Tuesday, December 10, 2024

104 journalists killed in 2024, over half in Gaza: press group

After the Middle East, the second most dangerous region for journalists was Asia with 20 killed, including six in Pakistan, five in Bangladesh and three in India.


55 Palestinian media workers were killed in 2024 / Photo: AA

This year has been "particularly deadly" for journalists with 104 killed worldwide, over half of them being in Gaza, the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) said Tuesday.

The toll for 2024 is down on the 129 deaths in 2023 but still makes it "one of the worst years" on record, IFJ general secretary Anthony Bellanger told AFP.

According to the figures collated by the press group 55 Palestinian media workers were killed in 2024 in the face of Israel's offensive in Gaza.

"Since the start of the war on 7 October 2023, at least 138 Palestinian journalists have been killed," the federation said.

Bellanger condemned the "massacre that is happening before the eyes of the world".

He said that "many journalists were targeted" in Gaza deliberately, while others had found themselves "in the wrong place, at the wrong time" in the fighting.

In Europe, the war in Ukraine continued to claim journalist victims with four killed in 2024.

The IFJ's count for the number of journalists killed is typically far higher than that of Reporters Without Borders, due to different counting methods.

In 2023 Reporters Without Borders said 54 journalists and two collaborators were killed in the course of their work. The NGO will publish its own figure for 2024 later this week.
SOURCE: AFP

The Fall of the House of Assad


December 10, 2024
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Photograph Source: Krokodyl – CC BY 3.0

Remember the Biden pier off Gaza’s coast? It is perhaps the best metaphor for Genocide Joe’s failed foreign policy  (Near East and Ukraine). The takeover in Syria is an equally failed  Biden EU foreign policy, a policy that is dictated by Netanyahu’s Zionist fetish to “create a new Middle East.”  Credit the Brits and the French for their decision way back in 1917 when, at the Treaty of Versailles, they redrew the entire map of Middle East to suit their geostrategic interests (oil and access to their colonies).  The post-1917 superficial boundaries of the entire Middle East were drawn without regard to ethnic/religious/cultural sensitivities.

The Iraq/Kuwait/Syrian/Lebanese/ Iran/ Egypt/Palestine/Israel/ Kurdish wars that ensued can, in great measure, be traced to all the British and French partitions. With the emergence of a powerful America in the post-WWII era and the creation, in 1948, of the state of Israel on historic Palestine and the expulsion of 750,000 people, the US  became the hegemonic warlord of a region valued solely for its oil and as a buffer to Communism.  Since 1948, the never-seriously-addressed  Palestine issue and the never-fulfilled promise of a Palestinian state festered and burst on October 7, 2023. And the world has never been the same.  And just as the neocons talked bush into invading Iraq, Syria has been in Israel’s crosshairs. The fall of the House of Assad was, in great measure, brought on by their tyranny and brutality – thus adding yet another act to the ongoing sardonic drama called the Middle East. And in the shuffle, Palestine will be completely wiped off the map.

In 1917, the Brits and the French planted vile colonial seeds, the bitter fruit of which have become seasonal harvests of never-ending wars. That the Machiavellian Brit and the French schemed is a given; that it was only a matter of time for Assad to fall is also given; that, like Afghanistan post Russia’s withdrawal, the Islamists will take over is a strong given; that UAE, Turkey, Israel, and the US are complicit in this uprising is also given; that Netanyahu’s designs for a new Middle East, with Biden’s (US and EU) blessings, is a given (including Blinken, Hochstein, Fine, and all their neocon buddies at State) is a given; that, because the Sunni theocrats of the Gulf cannot stand the Alawites of Syria is a given – hence their support for the rebels; that the secular Iraqi, Libyan, and Syrian regimes have been in the crosshairs of Israel, the US, and the Gulf despots is a given (Hillary on Libya: “We came,  we saw, he died”; that Arab leaders with megalomaniac tendencies fight/fought hard to hold on to power (hence their demise) is given.  That Biden’s judgment is impaired because of cognitive dissonance is a strong likely given.

The Gulf despots are not immune; they, too, will be engulfed in the same fire (they helped start) and fervor that is blazing through Syria.

One of the most chilling movie scenes I’ve ever witnessed is from Zorba the Greek. A dying woman is surrounded by a roomful of her relatives and friends. Every time she appears to be taking her last breath, the black-clad women rise in unison, only to be seated again. After a long wait, and as soon as the woman gives up the ghost, all civility and piety give way to scrambling around and the pilfering of her belongings from her dresser, nightstand, and closet.

Israel, the US, the EU, the Islamists of every stripe, and especially the theocrats and dictators the Arab world are awaiting the outcome of this cataclysmic event to lay claim to Bilad al-Sham (Syria), the heart and soul of Arab nationalism.

Raouf J. Halaby is a Professor Emeritus of English and Art. He is a writer, photographer, sculptor, an avid gardener, and a peace activist. halabys7181@outlook.com

Syria’s rebels work to form government, restore order after Assad ouster

With the mood in Damascus still celebratory, Assad’s prime minister, Mohammed Jalali, on Monday handed power to the rebel-led Salvation Government.


An armed rebel stands guard in front of an official building in Damascus, Syria, 9 December 2024. [EPA-EFE/HASAN BELAL]
Dec 10, 2024

The lightning overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad left Syrians, countries in the region and world powers nervous on Tuesday (10 December) about what comes next as the rebel alliance took its first steps in a government transition.

The United Nations Security Council met behind closed doors late on Monday, and diplomats said they were still in shock at how quickly Assad's overthrow unfolded over 12 days, after a 13-year civil war that was locked in stalemate for years.

"Everyone was taken by surprise, everyone, including the members of the council. So we have to wait and see and watch ... and evaluate how the situation will develop," Russian UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told reporters after the body met.

