Friday, March 08, 2024

 

Bald eagles eat prairie dogs? Researchers underscore relationship between raptors and rodents in the southern plains


Peer-Reviewed Publication

RAPTOR RESEARCH FOUNDATION

Delivery to Nest 

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ADULT BALD EAGLE DELIVERS PRAIRIE DOG TO A NEST NEAR BOULDER, COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH RESEARCH IN AN UPCOMING PAPER IN VOL 55 WESTERN BIRDS JOURNAL.

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CREDIT: DANA BOVE




We all know that bald eagles like fish. Few of us, however, picture them soaring over grasslands seeking out prairie dog snacks. In a new paper from the Journal of Raptor Research, lead author Courtney Duchardt and coauthors make the case that prairie dogs are an important resource for at least four species of raptors overwintering in the Southern Great Plains, bald eagles included. Their paper, titled “Overwintering Raptor Abundance and Community Composition in Relation to Prairie Dog Colonies in the Southern Great Plains,” explains the first broad scale look into the relationship between prairie dogs and their aerial predators, and illuminates an important trophic interaction with implications for raptor conservation through the lens of climate change.

 

Grasslands across North America have shrunk significantly since the 1970’s, and for those remaining, habitat quality is a far cry from what it used to be. Since the ‘90’s, the total population of grassland birds across North America has decreased by 53%, illustrating the link between grassland health and bird abundance. Grassland raptors, with their large spatial requirements, likely suffer graver consequences from these reductions in habitat quality than other birds.

 

Duchardt, from the Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management at Oklahoma State University, and her colleagues, provide strong evidence that the stability and predictability of prairie dog colonies provides an important prey source for overwintering raptors across the Southwest Great Plains. Between 1998 and 2002 the research team conducted winter road surveys in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and the Mexican state of Chihuahua. Their results were illuminating — nine raptor species occurred in tandem with prairie dog colonies. Notably, bald eagles and rough-legged hawks were included in this pattern, even though they don’t often encounter prairie dogs on their breeding grounds. However, as Duchardt points out, “prairie dogs are perfectly sized raptor-snacks,” so it makes sense that both species would see them as caloric jackpots.

 

Climate change could alter cycles of prairie dog reproduction. Already, variation in climate norms has increased the occurrence of plague among colonial breeding rodents like prairie dogs. If raptors feed on prairie dogs as often as this new study suggests, these shifts in prairie dog availability could push raptors to range further for food. The further they range, the more often they encounter dangers like wind turbines, which have been shown to negatively affect golden eagles and ferruginous hawks. This is of special concern for juvenile raptor which have a hard enough time during their first year of life without added stressors.

 

An obvious next step is to prioritize protection of prairie dog colonies in areas where raptors are associating with them as a prey source. However, supporting prairie dogs for the sake of raptor health is politically tricky. “Prairie dogs are contentious and seen as pests in most parts of their range. However, their role as a keystone species helps to demonstrate that, even though there are conflicts, they are important,” says Duchardt. “To support raptors wintering in the Southern Plains, we need to consider prairie dog management.”

 

Raptors are bioindicators, meaning they serve as proxies for habitat health, and they play a key part in naturally supporting ecosystem functioning as top predators on the landscape. Even with the reality of human-prairie dog conflict, there are pathways forward. “Ranching can be compatible with diverse wildlife communities because many of the wildlife co-evolved with bison, and sustainable ranching can replicate that,” says Duchardt. Using innovative management tools and educating the public on the importance of prairie dogs and raptors in these regions, Duchardt is optimistic that a middle ground can be found — one that allows bald eagles to munch on prairie dogs for years to come.

  

Adult prairie dog on a colony in southwestern Oklahoma.

