Monday, September 30, 2024

 

Cause-specific mortality rates among the US Black population


JAMA Network





The Study:

 This study highlights that progress in reducing excess mortality rates among Black individuals was made primarily in reducing deaths from cancer and cardiovascular diseases among males and from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes among females. However, this progress was stalled or reversed by an increase in mortality from external causes, such as assaults and accidents, as well as a stagnation in advancements against cardiovascular diseases during periods without decrease.


Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Harlan M. Krumholz, MD, SM, email harlan.krumholz@yale.edu.

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/

(doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.36402)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

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About JAMA Network Open: JAMA Network Open is an online-only open access general medical journal from the JAMA Network. On weekdays, the journal publishes peer-reviewed clinical research and commentary in more than 40 medical and health subject areas. Every article is free online from the day of publication. 

 

New tool can assess elderly dogs’ frailty




North Carolina State University





Researchers from North Carolina State University have developed a tool that can aid owners and veterinarians in assessing an elderly dog’s frailty. The tool – when coupled with simple assessments of body and muscle condition by the veterinarian – can predict likelihood of short-term (within six months) mortality and provide important data to owners faced with treatment and quality-of-life decisions for their aging dogs.

“In humans, we classify frailty as a physical or physiological state associated with loss of strength, slow walking speed, weight loss, exhaustion and reduced activity – which is what happens as your body starts winding down,” says Natasha Olby, Dr. Kady M. Gjessing and Rahna M. Davidson Distinguished Chair in Gerontology at NC State.

“In humans, frailty correlates with disability and mortality, and we have tools for assessing frailty in humans. However, this is an emerging field in dogs and there is a need for screening tools that can be applied easily.”

Olby is the primary investigator for NC State’s canine neuro-aging program, which seeks to understand the mechanisms involved in the canine aging process.

“We were motivated to develop a frailty phenotype, or set of common characteristics, in part because we think frailty may be altering outcomes for some of the dogs in our clinical trials,” Olby says. “The other motivation is that we see frail dogs every day – and the condition is not well-described.

“One of the most common questions veterinarians receive from owners trying to decide on treatments for elder dogs is, ‘How long will my dog live?’” Olby says. “If we could develop a phenotype that is reasonably predictive of short-term mortality, it could be helpful for owners who are faced with treatment decisions.”

The researchers developed a frailty screening questionnaire that asked owners questions about their dog’s nutrition status (which included overall body condition and appetite), exhaustion/energy level, mobility, muscle condition and social activity. These five “domains” are also used in human frailty assessments.

They then validated the tool against two dog populations: 39 dogs that were current participants in Olby’s neuro-aging study, and 198 dogs aged 10 years and older who were not enrolled in the neuro-aging study.

Dogs that were classified as impaired in three of the five domains were considered frail and were twice as likely to die within six months as dogs that were not frail.

“Of course, the reality is that you never really know how long a dog will live, but this questionnaire coupled with body and muscle condition scores is good at predicting six-month mortality,” Olby says. “And it is an easily deployable screening tool that doesn’t require any lab work – a veterinarian can assess body and muscle condition with simple palpation.”

The researchers are hopeful that this screening tool will lead to more complete phenotypes for canine frailty.

“It is definitely still a work in progress, but this screen is a simple tool that owners and veterinarians can use as a starting place for discussing care options for elderly dogs,” Olby says.

The work appears in Frontiers in Veterinary Science and was supported by the Kady M. Gjessing and Rahna M. Davidson Distinguished Chair in Gerontology. Olby is the corresponding author. Former NC State postdoctoral researcher Katharine Russell is the first author. Former resident Gilad Fefer, current resident Alejandra Mondino and NC State professors Emily Griffith, Korinn Saker and Margaret Gruen also contributed to the work.

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Note to editors: An abstract follows.

