Ghana’s Supreme Court paves way for anti-LGBTQ law


By AFP
December 18, 2024

Ghana's proposed anti-LGBTQ legislation is considered among the most stringent in Africa, stipulating jail terms of up to three years for engaging in same-sex relations and up to five years for promoting or sponsoring LGBTQ activities - Copyright AFP/File Adrian DENNIS

Ghana’s Supreme Court on Wednesday paved the way for a contested bill severely curtailing LGBTQ rights to become law after rejecting two bids to overturn it.

Lawmakers approved the Sexual Rights and Family Values Bill in February, drawing international condemnation despite gaining wide public support in the conservative West African country.

The proposed anti-LGBTQ legislation is considered among the most stringent in Africa, stipulating jail terms of up to three years for engaging in same-sex relations and up to five years for promoting or sponsoring LGBTQ activities.

The bill will only become law after being ratified by the outgoing president Nana Akufo-Addo or his successor John Mahama.

Akufo-Addo, who officially steps down on January 7 after two terms in office, has not yet announced his decision.

He had said he would first await the Supreme Court’s ruling on the bill’s constitutionality.

Opposition leader, Mahama, who won the December 7 elections, voiced support for the anti-LGBTQ bill during the electoral campaign.

Gay sex is already illegal in the religious, mostly Christian nation, but while discrimination against LGBTQ people is common, no one has ever been prosecuted under the colonial-era law.

“The Supreme Court’s decision is a victory for Ghanaian values and cultural sovereignty,” Yaw Biney, a lawyer and supporter of the bill, told AFP.

LGBTQ rights campaigners voiced fear and disappointment.



– ‘Chilling message’ –



The court ruling followed cases filed by Ghanaian broadcaster Richard Dela-Sky, who challenged the constitutionality of the bill, and university researcher Amanda Odoi.

Odoi had sought to block the sending of the bill to the president for ratification.

But the court said it would be “premature” of it to make a judgement on the bill.

“Consequently, the action fails,” judge Avril Lovelace-Johnson, head of the court’s seven-member panel said, reading its judgement.

“Until there is presidential assent to the bill, there is no act of which the Supreme Court will use its supervisory jurisdiction to overturn,” she added.

Takyiwaa Manuh, African Studies professor at the University of Ghana and an advocate for the LGBTQ community, called it a “disappointing day for human rights in Ghana”.

“The Supreme Court had an opportunity to affirm the dignity and freedom of all citizens, regardless of their sexual orientation, but this decision risks deepening discrimination and marginalisation against the LGBTQ community,” Manuh told AFP.

Esi Bonsu, an activist with the Ghana Coalition for Equality, said it sent “a chilling message to LGBTQ Ghanaians that their lives and rights are not valued”.

– Fears for finances –

The bill was initially introduced into parliament in 2021 but the vote faced delays.

It sparked criticism from the United Nations and several countries, including the United States, as well as concern from Ghana’s finance ministry, which warned of a risk of losing billions of dollars in World Bank funding.

The United States reiterated its misgivings over the proposed law.

“We have previously stated our concerns about this bill, and we remain in close contact with Ghanaian government officials and the incoming administration of President-elect Mahama across a range of issues,” State Department spokesman Vedant Patel told reporters in Washington.

“Our primary concern is the safety and well-being of vulnerable populations and individuals. Nobody should be targeted, threatened harm or marginalised (for) who they are,” he said.

Ghana fears it could face the same fate as Uganda, which last year passed one of the harshest anti-gay laws in the world.

The World Bank froze lending to Uganda in the wake of the law, which imposes penalties of up to life in prison for consensual same-sex relations and contains provisions that make “aggravated homosexuality” an offence punishable by death.

Ghana, emerging from its worst economic crisis in decades, is also under a $3-billion loan programme from the International Monetary Fund.

United Nations rights chief Volker Turk condemned the passing of the bill in February, saying that consensual same-sex conduct should never be criminalised.

Around 60 countries in the world ban same-sex relations, about half of them are in Africa, according to the International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association (ILGA).

Taiwan’s Foxconn in talks with Renault over Nissan stake: report


ByAFP
December 18, 2024


Foxconn is the world's biggest contract electronics manufacturer and assembles gadgets for many international brands - Copyright AFP Sam Yeh

Taiwan’s Foxconn is in talks with French auto giant Renault to buy its major stake in Japanese carmaker Nissan, a report said Thursday, after the Japanese firm rebuffed its inquiries about an investment.

The development comes after reports on Wednesday that Nissan and local rival Honda were in talks about a merger to help them compete against Tesla and Chinese electric vehicle makers.

