Friday, December 20, 2024

Opinion

Elon Musk potentially donating millions to Reform UK is a symptom of a broken system which allows big money to dominate our politics



Today
Left Foot Forward

When it comes to political donations, Musk is not the problem




Elon Musk is not the problem. At least, to be more precise, when it comes to political donations, Musk is not the problem. The problem is the framework of law that would allow any foreign citizen living abroad to make a multi-million pound donation, via a UK company, to a UK political party.

This is worth spelling out up front because – as I found during a recent media appearance – concern at the prospect of Musk’s donation is too easily politicised. This is not about Musk, the man. The politics and politicians he promotes, whatever one’s own views, have no less right to seek funding. At issue is the extent to which big money has been allowed to dominate our politics.

Let’s be clear – Musk would not be taking advantage of a loophole. The rules as they stand would allow him freely to donate as much money as he wants through the UK arm of one of his companies, most likely X. This would even be true for a company that – unlike X – registers no profits and pays no tax in the UK.

Transparency International (TI) recently revealed that from 2001 to 2024, £115 million in political donations came from dubious or unknown sources, including companies that have never recorded profits. £48.2 million was linked to donors accused of seeking influence or honours, and £42 million from individuals suspected of corruption, fraud, or money laundering.

Existing regulation and legislation are clearly not fit for purpose, a situation compounded by recent policy changes. The previous government’s decisions to raise spending limits and the threshold for registering donations – while blocking an amendment to the National Security Bill that would have mandated anti-money laundering checks on political donations – has hampered transparency and tilted power further in favour of those with the deepest pockets.

Unincorporated Associations (UAs) are especially problematic. These groups, the sources of whose funding can be shrouded in secrecy, funneled over £38 million into the system in just over two decades, according to TI. Little wonder the Committee on Standards in Public Life described UAs as a “route for foreign money to influence UK elections.”

Countries across the democratic world are having to grapple with the dual risk of foreign manipulation and, as Radek Sikorski, Foreign Minister of Poland and someone intimately familiar with fighting Russian interference, told The News Agents podcast, “the oligarchisation” of politics. We should listen when he says “big money in politics is not good for democracy.”

It should not have taken the political threat posed by Elon Musk’s possible donation to push the government to strengthen donation rules, but better late than never. Nonetheless a narrow focus on tackling foreign interference would be a mistake if it leaves big money donations from wealthy UK donors untouched.

A single £4 million donation from Musk – with speculation it could go even higher – would be an undeniable game-changer in British politics. But the same would be true – at least on the financial level – of a UK citizen doing the same. Filings to the end of Q3 show Reform UK has taken a little under £4.5 million in donations this year – already a sixteen-fold increase on where they were in 2023. £100k+ donors make up around 85% of their income. It strains credulity to believe that Musk – or any of these big donors – would not want anything in return for their investment.

This problem of political capture, either by wealthy mega donors or malign overseas interests, is the cost of unlimited donations. Capping donations, Unlock Democracy recommends at £5,000 annually, whilst insufficient on its own to eliminate the risk entirely, is now unavoidable.

It’s pleasing that the new anti-corruption champion, Baroness Margaret Hodge, has expressed support for a donations cap, as well as greater transparency in respect of political donations. “For example”, Baroness Hodge recently told peers, “for all donations over £200, we should know the identity of the donor.”

We agree. Lowering registration thresholds for donations is another key plank of what must be a comprehensive package of reform. Mandatory anti-money laundering checks on all political donations would also enhance scrutiny of their true origins and weed out dark money.

In line with the principle of no foreign interference in UK elections, the government should legislate to ban foreign organisations or individuals from funding non-party campaigners or buying campaign advertising in the UK. Private donations should also be restricted to UK citizens living in the UK.

If the government won’t adopt our strict cap of £5,000 for genuine UK company donations, corporate donations should be limited to businesses with a demonstrable record of trading in the UK, capped at the company’s net profits after tax from the previous two years. And, perhaps most complicated of all, the rules around Unincorporated Associations need a major revamp to ensure illicit and inappropriate funding cannot seep into our politics.

At this time of year, I am reminded of Latin lessons as a boy. Ex umbra in solem: from the shadow into the light. Christmas celebrations, Christian or secular, are perfused by light. It’s too late now to wish for wholesale political finance reform for Christmas, but the government’s proposals, when they come, could do worse than channel the Christmas spirit. Let in the light.


Tom Brake is Director of Unlock Democracy


Image credit: Daniel Oberhaus – Creative Commons
Elon Musk says only far-right AfD party 'can save Germany'

WHAT DO EXPECT FROM AN AFRIKANER


Protesters are shown demonstrating against the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany in Hanover, Germany, on Dec. 2, 2017. American billionaire Elon Musk on Friday tweeted strong support for the party, which has been classified by German authorities as a right-wing extremist group. File Photo by Filip Singer/EPA-EFE

Dec. 20 (UPI) -- U.S. billionaire Elon Musk on Friday said "only" the far-right Alternative for Germany party, currently running second in German polls with about 19% support nationwide, can "save" the country.

In a post on his wholly-owned social media platform X, the world's richest man gave the full-throated endorsement for the AfD while reposting a video by Naomi Seibt, a German right-wing social media influencer.

Germans are expected to vote in snap elections on Feb. 23. A conservative coalition headed by the Christian Democratic Union's Friedrich Merz is leading in the polls with about 32%.

"Only the AfD can save Germany," Musk wrote over Seibt's video, in which she blasts Merz for being "horrified by the idea" that Germany should follow the examples of Musk and Argentine President Javier Milei in espousing right-wing populism.

