It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Friday, January 05, 2024
Japan's major earthquakes since the 1995 Kobe disaster Road cracks caused by an earthquake is seen in Wajima, Ishikawa prefecture, Japan Jan 1, 2024, in this photo released by Kyodo. PHOTO: Kyodo via Reuters
PUBLISHED ON JANUARY 03, 2024
TOKYO — A powerful earthquake struck central Japan on Monday (Jan 1), killing at least six people, destroying buildings and knocking out power to tens of thousands of homes.
Situated on the "Ring of Fire" arc of volcanoes and oceanic trenches that partly encircles the Pacific Basin, Japan accounts for about 20 per cent of the world's earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater, and each year experiences up to 2,000 quakes that can be felt by people.
Following are some major Japanese quakes in the last 30 years:
- On Jan 16, 1995, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3 hit central Japan, devastating the western port city of Kobe. The worst earthquake to hit the country in 50 years killed more than 6,400 and caused an estimated US$100 billion (S$132.96 billion) in damage.
- On Oct 23, 2004, a 6.8 magnitude quake struck the Niigata region, about 250 km north of Tokyo, killing 65 people and injuring 3,000.
- On March 11, 2011, a 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami struck northeast Japan, killing nearly 20,000 people and causing a meltdown in Fukushima, leading to the world's worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl.
- On April 16, 2016, a 7.3 magnitude earthquake struck in Kumamoto on the southern island of Japan, killing more than 220 people.
- On June 18, 2018, a magnitude 6.1 earthquake in Osaka, Japan's second-biggest metropolis, killed four people, injured hundreds more and halted factory lines in an industrial area.
- On Sept 6, 2018, a 6.7 magnitude earthquake paralysed Japan's northern island of Hokkaido, killing at least seven people, triggering landslides and knocking out power to its 5.3 million residents.
- On Feb 13, 2021, a 7.3 magnitude earthquake hit off the coast of Fukushima in eastern Japan, injuring dozens of people and triggering widespread power outages.
- On March 16, 2022, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake jolted the coast off Fukushima again, leaving two dead and 94 injured and reviving memories of the quake and tsunami that crippled the same region just over a decade earlier.
Malawi Sends Workers to Israel as Critics Call for Transparency
January 04, 2024
Malawi’s government is sending young people to work on Israeli farms amid the conflict with Hamas. Critics say the program is shrouded in secrecy and has exposed unemployment issues in the country. Human rights activists say young people are willing to take opportunities abroad, despite the risks.
Scotland's critical Cold War role to be focus of major exhibition
Russell Leadbetter Thu, 4 January 2024 An Air Attack Panel from the Combined Operations Centre, Leuchars (Image: Image copyright National Museums of Scotland)
SCOTLAND’S critical front-line role in the Cold War – and the fears and the protests that it gave rise to – will be the subject of a major exhibition opening in Edinburgh this summer.
Some 190 objects, many on display for the first time, will be brought together by the National Museum of Scotland in ‘Cold War Scotland’, which will narrate the stories of the Scots at the centre of this global conflict.
The Herald: An anti-Polaris demonstration in the Holy Loch, February 1961
An anti-Polaris demonstration in the Holy Loch, February 1961 (Image: Trinity Mirror/Mirrorpix/Alamy)
Atomic power brought jobs and investment to some of the country’s most remote areas, but as global tensions mounted, the threat of attack or nuclear disaster became part of everyday life. The exhibition, which opens on July 13, will “explore the visible and invisible legacies of the war in Scotland”.
It will also reveal the physical remains of the Cold War - the ruined bases, forgotten bunkers and decommissioned nuclear power stations still evident across the Scottish landscape. This infrastructure became part of the fabric of local communities, particularly the US-controlled radar base at Edzell in Angus, now commemorated with its own bespoke tartan.
The exhibition will also look at the sustained CND protests against the controversial arrival in the Holy Loch in 1961 of US nuclear submarines armed with Polaris missiles.
The extent of Scotland’s role in the Cold War has been described by the prominent author and broadcaster Trevor Royle in his book, Facing the Bear: Scotland and the Cold War.
For much of the period, he writes, Scotland was on the front line, mainly due to its presence on NATO’s ‘northern flank’ – the waters of the north-east Atlantic and the Norwegian and Barents seas with the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap “through which Soviet nuclear-armed submarines and strategic bombers would have attacked in an outbreak of hostilities”.
Adds Royle: “That made Scotland the first major obstacle: it would have been in those northern seas and over Scottish skies that the first battles would have been fought.
“That accounted for the build-up of sophisticated anti-submarine warfare facilities and air defences in Scotland and it was from the American and British bases on the Clyde that the strategic submarines would have launched the response by way of Polaris and Poseidon missiles, each of them capable of destroying Hiroshima several times over”.
The impact of the war lingers in Scottish politics, culture and memory. Scots played an active role in the global conflict as soldiers, for example, within intelligence services and as part of voluntary civil defences.
