THE SEIGE OF PARIS

800 tractors besiege Paris and set lorry ablaze

Around 800 tractors have surrounded the capital as farmers protest what they say are stringent environmental regulations, red tape and low pay.

Near Beauvais, north of Paris, dozens of tractors lined the highway in one of many such protests across the country. In the event of major disruption, Paris would only have three days’ food supplies, according to government agency Ademe.

Farmer protests converge on Paris as French government scrambles to address concerns

RFI
Mon, 29 January 2024 



French farmers will launch an indefinite "siege" of Paris beginning this Monday, choking off major highways and moving toward the capital as they demand better working conditions.

For days, nationwide protests have flared across France – Europe's largest agriculture producer, – with farmers angered in part by red tape and environmental policies they say are hurting their bottom lines and rendering them unable to compete with less stringent neighbours.

Across the country, farmers have used tractors and trucks to block roads and jam traffic. They plan to step up their pressure campaign by establishing eight chokepoints along the major arteries to Paris by Monday afternoon.

The government plans to mobilise some 15,000 police and paramilitary gendarmes in response, with the forces told to show "moderation".

French PM to visit farm as agricultural unions vow Paris 'siege'

"We don't intend to allow government buildings, or tax collection buildings, or grocery stores to be damaged or trucks transporting foreign produce to be stopped. Obviously, that is unacceptable," French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said ahead of the planned siege.

He said President Emmanuel Macron had instructed the security operation to ensure both Roissy-Charles de Gaulle airport to the north and Orly to the south remain open, and the Rungis international wholesale food market south of Paris continues to operate.


Read more on RFI English

Read also:
Why are French farmers angry and who will reap the rewards?
Angry farmers to stage tractor blockade of Paris as ministers mull solutions
French farmers block roads around Paris to protest low food prices

Protesting farmers block major roads into Paris
Jurgen HECKER with AFP bureaus
Mon, 29 January 2024 

PM Attal has promised more action to appease farmers (ALAIN JOCARD)

French farmers choked off major motorways around Paris on Monday, threatening to blockade the capital in an intensifying standoff with the government over working conditions.

In recent weeks there has been a slew of protests in France, a major agricultural producer, by farmers angry about incomes, red tape and environmental policies they say undermine their ability to compete with other countries.

Protesting farmers started the operation by blocking the A13 highway to the west of the capital, the A4 to the east and the A6 on which hundreds of tractors rolled towards Paris from the south.

By midafternoon they appeared to have met their objective of establishing eight chokepoints on major roads into Paris, according to Sytadin, a traffic monitoring service.

"We need answers," said Karine Duc, a farmer from the southwestern Lot-et-Garonne department as she joined a convoy of tractors heading for Paris.

"This is the final battle for farming. It's a question of survival," she told AFP.

One banner on a tractor in the convoy said: "We will not die in silence."

- Police to protect airports -

In response, the government ordered the deployment of 15,000 police and gendarmes.

Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin told security forces to show restraint, but he also warned the farmers not to interfere with strategic spots.

"We're not going to allow government buildings or tax offices or supermarkets to be damaged or lorries transporting foreign produce to be stopped," he said.

Darmanin said the protests would also not be allowed to affect Paris's Charles de Gaulle and Orly airports, or the Rungis international wholesale food market south of the city.

Armoured police vehicles were deployed to Rungis on Monday after some farmers threatened to "occupy" it.

Police and gendarmes are also under orders to prevent any incursion into Paris itself, Darmanin said.

The government has been trying to keep discontent among farmers from spreading ahead of European Parliament elections in June, which are seen as a key test for President Emmanuel Macron's government.

Macron called a meeting with several ministers Monday afternoon to discuss the situation, his office said.

Macron is also set to meet with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels on Thursday to discuss the crisis and support measures that farmers are demanding at the EU level, his office said.

During a visit to a farm on Sunday, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal sought again to address farmers' concerns after a raft of concessions announced on Friday failed to defuse the crisis.

"I want us to clarify things and see what extra measures we can take," he said.

Government spokeswoman Prisca Thevenot said "new measures will be taken tomorrow" to help farmers.

- 'Given us nibbles' -

Farmer leaders said the government's responses so far were insufficient.

"The prime minister has given us nibbles, and now we'd like him to work a bit harder and give us more," said Arnaud Lepoil, a member of the leading farmers' union FNSEA.

Arnaud Rousseau, the FNSEA's leader, and Young Farmers union boss Arnaud Gaillot were to meet with Attal later Monday, sources told AFP.

"Our goal is not to annoy French people or make their lives difficult but to put pressure on the government," Rousseau told the RTL broadcaster.

Earlier, around 30 activists from environmental group Greenpeace launched smoke grenades on Paris's Place de la Concorde near the Champs-Elysees.

They also unfurled a banner in support of the farmers before being escorted away by police.

Taxi drivers staged their own protest movement on Monday against what they say is insufficient remuneration for the transport of patients by the French health services.

Their go-slows added to the disruption on motorways.

In neighbouring Belgium, farmers have stepped up their own campaign, and in recent weeks farmers' protests have also grown in Germany, Poland, Romania and the Netherlands.

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As hundreds of tractors chug towards Paris in protest, the city is on the verge of being 'choked'

Sky News
Updated Mon, 29 January 2024


Paris is slowly being encircled.

From a variety of directions, the farmers are heading towards the French capital, bringing their anger to the heart of the nation.

Eight hundred tractors surround the city.

Since these protests erupted, they have, from a Parisian perspective, happened in other places, to other people.

The motorways across much of the nation may have been brought to a standstill, but not here. Not until now.

And while the fury of farmers may resonate loudly in those huge stretches of France where agriculture is still central to everyday life, that hasn't happened so much in Paris.

This extraordinary metropolis is, like London or New York, beset with boundless urban problems. It takes a lot for Parisians to start worrying about French farmers.

But now, that surely will change. As tractors and other agricultural vehicles ease their way noisily towards the capital, so Paris frets.

Could Paris be 'starved' by the protests?

The protest organisers have designated eight "choke points" that they are using to upset the flow of traffic.

The idea is, depending on who you believe, either to cause enough disruption to focus the minds of millions across the city or, more bluntly, to "starve" the population.

The spectre of starvation is an exaggeration, of course, but even the government's own agency, Ademe, has estimated that Paris has only three days' supplies of food, were it to be cut off.

Hyperbole is as much part of this protest as any other. But the rhetoric, backed up by the sight of hundreds of tractors driving down the main highways towards Paris, has certainly focused attention.

Aware of the protesters' plans to encircle Paris, the government has called up 15,000 police officers. That's not just to hold back the farmers but also to reassure a nervous city.

The government has held an emergency meeting of ministers. Tensions are high.

Giant fresh food market 'is the target'

And so we find ourselves standing outside Rungis International Market, an absolutely enormous complex dedicated to the sale of fresh food.

This is Europe's biggest produce market - the second-largest wholesale food market in the world. And right now, it is being protected by armoured police vehicles.

The market is a controversial focus for the farmers' protests.

Some believe it should be left alone, seeing as it is so key to their own prosperity.

But others maintain that the only way Paris will understand the value of its farming community is when it is cut off from their produce.

"Rungis market is the target," said Veronique Le Floc'h, president of Rural Co-ordination, an agricultural trade union.

Read more:
Woman sitting on haystack killed after car hits protesting farmers' roadblock

Nothing left to chance

The armoured vehicles sit outside the front entrance of the market, dark blue and looming.

Each has a turret, capable of firing grenades and even bullets. They are made of uncompromising thick metal. There is nothing gentle about this.

Around them are arranged the vans of the CRS, the French riot police familiar from so many protests over the years.

Not far away, a water cannon has been parked up. Not much is being left to chance here.

So far, the police response to this growing protest movement has been conciliatory. Blockades have been tolerated, disruption accepted.

But the simple truth is this: what can be accepted in the provinces will not be tolerated on the streets of Paris.

