Israel’s Wars Repeat The 1980s On Steroids – Analysis

President Ronald Reagan speaking on the telephone. Photo Credit: Reagan White House Photographs, Wikimedia Commons

 December 12, 2024  

By James M. Dorsey

Appalled by Israel’s carpet bombing of Beirut during the 1982 Lebanon war, United States President Ronald Reagan didn’t mince words with then-Israeli Prime Minister Menahem Begin.

“I was angry. I told him it had to stop, or our entire future relationship was endangered. I used the word holocaust deliberately & said the symbol of his war was becoming a picture of a 7-month-old baby with its arms blown off,” Reagan noted in his diary.

The August 1982 phone call between Reagan and Begin provides a template for the US’s ability to twist Israel’s arm and the limits of the Western giant’s influence.

Begin wasted no time in halting his saturation bombing of the Lebanese capital in response to Reagan’s threat. Yet, he rejected the president’s demand that he allow an international force to enter Beirut to protect the hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees in the Israeli-besieged city. His refusal had dire consequences.

A month later, at least 800 Palestinians, many of them women and children, were massacred in their homes in Sabra and Shatila in West Beirut by Lebanese Christian gunmen under the watchful eyes of the Israeli military. Public outrage in Israel forced Begin to resign, ending his career.

Biden failed where Reagan succeeded

More than four decades later, US President Joe Biden understood the stakes when Israel went to war in response to Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel. He also knew the levers of power at his disposal after test-driving Reagan’s approach in 2021.

At the time, Biden, like his predecessor, picked up the phone to read Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the riot act. As a new book on Biden, The Last Politician, describes, it was his fourth phone call to the Israeli leader in ten days in which behind-the-scenes diplomacy and cajoling failed to end fighting between Israel and Hamas. The president advised him that he “expected a significant de-escalation today on the path to a ceasefire.” When Netanyahu sought to buy time, Biden replied: “Hey man, we’re out of runway here. It’s over.”

Netanyahu and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire a day later. Even so, he knew then and now that he had less to worry about than Begin did with the Reagan presidency.

In contrast to Reagan’s administration, which allowed the United Nations Security Council to pass 21 resolutions criticizing, if not condemning, Israel’s policies, Biden gave Israel blanket diplomatic cover and provided it with arms. With these, it could prosecute wars that make 1982 pale in comparison.

Biden’s test-driving of Reagan’s template, familiarity with the Israeli interventions in Lebanon and annexationist policies in the 1980s and beyond, coupled with his predecessor’s willingness to confront Begin in the 1982 war leave the president with little excuse for refusing to rein Israel in over the past year.

Biden’s failure has tangibly devastating consequences for the Palestinians and yet to materialize fallouts for Israelis and the rest of the Middle East. These will haunt the region for a generation, if not more.

Like Begin, Biden will likely see his legacy sullied by Israeli conduct on the Middle East’s battlefields.

Historic destruction may only increase

A heated encounter with Begin during the 1982 war, which involved finger jabbing and fists pounding on a table, spotlights Biden’s lack of an excuse. Echoing Reagan, Biden warned Begin that Israeli settlement policy could cost it US support. In response, Begin snapped, “I am not a Jew with trembling knees.”

Forty-two years later, Biden studiously ignores the fact that Israel’s latest Gaza and Lebanon wars are a repeat of the early 1980s on steroids.

Begin created the template for Israel’s systematic targeting of militants irrespective of the risk to civilians with the 1981 bombing of Fakhani. This densely populated Beirut neighborhood was home to the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and its affiliates. The bombing destroyed a seven-story building and damaged four nearby structures, killing some 90 people and wounding hundreds of others.

In a letter to Reagan, written during Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon, Begin compared the carpet bombing of Beirut to the Allied destruction of Berlin during World War II.

“I feel as a prime minister empowered to instruct a valiant army facing ‘Berlin’ where, amongst innocent civilians, Hitler and his henchmen hide in a bunker deep beneath the surface,” Begin said.

Begin’s equation of PLO chairman Yasser Arafat and his organization with Adolf Hitler and his associates, like Netanyahu equating Hamas with the Nazis, served to justify civilian casualties in operations that were as much about targeting fighters as they were designed to incite the local population against the militants.

“In certain cases, the Israeli shelling and bombing were carefully targeted, sometimes on the basis of good intelligence. All too often, however, that was not the case. Scores of eight-to twelve-story apartment buildings were destroyed… Many of the buildings that were levelled…had no plausible military utility,” recalled historian Rashid Khalidi, who lived in Beirut at the time of the 1982 bombings.

The strategy produced mixed results but, on balance, hardened rather than weakened popular resistance to Israeli policies.

There is little reason to believe that the impact of Israel’s current wars will be any different. Israel has already prepared the ground by turning Gaza into what onetime Australian human rights commissioner and United Nations rapporteur Chris Sidoti calls a “terrorism creation factory.”

• This article was published at Fair Observer and The Turbulent World first published this piece.

James M. Dorsey

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist and scholar, a Senior Fellow at the National University of Singapore's Middle East Institute and Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and blog.

Syrian rebels say Assad regime officials will face justice but soldiers are freed

'We will hold accountable the criminals, murderers, security and army officers involved in torturing the Syrian people,' says rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa

Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebel group, at the historic Umayyad mosque in Damascus (Photo: Aref Tammawi/AFP)

Kieron Monks
December 10, 2024 

The head of Syria’s most powerful rebel faction warned that senior Assad officials would face justice for crimes of the regime, after offering amnesty to enemy soldiers as the country’s new leaders sought to balance demands for accountability with an inclusive approach to postwar governance.

Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel group that spearheaded the lightning offensive that overthrew president Bashar al-Assad, said regime figures would be pursued after evidence of mass killings and torture was discovered in government prisons.

“We will not hesitate to hold accountable the criminals, murderers, security and army officers involved in torturing the Syrian people,” said Sharaa, previously known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, on messaging channel, Telegram.