The exhibition will also draw on Scotland’s rich history of Cold War-era protest and activism. First-hand accounts include a young mother who decorated her daughter’s pram with CND badges. A rattle made from an old laundry detergent bottle emblazoned with the CND logo was given to her baby during the Peace Marches of the early 1980s and will go on display in the exhibition.
Meredith Greiling, Principal Curator of Technology at National Museums Scotland, said: “From nuclear submarines to lively peace protests and observation stations perpetually monitoring for devastating attack, the Cold War permeated every aspect of life in Scotland for decades.
“This conflict is so often remembered on a global scale, but this thought-provoking exhibition will offer a Scottish perspective of the period, allowing Scots from all walks of life to tell their remarkable stories for the first time.”
Further highlights of the exhibition include artwork from Glasgow’s 1951 Exhibition of Industrial Power and a toy nuclear power station, operated by steam and hot to the touch when played with. Both these examples highlight the spirit of optimism, progress and modernity associated with atomic energy in post-war Britain.
In contrast, a Geiger counter used by farmers in East Ayrshire to test for radiation in sheep following the Chernobyl Disaster illustrates the enduring but unseen impact of the Cold War on Scotland’s landscape.
The Herald: A anti-Trident protest rattle made from an old detergent bottle
A anti-Trident protest rattle made from an old detergent bottle (Image: Copyright National Museums of Scotland)
The exhibition is an output of Materialising the Cold War, a collaborative research project between National Museums Scotland and the University of Stirling, and funded by a major grant from the Arts and Humanities Research Council.
Cold War Scotland will be at the National Museum of Scotland, Chambers Street, Edinburgh, from July 13, 2024 to January 26, 2025. Admission free.
New Mexico regulators reject utility’s effort to recoup some investments in coal and nuclear plants
The Four Corners Power Plant in Waterflow, N.M., near the San Juan River in northwestern New Mexico, is viewed in April 2006. Regulators have rejected an effort by New Mexico’s largest electric utility to recoup from customers millions of dollars of investments made in a coal-fired power plant in the northwestern corner of the state, Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2024. (AP Photo/Susan Montoya Bryan, File)
BY SUSAN MONTOYA BRYAN January 3, 2024
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) — Regulators rejected on Wednesday an effort by New Mexico’s largest electric utility to recoup from customers millions of dollars of investments made in a coal-fired power plant in the northwestern corner of the state and a nuclear power plant in neighboring Arizona.
The Public Regulation Commission’s decision means Public Service Co. of New Mexico customers will not have to bear some costs associated with PNM’s stake in the Four Corners Power Plant near Farmington or in the Palo Verde Generating Station outside of Phoenix. Commissioners said those investments were not prudent.
Overall, residential customers will see a decrease in rates instead of the 9.7% increase that the utility was seeking.
The commission said in a statement that PNM still will be able to collect a reasonable return on its investments while providing reliable service to more than 500,000 customers around the state.
PNM filed a request for its first rate hike in years in late 2022, saying the nearly $64 million in additional revenue was needed as part of a long-term plan to recoup $2.6 billion in investments necessary to modernize the grid and meet state mandates for transitioning away from coal and natural gas.
The utility also had cited the expiration of lease agreements for electricity from the Palo Verde plant and the desire to refinance debt to take advantage of lower interest rates.
Hearing examiners with the Public Regulation Commission who reviewed the case recommended in December that the commission reject costs associated with the sale of leases at Palo Verde to a third party. They also said PNM’s 2016 decision to invest in extending the life of the Four Corners plant wasn’t prudent.
PNM officials said late Wednesday that they were reviewing the commission’s order. The utility has until Feb. 2 to seek a rehearing before the commission.
Consumer advocates and environmental groups were pleased the commission opted to reject some of the costs associated with PNM’s investments.
“The commission recognized that PNM failed to do its due diligence before reinvesting in Four Corners after 2016, when there were clear signs that coal is a costly and deadly fuel,” said Matthew Gerhart, a senior attorney with Sierra Club.
The utility had tried to divest itself from Four Corners by transferring its shares to a Navajo energy company. However, regulators rejected that proposal, a decision that was later upheld by the New Mexico Supreme Court.
Located on the Navajo Nation, the Four Corners plant is operated by Arizona Public Service Co. The utility owns a majority of shares in the plant’s two remaining units.
Navajo Transitional Energy Co. had sought to take over PNM’s shares, saying that preventing an early closure of the power plant would help soften the economic blow to communities that have long relied on tax revenue and jobs tied to coal-fired generation.
The nearby San Juan Generating Station was shuttered in 2022, sending financial ripples through the surrounding communities. PNM had operated that plant for decades.