Related
Germany's far-right AfD secures 'huge success' in eastern state elections

Merz "staunchly rejects a pro-freedom approach and refuses any discussion with the AfD," Seibt wrote.

Friday's post is not the first time Musk has expressed support for the AfD, which is classified by German domestic intelligence authorities as a suspected right-wing extremist party.

In June, the close adviser to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump wrote that he did not view the AfD as an extremist organization. Those remarks came after reports circulated that AfD representatives met with extremist groups in which they discussed the mass expulsion or "remigration" of foreigners and Germans with migrant backgrounds.

The AfD quickly amplified Musk's statement on Friday.

"If you also want to save Germany, then join in and fill out the membership application right away," the party posted on X, while AfD leader Alice Weidel wrote in English to Musk, "You are absolutely right," and blasted what she called the "Soviet European Union" and labeled former conservative German Chancellor Angela Merkel a "socialist."

Musk's intervention into German politics elicited a cautious reaction from the lame-duck government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who told reporters in Berlin that while freedom of speech applies to billionaires such as him, that freedom "also means that you can say things that are not right and do not contain good political advice."

Harsher criticism came from other German political figures.

Matthias Miersch, secretary general of Scholz's Social Democrats, called the remarks "election interference," telling the news portal T-Online Musk's remarks are an "alarming signal" and declared, "We are clearly opposed to that. Germany needs neither foreign influences nor Trumpism. Stay out, Elon."

The head of the CDU's workers' wing, Dennis Radtke, told the German newspaper Handelsblatt it is "threatening, irritating and unacceptable that a key figure in the future U.S. government is interfering in the German election campaign," adding that Musk is becoming more and more of a "threat to democracy in the Western world" and has "converted X into a disinformation machine."



Anger after Musk backs German far right



By AFP
December 20, 2024

Elon Musk has weighed in on German politics again on his platform X - Copyright AFP ULISES RUIZ

Sam Reeves

A post from Elon Musk on his platform X claiming that only the far-right AfD party can “save Germany” sparked accusations Friday that he was seeking to interfere in the country’s upcoming election.

The billionaire, set to play a key role in US President-elect Donald Trump’s administration as “efficiency czar”, posted the message over a video commentary about the leader of Germany’s centre-right CDU party Friedrich Merz.

The video criticised Merz, on course to become the next chancellor after February elections according to polls, for his refusal to work with the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD), currently polling in second place.

The German government was at pains to avoid any strong comment, but lawmakers from across mainstream parties, which have all ruled out cooperating with the AfD, reacted with outrage to Musk’s comment.

“It is threatening, irritating and unacceptable for a key figure in the future US government to interfere in the German election campaign,” Dennis Radtke, an MEP for the centre-right CDU, told the Handelsblatt daily.

Germans are set to go to the polls on February 23 after the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition last month in a row over the budget.

Radtke called Musk a “threat to democracy in the Western world”, accusing the world’s richest man of turning X, previously called Twitter, into a “disinformation slingshot”.

Alex Schaefer, a lawmaker from Scholz’s centre-left Social Democrats, said Musk’s post was “completely unacceptable”.

“We are very close to the Americans, but now bravery is required towards our friend. We object to interference in our election campaign,” Schaefer told the Tagesspiegel daily.

Former finance minister Christian Lindner, from the pro-business FDP party, said that some of Musk’s ideas had “inspired” him but urged the Tesla boss not to “rush to conclusions from afar”.

“While migration control is crucial for Germany, the AfD stands against freedom, business — and it’s a far-right extremist party,” tweeted the politician, whose fallout with Scholz triggered the coalition’s implosion.

Scholz himself was restrained when asked about Musk’s comments, noting: “We have freedom of expression, which also applies to multi-billionaires”.

He added that this “means that you can say things that are not right and do not contain good political advice”.

– Musk meddling concerns –

For its part, the AfD warmly welcomed Musk’s praise with co-leader Alice Weidel thanking him in a video message, and saying her party was “the one and only alternative for our country”.

At a regular press conference in Berlin, a government spokesman avoided commenting directly on Musk’s post, reiterating Scholz’s point that Germany respects freedom of expression.

But she added the government was worried about “how X has developed in recent years, especially since Elon Musk took over”.

Despite such concerns, the government had decided not to close its accounts on the platform as it remained an important channel for reaching out to people, she said.

It is not the first time Musk has weighed in on German politics.

Last month he tweeted in German that “Olaf is a fool” after the collapse of Scholz’s government — with the chancellor responding that the comments were “not very friendly”.

And last year Musk said Berlin-funded migrant rescue operations in the Mediterranean could be seen as an “invasion” of Italy.

Tesla has a factory outside Berlin, and Musk visited Germany ahead of the last national elections in 2021, meeting with Armin Laschet, who was then the candidate for the CDU/CSU bloc to become chancellor.

Laschet went on to lead the conservatives to their worst-ever results at the polls.

There have also been concerns in Britain that Musk is taking a close interest in the country’s political scene, appearing to cosy up to hard-right firebrand lawmaker Nigel Farage.



UK

Labour’s drift to the right could risk Keir Starmer being a one-term prime minister


Opinion
Today
Left Foot Forward.



The government's honeymoon has been short lived.



After 14 years of Conservative rule, on 5th July 2024 Labour Party formed the UK’s government under the premiership of Sir Keir Starmer. It came to power on the back of anti-Tory sentiments rather than any specific radical policies. Due to quirks of the first-past-the-post voting system it secured 411 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons on the back of 33.7% of the votes cast, giving it a simple majority of 172.