“We will announce a list that includes the names of the most senior officials involved in torturing the Syrian people. We will offer rewards to anyone who provides information about senior army and security officers involved in war crimes.”

Sharaa had previously promised amnesty to conscripted soldiers of the Syrian army, with media footage purporting to show HTS fighters telling captured regime forces they were free.

HTS, an Islamist militant faction and former al-Qaeda affiliate that broke with the group years ago, has espoused an inclusive message since sweeping into regime-held cities, seeking to allay fears of persecution among Syria’s religious and ethnic minorities. Sharaa denounced “sectarianism” in a victory speech at the historic Umayyad mosque in Damascus on Sunday

.

Inside a secret compartment at Sednaya prison after the fall of the Assad regime in Damascus (Photo: Anagha Subhash Nair/Anadolu via Getty Images)

But mounting evidence of atrocities against suspected regime opponents in government jails such as the Sednaya complex near Damascus – dubbed a “human slaughterhouse” by Amnesty International – has fuelled demands for accountability. The Syrian Network for Human Rights group said that as many as 100,000 people died behind bars.

Dr Andreas Krieg, a Middle East security analyst and lecturer at King’s College London, said HTS would face internal pressure to bring perpetrators to justice.

“These discoveries have gone viral across Syria and the Arab world…and I think it creates public pressure for accountability, and especially within the ranks of the opposition [factions], which have suffered disproportionately,” he said. “It was people who were alleged to be part of the opposition, even 10 years ago, who have disappeared.”

Syrian and international human rights groups have collected evidence of alleged regime crimes throughout the 13-year civil war in the hope of bringing Assad and his Ba’ath Party lieutenants to justice. The US government announced on Tuesday that two Syrian former intelligence officers had been indicted on war crimes charges.

But HTS and their allies are unlikely to support an international law process, Dr Krieg said, suggesting it more likely that senior regime officials – who have not fled the country – could be tried in local Islamic courts

.

A truck pulls the head of the toppled statue of late Syrian president Hafez al-Assad through the streets of the captured city of Hama (Photo: Muhammad Haj Kadour/AFP)

While there have been a handful of reports of regime figures being subjected to mob justice – one clip from the port town of Latakia purported to show an Assad ally being hung – there is as yet little indication of a violent purge of the kind that followed the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 2003, when hundreds were killed in revenge attacks, Dr Krieg said.

Ghassan Ibrahim, a Syrian-British journalist and founder of the Global Arab Network news outlet, said some senior regime figures were likely to be pursued – including family members of Assad – but believes there is no appetite for broad retribution that could prove destabilising.

“I’m happy that the Syrians don’t want to follow the Iraqi [example],” he said. “They don’t want to cleanse the Ba’athists. They don’t want to cleanse the army. They just want to restructure everything.”

Ibrahim added that any trials would have to wait for the formation of new institutions, including a new justice system.

“Talking about accountability, it’s difficult to achieve it because we don’t have the full institutions running in the country,” he said. “We don’t have proper judges, we don’t have local ministries.”

The analyst also questioned whether HTS were in a position to announce policies such as pursuing claims against Assad officials, noting that a variety of opposition groups would expect representation in a new government.

The rebels announced on Tuesday that Mohammed al-Bashir, previously an administrator in HTS-held Idlib, would serve as prime minister in a transitional government until 1 March.

Opinion

Liberating Syria forever


Syrians gather at Umayyad Square to celebrate the collapse of 61 years of Baath Party rule with songs and convoys of cars in Damascus, Syria on December 09, 2024 

[Emin Sansar – Anadolu Agency]

by Muhammad Jamil

December 10, 2024 

MEMO




After more than fifty years of tyranny, oppression and injustice, the Assad regime had a resounding fall, thanks to the sacrifices of the great Syrian people who struggled, suffered and sacrificed everything on the altar of freedom, especially over the last thirteen years.

When the Syrian people peacefully declared their desire for change – like the rest of the Arab peoples in the Arab Spring revolutions – all the enemies ganged up on them and criminal forces rushed to support the regime which committed massacres, destroyed cities and displaced the people from their lands, until people believed that the will of the Syrians had been broken, and the revolution had been aborted.

However, the Spring did not fail them, and it was followed by a stormy winter and great goodness, so that, when the zero-hour struck, the Syrian people gathered their power again and liberated cities one after the other, crowning this liberation by entering Damascus, from which the tyrant of Damascus fled in humiliation, laden with unforgettable and unforgivable crimes.

The resounding and rapid collapse of this regime stunned the world. The tyrants of the region and those aspiring to seize the country’s wealth have tried, for years, to support and maintain this regime, ignoring the victims who have been killed, the missing persons and millions of displaced persons. The Syrian regime’s membership in the Arab League was restored, and the United States of America began to think of lifting sanctions imposed on it, but the Syrian people had a different say, and they raised the flag of the Syrian revolution in the stronghold of the most powerful supporters of this regime in Moscow, while Iran and its sectarian militias retreated and became helpless and unable to save this regime.

The crimes of the regime that we have witnessed throughout the years of killing and destruction are not the whole story, but only part of it. After the fall of the regime, the “greatest secrets” began to uncover to the public, bit by bit, including the graves of the living, from which thousands emerged, some of whom were arrested in the last century, revealing horrific stories of torture, horrifying killing, acid rooms and special rooms containing execution guillotines and presses to grind the bodies of the dead and ovens to burn and dispose of them.

The world was also shocked and impressed by the state of tolerance enjoyed by the revolutionaries, who took no revenge on the puppets of the regime and those who defended its crimes in all forums and there was no chaos, looting or theft. This tolerance reached an unbelievable level, where the government of the toppled regime was tasked with running the state institutions until a framework was formed to manage the country’s affairs for a transitional period.

