China’s Record Solar Additions in 2023 Top Entire U.S. Solar Capacity

By Charles Kennedy - Jan 26, 2024

China installed a record-high solar power capacity last year, with additions in 2023 alone topping the current capacity of the entire U.S. solar fleet.

China added as much as 216.9 gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacity in 2023 – a record high, obliterating its previous record of 87.4 GW of solar power additions 2022, according to data from the National Energy Administration cited by Bloomberg.

Per estimates by BloombergNEF, the Chinese additions in 2023 alone were higher than the whole U.S. solar capacity fleet of 175.2 GW.

Last year, China commissioned as much solar PV as the entire world did in 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report on renewables earlier this month. Renewable capacity installations globally surged by almost 50% last year as renewable energy capacity hit nearly 510 GW, led by solar PV and a jump in new Chinese installations, the IEA noted.

Last year, China also added 75.9 GW of wind—another record high and much higher than the 37.6 GW added in 2022, according to the Chinese data released today.

In 2023, renewable energy generation capacity in China surpassed 50% of the total—a milestone which China expected to achieve by 2025.

China dominates not only solar power installations globally, but also the solar panel market.

China’s costs for producing solar modules have plummeted by 42% over the past year, which gives Chinese manufacturers a huge cost advantage over the U.S. and European solar equipment producers, Wood Mackenzie said in a report last month.

While China is the world’s largest investor in wind and solar, it is also investing heavily in hydropower and hydrocarbons as it pursues an “all of the above” approach to energy supply.

China continues to rely on coal and coal-fired power generation to meet its growing power demand, and despite being the world's top investor in solar and wind capacity, it also plans a lot of new coal-fired electricity capacity.

 

Latin America: The Next Chapter in China’s Global Economic Strategy

By Alex Kimani - Jan 24, 2024

• Harsh economic times are forcing China to change its investment tack in its pivotal markets, including in Latin America.
• 
  
• China is investing in Latin America’s critical minerals, technology, renewable energy,  electric vehicles and high-end manufacturing sectors.
• 
  
• China is likely to remain the global superpower in renewable energy for years, if not decades, to come.
• 
  

For decades, China has been a key driver of global economic growth thanks to an economy that managed to maintain blistering growth for what seemed like forever. China’s economy ballooned from $1.2 trillion in 2000 to nearly $18 trillion in 2021, good for a nearly 10% annual clip ever since Beijing embarked on economic reforms in 1978. The country's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, adjusted for inflation, rocketed from $293 in 1985 to more than $12,000 in 2021, one of the greatest economic transformations of modern times. But signs are now legion that China's economic nirvana has ended, with some analysts predicting that the Asian nation probably has another decade or so before it plunges into civil unrest and long-term economic decline.

The clearest sign of this decline is China's deflation problem. At a time when Americans are fretting about rising prices of goods and services, aka inflation, policymakers in Beijing are growing increasingly worried because prices are declining, aka deflation. China’s consumer price index declined for the final three months of 2023, marking the country’s longest deflationary streak since 2009. Deflation is a sign that China’s current economic model is broken and points to deeper malaise gripping the Chinese people.   

More worryingly, foreign investors are losing confidence in the Chinese dream. Last year, outflows of foreign direct investment in China exceeded inflows for the first time since 1998, with escalating tensions with the U.S. cited as a key reason why investments are fleeing from the beleaguered economy. Two-thirds of respondents to a survey taken last fall by the American Chamber of Commerce in the People's Republic of China cited rising bilateral tensions as a major business challenge. Last year, overseas companies invested 1.13 trillion yuan (S$209 billion) in China, good for an 8% Y/Y decline- the first decline since 2012. Unfortunately, the situation is not expected to improve any time soon.

“2024 will be worse. They would need to fully open many more sectors, eliminate forceful locations, and close down a few state agencies, but none of that is going to happen, so I think FDI will continue to fall,” Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis, told the Business Times.

Harsh economic times are forcing China to change its investment track in its pivotal markets, including Latin America. Whereas the United States is Latin America's largest trading partner, China remains South America's top trading partner. As you might expect, China’s foreign direct investments have come under pressure, and Latin America is no exception. Over the years, China’s FDI in Latin America has been cut by more than half, from $14.2bn per year between 2010 and 2019 to $7.7bn from 2020 to 2021, and then to $6.4bn in 2022, the last year for which data is available.