Russia played a major role in supporting Assad's government and helping it fight the rebels. The Syrian leader fled Damascus for Moscow on Sunday, ending more than 50 years of brutal rule by his family.

Losing Syria is Putin's 'personal defeat', experts say

Russia will try to negotiate with Syrian rebels to maintain military bases and influence in the Middle East, experts say.

With the mood in Damascus still celebratory, Assad's prime minister, Mohammed Jalali, on Monday agreed to hand power to the rebel-led Salvation Government, an administration based in rebel-held territory in northwest Syria.

The main rebel commander Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, met with Jalali and Vice President Faisal Mekdad to discuss the transitional government, a source familiar with the discussions told Reuters. Jalali said the handover could take days to carry out.

Al Jazeera television reported the transitional authority would be headed by Mohamed al-Bashir, who has headed the Salvation Government.

The steamroller advance of the militia alliance headed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, was a generational turning point for the Middle East.

The civil war that began in 2011 killed hundreds of thousands, caused one of the biggest refugee crises of modern times and left cities bombed to rubble, countryside depopulated and the economy hollowed out by global sanctions.

But the rebel alliance has not communicated plans for Syria's future, and there is no template for such a transition in the fractious region.

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday, partly on concerns that instability in Syria, which is not a major oil producer, could raise regional tensions, analysts said.

"This is an incredible moment for the Syrian people," Deputy US Ambassador to the UN Robert Wood said in New York. "Now we're really focused right now on trying to see where the situation goes. Can there be a governing authority in Syria that respects the rights and dignities of the Syrian population?"

The US was seeking ways to engage with Syrian rebel groups and is reaching out to partners in the region such as Turkey to start informal diplomacy, Washington said.

Qatari diplomats spoke with HTS on Monday, an official briefed on the developments told Reuters, as regional states race to open contact with the group.
'Freedom, equality, rule of law'Some insurgent fighters who milled about the capital on Monday, clustering in the central Umayyad Square, expressed hope a civilian administration would soon be running the country.

"We want the state and security forces to be in charge," said Firdous Omar, a fighter who intends to resume farming in provincial Idlib.

Golani has vowed to rebuild Syria, and HTS has spent years trying to soften its image to reassure foreign nations and minority groups within Syria.

But fears of reprisals remained. HTS said it will not hesitate to hold security and army officers involved in torturing the Syrian people accountable, describing them as criminals and murderers.

"We will release a list that includes the names of the most senior officials involved in the torturing of the Syrian people," Golani said in a statement. "Rewards will be offered to those who will provide information about senior army and security officers involved in war crimes."

HTS is designated as a terrorist organisation by many states and the UN, and its governing credentials are uncertain.

"Syrians are looking forward to establishing a state of freedom, equality, rule of law, democracy, and we will join efforts to rebuild our country, to rebuild what was destroyed, and to rebuild the future, better future of Syria," Syria's UN Ambassador Koussay Aldahhak told reporters.

There were tentative signs of a return to order. Syria's banks will reopen on Tuesday, and the oil ministry called on all employees in the sector to head to work on Tuesday, adding that protection would be provided to ensure their safety.

In one of many challenges facing Syria, Israel seized a buffer zone in the country's south, a move condemned by Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia said the move would "ruin Syria's chances of restoring security."

Israel said its airstrikes would carry on for days but told the UN Security Council that it was not intervening in Syria's conflict. It said it had taken "limited and temporary measures" solely to protect its security.


Syria's rebels work to form government


Syrian opposition fighters pose for a photograph as they celebrate at Umayyad Square in Aleppo, Syria, on Monday. AP


The lightning overthrow of President Bashar Al Assad left Syrians, countries in the region and world powerservous on Tuesday about what comes next as the rebel alliance took its first steps in a government transition.


The United Nations Security Council met behind closed doors late on Monday, and diplomats said they were still in shock at how quickly Assad's overthrow unfolded over 12 days, after a 13-year civil war that was locked in stalemate for years.

"Everyone was taken by surprise, everyone, including the members of the council. So we have to wait and see and watch ... and evaluate how the situation will develop," Russian UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told reporters after the body met.

Russia played a major role in supporting Assad's government and helping it fight the rebels. The Syrian leader fled Damascus for Moscow on Sunday, ending more than 50 years of brutal rule by his family.

With the mood in Damascus still celebratory, Assad's prime minister, Mohammed Jalali, on Monday agreed to hand power to the rebel-led Salvation Government, an administration based in rebel-held territory in northwest Syria.





A man walks near the Commercial Bank of Syria in Damascus on Tuesday. Reuters

The main rebel commander Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, met with Jalali and Vice President Faisal Mekdad to discuss the transitional government, a source familiar with the discussions told Reuters. Jalali said the handover could take days to carry out.

Al Jazeera television reported the transitional authority would be headed by Mohamed al-Bashir, who has headed the Salvation Government.

The steamroller advance of the militia alliance headed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, was a generational turning point for the Middle East.

The civil war that began in 2011 killed hundreds of thousands, caused one of the biggest refugee crises of modern times and left cities bombed to rubble, countryside depopulated and the economy hollowed out by global sanctions.

But the rebel alliance has not communicated plans for Syria's future, and there is no template for such a transition in the fractious region.

In an alarming development, Israel seized a buffer zone in the country's south, a move condemned by Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia said the move would "ruin Syria's chances of restoring security".



People shop at the Hamidiyeh market in the old part of Damascus on Monday. AFP



Regional security sources and officers within the now fallen Syrian army said heavy Israeli airstrikes continued against military installations and airbases across Syria overnight, destroying dozens of helicopters and jets, as well as Republican Guard assets in and around Damascus.

The rough tally of 200 raids had left nothing of the Syrian army's assets, they said.

Israel said its airstrikes would carry on for days but told the UN Security Council that it was not intervening in Syria's conflict. It said it had taken "limited and temporary measures" solely to protect its security.