CREDIT

Courtney Duchardt

Paper

Allison Salas, Courtney Duchardt, and Natasha Carr "Overwintering Raptor Abundance and Community Composition in Relation to Prairie Dog Colonies in the Southern and Central Great Plains," Journal of Raptor Research 58(1), 37-53, (19 February 2024).
https://doi.org/10.3356/JRR-22-119

 

Notes to Editor:

1. The Journal of Raptor Research (JRR) is an international scientific journal dedicated entirely

to the dissemination of information about birds of prey. Established in 1967, JRR has published

peer-reviewed research on raptor ecology, behavior, life history, conservation, and techniques.

JRR is available quarterly to members in electronic and paper format.

 

2. The Raptor Research Foundation (RRF) is the world’s largest professional society for raptor

researchers and conservationists. Founded in 1966 as a non-profit organization, our primary

goal is the accumulation and dissemination of scientific information about raptors. The

Foundation organizes annual scientific conferences and provides competitive grants & awards

for student researchers & conservationists. The Foundation also provides support & networking

opportunities for students & early career raptor researchers.

 

Balancing training data and human knowledge makes AI act more like a scientist


Peer-Reviewed Publication

CELL PRESS




When you teach a child how to solve puzzles, you can either let them figure it out through trial and error, or you can guide them with some basic rules and tips. Similarly, incorporating rules and tips into AI training—such as the laws of physics—could make them more efficient and more reflective of the real world. However, helping the AI assess the value of different rules can be a tricky task.

Researchers report March 8 in the journal Nexus that they have developed a framework for assessing the relative value of rules and data in “informed machine learning models” that incorporate both. They showed that by doing so, they could help the AI incorporate basic laws of the real world and better navigate scientific problems like solving complex mathematical problems and optimizing experimental conditions in chemistry experiments.

“Embedding human knowledge into AI models has the potential to improve their efficiency and ability to make inferences, but the question is how to balance the influence of data and knowledge,” says first author Hao Xu of Peking University. “Our framework can be employed to evaluate different knowledge and rules to enhance the predictive capability of deep learning models.”

Generative AI models like ChatGPT and Sora are purely data-driven—the models are given training data, and they teach themselves via trial and error. However, with only data to work from, these systems have no way to learn physical laws, such as gravity or fluid dynamics, and they also struggle to perform in situations that differ from their training data. An alternative approach is informed machine learning, in which researchers provide the model with some underlying rules to help guide its training process, but little is known about the relative importance of rules vs data in driving model accuracy.

“We are trying to teach AI models the laws of physics so that they can be more reflective of the real world, which would make them more useful in science and engineering,” says senior author Yuntian Chen of the Eastern Institute of Technology, Ningbo.

To improve the performance of informed machine learning, the team developed a framework to calculate the contribution of an individual rule to a given model’s predictive accuracy. The researchers also examined interactions between different rules because most informed machine learning models incorporate multiple rules, and having too many rules can cause models to collapse.

This allowed them to optimize models by tweaking the relative influence of different rules and to filter out redundant or interfering rules entirely. They also identified some rules that worked synergistically and other rules that were completely dependent on the presence of other rules.

“We found that the rules have different kinds of relationships, and we use these relationships to make model training faster and get higher accuracy,” says Chen.

The researchers say that their framework has broad practical applications in engineering, physics, and chemistry. In the paper, they demonstrated the method’s potential by using it to optimize machine learning models to solve multivariate equations and to predict the results of thin layer chromatography experiments and thereby optimize future experimental chemistry conditions.

Next, the researchers plan to develop their framework into a plugin tool that can be used by AI developers. Ultimately, they also want to train their models so that the models can extract knowledge and rules directly from data, rather than having rules selected by human researchers.

“We want to make it a closed loop by making the model into a real AI scientist,” says Chen. “We are working to develop a model that can directly extract knowledge from the data and then use this knowledge to create rules and improve itself.”