But the massive decline does not tell the whole story. China has changed its investment strategy in the region from putting money into expensive infrastructure projects to strategic sectors such as critical minerals, technology, renewable energy, electric vehicles, and high-end manufacturing.

“Our data show a clear shift in Chinese FDI towards specific industries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Many of these new priority areas are described by China as ‘new infrastructure’, a term which encompasses industries — telecommunications, fintech and energy transition, for instance — which are . . . critical to China’s own economic growth strategy,” Margaret Myers, a co-author of the report by the Washington-based think-tank, has told the Financial Times.

Renewable Energy Superpower

China might not achieve its lofty ambition to surpass the United States as the world’s pre-eminent economic and military power any time soon, but is likely to remain the global superpower in renewable energy for years, if not decades, to come.

In its Renewables 2023 report, the International Energy Agency predicted that China will continue to cement its status as the colossus of renewable energy over the next five years by adding more capacity than the rest of the globe combined. The IEA says China will account for 56% of renewable energy capacity additions in the 2023-28 period. The world’s second-biggest economy is expected to grow its renewable capacity by 2,060 gigawatts (GW) in the forecast period, dwarfing the 1,574 GW capacity addition by the rest of the world. The IEA report highlights how Beijing is employing supportive policies to drive the massive expansion.

"China accounts for almost 90% of the global upward forecast revision, consisting mainly of solar photovoltaic (PV). In fact, its solar PV manufacturing capabilities have almost doubled since last year, creating a global supply glut. This has reduced local module prices by nearly 50% from January to December 2023, increasing the economic attractiveness of both utility-scale and distributed solar PV projects," the report said.

The IEA has pointed out that lower costs are making utility-scale solar cheaper in China than coal- and gas-fired generation.

 

North Dakota Oil Production Climbing Back Faster Than Anticipated

By Julianne Geiger - Jan 26, 2024

North Dakota’s production of crude oil is returning to full force at a quicker pace than first suggested by authorities, new data from the state’s regulator showed on Friday.

Crude oil production in the Peace Garden State is now down by between 30,000 and 80,000 bpd after extreme cold led to operational challenges. Associated natural gas production—the natural gas produced as a byproduct of crude oil production—was estimated to be down 0.10 and .22 Bcfd.

Extreme weather cut crude oil production in North Dakota by hundreds of thousands of barrels. At the peak of the production outages due to the cold temperatures, 650,000 bpd—roughly half of what North Dakota typically produces—was taken offline. Just a week ago, the North Dakota Pipeline Authority said that production had clawed back to settle at just 350,000 – 400,000 bpd, but cautioned that it could be another month before its production returned to normal.

Today’s data, however, suggests that production could return to normal before a month, with less than 80,000 bpd of crude production remaining offline.

Production outages from the Bakken—one of the largest deposits of crude oil and natural gas in the United States—and disruption of oil tanker traffic due to fears about traversing the Red Sea have contributed to a rise in crude oil prices. On Friday, WTI was trading at $76.94—a $2.80 rise from a month ago. Brent crude was more than $3 less than what it is today.

The Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and U.S. production outages have perhaps made OPEC+’s job a bit easier as it tries to curb oil production to keep oil markets in check.

In other North Dakota’ oil news, the state’s Director of Mineral Resources Lynn Helms, who held office during North Dakota’s oil boom that catapulted it to the nation’s third-most prolific oil producer, announced on Thursday that he is retiring effective June 30.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

 

Machine Learning: The Key to Efficient Fuel Cell Development

By Brian Westenhaus - Jan 25, 2024

• The team identified two new materials with unique crystal structures, potentially enhancing proton conductivity for fuel cells.
• 
  
• Their approach utilizes machine learning to predict optimal combinations of base and dopant candidates, speeding up the discovery process.
• 
  
• While current performance of these materials is low, further research could improve their efficiency, contributing to the development of a hydrogen-based society.

Researchers at Kyushu University, in collaboration with Osaka University and the Fine Ceramics Center, have developed a framework that uses machine learning to speed up the discovery of materials for green energy technology.

Using the new approach, the researchers identified and successfully synthesized two new candidate materials for use in solid oxide fuel cells – devices that can generate energy using fuels like hydrogen, which don’t emit carbon dioxide.

Their findings, which were reported in the journal, Advanced Energy Materials, (available by open access at posting) could also be used to accelerate the search for other innovative materials beyond the energy sector.