'FREEDOM, EQUALITY, RULE OF LAW'

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday, partly on concerns that instability in Syria, which is not a major oil producer, could raise regional tensions, analysts said. "This is an incredible moment for the Syrian people," Deputy US Ambassador to the UN Robert Wood said in New York. "Now we're really focused right now on trying to see where the situation goes. Can there be a governing authority in Syria that respects the rights and dignities of the Syrian population?"


People in Damascus celebrate on Monday. AFP

The US was seeking ways to engage with Syrian rebel groups and is reaching out to partners in the region such as Turkey to start informal diplomacy, Washington said.

Qatari diplomats spoke with HTS on Monday, an official briefed on the developments told Reuters, as regional states race to open contact with the group.

There were tentative signs of a return to order. Syria's banks will reopen on Tuesday, and the oil ministry called on all employees in the sector to head to work on Tuesday, adding that protection would be provided to ensure their safety.

Reuters reporters saw four mini-buses arriving at the Central Bank of Syria, with employees disembarking and walking into the building for their first day of work since Assad’s fall.

"It’s a new shift, it’s a new day, a new year, a new life,” said Sumayra al-Mukli.





People flash the V for victory sign in the old part of Damascus on Monday. AFP

Golani has vowed to rebuild Syria, and HTS has spent years trying to soften its image to reassure foreign nations and minority groups within Syria.

But fears of reprisals remained. HTS said it will not hesitate to hold security and army officers involved in torturing the Syrian people accountable, describing them as criminals and murderers.

"We will release a list that includes the names of the most senior officials involved in the torturing of the Syrian people," Golani said in a statement. "Rewards will be offered to those who will provide information about senior army and security officers involved in war crimes."

HTS is designated as a terrorist organisation by many states and the UN, and its governing credentials are uncertain.

"Syrians are looking forward to establishing a state of freedom, equality, rule of law, democracy, and we will join efforts to rebuild our country, to rebuild what was destroyed, and to rebuild the future, better future of Syria," Syria's UN Ambassador Koussay Aldahhak told reporters.

Reuters



Western Countries Face Dilemma Over Syria’s Blacklisted New Rulers

Syrians wave Syrian and German flags as they rally on December 8 in Berlin to celebrate the end of Bashar al-Assad's rule.


December 10, 2024
By Ray Furlong and Abubakar Siddique


With the dust still swirling after the dramatic collapse of the Syrian government, some Western governments have hinted that they may be open to working with emerging new rulers that they currently consider to be part of a terrorist organization.

Three key European capitals have all indicated that they could change their stance on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the blacklisted Islamist militant group that swept into Damascus on December 8.

This came after comments by U.S. President Joe Biden, reflecting on how the group’s rhetoric had changed as it sought to distance itself from its previous affiliation with Al-Qaeda: "As they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions.”

President-elect Donald Trump's immediate response revealed little about how Syria policy might evolve on his watch, beyond stating simply that it is "not our fight." But his administration will also have to decide how to deal with Syria.

"I suspect there's going to be a lot of conversation about what kind of government HTS is going to form," said Fatima Ayub, a Washington-based political analyst and researcher on the Middle East and South Asia.

"Maybe we will see some dynamics like we saw with Sudan, with sanctions relief in return for normalization with Israel. So, there are a lot of big questions on the horizon, and I'm not even sure HTS necessarily has the answers [at this stage]."

It is clear the group's position as a leading player in Syria following the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad presents Western governments with a dilemma. Previously a relatively minor armed group, controlling Syria's northwestern Idlib Province, it was easy to proscribe and largely ignore.

But HTS now appears too important for that, so Western governments seem to be carefully rowing back.

France’s acting foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, told France Info radio on December 8 that HTS was "an Islamist movement” that must “demonstrate its sincere desire to rid the transition of extremism, Islamism, and jihadism." He added that an envoy would leave for Damascus this week.

Germany took a similarly equivocal line. Foreign Ministry spokesman Sebastian Fischer said moves by HTS to distance itself from its past would be judged by its treatment of civilians and ethnic and religious minorities.

In Britain, Cabinet Minister Pat McFadden said a "swift decision" would need to be made about whether to remove HTS from the government's list of designated terrorist organizations.

It is not yet clear what role HTS will play in a post-Assad Syria. But if, as seems likely, it emerges as a key player, Western governments appear keen to keep their options open.

"I think the West should deal with the new reality on the ground," said Dareen Khalifa, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group.

"They should put forward clear benchmarks for HTS, and if they meet them, they should reconsider their sanctions/designations that will only be an impediment to peace and security to post-Assad Syria."

This approach would differ to that taken toward Taliban-run Afghanistan. There, Western governments have kept their distance from an extremist group whose widespread human rights abuses and severe restrictions on women they have repeatedly condemned.

"I don't see HTS doing things like banning girls from going to school. I think they are more moderate than the Taliban," said U.S.-based analyst Ayub.

"HTS has a lot of questions to ask themselves, because fighting a war is very different than governing a country. And we saw, you know, the Taliban struggle to make this shift in Afghanistan. I still think there are a lot of open questions."

And even as Western governments appeared to shift cautiously on HTS, they have also made it clear that they take nothing on trust. Biden stressed that the group had its own "grim record of terrorism and human rights abuses."

They are also readying for a scenario in which a stable new government fails to emerge, and the threat of a resurgence by the Islamic State (IS) extremist group. On December 8, U.S. officials said warplanes carried out strikes on what they called 75 IS targets in Syria.

Another concern is stocks of chemical weapons held by the Assad government, and whose hands they might now fall into. Israel said it had struck facilities in connection with this.

The situation in Syria also has a potential impact on domestic politics in a number of countries. Millions of Syrians fled the country's devastating civil war that erupted in 2011, and questions are being asked about how many of them will wish -- or be able -- to return home.