Nevertheless, the revolutionaries made it clear that this tolerance is not a blank check, as all those who were involved in shedding the blood of the Syrians and looted the country’s wealth will be pursued and held accountable according to the law and in public trials, since there are crimes that cannot be overlooked, and as justice and redress must be made to all victims, and anyone with a right must get his right back.

Hard work and steady and confident steps are underway to build a new state based on the foundations of justice, equality and human dignity, with the participation of all the Syrian people, regardless of their different opinion, affiliation or sect. This is a stage that requires the unification of all efforts to thwart the opportunity for the greedy ones and those betting on the division of the Syrian people.

A lot of work awaits the Syrian people who have just embraced freedom on all internal and external levels; most importantly, the formation of various committees to document the crimes committed over the decades, committees to search for missing persons, committees to inventory the looted funds and pursue the looters, reconstruction committees and other committees. At this sensitive stage, it is very important to have those representing the Syrian people in international forums.

It is true that all Arab peoples, along with the peoples of the free world, are happy with this liberation and are eager to taste the freedom and liberation like the Syrians did, but there are also the spiteful and lurking ones, especially the surrounding dictatorial regimes and their ally, Israel, who will not leave the Syrian people in peace. Israel considers what happened as a threat to its existence, and the Arab tyrants consider it a threat to their thrones, too.

From the first moment, Israel announced that the ceasefire agreement with the Syrian state became void, and invaded Syrian territory, took control of buffer zones, and carried out dozens of air strikes to destroy the capabilities of the Syrian people under the pretext of destroying strategic weapons to prevent it from falling into the hands of the opposition forces.

These air strikes are being carried out with the blessing of the Arab regimes, which is confirmed by the utter silence of the Arab regimes, as they were displeased by the fall of the criminal regime of Al-Assad, which they have been trying to revive and maintain over the years, but they failed, so they found no one except Israel to pressure the revolutionary forces with iron and fire with the aim of dragging them into the swamp of corruption and normalisation.

So far, we have not heard a single voice from the international community condemning this brutal aggression against Syria, its people and its capabilities, as if the Syrian people, who have just begun to heal the wounds endured during a dark era, do not deserve a sincere, loyal and serious stance to soothe their pain and deter this aggression. The Syrian people have suffered enormously at the hands of a bloody regime under the nose of the international community.

The Syrian people have a long path ahead of them to rebuild their state on the foundations of pluralism, justice, equality and freedom. To achieve this, the international community must provide all necessary means of support to rebuild their state institutions so that they become a respected state that would be treated equally with the rest of the world and achieves stability and security for its people.

We should not become overwhelmed by astonishment and surprise at the speed of the fall of a regime whose slogan was “Assad forever” who ruled over the people for more than fifty years, during which the Syrian people made great sacrifices on the path to liberating Syria forever. This is the history, which is full of stories, old and new, of tyrants and the ways in which they were ousted at the hands of peoples who possessed a solid will for change. Would anyone learn from this?

Opinion

Stand aside for Syria’s women

by Yvonne Ridley
yvonneridley
MEM0
December 10, 2024 

Women, fled from attacks with their children, make traditional cookies called ‘mamul’ ahead of Eid al-Adha in a tent camp in Afrin district of Aleppo, Syria on June 16, 2023 [Bekir Kasım – Anadolu Agency]

Good news can bring joy and happiness except on social media, where naysayers, pessimists and the bitter anti-capitalist and radical left have tried to push a rancorous narrative about what we hope will be the end of the civil war in Syria. Yes, there are many imponderables, but I think we should focus on the positive: the Syrian people are finally free of an unspeakable regime which has been ruled by state brutality and cruelty for five decades.

Bashar Al-Assad is no Lion of the Desert, nor is he an anti-imperialist; he was the softly-spoken London ophthalmologist who morphed into a monster. He presided over a ruthless regime which organised the industrial-scale rape of at least 7,000 Syrian women.

Speaking and writing as a Muslim woman, I have absolutely no time for those misogynists who have called the opposition groups terrorists, Al-Qaida and Daesh/ISIS. I suppose, though, that if your only source of information comes from a poisoned well of sectarianism, ignorance and Islamophobia then it is easy to reach that conclusion.

I have many friends on the ground in Syria and I can tell you with a degree of authority that the opposition rebels came together and rose up against the Assad regime while Lebanon’s attention was diverted by Israel’s war against the Palestinians in Gaza. These brave souls were ordinary, largely working class, home-grown heroes who had endured more than enough of Assad and his henchmen.

READ: Assad regime has killed most forcibly displaced, says rights group

Of all the Syrians I’ve encountered, I am still haunted by the women I met in 2018 who told me in awful detail of their rape, torture and abuse in Assad’s prisons.

“Incredible as it may seem, the face of the Syrian leader is emblazoned on T-shirts worn by the rapists in his employ, as if he defiles Syrian women by proxy,” I wrote in MEMO at the time. “No wonder that many who manage to get out of the prisons cannot bear to look at the face of the Syrian leader. Those small, thin lips and piercing stare must send shivers down their spines every time they see his image.”

It is for those women that I am celebrating the fall of Assad, for only they truly know the joy of finally being free of the brutal dictator.

And I want the Assad “warriors” of Branch 215 brought to justice and made to pay for their crimes against women.

That, more than anything else, is why I cheered the arrival of the rebels liberating Damascus this week. For the record, I’m no big fan of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham, with which I have had dealings over its behaviour and treatment of aid workers in Syria.

However, give credit where it is due, HTS has done more than any other “Islamist” group (they’re all Islamists as far as the secular, anti-systemic left is concerned) to cleanse the region of Daesh/ISIS Yes, it did have links with Al-Qaida back in 2016, but as far as I am aware it is an amalgamation of many rebel groups in Syria that opted for unity and strength in numbers.