“Establishing a clinically applicable frailty phenotype screening tool for aging dogs”

DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2024.1335463

Authors: Katharine J. Russell, Alejandra Mondino, Gilad Fefer, Emily Griffith, Korinn Saker, Margaret E. Gruen and Natasha J. Olby, North Carolina State University
Published: Sept. 24, 2024 in Frontiers in Veterinary Science

Abstract:
Introduction: Frailty is a well-defined clinical syndrome in humans caused by accumulation of impairments which result in loss of reserve capacity and increased vulnerability to disability, dependence, and death. Dogs are of particular interest in studies of frailty due to the similarities they share with people in their environment, lifestyles, and age-related diseases.
Materials and methods: The aim of this study was to develop a frailty phenotype, based on previously validated measures in dogs, which could be easily applied in the clinical setting, and which was predictive of all-cause, short term (6-month) mortality. The study was conducted in two phases. In phase 1, a retrospective cohort of 51 dogs was used to identify and evaluate potential measures for the five domains of frailty. This information was then used to develop a simple frailty phenotype based on examination findings and owner directed questions. In phase 2 of the study, this phenotype was evaluated in a prospective cohort of 198 dogs aged 9years or older from multiple different specialty and primary care services to determine how the phenotype performed across a diverse canine population.
Results: The developed frailty phenotype was predictive of all-cause, short-term mortality independent of age, sex, or weight (hazard ratio = 4.71; 95% CI, 2.66–8.8). Of the covariates evaluated only breed was significant, with purebred dogs having 1.85 times higher mortality than mixed breed dogs (95% CI, 1.04– 3.31). The frailty phenotype performed similarly across all hospital services from which patients were enrolled.
Conclusion: Based on these findings, the defined frailty phenotype represents a valuable screening tool for early risk identification and intervention and can aid in clinical decision making for owners and veterinarians. Additionally, it will promote further research into the understanding and treatment of frailty in dogs.

 

NIH awards ADA Forsyth over $6 million to design AI-driven amalgam replacement for dental restoratives



Forsyth Institute
Before and after image of healing tooth enamel 

image: 

SEM images of self-healing dental composites: before and after heal. Self-healing composites may autonomously repair microcracks that is hard to detect and almost impossible to repair manually.

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Credit: Image courtesy of Jirun Sun, PhD, ADA Forsyth Institute




The ADA Forsyth Institute (AFI) has been awarded a $6.2 million grant from the National Institute of Oral and Craniofacial Research (NIDCR). Funded under the highly competitive RM1 mechanism, this five-year award will support a groundbreaking project to develop next-generation smart materials for dental fillings using physics-based artificial intelligence (AI). This innovation marks one of the first applications of AI for basic research in oral health, aimed at accelerating the testing and development process.

Next-Generation Smart Material

The new dental composite will feature self-healing and antimicrobial properties, incorporating nanofillers that react to biological signals. “Imagine you have a crack developing in the filling,” said biomaterials expert Jirun Sun, PhD, the contact principal investigator (PI) leading the multi-PI team.

“The material will detect that change and repair the crack. Or if your mouth has a lot of acid that lowers the pH, which is known to break down traditional composites and tooth structure, the material will counteract the acid. The smart material will automatically respond to changing conditions in each individual patient’s mouth.”

Transdisciplinary Effort Maximizing AI Capabilities

The transdisciplinary team of scientists will integrate experiments with a physics-based model of testing and data-driven simulations as part of the material design and evaluation of these complex and dynamic materials. The AFI team has partnered with Optimuos, a digital engineering firm specializing in digital twin technologies, to build the AI driven solution.

“Without this approach, the number of parameters that we must test would have taken decades to complete,” said Dr. Sun. “Incorporating artificial intelligence and virtual lab simulations into the physical material development process, based on well-defined laws of physics and chemistry, will accelerate our goal of transforming personalized dental care.”