The spectre of the French capital being held to ransom is politically unacceptable.

Gabriel Attal, the 34-year-old prime minister, who's only been in the job for a few weeks, is already confronted with his first crisis of leadership.

But while the politicians and the police mull their response, so the tractors rumble forward.

They have already erected blockades on the main highways in and out of Paris. And more farmers are on the way.

French farmers lay siege to Paris with vow to cut off food

Henry Samuel

TELEGRAPH
Mon, 29 January 2024

Hundreds of tractors laid siege to Paris on Monday as farmers furious at French and European rules said they intended to “starve Parisians”.

Long lines of tractors blocked motorways at eight entry points to the city as one militant union promised to take control of the world’s biggest fresh food market.

“[Blockading Paris] will happen naturally. Parisians are going to be hungry. The goal is to starve Parisians. That’s it”, said Benoît Durand, a grain farmer.

Mr Durand, like thousands of others, said he was struggling against low income, red tape and environmental policies that were pushing costs up. President Emmanuel Macron, who is under mounting pressure to reassert his authority, was set to announce new measures for farmers as early as Tuesday, the Elysée said.

The protests follow similar action in other European countries, including Germany and Poland, ahead of European Parliament elections in June in which the hard-Right are making gains.

Protesters hang an effigy as they gather during a blockade on the A4 near Paris on Monday night - REUTERS

The main farming unions do not back strangling Paris’s food supplies but on Monday night angry farmers refused to move, setting up barbecues on motorways and sleeping in trailers.

In the event of major disruption, Paris would only have three days’ food supplies, as deliveries are made every day, according to Ademe, a government agency.

A group of 90 tractors left Agen, southwestern France, on Monday morning with the aim of “occupying” the Rungis food market, where more than 8,000 tons of goods pass through to feed nearly 12 million people every day.

The farmers are upset about increasing regulations hurting their livelihoods - REUTERS/Stephanie Lecocq

The tractors were due to reach the market, dubbed “the belly of Paris”, by Tuesday night or Wednesday at the latest. Their ranks were expected to swell considerably along the way. Some 10,000 farmers and 5,000 farm vehicles took part in action around the country, French police sources said on Monday.

Armoured military vehicles were dispatched to the market and 15,000 police and gendarmes were deployed around the country to prevent tractors from entering Paris and other major cities.

Gérald Darmanin, the interior minister, said he had ordered security forces to show moderation, but also warned farmers not to cross certain red lines. These included cutting off Paris’s main airports or Rungis.

“We don’t intend to allow government buildings, or tax collection buildings, or grocery stores to be damaged or trucks transporting foreign produce to be stopped. Obviously, that is unacceptable,” he said.

The government has tried to appease the protesters with a string of concessions in recent days. On Friday, it dropped plans to gradually reduce state subsidies on agricultural diesel and promised a reduction in red tape and an easing of environmental regulations.

Unions said that was not enough and pledged to step up the pressure.

Spirits were high on Monday night on the A1 highway at Chennevières-lès-Louvres, within sight of Roissy Charles de Gaulle airport, 25 kilometres north of Paris.

As night fell, farmers warmed their hands around bonfires and barbecued sausages as they sipped wine and beer. Behind, their tractors formed an impregnable convoy blocking off the capital.


As fires raged, Soft Cell’s UK hit “Tainted Love” and Madness’ “One Step Beyond” blasted over the farmers’ sound system as they chomped on beef burgers and temperatures approached zero.

“We’re here because we’ve had enough, we want to defend our pay, we’ve had enough of all the excessive red tape that’s even worse in France than the rest of Europe,” said Robin Leduc, 30, who runs a 200-hectare farm in Canly, not far from the tractor checkpoint.

“The government has to act fast then we can all go home as we have work to do on our farms.”

Mr Leduc said he had found an unlikely British ally in the shape of Jeremy Clarkson, who has gained plaudits for the Amazon Prime series Clarkson’s Farm, which charts his attempts at running a 1,000-acre farm in the Cotswolds.

“We need a French celebrity to do the same as Jeremy Clarkson. Everything he explains in it is why we are here today. You may have left the EU, but we share many of the same problems regarding all these environmental rules.”

Gendarmes look on as the protests continued into the night - Nathan Laine/Bloomberg

The government has been trying to keep discontent among farmers from spreading ahead of European Parliament elections in June, seen as a key test for Mr Macron’s government.

On Monday, the government said it would push its EU peers to agree to ease regulations on fallow farmland. Farmers must currently meet certain conditions to receive EU subsidies, including a requirement to devote four per cent of farmland to “non-productive” areas where nature can recover.

With cheap imports a burning issue, Mr Macron’s office also said he had told the European Commission it was impossible to conclude trade deal negotiations with South America’s Mercosur bloc. The president’s office believes it has an understanding that the EU has put an end to the talks.

The French president will make a push for more pro-farming policies at an EU summit on Thursday.

The French government has warned the farmers not to cross red lines including blocking airports or the capital's largest market - Loock francois / Alamy Live News

Henri Haquin, 43, who runs a 300-hectare farm in Bregy, north of Paris, said: “We get the feeling that Brussels doesn’t understand what we do and comes up with new laws every month that are difficult to understand and work with.”

He also has a real estate business to make ends meet, saying he won’t make a profit from his farm until he has paid off bank loans in a decade.

“Life on the farm is more and more difficult to make ends meet. We fear for the new generations. The main problem is unfair competition, lots of products from elsewhere without the same norms,” he said. “This is the only way we’ve found to get the government going”.

However, he insisted: “We clearly don’t want to starve Parisians. Only a small minority wants to block Rungis. For now, 90 per cent of the French are behind us. If we do that we’ll lose that support. We simply want to put pressure on the government and get solutions and go back on some laws we find completely ridiculous and inapplicable.

“All of the farmers in Europe are starting to move and say they can’t work with European laws as they are and I hope this can change things.”

Protests have taken place elsewhere in Europe, including in neighbouring Belgium, where farmers have stepped up their campaign against the administrative burden placed on them, including disrupting motorway traffic at the Daussoulx interchange near Namur.

The Daussoulx interchange in Belgium was blocked on Monday - ERIC LALMAND / Belga / AFP

Véronique Le Floc’h, president of France’s hard-Right-leaning Coordination Rurale union, said on Monday that farmers would target the Rungis market to “show the consequences if there are no more farmers tomorrow”.

She said that she wanted to “identify the proportion of imports and what type of products come in” to the market. In recent days, farmers have seized shipments from Belgium, Spain and Poland, scattering them across the highway and setting fire to them.

Marc Fesneau, the French agriculture minister, outlined a list of government “priorities” for farmers on Monday. These included tougher inspections on provenance of food products and “Frenchifiying farm products”, without providing more details.

EXPLAINER-Why are French farmers protesting?

Mon, 29 January 2024 
By Gus Trompiz, Sybille de La Hamaide

PARIS, Jan 29 (Reuters) - French farmers blocked major highways to Paris on Monday as they pursue protests over a range of grievances, despite several measures announced by the government.

Here are some of the issues that have prompted the protest movement and what the government could do next.

WHY ARE FARMERS PROTESTING?

Farmers in France, the EU's biggest agricultural producer, say they are not being paid enough and are choked by excessive regulation on environmental protection. Some of their concerns, like competition from cheaper imports and environmental rules, are shared by producers in the rest of the EU while other issues such as food price negotiations are more specific to France.

COSTS Farmers argue that a push by the government and retailers to bring down food inflation has left many producers unable to cover high costs for energy, fertiliser and transport.

A government plan to phase out a tax break for farmers on diesel fuel, as part of a wider energy transition policy, was also a flashpoint.

IMPORTS

Large imports from Ukraine, for which the EU has waived quotas and duties since Russia's invasion, and renewed negotiations to conclude a trade deal between the EU and South American bloc Mercosur, have fanned discontent about unfair competition in sugar, grain and meat.

