OIL NEWS

Trudeau's pipeline project increases cost estimate by $3.1 billion

Robert Tuttle, Bloomberg News

The expansion of the Trans Mountain oil pipeline will cost about $3.1 billion more than the Canadian government-owned company running the project projected in May, another financial setback for a project beset by spiralling expenses and years of delays.

Costs for the expansion — which involves twinning a pipeline stretching from Edmonton to Vancouver — will be 10 per cent more than the most recent estimate of $30.9 billion, the company said in a filing with the Canada Energy Regulator on Monday.

That brings the total cost to about $34 billion, more than six times the original estimate of $5.4 billion in 2013.

The latest cost increase — this time due to construction challenges that are delaying the new line’s startup into the second quarter — marks another setback for a project that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has expended significant political capital on.

Trudeau’s government bought the line to save the expansion project from cancellation and give Canada’s oil producers a way to sell their crude to markets in Asia, boosting prices and lessening their dependence on the U.S.

The pandemic, years of labour shortages and technical challenges have caused the project’s costs to soar and required increasing government funds.

The government’s ownership of the pipeline has also dented the Liberal prime minister’s standing among environmentalists while winning him little support in the conservative oil-producing province of Alberta.

Trans Mountain pipeline seen driving 

Canadian oil to three-year high

Robert Tuttle, Bloomberg News

Canada’s relatively cheap heavy crude is set to spike temporarily in the coming months as a massive new export pipeline starts operations just as oil-sands companies curtail production.

Western Canadian Select’s discount to U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate may shrink from its current level of about US$17.10 per barrel to less than $10 a barrel between May and July, according to Jeremy Irwin, senior oil markets analyst at Energy Aspects. The last time the discount was in single digits was in April 2021.

The pricier crude would raise costs for refiners in the U.S. Midwest who rely heavily on Canadian oil and have long benefited from the discounts it has sold at, partly because of a lack of pipelines. Those swelling costs may be partly passed onto U.S. Midwestern drivers as higher gasoline prices.

Driving the potential gain for Canadian crude is the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline, which will add the capacity to ship an additional 590,000 barrels of oil a day from Alberta to a Pacific Coast port and reduce producers’ reliance on American refiners. At the same time as the pipeline is due to start up in the second quarter, major oil-sands companies including Imperial Oil Ltd., Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and Suncor Energy Inc. are planning to reduce output as they perform maintenance work on their facilities

Longer term, the discount on Canadian crude may return to normal levels or even widen. S&P Global estimates that Alberta oil producers are poised to add 500,000 barrels a day of supply by the end of next year, which will take up almost all of the new capacity on Trans Mountain. Filling up the line leaves the province’s drillers at risk of the pipeline shortages that have bedeviled them for years

Energy Aspects had warned of the potential overlap of oil-sands maintenance and Trans Mountain’s startup in a November report. Over the long term after the Trans Mountain startup, Canadian crude’s discount may average about $12 a barrel, Irwin said.

Canada sent 3.14 million barrels of oil to the U.S. Midwest in November, accounting for almost half of the U.S.’s crude imports, according to the Energy Information Administration

Feb. 26, 2024.

The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion: Who wins, who loses and how did we get here?

More than a decade in the making, the $30-billion project could be a game-changer for Canadian oil

Author of the article: Naimul Karim
Published Feb 26, 2024 
Pipes for the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion are unloaded in Edson, Alta last year. PHOTO BY JASON FRANSON /The Canadian Press
Article content

The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project may still be months away from completion, but industry insiders have already started speculating on how it will impact the oil sector, from a potential increase in the price of Canadian oil to the opening of new export markets.

The expansion project will twin the existing 1,150-kilometre Trans Mountain pipeline between Alberta and British Columbia and enhance the system’s export facilities. The original pipeline was built in 1953 and has the capacity to transfer about 300,000 barrels per day. The new pipeline will be able to deliver an additional 590,000 barrels per day

But as we near the end of construction on the government-owned project that has been more than a decade in the making, plenty of questions remain about what lies ahead.


How we got here

Houston-based Kinder Morgan Inc. first proposed expanding the Trans Mountain pipeline in 2012. Its goal was to begin construction in 2017 and start a new flow of oil in 2019.

But the move was opposed by environmentalists who pointed out the existing pipeline had a history of spills. There have been 84 spills reported since 1961. While 70 per cent of them occurred at pump stations or terminals, 30 per cent occurred along the pipeline, with 20 incidents linked to the release of crude oil from the pipeline.

Kinder Morgan in 2017 threatened to cancel the project due to opposition from the British Columbia’s NDP government. Shortly after, the company sold the pipeline and the expansion project to the Government of Canada for $4.5 billion. The cost of the project has since increased to about $30.9 billion.

It's ridiculous to have this pipeline costing $31 billion — that is obscene

TRISTAN GOODMAN, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OF THE EXPLORERS AND PRODUCERS ASSOCIATION OF CANADA

Trans Mountain Corp., the government-owned company that’s expanding the pipeline, attributed the rise in price to several reasons, including inflationary pressures, the catastrophic floods in British Columbia, agreements with Indigenous communities, route changes to avoid environmentally sensitive areas, wildfires and labour shortages

The company also had to spend additional money on cultural protection as it discovered 83,000 artifacts, which have been returned to First Nations groups, during the construction process.

Tristan Goodman, chief executive of the Explorers and Producers Association of Canada, a national lobby group representing oil and gas entrepreneurs, said the rising cost of the pipeline is due to the government’s “failed” regulatory framework for environment, energy and natural resources projects. He said the entire system needs to be looked at.

