It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Only two new supertankers are expected to join the global fleet in 2024, the lowest number in forty years.
Houthi attacks on commercial shipping and airstrikes by the US and UK have forced tankers to navigate around Africa, leading to longer sails and tighter capacity on the seas.
Tanker rates have surged, and the tanker order book is expected to remain extremely low in the coming years, exacerbating the shortage.
The Red Sea shipping crisis has been an explosive mess for the international shipping community and the global economy. With oil tankers increasingly steering clear of the southern Red Sea and the Bab el Mandeb Strait, shipping capacity has rapidly tightened, pressuring daily rates higher.
Bloomberg reports only two new supertankers will join the global fleet in 2024, the fewest additions in forty years and about 90% below the yearly average over the last two decades.
"The impact of the diversions can be seen every day in shipping in general, and I would say crude oil and product tanker shipping," specifically, Alexander Saverys, CEO of Euronav NV, one of the largest tanker owners in the world, told investors during an earnings call earlier this month.
Saverys said low deliveries and an aging global fleet are a perfect recipe for a positive outlook on tankers.
We have stated that Houthi attacks on commercial shipping are the "next supply-driven inflation shock." As a result, a key Clean Tanker rate tracked by the Baltic Exchange has moved north of $100,000 per day due to the disruptions, caused longer sails, which tightens capacity on the seas.
The US and UK airstrikes on Houthi militants in Yemen were one of the major drivers that sent tanker rates soaring in the second half of January. Many of these tankers, hauling fuels like gasoline and diesel, have been forced to navigate around Africa.
Charts from the latest Goldman Oil Tracker (full report available to pro subscribers in the usual place) show flows through the Bab-El-Mandeb continue to deteriorate and remain down 1.8mb/d (or 27% on a 14DMA Basis) since disruptions started on December 18.
Goldman also shows tanker rates have surged.
"The situation is tight in the tanker market, in particular for crude oil tankers," said Enrico Paglia, research manager at Banchero Costa, a shipping services firm. He warned, "It will be even tighter in the future."
Bloomberg noted, "The tanker shortage comes as the efficiency of the global fleet is faltering. In addition to many vessels sailing around southern Africa instead of through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, a burgeoning dark fleet means that many ships are only available to certain customers."
Meanwhile, data from Banchero Costa shows the tanker order book will be extremely low in the next couple of years: Only five new tankers are expected to join the global fleet in 2025. That compares with 42 ships delivered in 2022.
How long until the next tanker glut?
By Zerohedge.com
Video: Rubymar’s Position is Precarious as Ship Becomes Political Pawn
Rubymar in an undated video from Al-Jumhuriya TV (Youtube)
Dramatic video of the crippled bulker Rubymar appeared on TV news reports in Yemen showing the increasingly precarious state of the vessel 10 days after it was struck by a Houthi-launched missile. Efforts to mount a salvage continue to be hampered by the instability of the region and the competing political interests while some reports suggest at the rate the vessel is settling it could be days before it loses sufficient buoyancy to remain afloat.
The video shows the 32,200 dwt bulker (564 feet/172 meters in length) having settled further at the stern. Images obtained by the BBC last week showed the stern deck just barely above the water but in the undated video, it has clearly slipped below the water level. U.S. Central Command warned on Friday that the vessel was still leaking fuel oil and taking on water.
The vessel is also reported to be drifting to the north in the Red Sea despite the earlier indications that it was anchored. It has traveled approximately 37 nautical miles since the reported position when it was struck according to data analyzed by the British news outlet Sky News. They are citing navigational warnings saying the vessel is unmanned and drifting.
The manager of the vessel Blue Fleet Group told Sky News it was working on plans for the salvage that would include an attempt to stop the fuel leak and tow the ship. They reported the U.S. Navy had offered assistance and said talks are ongoing to find a port willing to accept the ship. Reports have suggested the Rubymar flagged in Belize and linked to UK and Lebanese interests might be towed to Djibouti or Saudi Arabia.
The government of Yemen made statements on Monday saying it was working on the salvage. They said they would be willing to bring the ship to port. Yemeni Water and Environment Minister Tawfeeq Al-Sharjabi made the statement at a press conference in Aden according to the Saba state news agency. He expressed concerns over the environmental issues if the vessel is permitted to sink.
