But it's up to all of us to hold our government accountable for delivering on these words and taking all necessary actions to close the door on the fossil fuel era.
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
Nearly 200 countries agreed to a historic climate deal. Here’s what’s included — and what’s missing
Hannah Murdock
Wed, December 13, 2023
United Nations Climate Chief Simon Stiell, left, and COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber pose for photos at the end of the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit, Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. | Kamran Jebreili, Associated Press
Nearly 200 countries agreed Wednesday to a historic climate deal that calls for a global transition away from fossil fuels.
Following days of negotiations, the U.N. climate summit in Dubai agreed on a new deal that includes its first ever call to move away from the use of fossil fuels.
“We have language on fossil fuel in our final agreement for the first time ever,” COP28 president Sultan al-Jaber said.
The deal, notably, does not include a global “phase out” of fossil fuels, as nearly 100 countries called for in a joint statement. Rather, the deal calls on countries to “transition away” from fossil fuels, which some critics are calling a loophole that will allow countries to continue drilling and contributing to climate change.
Below is a breakdown of what is included in the climate deal and what’s missing:
What’s included in the COP28 deal?
The deal calls on nations to:
Triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030.
Double energy efficiency improvements at a global scale by 2030.
Accelerate efforts toward the phase-down of unabated coal power.
Accelerate efforts globally toward net zero emission energy systems, utilizing zero- and low-carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century.
Transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050.
Accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies.
Reduce non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030.
Reduce emissions from road transport.
Phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.
What’s missing from the COP28 deal?
Some critics of the deal say that it doesn’t go far enough in cutting back on fossil fuels.
“The problem with the text is that it still includes cavernous loopholes that allow the United States and other fossil fuel producing countries to keep going on their expansion of fossil fuels,” Center for Biological Diversity energy justice director Jean Su told The Associated Press. “There’s a pretty deadly, fatal flaw in the text, which allows for transitional fuels to continue.”
What’s more, the pact does not outlaw the construction of new coal-burning power plants or include “commitments to help finance poorer nations’ energy transitions,” The New York Times reported.
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“The finance and equity provisions ... are seriously insufficient and must be improved in the time ahead in order to ensure low- and middle-income countries can transition to clean energy and close the energy poverty gap,” Rachel Cleetus, policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists, told Reuters.
Takeaways from COP28: What does the climate deal say?
Ella Nilsen and Laura Paddison, CNN
Wed, December 13, 2023
Nearly 200 countries agreed to a new climate deal at the COP28 talks in Dubai on Wednesday, after two weeks of negotiations characterized by controversy and bitter divisions over the future of fossil fuels.
The decision has been called historic, with some experts declaring that it signals the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. Others say it’s undermined by a “litany of loopholes.”
Here’s why the final agreement is dividing opinion.
What’s in the climate deal?
The agreement marks the first time the annual UN meeting has asked countries to move away from fossil fuels — the main driver of the climate crisis.
The text of the agreement “calls on” countries to “contribute” to global efforts to reduce carbon pollution. It lists a menu of actions they can take, including “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems … accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050.”
What the agreement doesn’t do is require a “phase-out” of fossil fuels. That ambitious language was supported by more than 100 countries, including the United States and European Union, but was fiercely opposed by fossil fuel states such as Saudi Arabia.
The agreement also calls for a tripling of renewable energy capacity and a doubling of energy efficiency, both by 2030.
Countries are also being asked to have detailed adaptation plans in place by 2025, to show how they intend to deal with the current and future impacts of the escalating climate crisis.
The agreement also acknowledges the need for trillions of dollars of funding to flow from rich countries to poorer, climate vulnerable ones, to help them adapt climate change and transition to renewable energy. But there are no requirements in the deal for wealthy countries to give more.
What are the loopholes?
The agreement contains a “litany of loopholes” which could “take us backward rather than forward,” Anne Rasmussen, the lead negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States, said in a speech Wednesday.
Those loopholes refer to the option for countries to accelerate zero- and low-carbon technologies, including carbon capture and storage – a set of techniques that are still being developed with the aim of removing carbon pollution from the atmosphere.
Many scientists and other experts have said that carbon capture is unproven at scale and a distraction from policies to cut fossil fuel use, potentially giving license to polluters to carry on burning fossil fuels.
The International Energy Agency sees a limited role for carbon capture in energy-hungry sectors such as steelmaking, which can’t yet be effectively powered by renewables like wind and solar.
Another “loophole” that has angered some countries and climate experts is the agreement’s recognition of a continued role for “transitional fuels” — largely interpreted to mean methane gas, a planet-heating fossil fuel.
What are people saying about the agreement?
Several climate negotiators and international groups called the final text historic and significant, while also being careful to say it does not go far enough or fast enough to rein in the climate crisis.
“The message coming out of this COP is we are moving away from fossil fuels,” US climate envoy John Kerry told reporters at a Wednesday press conference. While he acknowledged the final agreement represented a compromise, he called it a success and a vindication of multilateralism.
“We’re not turning back,” he added.
Other observers noted the text gives leeway to fossil fuel producers.
Tom Evans, a policy advisor at E3G, told CNN “there are some good elements in here but the signal on fossil fuels is muddled – it recognizes that we are turning away from fossil fuels at long last but still too slowly.”
The draft “sends a signal that the fossil industry’s days are numbered,” Teresa Anderson, global climate lead at ActionAid, said in a statement. But, she added, it still contains “offers several gifts to the greenwashers, with mentions of carbon capture and storage, so-called transition fuels, nuclear power and carbon markets.”
What else came out of COP28?
The first day of COP28 opened with a surprise agreement to adopt a climate damage fund that was the result of decades of hard-fought negotiations.
Many countries, including COP28 host country the UAE, have since made pledges totaling more than $700 million to help nations hit hardest by the climate crisis deal with its consequences.
More announcements on climate finance were made during the rest of the summit; the UAE pledged to create a $30 billion climate finance fund and put $250 million into it by the end of the decade.
During Vice President Kamala Harris’s visit to COP, the US pledged $3 billion towards the Green Climate Fund, the main finance vehicle to help developing nations adapt to the climate crisis and cut fossil fuel pollution.
Slashing emissions of methane, a powerful planet-warming gas, was also a sharp focus in the early days of the meeting. The US announced regulations to cut methane pollution from the nation’s huge oil and gas industry by nearly 80% through 2038.
And 50 major oil and gas companies, including Exxon and Saudi Aramco, signed a pledge to cut their methane emissions by the end of the decade, each committing to reduce their methane intensity by around 80% to 90% by 2030.
What comes next?
Now the deal is agreed, countries are required to update their national plans in 2025 to reduce emissions, detailing how much they’ll cut down on planet-warming pollution by 2035.
The US and China, the world’s two biggest emitters, have already jointly committed that their plans will cover all economy-wide climate pollution, and reduce emissions from non-CO2 gases such as methane and hydrofluorocarbons. That agreement marked a major commitment from China, in particular, which emits more carbon dioxide than the rest of the developed world combined.
Speaking Wednesday, Kerry said the two countries were actively encouraging the rest of the world’s nations to follow. But Kerry warned that more ambition was needed to avoid the worst impacts of the climate crisis.
“That’s our challenge. Speed it up; bring it to scale – bigger, faster,” Kerry said.
Attention will now move to next year’s summit. After a fraught selection process, Azerbaijan, another major oil and gas producing nation, was tapped to host the 2024 talks.
Latest Cop28 draft drops after day of silence and calls for ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels
Stuti Mishra and Louise Boyle
Wed, December 13, 2023
Latest Cop28 draft drops after day of silence and calls for ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels
The latest draft of the Cop28 agreement was released early on Wednesday morning after more than 24 hours of silence while negotiators wrangled over the future of fossil fuels.