Ben Wu, DDS, PhD, the Chief Scientific Officer and Chief Operating Officer of AFI, emphasized the project’s broader implications. “This grant is the first step to leveraging AI and deep learning to facilitate and accelerate research. This approach can be applied to the other cutting edge innovative research at AFI, from managing drug-resistant biofilm to aberrant immunological host response, and much more.  Our institute is well positioned to leverage the new tools of bioengineering, AI and data science to accelerate discovery and impact oral health.”

Applications in Dentistry

The new material will be optimized to provide a viable replacement for amalgam, a cost effective and durable solution that is slowly being phased down around the world. Although alternative restorative filling materials currently exist, they may need to be replaced more often and can be more expensive to use. The scientists are designing these new materials to be easy to use and accessible to everyone.

“AFI scientists aren’t just creating something more durable, they’re creating a completely different generation of dental composite,” said Dr. Raymond Cohlmia, Executive Director of the American Dental Association (ADA) and the Chair of AFI’s board of directors. “This smart material could revolutionize dental care and drastically improve patient outcomes. The future of dental restorations – and so much more – is happening now. I’m so proud that AFI is at the forefront.”

Joining Dr. Sun on this exciting, multiple PI award are Drs. Felicitas Bidlack, Yulong Zhang, Xuesong He, and Ben Wu from AFI; Dr. Leyla Mirmomen, Chief Executive Officer at Optimuos; and Dr. Pirouz Kavehpour, Professor at University of California, Los Angeles, and Chief Scientist at Optimuos. 

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About the ADA Forsyth Institute

The ADA Forsyth Institute was founded in 1910 as the Forsyth Dental Infirmary for Children (later, the Forsyth Institute), to provide dental care to the disadvantaged children of Boston. While continuing to serve children in need, yet recognizing the ultimate goal is to prevent dental disease, the Institute in 1915 began to focus on scientific research and is today the world’s leader in oral health research. In October of 2023, the Institute joined with the American Dental Association to form the ADA Forsyth Institute, a 501(c)(3) entity dedicated to improving people’s oral and overall health and powering the profession of dentistry through cutting-edge basic research, creative translational science, innovative clinical technologies, and global public health outreach. Consistent with the Institute’s founding mission, the ADA ForsythKids mobile dental program continues to serve children in need.

 

Expert panel calls for nutrition competencies in US medical education



Group of medical and nutrition experts recommends 36 competencies to address concern that many U.S. physicians are not trained to advise patients about nutrition and food choices.




Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health




Key points:

  • There are no nationally required nutrition competencies within medical education in the U.S. In that context, researchers surveyed a professionally diverse panel of medical and nutrition experts to reach a consensus on proposed nutrition competencies for medical students and physician trainees, as well as recommendations for how to evaluate them. 
  • The proposed competencies directly respond to Congress’ bipartisan resolution H. Res. 1118, which calls for “meaningful physician and health professional education on nutrition and diet.”
  • According to the researchers, incorporating competencies into medical education has the potential to improve human and planetary health by equipping physicians with the knowledge they’ve long needed to advise patients about nutrition and food choices.

Boston, MA—A professionally-diverse panel of medical and nutrition experts have proposed a set of recommended nutrition competencies for medical students and physician trainees. The study addresses a longstanding concern that most physicians in the U.S. are not equipped to advise patients about nutrition and food choices. 

The proposed competencies are a call to action in response to the U.S. House of Representatives’ bipartisan resolution H. Res. 1118, which calls for “meaningful physician and health professional education on nutrition and diet.” The resolution cited concerns about the increasing prevalence of diet-related diseases and Medicare costs, which totaled $800 billion in 2019. Congressional annual financial support for medical trainees in U.S. hospitals was estimated at $16.2 billion in 2020.

“It’s shocking that there are no nationally required nutrition competencies within medical education,” said lead author David Eisenberg, adjunct associate professor of nutrition and director of culinary nutrition at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “This is a surprising and important gap, considering the epidemics of obesity, diabetes, and other diet-related chronic diseases in this country, as well as their ever-increasing financial and societal costs. My guess is that most patients assume their doctors are trained to advise them about nutrition and food choices, but this has simply not been part of their required training.”