Professor Yoshihiro Yamazaki, of Kyushu University’s Department of Materials Science and Technology, Platform of Inter-/Transdisciplinary Energy Research (Q-PIT) explained, “One path to carbon neutrality is by creating a hydrogen society. However, as well as optimizing how hydrogen is made, stored and transported, we also need to boost the power-generating efficiency of hydrogen fuel cells.”

To generate an electric current, solid oxide fuel cells need to be able to efficiently conduct hydrogen ions (or protons) through a solid material, known as an electrolyte.

Currently, research into new electrolyte materials has focused on oxides with very specific crystal arrangements of atoms, known as a perovskite structure.

Professor Yamazaki said, “The first proton-conducting oxide discovered was in a perovskite structure, and new high-performing perovskites are continually being reported. But we want to expand the discovery of solid electrolytes to non-perovskite oxides, which also have the capability of conducting protons very efficiently.”

However, discovering proton-conducting materials with alternative crystal structures via traditional “trial and error” methods has numerous limitations.

For an electrolyte to gain the ability to conduct protons, small traces of another substance, known as a dopant, must be added to the base material. But with many promising base and dopant candidates – each with different atomic and electronic properties – finding the optimal combination that enhances proton conductivity becomes difficult and time-consuming.

Instead, the researchers calculated the properties of different oxides and dopants. They then used machine learning to analyze the data, identify the factors that impact the proton conductivity of a material, and predict potential combinations.

Guided by these factors, the researchers then synthesized two promising materials, each with unique crystal structures, and assessed how well they conducted protons. Remarkably, both materials demonstrated proton conductivity in just a single experiment.

One of the materials, the researchers highlighted, is the first-known proton conductor with a sillenite crystal structure. The other, which has a eulytite structure, has a high-speed proton conduction path that is distinct from the conduction paths seen in perovskites.

Currently, the performance of these oxides as electrolytes is low, but with further exploration, the research team believes their conductivity can be improved.

Professor Yamazaki concluded with, “Our framework has the potential to greatly expand the search space for proton-conducting oxides, and therefore significantly accelerate advancements in solid oxide fuel cells. It’s a promising step forward to realizing a hydrogen society. With minor modifications, this framework could also be adapted to other fields of materials science, and potentially accelerate the development of many innovative materials.”

***

This is welcome news. We’ve been looking intently for years in hopes of practical consumer fuel cells for consumer and business products. So far they exist in rare form at high expense with precious metal construction.

This technology offers some improvement in furthering research. But a couple proton conductor candidates do not solve the array of issues mass market fuel cells need solved to get to market.

Fuel cells look to still be a ways off. A step closer now, but it looks like there are quite a few steps yet to go.

By Brian Westenhaus via New Energy and Fuel

High Energy Prices Weigh On European Steelmakers

By Metal Miner - Jan 25, 2024

• Liberty Steel Ostrava has halted operations due to energy supply suspension and unresolved financial issues.
• 
  
• The plant, a significant player in European steel manufacturing, faces an uncertain future with a prolonged shutdown.
• 
  
• ArcelorMittal's involvement and the wider impact on the European steel industry highlight the sector's vulnerabilities amid economic challenges.
• 
  

Workers at flats producer Liberty Steel Ostrava in the Czech Republic did not return to work on January 16, despite local media reports stating that workers agreed to resume working on this date. The Daily Denik noted that there were a couple of other “return dates” set for the steel manufacturing plant, including January 3 and January 9.

“Employees at Liberty Ostrava continue to overcome so-called other obstacles by the employer until January 22, when we will inform them of further developments in the situation,” the publication quoted plant spokeswoman Kate?ina Zají?ková as saying. Zají?ková was unavailable for comment, despite several attempts by MetalMiner (these updates and more in MetalMiner’s weekly newsletter).

The Ostrava plant stopped all operations back in December. On December 21, energy supplier Tameh suspended supplies to the plant after declaring bankruptcy, citing the lack of payments from the steelmaker. On January 12, local media reported that a regional court in Ostrava recently ordered Liberty to pay K?‎ 500 million ($21.9 million) in outstanding debts to Tameh. Howeever, that order only came after a court declared a three-month moratorium on all of Ostrava’s debt payments and appointed a restructuring trustee.