The Houthi leader, Muhammad Ali Al-Houthi, however, took to X (Twitter) writing on February 24, “It is possible to tow the sunken British ship in exchange for bringing relief trucks into Gaza. This is an offer that can be studied.”
Environmentalists are expressing concern citing the report from CENTCOM saying the cargo is 41,000 tons of fertilizer. They highlighted the 18-mile oil slick from the vessel while saying the fertilizer could spill into the Red Sea and worsen this environmental disaster. Earlier reports suggested the ship’s owner was hopeful to salvage the vessel and transfer the cargo to another vessel.
The ship appears to be in increasing danger while reports said salvage companies are concerned about attempting any efforts due to further threats from the Houthis. U.S. officials however have suggested a ceasefire might be put into place in Gaza to coincide with the start of Ramadan on March 10, assuming the vessel could stay afloat that many days without intervention.
Late yesterday, CENTCOM reported U.S. forces took out a range of weapons all ready to be launched following the larger U.S. and UK raids on Sunday. On Monday, U.S. forces destroyed three unmanned surface vessels (USV), two mobile anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM), and a one-way attack unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). In a followup on Tuesday, CENTCOM said that American and allied forces shot down another five UAVs over the Red Sea.
surer who will cover the war risk while the vessel is holding station off Yemen.
U.S. and UK Sanction Iranians, Houthis and "Dark Fleet" Tankers
The U.S. and UK listed individuals and tankers involved in the Iranian oil trade and for supporting the Houthi (file photo)
In a coordinated series of efforts, the United States and the United Kingdom each launched new sanctions against Iran and its commodities trade as well as for efforts supporting the Houthi militants in Yemen. The U.S. and UK jointly targeted the Houthi and their Iranian supporters while the U.S. also took action against two companies registered in Hong Kong and the Marshall Islands that own and operate a tanker used in the Iranian oil trade.
“Today’s action underscores our resolve to target efforts by the IRGC-QF (Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force) and the Houthis to evade U.S. sanctions and fund further attacks in the region,” said Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson. “As the Houthis persistently threaten the security of peaceful international commerce, the United States and the United Kingdom will continue to disrupt the funding streams that enable these destabilizing activities.”
The joint U.S.-UK action sanctioned two individuals and three organizations that were reported to be providing financial or military support to the Houthis. Among the individuals being listed is Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh, who since April 2021 has been reported to be the Deputy Commander of the IRGC Quds Force and responsible for multiple attacks as well as support for the Houthi. The UK also joined the U.S. which had previously listed Sa’id al-Jamal, an Iran-based financier who heads a network of front companies and vessels that generate revenue for the Houthis. Both countries also listed three units of Iran’s Quds Force.
The UK also listed Ali Hussein Badr Al Din Al-Houthi, the Houthi’s Undersecretary of the Interior and Commander of the security/police forces. The U.S. also designated Ibrahim al-Nashiri, a Houthi group member who supports the militant efforts.
As with the past efforts, the U.S. also singled out tankers involved in the Iranian oil trade. Today’s action listed the Artura, a crude oil tanker registered in Panama. Built in 1998, the vessel is 150,000 dwt and is reported to have been working for the network operated by Sa’id al-Jamal including operating ship-to-ship transfers and using multiple names including Sanan II. The U.S. traced the ship to a transfer to the Mehle (150,000 dwt) another tanker the U.S. sanctioned in January 2024. Cap Tees Shipping, the owner of the tanker, was also listed.
In a separate action, the U.S. also took action against companies in Hong Kong and the Marshall Islands that own and operate another tanker, the Panama-flagged Kohana (318,600 dwt). Built in 2003, the U.S. reports the tanker has been used to ship over $100 million in Iranian commodities to businesses in China.
The U.S. linked this tanker to operations orchestrated by Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL). The U.S. reports the vessel loaded a cargo for Iranian oil in late January 2024 and is on its way to China, where it intends to offload its cargo.
The UK’s Foreign Secretary David Cameron commented saying, “As I have made clear to the Iranian Foreign Minister, the regime bears responsibility for these attacks due to the extensive military support it has provided to the Houthis. All those who seek to undermine regional stability should know that the UK, alongside our allies, will not hesitate to act.”
To date, the UK reports it has more than 400 sanctions designations in place on Iranian individuals and entities, including those that seek to use malign influence regionally and internationally.