The new text directly addresses fossil fuels, a central demand at this year’s global climate summit, and calls on parties to “transition away” from their use “in this critical decade”.
However the phrase “phase out” or “phase down” of fossil fuels was not reintroduced despite being called for by more than 100 countries, and being options in an earlier text. Oil-rich nations had strongly opposed this call
The draft will not become final until consensus is reached among all countries. However this text is expected to be close to the final version that goes to a vote.
The final plenary session to gavel through the decision is expected to begin at 10.30am local time.
Climate advocates said that it was positive that fossil fuels had been “brought to the table” for the first time in a Cop28 agreement.
“This text makes a clear call for the world to transition away from fossil fuels and accelerate action this decade,” said Melanie Robinson, Global Climate Program Director, World Resources Institute.
“This would dramatically move the needle in the fight against climate change and overcome immense pressure from oil and gas interests.”
Others said it did not go far enough. Jean Su, acting director of Center for Biological Diversity, said there were “cavernous holes”, when climate science, along with the futures of small island states and other vulnerable countries, were taken into consideration.
There were particular concerns about the role of “transitional fuels” and whether that would mean the continued use of natural gas, a fossil fuel. The so-called “Global Stocktake” draft in Dubai repeats a call to “accelerate efforts towards the phase down of unabated coal power” that was made in the Cop26 Glasgow Agreement two years ago.
Among other key elements of the text are:- “Transitioning away from fossil fuels” in this decade, in a “just, orderly and equitable manner” keeping the net zero goals of 2050 in mind;- Tripling renewable energy capacity globally by 2030;- “Phasing down unabated coal”;- “Accelerating zero and low emissions technologies” including nuclear, and carbon removal technologies;- Phasing out of “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies as soon as possible that do not address energy poverty or help developing countries transition to clean energy.
The Cop28 summit was now more than 12 hours into overtime after it was officially scheduled to end at 6pm, Gulf time, on Tuesday.
It has been an exhausting and emotional marathon slog to reach this point. The Monday draft of the so-called “Global Stocktake” agreement had provoked furious and heart-wrenching responses.
“We did not come here to sign our death warrant. We came here to fight for 1.5C and for the only way to achieve that: a fossil fuel phase-out … We will not go silently to our watery graves,” said John M. Silk, head of delegation for the Marshall Islands, whose low-lying island nation faces devastating sea-level rise in the coming decades.
A representative for the EU also called the draft “unacceptable” while the US said that the wording, including about fossil fuels, needed to be “substantially strengthened”.
A number of other nations, the UK among them, called the text “disappointing” and said that it needed to go further.
COP28: 5 big takeaways on a historic climate agreement
Saul Elbein
THE HILL
Wed, December 13, 2023
The roller coaster of this year’s United Nations Climate Conference (COP28) has ended with a historic new agreement: For the first time, world governments have said countries should transition away from fossil fuels.
The deal comes after days of tense negotiations, especially over the fossil fuel language, which caused the Dubai conference to stretch into overtime.
Climate advocates have praised it as a step forward, but also raised concerns about potential loopholes in its language and criticized it for not going further as the climate crisis deepens — and fossil fuel production continues to increase.
Here are five takeaways from the decision reached Wednesday:
Nations commit to transitioning from fossil fuels
The nearly 200 countries that are parties to the agreement approved language calling for “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.”
This is significantly stronger than language used in past years’ decisions, which simply called for reducing the use of coal whose emissions are not captured and did not call for reductions in oil and gas at all.
“The message coming out of this COP is: We are moving away from fossil fuels. We’re not turning back,” U.S. climate envoy John Kerry told reporters.
This outcome was hard fought. Many nations were calling for a “phase out” — or eventual elimination — of fossil fuels, but others preferred to simply reduce the use of the planet-heating fuels.
Ultimately the language they landed on is ambiguous — it’s not totally clear whether a “transition away” means moving away from the fuels entirely or just partially.
Member states were clearer on what they were transitioning toward: They agreed to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 — a move the International Energy Agency (IEA) says is vital to secure a safe climate — and to double energy efficiency.
For 30 years, global climate negotiations have never been forced to confront “that fossil fuels were the cause of the climate emergency,” said Jean Su, energy justice director at the Center for Biological Diversity.
The “big process win” of COP28 is that negotiators finally have a deal “that signals that the fossil fuel era at some point has to end,” she added.
Island nations, developing countries and climate activists say it’s not enough
Island nations, developing countries and climate activists all expressed dissatisfaction with the decision.
Anne Rasmussen, the delegate from Samoa, part of a group of small island nations that are particularly vulnerable to climate change, called the decision an ‘incremental advancement over business as usual” but said what is needed is “exponential change.”
She lamented that there was no call to peak emissions by 2025, which small island countries see as vital to protect their nations from being swamped by rising seas.
She also said that a group of island nations were literally not even in the room when the decision was adopted.
“We are a little confused about what happened. It seems that you just gaveled the decisions and the small island developing states were not in the room,” Rasmussen said during a COP meeting.
“We were working hard to coordinate the 39 small island … states that are disproportionately affected by climate change and so we were delayed in arriving here.”
Some additional criticism stemmed from the failure to secure an explicit commitment to eliminate fossil fuels — as opposed to just moving away from them — as well as what advocates see as loopholes in the text.
Su pointed to the language applying the call to transition away from fossil fuels particularly to “energy systems,” leaving other uses open.
“That allows for plastics and other non-energy forms of fossil fuels to still proliferate,” she said.
She also pointed to language in the decision that “recognizes that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition” — noting that many countries consider natural gas to fall under this category.
Natural gas is a fossil fuel that releases planet-warming greenhouse gasses when burned. It is less carbon-intensive than oil and coal, though additional emissions that come from its production and processing may cancel those benefits out, according to a study published in the journal Science.
The support for gas — and the lack of explicit financial support for developing countries in the agreement — is a particularly hard blow for African countries, many of which were in favor of a fossil fuel phaseout but can’t get there without significant upfront investment, Collin Rees of Oil Change International said.
While renewables like wind and solar cost less than gas overall — even when the cost of climate change isn’t factored in — that money has to be paid up front, while countries can buy gas tanker by tanker.
In sum, the deal “reflects the very lowest possible ambition that we could accept rather than what we know, according to the best available science, is necessary to urgently address the climate crisis,” said Madeleine Diouf, climate minister of Senegal.
Because the rule is not binding, questions surround action
While the text calls for a transition away from fossil fuels, the agreement relies on member governments to take concrete action to meet it — and it remains an open question how much action they will actually take.
Nathan Hultman, who previously worked on international climate issues for the Biden administration, acknowledged that the responsibility now lies with national governments.
“Ultimately, it’s going be up to countries to make the policy decisions,” he said. But he called the international process a “critical part” of moving action forward.
Hultman pointed to the Paris Agreement — under which countries agreed to try to keep the average global temperature increase to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) — saying that the similarly tough-to-enforce 2015 agreement “substantially accelerated action across the world.”
Others were more skeptical.
Morgan Bazilian, who attended the conference as part of the Irish delegation, told The Hill he doesn’t think countries will “make large investment or policy or regulatory decisions because of that language” calling for a transition away from fossil fuels.
One particular concern point was the failure to agree to end subsidies for fossil fuels, even as negotiators identified the fuels as the principal source of the chemicals warming the planet.
In 2022, the sixth-hottest year on record, world governments for the first time spent more than $1 trillion on subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, according to the IEA.
In the ultimate deal, member nations agreed to phase out “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible” — terms that experts say leave vast wiggle room for subsidies to remain.
This language “essentially singles out only a subset of ‘inefficient’ subsidies, which has no agreed definition anyway. Basically everyone always just determines that all of their own subsidies are efficient — so no need to do anything,” Rees of Oil Change International said.
Rees noted that language around subsidies was “stronger in earlier drafts over the last two weeks,” arguing that the influence of the more than 2,400 fossil fuel lobbyists who were given access to this year’s conference — a record number — “was very clear.”