“The government’s intentions are right to have good oversight, but they haven’t figured out how to get that oversight to be efficient and cost effective,” he said. “It is ridiculous to have this pipeline costing $31 billion — that is obscene.

The expansion project is now more than 98 per cent complete and is expected to begin operating in the second quarter.

Benefits of another pipeline

The main goal of the pipeline is to ensure Canadian oil producers get better prices for their product. The price of crude oil depends upon its quality, transportation costs and market forces. Heavy crudes are sold at a lower price because they are harder to refine and yield a lower amount of gasoline and diesel. Canada mostly produces heavy crude oil from Alberta and Saskatchewan.

The price also depends upon the distance between the producer and consumers. The greater the distance, the less producers receive for their products. It’s also cheaper to deliver oil through pipelines than trains.

It would cost about US$9 to US$10 to transport oil from Alberta to the U.S. Gulf Coast through pipelines, according to BMO Capital Markets analyst Randy Ollenberger, and about US$17 by rail. He expects the price differential between Canadian and U.S. oil to more or less reflect the transportation cost between the two markets and drop to around US$10 to US$12 per barrel from US$19 after the pipeline starts.

The new pipeline is also expected to allow Canadian producers to deliver oil to new markets, including the U.S. West Coast and Asia since the system will have better export facilities, such as ports.

For example, Ollenberger said that if a Canadian producer wanted to export oil to California, it would have to move the barrels by rail since there are no connecting pipelines. California imports heavy oil from other countries further away through tankers. Because of the new facilities being built to accommodate the Trans Mountain pipeline, Canada will be able to export barrels from the west coast using tankers, which will lower the transportation cost.

It’s a similar situation with China. Canada exports about 150,000 barrels a day to China, he said, but they depart from the U.S. Gulf Coast via tankers.

“When the pipeline comes into service, we can send it directly from the west coast,” Ollenberger said.

The additional pipeline is also expected to give Canadian oil producers more options for refiners at the other end of the pipeline.

“If refiners know you are trapped into one pipeline, they can discount because they have other options to go to at the bottom of that line,” Goodman said. “Whereas if the producer is given another access point, they can pick up the product and say, ‘I am not going to put it through this line, I am going to put it in this new line.’ That forces competition.”

Likely winners and losers?

Enough producers have already committed to use the new pipeline to take up about 80 per cent of the planned capacity. These companies include Cenovus Energy Inc., Imperial Oil Ltd. and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., according to Trans Mountain. The remaining capacity can be used on a spot basis.

Imperial Oil is a minor player in terms of the pipeline reservations it has made, chief executive Brad Corson said on a conference call in February. But, overall, he said the pipeline will have a positive impact on the industry and reduce the discount in the oil prices Canadian producers receive.

He said Imperial Oil will continue to ship crude to its usual destinations, but the new pipeline could provide it with options to ship west or south.

Cenovus has a larger capacity on the pipeline. The company on a conference call last year said the pipeline would be a “great tool” to enter new markets globally, but it expects the start-up process to be a “little bumpy” out of the gate.

There have also been talks about how the Trans Mountain pipeline might negatively affect Enbridge Inc. since it runs its own pipeline — the biggest in Canada — to transport petroleum products. However, the company in February rejected those claims, saying that oil production has been on the rise and will continue to increase.

“This notion that the Mainline is going to lose a bunch of volume when TMX (Trans Mountain pipeline expansion) comes in is a bit of a stale concept,” Colin Gruending, the company’s head of liquids pipelines, said. “It might have been valid a few years ago, but it’s been delayed materially. And in that multiyear period of delay, supply has structurally and permanently grown.”

Ollenberger said companies don’t necessarily have to be a contractual partner of the Trans Mountain pipeline to benefit from its expansion since they may be able to sell their oil at a higher price to other markets through other pipelines, such as the one run by Enbridge.

“The benefit really is for the industry overall,” he said. “It allows the industry to receive a better price for its product and to grow.”

In anticipation of those better prices, the industry has already started to pump more oil. So much so that Goodman expects the new pipeline to be saturated within a year or two instead of five or six years as initially assumed.


• Email: nkarim@postmedia.com

Canadian oil and gas producers bump up spending, industry group says

in Oil & Companies News 28/02/2024

Canadian oil and natural gas producers will spend an estimated C$40.6 billion ($30.07 billion) on capital projects this year, up slightly from C$39 billion last year, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) said on Tuesday.

Producers are staying disciplined with spending even as Canadian oil production is at record-high levels ahead of the expected completion of the Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion in the second quarter, CAPP CEO Lisa Baiton said.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT

Canada, the fourth-largest global oil producer, has steadily raised production to take advantage of expanding pipeline capacity even as OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance have implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support prices.

Canada’s congested oil pipelines and lack of export capacity for liquefied natural gas (LNG) have long limited expansion of crude and gas production. The Canadian government-owned Trans Mountain expansion has been dogged by cost over-runs and construction problems , but will nearly triple the flow of oil on that pipeline from Alberta to the Pacific coast, where it can be shipped to refineries on the U.S. West Coast and in Asia.

Shell-led LNG Canada is finishing work on the country’s first major LNG export facility, which will boost demand for Canada’s gas when it starts operation, possibly within the next year.

KEY QUOTE

“Despite these positive trends there remains a sense of caution largely due to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding proposed emissions policy in Canada,” Baiton said.

BY THE NUMBERS

CAPP estimates conventional oil and gas capital spending at C$27.3 billion in 2024, with oil sands spending pegged at C$13.3 billion.