The government’s honeymoon has been short-lived. By November, Labour lost over 40% of local council by-election seats that it was defending. Some might dismiss this as the wobbles of a new government, but is more than that. The party’s vote share has fallen in 80% of local authority by-elections, and in almost half, its vote share fell by at least 10%. By December an opinion poll reported that that 70% of the voters are dissatisfied with the government, and 61% are dissatisfied with the Prime Minister’s performance, and only 26% intend to vote labour.

What has gone wrong? Labour fought the election with the incessant promise of ‘change’ but so far voters have mainly seen continuation of Conservative policies, or even worse with the party moving to the right of Tories on many issues. Vast majority of the population has seen no positive material change to their economic circumstances.

Labour didn’t come to office with a radical or redistributive agenda. It quashed people’s hopes for change by continuing with the Conservative two-child benefit cap, which prevents parents from claiming child tax credit or universal credit for more than two children. Some 5.2m children, 36% of all children, live in poverty; and 55% live in families with three or more children. The abolition of the two-child benefit cap would have cost the public purse between £2.5bn and £3.6bn in 2024/25 and lifted about half a million children out of acute poverty. The government chose not to do so.

This was followed by the abolition of the universal winter fuel payments (WFP) of between £100 and £300 to retirees receiving the state pension. Even the Tories didn’t adopt such a policy. Some 10m pensioners have lost the right. In general, the WFP is now only given to pensioners receiving pension credit (PC), which is available to a single pensioner with weekly income below £218.15, or less than £332.95 for a couple. Before the abolition, 1.4m pensioners claimed PC and another 880,000 were eligible but did not claim as they could not cope with the bureaucracy. Despite the increase in applications for PC, over 700,000 are expected to miss out. Then there are pensioners trapped between the income ceiling and poverty line and will miss out on WFP. Altogether, thousands of pensioners will be worse-off, just when energy prices are rising.

Women born in the 1950s have long claimed that they were e not properly informed of the increase in state pension age from 60 to 66. In March 2024, an ombudsman’s report concluded there had been maladministration and injustice by a government department during the years of the last Conservative government. It recommended a public apology and compensation. In December 2024, the Labour government issued a public apology but has refused to offer any compensation, alienating millions of women.

The less well-off were hit with further disappointment by the government’s adherence to Conservative tax policies. In 2021-22, the Conservative government froze income tax thresholds. Tax free annual personal allowance was frozen at £12,570. With the effect of inflation, the real tax burdens increased and more people became liable to pay income tax. With 16m people living in poverty, the Labour government could have alleviated poverty by changing the tax thresholds, but the October 2024 budget did not. The Chancellor said that from April 2028, just before the next general election, these personal tax thresholds will be uprated in line with inflation”. In 2021-22, some 31m people paid income tax. By 2028-29, that number is expected to surpass 40m.

Household budgets have been depressed by corporate profiteering. Corporate profiteering is rife. Since the pandemic, electricity and gas supply companies increased their profit margins by 363%, oil and gas companies more than doubled their margins. Profit margins at Centrica, owner of British Gas jumped from 0.8% before the pandemic to 60% in 2022. Energy bills continue to rise. Some 3.7m households in England are living in fuel poverty. Labour has done nothing to curb profiteering.

Household budgets in England and Wales have been hit hard by privatised water companies. They have hiked bills in real terms and neglected investment. Around one trillion litres of water a year are lost in leaks, and sewage is dumped in rivers for 3.6m hours. Instead of investing in infrastructure they have paid over £85bn in dividends, mostly financed by borrowing over £65bn. Around one-third of customer bills are swallowed by debt and dividend payments. Most water companies are teetering on the edge of financial bankruptcy, but the Conservative government refused to renationalise water. Labour has continued with that policy even though 82% of the popular opinion favours nationalisation. The Water (Special Measures) Bill, essentially a Bill drafted by the last Conservative government, enables the government to restructure the industry and hand it back to the private sector. Shareholders are reluctant to invest. So, customers are being forced to bailout companies. Ofwat, the regulator, has hoisted average water and sewage bill increase of 36% (£157) for the next five years.

Labour’s 2024 election manifesto promised to bring rail passenger services back into public ownership. However, that isn’t quite what the Passenger Railway Services (Public Ownership) Act 2024 delivers. A publicly-owned company will operate passenger services but it will not own rolling stock, which will continue to be leased from private companies. The three leading rolling stock companies make over £1 billion a year profit and this would be guaranteed by the government, reducing resources available for other areas.

It isn’t just in financial and public service matters that the Labour government has embraced right-wing policies; it has done so in other arenas too. For example, through the Financial Services and Markets Act 2023 and other laws the Conservative government began a new phase of deregulation of the finance industry, effectively reversing the reforms introduced after the 2007-08 financial crash. This included dilution of consumer protection, requiring regulators to promote growth of the industry, ending the bonus cap and reducing capital requirements. Labour has accelerated deregulation and the Chancellor has told regulators to tear up rules and encourage more risk-taking even though regulators have warned that deregulation will attract more criminals and sharp practices to the City.

People judge the success or failure of a government by assessing its impact on their disposable income. Early impressions are important and lasting. The Starmer-led government has alienated women, families and pensioners by depressing their incomes. The cost-of-living crisis continues as the government has made no attempt to curb corporate profiteering, possibly under the mistaken belief that this will somehow revive economic growth. On tax, water, rail and the finance industry, its policies are not that different from the Conservatives.