The imports are resented for pressuring European prices while not meeting environmental standards imposed on EU farmers.

ENVIRONMENT, RED TAPE

Farmers take issue both with EU subsidy rules, such as an incoming requirement to leave 4% of farmland fallow, and what they see as France's overcomplicated implementation of EU policy, such as in restoring hedges.

Green policies are seen as contradicting goals to become more self-sufficient in production of food and other essential goods in the light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Rows over irrigation projects and criticism about animal welfare and pesticides have heightened feelings among an ageing French farmer population as being disregarded by society.

WHAT HAS THE GOVERNMENT DONE SO FAR?

The government is under pressure to defuse the crisis ahead of European elections in June and the annual Paris farm show in late February. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced on Jan. 26 the scrapping of diesel tax increases for farmers. He also set out steps to reduce red tape and offered extra aid including for farmers affected by a cattle disease in the south.

WHAT COULD HAPPEN NEXT?

The initial announcements drew mixed reactions and farmers' unions have called for protests to continue.

The government is maintaining a tolerant stance towards the protests, despite some violent incidents. It has ordered police, however, to protect Paris' airports and wholesale food market after calls for them to be targeted.

The government has promised further measures within days.

Further support for wine producers hit by falling consumption is being studied while additional measures for livestock are also expected.

With most agricultural policies and subsidies determined at EU level, Paris is seeking concessions from its partners, such as trying to build support for a waiver on the fallow land requirement, an issue President Emmanuel Macron could push at a leaders' summit on Thursday. On trade, another area run at EU level, Agriculture Minister Marc Fesneau called for measures to prevent imports from Ukraine destabilising EU markets, notably in sugar, poultry and eggs. That marks a shift by Paris, previously opposed to moves by eastern EU countries to limit flows of Ukrainian produce.

WHERE ELSE IN EUROPE ARE FARMERS PROTESTING?

Traffic around the Belgian capital was also disrupted by angry farmers on Monday and about a dozen tractors made it through to Brussels' EU area where they honked loudly.

Farmers stopped about five trucks with Spanish vegetables and dumped the produce near the distribution centre of Belgian retailer Colruyt near Brussels, Belgian media reported. Germany has also faced tensions, with protests erupting after a government decision to phase out a tax break on agricultural diesel as it tried to balance its 2024 budget. Earlier this month Berlin was brought to a near standstill as one of its central avenues filled with trucks and tractors. Farmers and truck drivers in Romania have also taken action this month with protests against high business costs blocking access to a border crossing with Ukraine. (Reporting by Gus Trompiz and Sybille de La Hamaide; editing by David Evans and Kylie MacLellan)

 

COSCO's Decision to Quit Israel Raises Strategic Concerns

File image courtesy COSCO

PUBLISHED JAN 28, 2024 8:10 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

 

The maritime security crisis in the Red Sea is creating new tensions over a Chinese-operated container terminals in Haifa. After China's state-owned ocean carriers ceased service to Israel, the chairman of the port of Ashdod accused China of "maintaining a trade boycott," and he threatened to stop sharing information with a Chinese-operated terminal in Haifa. 

In mid-December, Chinese-owned carrier OOCL said that it would suspend all shipments to and from Israeli ports, citing "operational issues." In early January its parent company - state-owned China COSCO, the world's largest shipowner - followed suit and canceled all service to Israel. The two lines have not provided further explanation, and the Israeli transport ministry has said that it is seeking clarification. 

Shipping from Asia to the Eastern Mediterranean has been seriously disrupted by Houthi rebel attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea. Virtually all large container ships are diverting away from the area and circling Africa instead. Ports in the Eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea are most affected by this decision, because they are the ports for which ex-Asia sailing distance increases most after to the diversion. The extra distance adds cost, and at least one service string to the Red Sea (from THE Alliance) has been suspended altogether.

In a letter obtained by Reuters, Shaul Schneider, chairman of the board of Ashdod Port, questioned whether COSCO's decision to quit Israel was motivated by business concerns. "In practice it is maintaining a trade boycott on Israel," said Schneider. In response, Schneider wrote, Ashdod Port will not share information with SIPG, the new operator of a container terminal at Port of Haifa. 

Israel's national ports and shipping regulator disagreed with his assessment, characterizing it as "inaccurate" and potentially harmful. In a written response, the head of the agency said that Schneider's sentiments could cause damage to "seaborne trade and foreign relations and even damage the war effort" in Gaza, according to Reuters. 

SIPG opened a new $1.5 billion modern terminal at Haifa in 2021. It was not without its critics: U.S. officials flagged the security risks of having a Chinese-operated port facility right next to an Israeli Navy base, where U.S. Navy vessels have called in years past. 

In 2022, Israel's government accepted an Indian bid to privatize the Haifa Port Company, which operates a large container terminal near SIPG's site. The 2022 award was widely viewed as a way to counterbalance Chinese interests in Haifa. 

Why China’s great property bust threatens to backfire on the West


Michael Bow

TELEGRAPH
Mon, 29 January 2024

China Evergrande

After years of turbulence, Chinese property giant Evergrande was hit with a winding-up order by a judge in Hong Kong on Monday, setting up a multibillion-dollar battle between Western creditors and Chinese authorities.

In a dramatic escalation of Evergrande’s plight, the world’s most indebted property company failed to convince Judge Linda Chan that it had a viable restructuring plan – three years after the company first defaulted on its debt.

“Enough is enough,” said Judge Chan, as she ordered Evergrande to liquidate.


The decision wiped a fifth off its share price in Hong Kong before trading was halted, meaning Evergrande – which was founded by Hui Ka Yan in 1996 – is now worth $275m (£216m) but has $328bn of debt.

Given the scale of its borrowings, it is unclear what happens next.

The one certainty is that there will be an almighty battle between Western financiers and Chinese policymakers.

Despite Evergrande’s liquidation being decided by a court in Hong Kong, the vast bulk of the company’s assets are held in mainland China.

This means Western investors who lent it billions of dollars must now proceed through the Chinese courts, pitting them against Beijing policymakers, retail investors, and small suppliers.

In theory, the latter two will rank lower than overseas investors when it comes to sharing payouts.

An ad hoc creditor group of offshore bondholders, advised by Moelis & Company and Kirkland & Ellis, has already been leading efforts to recoup cash but now they face a new challenge.

Will local authorities stiff them, further undermining China’s status as an international market? Or will they be minded to preserve China’s attractiveness to Wall Street and the City of London and pay investors back?

“If there’s a choice that needs to be made, I’m sure the Chinese Government will protect the domestic retail investor versus the foreign one,” said Natixis’ Hong Kong senior economist Gary Ng.

Evergrande has around 1,000 projects across mainland China, although Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Capital Economics, warns that investors will struggle to get their money back.

“Even if the mainland courts accept this, it is going to run into political and social issues,” he says.

“I don’t think local governments are going to be amenable to just selling them off and getting the money over as quickly as possible.”

For Western investors, the liquidation of Evergrande marks the end of a slow-motion car crash that started several years ago.

Before China’s property crisis, when the so-called Golden Era was in full swing, Evergrande raised money by issuing IOUs in dollars rather than renminbi to lure international investors.

Western fund managers like Ashmore, Amundi and Legal & General, as well as banks such as HSBC and UBS, lapped up so-called “Kungfu bonds”, with Evergrande holding around $19bn worth of IOUs at its peak.

However, as the company unravelled and ultimately defaulted, these bonds fell from being worth 95 cents in the dollar to just 20.

They are now trading at around just 1.5 cents in the dollar, attracting the attention of vulture funds who buy cheap debt to squeeze a few more pennies from insolvency.

In recent years, Evergrande’s debt has been acquired by funds such as Saba Capital Management, led by US hedge fund boss Boaz Weinstein, who made millions of dollars from the infamous “London Whale” trade.

It is unclear which investors sit in the bondholder group led by Moelis and Kirkland while Saba declined to comment.