###

This research was supported by the National Center for Applied Mathematics Shenzhen, the Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Natural Gas Hydrates, the SUSTech – Qingdao New Energy Technology Research Institute, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Nexus, Xu et al., “Worth of prior knowledge for enhancing deep learning” https://www.cell.com/nexus/fulltext/S2950-1601(24)00001-9

 

Perspectives of Black patients on racism within emergency care


JAMA Health Forum

Peer-Reviewed Publication

JAMA NETWORK




About The Study: This qualitative study including 25 interviews with Black patients discharged from the emergency department described these patients’ perspectives about racism in health care, recent clinical experiences, and thoughts on system improvements. Black patients described a notable amount of medical mistrust, anticipation of racism in emergency care, and personal experiences with clinical instances of racism in emergency treatment.

Authors: Anish K. Agarwal, M.D., M.P.H., M.S., of the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, is the corresponding author.

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/

(doi:10.1001/jamahealthforum.2024.0046)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

#  #  #

Embed this link to provide your readers free access to the full-text article 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-health-forum/fullarticle/10.1001/jamahealthforum.2024.0046?utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_term=030824

About JAMA Health Forum: JAMA Health Forum is an international, peer-reviewed, online, open access journal that addresses health policy and strategies affecting medicine, health and health care. The journal publishes original research, evidence-based reports and opinion about national and global health policy; innovative approaches to health care delivery; and health care economics, access, quality, safety, equity and reform. Its distribution will be solely digital and all content will be freely available for anyone to read.

USA

nTIDE February 2024 Jobs Report: Overall employment trend still positive despite recent declines for people with disabilities


National Trends in Disability Employment (nTIDE) – Issued semi-monthly by Kessler Foundation and the University of New Hampshire


Reports and Proceedings

KESSLER FOUNDATION

nTIDE Month-to-Month Comparison of Labor Market Indicators for People with and without Disabilities 

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THIS GRAPHIC COMPARES THE LABOR MARKET INDICATORS FOR JANUARY 2024 AND FEBRUARY 2024, SHOWING DECREASES IN THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE AND EMPLOYMENT-TO-POPULATION RATIO FOR PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES. BOTH INDICATORS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR PEOPLE WITHOUT DISABILITIES.

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CREDIT: KESSLER FOUNDATION





East Hanover, NJ – March 8, 2024 – Despite recent declines in the labor force participation rate and employment-to-population ratio, the overall employment trend remains positive for people with disabilities, according to today’s National Trends in Disability Employment – semi-monthly update (nTIDE), issued by Kessler Foundation and the University of New Hampshire’s Institute on Disability (UNH-IOD).

Month-to-Month nTIDE Numbers (comparing January 2024 to February 2024)

Based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report released today, the employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities (ages 16-64) decreased from 37.8 percent in January 2024 to 36.7 percent in February 2024 (down 2.9 percent or 1.1 percentage points). For people without disabilities (ages 16-64), the employment-to-population ratio increased from 74.2 percent in January 2024 to 74.6 percent in February 2024 (up 0.5 percent or 0.4 percentage points). The employment-to-population ratio, a key indicator, reflects the percentage of people who are working relative to the total population (the number of people working divided by the number of people in the total population multiplied by 100).

“Similar to last month, we saw a decline in the employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities in February,” said John O’Neill, PhD, director of the Center for Employment and Disability Research at Kessler Foundation. “This appears to be consistent with early spring declines we have seen in the past for this population,” he noted.

The labor force participation rate for people with disabilities (ages 16-64) decreased from 40.5 percent in January 2024 to 40.1 percent in February 2024 (down 1 percent or 0.4 percentage points). For people without disabilities (ages 16-64), the labor force participation rate increased from 77.3 percent in January 2024 to 77.7 percent in February 2024 (up 0.5 percent or 0.4 percentage points). The labor force participation rate reflects the percentage of people who are in the labor force (working, on temporary layoff (on furlough), or actively looking for work in the last four weeks) relative to the total population (the number of people in the labor force divided by the number of people in the total population multiplied by 100).