Hundreds of them have formed lines on Syria's borders with Lebanon and Turkey. The presence of large Syrian refugee populations has been a source of tension in both countries, as it has been in Europe.

In Germany, it was announced that asylum decisions for Syrians would be frozen until the situation became clearer. A senior opposition figure called for financial incentives for Syrian refugees to return. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said it was "too soon" for such talk.


With Assad in Moscow and armed rebels taking control of Latakia governorate, what will become of Russia’s military bases in Syria?

December 9, 2024
Source: Meduza


Following the rapid overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Moscow is now facing the prospect of losing its naval and air bases in Syria. Russia’s two key bases are located in the Latakia governorate, which is already under the control of rebel groups. Syrian opposition forces have yet to take an official stance on their relationship with the Russian military contingent currently stationed in Syria. And Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has deemed it “too early” to talk about preserving the Russian bases at Khmeimim and Tartus. “This is a subject for discussion with those who will lead Syria,” he said on Monday. By all appearances, however, this “discussion” is already underway. Citing diplomats involved in talks between Russia, Iran, Turkey, and “leading Arab nations,” the Wall Street Journal reports that Moscow has “likely received commitments” that it could maintain its bases in Syria as “part of a transition.” But to what extent the Syrian rebels will honor those commitments remains unknown. Meduza breaks down what facilities Russia has in Syria and why their future is so uncertain.

Russia’s military bases in Syria

The Tartus naval base

Located 160 kilometers (99 miles) northwest of Damascus, Russia’s naval base in the port city of Tartus is officially called the 720th Material-Technical Support Point of the Russian Navy. According to Russian law, it’s the only naval facility located outside of the country (the Sevastopol Naval Base is located on internationally recognized Ukrainian territory, though Moscow hasn’t acknowledged this since its illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014).

The naval facility in Tartus was established in 1971, after Bashar al-Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, came to power. The base was meant to support the Soviet Navy’s 5th Operational Squadron in the Mediterranean, serving as a repair and replenishment point. In the 1980s, it included three floating piers, a floating workshop, storage facilities, barracks, and other amenities. After the Soviet Union’s collapse, the 5th Operational Squadron ceased to exist, but the Russian Navy retained the base at Tartus.

The bitter truth is that events in Russia affect your life, too. Help Meduza continue to bring news from Russia to readers around the world by setting up a monthly donation.

Until 2007, Russia used the base to refuel and replenish food supplies for its ships that occasionally passed through the Mediterranean Sea. Then, shortly after the Russo-Georgian War in August 2008, the naval base became the subject of talks between then-President Dmitry Medvedev and Bashar al-Assad. Soon after, the Russian Navy installed another floating pier and, in the years that followed, the base underwent planned infrastructure repairs.

After the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011, the Tartus naval base became a “window” for Russian military aid to Assad’s forces. In 2013, the Russian Navy command formed a new squadron in the Mediterranean Sea and decided to further modernize the facility at Tartus to service and repair its ships. After Russia launched its intervention in the Syrian civil war in September 2015, Tartus became a logistics center in its supply chain — the final stop for the dozens of military and civilian ships delivering cargo from Black Sea ports (also known as the “Syrian Express”).

In 2016–2017, Russia deployed S-300 and S-400 air defense missile systems and Pantsir-S1 air defence missile-gun systems to the Tartus naval base, expanded the facility’s pier, and built canteens, bathhouses, warehouses, and a helipad.

In January 2017, Russia and Syria signed a treaty allowing Moscow to expand the facility and use the Tartus base free-of-charge for 49 years. The agreement allowed Russia to keep up to 11 ships at Tartus.

The Khmeimim airfield


Russia’s other key base in Syria is the airfield at Khmeimim, located southeast of the port city of Latakia, the administrative center of the Latakia governorate. The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) built the base adjacent to the Bassel Al-Assad International Airport following Russia’s military intervention in Syria in 2015.

In the less than 10 years since, Khmeimim has become a Russian stronghold in Syria. In addition to housing some fifty planes and helicopters, thousands of troops (including Wagner Group mercenaries), and their family members, robust infrastructure has grown up around the base, including a Russian Orthodox Church, a sports complex, and a concert hall. The airfield’s two runways can even accommodate strategic bombers and heavy-class military transport aircraft.

During the active fighting in the Syrian civil war in 2015–2016, Russian fighter jets and bombers carried out tens of thousands of combat sorties from the facility, largely ensuring the Syrian government’s victory over opposition forces. Even on December 7, the eve of the al-Assad regime’s fall, Russian Aerospace Forces carried out airstrikes on rebel positions, allegedly killing more than 300 “terrorists” (the Russian authorities stopped using this term to refer to anti-government forces in Syria the very next day).

From ‘terrorists’ and ‘militants’ to ‘opposition’ and ‘new authorities’ How Russian propaganda’s rhetoric evolved as the Assad regime fell  18 hours ago

What will happen to these bases now?


The situation in Syria is evolving rapidly, so neither experts nor the Russian authorities have a clear answer to this question at the moment.

Russia reduced its military presence in Syria after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Whereas at the peak of Russia’s military intervention there were likely as many as several tens of thousands of Russian servicemen and Wagner Group mercenaries in Syria, by the fall of 2024, their number was estimated at 7,500. And it’s hard to tell how much the contingent’s technical arsenal has been reduced.

Everything that can be said with any degree of certainty was summarized in this thread on X by Dara Massicot, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Citing OSINT-analyst Frederik Van Lokeren, Massicot notes that as of December 7, most of Russia’s ships were still in or near the port at Tartus. (Following earlier reports that Russian ships had begun evacuating the base, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that this maneuver was connected to Russian naval exercises in the Mediterranean Sea.) Massicot also recalls that these vessels wouldn’t be able to return to the Black Sea, since Ankara has closed off the Turkish straits to warships amid the Russia-Ukraine war. “[T]hey would have to attempt a very long journey to the Baltic Fleet, or try to find a temporary accommodation nearby at a limited number of ports (Libya, Sudan, Algeria),” she explains.