Proposed merger of New Mexico, Connecticut energy companies ends; deal valued at more than $4.3B
Officials with New Mexico’s largest electric utility say a proposed multibillion-dollar merger with a U.S. subsidiary of global energy giant Iberdrola has ended
Officials with New Mexico’s largest electric utility said Tuesday that a proposed multibillion-dollar merger with a U.S. subsidiary of global energy giant Iberdrola has ended.
Under the proposal, Connecticut-based Avangrid would have acquired PNM Resources and its two utilities — Public Service Co. of New Mexico and Texas New Mexico Power.
The all-cash transaction was valued at more than $4.3 billion and would have opened the door for Iberdrola and Avangrid in a state where more wind and solar power could be generated and exported to larger markets.
“We are greatly disappointed with Avangrid’s decision to terminate the merger agreement and its proposed benefits to our customers and communities,” PNM president and CEO Pat Vincent-Collawn said in a statement.
PNM officials previously said the proposed multimillion-dollar merger with Avangrid would have helped create jobs, serve utility customers and boost energy efficiency projects in New Mexico.
They said being backed by Avangrid and Iberdrola would provide the New Mexico utility greater purchasing power and help move it closer to its carbon-free goals.
The multimillion merger plan was originally crafted in 2020.
Last January, PNM Resources filed a notice of appeal with the New Mexico Supreme Court after regulators rejected the proposed merger. The court heard oral arguments last fall but has yet to issue a ruling.
Officials with Avangrid, which owns New York State Electric & Gas and other utilities in the Northeast, said Tuesday that there is no clear timing on the resolution of the court battle in New Mexico nor any subsequent regulatory actions.
The Public Regulation Commission had said it was concerned about Avangrid’s reliability and customer service track record in other states where it operates.
The elected commissioners also pointed to the company initially withholding information during the lengthy proceeding, a move that resulted in a $10,000 penalty.
Mariel Nanasi, executive director of New Energy Economy and a critic of the proposed merger, said Tuesday that Avangrid and Iberdrola’s customer service record and attitude toward regulatory oversight caused New Mexico regulators to reject the proposal.
“Their continuing failure to properly serve their customers is proof positive that the PRC made the right call,” she said, adding that New Mexico escaped a multinational corporate takeover of what she described as an essential piece of infrastructure for the rural state.
Arab League, US condemn Ethiopia-Somaliland Red Sea deal
Cairo-based League says the deal, which gives Addis Ababa long-sought access to Red Sea, "threatens" territorial integrity of Somalia.
Somali people march against the Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal, in Mogadishu
/ Photo: Reuters
The Arab League and the United States have rejected a Red Sea access deal between Ethiopia and Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland, saying the pact violates Somalia's sovereignty.
The League "rejects and condemns any memorandums of understanding that violate Somalia’s sovereignty or attempts to benefit from the fragility of the Somali internal situation and faltering Somali negotiations," the Cairo-based group said in a statement on Wednesday.
It warned against exploiting conditions "to extract part of Somali territory in violation of the rules and principles of international law, and in a way that threatens the territorial integrity of Somalia as a whole."
A Memorandum of Understanding was signed on Monday between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa, giving Ethiopia access to Red Sea ports.
Abiy's office hailed the pact as "historic" and said it is "intended to serve as a framework for the multi-sectoral partnership between the two sides."
But Somalia rejected Ethiopia's Red Sea port deal with Somaliland on Tuesday and called the agreement a threat to good neighbourliness and a violation of its sovereignty.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud called his Egyptian counterpart late on Tuesday in the wake of the tensions between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa concerning the deal.
US says no recognition for breakaway Somaliland
The United States rejected international recognition for breakaway Somaliland and called for calm after the region's leaders signed a deal with Ethiopia.
"The United States recognizes the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia within its 1960 borders," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters.
"We join other partners in expressing our serious concern," he said, "about the resulting spike in tensions in the Horn of Africa."
"We urge all stakeholders to engage in diplomatic dialogue," he said.
Somaliland, a former British protectorate of about 4.5 million people, declared independence from Somalia in 1991, a move not recognised internationally and staunchly opposed by Mogadishu.
Somaliland President Abdi, who signed the deal with Ethiopian PM Abiy, said that in return for providing sea access, Ethiopia would "formally recognise" Somaliland.
The Ethiopian government has not confirmed that it would recognise Somaliland. Somalia has withdrawn its ambassador from Addis Ababa and vowed to defend its sovereignty.
But Somalia has been in near constant chaos the past three decades. Somaliland has been seen as offering an oasis of stability, although it has failed to achieve international recognition.
Ethiopia was cut off from the coast after Eritrea seceded and declared independence in 1993 following a three-decade war, forcing Africa's second-most populous nation to channel commerce through an expensive arrangement with Djibouti.
NAKBA II
Israeli defence chief's post-war plan does not say if displaced Gazans may return home
Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant's plan for the administration of the Gaza Strip after the conclusion of the Israel-Hamas war, which he submitted to the press on Thursday, says that Palestinian organisations should run the territory, but does not specifiy which. The plan also doesn't mention whether Gaza residents who left their homes in the north of the enclave to find temporary refuge in the south will be able to return. FRANCE 24's Andrew Hilliar reports from Tel Aviv.