Foxconn, also known by its official name Hon Hai Precision Industry, is the world’s largest contract electronics manufacturer and builds devices for major tech companies, including Apple’s iPhones.

But it has been moving to diversify beyond electronics assembly, pushing into areas ranging from electric vehicles to semiconductors and servers.

Taiwan’s Central News Agency cited unnamed industry sources as saying Jun Seki, Foxconn’s chief strategy officer for EV, had gone to France to negotiate with Renault, which owns a significant stake in Nissan.

The report said Foxconn “had directly expressed” its willingness to Nissan to buy equity but after “Nissan did not agree” it approached Renault.

“Seki and his team are currently negotiating with Renault in France, hoping that Renault will be willing to release its equity in Nissan to Hon Hai,” the report added.

Foxconn was not immediately available for comment.

Nissan and Honda, Japan’s number two and three automakers behind Toyota, were said to be in preliminary discussions on a tie-up, having agreed in March to explore a strategic partnership on EVs.

Bloomberg reported Wednesday that an approach by Foxconn to take a controlling stake in Nissan accelerated discussions with Honda.

Foxconn is looking to expand into the Japanese EV market and chairman Young Liu said at an earnings call last month that the company was in talks with “two Japanese carmakers” hoping to sign contracts in the next few months, without providing details.

Nissan has suffered a turbulent decade that included an attempted major alliance with France’s Renault that saw its former boss Carlos Ghosn arrested in 2018.

Last month, it announced 9,000 job cuts, slashed its sales forecasts and said it would reduce global production capacity by 20 percent.

Ivory Coast wants bigger share of its mining boom


By AFP
December 19, 2024

The mining sector now accounts for four percent of Ivory Coast's gross domestic product - Copyright AFP/File Richard A. Brooks

Marietou BÂ

Ivory Coast’s mining industry is booming, driven by foreign investment and the discovery of new deposits, but the country now wants a bigger slice of the pie for its own businesses.

Huge deposits of natural resources — including oil, gas and gold — have pushed the economy of the world’s biggest cocoa producer in a new direction.

Three discoveries of oil and gas have been made since 2021 and gold production last year was four times higher than a decade earlier.

The West African country’s bedrock also contains iron, diamonds, nickel, manganese, bauxite, copper and newly discovered reserves of coltan –- a precious ore used to make electronic devices.

Ivory Coast has offered attractive conditions to bring in foreign investors. Now, a revision of the mining code due in the coming weeks will target homegrown investment.

Current laws introduced in 2014 “facilitated the arrival of many investors” by extending permits and creating a land register for greater transparency, director general of mines Seydou Coulibaly said.

Few details about what will be in the revised mining code are known.

But it is expected to focus on local businesses and communities, Coulibaly added, in order to boost the national economy.

Mining Minister Mamadou Sangafowa Coulibaly has urged experts drawing up the text to include measures to “ensure fairness in the distribution of the wealth, once the discovery has been made”.



– Ten-year boom –



“The new code will be more attractive and the means are being put in place to ensure that operations also benefit Ivorians, particularly by involving national banks, without discouraging international investors,” said specialist Cedric Sehe, who heads mining promotion firm CAMP2E.

It comes at a time when the military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are taking steps to reclaim mining resources from foreign companies operating in the Sahelian countries.

In Ivory Coast over the last 10 years, discoveries of hydrocarbons and minerals have multiplied, production has grown and resources have diversified.

The number of mining permits has roughly tripled to 29, while exploration permits have increased from 140 to 189.

Gold production shot up from 13 to 51 tonnes between 2012 and 2023.

The mining sector now accounts for four percent of Ivory Coast’s gross domestic product, compared to just 1.5 percent a decade ago, according to the Professional Association of Miners of Ivory Coast (GPMCI).

Likewise, tax revenue from mining has ballooned to 250 billion CFA francs ($399,500, 381 million euros) — a 20-fold increase over the same period.

Total investment in Ivorian mines was estimated to be more than 500 billion CFA francs last year.



– Prioritising Ivorians –



Ivorian authorities already sought to “promote and develop” local extractive companies under a 2022 law.

However, it only applied to oil and gas activities.

Under the legislation, Ivorian firms should already get priority in public tenders and certain activities must be carried out only by them.

They include “slickline” operations, where a cable is used to lower tools into oil wells, said Erus Djimo from Ivorian company Hydrodrill, which operates two oil and gas sites.

Speaking at the International Extractive and Energy Resources Exhibition in the main city, Abidjan, last month, he said the technique required technology “within the reach of local companies”.