“Although their percentage employed declined, people with disabilities largely remained in the labor force, which is a good sign for next month’s numbers,” said Andrew Houtenville, PhD, professor of economics and research director of the UNH-IOD.

Year-to-Year nTIDE Numbers (comparing February 2023 to February 2024)

The employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities (ages 16-64) decreased from 36.9 percent in February 2023 to 36.7 percent in February 2024 (down 0.5 percent or 0.2 percentage points). For people without disabilities (ages 16-64), the employment-to-population ratio increased slightly from 74.4 percent in February 2023 to 74.6 percent in February 2024 (up 0.3 percent or 0.2 percentage points).

Similarly, the labor force participation rate for people with disabilities (ages 16-64) decreased from 40.2 percent in February 2023 to 40.1 percent in February 2024 (down 0.2 percent or 0.1 percentage points). For people without disabilities (ages 16-64), the labor force participation rate also increased from 77.3 percent in February 2023 to 77.7 percent in February 2024 (up 0.5 percent or 0.4 percentage points).

In February, among workers ages 16-64, the 6,194,000 workers with disabilities represented 4.2 percent of the total 149,243,000 workers in the U.S.



This graphic compares the labor market indicators for February 2023 and February 2024, showing decreases for people with disabilities and increases for people without disabilities.

CREDIT

Kessler Foundation


Ask Questions about Disability and Employment

Each nTIDE release is followed by an nTIDE Lunch & Learn online webinar. This live broadcast, hosted via Zoom Webinar, offers attendees Q&A on the latest nTIDE findings, provides news, updates from the field, and features invited panelists who discuss current disability-related findings and events.

On March 8, 2024, from 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm Eastern, guest presenter Patricia D. Gill, JD, director of Workforce Development at the National Restaurant Association Educational Foundation (NRAEF), joins Drs. Houtenville and O’Neill and Denise Rozell from AUCD. Join our free Lunch & Learn live or visit the nTIDE archives at: ResearchonDisability.org/nTIDE. Also, register now for our mid-month Deeper Dive into employment trends at nTIDE Deeper Dive – 03/22/2024.

NOTE: The statistics in the nTIDE are based on BLS numbers but are not identical. They are customized by UNH to combine the statistics for men and women of working age (16- 64). nTIDE is funded by the National Institute on Disability, Independent Living and Rehabilitation Research (NIDILRR; 90RTGE0005) and Kessler Foundation.

About the Institute on Disability at the University of New Hampshire

The Institute on Disability (IOD) at the University of New Hampshire (UNH) was established in 1987 to provide a university-based focus for the improvement of knowledge, policies, and practices related to the lives of persons with disabilities and their families. For information on the NIDILRR-funded Research and Training Center on Disability Statistics, visit ResearchOnDisability.org.

About Kessler Foundation
Kessler Foundation, a major nonprofit organization in the field of disability, is a global leader in rehabilitation research. Our scientists seek to improve cognition, mobility, and long-term outcomes, including employment, for adults and children with neurological and developmental disabilities of the brain and spinal cord including traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, stroke, multiple sclerosis, and autism. Kessler Foundation also leads the nation in funding innovative programs that expand opportunities for employment for people with disabilities. For more information, visit KesslerFoundation.org.

Press Contacts at Kessler Foundation:
Deborah Hauss, DHauss@kesslerfoundation.org
Carolann Murphy, CMurphy@KesslerFoundation.org

Stay Connected with Kessler Foundation
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U$A

‘Politicians in robes’: How a sharp right turn imperiled trust in the Supreme Court



The court’s shift, capped by the 2022 Dobbs ruling, polarized views along partisan lines for the first time in decades


Peer-Reviewed Publication

ANNENBERG PUBLIC POLICY CENTER OF THE UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA

Trust in the U.S. Supreme Court 

IMAGE: 

SOURCE: ANNENBERG PUBLIC POLICY CENTER CONSTITUTION DAY SURVEYS, 2005-2023.