Israeli calls for Gaza’s ethnic cleansing are only getting louder
Columnist January 5, 2024
Nearly three months of war have left Gaza in ruins. Israel’s quest to eradicate militant group Hamas after it carried out its deadly Oct. 7 attack looks far from finished, no matter the skyrocketing death toll for Palestinians. More than 20,000 people have been killed in the Gaza Strip due to Israeli bombardments and the ongoing offensive. A sprawling humanitarian crisis has seen close to 90 percent of Gazans displaced and the majority of the embattled territory’s more than 2 million population teetering on the brink of famine.
“I’ve been to all kinds of conflicts and all kinds of crises,” Arif Husain, chief economist for the U.N.’s World Food Program, told the New Yorker this week. “In my life, I’ve never seen anything like this in terms of severity, in terms of scale, and then in terms of speed.”
The human misery unfurling across Gaza finds little sympathy in the Israeli public discourse, where the priority remains the vanquishing of Hamas — perpetrators of the single bloodiest slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust — and the freeing of hostages held in Hamas’s Gazan redoubts. Indeed, a steady drumbeat of sound bites from Israeli lawmakers and other politicos has urged an even more devastating fate for the territory.
Members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition have called for the dropping of a nuclear bomb on densely-populated Gaza, the total annihilation of the territory as a mark of retribution, and the immiseration of its people to the point that they have no choice but to abandon their homeland.
This week alone, a parliamentarian from Netanyahu’s Likud party went on television and said it was clear to most Israelis that “all the Gazans need to be destroyed.” Then, Israel’s ambassador in Britain told local radio that there was no other solution for her country than to level “every school, every mosque, every second house” in Gaza to degrade Hamas’s military infrastructure.
This accumulating rhetoric forms part of the 84-page application filed by the government of South Africa at the International Court of Justice, accusing Israel of actions that amount to genocide or failure to prevent genocide. Though it condemns Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack, the South African case argues “no armed attack on a State’s territory no matter how serious — even an attack involving atrocity crimes — can … provide any possible justification for, or defense to, breaches” of the Genocide Convention. Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, it explains, has already “laid waste to vast areas of Gaza, including entire neighborhoods, and has damaged or destroyed in excess of 355,000 Palestinian homes,” rendering swaths of the territory uninhabitable for a long period of time to come. Israeli authorities, claimed the South African complaint, have failed to suppress “direct and public incitement to commit genocide” from a host of Israeli politicians, journalists and public officials.
That includes far-right figures like finance minister Bezalel Smotrich and national security minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who do little to hide their vision of an ethnically-cleansed Gaza. “What needs to be done in the Gaza Strip is to encourage emigration,” Smotrich said in an interview Sunday with Israeli Army Radio. “If there are 100,000 or 200,000 Arabs in Gaza and not 2 million Arabs, the entire discussion on the day after will be totally different.” Ben Gvir separately called for the de facto forced migration of hundreds of thousands out of Gaza.
U.S. and other Western officials condemned these statements as “inflammatory and irresponsible.” But such pushback is doing little to change the tone of the conflict. Netanyahu himself, according to my colleagues, tried to cajole Egypt and other Arab governments and states elsewhere into taking Gazan refugees — a non-starter for many in the Middle East, who fear further Palestinian dispossession of their lands.
Israeli calls for de facto ethnic cleansing and potential Israeli settlement of Gaza may not reflect the actual position of Israel’s wartime cabinet. “In private, Israeli officials say the proposals [to relocate Gazans] stem from the political imperatives of Netanyahu’s coalition and his dependence on far-right parties to maintain power,” my colleagues reported.
“The professionals in the military and the security establishment know this is not even in the realm of possibility,” a person directly familiar with conversations inside the Israeli government told The Washington Post, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. “They know there is no future without Gazans in Gaza and the [Palestinian Authority] as part of the government.”
Palestinians are reflected on a damaged TV screen while searching the rubble of a building following Israeli bombardment in Rafah on Dec. 26. (Said Khatib/AFP/Getty Images)
But Netanyahu and his allies remain conspicuously vague about their imagined endgame for Gaza. That uncertainty, analysts contend, only deepens concerns about Israel’s intent among its Arab neighbors, including Gulf monarchies that were warming to the Jewish state.
“Nobody is going to take the steps that would precede new normalization agreements when Netanyahu is rebuffing Arab states demands on a two-state political process and also insisting that they should fund Gaza reconstruction with no questions asked or strings attached,” wrote Michael Koplow and David Halperin of the Israel Policy Forum.
“Iran and its proxies are not going to be deterred when visiting high-ranking U.S. officials repeatedly lay out their vision for a postwar Gaza and Israeli cabinet members fall over each other in their rush to the television studios to offer public rebuttals,” they added, arguing that it was vital for the Biden administration to push the Israelis to face up to these realities.