The study will be published September 30 in JAMA Network Open.

The researchers—Eisenberg, Alexis Cole at Tufts University, and Edward Maile and Matthew Salt, both at U.K.-based consultancy Sprink Ltd.—compiled a list of 354 nutrition competencies included in the academic literature and recruited an expert panel made up of 37 medical educators, nutrition scientists, practicing physicians, medical residency directors, and registered dietician nutritionists from across the country. Over the course of four rounds, the panelists ranked the competencies and provided comments and ideas.

After analyzing the survey results, the researchers identified 36 nutrition competencies on which the panel had reached consensus and recommended for undergraduate and graduate medical school and training. The competencies span six categories: foundational nutritional knowledge (“Demonstrates knowledge of the nutritional content of foods including the major dietary sources of macronutrients and micronutrients); assessment and diagnosis (“Assesses the nutritional status of a patient with a brief diet and food history/questionnaire, anthropometric measurements, and appropriate laboratory tests”); communication skills (“Listens carefully, compassionately, and non-judgmentally while taking a nutrition history”); public health (“Demonstrates knowledge of public health nutrition, including the social determinants of health, and how it can reduce the burden of disease and improve access to adequate, healthy food”); collaborative support and treatment for specific conditions (“Works with other health professionals to deliver a multidisciplinary approach to nutrition care”); and indications for referral (“Makes appropriate referrals to a range of professionals to support the patient to achieve their health goals”).

In addition, 97% of the panelists called for formal nutrition testing on licensing and certification exams for future physicians. Other highlights included:

  • 95% of panelists agreed that institutions should report on their teaching relating to nutrition competencies.
  • 92% agreed that surveys of students should be used to assess their competency and confidence in this area.
  • 73% of panelists recommended a competency related to the environmental and planetary health impact of food choices for inclusion.

The research team also identified 12 possible gaps that were not addressed in the recommended competencies, as these were not identified in a review of the existing medical literature. These included topics such as when and how to discuss glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) agonists (anti-obesity drugs) with patients and how to responsibly use artificial intelligence to provide patients practical advice about nutrition and food choices. 

“The competencies represent the greatest efforts thus far to address H. Res. 1118, and their adoption will undoubtedly significantly enhance public health,” Eisenberg said. “Ensuring physicians are equipped with the necessary knowledge to advise patients in practical terms about nutrition and food choices will increase referrals to and collaboration with a range of nutrition experts and programs, promote health equity, and improve planetary health.”

The researchers noted that the competencies’ international generalizability may be limited, given that the panel was U.S.-based. However, the consensus-building approach through which the recommended competencies were developed could inform similar efforts by medical educators and regulators worldwide, as nutrition-related health challenges and limited nutrition training for physicians are global problems.

The study was funded by the Vitamix Foundation, the David R. and Margaret C. Clare Foundation, the Shaich Family Foundation, and the Ardmore Institute of Health. These philanthropic grants were provided to, and administered by, the Teaching Kitchen Collaborative.

“Proposed Nutrition Competencies for Medical Students and Physician Trainees,” David M. Eisenberg, Alexis Cole, Edward J. Maile, Matthew Salt, Elizabeth Armstrong, Emily Broad Leib, Trevor Findley, Jennifer Massa, Jaclyn Albin, Meredith Alston, Hope Barkoukis, Fred Buckhold, Robert Danoff, Helen Delichatsios, Stephen Devries, Stephanie Dewar, Jennifer DiRocco, Christopher P. Duggan, Kofi Essel, Elizabeth Frates, Pamela Hansen, Aviad Haramati, Timothy S. Harlan, Michelle E. Hauser, David Leopold, Joanna Lewis, Amy Locke, Joshua R. Mann, Auden McClure, John Wesley McWhorter, Saroj Misra, Tiffany Murano, Amy Oxentenko, Stacey Pierce-Talsma, Stacy Potts, Jo Marie Reilly, Melinda Ring, Suzanne Sampang, Kate Shafto, Linda Shiue, Wendelin Slusser, Terri Stone, Karen Studer, Olivia Thomas, Jennifer Trilk, Laura Edgar, JAMA Network Open, September 30, 2024, doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.35425

Visit the Harvard Chan School website for the latest newspress releases, and events from our Studio.