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CREDIT: ANNENBERG PUBLIC POLICY CENTER




For decades, the U.S. Supreme Court was viewed as one of the few American institutions respected by Democrats and Republicans alike. It was seen as a legal institution, not a political one, strengthened by its “norms, processes, symbols, and independence” – and was granted greater public trust and legitimacy than most other institutions.

But that privileged status is no more. New research led by the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania finds that the court’s “special status has evaporated” and that the court’s dramatic shift to the right, capped by the 2022 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, has upended that favored relationship and polarized the public’s view of the court along partisan lines for the first time in decades.

These findings are in the article “Has the Supreme Court become just another political branch? Public perceptions of court approval and legitimacy in a post-Dobbs world,” published March 8, 2024, in Science Advances. In its June 24, 2022, Dobbs ruling, the Supreme Court overturned the popular, half-century-old Roe v. Wade decision establishing a constitutional right to abortion.

“The most important takeaway is that pre-2022, pre-Dobbs, there is no real evidence of political polarization in the public’s views of the Supreme Court,” said lead author Matthew Levendusky, a political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania’s School of Arts and Sciences and the Stephen and Mary Baran Chair in the Institutions of Democracy at the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC).

“We have data from the Annenberg Public Policy Center’s Constitution Day surveys going back to 2006,” Levendusky said, “and on occasion we see trust and approval bounce around a bit between Democrats and Republicans. But starting in 2022, we see very clear views of partisan polarization of the court so that post-Dobbs, those who support abortion access or are Democrats think much less of the court, while people who are Republican or disapprove of abortion think highly of the court.”

Highlights

From 2005-2019, large majorities of Americans across the political spectrum either had a “great deal” or a “fair amount” of trust in the Supreme Court, according to APPC surveys. From 2019 to 2022, however, confidence in the Supreme Court plunged 22 percentage points, from 68% to 46%, a finding mirrored in data from other survey firms, including Gallup and Pew.

In Science Advances, the researchers find:

  • Using 18 nationally representative surveys spanning nearly two decades, there was little evidence of partisan polarization in the earlier years – but in 2022 and 2023, evidence of polarization is clear in measures of favorability, trust, legitimacy, and support for reform of the court.
     
  • Knowledge of the court and support for key democratic values no longer protect the court in the way that they once did. “These findings suggest that at least part of the public increasingly sees the Court as politicians in robes, with troubling implications for its role in our democracy.”
     
  • A content analysis to understand how the public learned about Dobbs – measuring coverage in the media agenda-setting New York Times – found that the Times published more stories on the court in 2022 than in any year since 2008 and that Dobbs and the issue of abortion “received a simply unprecedented share” (60%) of that coverage.
     

Legitimacy and trust

For most of the past two decades, partisanship had only a weak effect on views about the court’s legitimacy, the researchers said. This changed in 2022 and held in 2023. Democrats saw the court as less legitimate and Republicans saw it as more so. Democrats thought that the court was “too mixed up in politics,” favored stripping its jurisdiction on certain issues, thought that its power should be reduced and it should be made less independent, and thought that the justices used their political beliefs, not the law, to decide cases.

“The stark polarization that existed in 2022 endures, and this is quite worrying,” the researchers said. “A significant part of the public now sees the Court as just another political branch, not a legal institution above politics.”

The declining sense of the court’s legitimacy is the most troubling, the researchers said. “As Hamilton noted in Federalist 78 more than 230 years ago, the Court has ‘neither force nor will, but merely judgment’ – it cannot enforce its decisions, but instead must persuade the other branches and the public to obey them, something that can only come from legitimacy. When this legitimacy erodes, politicians and the public are more likely to curb the Court’s power and constrain its independence through significant reforms.”

Levendusky added: “That’s why factors such as trust and legitimacy are so important – so that people will trust the court and obey its decisions. Once that gets called into question – and the evidence is clear that Dobbs has done that – we’re potentially in a very dangerous place.”