Deal calls for limiting warming as world heads toward dangerous threshold
Ahead of COP28, the U.N. released a report finding that the world was on track to warm by an average of about 2.9 degrees Celsius (5.2 degrees Fahrenheit) — nearly double the goal that climate scientists believe would prevent the worst effects of climate change.
At the summit, global leaders were tasked with taking stock of their progress and looking to do more.
The final text notes that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees “requires deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions” including cutting emissions 43 percent by 2030 and 60 percent by 2035 compared to 2019 levels.
It also calls on countries to contribute to global efforts including the transition away from fossil fuels, a reduction in coal whose emissions are not mitigated through carbon capture, reducing methane emissions by 2030, and tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency.
Hultman, who is now the director of the University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability, said that the ultimate decision text provides a “good set of guiding ideas” as countries work on their 2035 climate targets.
“Having this global conversation is part of the overall guidance that countries can be thinking about and they will be now trying to better understand their pathways to higher ambition in the 2035 period,” he said.
Challenges loom for the US
While the U.S. has passed significant climate legislation and taken regulatory actions to limit greenhouse gasses under the Biden administration, the goals set by the agreement could mean even more work to do.
President Biden, in a written statement, celebrated the agreement, and particularly its call for a transition away from fossil fuels, as a “historic milestone.”
“While there is still substantial work ahead of us to keep the 1.5 degree C goal within reach, today’s outcome puts us one significant step closer,” he said in a written statement.
Kerry, the U.S. climate envoy, praised the U.S. for “leading the charge on the home front” through the Biden administration’s signature 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The IRA is a major climate bill with significant subsidies for renewables that was only supported by Democrats. He also pointed toward billions of dollars of U.S. funding to cut emissions and boost clean energy at home and abroad.
Yet many hurdles still remain for getting more renewables onto the U.S. grid.
And while the country has taken steps aimed at reducing its own reliance on fossil fuels, drilling in the U.S. is currently at an all-time high, and it has made decisions that are expected to expand the use of the fuels globally.
Under the COP process, however, progress on national climate targets is focused on emissions that directly occur in a certain country — rather than those that come from oil produced in one country and used in another.
Because of this, Hultman said, “there’s not an inherent conflict between us having deep emissions reduction goals in the US and achieving them” while continuing to produce oil and gas for export.
But he said that ultimately the nation would have to specifically address its own oil and gas production.
One specific wrinkle in doing so, however, is the peculiar structure of the U.S. oil and gas industry, which is dominated by private companies choosing whether or not to drill on privately owned lands.
That separates the U.S. from countries like Russia, Brazil or the United Arab Emirates where publicly owned oil companies control the industry.
“It’s not like the national oil companies in other countries are going to be running to [move off fossil fuels] either,” Bazilian of the Colorado School of Mines told The Hill.
But in the U.S. oil patch specifically, he said, “the nature of the distributed decision making process makes this extremely difficult,” and the way the language around the transition away from fossil fuels would play out in the U.S. “is highly unclear.”
“I think it will largely be ignored,” Bazilian added.
But many of these questions may become moot if Republicans win control in 2024.
While a handful of Republican congressional members went to Dubai to participate in the climate conference, the party as a whole has been hostile to the COP process — and to the broader goal of moving off fossil fuels.
Republicans have also repeatedly attempted to strip green energy tax credits and pass resolutions repealing climate regulations.
House Resolution 1, the GOP’s signature energy package, would zero out the Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, a “green bank” aimed at promoting clean energy, as well as fees on fossil fuel companies’ release of methane, a planet-warming chemical dozens of times more potent than carbon dioxide.
And while the climate solutions Republicans promoted at the summit have some overlap with Democrats’ plans to scale up clean energy supply chains, they also rely heavily on nuclear and natural gas.
Meanwhile, former President Trump, who is currently the front-runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination and who pulled the U.S. out of the 2015 Paris Agreement during his time in the White House, has been telling crowds that he would be “a dictator” on “day one” of his presidency, at which point he promised to use his executive power to promote “drilling, drilling, drilling” for fossil fuels.
But Kerry noted that — even with Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement factored in — the world was still making vital progress.
At the time of the 2015 deal — which he attended as then-President Obama’s secretary of State — “the world was headed toward as much as 4 degrees [Celsius] of warming,” Kerry said.
“So it is a privilege to be here, eight years later … with nations around the world committed to taking the actions necessary to keep 1.5 C alive.”
Analysis: At COP28, Sultan al-Jaber got what the UAE wanted. Others leave it wanting much more
Wed, December 13, 2023
The roller coaster of this year’s United Nations Climate Conference (COP28) has ended with a historic new agreement: For the first time, world governments have said countries should transition away from fossil fuels.
The deal comes after days of tense negotiations, especially over the fossil fuel language, which caused the Dubai conference to stretch into overtime.
Climate advocates have praised it as a step forward, but also raised concerns about potential loopholes in its language and criticized it for not going further as the climate crisis deepens — and fossil fuel production continues to increase.
Here are five takeaways from the decision reached Wednesday:
Nations commit to transitioning from fossil fuels
The nearly 200 countries that are parties to the agreement approved language calling for “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.”
This is significantly stronger than language used in past years’ decisions, which simply called for reducing the use of coal whose emissions are not captured and did not call for reductions in oil and gas at all.
“The message coming out of this COP is: We are moving away from fossil fuels. We’re not turning back,” U.S. climate envoy John Kerry told reporters.
This outcome was hard fought. Many nations were calling for a “phase out” — or eventual elimination — of fossil fuels, but others preferred to simply reduce the use of the planet-heating fuels.
Ultimately the language they landed on is ambiguous — it’s not totally clear whether a “transition away” means moving away from the fuels entirely or just partially.
Member states were clearer on what they were transitioning toward: They agreed to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 — a move the International Energy Agency (IEA) says is vital to secure a safe climate — and to double energy efficiency.
For 30 years, global climate negotiations have never been forced to confront “that fossil fuels were the cause of the climate emergency,” said Jean Su, energy justice director at the Center for Biological Diversity.
The “big process win” of COP28 is that negotiators finally have a deal “that signals that the fossil fuel era at some point has to end,” she added.
Island nations, developing countries and climate activists say it’s not enough
Island nations, developing countries and climate activists all expressed dissatisfaction with the decision.
Anne Rasmussen, the delegate from Samoa, part of a group of small island nations that are particularly vulnerable to climate change, called the decision an ‘incremental advancement over business as usual” but said what is needed is “exponential change.”
She lamented that there was no call to peak emissions by 2025, which small island countries see as vital to protect their nations from being swamped by rising seas.
She also said that a group of island nations were literally not even in the room when the decision was adopted.
“We are a little confused about what happened. It seems that you just gaveled the decisions and the small island developing states were not in the room,” Rasmussen said during a COP meeting.
“We were working hard to coordinate the 39 small island … states that are disproportionately affected by climate change and so we were delayed in arriving here.”
Some additional criticism stemmed from the failure to secure an explicit commitment to eliminate fossil fuels — as opposed to just moving away from them — as well as what advocates see as loopholes in the text.
Su pointed to the language applying the call to transition away from fossil fuels particularly to “energy systems,” leaving other uses open.
“That allows for plastics and other non-energy forms of fossil fuels to still proliferate,” she said.
She also pointed to language in the decision that “recognizes that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition” — noting that many countries consider natural gas to fall under this category.
Natural gas is a fossil fuel that releases planet-warming greenhouse gasses when burned. It is less carbon-intensive than oil and coal, though additional emissions that come from its production and processing may cancel those benefits out, according to a study published in the journal Science.
The support for gas — and the lack of explicit financial support for developing countries in the agreement — is a particularly hard blow for African countries, many of which were in favor of a fossil fuel phaseout but can’t get there without significant upfront investment, Collin Rees of Oil Change International said.