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Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health brings together dedicated experts from many disciplines to educate new generations of global health leaders and produce powerful ideas that improve the lives and health of people everywhere. As a community of leading scientists, educators, and students, we work together to take innovative ideas from the laboratory to people’s lives—not only making scientific breakthroughs, but also working to change individual behaviors, public policies, and health care practices. Each year, more than 400 faculty members at Harvard Chan School teach 1,000-plus full-time students from around the world and train thousands more through online and executive education courses. Founded in 1913 as the Harvard-MIT School of Health Officers, the School is recognized as America’s oldest professional training program in public health.

Trends in female physicians entering high-compensation specialties


JAMA Network




About The Study: 

This study found that female physicians were underrepresented among residents entering high-compensation specialties compared with non–high-compensation specialties. 

However, while high-compensation surgical specialties experienced a steady increase in the proportion of female applicants and matriculants over time, high-compensation nonsurgical specialties experienced an overall decrease in the proportion of female applicants and no significant changes in the proportion of female matriculants.


Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Karina Pereira-Lima, PhD, MSc, email pereiral@med.umich.edu.

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/

(doi:10.1001/jama.2024.17516)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

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Embed this link to provide your readers free access to the full-text article This link will be live at the embargo time https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/10.1001/jama.2024.17516?guestAccessKey=82ebefa9-095e-4e96-956c-e36e9ee3aebf&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=093024



Female representation improves in high paying medical specialties




Michigan Medicine - University of Michigan




Despite continuing overall inequities, the number of female residents matriculating to high paying medical specialties has increased with a notable rise in women entering high compensation surgical fields.  

University of Michigan researchers first reported these findings in “Trends in female physicians entering high-compensation specialties, 2008 to 2022,” published in JAMA

While women constituted 55% of incoming United States medical students, there exists a significant pay gap between male and female doctors, driven in part by overrepresentation of men in high paying specialties. 

Lately, however, the proportion of female matriculants to high compensation residency specialties has increased, from 32.7% in 2008 to 40.8% in 2022.  

Matriculation to high compensation surgical specialties drove that increase, with women representing 28.8% of applicants in 2008 and 40.8% in 2022.  

Over the same 14-year period, the number of female applicants to non-surgical, high compensation specialties dropped from 36.8% to 34.3%. 

“That programs have been successful in attracting more women to enter surgery despite low levels of intervention is surprising and great to see,” said Amy S. B. Bohnert, Ph.D., M.H.S., professor in U-M’s department of Anesthesiology and senior author on the paper. 

“I think it's encouraging that this trend could eventually lead to parity, since women make up more than half of people going into medicine now.” 

The research team was motivated to investigate these trends after noticing the proportion of women now entering the medical profession and continuing inequities in pay compared to men.  

In addition to now constituting the majority of incoming medical students, women still make up a larger percentage of people entering non-high-compensation specialties. (53.0% in 2008 and 53.3% in 2022.) 

“There’s been a lot of research on disparities in physician salaries and the underrepresentation of women in high compensation specialties among practicing physicians. But with more women entering medicine, we wanted to see if that trend was also happening with those starting their training in these highly compensated specialties,” said Karina Pereira-Lima, Ph.D., research fellow in the U-M Department of Neurology and lead author of the paper. 

“There is also prior research showing that women tend to be underrepresented in surgical residencies, but it looks like this isn’t just a surgical issue–it’s something we’re seeing across high-paying specialties in general.” 