In his year-end reports to the judiciary, Chief Justice John Roberts has noted similar concerns. In 2019, he wrote, “I ask my judicial colleagues to continue their efforts to promote public confidence in the judiciary, both through their rulings and through civic outreach.” Discussing judicial ethics in his 2021 report, he wrote that “public trust is essential, not incidental, to our function.”

About the article

The Science Advances article is based on eight waves of an APPC Annenberg Institutions of Democracy panel study first fielded during the 2020 presidential election cycle in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin with about 1,200 eligible voters in each state, continuing through 2023. The article also uses 18 nationally representative surveys tracking perceptions of the court since 2005 that were conducted either by the Annenberg Public Policy Center or by the Weidenbaum Center at Washington University, which show that the current partisan polarization is anomalous.

In addition to Levendusky, the article’s authors are Shawn Patterson Jr., an APPC research analyst; Michele Margolis, an associate professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania; Josh Pasek, an associate professor of communication and media and political science at the University of Michigan; Ken Winneg, managing director of survey research, APPC; and Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director, APPC.

“Has the Supreme Court become just another branch? Public perceptions of court approval and legitimacy in a post-Dobbs world” was published March 8, 2024, by Science Advances.
 

Is polarization spreading to views of the judiciary?

A second article by a research team at the Annenberg Public Policy Center that examines the judiciary more broadly is in press in the journal Judicature. Based on Annenberg surveys, including a nationally representative survey of U.S. adults conducted in October 2023, the Judicature analysis finds that the public has more trust in the judiciary as a whole than in the Supreme Court in particular, said Patterson, the lead author.

“However, the data do suggest that the polarization we are seeing in views of the Supreme Court is starting to trickle down to perceptions of the courts at large,” Patterson said.

The article, co-authored by Levendusky, Winneg, and Jamieson, is scheduled for print publication in Judicature’s June issue.

Source: Science Advances, Levendusky et al., Sci Adv.10, eadk9590 (2024). Based on Annenberg Public Policy Center Institutions of Democracy Survey, 2020-2023.

CREDIT

Science Advances, Levendusky et al., Sci Adv.10, eadk9590 (2024). This work is licensed under CC BY-NC.

The Annenberg Public Policy Center was established in 1993 to educate the public and policy makers about communication’s role in advancing public understanding of political, science, and health issues at the local, state, and federal levels.

 

Child care costs, availability keeping New York parents at home, poll finds


Reports and Proceedings

CORNELL UNIVERSITY





BUFFALO, N.Y. - Two out of five New Yorkers with children who participated in a recent poll report that a member of their household opts not to work, mostly because child care is too expensive, while child care workers earn among the lowest wages in the state, according to a report released March 8 by the Cornell School of Industrial and Labor Relations Buffalo Co-Lab.

Continuing a multiyear effort with collaborators to determine the “true” cost of child care, “The Status of Child Care in New York State” finds that recent increases in state subsidies helped stabilize the industry through the pandemic, but were insufficient to reduce inequities in access and quality.

Since 2021, child care capacity across the state increased by about 3%, or nearly 19,000 slots at licensed child care providers, but did not improve or declined in many areas, particularly in upstate counties and low-income communities.

Authors of the report are Catherine Creighton, the co-lab director; Steve Peraza, senior researcher and policy associate; and Russell Weaver, director of research. Doctoral students from the State University of New York at Buffalo supported.

The team discussed its findings March 8 during a livestreamed public event in Buffalo, joined by child care workers, parents and partners.

The researchers analyzed state workforce and economic impact data and responses to Cornell’s 2023 Empire State Poll. They also conducted interviews and focus groups with child care providers, advocates and officials in Erie County to assess the impact of recent state policy changes.