While renewables like wind and solar cost less than gas overall — even when the cost of climate change isn’t factored in — that money has to be paid up front, while countries can buy gas tanker by tanker.
In sum, the deal “reflects the very lowest possible ambition that we could accept rather than what we know, according to the best available science, is necessary to urgently address the climate crisis,” said Madeleine Diouf, climate minister of Senegal.
Because the rule is not binding, questions surround action
While the text calls for a transition away from fossil fuels, the agreement relies on member governments to take concrete action to meet it — and it remains an open question how much action they will actually take.
Nathan Hultman, who previously worked on international climate issues for the Biden administration, acknowledged that the responsibility now lies with national governments.
“Ultimately, it’s going be up to countries to make the policy decisions,” he said. But he called the international process a “critical part” of moving action forward.
Hultman pointed to the Paris Agreement — under which countries agreed to try to keep the average global temperature increase to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) — saying that the similarly tough-to-enforce 2015 agreement “substantially accelerated action across the world.”
Others were more skeptical.
Morgan Bazilian, who attended the conference as part of the Irish delegation, told The Hill he doesn’t think countries will “make large investment or policy or regulatory decisions because of that language” calling for a transition away from fossil fuels.
One particular concern point was the failure to agree to end subsidies for fossil fuels, even as negotiators identified the fuels as the principal source of the chemicals warming the planet.
In 2022, the sixth-hottest year on record, world governments for the first time spent more than $1 trillion on subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, according to the IEA.
In the ultimate deal, member nations agreed to phase out “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible” — terms that experts say leave vast wiggle room for subsidies to remain.
This language “essentially singles out only a subset of ‘inefficient’ subsidies, which has no agreed definition anyway. Basically everyone always just determines that all of their own subsidies are efficient — so no need to do anything,” Rees of Oil Change International said.
Rees noted that language around subsidies was “stronger in earlier drafts over the last two weeks,” arguing that the influence of the more than 2,400 fossil fuel lobbyists who were given access to this year’s conference — a record number — “was very clear.”
Deal calls for limiting warming as world heads toward dangerous threshold
Ahead of COP28, the U.N. released a report finding that the world was on track to warm by an average of about 2.9 degrees Celsius (5.2 degrees Fahrenheit) — nearly double the goal that climate scientists believe would prevent the worst effects of climate change.
At the summit, global leaders were tasked with taking stock of their progress and looking to do more.
The final text notes that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees “requires deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions” including cutting emissions 43 percent by 2030 and 60 percent by 2035 compared to 2019 levels.
It also calls on countries to contribute to global efforts including the transition away from fossil fuels, a reduction in coal whose emissions are not mitigated through carbon capture, reducing methane emissions by 2030, and tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency.
Hultman, who is now the director of the University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability, said that the ultimate decision text provides a “good set of guiding ideas” as countries work on their 2035 climate targets.
“Having this global conversation is part of the overall guidance that countries can be thinking about and they will be now trying to better understand their pathways to higher ambition in the 2035 period,” he said.
Challenges loom for the US
While the U.S. has passed significant climate legislation and taken regulatory actions to limit greenhouse gasses under the Biden administration, the goals set by the agreement could mean even more work to do.
President Biden, in a written statement, celebrated the agreement, and particularly its call for a transition away from fossil fuels, as a “historic milestone.”
“While there is still substantial work ahead of us to keep the 1.5 degree C goal within reach, today’s outcome puts us one significant step closer,” he said in a written statement.
Kerry, the U.S. climate envoy, praised the U.S. for “leading the charge on the home front” through the Biden administration’s signature 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The IRA is a major climate bill with significant subsidies for renewables that was only supported by Democrats. He also pointed toward billions of dollars of U.S. funding to cut emissions and boost clean energy at home and abroad.
Yet many hurdles still remain for getting more renewables onto the U.S. grid.
And while the country has taken steps aimed at reducing its own reliance on fossil fuels, drilling in the U.S. is currently at an all-time high, and it has made decisions that are expected to expand the use of the fuels globally.
Under the COP process, however, progress on national climate targets is focused on emissions that directly occur in a certain country — rather than those that come from oil produced in one country and used in another.
Because of this, Hultman said, “there’s not an inherent conflict between us having deep emissions reduction goals in the US and achieving them” while continuing to produce oil and gas for export.
But he said that ultimately the nation would have to specifically address its own oil and gas production.
One specific wrinkle in doing so, however, is the peculiar structure of the U.S. oil and gas industry, which is dominated by private companies choosing whether or not to drill on privately owned lands.
That separates the U.S. from countries like Russia, Brazil or the United Arab Emirates where publicly owned oil companies control the industry.
“It’s not like the national oil companies in other countries are going to be running to [move off fossil fuels] either,” Bazilian of the Colorado School of Mines told The Hill.
But in the U.S. oil patch specifically, he said, “the nature of the distributed decision making process makes this extremely difficult,” and the way the language around the transition away from fossil fuels would play out in the U.S. “is highly unclear.”
“I think it will largely be ignored,” Bazilian added.
But many of these questions may become moot if Republicans win control in 2024.
While a handful of Republican congressional members went to Dubai to participate in the climate conference, the party as a whole has been hostile to the COP process — and to the broader goal of moving off fossil fuels.
Republicans have also repeatedly attempted to strip green energy tax credits and pass resolutions repealing climate regulations.
House Resolution 1, the GOP’s signature energy package, would zero out the Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, a “green bank” aimed at promoting clean energy, as well as fees on fossil fuel companies’ release of methane, a planet-warming chemical dozens of times more potent than carbon dioxide.
And while the climate solutions Republicans promoted at the summit have some overlap with Democrats’ plans to scale up clean energy supply chains, they also rely heavily on nuclear and natural gas.
Meanwhile, former President Trump, who is currently the front-runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination and who pulled the U.S. out of the 2015 Paris Agreement during his time in the White House, has been telling crowds that he would be “a dictator” on “day one” of his presidency, at which point he promised to use his executive power to promote “drilling, drilling, drilling” for fossil fuels.
But Kerry noted that — even with Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement factored in — the world was still making vital progress.
At the time of the 2015 deal — which he attended as then-President Obama’s secretary of State — “the world was headed toward as much as 4 degrees [Celsius] of warming,” Kerry said.
“So it is a privilege to be here, eight years later … with nations around the world committed to taking the actions necessary to keep 1.5 C alive.”
Analysis: At COP28, Sultan al-Jaber got what the UAE wanted. Others leave it wanting much more
JON GAMBRELL
Updated Wed, December 13, 2023 a
COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber leaves a plenary session at the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit, Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. (AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili)
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — As the United Nations COP28 climate summit ended Wednesday, Sultan al-Jaber walked out with what the United Arab Emirates wanted all along — the prestige of hosting negotiations that got the world to agree to transition away from fossil fuels while still being able to pump ever-more oil.
That left some wanting much more from the two weeks of talks, even as many praised its historic accord. But it no longer will matter to the state oil company chief executive and renewable energy advocate who embodies many of the traits that have propelled this young nation into the global spotlight.
Al-Jaber, who as president of COP28 facilitated the negotiations, faced criticism and scrutiny from the moment he took the position due to his oil ties. He tried to disarm critics among the delegates through an Emirati tradition, at one point convening a “majlis," or a traditional ruler's sitting room to listen to concerns that he said he wanted not to have been laundered through layers of diplomacy and bureaucracy. Most still were.
But after an initial proposal drew screams, al-Jaber and his entourage presented another early Wednesday that gained the consensus required in the COP process.
And for all words written, said and broadcast about this global event, it really just boiled down to 34 in one clause-packed sentence: “Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”
After the agreement's adoption, al-Jaber received immediate support from some on hand.