The prospects for evacuating the Khmeimim Air Base are even less clear. “An air evacuation would take hundreds of sorties of Il-76 and An-124,” Massicot writes, referring to two types of heavy transport planes. “When Russian forces deployed to Syria in 2015, they flew almost 300 sorties in two weeks, and that was before base expansion.” That said, a significant portion of the base’s equipment and supplies were delivered by sea in due time.

RUSSIA’S HAWKS REACT TO ASSAD’S FALL

Russian z-bloggers process their shock and outrage over Assad’s overthrow in Syria
a day ago


So far, OSINT analysts have observed some signs of a possible evacuation. On December 7, satellite imagery showed that three Il-76s and one An-124 arrived at the base, and then flew to Russia via Turkish airspace. According to Massicot, these aircraft were likely taking cargo and people out of Syria, but they could have also brought in mercenaries or weapons to defend Russian bases. “Il-76s (and less often An-124) land at Khmeimim as a major transport hub, sporadic arrivals were part of normal patterns. A change signifying a major evacuation will be clear,” she says.

“What happens to the fighter aircraft will also be very telling,” Massicot continues. “If Russia thinks they are going to be attacked, they can fly out the way they got them in. They can also pack up helicopters and air defense in An-124s, too.”

The fate of the Khmeimim Air Base is also important for Moscow in terms of supplying the Africa Corps, an entity the Russian Defense Ministry created to absorb and replace Wagner Group structures on the continent. Russian military transport aircraft traveled to countries in Africa via an air corridor through the Caspian Sea, Iran, and Iraq, and then refueled at the base in Syria. The Russian military command doesn’t have any other facilities at its disposal that could replace the Khmeimim airfield in this role.

It’s worth noting that there are also separate pockets of Russian military presence at other Syrian facilities. According to pro-Kremlin war correspondents, some Russian servicemen are literally stranded at airfields and bases deep inside the country that are now surrounded by rebel forces. The amount of troops and equipment at these facilities remains unclear.

The task of evacuating Russia’s bases in Syria is objectively complicated by the situation on the ground. Rebel forces have come very close to these locations, which means transport and the bases themselves will be within range of even small arms. Without security guarantees from the supporters of the new Syrian government, any routes for evacuating personnel and assets by land, air, or sea will be unavailable.



Blog post

With Syria’s Collapse Russia’s Regional Power Play Disintegrates

By Dan White & Maxim Trudolyubov on December 9, 2024


Damascus, Syria - Poster with Syrian President Bashar Al Assad in May 2023.

Moscow’s unexpected decision not to prop up Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria this time, followed by the regime’s collapse, resonates with Russia’s Cold War–era geopolitical legacy. For decades, Syria was the linchpin of a network of Soviet-backed and Soviet-aligned regimes in the Middle East—a crucial foothold and strategic asset in Moscow’s global rivalry with the West. With Assad’s fall, the last remnant of that Cold War–era network may be on the verge of disappearing.

The future of Russia’s military bases in Syria remains uncertain, but Moscow has already begun efforts to secure some foothold in the region—with or without Assad. If Russia manages to maintain a presence, it will likely be under a new power structure dominated by regional players such as Turkey, significantly diminishing Moscow’s once dominant role. Russia’s naval and airbases in Syria are essential for Moscow’s capacity to assert its influence across the Middle East and Africa, where it is involved in distant conflicts spanning Libya, Sudan, the Central African Republic, Mali, and Niger.

Failed Attempt to Revive the Cold War Playbook

Russia’s military intervention in 2015 was a calculated attempt at a revival of its Cold War strategy, aimed at reasserting influence in the Middle East. Under the pretext of combating terrorism, Moscow deployed its air force, special forces, and military advisers, reshaping the course of the Syrian civil war. This intervention entrenched Russia’s presence in the eastern Mediterranean, securing a naval base in Tartus, leased for forty-nine years in 2017, and the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia—strategic footholds echoing Soviet-era military deployments. The mission to Syria bolstered Russia’s image as a global power, and was for years viewed as a more significant foreign policy issue by the average Russian than the conflict in Eastern Ukraine or relations with the West.

The then U.S. administration, while critical of Russia’s intervention, responded cautiously but acknowledged that both nations shared an interest in defeating ISIS, a stance for which it was criticized at the time. That limited cooperation consisted largely of the establishment of deconfliction channels to prevent accidental clashes and coordinate airspace operations.

In December 2017, Vladimir Putin struck a triumphant tone. Speaking at Khmeimim, he proclaimed that Syria had been preserved as a sovereign and independent state. He also announced the victorious completion of Russia’s main military operation in the country. “If the terrorists raise their heads again, we will deal unprecedented strikes unlike anything they have seen.” In 2024, nothing of the kind happened. In the lead-up to the capture of Damascus, Russian bombers made attempts to slow the rebel advance but fell far short of the intensive bombing campaigns seen in 2016–2017. The United States’s cautious approach seems to have proven strategically sound and ultimately justified.

“Axis of Resistance” Severely Weakened

Official Moscow’s shift on Assad has been striking. In an ironic about-face, Russian officials abruptly stopped labeling the advancing forces “terrorists” and, on the day of Assad’s fall, referred to them as the “opposition” instead. Meanwhile, Russia’s embassy in Damascus has continued to operate. In Moscow, a group of men raised the opposition flag at the Syrian embassy a day after Bashar al-Assad’s government fell. “Today, the [Syrian] embassy opened and is functioning normally under a new flag,” an embassy representative told Russia’s state news agency TASS on Monday.