However, one bond investor says: “At those prices, they will be purely distressed guys.

“These are teams where there are as many lawyers as there are portfolio managers because the key thing is trying to predict how courts will play it.”

Predicting how mainland courts in China will rule on commercial disputes is an unenviable task.

And in this case, China may be hesitant to follow through with Evergrande’s liquidation order for a range of complex political reasons.

Firstly, the Hong Kong court order was made on the same day that new rules designed to increase mutual recognition of judgements in courts between Hong Kong and China came into force.

How China responds to Evergrande will set a major precedent.

Secondly, the vast majority of Evergrande’s assets are in mainland China.

Local government financing has long been intertwined with property development and if Evergrande’s assets are rapidly sold, there could be a ripple effect of unintended consequences.

The third factor is that President Xi Jinping’s economic priorities have changed.

He now cares less about the message he sends to international investors as he tries to move the economy away from investment and property, says William Hurst, Chong Hua Professor of Chinese Development at the University of Cambridge.

Instead, he says the President is focusing on consumption and higher-value production.

“In the past, the Chinese government has frequently erred on the side of better protections for large foreign investors,” he says. “But certainly the Chinese government currently does favour the domestic economy over going back to the export-driven, foreign direct investment dependent model that was there for so many years.”

But Xi Jinping is being pulled in two directions.

“There’s a bit of schizophrenia,” Hurst adds. “On the one hand, there is huge domestic emphasis and a trepidation about too much international integration.

“On the other, there is an overriding imperative to try to bring global business back to China.”

The bond investor adds: “Xi is paranoid about a subprime crisis, which leaves him in a tough spot.

“The longer-term repercussions of this is that international investors are going to get less involved but he’s a bit less worried about that. He doesn’t necessarily mind. A bit less capital in there, keeping it cooler - he doesn’t feel that’s the end of the world.”

Still, as the saga moves to the next phase, the outcome for international investors may be more nuanced.

They could take a small haircut on their investment in return for the guarantee of at least some return on their cash.

“There’s still uncertainty about whether the offshore investors will be high enough in the repayment rankings to actually recover some of their assets and whether that will be enforced in China,” says Ng.

Undoubtedly, this will spark unease for investors around the world and all eyes will be on Beijing as Evergrande limbers up for the next stage of its crisis.

Is China’s birthrate slump a sign of global things to come?


Erika Page
Mon, 29 January 2024 

When the Chinese government imposed its one-child policy in 1980, the authorities feared an impending overpopulation disaster. Four decades later, they are worried by the opposite – the possibility of a population collapse.

Last week, China announced a drop in its population for the second year in a row. The government is scrambling to reverse what demographers classify as an “ultralow” birthrate nearing one child per woman, less than half the population replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman.

The declining population dilemma is attracting attention around the world. Birthrates are falling on every continent, raising questions about how humanity can and should respond.

“In the long run, if humanity’s average birthrate goes and stays below two, then the size of the human population will decrease,” says Dean Spears, associate professor of economics at the University of Texas at Austin. “There is no reason to be confident [the trend] is likely to reverse course soon or automatically.”

Almost everywhere, parents are choosing to have fewer children, whether for economic or personal reasons. Two-thirds of the planet’s population now lives in a region where the fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level, from 1.7 in the U.S. to 1.5 in Europe and 1.2 in East Asia.

Birthrates are higher in sub-Saharan Africa, but they are dropping there, too, from 6.8 to 4.6 births per woman since 1980. The global average has fallen from five births per woman in 1950 to 2.3 in 2021, often driven down by greater economic prosperity and women’s empowerment.

Demographers expect the world’s population to peak sometime in the second half of this century. Whether it will then stabilize or plummet is uncertain; if the whole world’s fertility rate followed the U.S. example, global population could decline as quickly as it has risen over the past two centuries.

But most experts warn against drawing long-term conclusions, especially those that spell disaster.

“To have lower fertility is not necessarily a negative situation,” says Patrick Gerland, a senior official at the United Nations Population Division. “It’s more, how does society adapt to this new reality?”

For generations, most people have worried about the threat of overpopulation. Books such as “The Population Bomb,” published in 1968, warned of mass global famine and upheavals caused by a coming population explosion. It was later deemed alarmist and largely inaccurate, which is not to say that countries with the highest birthrates do not still have difficulty meeting their citizens’ basic needs.

Lower birthrates lead to different economic dilemmas. Increasing life spans are a sign of global progress. But if fewer children are born and grow up to find jobs, that means there will be fewer working-age individuals to support retirees through traditional pension and healthcare systems. And a smaller pool of innovators and entrepreneurs, as well as consumers, could mean lower economic growth in the future.

Making it easy for couples to raise children may be the best way to encourage them to do so, says Dr. Gerland. He points to France and the Nordic countries as places whose family-friendly policies – from affordable child care to generous parental leave – may have helped stabilize, or even slightly increase, fertility rates in recent years.

Raising fertility rates, he says, “usually means a lot of social support to families, and especially combining work and family. To do it alone is very difficult.”

 csmonitor.com

Electric car battery giant CATL teams up with Didi to share swapping tech for ride-hailing fleet in new joint venture

South China Morning Post
Sun, January 28, 2024 


Chinese electric vehicle (EV) battery giant CATL and ride-hailing powerhouse Didi have formed a joint venture (JV) focusing on battery-swapping technology, as they seek to leverage their strengths to make headway in China's EV charging infrastructure market.

The tie-up will see the companies work closely to "swiftly build out battery-swapping stations and promote vehicles' support for swapping technology", according to a statement CATL published to its official WeChat account on Sunday.

The new venture will improve efficiency of public EV charging and make the transport sector greener, CATL said. It will also leverage the firms' technological and operational advantages by serving Didi's EV fleet from the offset.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

"The public transport market is characterised by a large user pool [and] high charging frequency ... making it a valuable business scenario for battery-swapping services," CATL said in the statement.

The JV announcement comes on the heels of a statement from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology at a conference held in late December that reiterated its support for battery-swapping tech, with pilot projects set to begin for public transport this year.

Battery-swapping stations rapidly spread throughout China in 2023, jumping 80 per cent from 2,000 stations last January to 3,567 by the end of December, according to data compiled by the Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance (EVCIPA).

Fixed charging facilities are still much more common, with 2.7 million public stands in China by the end of 2023. That was up 50 per cent compared with January's 1.8 million charging stands.

Proponents of battery swapping note that it takes just a few minutes compared with the 20 minutes it takes on average to charge a battery enough for around 300 miles (483km) of range, which can result in long wait times at charging stations.

Chinese EV maker Nio has taken the lead in promoting battery swapping, with 2,333 such stations in the country so far.

Nio is collaborating with Chinese carmakers Changan Automobile and Geely, among others, in multiple areas, including the development of battery-swapping standards. Through its partnerships, Nio is advocating for a standardised swapping protocol, as different methods across brands could hinder adoption.

Outside of its new JV, CATL is also teaming up with Xiaoju Energy - Didi's new energy solutions provider - to offer charging services in more than 190 Chinese cities.

Copyright (c) 2024. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

INTERNECINE FAMILY FEUD

Marcos, Duterte supporters rally in Philippines as family rift deepens
Cecil MORELLA
Sun, January 28, 2024 

Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte briefly appeared at the Marcos rally in Manila (JAM STA ROSA)

Thousands of supporters of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos and his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte gathered for rival rallies on Sunday, putting on a public display of a deepening rift between the powerful clans.

In the nearly two years since Marcos swept to victory with the help of his vice presidential running mate Sara Duterte -- the former president's daughter -- their so-called "Unity Team" has fractured.

After Marcos launched his "Bagong Pilipinas" (New Philippines) campaign to develop the country and make the government more accountable, his predecessor accused him of being a "drug addict" and of trying to change the constitution to prolong his term in office.