“I have to say that the people that has criticizing Dr. Sultan and the UAE owe them an apology,” said Dan Jørgensen, Denmark’s climate minister. "They have been a transparent and inclusive presidency.”
Others offered a more critical take, noting that al-Jaber's Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. still plans to boost its oil production up to 5 million barrels of crude a day. That means more of the carbon-belching fuels driving climate change — which cause more-intense and more-frequent extreme events such as storms, droughts, floods and wildfires.
“The atmosphere responds to one thing: Emissions. It’s physics, stupid," said Alden Meyer, a senior associate at the independent climate change think tank E3G. "And all the declarations, all the decisions, all the platitudes, all the announcements in the world, if it doesn’t translate into real world action that reduces emissions, is not worth the paper it’s written on.”
Though hosted in Dubai, the final agreement reached at the summit ended up being called "the UAE Consensus," an extremely unusual move as other deals have been named after their cities, like the landmark Paris Accords or the Kyoto Protocol. All this feeds into the wider ambitions of the UAE, an autocratic federation of seven sheikhdoms, to grow its political stature in the international arena and to punch beyond its weight while further unifying this country that only formed in 1971.
Al-Jaber, long a trusted technocrat under leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, ultimately had only one boss to satisfy. But reaching the deal here also required negotiating across fractious coalitions of countries that emerged at the talks.
The traditional Western nations held largely similar views, with U.S. envoy John Kerry staying close to al-Jaber in the months leading up the talks. The growing powers of China and India focused on ensuring their rise wouldn't be curtailed through shutting off their coal-fired power plants. And the Gulf crude producers, led by neighboring Saudi Arabia, want to make sure their oil fields pump into the next generation to fuel their economic ambitions.
There were protests, both outside in the United Nations-administered Blue Zone at the summit and on the plenary floor, with 12-year-old activist Licypriya Kangujam rushing to the front to hold up a sign declaring: “End Fossil Fuel. Save Our Planet And Our Future.”
In a country where political dissidents face imprisonment, the Emiratis exercised restraint as U.N. officers oversaw those limited demonstrations as their tight grip across the rest of this monitored nation remained unchallenged.
Yet the al-Jaber-engineered deal faced criticism in the end.
“Many people here would have liked clearer language about the need to begin peaking and reducing fossil fuels in this critical decade,” Kerry told the summit. “But we know this was a compromise between many parties.”
An even-more stinging rebuke came from Samoa's lead negotiator Anne Rasmussen, who highlighted what she described as "a litany of loopholes" in the final agreement.
“We didn’t want to interrupt the standing ovation when came into the room, but we are a little confused about what happened,” Rasmussen said. “It seems that you just gaveled the decisions and the small island developing states were not in the room.”
She added: "It is not enough for us to reference the science and then make agreements that ignore what the science is telling us we need to do. This is not an approach that we should be asked to defend.”
The science says the world must work to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
Rasmussen's remarks earned her a standing ovation at the summit, longer than that greeting the “UAE Consensus.” Al-Jaber sat, grimacing slightly for a few moments.
In the end, though, he stood up to applaud the Samoan as well. It was enough to have already won the war.
___
EDITOR’S NOTE — Jon Gambrell, the news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the world since joining the AP in 2006.
___
Associated Press journalist David Keyton contributed.
___
Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
Nearly 200 countries agreed to a historic climate deal. Here’s what’s included — and what’s missing
Hannah Murdock
Wed, December 13, 2023 at 8:16 AM MST·2 min read
47
United Nations Climate Chief Simon Stiell, left, and COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber pose for photos at the end of the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit, Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. | Kamran Jebreili, Associated Press
Nearly 200 countries agreed Wednesday to a historic climate deal that calls for a global transition away from fossil fuels.
Following days of negotiations, the U.N. climate summit in Dubai agreed on a new deal that includes its first ever call to move away from the use of fossil fuels.
“We have language on fossil fuel in our final agreement for the first time ever,” COP28 president Sultan al-Jaber said.
The deal, notably, does not include a global “phase out” of fossil fuels, as nearly 100 countries called for in a joint statement. Rather, the deal calls on countries to “transition away” from fossil fuels, which some critics are calling a loophole that will allow countries to continue drilling and contributing to climate change.
Below is a breakdown of what is included in the climate deal and what’s missing:
What’s included in the COP28 deal?
The deal calls on nations to:
Triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030.
Double energy efficiency improvements at a global scale by 2030.
Accelerate efforts toward the phase-down of unabated coal power.
Accelerate efforts globally toward net zero emission energy systems, utilizing zero- and low-carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century.
Transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050.
Accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies.
Reduce non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030.
Reduce emissions from road transport.
Phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.
What’s missing from the COP28 deal?
Some critics of the deal say that it doesn’t go far enough in cutting back on fossil fuels.
“The problem with the text is that it still includes cavernous loopholes that allow the United States and other fossil fuel producing countries to keep going on their expansion of fossil fuels,” Center for Biological Diversity energy justice director Jean Su told The Associated Press. “There’s a pretty deadly, fatal flaw in the text, which allows for transitional fuels to continue.”
What’s more, the pact does not outlaw the construction of new coal-burning power plants or include “commitments to help finance poorer nations’ energy transitions,” The New York Times reported.
Related
Rep. John Curtis defends clean fossil fuels at contentious climate conference
What did Kamala Harris say in Dubai climate summit?
“The finance and equity provisions ... are seriously insufficient and must be improved in the time ahead in order to ensure low- and middle-income countries can transition to clean energy and close the energy poverty gap,” Rachel Cleetus, policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists, told Reuters.
UAE's Jaber, oil boss who brokered 'beginning of end' for fossil fuels
AFP
Wed, December 13, 2023
Sultan Al Jaber, the UAE oil chief who headed COP28 in Dubai, promised that this year's UN climate talks would be "different". He did not disappoint.
The towering Emirati, 50, was beaming in his grey dishdasha after he brought down the hammer on the first United Nations agreement calling for a transition away from fossil fuels.
It ended a Conference of the Parties (COP) of contradictions in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates, which is one of the world's biggest producers of crude.
Jaber is CEO of oil giant ADNOC as well as being the UAE's climate envoy and minister of industry and advanced technology. He is also chairman of renewable energy company Masdar.
His naming as COP28 chief drew conflict-of-interest concerns at a time of increasingly stark warnings about the urgency of transitioning away from hydrocarbons to have a hope of keeping climate targets in view.
Dozens of US and European lawmakers said Jaber's oil and gas links should disqualify him from the job. Hundreds of climate campaign groups called for him to quit either COP or ADNOC.
"COP28 is beset by a dark cloud of -- entirely warranted -- public scepticism," US Senator Sheldon Whitehouse said at the time.
But Jaber will now claim vindication after presiding over a deal described by UN climate chief Simon Stiell as the "beginning of the end" for fossil fuels.
"Together, we have confronted the realities and we have set the world in the right direction," Jaber told the cavernous auditorium on the outskirts of Dubai.
"We have given it a robust action plan to keep 1.5 within reach."
- High stakes -
Before COP, Jaber was in less jubilant mood, bristling at accusations of a conflict of interest.
"I'm someone who spent the majority of his career in sustainability, in sustainable economic development and project management, and renewable energy," he told AFP in July.
Indeed, he founded state-owned renewable energy company Masdar a decade before he took the helm of ADNOC with a mandate to "decarbonise" and "future-proof" the gas and petrol giant.
The stakes were exceptionally high for COP28.
The most ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement was to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, although UN climate experts warned this year that we are hurtling towards breaching that guardrail in the 2030s.
During months of frenetic travel that saw him criss-cross the planet, Jaber managed to win over some sceptics.
Harjeet Singh, of the influential coalition Climate Action Network International, said a turning point came in July, when Jaber wrote that "phasing down demand for, and supply of, all fossil fuels is inevitable and essential".