Russia’s state-controlled media have quickly adapted, offering a platform to former Assad officials who have become his fiercest critics overnight. “The shameful and humiliating escape of the head of this system under the cover of night, without any sense of national responsibility to the country, confirms the need for change and awakens hope for a better future,” Syrian Ambassador to Moscow Bashar al-Jaafari said of Assad's flight from Damascus in an exclusive interview with RT Arabic.

Days before Sunday, speculation mounted that Moscow was preparing to abandon Assad. According to a Bloomberg report citing a source close to the Kremlin, by last Friday Russia had no plan to save Assad and saw little chance of one emerging as long as the Syrian president’s army continued retreating from key positions. At the time, the Russian embassy in Damascus advised Russian citizens that commercial flights were still available for those wishing to leave.

That same day, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared Tehran’s readiness to support Assad “to the extent necessary,” though he offered no specifics. Previously, Iran had only promised to “consider” requests for troop deployments—a tepid assurance from a nation that considers Syria a central pillar of its so-called axis of resistance against the West. Iran’s restraint may have been influenced by its direct and indirect clashes with U.S.-backed Israeli forces.

Assad’s growing desperation became evident when reports surfaced that he had attempted to reach out to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, first through the UAE and later through Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, in a last-ditch effort to secure support.

Remembering the Old Soviet Axis

Syria played a central role in the Cold War rivalry between the Soviet Union and the West, particularly through its conflicts with Israel. The Soviet Union provided extensive military aid to Syria during the Six-Day War in 1967, the War of Attrition, and the Yom Kippur War in 1973. Soviet advisers trained Syrian military officers, while Damascus became a key recipient of Soviet-made tanks, fighter jets, and missile systems. For nearly four decades, until the late 1980s, Syria was the greatest Middle East recipient of Soviet economic, military, and political support.

A landmark endeavor was the construction of the Tabqa Dam on the Euphrates River. Initiated in 1968 and completed in 1973, this earth-fill dam created Lake Assad, Syria’s largest reservoir, significantly enhancing the country's hydroelectric capacity and irrigation systems. This combination of military and economic support underscored Syria’s strategic importance to Moscow during the Cold War, particularly as a front-line state in the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Apart from Syria, the Soviets—at various times and to varying degrees—were involved with several key states across the Middle East and North Africa. In Egypt, in the late 1950s and 1960s, Moscow had a strategic alliance with Gamal Abdel Nasser, supplying arms, funding major infrastructure projects such as the Aswan Dam, and supporting his pan-Arab socialist agenda. In Iraq, Soviet ties strengthened after the Ba’athist Party seized power, with Moscow providing military and economic aid to successive regimes, including Saddam Hussein’s in its early years.

South Yemen became the only Marxist state in the Arab world, serving as a key ideological outpost with a bonus of privileged access to the port of Aden. In Libya, Muammar Gaddafi’s radical socialist government cultivated close ties with Moscow, receiving advanced weaponry and military training. Algeria, after winning its independence from France, also became a significant Soviet partner, benefiting from arms deals and economic assistance as it pursued a socialist development model.

The remnants of the old Soviet-backed order in the Middle East have now all but disappeared. Egypt pivoted westward after the 1970s; South Yemen ceased to exist as a separate state in 1990; Iraq fell to a U.S.-led invasion in 2003; Libya descended into chaos after Gaddafi’s ouster and assassination in 2011. A cooperation with Algeria does continue.

Assad’s regime, hollowed out by war, economic collapse, and international sanctions, depended increasingly on Russia and Iran, whose interests were never fully aligned. Russia sought geopolitical leverage; Iran pursued regional dominance through its proxy nonstate actors such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis. Unlike the oil-rich monarchies of the Gulf or emerging powers with diversified economies, Assad’s Syria rested on a fragile foundation of military rule, foreign support, and repression—elements that crumbled once its two key backers chose to withdraw their support.


Kennan Institute

The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the authors and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.


ZIONISTS INVADE FREE SYRIA

Syria war monitor records more than 300 Israeli strikes since fall of Assad


An aerial picture shows smoke billowing following airstrikes in Damascus early on Tuesday. AFP

A monitor of Syria's war said Tuesday it had recorded more than 300 Israeli strikes since rebels toppled the country's longtime ruler Bashar Al Assad over the weekend.

"The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has been able to document around 310 strikes" carried out by "Israeli warplanes" since the announcement of the fall of Assad on Sunday morning, the monitor said, while AFP journalists in the capital reported hearing loud explosions early Tuesday.

Agence France-Presse


Israeli forces advance into Syria, target 250 military sites across the country



2024-12-10

Shafaq News/ On Tuesday, Israeli tanks have begun advancing into the southern outskirts of Damascus, as reported by Syrian sources and Israeli media.

“The operations are concentrated in the buffer zone near Damascus, approximately 30 kilometers from the capital,” according to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF).

In a ground movement, Israeli forces have established full control over Mount Hermon and the Quneitra region, further solidifying their dominance over the Golan Heights. The IDF stated that “their objective is to prevent the transfer of heavy weaponry and advanced missiles to militant groups.”

Moreover, Israeli media revealed that “Israel had informed the US of its plans to deploy forces into Syrian territory without facing any opposition from the American side.”

Earlier today, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that the Israeli military has conducted approximately 250 airstrikes across Syria since the fall of President Bashar Al-Assad two days ago, destroying “key military sites” in the country.

“These airstrikes targeted most Syrian provinces, including airports, warehouses, aircraft squadrons, radars, military signal stations, weapons and ammunition depots, scientific research centers, air defense systems, an air defense installation, and warships at the port of Latakia in the northwest of the country,” SOHR added.

It also provided a detailed list of the military targets hit by the Israeli strikes, indicating that the attacks were “aimed at destroying the remaining weapons in warehouses and military units previously controlled by the former regime forces.”