Spending in Alberta, Canada’s main oil producing province, looks to remain steady at C$29 billion, with small increases expected in Saskatchewan, British Columbia and Newfoundland and Labrador, CAPP said.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Rod Nickel in Vancouver, British Columbia; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

CAPP projects slight increase in Canadian oil and gas capital spending in 2024

The industry group representing Canada's oil and gas producers says capital investment in the sector will edge slightly higher in 2024.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers is forecasting capital expenditures for the upstream oil and natural gas sector will reach $40.6 billion this year, a small increase from the $39 billion invested by companies in 2023.

CAPP president and CEO Lisa Baiton says the sector is optimistic in anticipation of the expected completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, which has led Canadian oil producers to boost their output to record levels.

But she says companies are also feeling cautious in light of what she describes as ongoing uncertainty surrounding emissions policy in Canada.

In Alberta specifically, CAPP is forecasting oil and gas producers to maintain a steady investment level year over year at $29 billion, with the oilsands expected to contribute around $13.3 billion of that.

While a consortium of oilsands companies known as the Pathways Alliance have proposed spending $16.5 billion on a massive carbon capture and storage network to reduce emissions from oilsands sites in northern Alberta, they have not yet pulled the trigger with a final investment decision.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 27, 2024.

Crude-by-rail shipments jumped in last half of 2023 as Alberta's oil output grows

Canadian crude-by-rail shipments nearly doubled in volume in the last six months of 2023, as oil output from Alberta surged to all-time highs and the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion remained under construction.

Data from the Canada Energy Regulator released Monday shows oil-by-rail export volumes jumped from 78,747 barrels per day in May of last year to a high of 167,006 in November.

Though they then declined six per cent to 157,142 in December, that was still 25 per cent higher than the country's crude-by-rail shipments in December 2022.

For the full year, Canadian crude-by-rail exports averaged 119,077 barrels per day, a seven-year low and down 17 per cent from 2022.

But the sharp uptick in the last half of the year shows the impact of surging oil output in Alberta that has filled Canada's oil export pipelines close to capacity.

Last year, Alberta’s crude oil production hit an all-time record, totalling just under 1.4 billion barrels last year or about 3.73 million barrels per day.

The increase came as oilsands companies have been ramping up to prepare for the opening of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, which will add an additional 590,000 barrels per day of export capacity for this country's energy industry.

When the Trans Mountain project does come online and begins to fill with oil, the recent increase in crude-by-rail shipments should reverse, said BMO Capital Markets analyst Ben Pham in a recent report. 

"For the first time in over a decade, the (Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin) will have excess crude takeaway capacity," Pham wrote, noting BMO expects Western Canadian crude oil supply to increase from 5 million barrels per day in 2023 to 5.3 million in 2025 and 5.6 million in 2030.

In addition to allowing Canadian producers to grow production, the addition of the Trans Mountain expansion is expected to improve the price they receive for their product. The Western Canada Select differential, a discount Canadian oil companies typically have to absorb in part due to a lack of export capacity, is expected to narrow when the new pipeline starts up.

But Trans Mountain Corp., the company building the pipeline expansion, recently pushed the pipeline's in-service date back from the first quarter to the second quarter of this year due to unexpected construction difficulties in B.C. 

Eight Capital analyst Phil Skolnick said in a note to clients Monday that the project must be completed soon or Canadian producers will take a hit to their bottom line.

"Estimated growth in Western Canada will require (Trans Mountain) start-up by Q3/24 in order to prevent differentials blowing out, in our view, as we see exportable volumes exceeding current pipeline export capacity at that time," Skolnick wrote.

He added that even with the addition of the Trans Mountain expansion, Canada's oil output is growing so quickly that exportable supply could exceed pipeline capacity as early as 2026.

"This puts the country's producers in a vicarious situation as the (Trans Mountain) project took over a decade to complete, raising doubt of another major export pipeline ever being constructed," he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 26, 2024.

Oil industry faces a 'sentiment problem': Nuttall

Jordan Fleguel, BNN Bloomberg

A Canadian portfolio manager says he remains bullish on the global oil industry despite signs of a demand slowdown.

Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, told BNN Bloomberg that he believes certain organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) are underestimating the demand for oil in 2024.

“(The IEA) is very, very pessimistic on demand,” he said, adding that there was a consensus among those he spoke with during a recent energy-focused trip to Saudi Arabia that the organization has become overly politicized.

“I think there's concern that too many people are listening to an organization that no longer serves its original purpose.”

• Top commodities headlines, all in one place

Nuttall said that OPEC has a better track record of accurately predicting oil demand. The organization forecasts demand of 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024, compared to the IEA’s 1.2 million barrels per day.

Nuttall said that he sees the market being “infatuated” with narratives about slowing demand and faltering OPEC cohesion, but that after his trip to Saudi Arabia he believes those narratives remain false.

“I think we suffer from a sentiment problem, not a fundamental problem,” he said.

Canada’s energy outlook

Nuttall said that his recent trip also reinforced his view that other resource-rich countries like Saudi Arabia are approaching the clean energy transition much more effectively than Canada is.

• The information you need to know, sent directly to you: Download the BNN Bloomberg App

“They're getting it right and we're getting it wrong. In Canada, we think we're going to solve the climate crisis by taxing farmers who use natural gas to dry their crops,” he said.

“(Saudi Arabia) is promoting oil and natural gas production knowing that the demand will be there for decades ahead and leveraging the resource that offers to then invest in technologies such as carbon capture… it's just a much smarter approach that they're taking.”