Labour promised ‘change’ but has adopted too many Conservative policies. This is set to continue with a promised fraud, error and debt bill, effectively a revival of the Conservative Data Protection and Digital Information Bill. It will enable the government to 24/7 snoop on the bank accounts of anyone receiving benefits administered by the Department of Work and Pensions. The snooping will not require any court order and people will have no right of appeal. The Bill assumes that all recipients of benefits are criminal and will have no right to financial privacy.

In principle, Labour’s drift to the right can be checked by debate but the leadership is authoritarian and has closed spaces for discussion. During the last Labour government’s term in office from 1997 to 2010, no MP had his/her whip withdrawn for showing dissent. All that changed within the first three weeks of the Starmer-led government even though it has a huge majority in the Commons. Seven Labour MPs had whip withdrawn for opposing the two-child benefit cap. Left-leaning candidates were purged before the July 2024 election. Since the election, experienced left-leaning MPs have been removed from parliamentary committees and replaced with newcomers towing the leadership’s line. Local party branches are emasculated. Critical motions at party conferences carry no weight and are ignored by the leadership. In such an environment, there is little critical evaluation of the government’s policies. There is a real danger that without a major change in policies this could turn out to be a one-term Labour government.


Prem Sikka is an Emeritus Professor of Accounting at the University of Essex and the University of Sheffield, a Labour member of the House of Lords, and Contributing Editor at Left Foot Forward.
How Justin Trudeau Alienated Canada’s Working Class
12.20.2024 
JACOBIN

Canada, like the US and other countries, is grappling with acute political dealignment. Plummeting working-class support for center-left parties highlights the failure of liberal policies and the appeal of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s populism.


Justin Trudeau on the third day of the G7 Summit on June 28, 2022, near Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany. (Sean Gallup / Getty Images)

With Justin Trudeau’s cabinet in revolt, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre will likely be Canada’s next prime minister. Liberals and leftists lampoon him for his dorky anti-charisma, fearmongering about crime, and plans to overthrow the constitution. And yet his polling numbers are so high — nearly double Trudeau’s Liberals — that even a large sampling error will not stop him. Among his supporters are large swaths of the working class. Why are they flocking to him?

Squeezed between a center left that ignores the cost of living and a pro-business Conservative Party that presents itself as the champion of the ordinary people, many working-class voters are choosing the latter. After nearly a decade of Trudeau’s leadership — propped up by the social democratic New Democratic Party (NDP) from 2022 until their recent withdrawal of support — voters feel they gave the Liberals ample opportunity to improve their lives. Instead, they got higher rent and stagnant wages. Frustrated, they are now willing to overlook Poilievre’s regressive policies in hopes of change.

The Liberal Honeymoon

The Liberal renaissance began in 2015. After a decade under Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper, voters sought a center-left alternative, fueled by climate change protests and indigenous rights movements like Idle No More. Liberal leader Trudeau appealed to urban, socially liberal demographics with promises of decolonization, proportional representation, and drug reform. While most of these promises were broken, those that were fulfilled — such as marijuana legalization and support for refugees — boosted his popularity. His charming smile and a housing market in which the average Canadian home cost less than half a million dollars also played a role.

The golden years soon melted away. Before the 2019 election, Trudeau was faced with the SNC-Lavalin Scandal, in which he pressured the minister of justice and attorney general Jody Wilson-Raybould to halt the prosecution of a corrupt construction company. A few months later, a photo of him grinning in blackface surfaced, smudging his progressive image.

Two opposing social movements helped Trudeau survive the fallout. On the Right, Maxime Bernier, after losing the Conservative leadership election to Andrew Scheer, formed the People’s Party. Its climate denialism and xenophobic platform earned only 1.6 percent of the vote, but this small share split the Conservative base, costing the party seats. On the Left, over one million Canadians joined the global climate strike just weeks before the election. Despite the Liberals’ pro-pipeline policy, they leveraged the moment’s momentum to emphasize their carbon tax plan. While carbon taxes are flat consumption taxes and therefore not inherently progressive, the Conservatives’ attacks on the policy alienated many suburban voters.

The Liberals narrowly won reelection but were reduced to a minority government. Months later, COVID-19 swept the world. In the face of mass fatalities and economic devastation, the Liberal’s decisive response stood in sharp contrast to President Donald Trump’s downplaying of the COVID threat and the scandals surrounding UK government officials partying during lockdown. Voters rallied behind their government and the Liberals skyrocketed in the polls. Hoping to regain a majority, Trudeau called a snap election in 2021. However, many voters thought it was unnecessary, and his popularity again declined.

Once again, Trudeau benefited from division on the Right. Conservative leader Erin O’Toole opposed mandatory vaccination, but refrained from outright denial of COVID’s severity or vaccine efficacy. In contrast, the People’s Party embraced COVID denialism and anti-vaccine rhetoric. Although they won no seats, their vote share tripled, again splitting the right-wing vote. The Liberals’ share of the vote declined, but they gained seats, thanks to the fractured opposition. Without the People’s Party, Trudeau’s tenure could have ended in 2021.

Poilievre’s Rise

After winning three elections in a row, it seemed nothing could stop “Teflon” Trudeau. But trouble was brewing. House prices had been rapidly rising for decades, culminating in one of the worst affordability crises in the world by the early 2020s. Home prices had already spiraled out of control, but COVID-19 exacerbated the problem further as rents outstripped wages and supply chain disruptions stalled new construction. Inflation further strained household budgets, and corporations took advantage of the situation to raise prices on essentials like groceries. The pandemic claimed nearly 60,000 Canadian lives.