The exhibition organised by the government was a first, and brought together local businesses and foreign heavyweights such as Italian giant Eni and Canada’s Endeavour Mining.



– Lack of finance –



The 2022 law encouraged oil and gas industry companies “to recruit and employ Ivorian nationals as a matter of priority” and train local workers.

Sangafowa Coulibaly, the mining minister, in May also announced the creation of a digital platform dedicated to the local sector to ease administrative procedures including licence applications and renewals and provide access for hydrocarbons tenders.

Local business manager Faustin N’Dri N’Guessan welcomed the shift towards helping Ivorian companies reap bigger profits.

The new policy is an “opportunity to grow”, said N’Guessan, from the infrastructure manufacturing and maintenance company Kuyo Pipeline.

But “we do not really have financial backing”, he complained, adding that the state needed to “understand that funds must be created” as investment currently comes from abroad or private initiatives.

In a step towards addressing that need, the GPMCI professional miners’ association announced last month that it would set up an investment fund to support local businesses and training.

Melting sea ice in Antarctica causes ocean storms, scientists say


AFP
December 18, 2024


Scientists know the damaging consequences of the loss of Antarctic sea ice 

- Copyright AFP Ludovic MARIN

The record-breaking retreat of Antarctic sea ice in 2023 has led to more frequent storms over newly exposed parts of the Southern Ocean, according to a study published Wednesday.

Scientists know that the loss of Antarctic sea ice can diminish penguin numbers, cause ice shelves to melt in warmer waters, and impede the Southern Ocean from absorbing carbon dioxide.

But this new research, published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature, explores another consequence: increased heat loss from the ocean to the atmosphere, and an associated rise in storms.

Since 2016 there has been a large-scale reduction in Antarctic sea ice, but nothing like 2023 when a record amount failed to reform over the winter.

For this study, Simon Josey of the UK’s National Oceanography Centre and colleagues focussed on three regions that experienced unusually high levels of sea-ice retreat that year.

Using satellite imagery, ocean and atmospheric data, and wind and temperature measurements, they found some newly ice-free areas experienced double the heat loss compared to a stabler period before 2015.

This was accompanied by “increases in atmospheric-storm frequency” over previously ice-covered regions, the authors found.

“In the sea-ice-decline regions, the June–July storm frequency has increased by up to 7 days per month in 2023 relative to 1990–2015.”

The loss of heat caused by reduced sea ice could have implications for how the ocean circulates and the wider climate system, the study added.

Oceans are a crucial climate regulator and carbon sink, storing more than 90 percent of the excess heat trapped near Earth’s surface by greenhouse gas emissions.

In particular, sea-ice retreat could mean changes in how a deeper layer of cold, dense Antarctic bottom water absorbs and stores heat.

The authors said further in-depth analysis of possible climate impacts were needed, including if sea-ice retreat could have even further-reaching consequences.

“Repeated low ice-cover conditions in subsequent winters will strengthen these impacts and are also likely to lead to profound changes further afield, including the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere,” it said.

Myanmar junta FM briefs neighbours on election plans: Thai FM

By AFP
December 19, 2024

Ethnic and pro-democracy rebels are fighting junta forces in Myanmar

 - Copyright AFP/File STR

Myanmar’s junta-appointed foreign minister briefed officials from five neighbouring countries on the military’s repeatedly delayed plans to hold elections, Thailand’s foreign minister said on Thursday.

The Myanmar military seized power in 2021, making unsubstantiated claims of massive electoral fraud in 2020 polls won resoundingly by the Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD).

It has since unleashed a bloody crackdown on dissent and as fighting ravages swathes of the country has repeatedly delayed plans for fresh polls that critics say will be neither free nor fair.

Junta-appointed foreign minister Than Swe met diplomats from China, India, Bangladesh, Laos and Thailand for an “informal consultation”, Thai foreign ministry spokesman Nikorndej Balankura told reporters.

Myanmar “outlined very broadly that progress is being made towards an election” in 2025, he said, adding that no details, including an exact date, were discussed.

The talks in Bangkok were hosted by Thai foreign minister Maris Sangiampongsa and come a day ahead of informal talks on Myanmar hosted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc.

ASEAN, of which Myanmar is a member, has made little progress towards resolving the Myanmar crisis.

Thailand, which regularly hosts thousands of people fleeing the conflict, has held its own bilateral talks with Myanmar’s junta leaders.

In 2023 its then foreign minister also said he had met briefly with Suu Kyi, who has been in military custody since the coup.