Sara Duterte briefly appeared at the Marcos rally in Manila, saying the education department that she also heads was "one with all the other government agencies in pushing for a New Philippines" -- before flying to her family's stronghold of Davao city for the rival event.

Relations between the families have deteriorated as they seek to shore up their respective support bases and secure key positions ahead of next year's mid-term elections and the 2028 presidential race, which Sara Duterte is widely expected to contest.

In the latest rift, Marcos has backed a campaign for the 1987 constitution, introduced after his dictator father and namesake was ousted from power, to be changed to allow in more foreign investment -- something the Dutertes have publicly opposed.

Critics warn the effort could pave the way for Marcos to seek another six-year term, which is currently prohibited.

That would potentially put him on a collision course with Sara Duterte for the top job.

At the Davao rally organised by opponents of constitutional change, the Duterte patriarch warned Marcos that "you may suffer your father's fate" and called on the police and military to "protect the constitution".

Earlier, Duterte's youngest son Sebastian openly dared Marcos to step down.

"If you don't show love and aspiration for the country, better resign," Sebastian told supporters, blaming Marcos for the drug and communist insurgency problems in the region.

Marcos has said the constitution's political provisions, including term limits for public officials, should be tackled later.

An ever-shifting coalition of powerful families has long ruled the Philippines, holding onto power for generations.

Left-wing political party Akbayan branded the rallies as a "dynastic war among ruling elites" that did not serve the interests of regular Filipinos.

Police estimated 400,000 people were at the Manila rally, many of them government workers, while more than 40,000 were at the Davao event.

"This would be the most public and deliberate way of letting the people know that the Unity Team is no more," University of the Philippines political science professor Jean Franco told AFP.

- Unravelling alliance -

In Manila, some members of the crowd told AFP they believed in Marcos, although they said they knew next to nothing about the constitution controversy.

"If he runs again why not, for as long as he is doing a good job for the country," Manila resident Dennis Ardea, 53, told AFP.

"The Dutertes belong to the past. We should go with another (leader)," Ardea added.

The unlikely alliance between the two families began to unravel soon after the 2022 election, with Marcos giving Duterte the problem-plagued education portfolio instead of her preferred post of defence secretary.

The deterioration has gathered pace since then, with the powerful House of Representatives Speaker Martin Romualdez, who is Marcos's cousin and also widely expected to seek the presidency in 2028, demoting influential congresswoman Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, a former president and close ally of Sara Duterte.

Romualdez also spearheaded efforts to strip the vice presidency and the education department of millions of dollars in special confidential funds.

And the House, where Marcos has a majority of support, has pushed for a pro-Duterte radio and television broadcaster to be stripped of its licence after one of its hosts made accusations against Romualdez over his travel budget.

Former Philippine leader's son calls President Marcos 'lazy', urges him to quit

Sun, January 28, 2024 

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

By Karen Lema

MANILA (Reuters) - Former Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte's son urged President Ferdinand Marcos Jr to resign on Sunday, calling him lazy and uncompassionate in a deepening rift between the two politically powerful families.

Marcos teamed up with Duterte's daughter Sara to make her vice-president in their 2022 election win. But cracks in the families' alliance have emerged as the incumbent has veered away from his predecessor's anti-drugs and foreign policies.


Sebastian Duterte, who is mayor of Philippines' third most populous city Davao, said there had been a resurgence in crime after his father's hardline campaign had been relaxed.

At a leadership forum, he also accused Marcos of endangering innocent Filipinos by allowing the Americans in, a reference to expanded U.S. access to military bases, including several close to Taiwan. The older Duterte had forged closer ties with China.

Sebastian Duterte also opposed Marcos' decision to restart peace negotiations with communist rebels, saying he did not know anything about the suffering of people living in areas that used to be rebel strongholds.

"You are lazy and you lack compassion. That's why we are unhappy," he said.

MID-TERM ELECTIONS LOOM

He spoke just before Marcos took the stage at a government-led rally in the capital to drum up support for his "Bagong Pilipinas (New Philippines)" campaign, where he has promised to improve state services and budget transparency.

Marcos' alliance with the Dutertes was crucial to his presidential victory, so a souring of their relations could have implications in his bid to solidify his support base ahead of the mid-term Senate and congressional election next year.

Sara Duterte, who is also education secretary, attended the president's rally before flying to Davao to join her father and siblings at a prayer rally against moves to amend the Philippine constitution, which Marcos backs.

Some opponents of constitutional change, including the Dutertes, say it is driven by an agenda to change the political system and remove term limits, including that of the president, who can currently serve just one six-year term.

"He is putting politics first, their self-preservation ... rather than focusing on the job," Sebastian Duterte said.

"Mr. President, if you have no love and aspirations for the nation, resign."

Like her brother, Sara Duterte has openly defied some of Marcos' policies, including the peace talks with communist rebels which she said was an "agreement with the devil."

There was no immediate comment from Marcos' office or from the vice president on Sebastian Duterte's remarks.

(Reporting by Karen Lema; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne)


Marcos Calls for Unity as Duterte’s Son Seeks His Resignation

Ditas Lopez and Cliff Venzon
Sun, January 28, 2024


(Bloomberg) -- Thousands of people gathered at separate rallies by Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte amid indications of a widening rift between the two camps that formed an alliance to win the 2022 elections.

“We face a complex and changing world. It calls for a united response that will make our nation strong, our economy sound and our children’s future secure,” Marcos said as he launched his “Bagong Pilipinas,” or “New Philippines,” campaign at the Quirino Grandstand in Manila’s Rizal Park. “We cannot meet these challenges if no common purpose energizes us.”

Vice President Sara Duterte, who ran with Marcos in the 2022 elections, told the Manila crowd that she supports Marcos’s vision of a “New Philippines” and that the Education Department that she heads is working toward that goal. She left, before Marcos arrived, to attend the rally organized by her family’s supporters in the southern city of Davao.

Her brother, Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte, meanwhile, criticized the present administration’s policies and called for Marcos to resign, CNN Philippines reported.

The Manila crowd — which included some Cabinet officials, lawmakers and employees from various agencies — reached 400,000, according to the Presidential Communications Office.

“Bagong Pilipinas is not a political game plan that caters to a privileged few. It is a master plan for genuine development that benefits all people,” Marcos said. In a speech that lasted about 20 minutes, he highlighted the need to restore the people’s trust in government and for the state to be worthy of that trust.

He pledged to boost the country’s defenses, address trading and transport bottlenecks and increase farm support to help fight El Nino. He also promised sufficient books and well-trained teachers as part of the reforms in education.

As the Manila rally wrapped up, former President Duterte spoke at a separate gathering called “One Nation, One Opposition” in Davao City.

Duterte warned Marcos that he might suffer his father’s fate, ABS-CBN News reported. The late dictator, Ferdinand Marcos, was ousted by a popular revolt in 1986.

By early evening Sunday, the crowd at the Davao City rally was estimated at 17,000, online media Rappler posted on X, citing the police.

The Manila and Davao rallies “highlight a distressing reality: the dynastic war among ruling elites, which serves only to further cement the interests of political dynasties and entrenched elites, while neglecting the pressing needs of the Filipino populace,” Rafaela David, president of political party Akbayan, said in a statement.

--With assistance from Clarissa Batino.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.


In Philippine Presidential Polls Looking to 2028, Duterte’s Daughter Is Already the Frontrunner

Chad de Guzman

TIME
Sat, January 27, 2024 

Sara Duterte-Carpio campaigns in the City of Parañaque ahead of the Philippines’ 2022 national elections. Credit - Aaron Favila—AP

2024 may be the world’s biggest-ever election year, but in the Philippines, voters are already looking ahead to 2028.

While current President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., elected in mid-2022, hasn’t even reached his second year in office yet, the country’s constitution currently permits only a single presidential term of six years, opening up early speculation about whom his successor may be.

And based on a new poll, provided to TIME on Thursday, by local public opinion firm WR Numero Research, Vice President and Education Secretary Sara Duterte-Carpio, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, appears to command a significant lead.