NFeb. 26, 2024.uttall said oil’s strong fundamentals have set up Canadian energy stocks for success this year, and added that recent M&A activity in the space is mainly a “function of poor sentiment.”

“Companies must get bigger to gain relevance to the ideas list of the generalist investor that is only going to own two or three names, and so we're seeing that consolidation further,” he said.

Feb. 26, 2024.

WW3.0

Macron's musings about ground troops send Ukraine's allies running for cover

The French president may have been trying to signal resolve — If so, he failed

Murray Brewster · CBC News · Posted: Feb 28, 2024 

French President Emmanuel Macron's comments about sending ground troops into Ukraine triggered low-level panic among NATO allies. What was he thinking? (Daniel Leal/AFP/Getty Images)

If it were any other time — and if the stakes weren't so high — the swift international slapdown that followed French President Emmanuel Macron's recent comments on Ukraine might have been funny.

On Monday, Macron refused to rule out sending ground troops to Ukraine. The words were barely out of his mouth before startled allies and leaders around the globe started to wind them back, pour cold water on them and even refute them outright.

The speed with which nations lined up to have a crack at Macron was jaw-dropping. It was left to France's defence minister, Sébastien Lecornu, to reframe what his boss had said by referring to discussions among allies about sending soldiers to carry out demining and military training in Ukraine — well away from the front lines.

"It's not sending troops to wage war against Russia," Lecornu said.

As if that would please Moscow any better.

The idea of dispatching western troops to Ukraine in any capacity has been unthinkable since the onset of major hostilities two years ago. NATO has made it quite clear it means to avoid being dragged into a wider war with nuclear-armed Russia.

Macron's comments were interesting in part because he wasn't talking about an alliance-wide initiative (which would require consensus among all 31 members) but rather an individual bilateral initiative of the sort that's used to help train and arm Ukraine's military.

Even so, Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and even the United States swiftly disavowed his idea.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau watches as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy takes a salute during a ceremony at Hostomel Airport in Kyiv on Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press)

Canada's response was a little muddled by comparison. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland avoided directly refuting Macron's suggestion on Tuesday. It was left to a spokesperson for Defence Minister Bill Blair to articulate the country's position.

"We will continue to provide Ukraine with comprehensive military assistance, but as a NATO member, Canada has no plans to deploy combat troops to Ukraine," said Diana Ebadi.

Both Freeland and Ebadi pointed to the security assurance package signed by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last weekend. It includes a clause stating that where military training is concerned, Canadian troops would return "to conduct associated activities in Ukraine when conditions permit."

Ukraine has been trying to entice allies to resume troop training within its borders. It's been sending its recruits and soldiers to the United Kingdom and Poland, where the bulk of the instruction has taken place.

Polish President Andrzej Duda and Minister of National Defence Mariusz Blaszczak meet with Polish instructors and Ukrainian soldiers training on Leopard 2 A4 tanks in the 10th Armoured Cavalry Brigade in Swietoszow, Poland on February 13, 2023. (Kacper Pempel/REUTERS)

It is safe to say that, with Ukraine on the defensive and the Russian army building up for a late spring or early summer theater-wide offensive, "conditions" are not right for the Canadian government to take such a provocative step, even if that was truly France's intention.

The news along the front in eastern Ukraine is growing more concerning by the day, with Russia recently making confirmed advances near Kreminna, Bakhmut and Avdiivka, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.

Zelenskyy said this week that Moscow is preparing a new offensive that will start in late May or June. He said the Ukrainian military has a clear plan to counter that push.

Members of Ukraine's National Guard Omega Special Purpose Unit fire a mortar toward Russian troops in Avdiivka in the Donetsk region on Nov. 8, 2023. (Serhii Nuzhnenko/Radio Free Europe/Reuters)

Andrew Rasiulis, a former senior official at the Department of National Defence (DND) who once ran the department's Directorate of Nuclear and Arms Control Policy, said Macron's comments are a sign of "deep concern" among European leaders about what's coming.

"The war is not going well for the Ukrainians. That's a fact. And so, people are getting nervous," said Rasiulis, a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.

He described Macron's remarks as nothing more than "musings" that seem to overlook the full consequences — because deploying forces "essentially means going to war."

The Kremlin, in response, was swift to warn that any deployment of western troops would lead to a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia.

"In this case, we need to talk not about probability, but about the inevitability (of conflict)," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

Matthew Schmidt, a national security and eastern European expert at the University of New Haven in Connecticut, said Macron's remarks could have been an attempt at a display of resolve for Russian President Vladimir Putin's benefit. If so, they appear to have backfired.

Schmidt said it's a remarkable about-face for a French president who, earlier in the war, pushed for negotiations and infamously insisted that Russia deserved security guarantees.

"The question I have is the timing," said Schmidt. "Everybody else in Europe is saying maybe it's time to, you know, look at negotiations, at least by the end of this year. Nobody is really doubling down at this point."

Politically, Schmidt said, it may be that Macron wants to establish France as the leader of the alliance's European side in light of wavering in the U.S. Congress.

"I think Macron saying what he did might be more in the interest of Macron than in the interest of France," he said.

Kremlin Warns of Escalation if NATO Troops Fight in Ukraine

By RFE/RL staff - Feb 27, 2024, 

• French President Macron's comments at a summit in Paris suggest a willingness to support Ukraine with military aid, including the possibility of sending Western troops, prompting a warning from the Kremlin about the risk of war with NATO.
• 
  
• Despite Macron's remarks, several European NATO members, including Germany and Poland, reject the idea of sending troops to Ukraine, emphasizing support through other means such as supplying advanced weaponry and ammunition.
• 
  
• NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg reaffirms that there are no plans for NATO combat troops on the ground in Ukraine, but stresses unprecedented support provided to Ukraine by allies.