To claim that HTS is working for Israel is ludicrous, although having the Israeli air force bombing your enemy has to be a bonus. Benjamin Netanyahu’s attempt to claim a big part in the victory in Syria is equally ludicrous, but that man has the brass neck to say anything. No doubt we’ll hear more shameless lies from the disgraced Israeli prime minister during his corruption trial this week, and I hope we will get to hear what he has to say in the dock at The Hague on war crimes charges.

The rapid advance by the opposition factions caught Israel, America and its allies in Europe on the hop.

I’m not sure why, because HTS was apparently ready to go more than a year ago, but held back because of Israel’s war in Gaza and then Lebanon and the subsequent ceasefire with Hezbollah. Much has been made by keyboard warriors of the fact that HTS has not attacked Israel and so it must be fighting for the Zionist army. The conspiracy theorists have joined in with claims that HTS is being backed by the CIA. That may or may not be true, given that the US intelligence agency has made some seriously crazy decisions over the years when meddling in US foreign policy, but personally, if I was a soldier with an enemy in my sights, I couldn’t care less if the weapon has been supplied by Russia, China or America. My only question would be: does it work?

Assad had few friends apart from Russia and Iran and both are naturally hacked off at his demise. We and they need to look at his human rights record, and not forget that revolutions are accomplished through the ranks of ordinary people. Both Russia and Iran should understand this. And if I really want to blow the collective mind of the sanctimonious, secular leftists, they should consider this: Islamists can be and are working class people too.

Over the years, Assad has been responsible, directly and indirectly, for the killing, wounding and suffering of millions of Syrians and their children. Without his reign of terror, around 12 million Syrians would not have fled their homes as refugees or be internally displaced people in the country that the Assad dynasty has ruled so brutally for more than 50 years. His regime is responsible for the slaughter of many more people than were killed or suffered under Daesh/ISIS, and it used chemical weapons and barrel bombs.

READ: UN envoy warns against sending refugees back to Syria too soon

It is important for us to remember that the uprising in Syria was never about the rise of Daesh/ISIS, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi (remember him?) or the deluded band of killers who murdered, maimed, raped and pillaged their way across the region for his terrorist group, which at its height ruled a huge swathe of land across Iraq and the Levant.

Nor had the Syrian revolution anything to do with those Kurds who were seeking self-determination with or without the help of the dodgy PKK or YPG and their boy soldiers. The presence of the US or Russia in Syria had nothing to do with this particular Arab uprising either.

Who remembers Syria’s brave ‘Graffiti Boys’? I wrote about them in January 2014.

While Middle East political analysts from East to West are tying themselves in knots about who gains and who loses from the HTS victory, let’s keep it simple: Women are the big winners, especially the women who have survived Assad’s dungeons, thugs and rapists.

As the great and good gather to “help” move Syria forward positively, I hope that the men in suits from the West and the Arab leaders stand aside for Syria’s women. They should, because these women deserve a place at the top table to advise and help a brave new future emerge in Syria for the next generation. Rim Turkmani is one such woman, and her presence would shut critics up when they claim that HTS leadership in Syria will strip women of their rights.

Opinion

The end of the House of Assad: How, and why now?


by Zaki Kaf Al-Ghazal
MEMO
December 9, 2024 

Citizens in Syria take down statues of Hafez al-Assad – the father of Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria on December 9, 2024. 

[Murat Şengül – Anadolu Agency]

One of the earliest slogans of the 2011 revolutionaries in Syria was, “The Syrian people will not be humiliated.” They were right. In the end, it was their President, Bashar Al-Assad, who fled from Syria in the middle of the night without even notifying his loyalists. He made a quick exit knowing that all was lost.

The Assad family mafia, which has been in power for 54 years, has collapsed. The president of Syria for 24 years is now apparently in Moscow. After an uprising that has lasted 13 years, the significance of this news cannot be understated. Syria is currently the only bastion of the 2011 Arab Spring with a live revolution left. Egypt, Tunisia and Bahrain fell prey to the forces of the counter-revolution, whilst Libya and Yemen were engulfed totally by chaos.

Russia and Iran have essentially kept the Assad regime in place over the past few years; the former with diplomatic protection at the UN and constant air support, and the latter with its militias and proxies, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, working on the ground to organise Assad’s forces,

Both Moscow and Tehran have benefited from the Assad regime.

Russia has had access to Mediterranean ports for its navy, whilst Iran has used Syria to expand its hegemony in the region and supply arms to Hezbollah with ease. Even Israel has benefited from the Assad family, and has been advocating quietly for him to stay. The Golan Heights, occupied illegally by Israel since 1967, have been quiet since 1973 and Israel has craved the stability that the Assad regime has offered.

Efforts to normalise and rehabilitate the Assad regime gained traction only 18 months ago as various Arab state rushed to readmit Bashar to the Arab League, with policymakers and pundits commenting that Assad has won and that the war is over. As mentioned on multiple occasions, though, Assad’s “victory” was both pyrrhic and short term. The swift collapse of his regime in a matter of days only lends credence to this view.

The governance of Syria by Assad and his cronies has been an utter failure. Syria is recognised by experts as a failed state. The economy is moribund, and life there has come to a grinding halt for most of its citizens. Emigration and the fleeing of hundreds of thousands of working-age men who are refugees across the Middle East and Europe because they fear living under Assad’s rule has hit the regime hard. There are no opportunities for the young, and unless its citizens have access to remittances from abroad or have support from benefactors in the state or pro-government militias, then even buying bread and groceries are difficult due to rampant inflation. Syria is now also a narco-state, and it seems that the regime has collapsed under the weight of its own incompetence and brutality.

Turkish FM: millions of Syria refugees can now return home

Moreover, Assad’s allies have been unimpressed with him more recently. A number of senior Iranian army commanders have been killed in Syria in recent weeks and months, having been targeted by Israeli air strikes. The fact that this has been happening so often has led to questions about Assad’s officials leaking information to the occupation state. Whether intentional or a result of endemic corruption in the military, the Iranians are deeply unhappy that a regime that they have propped up for years can’t keep its benefactor’s commanders safe.