Read More: Leila de Lima Is Free but Not Finished Fighting: Exclusive Q&A With Duterte’s Fiercest Critic

Almost 36% of respondents to a survey of Filipino adults in December said they would vote for Duterte-Carpio if elections were held now. This follows a privately commissioned poll conducted by statistics firm Social Weather Stations last July that also showed Duterte-Carpio as the most-preferred candidate.
More From TIME

Trailing behind her in both polls is Senator Raffy Tulfo, a tough-talking former broadcaster and social media darling who has carved out a niche for himself with his public service programs, followed by former Vice President and leading opposition figure Leni Robredo. Tulfo was chosen by 23% of the respondents and Robredo by 9% in the latest survey.

Duterte-Carpio, now 45, had already been leading presidential surveys in 2022, but surprised everyone when instead she chose to be Marcos Jr.’s running mate—creating an election powerhouse that practically shot down any chance by the opposition to win.

In the Philippines, the President and Vice President are elected separately. Duterte-Carpio won the vice presidency in 2022 with 32.21 million votes or 61.5% of the votes cast—more than Marcos Jr., who won the presidency with 31.62 million votes or 58.7% of the total votes cast at the same time. Of the country’s four highest-ranking officials, including Senate President and House Speaker—Duterte-Carpio also currently has the highest approval ratings.

Both Marcos Jr. and Duterte-Carpio have struggled to address the mass killings that happened under the leaderships of their fathers. Rodrigo Duterte was the architect of a nationwide drug war that killed tens of thousands, while the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr. oversaw a period of corruption and human rights abuses from 1965 to 1986. Yet the two former leaders’ children enjoy massive domestic popularity, in part due to pervasive disinformation campaigns as well as the undying influence of political dynasties in the Southeast Asian country.

Koch officials tell donors Nikki Haley was the right candidate to back, despite early losses to Trump

Fredreka Schouten, CNN
Sun, January 28, 2024 

Officials in the political network affiliated with billionaire Charles Koch on Saturday defended their heavy investment in Nikki Haley’s long-shot campaign to derail former President Donald Trump’s bid for the GOP presidential nomination.

In a presentation to the network’s top donors, Emily Seidel and Michael Palmer – senior advisers to Americans for Prosperity Action – said the narrowing of the GOP race to just Trump and Haley demonstrates she was the right candidate to back as a Trump alternative, according to a summary of the presentation provided to CNN by an AFP Action official.

AFP Action endorsed the former South Carolina governor in November and will continue to support her – even as she faces what Koch officials acknowledge is an “uphill battle” for the nomination.

Seidel and Palmer, however, also emphasized that the organization stands ready to shift its resources and say that flipping the Senate from Democratic control is a top priority that grows all the more important if Trump wins the nomination.

The presentation from AFP Action officials came Saturday afternoon to top donors in the libertarian-leaning network associated with Koch – a Kansas industrialist who has worked to spread his free-market ideas through investments in politics, think tanks, philanthropic groups and educational institutions.

In all, some 400 contributors affiliated with the network are meeting in Indian Wells, California, for an annual winter summit.

Haley is rebuffing calls by Trump and his allies to exit the race, despite finishing 11 points behind the former president in New Hampshire. She plans an ambitious round of fundraising with events in the coming days in New York; Palm Beach, Florida; and Miami.

Haley also had a short video call with top Koch donors to describe how she sees the race overall and in South Carolina, the next potentially competitive contest on the GOP primary calendar.

Campaign managers for Haley and Trump also both plan to attend an upcoming gathering in Florida of another influential GOP donor group, the American Opportunity Alliance, two sources told CNN.

Alliance members include prominent investors Ken Griffin and Paul Singer, real-estate investor Harlan Crow and members of the Ricketts family, owners of the Chicago Cubs.

The Florida meeting was first reported by Puck.

As CNN reported Friday, some donors who have backed Haley say they are now redoubling their efforts to secure GOP victories in congressional races, following Trump’s big wins in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The summary provided of Saturday’s presentation to Koch donors echoes recent public statements from AFP Action’s leaders.

The group has invested millions to back Haley’s candidacy and already has spent more than $3 million on advertising in South Carolina, according to AdImpact data. AFP officials say they have reached out to more than 420,000 South Carolina voters and were knocking on more doors in the Palmetto State this weekend.

Still, Trump remains the clear favorite in Haley’s home state, which holds its primary February 24.

CNN’s Kylie Atwood contributed to this report.

A convoy calling themselves 'God's army' plans to head to the Texas border to stop migrants from entering the US

ITS A WHITE PROTESTANT MILITIA 

MIGRANTS ARE CATHOLIC

Alia Shoaib
Updated Sun, January 28, 2024

A convoy is heading to the southern border to stop migrants from entering the United States.

The group's leader described their tactics as "domestic internal defense."

It is not clear what the group plans to do once they reach the border.

A convoy of hundreds of people plans to head to the Texas border to stop migrants from crossing into the US from Mexico.

The group, called "Take Our Border Back," is organizing on Telegram and now has more than 1,600 followers.

Vice reported that one of the group's organizers described them as "God's army" in a planning call.

"This is a biblical, monumental moment that's been put together by God," one organizer said, Vice reported.

Another said: "We are besieged on all sides by dark forces of evil."

"Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called the sons of God. It is time for the remnant to rise," they said.

Pete Chambers, a group organizer, has claimed he was a Green Beret. He explained the group's plans while speaking to the right-wing conspiracist Alex Jones on his Infowars show on Thursday.

"That's what Green Berets do. Unconventional warfare is our bread and butter. Now we're doing domestic internal defense," Chambers said.

"What gets us to the enemy quickly is to find, fix, and finish, exploit, analyze, and disseminate," Chambers said, referring to a military process. "That's what we did in Syria when we took out ISIS really quick."

He said the group would work with sympathetic members of law enforcement who he described as "constitutionally sound."

The convoy is due to begin on Monday, starting in Virginia Beach, Virginia, and three rallies will be held in San Ysidro, California; Yuma, Arizona; and Eagle Pass, Texas, on February 3.

The group has sub-groups on Telegram for drivers and riders in those three states to coordinate transportation.

The website describes the event as a "peaceful assembly" inviting all "law-abiding, freedom-loving Americans."

Wired published an article describing the group as an "armed convoy," after which the group wrote on Telegram: "We are not making a call to arms. A call to engage with anyone crossing the border. We are here to peacefully protest under our 1st amendment right and pray!"

The group said that one of their goals is to stop illegal immigration immediately and close the border. It is not clear how the group plans to confront migrants at the border and stop them from entering the country.

Texas National Guard troops are in a standoff with the federal government after they rolled out razor wire at a park on the bank of the Rio Grande, where migrants often cross.

Chambers described those troops as "holding the line," and said his convoy would go to an area about 30 miles away.

Republican Rep. Keith Self of Texas has said that he supports the convoy.

Tensions have been rising around immigration, and the issue looks likely to be a major one in the presidential election later this year.

Migration levels are reaching record levels, with US officials saying around 300,000 people tried to cross the border in December.


Texas-bound 'Take Our Border Back' convoy to 'shed light' on migrant crisis, 'send a message' to leaders

Sarah Rumpf-Whitten

FOX NEWS
Sat, January 27, 2024 

JACUMBA HOT SPRINGS, CA - DECEMBER 17: Migrants attempt to cross in to the U.S. from Mexico at the border December 17, 2023 in Jacumba Hot Springs, California. Asylum seekers are stuck in makeshift camps in the extreme climate of the US-Mexico border. (Photo by Nick Ut/Getty Images)



Large groups of concerned Americans are traveling toward the southern border to demand action from the Biden administration to fix the "wide open" flood of illegal migrants.

"Fellow citizens and compatriots ... I call on you in the name of liberty, of patriotism and everything dear to the American character to come to our aid with all dispatch," Pete Chambers, one of the coalition’s commanders, wrote on the "Take Our Border Back" website.