The junta has several times pushed back a timetable for fresh polls as it struggles to crush widespread opposition to its rule from ethnic rebel groups and pro-democracy “People’s Defence Forces”.

In 2022, the junta-stacked election commission announced that Suu Kyi’s NLD would be dissolved for failing to re-register under a tough new military-drafted electoral law.

China, the junta’s most important ally, has grown increasingly alarmed at the conflict on its doorstep and in October called for a “reconciliation led by all people of Myanmar”.

Earlier this year, its foreign minister said Beijing backed the junta’s plans for polls.

The United States has said any elections under the junta would be a “sham”, while analysts say polls would be targeted by the military’s opponents and spark further bloodshed.

Portugal, Spain, France bust contaminated seafood ring


By AFP
December 19, 2024


Mickael Vallee, a professional fisherman, holds glass eels he fished in Cordemais, western France - Copyright AFP JEAN-SEBASTIEN EVRARD

A European operation has spared revellers a potential food poisoning nightmare before Christmas, seizing 30 tonnes of molluscs illegally fished in polluted waters and arresting 62 suspects, authorities said on Thursday.

Law enforcement in Portugal, France and Spain seized the molluscs and six tonnes of glass eels worth up to 10 million euros ($10.4 million) on the seafood market, Europol said.

The delicacies can fetch up to 25 euros per kilo (2.2 pounds), but poaching gangs exploited Asian workers by paying them just one euro per kilo of molluscs fished in contaminated Portuguese waters.

This made the case the first proven crime in the European Union combining environmental offences and human trafficking for labour exploitation, Europol added in a statement.

The gangs mainly fished Japanese clams, especially popular during the Christmas season on the Iberian Peninsula, and falsified the documentation to present them as fit for consumption.

This could have sparked a public health alarm as the continuous consumption of contaminated molluscs puts people at risk of developing serious illnesses including hepatitis.

Spain-based companies imported the seafood from neighbouring Portugal and sold them without carrying out obligatory sanitary measures to boost their profits, the Spanish Civil Guard added in a statement.

The operation, coordinated by Europol, involved the Civil Guard, French gendarmes and Portugal’s National Republican Guard.

White House unveils new climate goals weeks before Trump’s return

By AFP
December 19, 2024

US President Joe Biden speaks on Earth Day at Prince William Forest Park on April 22, 2024 in Triangle, Virginia 

- Copyright GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File Andrew Harnik

Issam AHMED

President Joe Biden’s administration on Thursday unveiled a new climate target under the landmark Paris accord, just weeks before Donald Trump’s return to the White House threatens to upend US efforts to combat global warming.

According to a White House Statement, the United States commits to reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 61-66 percent below 2005 levels by 2035, reflecting the world’s second-largest polluter’s goal of limiting long-term heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

“I’m proud that my administration is carrying out the boldest climate agenda in American history,” Biden said in a video statement hailing the new measures, aimed at keeping the United States on the path to net zero emissions by 2050.

“We will turn this existential threat into a once-in-a-generation opportunity to transform our nation for generations to come.”

But his climate legacy hangs in the balance, with Trump’s second term expected to bring sweeping rollbacks of environmental protections and a retreat from international commitments, including the Paris agreement, mirroring his first term.

“In his first term, President Trump advanced conservation and environmental stewardship while promoting economic growth for families,” Trump-Vance transition spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said in a statement to AFP.

She added Trump’s policies “produced affordable, reliable energy for consumers along with stable, high-paying jobs” and vowed that his second term “will once again deliver clean air and water for American families while Making America Wealthy Again.”



– States and businesses to the rescue?



In a call with reporters, Biden’s global climate envoy John Podesta acknowledged that while Trump “may put climate action on the back burner,” he remained confident in the private sector and state and local governments to drive progress.

“That’s not wishful thinking — it’s happened before,” he stressed.

Environmental groups broadly welcomed the new targets, which were due before a deadline in February and include a commitment to reduce emissions of super polluting methane by 35 percent by 2035.

“This provides an important rallying point and benchmark for forward-looking states, cities, and businesses that understand addressing climate change is good for the economy,” Rachel Cleetus of the Union of Concerned Scientists told AFP.

“Even though the Trump administration may not lift a finger to deliver on this plan, it sets a north star for what the US should be aiming for,” added Debbie Weyl of the World Resources Institute.



– Bold record, with caveats –



Biden’s administration arguably pursued the most ambitious climate agendas in US history, marked by rejoining the Paris agreement, passing the Inflation Reduction Act with record clean energy investments, and committing to protecting 30 percent of land and water by 2030.