Fearing Long-Term Problems in Red Sea, Cruise Lines Change Plans
Virgin Voyages has canceled its entire 2024-2025 Australia cruise season, citing the problems in the Red Sea (Virgin Voyages)
The cruise industry is starting to rethink its plans into 2025 as increasingly they believe the problems in the Red Sea will persist. It is a view shared by the commercial shipping industry, but with travelers making vacation plans cruise lines need to think longer term to reduce disruption to their schedules and inconvenience to their passengers.
“Based on the regional and government advice we have received, we remain very concerned about potential escalations in the Red Sea over the next 12 months,” Richard Branson’s Virgin Voyages wrote in a new announcement. “This significant and ongoing conflict puts unacceptable risks for safe passage through the region for our sailors (passengers), crew, and vessel (Resilient Lady). As a result, we have been left with no choice but to cancel our 2024/25 voyage season plans for Resilient Lady.”
While the cruise industry is working on a longer time horizon to aid travelers in their planning, the underlying concern is shared broadly. Reuters reports that Maersk's head of North America, Charles van der Steene is advising the carrier’s customers, "Be prepared for the Red Sea situation to last into the second half of the year and build longer transit times into your supply chain planning."
Virgin Voyages highlights that it recently had to reroute the repositioning of the cruise ship Resilient Lady after its inaugural season in Australia. Based on the uncertainties, the cruise line has decided to entirely cancel its 2024/2025 season in Australia, impart because of the potential problems with the repositioning cruises that would transit the Red Sea. The Resilient Lady will now complete her Mediterranean sailing season on October 20, 2024, and divert course sailing to San Juan, Puerto Rico for a replacement Caribbean season for the 2024-2025 winter season.
“To say that we are disappointed to have come to this tough conclusion is an understatement,” says Virgin Voyages. “These adjustments are happening now in order to minimize potential future disruption to our passengers' holiday plans knowing there is a high likelihood that changes would need to happen in the future… We are currently working through options to return to Australia and the Asia Pacific region once regional repositioning opportunities become more tenable.”
Norwegian Cruise Line is taking a similar move writing to travelers with reservations and travel agents, “We have been monitoring the situation in the Red Sea and despite our best hopes that it would de-escalate, we have made the decision to alter published itineraries scheduled to transit through the region.”
The cruise line is canceling sailings for the Norwegian Dawn and the Norwegian Sky between October and December 2024. They appear to be planning to deadhead both ships into position in the Indian Ocean and Middle East reducing their published itineraries in November and December 2024.
MSC Cruises is also changing its 2024-2025 program for the cruise ship MSC Opera. Scheduled for the Red Sea and Middle East, the cruise ship will now spend the winter season in the Canary Islands. The cruise line announced it will be substituting a program of 7-night itineraries with six ports of call between November 2024 and March 2025.
Up to Four Subsea Cables Have Been Damaged Off Yemen
Just weeks after a warning about potential Houthi threats to subsea cables in the Red Sea, at least one fiber-optic line has been severed at a position off the coast of Yemen, and damage has been reported (but not confirmed) on three more.
Until last year, the Red Sea carried about one-eighth of the world's shipping traffic. Less known is its importance to the functioning of the global internet. 16 small fiber-optic lines under the Red Sea handle about 17 percent of all international data traffic, including trunk lines connecting Europe with India and East Asia. Some of these lines are in relatively shallow water depths of as little as 300 feet, where they could be accessible to divers.
The Houthi movement is well aware of this opportunity. Earlier this year, a Houthi social media account posted a map of these cables, along with a note that the density of telecom infrastructure made Yemen "strategic." The internationally-recognized government of Yemen issued a warning of the potential Houthi threat to these subsea assets earlier this month, and has reportedly discussed it with telecom operators in the past.
On Monday, Israeli news site Globes said that cables belonging to four major telecom networks - including the Asia-Africa-Europe 1 (AAE-1), TGN Atlantic, Europe India Gateway and the Seacom system - have been damaged in recent months.
Seacom has confirmed that its cable between Egypt and Kenya was severed on February 24, though the firm told Bloomberg that it is still too early to know if this was a deliberate attack.