"If this call is neglected, we are determined to sustain ourselves as long as possible and act like soldiers who never forget what is due to our own honor and that of our country," Chambers wrote.



A Freedom Convoy demonstrator holds a "Hold The Line" sign while dancing in Ottawa, Canada.

The multi-state convoy is set to begin on Feb. 3, Take Our Border Back wrote in a press release.

The convoy will span cities from Virginia Beach, VA to Eagle Pass, Texas.

The truck gathering will branch off and hold rallies in Arizona, California and Texas, the press release said.

The convoy aims to "send a message" to local, state and federal officials to close the border and deport all illegal immigrants in its plan to "shed light" on open borders.

"Call for immediate action to secure our borders before irreversible serious consequences befall our nation," the press release said. "All are welcome to participate- peacefully!"

ABBOTT DECLARES TEXAS HAS ‘RIGHT TO SELF-DEFENSE’ FROM MIGRANT ‘INVASION’ AMID FEUD WITH BIDEN ADMIN

The press release noted that along with shedding light on the "wide open" borders, their aim is to request lawmakers to "uphold" all U.S. Constitutional laws.

The activists also hope to "slow and ultimately stop" drug and human trafficking "associated with open borders."

The press release said that the convoy reflects the "vibrant American spirit" that unites "We the People."

"We the People are resolute to stand to send a peaceful, lawful, and clear message to all city, state, and federal politicians and immigration enforcement officials who are enabling tens of thousands of illegal entrants, criminals and known terrorists from over 160 countries worldwide to cross daily into our country along our southern border!" the press release said.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott looks on during a news conference on March 15, 2023 in Austin, Texas. Abbott has butted heads with big-city mayors over the migrant crisis at the southern border.

The convoy comes as part of a multi-faceted standoff between Texas and the Biden administration on how to deal with the ongoing border crisis.

TEXAS AGAIN REBUFFS BIDEN ADMIN'S DEMAND FOR ‘FULL ACCESS’ TO DISPUTED BORDER AREA

The Supreme Court this week sided with the administration when it granted an emergency appeal to allow agents to keep cutting border wire set up by Texas after a lower court had blocked such moves. However, Border Patrol currently has "no plans" to remove the wire unless in an emergency, a senior CBP official told Fox on Friday.

President Joe Biden speaks during an event at Earth Rider Brewery in Superior, Wisconsin, US, on Thursday, Jan. 25, 2024.

The Biden administration has also sued over the Texas law, recently signed by Abbott, that allows state and local law enforcement to arrest illegal immigrants. There has been another legal feud over the establishment of buoys by Texas in the Rio Grande.

Abbott has said Texas has a right to "self-defense" against what he says is federal inaction about a migrant "invasion."

The Biden administration has said that Texas is interfering with the federal enforcement of immigration law.

Abbott's office did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital's request for comment.

Fox News' Adam Shaw contributed to this report.

The  U.S. Supreme Court could soon boost the bipartisan effort to criminalize homelessness

Tatyana Tandanpolie

SALON
Sat, January 27, 2024

Homeless tents; Kentucky; Brett Kavanaugh Photo illustration by Salon/Getty Images

As local governments across the United States began the massive task of counting the nation's unhoused people this week, legislators in states like Kentucky are gearing up to criminalize homelessness — with the Supreme Court recently agreeing to hear a landmark case out of California that will decide how far cities can go in punishing unsheltered people.

An army of volunteers began conducting the annual Point-in-Time surveys this week to map the extent and gravity of the nation's homelessness crisis, collecting counts of how many people are currently experiencing homelessness to submit to the federal government. Federal resources are allocated to local communities each year based on the national count.

The survey comes two weeks after the Supreme Court agreed to consider whether fining or arresting people experiencing homelessness, and who don't have access to alternative shelter, violates the Eighth Amendment. The case will impact camping policies nationwide.

One such policy, expansive legislation that would permit property owners to use force — including potentially lethal force — against unhoused people found camping on private property, passed Kentucky's GOP-controlled House of Representatives Thursday. House Bill 5, also known as the "Safer Kentucky Act," includes provisions related to drug possession, bail and homelessness that would intensify criminal penalties for a range of offenses.

Advocates for unhoused Kentuckians have criticized the bill's anti-homelessness provisions, one of which provides that a property owner's use of force is "justifiable" if that individual thinks robbery, criminal trespass or "unlawful camping" is taking place on the property. That justification extends to "deadly physical force" in the event a defendant believes an unhoused person is attempting to "dispossess" them of the property, robbing them or committing arson. The legislation would also bar local municipalities from trying to preempt state laws and make illegal unsanctioned encampments that unhoused Kentuckians erect.

Representatives in the state's lower chamber passed the legislation Thursday evening in a 74-22 vote, according to the Louisville Courier-Journal, pushing the matter to the state's Senate.

Supporters of the bill say its full slate of measures would improve overall public safety. But it only "purports" to do so, counters Catherine McGeeney, the director of communications for Louisville organization Coalition for the Homeless.

"We're alarmed that the state legislature is saying that, 'We care about the safety of property owners. We care about the safety of people who have homes, but we are unconcerned with the safety of people who are unhoused or unsheltered,'" McGeeney told Salon before the vote took place Thursday.

As the country's homelessness and housing crises deepen, HB 5 represents a spate of policies that have cropped up across the US that work to criminalize unhoused Americans in increasingly extreme measures, often going against known evidence-based approaches to ending homelessness.

A "State Level Homelessness Criminalization" tracker, developed by the National Homelessness Law Center and the National Coalition for the Homeless, has tracked 29 bills that have been introduced in state legislatures across the US in the last three years. Most anti-homeless legislation, however, appears at the local level, which the tracker does not account for, Jesse Rabinowitz, the National Homelessness Law Center's campaign and communications director, explained.

A majority of these state-level policies aim to implement some form of statewide ban on building encampments in certain public spaces and seek to impose fines or criminal penalties for doing so. Others also authorize law enforcement to clear these camps or cut funding from evidence-based, supportive approaches like Housing First programs, which prioritize getting unhoused people into permanent housing without requiring them to first participate in other services.

Earlier this month, a bill was introduced in Indiana that would ban and criminalize camping statewide, classifying it as a Class C misdemeanor punishable by up to 60 days in jail and a $500 fine, among a slate of other measures.

Two bills in California's State Legislature that failed in committee last year have been granted reconsideration and amended this year. An assembly proposal seeks to authorize local prosecutors to impose a $10 fine on anyone who camps within 10 feet of a school, while a senate bill aims to prohibit a person from sitting, lying, sleeping or storing personal property on any public right-of-way within 1000 feet of a school, daycare center, park or library.

But the "Safer Kentucky Act" marks a new height in the extremity of the measures because of it's allowance for use of force, Rabinowitz told Salon.

"The Kentucky bill was certainly the most extreme example we've seen," he said. "But all of these efforts to criminalize and arrest people experiencing homelessness, to take away the housing that ends homelessness and to force people to live in state-sanctioned camps, are extreme."

The policies seeking to address homelessness aren't distinctly partisan, Dennis Culhane, a professor of social policy at the University of Pennsylvania specializing in homelessness, told Salon. Instead, they come from both liberal and conservative local and state governments succumbing to pressure from commercial business leaders and the tourism industries, which often take issue with the visibility of encampments erected by unhoused people, he said.

Ann Oliva, the CEO of the nonpartisan National Alliance to End Homelessness, agreed but noted that some of the "really damaging rhetoric comes from the very top" and the right wing, citing former President Donald Trump's comments on homelessness during his 2024 campaign.

Many of the state bills follow the model legislation outlined by the Cicero Institute, a self-described "non-partisan policy organization" that Vice reported runs Libertarian. The legislation offered by the institute, which has been lobbying for anti-homeless bills across the country, calls for banning camping and curtailing funding for Housing First programs, which the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development endorses.