Russia, meanwhile, has been un happy about Assad’s reluctance to engage with the Astana Peace Process, which, ironically, happens to be weighted heavily in his favour. It is also worth mentioning that the issue of Syrian refugees in Turkiye has become a challenge for President Erdogan, who has been keen to find a solution and resettle them after coming under domestic pressure to do something.




Syrians living in Essen gather to celebrate the overthrow of the 61-year Baath Party rule in Syria with the Syrian opposition’s “revolution flag,” following the collapse of regime control in the capital, Damascus, on Sunday, December 8, 2024, in Germany. [Hesham Elsherif – Anadolu Agency]The Arab states which have pushed for normalisation with Assad over the past year and a half have not seen any fall in the captagon trade which his regime has fuelled, and are having to deal with the consequences. Assad has done nothing to show that he’s distanced himself from Iran which was part of the Arab states’ demand for normalising relations with Damascus again. And although Assad has claimed for years to be a part of the “Axis of resistance”, the regime has said and done nothing as Gaza burned and its people continue to face a genocide, even as thousands of Palestinian refugees are still in Assad’s prisons, and people still remember his massacres of them.




The accumulation of all of these circumstances and events provided the opposition in Syria with the opportunity to strike now.

The opposition forces today are a different proposition to those of the early revolutionary years, when they were loosely organised factions with little access to weapons. There seems to be a sense of unity amongst them which has been missing. Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), operating under the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), and other factions — including Ahrar Al-Sham, the Sham Legion and the Nour Al–Din Al-Zenki Movement, for example — used the element of surprise to launch an attack on Aleppo which was more successful than people thought it would be. Assad’s forces, the Syrian Arab Army, are a hollow shell of their previous self; morale is low and funding has been cut for months due to economic problems. Even a last-minute attempt to raise the troops’ salaries didn’t offer any encouragement. The soldiers being called up were young men forced onto the front-line; professional troops were killed in combat years ago or had defected. These young men saw Israel as their enemy, not fellow Syrians. Moreover, there were tensions with the few Iranian units still on the ground, with Syrian soldiers feeling that they were looked down upon in their own country, which didn’t bode well. When this is factored in alongside the absence of Hezbollah due to the movement’s weakening in the war with Israel, it should have been no surprise that the Syrian regime forces collapsed as quickly as they did.

READ: Israel army chief declares Syria a fourth ‘fighting front’

The opposition forces in Idlib, meanwhile, were organising and preparing themselves over a longer period, had established a local governing system and had even managed to make and produce some of their own weapons, including the “Shaheen” drones which helped in their quick advance towards Aleppo and Damascus.

When Aleppo was liberated, the Assad regime repeated the same tactics it has used over the course of the 13 year conflict, shelling the city and bombing hospitals to terrorise its citizens into submission. This time though, due to Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine and its own exasperation with the regime, its support was much more limited, and Assad’s air strikes alone weren’t enough. He was arrogant and thought that he was his father, Hafez, who was well-known for the “hamburger trick”; he would toy with other leaders, pretending to offer something substantive (the “hamburger”), while actually just giving the bread. In the meantime, he kept playing political games, dragging his heels on the Astana Peace Process and barely pretending to engage with the Geneva Peace Process. Turkiye’s Erdogan has been trying to meet him and rekindle a normalisation process, but Assad in his arrogance refused. The US is going through a presidential transition, of course, and Biden is a lame duck who at this stage of his time in the White House won’t be making decisions of any strategic importance.

Assad thought that he could play states off against each other and it seems to have blown up in his face. Given that he escaped any real punishment from the international community for repeated use of chemical weapons and years of dropping barrel bombs on hospitals and schools, it’s obvious why he became so arrogant.


As opposition forces declare a Syria free from the Assad dynasty’s rule for the first time since 1971, there are a plethora of challenges to face.

They will now need to build institutions and prove that they are serious about governing the country. They must be able to work with state bureaucracy and deliver basic services such as electricity and water. The early signs are encouraging, with reports from Aleppo that residents have access to electricity. The security situation is also crucial, and looting and chaos must be prevented. The fact that former Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Al-Jalali is supervising state bodies until a transition goes ahead to provide some continuity of service is good news. The north east region which has been ruled by the separatist Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and other Kurdish groups will require a delicate balancing act by the new authority in Damascus. The SDF worked tacitly with Assad in the past so must be convinced to work with the new government. Furthermore, the new authority must be wary of Israel’s cross-border incursions since Assad’s abrupt departure.

READ: Netanyahu claims Syria regime fall could boost prisoner swap deal with Hamas

It is imperative for HTS to kickstart a political transition as soon as possible. Ideally, the group will be dissolved, as promised, and an independent body will govern day to day as an election date is set and a constitution is drafted.

HTS is designated as a terrorist organisation by the US, the UK, the UN and others, although its leader, Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani — real name Ahmed Al-Sharaa — has stressed the fact that it has long broken from Al-Qaeda. In a recent CNN interview, he promised that Syria’s minorities will be protected and that a proper legal system will be put in place.

It is too early to tell whether this is just good PR or is genuine and, if it is the latter, if he can ensure that opposition groups on the ground will listen. The Syrian people rose up in 2011 against the Assad regime to demand a system that respects human rights and the rule of law and gives the people the dignity they deserve. If any authority does not do this, they can expect resistance quickly.

Ideally, the International Criminal Court will charge Assad with committing war crimes and crimes against humanity and issue an arrest warrant. There has been movement towards this in the past, but it has moved at a glacial pace.


This is the justice that the Syrian people crave.

The finality of seeing Assad and his cronies in the dock will not bring back the dead or disappeared, but it would go some way to easing the pain of their families. Ultimately, it must be for the Syrian people to choose their next leader and take their next steps. Russia, Iran, the US, Israel, Turkey and the Gulf states should not have a say, and any international effort should only be to help coordinate the operations of a transitional government which can facilitate free and fair elections in the coming months. The Syrian people overthrew Assad themselves; all it took was for Assad’s backers to abandon him.