"He's very straightforward, he's open to listening," Singh told AFP, though the pair "agree to disagree" on several issues.
Those disagreements included the prominence given to fossil fuel lobbyists, whose accreditations numbered a record 2,456 in Dubai, according to campaign groups -- more than every national delegation apart from the UAE and Brazil.
- Strong start -
Another point of difference was Jaber's endorsement of controversial carbon capture technologies that trap emissions and store them permanently.
ADNOC made a commitment in July to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045 for its own operations.
But that target does not include emissions produced by the oil and gas burned by its customers, which account for the vast majority of its carbon footprint.
Jaber's COP started strongly when he passed a landmark loss and damage fund on day one, when the two-week meeting had barely started.
Several pledges followed, including the UAE's $30 billion private investment fund focused on climate projects in developing countries.
Talks then went into overtime, after a dispute over including "phasing out" or "phasing down" fossil fuels, before a compromise was struck and hastily passed on Wednesday.
Dubai climate summit adopts world-first 'transition' from fossil fuels
Laurent Thomet, Shaun Tandon, Hachem Osseiran and Talek Harris
Wed, December 13, 2023
COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber said the summit brought 'transformational change' to the planet (Giuseppe CACACE)
Nearly 200 nations meeting in Dubai on Wednesday approved a first-ever call for the world to transition away from fossil fuels, tackling the top culprit of climate change after years of avoidance although at-risk countries said far more action was needed.
After 13 days of talks and several sleepless nights in a country built on oil wealth, the Emirati president of the UN-led COP28 summit banged a gavel to signal the world had reached consensus.
"You did step up, you showed flexibility, you put common interest ahead of self-interest," said COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber, whose role as head of the United Arab Emirates' national oil company raised suspicion among many environmentalists.
Describing the deal as bringing "transformational change" on climate, Jaber said of the UAE's diplomacy: "We have helped restore faith and trust in multilateralism, and we have shown that humanity can come together."
EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra called the agreement "long, long overdue", saying it had taken nearly 30 years of climate meeting to "arrive at the beginning of the end of fossil fuels".
But with the UN talks requiring consensus, Jaber carefully calibrated the text to bring onboard countries from islands that fear extinction from rising sea levels to oil giant Saudi Arabia, which led the charge to keep exporting its petroleum.
Toughening language from an earlier draft that was roundly denounced by environmentalists, the agreement calls for "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner".
It calls for expanding action "in this critical decade" and recommits to no net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 in hopes of meeting the increasingly elusive goal of checking warming at 1.5 degrees (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.
The planet has already warmed by 1.2 degrees and scientists say 2023 was likely the warmest in 100,000 years, as storms, droughts and lethal wildfires expand around the world.
- Islanders still alarmed -
The negotiator from the Marshall Islands had warned that an earlier draft marked a "death warrant" for his nation, which is just 2.1 metres (seven feet) above sea level.
The small islands did not block the Dubai deal, but a representative from Samoa criticised the language as too weak after contending the group had not arrived yet in the room at Dubai's sprawling Expo City when Jaber declared consensus.
"We have made an incremental advancement over business as usual when what we really needed is an exponential step change in our actions," Samoan chief negotiator Anne Rasmussen said on behalf of the island nations, drawing a standing ovation and polite applause from Jaber.
Brazil, which will lead the climate talks in 2025 in the Amazon, said that wealthy nations must now deliver on another key climate pledge -- providing assistance to worst-hit developing nations.
But US climate envoy John Kerry said that no side can ever achieve everything in negotiations and praised the deal as a sign a war-torn world can come together for the common good.
"I think everyone has to agree this is much stronger and clearer as a call on 1.5 than we have ever heard before, and it clearly reflects what the science says," Kerry said.
A Saudi representative voiced "gratitude" to the UAE efforts, calling the outcome a "great success".
The text stopped short of backing appeals during the summit for a "phase-out" of oil, gas and coal, which together account for around three-quarters of the emissions responsible for the planetary crisis.
But it goes well beyond Jaber's earlier draft that merely suggested that nations "could" reduce the consumption and production of fossil fuels, among other options.
Environmentalists virtually all saw the agreement as a step forward, although many cautioned that there will still far more to do.
"We are finally naming the elephant in the room. The genie is never going back into the bottle and future COPs will only turn the screws even more on dirty energy," said Mohamed Adow, director of the Power Shift Africa think tank, referring to the annual UN climate meetings known as Conferences of the Parties.
"Some people may have had their expectations for this meeting raised too high, but this result would have been unheard of two years ago, especially at a COP meeting in a petrostate," he said.
- More ambition, but with loopholes -
The agreement also made more explicit the near-term goals in the goal of ending net emissions by 2050.
It called for the world to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent by 2030 compared with 2019 levels.
But Jean Su of the Center for Biological Diversity, while seeing progress, said there were still "cavernous loopholes" for fossil fuels.
The agreement tackles only fossil use in energy, not in industrial areas such as production of plastics and fertiliser.
She also voiced alarm at the recognition of the role of "transitional fuels", which she saw as a codeword for producers of natural gas and other fossil fuels such as the United States on the grounds of energy security.
The deal backs a phase-down of "unabated" coal power -- meaning it preserves a role for the dirty but politically sensitive energy source if there is use of carbon capture technology, panned by many environmentalists as unproven.
bur-sct/lth/giv
Historic or half measures? Breaking down the UN climate deal
What the COP28 final agreement includes and what it doesn't
CBC
Updated Wed, December 13, 2023
United Nations Climate Chief Simon Stiell, from left, COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber and Hana Al-Hashimi, chief COP28 negotiator for the United Arab Emirates, pose for photos at the end of the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit, Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)
Nearly 200 countries have recognized the need to move away from fossil fuels in what is being celebrated as a landmark deal at the United Nations climate talks that came to a close Wednesday in Dubai.
COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber described the agreement as a "historic package to accelerate climate action."
But many also warned it contained a "litany of loopholes" that would make it difficult, if not impossible, to limit warming to the internationally agreed target of 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels.
The 1.5 C benchmark is viewed as crucial in limiting the most catastrophic impacts from climate change, and this year's gathering was seen as pivotal after a year of record-setting heat and extreme weather.
Here's a look at what's in the agreement, what's not and what it means for the years ahead.
A transition, but not a 'phaseout'
For the first time in 28 years of UN climate talks, the final agreement makes mention of fossil fuels — by far the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions — and recognizes the need to transition away from them.
The agreement also acknowledges the goal of limiting emissions to keep warming to 1.5 C and stresses it would require "deep, rapid and sustained reductions" of 43 per cent emissions cut by 2030, relative to 2019 levels. The world has already warmed by 1.2 C.
COP28 reaches groundbreaking climate deal in Dubai calling for 'transitioning away from fossil fuels'
But the agreement doesn't outline how that would be achieved. There is no mention of a "phaseout" of fossil fuels — the terminology many countries and advocates had called for.
Instead, it recognizes the importance of "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade."
It also recognizes that "transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security," which climate activists derided as a way to promote natural gas instead of renewable energy.
Wiggle room on emissions
The agreement leaves ample room for emissions of individual nations to peak beyond 2025, even though it recognizes the findings of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report that concluded carbon pollution must peak by 2025 to limit warming to 1.5 C.
As it stands, the world is not on pace to limit warming. Global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.2 per cent from 2021 to 2022 to reach a new record last year, according to a recent UN report.
In that report, the world is on pace to warm by as much as 2.9 C by the end of the century — nearly double the international target agreed upon in Paris. Current and planned coal, oil and gas projects would result in 3.5 times more carbon emissions than required to limit warming to 1.5 C.
Canada, the fourth-largest oil producer in the world, is among the countries set to increase production next year.