Israel blitzes Syrian air force and naval bases



By Jay Jackson, Abu Dhabi News.Net
10 Dec 2024,

DAMASCUS, Syria - Israel has launched a large scale blitz of Syria's naval and air force bases, destroying scores of naval ships, planes and helicopters.

"We are taking all the actions necessary to try to ensure our security with regard to the new situation in Syria," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told journalists at his office late Monday night.

Aside from the major airstrikes taking place around the country, Israeli tanks were spotted approximately 20 km from Damascus, Israeli media reported on Tuesday morning, according to The Jerusalem Post, citing Arab media.

Defence Minister Israel Katz said the military would "destroy heavy strategic weapons throughout Syria, including surface-to-air missiles, air defence systems, surface-to-surface missiles, cruise missiles, long-range rockets, and coastal missiles," Reuters reported Tuesday

A senior Israeli official said airstrikes would persist in the coming days, the report said.

The Saudi Al-Hadath channel reported that the Israel Air Force has carried out more than 250 strikes in Syria in the past two days, about 100 of them in a few hours on Monday evening, Israel's Ynet News reported Tuesday.

Reuters, quoting two Syrian security sources, said the Israeli military had attacked major air force bases across the country and that infrastructure and dozens of helicopters and planes were destroyed during the attacks.

'Israeli fighter jets carried out airstrikes on ships of Syrian naval in Lattakia port, and warehouses of the former regime in Al-Corniche, Al-Mashirfa and Ras Shamra in Lattakia countryside, and carried out airstrikes on warehouses in Al-Somariya in Damascus,' the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights,' said in a report Tuesday.

The report said the Israel Air Force had bombed and destroyed Syrian Air Force jets at a number of airports, as well as radar systems and weapon depots.

'Airstrikes on the 112th Brigade in the area between Al-Sheikh Misken and Nawa Cities in western countryside' were carried out, while Al-Kam military warehouses in the vicinity of Mahja Town northern of Daraa wre subject to airstrikes for the seventh time Monday.

Israeli forces also targeted the 12th Brigade in Ezrae' City, the observatory's report said.

'Meanwhile, Israeli fighter jets targeted two positions in Damascus countryside, the first of which was near Sadaniya and the second was on Tel Main area,' the report added.

"The attacks carried out by the Israeli occupation government through seizing the buffer zone in the Golan Heights, and the targeting of Syrian territories by the Israeli occupation forces, confirm Israel's continued violation of the rules of international law, and its determination to sabotage Syria's chances of restoring its security, stability, and territorial integrity," a statement by the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Finance posted on X on Monday said.



Syria's Baath regime: Decades of massacres, chemical attacks leave lasting scars

From 1982 Hama massacre under Hafez al-Assad to massacres in Hama, Houla, Eastern Ghouta, and other regions by Bashar al-Assad, Syria's history is marked by numerous atrocities

Tugba Altun and Ethem Emre Ozcan |
10.12.2024 - TRT/AA



ANKARA

Decades of massacres under Syria's Baath regime and the Assad family have left an indelible mark on the country’s history, with mass killings spanning both chemical weapons and conventional attacks.

Anadolu has compiled key incidents of atrocities following the collapse of the Baath regime’s 61-year rule.

Hama massacre: Hafiz Assad’s brutality

On Feb. 2, 1982, then-Syrian leader Hafiz Assad, father of Bashar Assad, launched a brutal campaign against a Muslim Brotherhood uprising in Hama.

Under the command of Hafiz's brother Rifaat Assad, special forces bombarded the city by air and artillery for 27 days, killing tens of thousands.

According to the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR), the assault claimed at least 30,000 civilian lives, with 17,000 others still missing. Families believe many of the disappeared were killed after being detained, likely in prisons such as Palmyra.

The attacks leveled one-third of Hama's city center and destroyed 88 mosques, three churches, and numerous historical sites.

Chemical attacks: 1,630 killed

According to SNHR and the data Anadolu complied, while chemical weapons claimed around 1,630 civilian lives, hundreds of thousands were killed using barrel bombs, vacuum bombs, cluster bombs, bunker-buster bombs, and mortars.

On April 22, 2016, then-UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura estimated that the death toll had reached around 400,000, though the figure was not based on official records.

From the start of the civil war, many mass killings targeting civilians by Assad's forces were documented.

Following the start of the uprising that began in March 2011 and the subsequent civil war, Assad's forces killed 70 civilians by opening fire on demonstrators in Hama on June 3, 2011.

On Aug. 4, 2011, in one of the deadliest massacres, regime forces supported by tanks entered the city center and killed at least 130 peaceful demonstrators. On Feb. 4, 2012, regime forces killed 337 civilians, including women and children, in Homs.

2012: A year of horror

In February 2012, Homs’ Baba Amr district endured a month-long siege, with heavy tank attacks killing an estimated 4,000 people.

In March 2012, pro-regime militias, known as Shabiha, stormed the Karm al-Zeitoun neighborhood in Homs, killing 140 civilians in their homes.

On May 25, the regime massacred 108 civilians, 49 of them children, in Houla, marking another grim chapter.

Then-UN Special Envoy Kofi Annan, who was in Damascus during the Hola Massacre, said he was “shocked and horrified by the tragic incident,” describing it as "an appalling moment with profound consequences."

The UN Human Rights Council condemned the Hola Massacre on June 1, 2012.

On July 12, 2012, over 200 civilians were killed in Hama in attacks by regime forces.

Between Aug. 20 and 25, 2012, over 500 civilians were killed when regime forces besieged the Darayya suburb of Damascus and targeted it with heavy weaponry.

On Dec. 23, 2012, airstrikes by regime forces in Homs targeted a field hospital and a bakery, resulting in the deaths of over 100 civilians.