Seacom warned that repairs could be delayed due to "instability in the area," and said that its team was working on a timeline for service restoration. The challenges will include finding a cable ship owner who is willing to operate within range of Houthi ballistic missiles, as well as an insurer who will cover the war risk while the vessel is holding station off Yemen
Houthi Red Sea Attacks Are Boon for Pirates as Ships Reroute
The Red Sea shipping crisis has forced ship operators to re-route.
Unfortunately, resurging attacks coming from notorious piracy hotspots have shipping companies worried about the new route.
It’s unlikely that surging piracy on African waters will persuade shipping companies to return to the Red Sea any time soon due to the even higher risk of facing Houthi attacks
Since November, Yemen's Houthi rebels have repeatedly attacked cargo ships passing through the strait of Bab al-Mandab that splits north-east Africa from Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula. The Iran-backed rebels have been targeting vessels with connections to Israel and Western countries, forcing dozens of shipping companies to take a 4,000-mile detour around the continent of Africa at significantly higher costs and extra shipping days.
Unfortunately, resurging attacks coming from notorious piracy hotspots have shipping companies worried about the new route. Arsenio Dominguez, secretary-general of the International Maritime Organization, has warned shipping companies to be on high alert for piracy after vessel seizures in the Gulf of Guinea and off the Somali coast.
Dominguez has urged companies to return to the stringent security levels of the previous piracy crisis, “They need to be more in line with how they were back in 2008 to 2012 off Somalia. We’re having conversations to create awareness surrounding the Gulf of Guinea . . . with the increased traffic in the region, we should avoid new escalation or increased incidents of piracy,’’ he said.
One vessel hijacked in December remains off the Somali coast, while pirates briefly seized another bulk carrier the following month before it was freed by the Indian navy.
On Friday, Houthi rebels attacked and set ablaze a cargo ship traveling through the Gulf of Aden. Last month, a tanker’s crew was kidnapped off Equatorial Guinea by pirates. On February 19, the crew of a dry bulk carrier sailing on Somali waters was forced to abandon ship after a missile attack. The ship’s Beirut-based owner says the vessel was listing and in danger of sinking. However, the shipping company is working with a salvage company to have the ship towed to Djibouti. Related: Red Sea Chaos To Have Limited Effect On LNG Prices
The Gulf of Guinea and Somalia’s Gulf of Aden were once considered some of the most dangerous piracy zones for oil companies and other seafarers with a wave of piracy peaking in 2018. What makes these places particularly vulnerable is a lack of sufficient equipment and manpower as well as the fact that attacks are mainly staged far off coastlines beyond countries' territorial jurisdictions. Further, the Gulf of Guinea is rich in oil and gas as well as a relatively well-trained militia that has honed its skills fighting in the Delta's secessionist movement. In the past, pirates operating in the Gulf of Guinea have targeted human capital instead of hijacking ships.
The Gulf of Mexico remains another piracy blackspot due to its abundant oil and gas resources, although pirates there are mostly associated with local crime groups rather than cartels and prefer stealing valuable equipment and materials instead of targeting tankers and larger vessels.
Thankfully, the African menace was largely eliminated by the adoption of on-board security measures, including traveling with armed guards. Some coastal states have also adopted more rigorous anti-piracy action.
Western, Israeli-Linked Ships Paying 50% Extra Insurance Premiums
It’s unlikely that surging piracy on African waters will persuade shipping companies to return to the Red Sea any time soon due to the even higher risk of facing Houthi attacks coupled with exorbitant insurance premiums being levied on ships plying the Red Sea.Underwriters have started charging ships linked to U.S, British and Israeli companies as much as 50% extra in war risk premiums to navigate the Red Sea due to the persistent threat of attacks. The war risk premiums for Red Sea voyages now hover at ~1% of the value of a ship, up from around 0.7% previously, with additional costs translating into hundreds of thousands of dollars for a seven-day voyage.
“The ships that have so far had problems, almost all of them have some element of Israeli or U.S. or U.K. ownership in there somewhere,” Marcus Baker, global head of marine and cargo with Marsh, has told Business Insurance.