Yet critics point to the contradiction of the US maintaining its status as the world’s largest fossil fuel producer, complicating efforts to lead on global climate action.

While China is the world’s largest emitter, the United States remains the largest historic polluter, amplifying its responsibility to address the climate crisis, environmentalists argue.

Despite progress, the US remains off-track to meet its current 2030 target of reducing emissions by 50-52 percent below 2005 levels.

A recent report by the independent Rhodium Group said the United States was on track to achieve only a 32-43 percent reduction by 2030, though a senior Biden administration official said their own estimate “now reaches up to 45-46 percent.”

Meanwhile, the European Union — the world’s fourth largest emitter — is debating a 90 percent reduction by 2040 over 1990 levels, but will likely miss a February UN deadline to file its revised climate roadmap.

Neil Makaroff, an analyst at the Strategic Perspectives think tank specializing in climate transition, said the European Union is “behind schedule” in presenting its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and is “unlikely to fit into the UN timetable”.

Market trends and falling renewable energy costs may limit backsliding under Trump, but Cleetus cautioned against complacency, highlighting concerns about fossil fuel expansion.

“Regardless of the politics, the science and what’s happening in the world are very clear,” she said, noting that 2024 is on track to be the hottest year on record as climate catastrophes mount.

Even if Trump withdraws the United States from the Paris Agreement on his first day back, the process takes a year.

In the meantime, his administration could revise or simply ignore the US NDC — the voluntary pledge underpinning Washington’s climate commitments to the United Nations.

Biden Administration Races to Approve Green Funding Ahead of Trump Presidency

By Felicity Bradstock - Dec 18, 2024

The Biden administration is rapidly approving green energy loans to solidify progress on the U.S. green transition before Trump's inauguration.

Trump has vowed to cut spending on renewable energy and boost fossil fuel production, putting green initiatives at risk.

The Department of Energy's Loan Programs Office is working to finalize as many loans as possible, but faces criticism for the rushed process.


Following the recent election of Donald Trump as the next president of the U.S., the Biden administration is racing to approve huge quantities of green funding to ensure the U.S. gets the best chance possible at a green transition. The Biden government’s far-reaching climate policy, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), is under threat as President-elect Trump has repeatedly threatened to cut spending on renewable energy and clean tech in favour of greater fossil fuel production. The government is, therefore, racing to advance clean energy before Trump’s inauguration in January.

The Loan Programs Office at the Department of Energy (DoE) is working to finalise as many loans as possible before the change of government in January, as its future looks uncertain. During Biden’s leadership, the office announced around $54 billion in loans or loan guarantees, which is just a small portion of its total lending power, for projects such as the Rivian electric car factory in Georgia and a massive power line in the Midwest. However, the office has closed just $13.5 billion of the deals to date.

Kennedy Nickerson, a former policy adviser to the loan programs office, stated, “They see the writing on the wall… They want to get out as much money as possible just to safeguard as much progress as they can.”

Companies expecting a payout from the Loan Office are now worried that loans could be delayed or stopped under the new Trump administration. In addition to losing out on critical funds and threats to the advancement of the U.S. green transition, some company leaders believe that if their projects are delayed it leaves space for China to move ahead, which could be detrimental to U.S. geopolitical aims.

he passing of the IRA in 2022, the Loan Programs Office was made responsible for the distributin of up to $400 million in funding. The office, which was established in 2009, has input from thousands of experts at the DoE, making it better prepared to assess green energy and clean tech projects than most commercial banks.

Since Biden’s inauguration in January 2021, the office has approved $34 billion in loans for the electric vehicle (EV) and battery industries, aiming to counter China’s dominance in the global market. Funds have been awarded to battery manufacturers and automakers, to strengthen domestic EV and battery supply chains. It has also provided financing for several novel technologies to drive innovation that could help advance the U.S. green transition.

The office is now racing to finalise various funding decisions for fear that Trump may attempt to halt green spending once in office. In his July Party Platform, Trump stated his intention to DRILL, BABY, DRILL.” He said, “We will become Energy Independent, and even Dominant again. The United States has more liquid gold under our feet than any other Nation, and it’s not even close. The Republican Party will harness that potential to power our future.”

During his first term in office, Trump rolled back over 100 environmental rules and withdrew the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement, which it had joined in 2015. He also sought to establish more opportunities for new drilling on federal land and offshore drilling.

Trump has been adamant about his intention to halt programmes and funding from the IRA. “My plan will terminate the Green New Deal, which I call the Green New Scam. Greatest scam in history, probably,” Trump said in a September speech. He also stated plans to overturn Biden administration regulations on vehicles, power plants, and household appliances.