One possible explanation for the relative increase in female surgical residents is the growing spotlight on the issue through both research and social media campaigns such as #ILookLikeASurgeon in 2015, which attempted to combat stereotypes of surgery as a male specialty by celebrating women in the field.  

The researchers behind the paper highlight the need for future investigations to determine to what extent, if at all, these efforts explain current application trends. 

“An important aspect of the trend that we identified is that it seems to be driven by more women applying to surgical specialties, rather than increased acceptance rates,” said Srijan Sen, M.D., Ph.D., principal investigator of the Intern Health Study and director of the Eisenberg Family Depression Center.  

“Going forward it will be important to identify why the specialties and programs that drove the trend have been successful in increasing applications from women.” 

Another potential future area of study is the ability of high-compensation specialties to retain and support women as they progress through the career pathway. While the number of female residents entering high-compensation specialties has increased, the overall numbers remain far below parity, a reality showing that much work is still needed to achieve gender equality in physician representation and compensation across different specialties.  

 

From embers to crisis: the expanding threat of wildfires under global warming




Higher Education Press
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Credit: Guochao Chen , Minghao Qiu , Peng Wang , Yuqiang Zhang , Drew Shindell , Hongliang Zhang





Globally, wildfires are on the rise, driven by climate change, which exacerbates droughts and high temperatures. These fires contribute significantly to carbon emissions and particulate matter (PM2.5), with severe consequences for both climate stability and public health. While some regions have experienced a decline in burned areas, high-latitude regions are facing more intense wildfire events. In response to these challenges, there is a pressing need for in-depth research to understand and mitigate the impacts of wildfires.

study (DOI: 10.1007/s11783-024-1890-6) led by researchers from Fudan University, published on July 19, 2024, in Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering examines global wildfire trends and impacts over the past two decades. The study analyzes data on burned areas, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and PM2.5 across continents, highlighting the urgent need to address the escalating threats posed by wildfires, especially in high-latitude regions where climate change has significantly intensified fire activity.

The study reveals that wildfires globally burn approximately 3%–4% of land each year, leading to massive emissions of greenhouse gases and pollutants. Although global burned areas have generally declined, particularly in Africa, high-latitude regions in Asia and North America have seen increased variability and severe wildfire events in recent years. The research points to climate change as a key driver of these trends, particularly in high-latitude regions. These fires are major sources of CO2 and PM2.5, contributing to climate warming and posing significant health risks, especially in poorly managed areas. The study highlights the need for targeted research and effective management strategies to mitigate the impacts of wildfires.

Dr. Hongliang Zhang, a leading researcher, stated, “Our findings underscore the urgent need for global collaboration to combat the rising threat of wildfires. The variability in wildfire activity across continents reflects the complex interactions between climate change, vegetation, and human factors. By focusing on high-risk areas and improving fire management practices, we can reduce the severe health and environmental impacts of these fires.” Dr. Zhang’s comments emphasize the importance of targeted efforts to manage and mitigate wildfire risks.

The study’s findings have significant implications for shaping future wildfire management strategies. By identifying the key drivers of wildfire activity and their health impacts, the research provides a solid foundation for developing more effective policies and practices. These insights are vital for policymakers, environmental agencies, and public health organizations in planning and implementing measures to reduce wildfire risks and enhance resilience in vulnerable regions. The study also highlights the ongoing need for research to adapt to the evolving challenges posed by climate-driven wildfires.

 

Online misinformation most likely to be believed by ideological extremists, new study shows



Findings reveal the importance of quickly addressing the spread of falsehoods



New York University






Political observers have been troubled by the rise of online misinformation—a concern that has grown as we approach Election Day. However, while the spread of fake news may pose threats, a new study finds that its influence is not universal. Rather, users with extreme political views are more likely than are others to both encounter and believe false news. 