The Yemeni rebels have been relentless with attacks on commercial ships despite counterstrikes by the U.S. and British navies, and have vowed to continue doing so. “The Houthis persist in upholding their religious, moral, and humanitarian duties towards the Palestinian people and in defense of their beloved Yemen in the face of American-British aggression. Military operations will not stop unless the aggression stops and the siege on the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip is lifted,’’ Houthi Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree said in a pre-recorded statement on Thursday
Simulated Star Collision Leads to Breakthrough in Nuclear Waste Treatment
The study presents a novel technique to quantify nuclear transmutation accurately, aiming to enhance the stability of radioactive waste and improve nuclear waste treatment facilities.
Inspired by recent observations of gravitational waves from neutron star mergers, researchers focus on understanding neutron interactions with elements like selenium, a common nuclear waste product, to predict transmutation rates.
The research not only advances nuclear safety but also establishes a bidirectional relationship between nuclear science and astrophysics, offering insights into the creation of elements in stars and impacting both fields.ur Community
Nuclear power is considered one of the ways to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, but how to deal with nuclear waste products is a concern. Radioactive waste products can be turned into more stable elements, but this process is not yet viable at scale.
The very word “nuclear” can be a bit of a trigger for some people, understandably so in Japan, where the atomic bomb and Fukushima disaster are some of the pivotal moments in its modern history. Yet, given the relative scarcity of suitable space in Japan for renewable forms of energy like solar or wind, nuclear power is considered to be a critical part of the effort to decarbonize the energy sector. Because of this, researchers are hard at work trying to improve safety, efficiency and other matters relating to nuclear power.
Associate Professor Nobuaki Imai from the Center for Nuclear Study at the University of Tokyo and his colleagues think they can contribute to improving a key aspect of nuclear power, the processing of waste.
“Broadly speaking, nuclear power works by boiling water using self-sustaining nuclear decay reactions. Unstable elements break apart and decay, releasing heat, which boils water, driving turbines. But this process eventually leaves behind unusable waste that is still radioactive,” said Imai. “This waste can remain radioactive for hundreds of thousands of years, so it is usually buried deep underground. But there is a growing desire to explore another way, a way in which unstable radioactive waste can be made more stable, avoiding its radioactive decay and rendering it far safer to deal with. It’s called transmutation.”
Transmutation is like the opposite of nuclear decay; instead of an element breaking apart and releasing radiation, a neutron can be added to an unstable element changing it into a slightly heavier version of itself.
Depending on the initial substance, this new form can be stable enough to be considered safe.
The problem is, though this process has been generally known for some time, it has been impossible to quantify sufficiently accurately to carry the idea on to the next stage and ideally produce prototype new-generation waste management facilities.
“The idea actually came from a surprising source: colliding stars, specifically neutron stars,” said Imai. “Following recent observations of gravitational waves emanating from neutron star mergers, researchers have been able to better understand the ways neutrons interact and their ability to modify other elements. Based on this, we used a range of instruments to narrow our focus on how the element selenium, a common nuclear waste product, behaves when bombarded by neutrons. Our technique allows us to predict how materials absorb neutrons and undergo transmutation. This knowledge can contribute to designs for nuclear waste transmutation facilities.”
It’s difficult for researchers to make these kinds of observations; in fact, they are not able to directly observe acts of transmutation.
Rather, the team can observe how much of a sample does not transmute, and by taking readings to know that transmutation did in fact take place, they can estimate, albeit very accurately, how much of the sample did transmute.
“We are confident that our measurements accurately reflect the real rate of transmutation of unstable selenium into a more stable form,” said Imai. “We are now planning to measure this for other nuclear waste products. Hopefully, this knowledge will combine with other areas required to realize nuclear waste treatment facilities, and we might see these in the coming decades. Though our aims are to improve nuclear safety, I find it interesting that there is a bidirectional relationship between this research and astrophysics. We were inspired by colliding neutron stars, and our research can impact how astrophysicists look for signs of nuclear synthesis, the creation of elements in stars, to better understand how elements heavier than iron were made, including those essential for life.”
**
This is the most welcome kind of news. While the press release notices the source and interesting fact that this research has taken place in Japan, your humble writer would like to notice that again. It’s because the folks of Japan have the most concerns about the effects of radioactivity and are as certain as anyone, anywhere on the planet to need to produce the nation’s own energy.
It’s a very difficult situation. but the prime advantage is – facing the circumstances head on. That has a commanding train of thought. The nation has little time or gives much attention to wasteful ideas, intermittent sources or emotional or political or rent seeking driven concepts. For Japan energy sources have to work 100% of the time at low cost and in great quantity.