The rush to approve funds has been criticised by the opposition in recent weeks. A letter from three House Republicans addressed to the head of the Loan Programs Office, Jigar Shah, stated, “The last-minute drive to expedite loans exposes the federal government — and American taxpayers — to tremendous risk.”

Shah responded by saying, “Our process remains the same… We continue to do everything with a fine-toothed comb. But right now, borrowers are sufficiently motivated to move more quickly.”

The rush to finalise funding decisions started even before the November presidential election when the office recognised the potential shift in policy approach. In October, Katie Harris with BlueGreen Alliance, a coalition of union and environmental groups, stated, “The Biden-Harris administration is trying to get this money out the door and get it fully obligated.” Harris added, “It’s quite the undertaking.”

By early September, $61 billion in climate funding had been awarded across several government departments, such as the Environmental Protection Agency, with much of it allocated this year. This figure does not include the significant tax credits that have been awarded.

While it will be impossible to complete all the pending loans under the Loan Programs Office and other government agencies, the Biden administration is making a clear effort to distribute the funding as quickly as the bureaucratic process will allow to ensure that the U.S. is given the best possible chance at a green transition.

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

What is a trade deficit — and does it matter to the economy?

By Christopher Reynolds, 

The Canadian Press

December 19, 2024 

In a post on Truth Social early Wednesday, Donald Trump claimed his country is financially supporting its northern neighbour.

The U.S. president-elect wrote that “we subsidize Canada to the tune of $100,000,000 a year” — an apparent reference to a previous claim about a $100-billion trade gap — and said the imbalance “makes no sense.”

“Many Canadians want Canada to become the 51st State,” he said in the post, made at 3:23 a.m. EST.

In fact, the U.S. trade deficit sat at US$41 billion in 2023, according to figures from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
What is a trade deficit?

On the global stage, countries export some goods and services while importing others. A trade deficit occurs when the dollar value of a country’s imports is more than its exports.

Each country has an overall global trade balance, as well as various balances with other states they buy and sell with — for example, the one between the United States and Canada.

More than $3.5 billion in goods and services cross the border daily, with the U.S. comprising Canada’s closest largest trading partner. More than two-thirds of Canadian trade is with its southern neighbour, and Canada is among America’s top trading partners as well.
What are key factors behind the U.S. trade deficit with Canada?

It mainly boils down to oil. Virtually all of Canada’s crude oil exports and much of its other energy products flow south. Energy exports accounted for more than $177 billion or roughly 28 per cent of Canada’s goods exports to the U.S., according to the federal government.

“If we exclude oil ... the U.S. is actually benefiting from this trade relationship,” said Salim Zanzana, an economist at the Royal Bank of Canada.

The idea that an imbalance necessarily hurts a country is misplaced, said Stuart Trew, director of the trade and investment research project at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.

“This is actually not a problem for the United States,” he said.

“It’s actually creating jobs in the United States ... Most of the oil we send to the United States, at least from Alberta, is refined in U.S. refineries employing thousands of people. And that is then turned into products like plastics, like chemicals, like fuels — also in the United States.

“The other thing is that they need that oil,” he added.


That sentiment enjoys support from Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who posted a similar argument on X in response to Trump.

“Canada (especially Alberta) sends billions of raw materials (oil, gas, minerals, grain, livestock, timber, etc) to your U.S. refineries and factories which your great American companies and workers upgrade and sell around the world, including back to Canada (we are your biggest customer by a mile),” she wrote.

“Literally millions of good paying American jobs and companies rely on these affordable raw materials from Canada to make trillions of dollars of wealth in your country.”
Does a trade deficit mean the country’s economy is weak?

Trump has both suggested that Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. is a point of pride for Canadians — “they were bragging and got caught!” he said in a Twitter post in 2018 — and a point of shame: “we subsidize Canada...”

But experts say a trade deficit or surplus is not in itself good or bad.

The focus should be on overall trade and investment between countries, Trew said. If cross-border trade goes up, as it has for decades, both nations can benefit.

Each can leverage their comparative advantage in different areas — crude oil in Canada and machinery production in the U.S., for example — while closely integrating their supply chains in other fields such as automotive manufacturing.

“They export way more services to us,” Trew noted. “You turn on Netflix, you turn on Amazon Prime. It’s not problematic.”

He qualified that the massive imbalance in goods trade with China is an issue “if your goal is to enhance your manufacturing capacity,” since cheaper Chinese-made consumer products can undercut American suppliers.
Why is this not as simple as winners and losers?