Meanwhile, a group of prominent Israelis, including former lawmakers, top scientists and intellectuals, wrote a joint letter Wednesday condemning Israel’s judicial authorities for not reining in the genocidal rhetoric widely on show. “For the first time that we can remember, the explicit calls to commit atrocious crimes, as stated, against millions of civilians have turned into a legitimate and regular part of Israeli discourse,” they wrote. “Today, calls of these types are an everyday matter in Israel.”
By Ishaan TharoorIshaan Tharoor is a foreign affairs columnist at The Washington Post, where he authors the Today's WorldView newsletter and column. In 2021, he won the Arthur Ross Media Award in Commentary from the American Academy of Diplomacy. He previously was a senior editor and correspondent at Time magazine, based first in Hong Kong and later in New York. Twitter
Ruin and rescue dogs in quake-ravaged Wajima
Wajima (Japan) (AFP) – Joining soldiers and firefighters in the desperate search for survivors after a huge earthquake in central Japan was rescue dog Elsa, described by her trainer as "the best of the best".
Issued on: 05/01/2024 -
Elsa the rescue dog helps firefighters search for people in quake-hit Wajima
Nimbly crossing loose roof tiles and splintered wooden beams, she sniffed through the wreckage of a destroyed wooden house in Wajima, one of the cities worst hit by the 7.5-magnitude earthquake on New Year's Day.
Along with rescuers including Japanese troops, the large black dog with pointed ears was searching for an elderly woman possibly buried under the rubble of her home.
"Please Elsa, please find her," came a voice from a crowd of neighbours and other relief workers watching their efforts, three days after the disaster struck.
The dog was brought to the coastal city by Yasuhiro Morita from his rescue dog training centre around 500 kilometres (300 miles) away in western Tottori region.
"She reacts to dead bodies when searching the rubble -- she is trained to always bark when she finds a body," Morita told AFP.
Strong aftershocks have shaken the region since Monday's terrifying main tremor
"But today, she just wandered off towards the bystanders instead, which likely means there was no body inside," he said.
Morita described Elsa as "the best of the best in western Japan", but she wasn't the only mutt on the job -- the defence minister announced Thursday that a rescue dog named Jennifer had found an elderly woman under the rubble who was pulled out and saved.
The ravaged house was just one of the devastating scenes in Wajima and other parts of Ishikawa on the Sea of Japan coast.
Strong aftershocks have shaken the region since Monday's terrifying main tremor, which triggered landslides, a major fire and a tsunami more than a metre high.
As of Friday, 92 people had been confirmed dead in the disaster, with 242 others reported missing.
Wajima resident Hiroyuki Hamatani, 53, had been relaxing with his relatives when the quake struck.
"Things fell over and walls crumbled, and the entrance door also collapsed. The house itself is standing, but it's far from liveable now," he told AFP.
Water and food are scarce, as "supplies have hardly arrived yet, but I guess they're on their way now", he said.
"I don't have the space in my mind to think about the future. Things are all scattered inside my house. More aftershocks could make it collapse, so I can't go back just yet."
On the approach to Wajima, fallen boulders partially blocked roads
On the approach to Wajima -- a city of around 23,000 residents, known for its artisan lacquerware -- tunnels were partially blocked by fallen boulders, and mountain surfaces had been left barren by landslides.
Flattened houses lined the route, with debris and snow dotting the sides of the road. 'No trace left'
Even more shocking sights awaited those who made it into the city.
An imposing seven-storey building lay on its side, while fallen utility poles blocked a path surrounded by twisted wreckage.
"Is someone there? Answer us please!" a soldier was heard shouting while his team searched the ruins of a home for another missing resident, entering through broken windows.
The quake sparked a blaze that laid waste to an entire market area where 200 structures reportedly burned down.
There, the ground was blanketed in charred building materials, with burned-out cars sitting in front of a topsy-turvy backdrop of houses dislodged from their foundations.
Fallen utility poles block a path surrounded by twisted wreckage
Standing looking at the ruins was Shinichi Hirano, 47.
"This is where my grandma's house used to be, but it's all burned down," he told AFP.
"She passed away a while ago, so her house has long been vacant, but still, this area is full of fond memories," he said, reminiscing about a cake store and a barbershop he used to frequent as a child.
"But they're all gone. I only see burned ruins now," he said, with a sad smile on his face.
"It pains me" to see these familiar places decimated, Hirano said, adding: "I'm just speechless."
The quake sparked a blaze that laid waste to an entire market area
Animals have also become the victims of the war between Hamas and Israel. FRANCE 24's team on the ground met a man who has set up a foundation to rescue dogs left behind after Oct. 7th attacks.
Ethnic armies’ ‘Operation 1027’ put Myanmar junta on defensive in 2023
Resistance forces are now turning their attention to
setting up civil administrations in towns they control.