Against this backdrop, Trudeau’s progressive image was losing its shine. In addition to his inability to do anything about the housing market and extortionate grocery costs, he failed to meet his government’s own climate targets, pushed pipelines through sovereign indigenous land, and maintained staunch support for Israel.

Poilievre was quick to turn the situation to his advantage, rhetorically sympathizing with the working class, while maintaining pressure on Trudeau. First, he had to unite the Right. He publicly supported the Trucker Convoy, shaking hands with protesters that shut down Ottawa. Promising to help Canadians “gain control of their lives,” he won back right-wing voters while appealing broadly to those suffering from high unemployment and inflation. His message resonated so strongly that he secured two-thirds of the votes in the Conservative leadership race, the best result in over two decades.

Poilievre built up a mass following through viral, clickbait-style videos. In one, titled “Two homes. 20 minutes apart,” he contrasts a small house that costs $570,000 with a much larger one that costs $210,000. The difference? Standing at the border in Niagara Falls, the former is in Canada and the latter is in the United States. The video has nearly a million views.

Of course, viral videos alone do not guarantee success. But they do underscore the resonance of Poilievre’s populist rhetoric. At times, his language sounds less like his neoliberal idol Friedrich Hayek and more like Bernie Sanders. Trudeau is “taking from the have-nots to give to the have-yachts” he claims, railing against “a government of elites and self-serving snobs who look down on ordinary working-class Canadians.” He has also asked, “Shouldn’t our working class be better off today than it was forty years ago?”


Neither Trudeau nor the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh have effectively countered this messaging. While Trudeau has acknowledged that the economy could be doing better, he has defended his record, touting the government’s low deficit. Singh has condemned the housing crisis, but the NDP’s support for the Liberals has tied the two parties together in voter’s eyes, resulting in low support.

Working-Class Vote


Poilievre exemplifies a wider trend of political dealignment in the West, with working-class voters moving away from left and center-left parties and toward the Right. In Canada, dealignment began as early as 2004, when Harper united the Right and became prime minister.

A recent poll found Poilievre’s Conservative Party leading across all income classes, with only an 8-point difference between the lower- and upper-income support. The same pattern holds for the Liberals. Only the NDP’s support drops significantly as income increases. Notably, Poilievre also leads among union members.

Critics might point to Poilievre’s anti-worker and anti-union record as evidence that working-class voters are acting against their own interests. But this raises a key question: Why now? Why have things changed? Why is the working class withdrawing its historical support of center-left and left-wing parties?

The answer lies in the failure of those parties. Over the past two decades, the Liberals have consistently failed the working class, while the NDP has drifted to the center, abandoning its socialist roots. From 2022 to the fall of this year, the NDP supported the Liberals through a supply and confidence agreement, achieving only modest victories, like the gradual rollout of national dental care for Canadian households earning less than $90,000 per year.

It’s not that voters are enthusiastic about Poilievre; like all party leaders, Poilievre has a negative net approval rating. Many working-class Canadians are so disillusioned that they’ve stopped voting altogether, contributing to declining turnout. But those who do vote hear Poilievre’s message clearly: reject the status quo and stand up for the working class. They may not like him or fully trust him, but lacking better options, they are willing to give him a chance.

Stopping Poilievre


Liberals and leftists have tried to counter Poilievre’s rise by fact-checking his statements. Others note that Poilievre is not a populist outsider, but a career politician. But as with Trump, fact-checking and denunciation will likely have little effect. As long as Poilievre rails against a status quo from which working people have seen no benefit — and as the Liberals and the NDP continue to fail the working class — frustrated voters will turn to Poilievre.

A better strategy is to expose Poilievre’s faux populism. Poilievre is right about how bad the housing crisis is. But his solution — cutting taxes — will benefit investors while leaving everyone else behind. His plan to tackle unemployment is to spur economic growth through tax cuts so everyone gets more of the growing pie. In other words, he is offering warmed-over trickle-down economics disguised as populism, blaming the Bank of Canada for inflation while letting corporations off the hook.

But exposing Poilievre is only half the battle. To defeat him, a socialist alternative is needed. This means advancing economic policies that directly address working-class interests, promoting working-class candidates to reshape party policy and platforms, and revitalizing the labor movement to build a mass working-class politics.

These solutions won’t come easily or quickly. The first step is to clear the deck for meaningful action by acknowledging that, while Poilievre may be a liar, his message resonates because liberal social progressivism has done very little to improve the lives of most working people. With an actual alternative in place, Poilievre’s message will no longer seem radical but rather a farcical attempt to protect the rich.

Contributors
Aidan Simardone is an immigration lawyer and writer. His work is featured in Counterpunch, the New Arab, and Canadian Dimension.

 December 2024 Kate Sharpley Library Bulletin online

KSL: Bulletin of the Kate Sharpley Library No. 116, December 2024 has just been posted on our site: https://www.katesharpleylibrary.net/4qrh89. The pdf is up at https://www.katesharpleylibrary.net/79cqdz

Contents:
Salvador Puig Antich: verdict overturned."After years of campaigning by his sisters, the Spanish government overturned the verdict on the 16th October 2024."

Some recent additions by Barry Pateman "What it really should say is something like “some items that have just about made it to the catalogue – well nearly anyway!”"

Licia Pinelli (1928-2024) by the Centro Studi Libertari / Archivio G. Pinelli "We will surely remember her great determination and extraordinary commitment throughout her life in the struggle for truth and justice – not only regarding the fate of her husband Pino Pinelli – that made her an outstanding figure in the history of twentieth-century Italy."