Observers suggest Trump is using the trade gap as a pretext to raise tariffs or gain leverage in negotiations around the Canada-U.S.-Mexico free-trade agreement.

“Mr. Trump’s method is pretty well known. You hit the other side over the head, force them to react and maybe make concessions, and then you negotiate,” said former Quebec premier Jean Charest, now a partner at the Therrien Couture Joli-Coeur law firm, in an interview on Wednesday.

Trump has threatened to impose 25 per cent tariffs on all goods from Canada unless it stops the flow of migrants and illegal drugs into the U.S.

Charest stressed the tightly braided supply chains in auto and other manufacturing sectors.

“If you put a tariff on it, you’re really putting a tariff on yourself,” Charest said. “Components that go into building cars may cross the border up to seven times until the final building of a car.”
What are the ramifications of Trump’s fixation on trade gaps and tariffs?

If the incoming president sees trade gaps as an imbalance to be corrected — or compensated for — the ripple effects would be far-reaching.

“It could spread to non-trading industries,” Zanzana said of potential tariffs. “There’s also a risk of retaliatory tariffs, which Canada has done in response to previous tariffs on steel and aluminum.”

He also cited lower growth, higher inflation, weaker business investment and greater uncertainty as likely outcomes.

Zanzana framed a trade deficit as a form of borrowing. Since the value of imports amounts to less than can be bought out of export sales, “that shortfall needs to be made up for by selling assets or borrowing abroad,” he said.

“Balancing the trade gap, therefore, would essentially require re-balancing economy-wide net borrowing, and the biggest net borrower in the economy is — surprise, surprise — the federal government.”

Achieving that goal would be “very hard” given U.S. federal deficit levels already stand near record highs, he said.

Charest said Trump’s social media post underscores the need to diversify trade rather than remain “captive to a single American client.”

“I don’t think it’s useful for us to engage with Mr. Trump on the abrasiveness side,” he said.

“But he does shed light in a brutal way on the fact that we as a country have to rise above the circumstances in which we are now and redefine our place relative to the United States, relative to the rest of the world.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 18, 2024.

BP, Iraq Advance Redevelopment of Kirkuk Oil and Gas Fields

By Mitchell Ferman

December 19, 2024 

(Bloomberg) -- BP Plc reached an agreement with the Iraqi government on technical terms to redevelop the prolific Kirkuk oil and gas fields, the company said Thursday.

“Today’s signing is an important step toward a fully termed contract,” BP Executive Vice President William Lin said in a statement.

“We are grateful to the Iraqi government for its continued support of BP’s activities in the country, particularly around Rumaila, and for the dedicated engagement to progress negotiations on the potential future development of these critically important fields in and around Kirkuk.”

Negotiations are expected to be complete early in 2025, BP said.

The British oil giant has a long history with the second-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which holds the world’s fifth-largest proved crude reserves. The company was part of the consortium that discovered oil in Kirkuk in the 1920s and now Kirkuk appears be key to BP’s upstream strategy under CEO Murray Auchincloss.

Thursday’s step by BP and Iraq follows a memorandum of understanding that the two sides signed in August to invest and explore in the region.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

 European, Chinese Officials Board Ship Linked to Cable Damage

By Sanne Wass

December 19, 2024 

(Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- Representatives from Sweden, Finland, Germany accompanied Chinese officials to board a China-registered ship that was potentially involved in undersea cable sabotage in the Baltic Sea last month.

The bulk carrier, Yi Peng 3, has been anchored just outside Denmark’s territorial waters for a month. Swedish and Finnish authorities have previously said the commercial vessel was of interest as incidents of data cable damages in the Baltic Sea are investigated.

Officials from the three countries and China will “collectively inspect the ship,” Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen told reporters on Thursday. He said his nation coordinated the move after two days of meetings between the four nations. Denmark also has an observer onboard, he said.

“There has been interest from the countries that have experienced damage to cables, and from Denmark because the ship has sailed in Danish waters, in getting to the bottom of this matter,” Lokke Rasmussen said.

Swedish police said in a separate statement that Chinese authorities are conducting the investigations aboard the vessel, and have invited Sweden onboard “in an observer role.”

A high-speed fiber optic cable connecting Finland and Germany was cut in mid-November by what was likely an external impact, while a nearby link between Lithuania and Sweden was also damaged. Yi Peng 3 was in the vicinity of two cables when it happened.

Sweden, Finland and Lithuania are working together to investigate the cause of the broken cables. However, the onboard investigations on Yi Peng 3 are not part of this probe, and no investigative measures will be carried out by Sweden boarding the ship Thursday, Swedish police said in a statement on Thursday.