Blast Furnace Shutdown Raises Concerns Over Europe’s Steel Manufacturing

Weak steel demand in Europe prompted Liberty Steel Ostrava to take its single operating blast furnace off-stream in October. At the time, the facility cited high gas prices and poor economic circumstances within Europe as causes for the shutdown. Plant managers initially scheduled the stoppage for two weeks. However, as of mid-January 2024, it did not restart, painting a somewhat grim picture of the Czech steel manufacturing hub’s future.

The plant at Ostrava can produce up to 3.5 million metric tons of crude steel per year, which it casts into slab, square billet and round billet. These are then used for rolling into hot rolled coil, merchant bar, and seamless tubes. In addition, the site posesses a pipe mill for the production of spiral-welded, welded tube, and OCTG-grade pipes.

Liberty Steel Ostrava’s Connection to ArcelorMittal

ArcelorMittal owns a 50% stake in the Ostrava plant’s energy products, Tameh, which is a joint venture with Polish energy company Tauron. A Singapore court recently granted ArcelorMittal a €150 million ($163 million) freeze order against Liberty for the outstanding balance on the sales of Ostrava, including Romanian steelmaker Galati.

Liberty Steel agreed to acquire Ostrava from ArcelorMittal in 2018. This was mainly because European regulators previously required the Luxembourg-headquartered group to sell the plant as part of its acquisition of Italian steelmaker Ilva, now known as Acciaierie d’Italia (ADI). Incidentally, ArcelorMittal now holds 62% of that company.

However, a January 15 report by Reuters stated that an Italian court recently gave the green light to energy companies to cut gas supplies to ADI. Similar to the Czech Republic, higher gas prices and poor economic circumstances all across Europe continue to impact steel demand and the Ostrava plant.

ADI Steel Manufacturing Increasing

ADI’s main plant at Taranto, in southern Italy, rolls plate and hot rolled coil via six basic oxygen converters. The site also has a tube and pipe mill, which produces welded and spiral-welded tubes. Further downstream, Taranto also produces cold rolled, hot dipped, and electrolytic galvanized coil.

Reports noted that ADI plans to produce up to 5 million metric tons of crude steel in 2024 (read the five best practices of sourcing steel, both in and outside of Europe). This would represent a two-thirds increase from the 3 million metric tons it poured in 2022. That said, the Reuters report noted that the company currently has €200 million ($217 million) in outstanding payments to state-owned gas grid supplier Snam. Meanwhile, debts to energy provider Eni were €104 million at the end of H1 2023.

India to Become Single Most Important Driver of Oil Demand Growth

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 24, 2024, 

• High GDP growth, industrialization, urbanization, and a rising number of middle class in India are set to drive demand growth in the Asian country.
• 
  
• Total Indian refining capacity is expected to increase by 22% in five years from the current 254 million metric tons per year.
• 
  
• All major forecasters expect India to replace China as the biggest driver of global oil demand growth in the long term, which should happen before 2030.
• 
  

Before the end of this decade, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, India, is set to become the single biggest driver of global oil demand, replacing China, analysts and forecasters say.  

India’s economy has grown at a robust pace over the past year. Meanwhile, growth in other major economies—including China—has sputtered. High GDP growth, industrialization, urbanization, and a rising number of middle class in India are all expected to shift the key oil demand growth driver from China onto India.  

Some analysts, such as Rystad Energy, expect India’s crude oil demand growth to shrink to 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 from 290,000 bpd in 2023. 

Despite these predictions of slower demand growth, India is boosting its refining capacity. The country should add 1.12 million bpd to its current total each year until 2028, a junior oil minister told India’s parliament last month.

Total Indian refining capacity is expected to increase by 22% in five years from the current 254 million metric tons per year, which are equal to around 5.8 million bpd, Rameswar Teli said. The government expects the boost to refining capacity to be “adequate” to meet the country’s fuel demand in the long term.

India’s economy is growing faster than all other major economies, and so is its demand for energy.  

All major forecasters expect India to replace China as the biggest driver of global oil demand growth in the long term, which should happen before 2030. Related: Russia Builds Out Arctic Oil Route As Middle East Tensions Escalate

In 2023, oil consumption in India hit a record high of 231 million tons, up from 219 million tons in 2022, according to data from the Indian Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas cited by Reuters market analyst John Kemp.