By Tin Aung Khaing and Kyaw Lwin Oo for RFA Burmese 2023.12.30
A member of Ta'ang National Liberation Army walks past damaged pagodas after clashes with Myanmar’s military in Namhsan township in Myanmar's northern Shan state, Dec. 12, 2023.
Myanmar’s ethnic armed organizations and other resistance groups made significant gains against the country’s military dictatorship in 2023.
"Operation 1027," launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance in northern Shan state in October, was a surprising success. Along with the efforts of local People’s Defense Forces, or PDFs, and ethnic armed groups in Kayah, Kayin, Chin and Kachin states, anti-junta forces put the ruling military junta on the defensive.
The junta lost hundreds of outposts as rebel forces captured towns and several key border crossings in November and December, suggesting the tide could be turning in the country's civil war that erupted after the military overthrew a democratically elected government in a February 2021 coup d'etat
“The military council suffered great losses in 2023, while the people’s revolution has stepped forward gradually,” saidKyaw Zaw, spokesman for the shadow National Unity Government, or NUG. “It is the victory of the people.”
The number of junta troops surrendering to resistance forces increased after Operation 1027 began.
People's Liberation Army forces from China fight Myanmar junta army troops near northwestern Myanmar's Sagaing region, Nov. 23, 2023. (Reuters)
On Oct. 30, more than 40 members of Light Infantry Battalion 143 in Kunlong township, northern Shan state, surrendered to the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army.
A day later, the military junta’s 15 local militia members laid down their weapons and turned over their arms and ammunition. Reports of junta units submitting to resistance forces have continued over the last two months.
“Many have contacted us to surrender,” said Maung Maung Swe, spokesman for the NUG’s Ministry of Defense. “If we can have more collaborative fights, the military council will soon topple.”
Junta troops have lost motivation and confidence in their fighting ability because of Operation 1027, political observer Than Soe Naing said.
“They have realized they should not sacrifice their lives for corrupt senior military officials,” he said. “They will surrender if they are defeated, and will flee from the military if they have an opportunity. It’s become a common idea among soldiers.”
RFA was unable to reach junta spokesman Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun for comment about junta forces surrendering.
Local administrations
Ethnic armies and officials from the NUG, which is mostly made up of former civilian government leaders, have been setting up interim administrative bodies in areas they control.
In other areas of the country, resistance leaders have started to think about what Myanmar would look like if the junta was defeated.
In Sagaing region, a hotbed of resistance to military rule that saw a resurgence of anti-junta protests in 2023, more than 170 resistance forces held a forum on May 30-31 to discuss the armed revolt and local administration.
Ta'ang National Liberation Army troops prepare to launch a drone during their attack on a Myanmar junta military camp in Namhsan township in Myanmar's northern Shan state, Dec. 12, 2023. (AFP)
“The forum was held to continue the revolution collaboratively as it has been for more than two years,” Sagaing Forum spokesman Chaw Su San said. “It also aims to forge more cooperation among anti-military dictatorship forces in Sagaing region.”
On Nov. 17, democratically elected representatives from Sagaing, Tanintharyi and Magway regions convened regional parliaments and approved a preparatory bill for an interim constitution, supported by the dissolved National League for Democracy.
But revolutionary groups objected to the measure, saying they wanted to ensure equal rights for negotiation, participation and collective leadership by all resistance groups, said Soe Win Swe, another Sagaing Forum spokesman.
“We concluded that the recent approval was intended just for the interest of a single organization, so we objected to it,” he said. “The Sagaing Forum firmly stands on collective leadership.”
Draft constitutions
In western Myanmar, armed ethnic Chin groups have also gone on the offensive since October.
“Our resistance forces could capture only four or five military outposts in the past two and half years,” said Salai Timmy, the secretary of the Chinland Joint Defense Committee.
“However, after launching Operation 1027, we controlled about nine outposts,” he said. “Meanwhile, the military troops abandoned about 12 camps.”
The Chin National Front, an ethnic Chin political organization whose armed wing has battled junta forces, along with local administration organizations, established Chinland — Chin state’s new name – following the approval of a new constitution on Dec. 6.
The Chinland Council, the new governing body, will form a legislature, an administration and a judiciary branch within 60 days, said Salai Htet Ni, first joint secretary of the council.
Members of the Myanmar Army’s Light Infantry Battalion 129 surrender to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army in northern Shan state, Nov. 12, 2023. (Three Brotherhood Alliance)
In eastern Myanmar, ethnic Karenni forces launched Operation 11.11 — their own version of Operation 1027 — in November, seizing at least nine military outposts in Kayah state, said Khun Bedu, chairman of the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force.
“The junta soldiers abandoned their camps,” he said. “We are moving on to capture more outposts.”
Resistance forces in Kayah state set up an Interim Executive Council, or IEC, on June 12, putting in place local administrations at village, village-tract and township levels, IEC General Secretary Khu Plue Reh said.