The Kremlin has warned Kyiv's European allies that sending troops to fight in Ukraine would lead to the "inevitability" of war between Russia and NATO after France said that, despite a current lack of consensus, "nothing," including sending Western forces to fight on the Ukrainians' side, should be ruled out in terms of preventing a Russian victory in Ukraine.

Speaking after a summit of continental leaders in Paris on February 26, French President Emmanuel Macron said there was a "broad consensus to do more and quicker" for Ukraine as participants agreed to create a coalition to supply Ukraine with medium- and long-range missiles and bombs to back Kyiv's efforts to stave off Russia's invasion.

Macron told a news conference that "no consensus" existed on the sending of European ground troops to Ukraine, but added, "nothing should be excluded to achieve our objective. Russia cannot win that war."

Asked about Macron's remark, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on February 27 that "the very fact of discussing the possibility of sending certain contingents to Ukraine from NATO countries is a very important new element."

"We would need to talk not about the probability, but about the inevitability [of a direct conflict between Russian and NATO]," Peskov said.

Several European NATO members on February 27 rejected the possibility of sending troops into Ukraine.

"What was agreed from the beginning among ourselves and with each other also applies to the future, namely that there will be no soldiers on Ukrainian soil sent there by European states or NATO states," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who attended the Paris gathering, told journalists.

In Prague, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala and his visiting Polish counterpart, Donald Tusk, said their governments were not contemplating such a move.

"I am convinced that we should develop the paths of support that we embarked on after Russia's aggression," Fiala told a news conference alongside Tusk.

"I believe we don't need to open some other methods or ways," he added.

"Poland does not plan to send its troops to the territory of Ukraine," Tusk said.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg told the Associated Press on February 27 that “NATO allies are providing unprecedented support to Ukraine. We have done that since 2014 and stepped up after the full-scale invasion. But there are no plans for NATO combat troops on the ground in Ukraine.”

The Paris gathering was also attended by Polish President Andrzej Duda, and leaders from the Baltic nations, while the United States was represented by its top diplomat for Europe, James O’Brien, and Britain sent Foreign Secretary David Cameron.

Zelenskiy, who addressed the summit via video link, called on European leaders to ensure that Russian President Vladimir Putin "cannot destroy our achievements and cannot expand his aggression to other nations.”

Ukraine relies heavily on advanced weaponry and ammunition supplies from its Western allies, mainly from the United States, to resist increasingly intense assaults by Russian forces who have superiority in manpower and a large supply of ammunition.

Outgunned and outmanned Ukrainian troops have been recently forced to withdraw from some of their defensive positions in the east as a critical U.S. military aid package worth $61 billion remains blocked in the Republican-led House of Representatives.

Europe will help Ukraine "to take the initiative and act together at a time when there is uncertainty on the part of the United States regarding aid," Macron said

Participants to the gathering said there was increasing support from European countries, including France, for a Czech initiative to buy ammunition and shells outside the EU and send them to Ukraine.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said the Netherlands was willing to provide more than 100 million euros for that purpose.

By RFE/RL 

Germany, NATO rule out sending troops to Ukraine as Russia rebukes Macron

Rebuttal of Macron’s remarks comes as Kremlin warns of conflict if West puts boots on ground in Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron speaks at the end of a conference in support of Ukraine with European leaders and government representatives, held at the Elysee Palace in Paris, on February 26, 2024

 [Gonzalo Fuentes/Reuters]

Published On 27 Feb 2024

Germany, Poland and NATO have ruled out sending ground troops to Ukraine, as the Kremlin warned such a move would mark a major escalation and result in direct conflict between Russia and the Western security alliance.

The statements on Tuesday came a day after French President Emmanuel Macron raised the prospect following a European leaders’ meeting on boosting support for Ukraine in its war against Russia.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said participants of the conference in Paris discussed the matter but had agreed “that there will be no ground troops, no soldiers on Ukrainian soil who are sent there by European states or NATO states”.

Scholz said there was also consensus “that soldiers operating in our countries also are not participating actively in the war themselves”.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala – two of Kyiv’s strongest supporters – meanwhile said they too were not considering sending troops.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also told The Associated Press news agency that while members of the alliance had provided “unprecedented support” to Ukraine, “there are no plans for NATO combat troops on the ground in Ukraine”.

The idea of sending troops has been taboo, particularly as NATO seeks to avoid being dragged into a wider war with nuclear-armed Russia. Nothing prevents NATO members from joining such an undertaking individually or in groups, but the organisation would get involved only if all 31 members agreed.

The Kremlin, meanwhile, warned that a direct conflict between NATO and Russia would be inevitable if the alliance sent combat troops.

“The very fact of discussing the possibility of sending certain contingents to Ukraine from NATO countries is a very important new element,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters, commenting on Macron’s remarks.

It is “absolutely not in the interests” of European members of NATO, Peskov said. “In that case, we would need to talk not about the probability, but about the inevitability [of direct conflict].\

With Macron increasingly looking isolated, his government subsequently sought to clarify his comments.

French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said on Tuesday the president had in mind sending troops for specific tasks such as helping with mine clearance, production of weapons on site, and cyber-defence.

“[This] could require a [military] presence on Ukrainian territory, without crossing the threshold of fighting,” Sejourne told French lawmakers.