2013: The bloodiest year

In 2013, Assad forces carried out the deadliest massacres of the Syrian civil war, with most of the attacks concentrated in Aleppo.

On Jan. 11, a regime airstrike on Al-Hasakah in northeastern Syria, killed more than 50 civilians, including women and children.

On Jan. 15, a regime warplane bombed the Faculty of Architecture at Aleppo University, killing 87 students. On the same day, 102 civilians were killed across the city.

Residents of Aleppo discovered the bodies of 230 people who had been detained by regime forces in Bustan al-Qasr neighborhood. The bodies were found near the Queiq River on Jan. 29.

On Feb. 9, the Syrian army executed 40 people in a village of Aleppo. Ten days later, on Feb. 19, a missile attack on the Jabal Badro area of Aleppo killed 47 civilians.

On Feb. 27, regime forces executed 72 civilians in the village of al-Malikiyah in Aleppo. In April, the Shabiha militia massacred hundreds of civilians over four days in the Jdeidet al-Fadl region.

Also in April, regime forces and army units raided al-Sanamayn city of Daraa governorate, killing more than 100 civilians, most of them women, children, and elderly.

Footage of a mass killing on April 16, 2013, showed at least 41 civilians being executed by the Assad regime in Damascus' Tadamon neighborhood. The video emerged on April 27, 2022, causing widespread outrage.

On May 4, at least 126 civilians were massacred in the Baniyas district of Tartus.

On June 2, regime soldiers supported by Hezbollah killed 191 civilians, including children, with knives and firearms in the Resmun Nefil village in the Safirah district in the southeast of Aleppo. The victims' bodies were then burned.

On July 26, a regime missile attack on the Bab al-Nairab of Aleppo killed 35 civilians.

Chemical massacre in Eastern Ghouta

On Aug. 21, 2013, the Syrian regime launched a chemical weapons attack in Eastern Ghouta of Damascus, killing more than 1,400 civilians.

The attack, which primarily affected women and children, resulted in thousands being exposed to toxic gases. In the aftermath, Eastern Ghouta became the region where the regime imposed the strictest siege, using nearly all of its weaponry by 2018.

As a result of a forced agreement with the Syrian government and Russia, opposition forces were compelled to evacuate Eastern Ghouta in April 2018.

Civilians who emerged from the five-year siege are now struggling to survive in northern parts of the country.

According to the SNHR report, since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, the Damascus regime has carried out 217 chemical weapon attacks on opposition-controlled areas.

Massacres in 2014 and 2015

In 2014 and 2015, Assad's forces committed numerous massacres, particularly in Aleppo, Idlib, and Damascus.

On May 1, 2014, a regime helicopter dropped a barrel bomb on a market in Aleppo, killing 40 civilians.

On Oct. 29, 2014, regime forces launched an airstrike with barrel bombs on Abdeen camp in Idlib, killing 60 civilians.

On Jan. 20, 2015, a regime helicopter attacked an animal market in Hasakah with a barrel bomb, killing 160 civilians.

On Feb. 18, 2015, Assad's forces killed 30 civilians, including women and children, in the northern Aleppo town of Ratyan, some by throat-cutting and others by firing squad.

On Feb. 21, 2015, 48 civilians were executed by gunfire in a village of Aleppo.

On May 12, 2015, a regime helicopter dropped a barrel bomb on bus stations in Aleppo, killing 47 civilians.

On Aug. 16, 2015, a regime warplane dropped a vacuum bomb on a market in Douma of Damascus, killing 67 civilians. Four days later, another attack on a market killed 50 more civilians.

On Sept.16, 2015, a regime helicopter launched a barrel bomb attack on the Mashhad neighborhood of Aleppo, an opposition-controlled area, killing 45 civilians.

On June 8, 2015, a regime airstrike on the opposition-controlled town of Al-Janudiyah in Idlib killed at least 50 civilians.

Chemical attack on Khan Shaykhun

On April 4, 2017, regime forces carried out a chemical weapons attack on the town of Khan Shaykhun in Idlib, showing that they had not abandoned the use of banned weapons.

The attack killed more than 100 civilians and injured over 500.

Duma massacre

On April 7, 2018, the Assad regime launched a chemical attack on Duma in the Eastern Ghouta region, killing 78 civilians.

*Writing by Seda Sevencan




Syria rebel leader says will announce ‘list’ of former officials wanted for torture



A man walks past a portrait of late Syrian president Hafez al-Assad in Damascus on December 9, 2024, after Islamist-led rebels seized the capital and forced President Bashar al-Assad to flee, ending five decades of Baath rule. — AFP pic

Tuesday, 10 Dec 2024


DAMASCUS, Dec 10 — Syria’s Islamist rebel leader said today that the incoming authorities will announce a list of former senior officials “involved in torturing the Syrian people”.

“We will offer rewards to anyone who provides information about senior army and security officers involved in war crimes,” rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, now using his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa, said in a statement on Telegram.

The rebel leader on Monday began discussions with the ousted government on transferring power, a day after his opposition alliance dramatically unseated president Bashar al-Assad following decades of brutal rule.

“We will not hesitate to hold accountable the criminals, murderers, security and army officers involved in torturing the Syrian people,” Sharaa said in the Tuesday statement, adding they “will pursue war criminals and ask for their hand over from the countries to which they fled”.

“We have affirmed our commitment to tolerance for those whose hands are not stained with the blood of the Syrian people, and we have granted amnesty to those who were in compulsory service,” he said.


Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group had been administering swathes of Idlib province and parts of neighbouring areas until November 27, when along with allied factions it launched a lightning offensive, seizing government-held territory and capturing Damascus on Sunday.

Assad fled Syria as the Islamist-led rebels swept into the capital, bringing a spectacular end to five decades of brutal rule by his clan. — AFP