Anarchist Communist Memories of the Miners Strike [Pamphlet Review] "It’s good to have an anarchist communist view, and one from the potteries. Most importantly, this is history that means something: ‘What remains an enduring impact for me is the experience that class struggle changes people.'"

[The Freedom Press Library in 1979: Plans and problems] "That we do want to have a working anarchist library no one can surely doubt seeing that we have never stopped adding contemporary material to it. But what form should an anarchist library take? What purpose should it serve? Who are the kind of people we should seek to attract? Indeed what kind of material should it house? And how should the material be classified?"

Racism : knowing our enemies [1985] by Liverpool DAM "We must combat racism at all times. We know that NO-ONE is racially superior or more important. The real enemy are the bosses and their police."

Valerie Powels (1950-2011) "a Birmingham anarchist who wound up in Barcelona."

Remembering Kate Austin, Missouri anarchist & feminist "From the farm she shared with husband Sam in Missouri, Austin was an integral part of the anarchist movement and its press and took part in debates about anarchism, tactics, feminism and reproductive rights."

A Woman’s View of It by Kate Austin "If love is put in a cage, or fettered in any way, it is no longer love, but a ghastly nameless thing, that blasts the living and curses the unborn."

The Workers and the Strike by Kate Austin "No one need be discouraged over the war of contrary ideas, Agitation forces men to think; and human thought will in time kill government. But it is well to recognize all that the people must unlearn before they can question the all-powerful State. They, in common with their masters, consider property rights more sacred than life. As long as they do, they disarm themselves and arm their foes."

Library Notes Dec. 2024 (only a fraction of what won't fit)

A workman is sitting on a tram... by Bernabé García Polanco "A workman is sitting on a tram in the 1930s reading a copy of Solidaridad Obrera when a priest takes a seat opposite him."

 About the Syrian revolution, by Lebanese writer and anarchist Elia Ayoub

The Syrian revolution started off as a bottom-up, working class uprising from the peripheries organised through local coordination committees. They set up local councils throughout the liberated areas that coordinated to provide services in the absence of a state.
They actually experienced life without the state, and they thrived. They were the living proof that not only can it be done, but that it can be fun and meaningful. Libraries, clinics, hospitals, schools, soup kitchens and more - all organised by the people who belonged to their communities.
There’s nothing romantic about all of this. There were challenges, ups and downs, loads of failures, but also an extraordinary amount of successes. The anarchist Omar Aziz pointed out, correctly, that Syrians lasted more than the Paris commune.

The first thing ppl did once the regime collapsed was liberate the prisons. Carcerality was widely understood as a core component of the regime’s apparatus. He couldn’t just kill everyone every day on the streets. He had to forcibly disappear and kill 100,000s to break communities. And he failed.
As an anarchist I believe that any effort, however flawed, that contributes to a freer world ought to be supported, even if critically. This is why I believe that the Left, broadly speaking, almost everywhere, failed Syrians.
In the 13 years since 2011, as the prisons continued to be filled and turned into the living hells we saw in Saydnaya, the global anti-carceral movement largely ignored Syria. The Western pro-Palestine movement attacked and condemned Syrians and Syrian-Palestinians for revolting against Assad.
The absolute minimum right now is for everyone who failed to listen when the screams were at their loudest - when Aleppo fell, when Homs was decimated, when Daraya was emptied, when Yarmouk was starved, when Daraa’s kids were tortured, when Ghouta was gassed - to be humble and reflect.

There is now a lot of interest in making sure that what comes after Assad is chaotic. The Gulf does not want democracy in the Arab world. Israel and the USA do not want democracy in the Arab world. Turkey, Russia, Iran neither. The Egyptian military dictatorship? Same.
That’s not even including problems from within. The Assad regime annihilated the organised Left over decades, decimated the unions. They sectarianized the population to divide it. The challenges ahead are herculean, but it doesn’t mean that they can’t be overcome.
Again, these are the people who created the local councils and local coordination committees while Assad and Iran and Russia and Hezbollah were besieging, bombing, gassing, torturing and disappearing them. They held elections in hundreds of villages and towns
Pity and charity are not what’s needed here. Pointless ‘I hope it doesn’t get worse’ comments are useless at best and at worst insulting to those who suffered under Assad. Worse than a toddler born of rape in Saydnaya prison? Bodies crushed to be disposed of in mass graves? You monsters.

Samir Kassir understood this long ago. Freedom in Syria is tied to freedom in Palestine is tied to freedom in Lebanon (etc etc). He was just a journalist and a historian and yet so dangerous that he was the *first* to be assassinated by Assad in Lebanon after the prime minister Hariri was killed.

Assad could have killed other politicians with Hezbollah’s help, as he did to Hariri, but no he went for the journalist. Who was the 2nd person killed after Kassir? George Hawi, the ex leader of the Lebanese Communist Party. They were creating a new movement together.
As in Syria, any real alternative to the status quo was assassinated or disappeared in Lebanon. And in both Syria and Lebanon any Palestinian who dared link Palestinian freedom to the freedom of Lebanese and Syrians was pursued with the full savagery of the state. Kassir was all 3 identities.
But what the Assadists did in Lebanon was always a fraction of what they did in Syria. In Lebanon we also knew their Shabbiha well. I was a kid but I remember Assad’s thugs - and that was nothing compared to what they did in Syria.

There are a lot of lessons to learn from what Syrians have gone through. It’s a ridiculously rich and messy and complicated experience, and anyone anywhere can learn from it. Dictators can be toppled. States can be overcome. Imperialism can be defeated.