“It’s not sending troops to wage war against Russia,” the minister said.

The conference in Paris was held just after France, Germany and the UK each signed 10-year bilateral security agreements with Ukraine as its government works to shore up Western support.

Biden wins Michigan primary but sheds support over Gaza

Campaign to vote ‘uncommitted’ in protest of Biden’s support of Israel shows Arab American and young voters’ fury in swing state

Michigan primary 2024: track live results
Alice Herman in Madison, Wisconsin

 and Oliver Laughland in Dearborn, Michigan

THE GUARDIAN

Wed 28 Feb 2024 04.40 GMT


Joe Biden has won the Democratic primary in Michigan – but a concerted effort by anti-war activists to vote “uncommitted” in the race could overshadow his win.

The US president faced no real primary challenger in the contest. But a campaign that formed just weeks before the primary to vote “uncommitted” in protest of his continued support for Israel’s war in Gaza signaled the fury and betrayal some Arab American and younger voters in the state feel for Biden.



Michigan primary a test for Biden as key voters turn away over Gaza war

The group pushing for voters to choose “uncommitted” – called Listen to Michigan – set the goal of 10,000 uncommitted votes in the primary. With more than half of the votes tallied Tuesday night, “uncommitted” had received 74,000 votes out of a total of more than 580,000 – almost 13% of the vote.

For context, when the then president, Barack Obama, ran uncontested in the 2012 race, about 21,000 voted “uncommitted” against him in Michigan’s primary, with about 194,000 voting in total - just over 9% of voters.

Trump narrowly won the state by just 11,000 votes in 2016 and organisers of the “uncommitted” effort wanted to show that they have at least the number of votes that were Trump’s margin of victory in 2016, to demonstrate how influential the bloc can be.

People hug at the Listen to Michigan watch party on Tuesday. 

Photograph: Jeff Kowalsky/AFP/Getty Images

As results came in after polls closed at 8pm, members of the Listen to Michigan campaign gathered at a banquet hall in Dearborn and declared the results a victory for their campaign.. Attendees embraced and celebrated, many wearing the black and white keffiyeh.

Before handing the microphone off to a series of speakers for the campaign, Abbas Alawieh, a Listen to Michigan spokesperson, held a moment’s silence “for every human life that has been taken from us too soon using US taxpayer funds and bombs”.

“Thank you to our local and national progressive organizations and our voters of conscience, who used our democratic process to vote against war, genocide and the destruction of a people and a land,” said Layla Elabed, who launched the campaign in early February.

The former congressman Andy Levin, an early and prominent local supporter of the push to vote “uncommitted”, called the movement “a child of necessity” and said the turnout so far was “a huge victory”

“There is no hope for security and peace for the Jewish people without security and peace and freedom and justice for the Palestinian people,” said Levin, to cheers.

The Listen to Michigan campaign was intended as a warning for Biden to revise his so far unwavering support for Israel’s campaign in Gaza, which has killed nearly 30,000 Palestinians, ahead of the general election. The campaign is especially significant in Michigan given the state’s large Arab American population, a group that supported Biden strongly in 2020.

But it isn’t clear what share of “uncommitted” voters are prepared to abandon Biden in the general election this November, when he will most likely face Donald Trump – who is campaigning on a pledge to reinstate and expand his Muslim travel ban.

A day before the primary, Biden announced a ceasefire could come as soon as Monday – but both Hamas and Israeli officials denied that negotiations had progressed substantially.

In a statement on Tuesday night, Biden did not address the Listen to Michigan campaign or the growing tally of voters who cast their ballots as “uncommitted”, instead touting his record on labor and warning that Trump is “threatening to drag us even further into the past as he pursues revenge and retribution”.

Biden wins Michigan primary despite Gaza protest vote

By Brandon Drenon in Dearborn, Michigan 

& Madeline Halpert

BBC News

Activists celebrated at an event by Listen to Michigan - which urged voters to tick "uncommitted" on their ballot papers

President Joe Biden is projected to win Michigan's Democratic presidential primary comfortably, despite a significant protest vote over his stance towards the war in Gaza.

Activists have spent recent weeks urging Democrats to vote "uncommitted", and tens of thousands chose to do so.

That exceeded many expectations, though the latest CBS News projection suggests Mr Biden won 80% of the vote overall.

He thanked "every Michigander who made their voice heard today".

The US is an ally of Israel, providing it with billions of dollars in military aid. Earlier this month the US vetoed a UN resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, while proposing a draft of its own, urging a temporary ceasefire.

The US position has angered many, including in Biden's own party, who want the president to take a stronger stance against Israel's military campaign.

In a statement that did not reference the protest vote against him, he hailed the achievements of his administration in the state and launched an attack against his rival Donald Trump.

Mr Trump is also projected to easily win Tuesday's Republican primary in the state, after what he called a "great day". "We're going to win big," he told a campaign celebration event.Trump projected to win Michigan primary over Haley

Results so far from the primary contests - which the US political parties use to select their presidential candidate - indicate that the two men are on course to face off in November's general election, in a rematch of 2020.

Michigan is considered a critical swing state, which picked the winning president in the last two contests. It has the largest proportion of Arab-Americans in the country, but Mr Biden's support for Israel during its military campaign in the Palestinian enclave of Gaza appears to have cost him support among that demographic.

Activists from the group Listen to Michigan hailed the size of the "uncommitted" vote as a victory. People were in tears at the organisation's watch party as tallies were periodically updated.