They have nailed the obvious. Nuclear power. In spite of the history and experiences. It’s a certainty, if anyone can, the nation of Japan can make nuclear power the best choice possible.
Norway's recent approval of deep-sea mining sets a precedent for other nations, as they seek to access critical minerals necessary for renewable energy technologies.
While environmentalists and scientists oppose deep-sea mining due to potential ecological damage, the growing demand for critical minerals is driving interest and exploration in this sector.
The International Seabed Authority is expected to resume talks on deep-sea mining regulations, with concerns over environmental impact and calls for a pause on mining activities from various countries and major corporations.
Just a month after Norway approved the world’s first deep-sea mineral mining, a UN regulator has stated that he thinks the international practice of deep-sea mining is likely inevitable. There is growing interest in commercial deep-sea mining for critical metals and minerals to support an accelerated global green transition. However, there is also widespread opposition due to fears of the environmental impact of these types of activities, which could hinder efforts to tackle climate change.
At the beginning of the year, Norway became the first country to approve the practice of deep-sea mining for critical minerals. There has been a growing international discussion around the potential for deep-sea mining to extract metals and minerals needed to grow the world’s renewable energy capacity and help develop clean technologies. However, there has been widespread opposition to these types of mining activities from environmentalists and scientists who say we do not yet understand the potential impact of deep-sea mining well enough for it to be deemed safe. Many worry that the environmental impact of deep-sea mining could undermine the efforts of developing the world’s renewable energy capacity to tackle climate change.
In January, the Norwegian parliament voted in favour of opening its waters for commercial-scale deep-sea mining to support a global shift away from fossil fuels to renewable alternatives. It also believes that deep-sea mining could be less harmful to the environment than land-based mining, the widespread practice currently used to extract metals and minerals. There is an abundance of potato-sized nodules of critical minerals, including cobalt, nickel, copper, and manganese, sitting on the bottom of the seafloor that Norway, and many other world powers, want to access through deep-sea mining to meet the growing demand for critical minerals from the green energy sector. However, Norway will not immediately commence mining operations. The government will instead assess proposals from mining companies on a case-by-case basis for license approval.
This month, Michael Lodge, the head of the International Seabed Authority, the U.N. regulator that oversees deep-sea mining, said that he believes it is only a matter of time until deep-sea mining activities take place. Lodge is seeing renewed global interest in deep-sea mining as a means of accelerating the global green transition. Governments and regulators worldwide have been exploring ways to meet the growing demand for critical metals and minerals, for fear that demand will outstrip supply if we cannot access alternative mineral deposits.
Lodge explained, “One of the main drivers of industrial interest is the potential to produce larger quantities of minerals at equivalent or lower cost to what can be produced on land.” He added, “That’s the commercial driver and certainly there is vast resource potential in seabed minerals. The question is whether they can in the end be produced economically. “But the resource potential is absolutely there. This is clear. The technology is advanced, so it seems like it is possible. And at the same time, it is very clear also that demand for minerals is increasing exponentially and is only going to continue to increase.”
The ISA is scheduled to recommence talks on deep-sea mining in Kingston, Jamaica, in March. If successful, this could lead to the development of a regulatory framework for deep-sea mining on a commercial scale. The ISA regulates mining across an area covering 54 percent of the world’s oceans, representing 68 member states as well as the EU, but not the U.S. The ISA Council has previously stated its intention to develop deep-sea mining regulations by 2025. However, 24 countries around the globe have called for a pause on these types of activities, supported by several major companies, such as Google, Samsung, and Volvo. Deep-sea mining requires the use of heavy machinery to remove metals and minerals from the ocean floor. There is a fear that commencing deep-sea mining operations before fully understanding the potential impact on the sea bed could lead to permanent harm to marine life and ecosystems.
Nevertheless, Lodge believes it is only a matter of time until deep-sea mining activities are approved. He said, “Clearly now, we are reaching a very high level of interest so I would say that yes it seems to be inevitable.” Lodge added, “Whether that takes place in international waters, or in national waters, whether that be Norway or another country, that’s impossible to say. It depends in part upon the terms and conditions I suppose.” He emphasised the unsustainability of the current situation, with a few state powers dominating the mineral and metal mining industry – such as China and Russia, and suggested that deep-sea mining could create greater competition in the industry and provide the stable supply of resources needed to support a global green transition.