The "Safer Kentucky Act" mirrors the Cicero Institute guidelines, as do 18 others included in the homelessness criminalization tracker.

But those suggested measures diverge from data, which instead shows that providing safe and affordable housing to people is the best solution to the nation's homelessness crisis, Oliva told Salon.

A 2020 analysis carried out by researchers for HUD and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that, compared to treatment first programs, Housing First programs decreased homelessness rates by 88 percent and improved housing stability by 41 percent. The study also saw participants in the programs reporting an improvement in quality of life, community integration and positive life changes compared to clients in treatment first programs.

In Louisville, Kentucky, for example, Housing First programs have maintained a 97 to 98 percent success rate over the last decade in keeping people housed for more than two years, said McGeeney, who noted the programs are unable to serve all unhoused people in Louisville because of a lack of funding.

Punitive measures instead cause detriment to the person experiencing homelessness, social services and the system overall, ultimately extending "people's homelessness, rather than actually solving the problem for them," Oliva said.

Being ticketed, fined or arrested for "living in an unsheltered location" can "snowball" for a person experiencing homelessness because they lack the resources to pay the fine, she continued. Repeated fines over time stack up into a criminal offense that will then appear on the person's criminal record, and the record will make it more difficult to obtain a job or a lease for housing.

Other criminalizing measures, like encampment clearings, further build unhoused Americans' distrust in the system, while disconnecting them from resources and social services that they've already started processes with, Oliva continued. That displacement makes it more challenging for service providers to locate the unsheltered person, address their needs and continue to build trust, which detracts from the goal of providing housing.

"We don't have enough resources in the system to serve everybody, but this kind of approach actually makes the system less efficient. It makes the system have to work harder to get a person into a stable situation," Oliva added, noting that these disadvantages also further marginalize groups who are overrepresented in the homeless population like Indigenous and Black people, disabled people and LGBTQ people.

Just over 653,000 people in the US were experiencing homelessness in on any given night in 2023, according to HUD's 2023 Annual Homelessness Assessment report. Nearly 257,000 of those Americans were unsheltered, a number marked by a 10 percent increase in the volume of people experiencing unsheltered homelessness between 2022 and 2023. That value, according to Oliva, has increased every year since 2006.

Forty percent of the more than 1.1 million year-round, dedicated beds nationwide were available to people currently experiencing homelessness, the report also found. But an approximately "200,000 bed shortfall" compared to the number of people experiencing homelessness still remained, it said.

Want a daily wrap-up of all the news and commentary Salon has to offer? Subscribe to our morning newsletter, Crash Course.

The underlying cause of homelessness in the country today is its lack of affordable and accessible housing, according to Culhane, who previously served as the director of research at the National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans.

As unsheltered homelessness has boomed, the number of cost-burdened renter households has hit a record high, amounting to 22.4 million in 2022, according to a new report on U.S. rental housing from Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies. Fifty percent of all renter households were also cost-burdened in 2022, a value up 3.2 percent from 2019 and 9 percent from 2001.

"When we had provided access to low-cost housing, for example, throughout much of the 20th century before the decline in Skid Row, there were [single room occupancies], there were hotels and single room rentals that were available to people," Culhane told Salon.

"We used to have a safety net — [Supplemental Security Income] and Medicaid — that, for better or worse, was preventing most cases of homelessness, and that's not true anymore," he added, noting that the SSI program has only increased according to the consumer price index every year, but the CPI doesn't factor in housing costs, which is much higher than the CPI.

According to HUD's Office of Policy Development and Research, the early 1980s saw two severe recessions, persistent inflation and an economic shift due to deindustrialization that devastated cities and led to the contemporary homelessness and housing crises. "This economic shift, along with the widespread deinstitutionalization of individuals experiencing mental illness, cuts to core programs at HUD and other agencies funding social services, and an inadequate supply of affordable housing facilitated a dramatic rise in homelessness," the office wrote in a Spring 2023 periodical.

These factors make clear the stakes in the Supreme Court's decision earlier this month to take on this session what Rabinowitz calls "the most significant case on homelessness since the 1980s": Grants Pass, OR v. Johnson, Gloria, et al.

According to Vox, the case is a challenge to a 2018 federal class action lawsuit in which three people charged the city of Grants Pass of illegally punishing them for being involuntarily homeless. Grants Pass argued unhoused people could just go elsewhere.

A three-judge panel of the Ninth Circuit in 2022 ruled in favor of the plaintiffs, maintaining that the city, consistent with the Eighth Amendment on cruel and unusual punishment, could not enforce anti-camping laws against unsheltered people when no other shelter was available to them.

If the high court, which Rabinowitz said will hear oral arguments in April, rules in favor of Grants Pass, raises the potential for a "domino effect" that would push more elected officials toward criminalization instead of pursuing housing and services programs, Oliva said.

"When one community like Grants Pass basically makes it illegal to be homeless in their community and they're allowed to do that, where do people go?" she asked. "The question that I keep asking everybody is, 'Where do you think people can go?"

If unsheltered people attempt to go to another neighboring town or city in search of shelter and that municipality also does not have enough shelter or allow them to camp, they're left with limited options, including camping on federal property, has had "disastrous effects," Oliva said. "It just moves people around it doesn't actually solve the issue."

"Nobody wants people to be outside," she added, arguing that the U.S. "should not be in a situation where people are forced to be outside. But we should also create responses that treat people like people."

An overload of solar panels cut prices in half last year — but not in the US

Filip De Mott
Sat, January 27, 2024 

A bird sits on a solar panel at a solar power station on the outskirts of Simferopol, March 25, 2014.REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko

Global solar panel prices have crashed by 50% as China has flooded the market with modules.


But US prices saw a much smaller decline, given barriers to its trade with China.


Instead, a jump in domestic demand has helped prices slide, though this may change in 2024.

A massive pileup of solar panels last year has halved the average price of the modules, as China's blowout manufacturing sent supply soaring.

According to the International Energy Agency, the country is on track to account for 85% of global solar-module manufacturing by 2028. Its output has been so strong that it recently forced the closure of one of Europe's largest solar production plants, while fueling a panel supply glut that has yet to be unwound.

"Prices in Europe have significantly cratered, because of that oversupply and stockpiling," David Feldman of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory told Business Insider. "In the US, it's a different story."

Instead, the US solar market has largely stayed insulated from the supply flood, with less than 0.1% of module imports coming from China. Between the first and third quarter last year, US modules depreciated by only 10%-15%, Wood Mackenzie reported in December.

That's as US legislation effectively bars solar panel trade with China. Restrictions include tariffs, as well as the US Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA), a 2022 law that prohibits imports from China's Xinjiang region.

Still, some of the domestic depreciation was a result of the ripple effects from China's output, Feldman said. Some Chinese companies have set up manufacturing in other parts of Southeast Asia, allowing them some access to American markets.

But for the most part, US price declines and stockpiling result from internal changes.

There was indeed some level of oversupply, as the enactment of UFLPA and other trade barriers with China created supply crunch worries.

"There were just concerns about installers getting panels," Feldman said. "So developers and installers were working to sort of get a good supply chain, and there was potentially a little bit of an overwhelm."

Meanwhile, demand has generally jumped, incentivized by the Inflation Reduction Act and the technology's increasing efficiency and cheapness.

But the pipeline for new projects has slowed considerably, Feldman said. On a national level, demand for solar has been dampened by higher interest rates, and debt financing has become much more expensive.

As projects are set to run dry in California as well as the Northeast, residential solar installations could decline by 12% this year, Wood Mackenzie estimated.

But the research firm expects this to be a singular dip, and for the market to recover by an annual rate of 10% between 2025 and 2028.

"[Analysts] are expecting significant increases, but that said, manufacturing has probably grown more than that. So it might be a few years for demand to catch up with the amount of manufacturing that has happened," Feldman said.