The sacrifices that the people have made over the past decade are astonishing, and the stream of released detainees demonstrates this, as even women and children were amongst those detained unjustly.

Syria will now be what is meant to be: a republic. It is no longer one of just two states with a hereditary presidency.

History tells us that empires rise and fall, and that nothing is guaranteed forever. The uprising of the Syrian people demonstrated this. Once-powerful states can crumble quicker than expected, and what was achieved in Syria can be an example for others. As we think about the aggression of Israel against the Palestinian people, we see that it’s sowing the seeds for its own demise in the future. As we learn from history, oppressive regimes set themselves up to fail, and the status quo which benefits the oppressor crumbles.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

Unless otherwise stated in the article above, this work by Middle East Monitor is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. If the image(s) bear our credit, this license also applies to them. What does that mean? For other permissions, please contact us.

UN stands against  ZIONIST violation of territorial integrity of Syria

December 12, 2024

Stephane Dujarric


The United Nations stands against any violation of the territorial integrity of Syria, a UN spokesperson said, after Israel seized a buffer zone in the Golan Heights following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad government.


When asked about media reports that recently the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) targeted 320 Syrian military targets, Stephane Dujarric, spokesperson for the UN secretary-general, said at a daily press briefing, “It is very clear that we stand against any violation of the territorial integrity of Syria. We are against these types of attacks.”

In the wake of the fall of al-Assad’s government, Israel ramped up its military operation in Syria, launching airstrikes against military weaponry and seizing control of a demilitarised buffer zone in the Golan Heights, Xinhua news agency reported.

Dujarric said that the United Nations continues to consider Golan Heights to be the occupied territory of Syria. “I think we were very clear about the violation of the disengagement agreement following the IDF occupation of the buffer zone,” he added.
“I think this is a turning point for Syria. It should not be used by its neighbours to encroach on the territory of Syria,” the spokesperson said.

It should be used by all those in the region and beyond to support the Syrian people, so they can choose their own path, so they can work on a transition that is Syrian-led, Syrian-owned, and inclusive, he said.

Geir Pedersen, special envoy of the UN secretary-general for Syria, on Tuesday urged Israel to cease its military operations in Syria, emphasising the urgent need to halt all conflicts across the Middle East.


“A very troubling development is that we are continuing to see Israeli movements and bombardments into Syrian territory,” Pedersen said. “This needs to stop.”

US-backed, Erdogan’s rivals and tied to Israel: Who are Syria’s Kurdish forces?

Despite Assad’s fall, Syria rife with militias and terror groups clashing over opposing interests; US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Kurdish-led group active for 9 years, fight ISIS and Turkish-backed rebels while seeing Israel as a model

Lior Ben Ari| YNET  |  12|11|2024

The regime of dictator Bashar Assad has been toppled, and the former president has fled to Russia, where he has been granted political asylum. However, the fighting in Syria shows no signs of abating, as various factions with opposing interests continue to battle across the country.

Overnight Wednesday, reports emerged that the Kurdish rebel forces, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), reached a cease-fire agreement with Turkey-backed rebels near the city of Manbij. The truce was brokered by the United States.

 
SDF fighters in northeastern Syria
(Photo: REUTERS/Orhan Qereman)

The SDF commander confirmed the agreement to Reuters, just days after the Kurdish rebels announced they had shifted to a defensive posture against "Turkish occupation and its mercenaries."

Among the many groups currently fighting in Syria, here’s what is known about the Syrian Democratic Forces.

US-backed Kurds fighting ISIS: A decade of the SDF

In October 2024, the SDF celebrated nine years since its founding. The alliance was established in the midst of the Syrian Civil War in the fall of 2015, in the city of Qamishli, located in Syria’s northeastern Al-Hasakah province, a predominantly Kurdish border region. This area also became the SDF’s main theater of operations during the civil war.

According to a recent BBC Arabic report, the SDF has enjoyed U.S. support since its inception, having been created to serve as a local partner for the international coalition fighting ISIS.


SDF forces in Qamishli
(Photo: Delil Souleiman / AFP)

When the SDF was launched, it described itself as a “national military bloc” representing all Syrians, including but not limited to the Kurdish minority. Its primary goal was to defeat ISIS and reclaim all territories seized by the terror group. Backed by financial and military aid from the coalition, the SDF made significant gains on the battlefield.

However, as the Syrian Civil War progressed, Turkey—Syria’s northern neighbor—viewed the SDF’s armed structure, its concentration in northeastern Syria and its successes with increasing hostility.


An American MQ-9 Reaper drone
(Photo: AFP PHOTO /US AIR FORCE)

Against this backdrop of Pentagon support and U.S. activity in parts of Syria, CNN reported on Wednesday that SDF forces mistakenly shot down an American MQ-9 Reaper drone in northern Syria. According to several U.S. officials, the Kurdish fighters believed the drone was Turkish and deemed it a threat. CNN noted that a single MQ-9 drone costs around $30 million.

The conflict with Turkey and Trump’s abandonment

The SDF succeeded in driving ISIS out of several strategic areas and took control of large swathes of northeastern Syria. Although ISIS was declared defeated in 2019, the victory did little to secure the Kurdish forces, who feared displacement or annihilation. Their concerns grew following then-U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw most American troops—a move the Kurds viewed as abandonment.

The U.S. alliance with the SDF had long been a point of contention between Washington and NATO allies, particularly Turkey. Ankara, a NATO member, opposes the Syrian Democratic Forces and Kurdish aspirations along the borders with Syria and Iraq. Turkey vehemently criticized U.S. support for the SDF and repeatedly launched operations against the group.


Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
(Photo: Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

But Turkey wasn’t the only challenge for the SDF. The Syrian regime also opposed the Kurds’ 2016 declaration of a federal system in the areas under their control. According to a BBC report, Turkey’s attacks on the SDF escalated following the outbreak of the Gaza war last year.

Ankara views the SDF as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a group Turkey designates as a terrorist organization. Turkey has waged a decades-long war against the PKK, resulting in significant casualties.

Just this October, tensions between Turkey and the Kurds flared again after the headquarters of the Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS) in Ankara was bombed. Even before the PKK claimed responsibility, Turkey launched a wave of intense air and ground strikes against the Kurds in Syria and Iraq, reportedly targeting SDF positions.


SDF forces in Qamishli
(Photo: Delil Souleiman / AFP)

In addition to Turkey's hostilities, the SDF faced clashes with Arab tribes in Syria’s Deir ez-Zor region, with a second wave of fighting breaking out in August 2023 following earlier clashes in September. Pro-Iranian groups have also attacked SDF positions, adding to the challenges faced by the Kurdish-led alliance.

Challenges for the SDF and its ties with Israel

The main adversaries of the SDF are jihadist groups involved in the Syrian war, particularly ISIS, Turkey-backed Syrian opposition groups and factions linked to al-Qaeda. However, the SDF faces additional challenges.

Opinions are divided regarding the SDF’s exact composition. Some argue that the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) make up the vast majority of SDF fighters and form the backbone of the organization. Other reports suggest that the number of Arab fighters has increased as the SDF advanced into Arab-majority territories.


SDF forces in Al-Hasakah
(Photo: REUTERS/Orhan Qereman)


(Photo: REUTERS/Orhan Qereman)

According to the Pentagon, in March 2016, the SDF comprised 40% Kurds and 60% Arabs. Other sources claim a lower percentage of Arab fighters, but there is consensus that Kurdish leadership dominates the group.

The SDF is made up of several armed factions with varying compositions, including the Sanadid Forces, the Syrian Christian Military Council, the Army of Rebels and the YPJ, an all-female militia. These groups have also been active in the Syrian Civil War, striving to protect the independence of Syrian Kurdistan and resisting the Assad regime’s attempts to annex the region.

The SDF’s commander, Mazloum Abdi, whose real name is Ferhad Abdi Şahin, was born in Kobani, Aleppo province, Syria. According to a recent BBC report, Abdi recently congratulated Donald Trump on his election victory but had previously criticized U.S. policy toward Syria during Trump’s first administration.

Announcing a cease-fire agreement with Turkish-backed Syrian opposition forces, Abdi said, “Our goal is to cease fire throughout Syria and enter into a political process for the future of the country.”

The Kurds’ strong ties with Israel are well-documented, and the SDF views Israel as a model.
Speaking at a press briefing on Monday about recent Israeli strikes on various targets in Syria intended to prevent those assets from falling into extremist hands, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar confirmed that Israel maintains contact with the Kurds in the country.



(Photo: Delil Souleiman / AFP)



(Photo: REUTERS/Orhan Qereman)

Over the years, the Kurds have also fought against the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militia, led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani. Al-Golani, who had spearheaded efforts to topple Assad in what has been termed "Deterrence of Aggression," recently sent messages advocating for "avoiding sectarian violence and building a new Syria for all."

However, given Syria’s fragmentation, only time will tell if these optimistic messages are genuine and achievable, or if the country will once again spiral into complex internal warfare driven by competing interests.

US-Backed Kurds Lack Hope in Post-Assad Syria

By Brian Freeman | Tuesday, 10 December 2024 | NEWSMAX

The U.S.-backed faction in Syria's civil war, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), is already concerned that Bashar Assad's ouster may not produce promised hopes for significant change in the country, Newsweek reported on Tuesday.

"First, we were very optimistic about the fall of Assad because he is a great opponent, and he and his party have been in the heart of the Syrians for more than 50 years at least since his father's rule," SDF cochair Riad Darar told Newsweek

But while Darar acknowledged that the Islamist Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham had offered "positive signals" regarding its stated outlook of working with all elements of Syrian society, including the mostly Arab country's sizable Kurdish minority, he also felt "we cannot expect, as usual, Islamic movements to be democratic or just in the national sense in terms of the participation of all popular groups and components."

He cautioned that "perhaps Islamic rule will come, which will affect the societal structure again, and the regime will become totalitarian again and affect the hopes and aspirations of the people or their optimism."

Despite repeated attempts to engage with the newly established Syrian Transitional Government, led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham surrogate Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir, Darar said the only response so far has been battles with the former opposition.

"We still cannot say that hope exists, because we see changes in the form of the interim government that is intended to be imposed on the Syrians before there is a meeting, national conference, or agreement on the form of the next government," Darar said, adding that "this is also in addition to the mentality that can govern within one vision and traditional stereotypical thinking that relies on the Islamic vision alone and not the national vision."

With clashes erupting across several key strategic axes, the situation puts the United States in a difficult position even as it celebrates the fall of Assad, with whom Washington cut ties at the start of the civil war.

The U.S. continues to extol backing for the SDF while addressing the concerns of NATO ally Turkey, which considers the SDF to be an offshoot of the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). As is the case with ISIS, the U.S. considers the PKK and the formerly Al-Qaeda-affiliated Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham to be terrorist organizations.

Darar said the continued attacks, including reports of ongoing Turkish strikes near the northern town of Ain Issa, only gave a "bad impression" of what was to come under the new Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham transitional government, which he said was set up"without consulting" other segments of Syrian society.

He said the Syrian Democratic Council would continue to strive for a "democratic solution, a decentralized, pluralistic way to build the Syrian state, and for the Syrian Constitution to be a constitution that accommodates all Syrians based on a contemporary, national vision that is neither religious, nor nationalist, nor sectarian."

Darar emphasized counting on continued U.S. backing in the face of the latest challenges that he viewed as being rooted in Turkish aims.