By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com
South African billionaire Wiese returns to his diamond-hunting roots
Christo Wiese, South Africa’s billionaire retail king, is going back to the future.
The 82-year-old serial investor, who steered the expansion of both Africa’s biggest clothing retailer and the continent’s largest grocer, has dived into something that harkens back to the start of his storied career nearly half a century ago: diamonds.
“I’ve always been fascinated by diamonds because it’s that amazing industry where you plod along and then one day stumble on a big stone that can change your whole life,” Wiese said over lunch at the summer-green vineyards of Beau Constantia, a wine farm in Cape Town. “This stretch of the Atlantic Ocean produces some of the world’s highest-quality diamonds.”
The theory goes that the more than 2.5 billion-year-old Kaapvaal Craton and shifting continental plates transported diamond-bearing detritus down South Africa’s Orange River to the south-western coast of the continent. It is here that Wiese dreams of finding a “big one,” leading the self-made tycoon over the last few years to spend at least some of his eight-hour work days on his mining business, which he says has already turned up a $10 million pink diamond.
Trans Hex Group Ltd., the mining unit Wiese owns with his son-in-law, plans over time to hunt for other sought-after minerals and metals like phosphate, lithium, gold and platinum. It has four large ships fitted with equipment that can look for these treasures by vacuuming up gravel from the ocean floor that’s processed on board before the tailings are tossed back into the sea. A state-of-the-art diamond recovery vessel can cost as much as $420 million.
The magnate, whose net worth is $1.2 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index — down from $7 billion after he lost a sizable chunk of his fortune with the 2017 implosion of the furniture stores chain Steinhoff International Holdings NV — knows what he’s venturing into.
Wiese first got into alluvial diamonds in 1976 when he bought a mine along the Orange River. It was the country’s biggest behind those held by Anglo American-owned De Beers, the world’s top diamond producer, which also mines along Namibian waters.
It was “a very exciting proposition,” Wiese said of his first enterprise. He sold it about five years later because he wanted funds to buy control of the clothing chain Pepkor, which became his biggest asset.
Industry observers say Wiese’s revived passion for diamond mining may be riskier than any of the bets he’s made in the retail sector, and that it shows he has not lost his appetite for adventure even after being badly burned by his investment in Steinhoff.
“South African mining is made up of pioneers, but this type of mining is not easy and gives patchy profits at best,” said David Shapiro, who has 52 years of experience on Johannesburg’s stock exchange and is chief global equity strategist at Sasfin Securities. “He’s got enough money to do what he needs to do, so perhaps he’s willing to dabble in riskier ventures.”
Born the son of a sheep and cattle farmer in the remote, desert-like northern city of Upington, Wiese obtained a law degree from Stellenbosch University in 1967, after which he joined Pep — founded two years earlier with a single store in a rural railway town. He left the business briefly to practice law, and unsuccessfully stood for parliament for the Progressive Federal Party.
Turning his focus back to Pep, he became the biggest shareholder and chairman of the company in 1981, renamed it Pepkor, and helped oversee an aggressive expansion drive. Pepkor bought retail chains Smart Group Holdings, Cashbuild, Checkers and Stuttafords in 1991 and made its first offshore foray that year, opening a Your More Store outlet in Scotland.
Wiese spent three and a half decades building Pepkor into a formidable business with operations across Africa and Europe, and spun off and expanded Shoprite Holdings Ltd. to become the continent’s biggest grocer. Shoprite remains his star investment.
In 2014, he exchanged his $2.5 billion Pepkor stake for stock in Steinhoff. Three years later, auditors refused to sign off on Steinhoff’s accounts after uncovering financial irregularities, and its share price tumbled by about 90%. It later emerged that its management had vastly inflated profits. Wiese denied any knowledge of the malfeasance.
A sprightly octogenarian, Wiese keeps up with a wide range of his interests. While deeply involved in the nitty gritty of the retail business, he’s known to be able to jump into everything from a discussion on enabling more South Africans to own land, or the significance of a book he’s reading or even why Europe’s loss of community-style living hurts its economies.