NUG is working with the IEC without intervening in administrative procedures, he said.
“We also work together to provide public services especially in education, health care and humanitarian assistance,” he said.
With its own public support, the establishment of the IEC could be an initial step toward the establishment of a federal union in Myanmar — a long-running goal of ethnic political organizations and their respective ethnic armies.
In adjacent Kayin state, the Karen National Union, or KNU, battled junta troops, while providing training to local PDFs.
The KNU’s Karen National Liberation Army and PDF forces took control of Mon township in early December — the first town captured in Bago region. Resistance forces controlled four other military outposts near the township after three military officers and 19 soldiers surrendered during the battles, according to a KNU news release on Dec. 6.
Ethnic Karen resistance groups announced that they would form a federal unit this year and would prepare a draft constitution, KNU spokesman Padho Saw Taw Nee said.
Translated by Aung Naing for RFA Burmese. Edited by Roseanne Gerin and Matt Reed.
Myanmar junta and ethnic army alliance fail to reach agreement to reduce combat
Both sides are set to meet again for a third round of talks in
January.
By RFA Burmese 2023.12.28
Members of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army rest at a checkpoint amid fighting with Myanmar's military in Namhsan township in northern Shan State, Dec. 12, 2023.
Myanmar’s military junta and the Three Brotherhood Alliance held talks earlier this week about reducing armed conflict in northern Shan state, but failed to agree to meet each other’s demands, officials from one of the alliance’s ethnic armies said.
The Arakan Army (AA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) formed the alliance in June 2019, and gained prominence in fighting junta soldiers following the February 2021 military coup.
The alliance has captured several cities and border hubs crucial for trade with China, as well as several junta military positions over the last few months in an offensive known as Operation 1027 in northern Shan state.
Regime forces have tried to regain the upper hand by launching artillery and air strikes.
The fighting has resulted in the deaths of more than 130 civilians, displaced nearly 100,000 people, and disrupted border trade with neighboring China, according to officials of the Shan Human Rights Foundation.
The Chinese-brokered talks in Kunming, capital of China’s Yunnan province, on Dec. 22-24 failed to achieve results because of a wide gap between the two sides’ demands, top TNLA officials told Radio Free Asia.
Both sides have agreed to meet again for the third time in January, the sources said.
RFA could not reach the spokesmen for the three ethnic armies, nor junta spokesman Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, for comment.
Joint Karenni resistance forces celebrate after seizing the state police station in Loikaw, capital of eastern Myanmar's Kayah state, Dec. 10, 2013. (Progressive Karenni People's Force)
The meeting was a follow-up to the first round of talks that took place in Kunming on Dec. 7-9, during which the parties agreed to a temporary cease-fire until Dec. 31, sources close to the junta said at that time.
The Chinese Embassy in Yangon did not respond to an RFA email request for comment on the talks.
But during a press conference on Dec. 19, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Beijing supported the peace process in northern Myanmar, and that the relevant parties needed to implement what already had been agreed to reduce the fighting.
No signs of compromise
China-based political analyst Hla Kyaw Zaw said that the talks are unlikely to be successful because the interests of the two sides are not close enough for them to negotiate.
“The junta does not intend to share political and economic powers with others,” she said. “The purpose of attending the peace talks was to find a way to continue to hold on to the power it held.”
“The alliance wants the liberation of their region at least,” she added.
Because the junta has shown no signs of compromise, the Three Brotherhood Alliance must make further military achievements to gain the upper hand in further discussions, Hla Kyaw Zaw said.
“The more victories it has, the better it is for it to talk with the junta,” she said.
Aung Myo, a political analyst and former military officer, said the situation will not be resolved if it affects the perpetuation of national sovereignty upheld by Myanmar’s military
“The army will not compromise on this,” he said.
An agreement between the two sides can be reached only if the Three Brotherhood Alliance respects the national flag and stops dealing with the shadow National Unity Government that opposes the junta, he added.
A member of the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force rescues civilians trapped amid airstrikes during the battle for Loikaw in eastern Myanmar's Kayah State, Nov. 14, 2023. (Reuters)
Sai Kyi Zin Soe, a political observer, said China would continue to intervene in northern Shan state to protect its interests in Myanmar.
“Its main goal is to eradicate cross-border crimes,” he said. “And since this is related to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, [it] is eager to increase its investments and develop other businesses there.”
As clashes continued in northern Shan state on Thursday, the Chinese Embassy in Myanmar warned its citizens to immediately leave the town of Laukkai in MNDAA-controlled territory bordering China, AFP reported.
The MNDAA has vowed to recapture the town located in an area run by a military-aligned militia and known for gambling, prostitution and online scams, the report said.
Translated by Htin Aung Kyaw for RFA Burmese. Edited by Roseanne Gerin and Matt Reed.
S Korean spy agency sees Kim Jong Un’s daughter as ‘probable successor’
Kim Ju Ae, born in 2013, gained attention in Nov 2022,
following her first public appearance with her father.