Top-level findings include:

  • Child care workers in New York state remain underpaid and undervalued, earning a median wage of $32,900 – nearly 40% less than the median wage for all New Yorkers – with 12% falling below the poverty line. The state’s more than 69,000 child care workers are racially diverse, but 94% are women.
  • Lack of access to affordable child care removes New York workers from the economy. Among Empire State Poll respondents, in households where an adult member stayed home because of child care, more than half said they did so because of its high cost, while nearly a quarter said they lacked access. Labor shortages are exacerbated if parents are unable to work due to child care issues.
  • New Yorkers value quality child care and support investments in the industry. Nearly 80% of Empire State Poll respondents indicated they would support public funding for universal child care as a free public service akin to K-12 public education.
  • Child care capacity is ticking up, but not everywhere. Capacity declined in 22 mostly upstate counties, including by more than 20% in Greene, Schuyler, Oswego and Franklin counties, and about 8% in Manhattan.
  • A child care compensation fund would raise wages for all child care workers. The researchers’ analysis showed a 1.9 to 1 return on investment, suggesting that if such a fund cost $2 billion annually, it would create $3.8 billion in economic activity and 40,608 new jobs.

The authors pointed to a similar fund implemented in Washington, D.C. to increase child care workers’ pay on par with starting salaries for elementary school teachers.

“If implemented in New York state, a compensation fund would likely stem the tide of workers leaving the child care industry due to poverty wages,” the report states. “Moreover, Buffalo Co-Lab research shows that the return on investment would far exceed the cost of the program, creating tens of thousands of new jobs and activating new economic activity connected to the child care industry.”

For additional information, read this Cornell Chronicle story.

Cornell University has dedicated television and audio studios available for media interviews.

- 30 -

 

Democratic backslide a threat to free elections globally


Reports and Proceedings

UNIVERSITY OF GOTHENBURG





Over half of the 60 countries holding national elections this year are experiencing a democratic decline, risking the integrity of the electoral process, as reported in the latest Democracy Report from the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg. The worsening election quality is concerning, given the pivotal role elections play in either reinforcing or mitigating the trend of autocratization.

The wave of democratic backsliding, or autocratization, continues to be noticeable, according to the report. 42 countries are autocratizing, and 71 percent of the world’s population now live in autocracies – up from 48 percent ten years ago. There is a growing trend of threats against freedom of expression and the media, free and fair elections, and civil society organizations.

“The democratic recession is most noticeable in Eastern Europe and South and Central Asia, while Latin America and the Caribbean go against the global trend and instead see democracy levels increase. Hungary has seen the most rapid decline recently on democracy levels worldwide, while in Latin America, Brazil has completely turned around it’s autocratization process and is now one of the major democratizers,” says Professor Staffan I. Lindberg, Director of the V-Dem Institute.

Election integrity increasingly targeted
The report reveals a concerning global trend of declining quality of elections. The number of countries witnessing a decline in free and fair elections has more than doubled in the last four years, with 35 countries deteriorating. Moreover, governments in 24 countries are increasingly encroaching upon the autonomy of election management bodies. The erosion of election quality is particularly alarming as elections can either reinforce or counteract the autocratization trend.

Of over 60 countries holding national elections this year, 31 are worsening on their democracy levels, while only three are improving.

“Election management bodies’ autonomy is being undermined in 23 of the countries holding elections in 2024, including India with its 1.4 billion citizens. This year, when such a large share of the world’s population is voting, it is especially worrying that we see such an unprecedented decline in quality of elections during 2023.”

Among the 26 countries that lack notable declines or improvements in democracy levels in recent years, some upcoming elections, like the one in the United States, are also critical.

“Donald Trump's previous term as president undermined American democracy, with attacks on media freedom, judicial independence, and executive oversight. His rhetoric and actions, from labeling opponents as 'vermin' to threatening the Department of Justice and journalists, set dangerous precedents. A second term for Trump could further jeopardize democracy.”

The fact that a majority of elections during the “super election year” of 2024 take place in such contested spaces makes this year likely to be pivotal for the future of democracy in the world.