Congressman Andy Levin, who supports the "uncommitted" vote, told the crowd: "I take no joy in being here tonight. This moment is a child of necessity because people are dying by the thousands."

Tuesday does not mark the first time a significant portion of Michiganders opted to cast votes as "uncommitted". Around 19,000 residents did so in 2020's primary and more than 21,601 in 2016. In 2008 it was 238,000 - after Barack Obama's campaign encouraged them to do so, because he chose not to be on the ballot due to party squabbles.

But campaigners in Michigan have been organising for months to send Mr Biden a message of "no ceasefire, no vote" over the war in Gaza.

At Salina Intermediate School in Dearborn - across the railroad tracks from a sprawling Ford factory - the BBC spoke to Hala, 32, who said she voted "uncommitted".

She did not "want to vote for Genocide Joe", she explained - alluding to allegations made against the Israeli military during its campaign in Gaza, which Israel strongly denies.

Hala - who declined to share her last name for privacy reasons - said she voted for Mr Biden last time, but was not sure she would do so again when the presidential election came round. "Maybe, if he calls for an immediate ceasefire, but he's not going to do that," she said.

Speaking earlier this week, Mr Biden said he hoped there would be a pause in fighting in Gaza by Monday - following reports of some progress in indirect negotiations involving Israeli and Hamas officials.

Other Democrats told the BBC on polling day that they remained supportive of Mr Biden, including Kim Murdough, an office manager at a church in the city of Flint.

Kim Murdough said she was sticking by Mr Biden

"I voted Democrat. I personally don't have an issue with anything that the administration has done," she said.

She added that separate concerns about Mr Biden's age - 81 - were not a deal-breaker for her. "I'd rather have someone in office that forgets a few things than a criminal," she said, referencing Mr Trump, who faces federal and state criminal charges.

Margaret Won voted for Mr Biden, too. She is mostly happy with the work the president has done, though said he had been blocked in some of his aims by Republicans in Congress.

She said she wished the frontrunner presidential candidates were younger and said if Nikki Haley beat Mr Trump to the Republican nomination, she might get her vote.

Ms Haley, however, is yet to win any primary contest against Mr Trump - a trend that continued on Tuesday.

Like dozens of other states, Michigan has open primary elections - which means Democrats, Republicans and independents were all able to cast votes, though they had to ask for a specific party's ballot when casting their vote.

The state's remaining Republican delegates - who must be secured for a candidate to win their party's nomination - will be formally awarded later at a convention this weekend.

Samraa Luqman wants voters to oust the president

During the present conflict between Israel and Hamas, the "uncommitted" movement gained endorsements from at least 39 state and local elected officials, including congresswoman Rashida Tlaib and Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud.

Ms Tlaib's sister was the campaign manager for Listen to Michigan campaign, which aimed to score 10,000 "uncommitted" votes - a number that was exceeded many times over.

Samraa Luqman, an activist with the Abandon Biden campaign, said her goal was to "oust somebody from office for having this many lives lost without calling for a ceasefire".

Another woman, who did not want to be named, told the BBC she had even switched party to Republican over the Middle Eastern conflict.

Senator Gary Peters, from Michigan, told reporters at a meeting arranged by the Biden campaign on Monday that the president understood voters' concerns about Gaza.


However, the White House has been reluctant to row back its support, sending billions of dollars in military aid to Israel and three times blocking a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire.

Instead the US has called for a pause in fighting and defended Israel's right to hunt down the Hamas gunmen who killed about 1,200 people in southern Israel on 7 October. Meanwhile, the death toll in Gaza is nearly 30,000 people, mostly women and children, according to the Hamas-led health ministry.

Young Voters Say Their Discontent Goes Deeper Than Israel and Gaza

“If you’re a Democratic incumbent running for re-election, young voters are an essential part of your coalition,” an independent pollster said, pointing to concerns for Democrats come November.

A polling site at the University of Michigan on Tuesday. Many students across the state were on spring break and not on campus.Credit...Brittany Greeson for The New York Times

By Anjali Huynh
Reporting from across Michigan
Feb. 27, 2024

The energy on Michigan college campuses ahead of the 2022 midterms, students said, was electric.

Armed with promises to protect abortion rights, Democratic candidates held large campus rallies, drawing crowds who came prepared to cheer, rather than protest. On Election Day, students showed up in droves — resulting in the highest youth turnout of any state, helping Democrats take full control of Michigan’s government for the first time in decades.

But before the Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday, the energy seems to have morphed into apathy or anger. Young activists have been at the forefront of sustained backlash to President Biden’s staunch support of Israel and its military campaign in Gaza, which began after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7. Protest of U.S. policy culminated in an effort encouraging residents to vote “uncommitted” to send a message to Mr. Biden in the pivotal general election state.

Interviews with more than two dozen students across the state indicated a deeper well of dissatisfaction, not just with the incumbent president, but with the prospect of once again having to choose between two candidates — Mr. Biden and former President Donald J. Trump — decades older than them.

“It’s been a tense atmosphere on campus,” said Adam Lacasse, a co-chairman of the College Democrats at the University of Michigan. “A lot of people, if they’re not upset with what’s going on, with the administration’s handling of that conflict, they’re turned off from politics because they don’t want to get engaged in it.”

National polls have for months reflected a similar sentiment: Voters under 30, who backed Mr. Biden by more than 20 points in 2020, are unenthusiastic about a rematch between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, who is heavily favored in the Republican primary on Tuesday.