By Lee Jeong-Ho for RFA 2024.01.03 Seoul, South Korea
Kim Ju Ae, daughter of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, attends a military parade to mark the 75th founding anniversary of North Korea’s army, at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, North Korea Feb. 8, 2023.
The nominee to be the next head of South Korea’s spy agency said Thursday that he sees North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s daughter, Ju Ae, as his “probable successor,” marking the first time the agency has officially indicated her possible succession of power.
Radio Free Asia reported in November last year that the daughter received a new official title “Morning Star of Korea” – an apparent and deliberate parallel to the country’s founding leader Kim Il Sung.
Historically, Kim Il Sung was referred to by the title during his time as a guerrilla leader fighting against Japan’s colonial rule over the Korean peninsula.
In a written response submitted to the South’s National Assembly ahead of his hearing, the National Intelligence Agency chief nominee, Cho Tae-yong, said: “A thorough analysis of Kim Ju Ae’s public engagements and the level of respect shown to her by North Korea since she came into the public eye, suggests that she is currently a probable successor.”
The daughter, born in 2013, has started making public appearances since November 2022, accompanying Kim Jong Un in North Korea’s various high-profile occasions including his visiting of missile launching sites.
The emergence of Ju Ae in these public settings was unprecedented, leading to speculation about her potential future role in the North Korean leadership.
The latest assessment reflects South Korea’s changing stance on Ju Ae. Previously in September, the agency stated it was too early to see her as a successor due to North Korea’s male-centric leadership succession culture.
Cho, however, indicated on Thursday that the succession of power to Ju Ae is not yet definitive.
“Since Kim Jong Un is still young and does not have significant health issues, and considering there are various uncertainties, we are monitoring all possibilities,” Cho said.
The ex-chief of South Korea’s National Security Office also added that North Korea’s leader has other children besides his daughter, with unknown genders, highlighting the uncertain nature of North Korea’s leadership succession.
In March 2023, South Korea’s then Unification Minister Kwon Young-se said Kim Jong Un had “either two or three children.”
Edited by Taejun Kang and Elaine Chan.
AUSTRALIA
More than 100 workers laid off after Queensland coal miner New Wilkie Energy enters administration
New Wilkie Energy went into administration days after Christmas.
More than 100 workers have been laid off from a Western Downs coal mine after its owner went into administration. Key points:
New Wilkie Energy was placed into administration days before Christmas
More than 100 workers have been laid off from the mine site
Company BRI Ferrier has been appointed to assess the business' position
New Wilkie Energy, which operates the Wilkie Creek mine near Dalby, about 200 kilometres west of Brisbane, was placed into administration on December 27.
Administrator BRI Ferrier has been appointed to assess the business's position.
New Wilkie Energy, a private company, acquired the mine site in July 2021 from mining giant Peabody Energy.
The mine had been mothballed since 2014.
Western Downs Regional Council mayor Paul McVeigh said 100 workers from the mine site had been laid off just prior to Christmas.
He said news of the company going into administration was very disappointing.
"We were excited about the news when Wilkie Creek was re-opening and were excited about the 230 jobs coming into the region," he said.
"Very disappointed about the announcement — an opportunity lost I'd say." Paul McVeigh says he is disappointed New Wilkie Energy had gone into administration.(ABC News: Victoria Pengilley)
New Wilkie Energy, which exported its first shipment of coal from the mine last year, had also planned to build a 400-megawatt solar farm and 200-megawatt wind farm at the site.
In October, the company sent 82,500 tonnes of coal from the Port of Brisbane to China. Coal costs
Energy analyst Tim Buckley from public interest think tank Climate Energy Finance said as New Wilkie Energy was a private company, the reasons for it entering administration were not clear.
But he said it was likely significant costs for mining operations played a role in the company's demise.
"It's using contractors, not employees, it probably doesn't have a lot of capital," Mr Buckley said.
"It was hoping to get product out the door and sold in order to cash in on the very high current coal prices but with that comes a whole lot of risk."
Tim Buckley says high costs and falling prices could pose problems for coal miners in 2024.(ABC News: Daniel Irvine)
While coal prices remain at historical highs, predicted falls this year could signal problems for other smaller mining operations, he said.
Mr Buckley said costs were high at a time of falling prices. The price for thermal coal is $US128 a tonne and the long-term average is $US75.
"If I had to predict, the price is likely to drop another 20 to 50 per cent over the next two, three years as it moves back to long-term averages," he said.
Mr Buckley said he believed more companies would seek to divest their coal mining operations as the world shifted to renewable energy.
Wilkie Creek was bought in 2021 after having been mothballed for seven years
(Supplied: Facebook)
"There will be demand for coal in the next 10, 20 years, even potentially 30 years," he said.
"But the trajectory is for continuing decline — the sciences say we have to see demand reduce over time."
The ABC has contacted administrator BRI Ferrier for comment.