The picture is not entirely bleak
Most democratic countries are stable, showing no significant deterioration in democracy levels. In 2023, 18 countries are democratizing, including Brazil, the fifth largest country in the world. Nine other countries are showing signs of improvements and could become potential democratic “bright spots” in the near future.

There is also a potential shift towards having more electoral democracies than electoral autocracies in the world. In 2023, electoral democracies outnumbered electoral autocracies for the third consecutive year.

“While there are not many positive signs for democracy in the world today, this may be one to take note of. However, a cause for worry is that this recent increase of electoral democracies is partly a consequence of liberal democracies backsliding,” says Staffan I. Lindberg. 

Join the online launch
The Democracy Report will be launched online today, March 7 at 15:00-16:00 CET. Welcome to join the live event at the V-Dem Institute YouTube-channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5gQNpkleSA

The Report Democracy Winning and Losing at the Ballot is available for download from the V-Dem website from 15:00 CET: www.v-dem.net.
For an early copy, please contact Sara Haug Andersson.
E-mail: sara.haug.andersson@gu.se, phone: +46-31–786 6306.

About V-Dem
V-Dem produces the largest global dataset on democracy with over 31 million data points for 202 countries from 1789 to 2023. Involving more than 4,000 scholars and other country experts, V-Dem measures hundreds of different attributes of democracy. The V-Dem Institute is part of the Department of Political Science at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden. Read more at https://v-dem.net/www.v-dem.net.

Finnish Union AKT Plans Two-Week Port Strike Protesting Government Policies

Helsinki port
AKT plans to stop all freight operations in a two-week political strike against planned government policy changes (Helsinki file photo)

PUBLISHED MAR 8, 2024 5:01 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

One of Finland’s largest trade unions, AKT, is leading a nationwide two-week strike starting on Monday with the intention of interrupting freight operations at the country’s ports stopping imports and exports in what they are calling a political strike. The union contends that it does not want to hurt workers but the government has not shown any willingness to negotiate on impending changes to social programs.

The strike is scheduled to start on Monday, March 11, and is currently set to run through March 24. Among the specific operations that are targeted are the freight operations of ferry operator Viking Line with all drivers, traffic controllers, and truck surveyors participating in the strike. They will however not be striking against passenger operations.

Other parts of the strike are targeting Neste’s oil and petroleum products at the storage facilities. The stevedores will be part of the strike which will also impact port and terminal operators. They are also targeting railroad freight operations.

According to the union at issue are a series of steps the government plans to enact that will “broadly weaken the rights of both current and all future generations” of workers. They cite policies that are designed to reform the labor market and cut social security benefits. Among the steps are limits to the right to stage sympathy strikes supporting other unions or groups, cuts to earning-related unemployment insurance, and a push by the government to promote more local bargaining. In addition to the direct cuts, the union says these moves would also weaken collective agreements.

The union reports it polled members online and received more than 7,500 responses. They said 81 percent supported organizing the strikes while only 15 percent did not agree with the strikes. More than 7,000 members are expected to participate in the two-week-long strike. Also supporting the action will be the Industrial Union which is targeting heavy industry and the Electrical Workers’ Union which is targeting Neste.

The union says it has been trying to engage with the government since November to discuss the impact of the proposed changes and is looking for the government to show willingness to soften its stance. The union said it was willing to suspend the strike if the government made those indications.

A year ago, the same union staged a strike that dragged on for two weeks closing Finland’s ports. They were striking for higher wages as part of the new collective agreement. They ultimately won a 25-month agreement with a more than six percent wage increase, but not before they brought Finnish trade to a halt.

The 2023 strike impacted Finland’s 10 major ports, including Helsinki, Hamina-Kotka, Hanko, Rauma, and Turku. With as much as 90 percent of the country’s trading moving by sea and the ports, the Finnish Port Operators Association estimated that each day of the strike would impact more than $300 million in foreign trade.

With no apparent progress in talks to head off the strike, Maersk and other shipping lines warned customers that they expected all operations would be impacted.