But for some young people in Michigan and elsewhere, Mr. Biden’s alignment with Israel has presented a new concern. Voters under 30 overwhelmingly voiced their opposition to the conflict in a December New York Times/Siena College poll, saying that Israel hadn’t done enough to prevent civilian casualties in Gaza and that the military campaign should stop.

Many college students in Michigan, regardless of where they stood on the foreign policy issue, described the conflict as nearly inescapable. Campus protests have become commonplace, and coverage of the war has dominated their social media feeds.

Hussein Bazzi, 24, a student at Wayne State University, said he would vote “uncommitted” to send a message to Mr. Biden: “that we want an immediate cease-fire.” Mr. Bazzi supported Mr. Biden in 2020 but is unsure whether he will again in November. “If that doesn’t send a clear message to him,” he said, “then I don’t know what does.”

The strength of the “uncommitted” vote in Michigan will be watched for signs of President Biden’s strength for November in a key battleground state.

Credit...Emily Elconin for The New York Times

Mr. Biden is still expected to easily win Tuesday’s primary. But the strength of his opposition will be closely watched as a signal about his support heading into November.

A poll commissioned by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV in January found that 15.6 percent of Michigan voters 18 to 29 had a favorable view of Mr. Biden.

“If you’re a Democratic incumbent running for re-election, young voters are an essential part of your coalition, and that is why the numbers we’re finding in Michigan show Joe Biden really has kind of a perilous path right now,” said Richard Czuba, an independent pollster in Lansing, Mich., who said Mr. Biden’s age was the primary driver of dissatisfaction.

Several Michigan leaders of College Democrats said they were concerned that young people were simply not excited about 2024. Even a small slip in Mr. Biden’s coalition, with voters staying home, could hurt his chances.

Our politics reporters. Times journalists are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. That includes participating in rallies and donating money to a candidate or cause.

“I’m definitely not going to sugarcoat it: I personally am nervous,” said Liam Richichi, the vice president of College Democrats at Michigan State University. He added that students appeared “bored with the prospects that we have.”

“I’ve talked to a lot of people in the club, and something that we are actively trying to work against is the potential for low voter turnout,” he added, suggesting that the group might emphasize down-ballot races like the Senate election in November.

The Biden campaign deployed a few surrogates to reach young people before Tuesday: Representative Sara Jacobs of California held a discussion at the University of Michigan, and Gov. Wes Moore of Maryland led a virtual rally with students.

Alyssa Bradley, the Michigan communications director for the Biden campaign, said Mr. Biden “has taken historic action to support young Americans,” pointing to his passage of climate policy, millions in student loan forgiveness, and his backing of abortion access, which she said was a “stark contrast” from Mr. Trump.

“Our rights, our future and our democracy are on the line this election, and we’ll continue to engage young people to stop Donald Trump from returning to the White House, just like we did in 2020,” she said.

But some young people indicated in interviews that they were not aware of the president’s accomplishments on issues they cared about, part of a messaging challenge the campaign has sought to remedy by expanding its digital presence. (Mr. Biden made his first TikTok post this month.)

“I acknowledge the American right to vote, but we also have the right to not do so, especially if you don’t agree with any of the candidates,” said Aiden Duong, a 19-year-old student at Michigan State who is not part of the “uncommitted” effort. He said he did not plan to support Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden in November, citing their ages and what he perceived as inaction on climate change, a key issue for him.

Listen to Michigan, the group of primarily young organizers pushing for the “uncommitted” protest vote, has tried to capitalize on Democratic dissatisfaction by appearing on campuses, but has at times struggled reach that audience. The primary is taking place during a week when many Michigan students are on spring break, and many students still on campus weren’t aware of the election.

Around 100 people eventually showed up to an “uncommitted” rally on the University of Michigan’s Ann Arbor campus last week. Organizers encouraged attendees to stand in a large circle to take up more space. A march to the polls organized by Listen to Michigan at Kalamazoo College drew around 15 students on Saturday.

A rally for “uncommitted” last week in Ann Arbor. Organizers encouraged people to form a larger circle so the protest would take up more space.

Credit...Nick Hagen for The New York Times

Mr. Biden said on Monday that he was hopeful for a cease-fire within the next week. But some students supporting the effort say that nothing will change their mind on Mr. Biden. Salma Hamamy, a student at the University of Michigan who has organized pro-Palestinian protests there, said that despite supporting Mr. Biden in 2020, she would not do so again.

“For me, he is beyond redemption — he has lost my vote because voting for him is basically me saying that I am OK with his actions,” said Ms. Hamamy, 22. “If that means Trump is elected, I blame the Democratic Party for allowing that to happen.”

Students backing Mr. Biden, however, argue that even as their peers remain skeptical, closely comparing the two candidates will be enough to win over young people as November draws nearer.

Immaculata James, a co-chair of the College Democrats at Grand Valley State University in Allendale, Mich., pointed to the Biden administration’s work in areas such as college debt relief and health care costs in encouraging students to ask, “Even though it’s not a very exciting election, at the end of the day, what’s your future like under Trump versus under Biden?”

Donovan Greene, a senior at Kalamazoo College who attended the Listen to Michigan walk to the polls, said she supported Mr. Biden in 2020, calling him the “lesser of two evils,” but was voting “uncommitted” in the primary because of his Israel policy.

But Ms. Greene said that in her “last desperate moments,” she would consider backing him again in November, saying, “The changes that happened in the U.S. socially and economically under Donald Trump’s presidency were unequivocally what I don’t want to see.”

Anjali Huynh, a member of the 2023-24 Times Fellowship class based in New York, covers national politics, the 2024 presidential campaign and other elections.