"Canada and just four other countries are responsible for over half of the planned expansion of oil and gas production. Allowing that expansion to go ahead is a death sentence for millions around the world," said Julia Levin, associate director of the Canadian advocacy group Environmental Defence.
Updated Wed, December 13, 2023
United Nations Climate Chief Simon Stiell, from left, COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber and Hana Al-Hashimi, chief COP28 negotiator for the United Arab Emirates, pose for photos at the end of the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit, Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)
Nearly 200 countries have recognized the need to move away from fossil fuels in what is being celebrated as a landmark deal at the United Nations climate talks that came to a close Wednesday in Dubai.
COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber described the agreement as a "historic package to accelerate climate action."
But many also warned it contained a "litany of loopholes" that would make it difficult, if not impossible, to limit warming to the internationally agreed target of 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels.
The 1.5 C benchmark is viewed as crucial in limiting the most catastrophic impacts from climate change, and this year's gathering was seen as pivotal after a year of record-setting heat and extreme weather.
Here's a look at what's in the agreement, what's not and what it means for the years ahead.
A transition, but not a 'phaseout'
For the first time in 28 years of UN climate talks, the final agreement makes mention of fossil fuels — by far the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions — and recognizes the need to transition away from them.
The agreement also acknowledges the goal of limiting emissions to keep warming to 1.5 C and stresses it would require "deep, rapid and sustained reductions" of 43 per cent emissions cut by 2030, relative to 2019 levels. The world has already warmed by 1.2 C.
COP28 reaches groundbreaking climate deal in Dubai calling for 'transitioning away from fossil fuels'
But the agreement doesn't outline how that would be achieved. There is no mention of a "phaseout" of fossil fuels — the terminology many countries and advocates had called for.
Instead, it recognizes the importance of "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade."
It also recognizes that "transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security," which climate activists derided as a way to promote natural gas instead of renewable energy.
Wiggle room on emissions
The agreement leaves ample room for emissions of individual nations to peak beyond 2025, even though it recognizes the findings of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report that concluded carbon pollution must peak by 2025 to limit warming to 1.5 C.
As it stands, the world is not on pace to limit warming. Global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.2 per cent from 2021 to 2022 to reach a new record last year, according to a recent UN report.
In that report, the world is on pace to warm by as much as 2.9 C by the end of the century — nearly double the international target agreed upon in Paris. Current and planned coal, oil and gas projects would result in 3.5 times more carbon emissions than required to limit warming to 1.5 C.
Canada, the fourth-largest oil producer in the world, is among the countries set to increase production next year.
"Canada and just four other countries are responsible for over half of the planned expansion of oil and gas production. Allowing that expansion to go ahead is a death sentence for millions around the world," said Julia Levin, associate director of the Canadian advocacy group Environmental Defence.
Workers move items as COP28 comes to an end in Dubai. (Rafiq Maqbool/Associated Press)
Renewables need to triple, but how?
The document also recognizes the need to triple "renewable energy capacity globally and double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030."
Calgary-based Pembina Institute says the emphasis on renewables should be a signal for Canada, and particularly Alberta, to put more effort into renewable energy.
"While much work remains, what is beyond doubt is that Canada cannot ignore the challenges and opportunities represented by the energy transition currently underway," said executive director Chris Severson-Baker.
But it's unclear how tripling renewable energy worldwide will be achieved, and there are no specifics on money to help developing countries fund that transition.
With El Niño expected to stretch into the winter, all eyes are on 2024
Kaisa Kosonen of Greenpeace International said the "outcome leaves poorer countries well short of the resources they will need for renewable energy transition and other needs."
She said rich countries will need to significantly step up financial support and make fossil fuel polluters pay if the many goals of the agreement are to be realized.
Help for developing countries, but more
The agreement does, however, put into effect a "loss and damage" fund that had been agreed upon earlier in the summit. The fund is designed to help developing countries cope with the impacts of climate change such as floods, drought and rising sea levels.
Canada's Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault announced an initial commitment of $16 million toward the loss and damage fund. In all, the world's richest countries have committed $700 million to the fund — an amount that falls far short of the $400 billion estimated to be required.
Soon after the final agreement was adopted, Anne Rasmussen, Samoa's lead delegate and the representative for a group of small island nations, said "the course correction that is needed has not been secured."
Rasmussen said the deal represented business as usual instead of exponential emission-cutting efforts and warned it could "potentially take us backward rather than forward."
Will this change anything?
The agreement is non-binding, but experts say these kinds of documents can still serve as an important reference point both domestically and internationally.
Jessica Green, a political science professor at University of Toronto and expert in global climate governance, said the Dubai agreement can be considered a "diplomatic success but a policy failure."
Like many previous UN climate meetings, Green said the gathering in Dubai didn't result in firm commitments to change course.
Reaching a consensus among so many countries with such different interests is filled with challenges, but she said at the very least the agreement will set expectations on points such as the need for funding toward climate adaptation and renewable energy.
"The multilateral process will continue to lurch forward," Green said.
Shift away from fossil fuels now or face nearly 3 C warming by century's end: UN
Simon Stiell, the UN Climate Change executive secretary, summed up the deal as an "amber light' when a "green light" was the goal but said there are now "paths forward."
Environmental activists were hoping countries at COP28 would agree to completely phase out fossil fuels by 2050. (Kyle Bakx/CBC)
Al Gore, a former U.S. vice president and Nobel Peace Prize winning climate activist, said while the agreement was an important milestone in recognizing the "climate crisis is at its heart a fossil fuel crisis," he added that "the influence of petrostates is still evident in the half measures and loopholes" in the agreement.
In his view, whether this amounts to a turning point "depends on the actions that come next."
Climate summit makes ‘historic progress’ — but the world still can’t quit oil
Karl Mathiesen, Zia Weise, Zack Colman and Sara Schonhardt
Wed, December 13, 2023
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Climate talks in Dubai ended with a deal to curb the use of fossil fuels that was both historic and 30 years too late.
The two-week conference, held in the oil-rich desert kingdom of the United Arab Emirates and presided over by an oil CEO, brought two competing realities into a painful collision. The planet is overheating, yet humanity remains inextricably reliant on coal, oil and natural gas.
The talks ended on Wednesday with a deal among almost 200 countries that committed to “transitioning away from fossil fuels,” notably by speeding up that shift before 2030. But the agreement also appeased oil-rich Gulf states by explicitly sanctioning those fuels’ use during the transition. And organizers gaveled it through so hastily that representatives for vulnerable island nations, who had a series of misgivings about the text, had yet to enter the room.
Still, leaders of the U.N. summit and representatives of major governments were quick to endorse the nonbinding pact as a historic acknowledgment that the world needs to move quickly to cleaner energy sources.
“This document sends very strong messages to the world," said U.S. climate envoy John Kerry, who had placed his personal credibility on the line by backing the controversial choice of oil CEO Sultan al-Jaber to oversee the conference.
“This is much stronger and clearer as a call” for halting global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius — the ambitious, increasingly out-of-reach goal of global climate negotiators — “than we have ever heard before,” he said.
Kerry also announced that China and the U.S. had agreed to update their long-term plans for tackling climate change in light of the progress made at the talks.
“This is historic progress,” said Danish Climate Minister Dan Jørgensen. “I can totally understand if our populations think that it's a disgrace that it had to take 28 years. But now we're here. We're in an oil country surrounded by oil countries that are now signing a piece of paper saying we need to move away from oil. It is historic.”
Others said the COP28 deal was just a start.
“We also needed to signal a hard stop to humanity's core climate problem, fossil fuels and their planet burning pollution,” said Simon Stiell, the United Nations’ climate chief. “Whilst we didn't turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the beginning of the end.”
Spanish Ecological Transition Minister Teresa Ribera said that “there are many things we miss in this text, but we sincerely believe that this is an important step forward.”
And still others said the agreement falls short of what the warming world needs.