"We are suffering in the regions from this Turkish pressure, and our dependence on the American army is the dependence of a friend on a friend who preserves the sacrifices that we make," Darar said. "It was presented during the partnership and alliance against ISIS, but now there is an obsession with changing the region, and its threat is greater than the threat of ISIS."

Brian Freeman, a Newsmax writer based in Israel, has more than three decades writing and editing about culture and politics for newspapers, online and television.

CANADA

The Day Assad Fled: Joy, Fear, and the Weight of History

After years of silence, I can finally write about Syria again

by Samia Madwar

Dec. 10, 2024

THE WALRUS

People in Damascus celebrate the fall of Bashar al-Assad (Hussein Malla / AP)

To be Syrian, it seems, is to live in disbelief. Even as I watched the news unfold overnight on Saturday and into Sunday morning that rebels had entered Damascus, Syria’s capital, and that long-time dictator Bashar al-Assad had fled the country, even as I learned Sunday morning that he’d officially resigned, and even as family members sent congratulatory messages, I didn’t know how to accept that the regime had finally fallen.

It was a familiar sort of disbelief. Fourteen years ago, as the Arab Spring uprisings tore through North Africa and the Middle East, toppling governments in Tunisia and Egypt, I couldn’t imagine that protests would erupt in Syria. I remember my shock the moment I learned that demonstrators had taken to the streets there. I was living in Ottawa at the time, and a few weeks after the protests began, in March 2011, I flew to Damascus for my older brother’s engagement party. But the festivities were muted and held at home. It wouldn’t have looked good to be seen celebrating any occasion when Assad’s power was being so publicly challenged.

On March 30 that year, Assad gave a speech to parliament—his first since protests had broken out—in which he invoked conspiracy theories, blaming outside agitators for stirring up unrest; he also promised that reforms would be introduced in time. I remember my older brother saying that, after listening to the speech, he felt as though a giant bubble had burst. I realized then that there had been an infinitesimal moment in which we’d dared to hope that things might actually change for the better—and it was over. Assad’s military forces went on to crush the protests with stunning brutality, killing and imprisoning hundreds of thousands of people and bringing the country to ruin, with help from Russia, Iran, and the militant group Hezbollah.

But Syria had been suffering well before 2011. For the half century that Bashar al-Assad and his father, Hafez, before him were in power, they did everything to cement their hold on what they seemed to view as a country that belonged solely to them. This includes a massacre, under Hafez’s rule, of an estimated tens of thousands of civilians, in the city of Hama in 1982, to quell an uprising from the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist opposition group.

The Assads’ hold on power had a psychological dimension. Across the country, it was nearly impossible to avoid seeing giant posters and statues of the now-former president (it feels surreal to use the word “former”), his late father, and Bashar’s elder brother, who’d been groomed as Hafez’s successor before he died in a car crash in 1994. Whether displayed in schools, offices, restaurants, or public squares, the effigies sent a clear message: the Assads’ power was permanent, their influence inescapable, their status mythical. I remember once looking at a giant poster showing Bashar’s family, including his children, and thinking cynically that this was to be our introduction to his likely heirs.

So to say that the Assad regime’s defeat is stunning is an understatement. I’ve had a difficult time processing the news, as much as I want to be able to rejoice. I’ve watched videos of Syrians celebrating in the streets and footage of detainees being freed from the regime’s notorious prisons, and I’ve read reports of refugees crossing the border from Lebanon to return home. On Instagram, Syrians are posting stories about waiting for Damascus airport to open again so they can fly back. On various platforms, I’m seeing posts that chastise those who express fear of what’s coming next, since to do so would imply that there was ever any benefit from having Assad in power.

And yet, for me, the fear endures. The Arab Spring proved a disappointment in so many ways. In Libya, long-time dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi was overthrown and then killed after months of uprisings, but the country remains unstable. Egypt toppled then president Hosni Mubarak, but that regime was soon replaced by a government led by the Muslim Brotherhood; following a coup, there’s now a military dictatorship in place. The rebels who took down the Assad regime in Syria belong to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a movement with previous links to al-Qaeda, both of which Canada and other countries consider terrorist organizations. HTS’s Islamist roots have some worried, including those in the minority Christian community in Syria.

I, too, worry that HTS might put in place a government that imposes Islamist rule, and I can picture countless other terrifying scenarios. I worry Syrian society won’t have a chance to properly grieve and commemorate all those murdered by the regime. One of my most persistent fears, though, is that we’ll all start to hope again—only for that hope to be torn apart once more.

Some of my relatives are urging me to be optimistic. That, after years of pain, after a lifetime under Assad rule, we should take the opportunity to feel joy. And that, having seen the atrocities Assad committed, Syrians won’t let anything so extreme or horrific happen again.

I called my father, who is in Montreal, on Sunday morning as we both registered the news that Assad had indeed fled Syria. I began to voice things I’d only dreamed of before: Going back to Damascus to visit family and show my little daughter the place I grew up. Visiting my late grandfather’s home and sitting in his library again. Later that day, over tea with a friend in Toronto, we pictured going back to rebuild the country that could be one of the most beautiful in the world if only its people were given a chance.

While talking to my dad that morning, I asked him if I could finally write about Syria again. I’ve been under a self-imposed moratorium for years; my father occasionally travelled to Damascus to visit his mother, and I didn’t want to publish anything critical of the Assad regime that might get him into trouble while he was there. He laughed at the question. Now, he said, you can write whatever you want.

My grandmother still lives in Damascus. She used to ask me when I was coming to visit her. But now, at over 100 years old, she can barely recognize me when I video-call her on WhatsApp. I wonder if she’d be able to remember me if she saw me again in person, something I didn’t think I’d get to do before she died. Despite everything, that possibility alone has sparked the tiniest glimmer of hope. One that’s so far managed to defy all of my fears.

Samia Madwar is a senior editor at The Walrus.