Elia Ayoub @ayoub@spore.social
Dec 13, 2024

Europe’s leaders boost far right by scapegoating Syrian refugees

The fall of Assad has given some Western countries a political excuse to force Syrian migrants to return to Syria


Syrian migrants are worried about be forced to return to Syria (Picture: World Bank)

By Thomas Foster
Thursday 19 December 2024    
SOCIALIST WORKER Issue 2936

European leaders have used the fall of the bloody Assad regime as an opportunity to ramp up racism against Syrian refugees. They hoped to outflank far right and fascist parties that are gaining ground—but it has only boosted their confidence to demand mass deportations.

European states suspended processing Syrians’ asylum applications in the wake of Assad’s fall. They include Britain, Austria, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Italy, Ireland, Netherlands, Greece, Belgium, Croatia, Switzerland, Poland and Finland.

Over one million Syrian refugees settled in Europe after the Assad regime launched a civil war to destroy the Syrian Revolution of 2011. The intervention of imperialist and regional powers, including the United States, Israel, Turkey and Russia, intensified the refugee crisis.

The majority of Syrian refugees in Europe are in Germany, which hosts almost 60 percent, and Sweden, which hosts 11 percent.

Germany led the way in shutting the door to Syrian refugees, suspending applications at a time when more than 47,000 asylum claims are pending.

This leaves many refugees in a state of utter limbo. One Syrian refugee told The New Arab newspaper, “I have no idea what will happen after that.

“Will they approve my case? Will they deport me? The situation is completely uncertain, and the future is unclear.”

Many Syrians have nothing to return to in Syria, and they would be forced to relive many of the traumas they experienced.

The German coalition of the Labour-type SPD, the Greens and free market FDP collapsed last month, with elections scheduled for February.

The far right Alternative For Germany (AfD), which is led by fascists, made a series of breakthroughs in regional elections this autumn.

The coalition government fuelled its rise by failing working class people and scapegoating refugees. After the Solingen knife attack in August, all the mainstream parties called for a tightening of asylum rules—which only legitimised and boosted the AFD.

AFD co-chair Alice Weidel has demanded Syrian refugees leave en mass straight away. “Anyone in Germany who celebrates a ‘free Syria’ evidently no longer has any reason to flee,” she said. “They should return to Syria immediately.”

In Austria, the Tory-Green coalition government went further. As well as halting any processing of asylum applications from Syrians, it has also launched a review of all cases where asylum has been granted.


‘We must not normalise the AfD’—interview with German anti-fascist

The interior minister, Tory Gerhard Karner, announced, “I have instructed the ministry to prepare a programme of orderly repatriation and deportation to Syria.”

The Tory OVP formed a government even though it came second in the Austrian general election in September. The fascist FPO won the most seats and the OVP-led government wants to out-racist the fascists. But the move only drags politics rightwards, legitimising the anti-refugee racism and the fascists.

The far right is increasingly setting the agenda over immigration, whether it’s in government or in opposition.

This state racism has been met by some resistance. In the Netherlands, Syrian refugees and local activists joined protests organised by Stop Racism and Fascism. There needs to be more of this, with anti-racist activists mobilising to defend refugee rights.

In Britain, the Labour government has suspended around 6,500 asylum seekers after the fall of Assad. That’s part of it ramping up scapegoating partly in a bid to stop Nigel Farage’s far right Reform UK eating into its vote.

It’s scapegoating only lends legitimacy to racist ideas—and helps deliver some of its own voters to Reform UK. Farage opportunistically seizes on issues such as Labour stealing winter fuel payments. But his main appeal is that Reform UK the only party that takes “concerns about immigration” seriously.

Anti-racists have to campaign against Reform UK and the Labour government’s racist scapegoating that fuels it.
Syria: In the shadow of war and revolution

Author Anne Alexander answers your questions on the the fall of the Assad regime, its implications for the Middle East and the prospects for resistance


Protests in 2023 in the city Sweida in Syria

SOCIALIST WORKER 
Tuesday 17 December 2024



What’s the impact of Assad’s fall on the wider Middle East?

The dust from the Assad regime’s collapse will not settle for a long time. There are some immediate winners and losers.

But the long term effect will further intensify competition between the key regional imperialist powers—Turkey, Iran, the Gulf States and Israel.

Turkey’s ruling class is poised to reap significant benefits in the short term—increased influence over Syria and the potential return of millions of Syrian refugees from Turkey. And Turkish companies will look to profit from the rebuilding of Syrian cities such as Aleppo.

Only a few weeks ago, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared to be desperately searching for ways out of the dead end his policies had reached in northern Syria. He wanted to increase Turkish influence and repress Kurdish forces.


But Assad was rebuffing his requests for dialogue. Kurdish forces, which control a large area of north east, had made alliances with both the United States and Russia. That gave them partial ­protection from Turkish pressure.

But as a result of Assad’s fall, Russia’s position inside Syria is now significantly weakened. And incoming president Donald Trump has made clear his desire for the US to “stay out” of the country.

Militias allied to Turkey, such as the Syrian National Army, have launched an offensive against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

The Kurdish autonomous administration in the north east has raised the flag of the new Syrian regime. But tensions still remain high with the new authorities.

Gains for the Turkish ruling class are losses for Iran’s rulers who long treated Syria as a key part of their sphere of influence. Assad’s fall is a blow to the Iranian regime’s decades-long effort to escape the impact of its defeat by Iraq—supported by the US—in 1988.

But these shifts among the regional and global powers aren’t the only impact. Scenes of Syrians rushing to rescue relatives from the regime’s prisons and tearing down statues of the dictator live on TV have had a powerful echo around the region.