The entrepreneur still drives his Lexus Landcruiser from his house in Clifton, the beach-front strip in Cape Town, to his office, from where he oversees his various businesses. These include gym chain Virgin Active and South African food maker Premier Group Ltd. He’s also recently invested in a medical malpractice insurance company.
Even with an established family office, Wiese says he has no plans to retire. He wants to continue working and to remain active, with his two resolutions for 2024 being to visit his 4,000-hectare (9,884-acre) Lourensford Wine Estate near Cape Town once a month and travel to his private wildlife reserve in the Kalahari desert more than a handful of times this year, he said.
“Many people think I’m crazy to still come and sit in the office every day,” he said. “But I think, while you’re alive, be active, be part of life. And I enjoy it, even when we sit here sometimes really struggling with challenges.”
These include operating in a country with the gross domestic product growing less than 1%, inflation at 5.1% and unemployment at almost 32%.
Wiese, like most South Africans, is closely watching the country’s politics as it gears up this year for what is expected to be its most significant election since the end of Apartheid 30 years ago. He expects the ruling African National Congress to be more heavily challenged than it has been since it started ruling over the newly democratic nation in 1994.
This would be “a good change,” he said, adding that for all South Africa’s problems, there is nowhere else he’d rather live. All three of his children live near him.
Still, the country’s economic travails have placed a ceiling on the revenue growth of the retailers he owns — a limitation those companies are seeking to mitigate by claiming a bigger share of the local market through greater digitization. Wiese says that Shoprite is almost becoming a “digital business that has a grocery store attached.” The company’s Checkers Sixty60 was South Africa’s first one-hour grocery delivery app and makes up more than three quarters of the country’s on-demand delivery spend on such products.
The marine diamond mining business has provided some further diversification — albeit not without its own risks. Prices of the gems have been cut this year as suppliers try to revive sales, while production costs remain high. Beside the expensive vessels, offshore miners apply for concession areas that are usually hundreds of square kilometers and they need specialized crew who stay on board for weeks at a time.
There’s also opposition from scientists with environmental concerns. The impact of ship-based mining remains largely unknown and “without dedicated monitoring and ecological impact assessment, it is very difficult to detect the effects on the marine environment,” Iona Blair wrote in a paper published by University of Cape Town. A lot of people along Namibia and South Africa’s west coast make a living from fishing.
Norway’s recent decision to allow seabed mining exploration in its waters caused a call for a pause on such activities until regulations for mining in international waters are established.
Compared to Norway, however, the work Trans Hex does is in relatively shallow waters. Scientists contracted by Trans Hex concluded that some disturbance of the ocean floor, that has been untouched for millions of years, does not harm. The company also employs a few hundred people and brings in foreign currency through diamond sales, Wiese said.
“We think that on balance it’s a positive,” he said.
(By Janice Kew)
Oil and gas upstream M&A deal value hits highest Q1 levels since 2017
Reuters | February 27, 2024 Oil Platform in the Pacific Ocean. Stock image.
An ongoing consolidation in the US shale industry has driven up global M&A deal value in the oil and gas exploration sector to its highest first-quarter level in seven years, industry experts said.
Deals worth more than $55 billion have been announced in the first two months of 2024, according to analytics firm Enverus, as publicly traded companies take advantage of their high share price to gobble up smaller firms.
Some of the major deals include Diamondback Energy’s $26 billion offer to acquire Endeavor Energy Partners earlier this month and APA Corp agreeing to buy Callon Petroleum for $4.5 billion in January.
The total value of deals in January and February has already hit the highest level since the first quarter of 2017 when $68 billion worth of deals were announced, and is also more than double that announced in the first quarter of 2023.
Deals involving US shale firms represented more than 80% of the total value, Enverus said.
“With another estimated $55 billion worth of assets up for sale in the US shale, we expect this shale domination in overall M&A activity to continue,” said Palash Ravi, Rystad Energy senior M&A analyst.
An uptick in international M&A activity has also helped boost overall deal value.
European majors have driven much of the activity, representing 66% of the overall international M&A deal value so far in 2024, as per Rystad Energy data.
Industry experts also expect some consolidation in the US shale gas sector in 2024, following a period of muted activity due to a drop in Henry Hub prices.
“Future gas M&A is likely to be driven by outside buyers that lack exposure to US shale gas assets or cases where there are large in-basin synergies to capture,” said Andrew Dittmar, a senior vice president at Enverus.