--With assistance from Christopher Jungstedt.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Bulker Accused of Cutting Baltic Cables May Have Tried Once Before

Yi Peng 3 passes under the Great Belt Bridge (Storebaelt Bridge webcam)

Published Dec 18, 2024 11:33 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

 

European investigators believe that the Chinese bulker Yi Peng 3 intentionally severed two subsea cables in the Baltic last month, likely on behalf of Russian intelligence services. This week, Danish news station TV2 found evidence that Yi Peng 3 may have attempted to snag three other subsea cables in the Kattegat, ten days before the suspected attack in the Baltic. 

On Nov. 17-18, two subsea cables suddenly broke off the coast of Sweden. Based on AIS data, Swedish authorities know that the bulker was maneuvering oddly at the sites where the cables were severed; in addition, photos of the ship's bow show that one of its anchors is badly twisted, and an ROV inspection of the damaged cable sites showed clear signs of anchor-dragging. Yi Peng 3 has been anchored just outside of the Danish territorial seas off Jutland ever since, guarded by Danish and German vessels - though no boarding has occurred, since she is in international waters and her flag state (China) has yet to grant permission. 

Over the last few weeks, Danish news outlet TV2 - in conjunction with TV4 and Nordic Defense Analysis - examined Yi Peng 3's AIS record in detail, including data from her inbound transit as she headed for Ust-Luga, Russia. They found that on November 7, off Laeso in the middle of the Kattegat, Yi Peng 3 slowed down and came to a stop while passing over three subsea cables. 

The maneuver looked suspicious, and there was no obvious reason for a commercial bulker to stop at that location. TV2 decided to investigate further and brought in mini-ROV firm BluEye Robotics to do a site survey. After a short boat trip out to the Kattegat and a few hours of ROV inspection, they found a long dragline and a deep impression, much like the imprint of a dropped anchor. The location and direction of the single dragline corresponded precisely with Yi Peng 3's AIS track from November 7.

"When we look at the sonar recordings, we can see that there are a number of parallel tracks down there, and then over a longer distance there is a much larger drag track, which also has the same course as Yi Peng 3 had," confirmed analyst Jens Wenzel Kristoffersen of Nordic Defense Analysis, speaking to TV2. "It's striking."

Denmark expects Chinese ship probed over

 

cut cables to depart

By AFP
December 19, 2024

Denmark’s foreign minister said Thursday that he expected a Chinese ship, anchored off the Danish coast and linked to two severed undersea cables, would be able to leave once an inspection which included four countries was completed.

Sections of two telecom cables were cut on November 17 and 18 in Swedish territorial waters of the Baltic Sea.

Suspicions have been directed at a Chinese ship — the Yi Peng 3 — which according to ship tracking sites had sailed over the cables around the time they were cut.

The Yi Peng 3 has remained anchored in international waters in the Kattegat strait between Sweden and Denmark since November 19.

“Representatives of the Chinese authorities are conducting investigations aboard the vessel and have invited the Swedish authorities to take part in an observer role,” Swedish police said in a statement Thursday.

It added that “no investigative measures will be taken by the Swedish Police Authority aboard the vessel.”

Police stressed that the “investigations taking place on the vessel on Thursday are not part of the police investigation.”

Police also said the visit was facilitated by Danish authorities and that the Swedish Accident Investigation Authority would also take part.

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen told Danish media that representatives from four countries — China, Sweden, Germany and Finland — were aboard the ship.

– Mounting tensions –

Rasmussen added that a Danish representative was also there “due to the facilitating role we have played”, referring to meetings held between the country at the foreign affairs ministry in Copenhagen earlier this week.

“It is our expectation that once the inspection is completed by this group of people from the four countries, the ship will be able to sail to its destination,” Rasmussen said.

European officials have said they suspect sabotage linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Kremlin has rejected the comments as “absurd” and “laughable”.

Sweden in late November requested China’s cooperation in the investigation, but Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson stressed that there was no “accusation” of any sort.

Early on November 17, the Arelion cable running from the Swedish island of Gotland to Lithuania was damaged.

The next day, the C-Lion 1 submarine cable connecting Helsinki and the German port of Rostock was cut south of Sweden’s Oland island, around 700 kilometres (435 miles) from Helsinki.

Tensions have mounted around the Baltic Sea since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

In September 2022, a series of underwater blasts ruptured the Nord Stream pipelines that carried Russian gas to Europe, the cause of which has yet to be determined.

In October 2023, an undersea gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia was shut down after it was damaged by the anchor of a Chinese cargo ship.