Besides being a major oil importer, India isn’t shying away from buying crude from whoever offers the lowest price. Over the past year, India has become a top buyer of Russian crude oil, alongside China, taking advantage of the discounts at which Russian grades are being offered compared to international benchmarks. 

India buys from abroad more than 80% of the crude oil it consumes. Over the past year and a half, the country has significantly raised its imports of cheaper Russian crude oil, which is banned in the West.

India sees its oil supplier base as diversified as it is buying crude from 39 sources at present, compared to 27 sources previously, Indian Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Hardeep Singh Puri, said in August last year.  

“If there’s a 30% discount, the Russians are putting a ribbon around it and sending it to us free. That’s what it means,” the minister told CNBC.

India is thus looking to make opportunistic spot purchases on top of its term sale agreements to meet its growing oil demand, which is only expected to rise in the coming decades. 

Economic growth is much higher than in any of the other major economies and is expected to remain robust in the near and medium term, Indian authorities and international investment banks say. 

Earlier this month, India’s National Statistical Office (NSO) said that real GDP growth during 2023-24 is estimated at 7.3%, up from 7.2% growth in 2022-23. 

“With strong domestic demand conditions, India remains the fastest growing major economy and is now the fifth largest economy in the world,” Shaktikanta Das, Governor of Reserve Bank of India, said in Davos last week.

“Strong domestic demand remains the main driver of growth, although there has been a significant increase in Indian economy’s global integration through trade and financial channels. Higher reliance on domestic demand cushioned India from multiple external headwinds,” the central bank governor added.

The strong economy would raise demand for oil, as will continued urbanization and industrialization, analysts say. 

India will be the driver of oil demand growth through 2045, expected to add 6.6 million bpd to oil demand over the forecast period, OPEC said in its latest annual outlook, in which it raised significantly its long-term projections and now expects global oil demand at around 116 million bpd in 2045, up by 6 million bpd compared to the previous assessment, as energy consumption continues to grow and will need all forms of energy.  

Analysts at Bernstein see India as the biggest growth driver over the next 20 years. 

“India has been less important, but, going forward, India is expected to be the most important single region driving demand growth over the next 20 years, making it a key country to watch for future demand,” Bernstein wrote in a note last month as carried by Business Insider.   

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

 

Toyota Chairman Questions EV Market Future

By ZeroHedge - Jan 24, 2024,

• Chairman Akio Toyoda doubts EVs will ever reach 30% of global market share, citing electricity access issues in parts of the world.
• 
  
• Toyota has been hesitant to fully adopt EV technology, focusing instead on hybrids and exploring hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
• 
  
• Recent market trends show a slump in EV demand, with used Tesla prices falling and companies like Ford adjusting their EV production strategies.
• 
  

Toyota's chairman and former CEO, Akio Toyoda, is at it again: providing the public with a dose of reality that electric vehicles will never dominate the global car market.

Toyoda, grandson of the founder of the world's largest car manufacturer, expressed at a business event this month, as reported by The Telegraph, that EVs will never capture 30% of global market share. 

He explained that petrol-burning vehicles and hybrids, along with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, will dominate. 

Toyoda made the point: How can EVs be the future when a billion people on Earth have no electricity? 

Data from Statista shows nearly a billion people in the world are living without electricity.

He noted: "Customers — not regulations or politics — should make that decision." 

Over the years, Toyota has openly demonstrated defiance against governments and NGOs pushing for 100% EVs in just a few decades, if not earlier. 

In October, Toyoda told reporters at an auto show in Japan that EVs aren't the silver bullet against the supposed ills of carbon emissions they're often made out to be.

Toyota has a history of being at the forefront of adopting new technologies. However, its slow EV adoption is because of its mistrust of lithium-ion batteries, and it has positioned itself to be a leader in hybrid vehicles.  

Perhaps Toyoda has been vindicated to some extent as EV demand slumps. 

In recent days, Ford announced plans to slash production of its all-electric F-150 Lightning in April "to achieve the optimal balance of production, sales growth and profitability." 

For those who purchased EVs during the Covid mania, the average price of a used Tesla has collapsed. 

And used Tesla prices are likely to slide more as rental car company Hertz Global Holdings has decided to dump 20,000 EVs onto the already sliding used car market.  

BloombergNEF data shows prices of EVs that were part of rental car fleets have also crashed. 

Toyoda concluded: "Engines will surely remain."

Will Elon Musk respond to Toyoda's comments?

By Zerohedge.com