“Misinformation is a serious issue on social media, but its impact is not uniform,” says Christopher K. Tokita, the lead author of the study, conducted by New York University’s Center for Social Media and Politics (CSMaP).

The findings, which appear in the journal PNAS Nexus, also indicate that current methods to combat the spread of misinformation are likely not viable—and that the most effective way to address it is to implement interventions quickly and to target them toward users most likely to be vulnerable to these falsehoods.

“Because these extreme users also tend to see misinformation early on, current social media interventions often struggle to curb its impact—they are typically too slow to prevent exposure among those most receptive to it,” adds Zeve Sanderson, executive director of CSMaP. 

Existing methods used to assess the exposure to and impact of online misinformation rely on measuring views or shares. However, these fail to fully capture the true impact of misinformation, which depends not just on spread, but also on whether users actually believe the false information.

To address this shortcoming, Tokita, Sanderson, and their colleagues developed a novel approach using Twitter (now “X”) data to estimate not just how many users were exposed to a specific news story, but also how many were likely to believe it. 

“What is particularly innovative about our approach in this research is that the method combines social media data tracking the spread of both true news and misinformation on Twitter with surveys that assessed whether Americans believed the content of these articles,” explains Joshua A. Tucker, a co-director of CSMaP and an NYU professor of politics, one of the paper’s authors. “This allows us to track both the susceptibility to believing false information and the spread of that information across the same articles in the same study.”

The researchers captured 139 news articles (November 2019-February 2020)—102 of which were rated as true and 37 of which were rated as false or misleading by professional fact-checkers—and calculated the spread of those articles across Twitter from the time of their initial publication. 

This sample of popular articles was drawn from five types of news streams: mainstream left-leaning publications, mainstream right-leaning publications, low-quality left-leaning publications, low-quality right-leaning publications, and low-quality publications without an apparent ideological lean. To establish the veracity of the articles, each article was sent to a team of professional fact checkers within 48 hours of publication. The fact-checkers rated each article as “true” or “false/misleading.” 

To estimate exposure to and belief in these articles, the researchers combined two types of data. First, they used Twitter data to identify which users on Twitter were potentially exposed to each of the articles; they also estimated each potentially exposed user’s ideological placement on a liberal-conservative scale by using an established method that infers a user’s ideology from the prominent news and political accounts they follow. 

Second, to determine the likelihood that these exposed users would believe an article to be true, they deployed real-time surveys as each article spread online. These surveys asked Americans who are habitual internet users to classify the article as true or false and to provide demographic information, including their ideology. From this survey data, the authors calculated the proportion of individuals within each ideological category that believed the article to be true. With these estimates for each article, they could calculate the number of Twitter users exposed and receptive to believing the article to be true. 

Overall, the findings showed that while false news reached users across the political spectrum, those with more extreme ideologies (both conservative and liberal) were far more likely to both see and believe it. Crucially, these users, who are receptive to misinformation, tend to encounter it early in its spread through Twitter.  

The research design also allowed the study’s authors to simulate the impact of different types of interventions designed to stop the spread of misinformation. One takeaway from these simulations was that the earlier interventions were applied, the more likely they were to be effective. Another was that “visibility” interventions—whereby a platform makes flagged misinformation posts less likely to appear in users’ feeds—appeared more likely to reduce the reach of misinformation to susceptible users than did interventions aimed at making users less likely to share misinformation.

“Our research indicates that understanding who is likely to be receptive to misinformation, not just who is exposed to it, is key to developing better strategies to fight misinformation online,” advises Tokita, now a data scientist in the tech industry.

The study’s other authors included Kevin Aslett, a CSMaP postdoctoral researcher and University of Central Florida professor at the time of the study who now works as a researcher in the tech industry, William P. Godel, an NYU doctoral student at the time of the study and now a researcher in the tech industry, as well as CSMaP researchers Jonathan Nagler and Richard Bonneau.

The research was supported by a graduate research fellowship from the National Science Foundation (DGE1656466).

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