“The influence of petrostates is still evident in the half measures and loopholes included in the final agreement,” former U.S. Vice President Al Gore said in a statement. “Fossil fuel interests went all out to control the outcome.”
Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, a senior official with the World Wildlife Fund who was president of the 2014’s COP20 climate conference in Peru, said: “For a liveable planet we need a full phase out of all fossil fuels.”
Fossil fuels take the spotlight
Yet none of the U.N.’s 27 preceding annual climate conferences had directly addressed the use of fossil fuels, which are largely responsible for having heated the planet by around 1.3 degrees since the pre-industrial era.
Getting that language into this closing text was a mark of success for the Dubai talks, al-Jaber told the summit delegates on Wednesday.
“We have language on fossil fuel in our agreement for the first time ever,” said al-Jaber, who heads the United Arab Emirates’ Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. That company plans to oversee $150 billion in spending that includes an effort to expand its oil production capacity by 2027.
Gore also noted the “milestone” of including the fossil fuel language. But he added that “it is also the bare minimum we need and is long overdue.”
The European Union and small island nations whose physical existence is threatened by the continued use of fossil fuels had mounted a push for a deal that would categorically end their use by the middle of this century — unless they are attached to machines that can remove and bury their dangerous carbon. The U.S., Australia, Canada and Norway — all heavy fossil fuel producers — belatedly joined the call.
The final result reflected other progress in the fight to end global warming. Clean energy technologies such as wind are becoming cheaper than dirty alternatives in many cases. Countries were more prepared than ever to commit to submitting new voluntary plans that delve deep into their economies and cover every greenhouse gas emitting sector with more detail than before.
The final deal also included a pact to triple global renewable energy capacity and double the rate of energy savings through efficiency measures by 2030. And for the first time, it included a clear benchmark for reducing greenhouse gas emissions during this decade, which supporters view as a crucial guidepost for staying on track for hitting global climate goals.
But fossil fuels still supply more than 80 percent of global energy. And for those islanders who had come to Dubai hoping, if not perhaps expecting, that COP28 would show a willingness to break that chokehold, the final deal was a cold postscript.
Tina Stege, the climate envoy for the coral-fringed Marshall Islands, who was out of the room as al-Jaber gaveled the deal through, walked in stiffly as the oil boss proclaimed that his “UAE consensus” was a “paradigm shift.”
Anne Rasmussen, the lead negotiator for the Pacific nation of Samoa, drew her own applause after lamenting that al-Jaber had pushed through the agreement before she and other representatives for endangered island communities had had a chance to outline the text's shortcomings.
“This is not an approach we should be asked to defend,” Rasmussen said.
The presidency thanked the delegate for her comments and then continued with proceedings. Later, Kerry called the applause a “clarion call” highlighting countries’ obligations and responsibility to reach “as far as we can, as fast as we can.”
While the outcome might not have fully met the calls of the Pacific Island countries, “their voices are being heard,” said Chris Bowen, Australia’s minister for climate change and energy.
Fierce resistance to the deal had come from Saudi Arabia, India, China, Nigeria and other countries that see fossil fuels as a way to build, or maintain, their prosperity. Acknowledging that some fossil fuels would be needed as the world moved to cleaner energy was critical in bringing them on board.
Albara Tawfiq, a Saudi official who leads a group of Arab countries, emphasized the room the deal allowed for countries to use non-renewable approaches to cutting climate pollution. Throughout the talks, Saudi Arabia pushed hard for the use of carbon capture technology, even though scientists have warned that it cannot substitute for moving toward cleaner energy sources.
“We must use every opportunity to reduce emissions regardless of the source and use all technologies to this effect,” he said.
Some resource-rich countries say a shift away from fossil fuels needs to come with adequate money and resources that don’t force them to forgo development and the ability to meet growing energy needs.
Many developing nations, in Africa and elsewhere, pointed to what they called the hypocrisy of Western countries that are continuing to expand their extraction of oil and gas while calling on others to consign those fuels to history.
“The developed countries that are leading the expansion of fossil fuel production across the globe are now the champions of the 1.5C North Star,” Bolivian representative Diego Pacheco Balanza said. Those countries, he said, “are running counter to science themselves.”
In the U.S., already the world’s top oil producer, President Joe Biden’s administration has approved a new oil and gas project in Alaska and is holding offshore lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico. The United Kingdom has licensed new drilling operations in the North Sea. The EU has stormed Africa to sign deals to secure gas from the continent, seeking to plug gaps in its supply after the bloc ditched Russian fuel following Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
“None of the policies they have in place right now are leading us to phasing out,” Pedro Luis Pedroso Cuesta, a Cuban diplomat who chairs a large bloc of developing countries and China, told POLITICO. “So how do you reconcile that with then a statement here on phasing out? That is quite contradictory, to say the least.”
These countries also noted that rich countries have consistently failed to deliver on financial pledges to help poorer countries to build clean energy systems. They directed that charge most forcefully at the U.S., where Congress has declined to sanction new spending.
The final text nods in that direction, noting that favorable lending terms and non-debt financing such as grants can assist the transition off fossil fuels. But the agreement did not commit nations to any new assistance, while noting with “deep regret” that rich nations failed to deliver a promised $100 billion in annual climate finance by 2020.
“Nigeria is committed to tripling renewable energy. But we know that tripling renewable energy also requires resources,” said Nigerian environment minister Ishak Kunle Salako. “We cannot just commit to one, and not commit to the other.”
'Ambition and pragmatism'
For al-Jaber, whose role as the summit’s president has drawn steady criticism since the UAE tapped him for the job in January, COP28 brought tremendous scrutiny over whether he would allow fossil fuel interests to dominate the summit, as green activists feared. Those concerns included skepticism about his initial focus on tackling greenhouse gas emissions through means such as expensive carbon-capture technology, rather than addressing them at their source. Under growing pressure, he eventually declared that a phaseout of fossil fuels was “inevitable.”
“In the end, this COP is going to be remembered for what it achieves on fossil fuels,” Brazilian lead negotiator André Corrêa do Lago told POLITICO earlier this week. “Which I think was not the original intention, but it’s an interesting evolution."
The summit started off on a positive note. In the opening plenary on Nov. 30, countries signed off on the creation of a new fund to help developing nations rebuild after climate disasters, a historic agreement island nations had spent decades campaigning for.
Promises to inject the fund with cash immediately followed. The UAE and Germany announced contributions of $100 million each; in total, countries pledged nearly $800 million toward the new fund by the end of the summit. Countries and activists welcomed the early agreement, though the U.S. came under fire for pledging only $17.5 million.
Once the excitement over the new fund settled, the COP28 presidency set off a firework of announcements and declarations, some more consequential than others.
The vast majority of countries signed non-binding declarations focused on making the world’s food supply and health care systems more resilient against climate impacts, though those documents barely mentioned fossil fuels. Dozens supported a pledge to slash planet-warming emissions from air-conditioning. Some countries joined France in signing pledges to scale up nuclear power and accelerate the end of coal.
The presidency’s “oil and gas decarbonization charter” — which saw 50 oil and gas companies promise to eliminate methane leaks by 2030 and production-related greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century — came in for significant criticism. Vulnerable countries and green groups described it as “greenwashing,” and U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres warned that “the promises made clearly fall short of what is required.”
Halfway through the conference, the IEA summarized the energy-related pledges as “positive steps” but said they would “not be nearly enough to move the world onto a path to reaching international climate targets.”
As delegates ended the conference with speeches on Wednesday, before heading out into the smog of Dubai, a representative from China — by far the world’s largest carbon polluter — spoke up. Throughout the talks, Beijing had resisted the deal to end fossil fuels. But now Zhao Yingmin, a vice minister in the country’s environmental department, summed up the clash of hopes and reality expressed in the deal.
“It is China’s view that climate action must feature both ambition and pragmatism,” he said.