The Islamist character of the forces leading this new regime is also important as for years Islamist movements have faced catastrophic defeat.
Is Assad’s fall a defeat for anti-imperialism?  

Support for the “Axis of ­Resistance”—the coalition of Iranian supported forces—was always an insufficient strategy for defeating Western ­imperialism. And it connected together contradictory elements. It helped to transform Hezbollah from a resistance movement against Israel’s occupation of Lebanon into a force in regional politics.

But Hezbollah helped Assad’s counter-revolution. This came at a terrible cost not only to the Syrian people, but also to Hezbollah itself. Israeli forces were able to gather intelligence on Hezbollah’s commanders which they used to plan the deadly bombing raids against leading figures in October.

Assad’s fall reveals the faults of relying on dictators for liberation instead of popular mass movements. Assad’s conscript troops abandoned him—his regime turned out to be completely hollow.

Compare this with the fierce resistance put up by Hezbollah and Hamas—and the Palestinian armed factions that are increasingly active in the West Bank.

But it’s wrong to weigh up the possibilities solely in military terms. Assad’s fall has reawakened memories of the revolutionary wave that shows the struggle for Palestinian liberation from a completely different perspective.

Israel’s siege on Gaza could not endure without the active cooperation of Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi’s regime in Egypt. Former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, killed by Israel this year, backed the Syrian popular uprising back in 2012 from Cairo.

The wave of revolutions that had shaken the Middle East the year before had loosened the grip of dictatorship over Egypt.
What were the Arab revolutions?  

The Egyptian revolution of 2011 was part of a wave of popular uprisings which swept across the Middle East. It started in Tunisia, but quickly triggered the downfall of Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak, before moving into Syria, Yemen, Bahrain and Libya.

Initial uprisings mobilised millions of people in street protests and mass strikes to demand “bread, freedom and social justice”. Although the iconic image of the revolutions was the street protests and massive encampments in city squares, strikes played a central role in the revolutionary wave.

In Tunisia, regional general strikes by the powerful trade union movement transformed what was a rebellion by unemployed youth in provincial towns into a revolution.

Mubarak fell amid a strike wave supported by transport workers, health workers, civil servants, rail workers and telecoms workers. The military factories run by Mubarak’s own generals had been shut down by striking workers. Even journalists on the state-run newspapers had locked the editors out of the newsrooms and taken over news production.

Syria’s uprising in 2011 was an explosion of anger that mobilised millions in creative forms of resistance to the regime. That included mass street protests and local coordinating committees which took over some aspects of government when regime forces withdrew.

But Syria’s revolution lacked a strike wave at its heart. This meant the Assad regime could continue “business as usual” in the capital.

The success of Assad’s counter-revolution was a catastrophe for the Syrian people. Millions were displaced in the war or fled the country altogether, while hundreds of thousands were killed. Syrians also had to endure more years of repression and torture at the hands of the regime.
Why did the Arab revolutions fail?  

There is no one single cause of failure for the uprisings—each followed a distinctive trajectory. But there are common themes. Some popular movements toppled at least the key figureheads and forced discussion of political reforms.

But activists in general sought to preserve, rather than break up, the coercive apparatus of the old regimes. They adopted a “democratic transition model” urged by Western diplomats.

Secondly, they did not take bold steps to address the demands in the streets and workplaces for social justice. Again following “advice” from Western governments, they tried to show that they would act “prudently” by continuing with neoliberal policies. But this alienated workers and the poor who had come onto the streets for the revolution.

In other cases, such as Syria and Libya, the popular uprisings did not make early breakthroughs in the capital cities, allowing the dictators time to organise a fightback.

Muammar Gaddafi in Libya was eventually defeated by the rebel side in the civil war. But Assad clung on to power in Syria with the help of external forces including Iran, Russia and Hezbollah.

The question of Palestinian liberation contributed to the defeat in complex ways. Imagine if the Yarmouk refugee camp near Damascus had not been crushed, and instead intensified revolutionary energy. Haniyeh made Hamas’s public declaration of solidarity with the Syrian revolution nearly a year after the uprising had started. He didn’t want to interfere in the affairs of states hosting Palestinian refugees.

But those states threatened by the popular revolution relied on imperialist and regional powers. The Egyptian army and security forces hold shut the gates of Gaza from the outside. They have received billions in direct aid from the US, which depended on signing the peace treaty with Israel.

This is the crux of the shared interests of Palestinians and Egyptians in revolution, both against the apartheid Israeli state but also against the Egyptian state. The streets of Egypt firmly stood with the Palestinian struggle in 2011.

But larger political forces in Egypt, including the Muslim Brotherhood, refused to call for the dismantling of the treaty with Israel—this would have involved a head-on clash with the army and security forces.

The reformist leaders’ desire to leave the state intact only left weapons in the hands of the counter-revolution.
Is there a potential for mass resistance today?

The Assad regime’s swift collapse showed it had lost its social base. But the new regime has yet to build one.

Many Syrians will support HTS for its role in bringing down Assad. But others will be wary of its track record as an authoritarian and elitist Islamist movement, and fearful of the sectarian past of some of its leaders.

The struggle on the social terrain will be crucial. Will the impoverished majority of Syrians at least have the chance now to organise themselves? Will they be able to force the new government to redistribute wealth as it reconstructs Syria, or will the rebuilding benefit a narrow wealthy layer?

It’s likely that popular organising will revive around several points at once. Firstly, around the question of justice for the disappeared and the martyrs. Secondly, over issues of social justice. Thirdly around resisting Israel’s aggression and solidarity with Palestine. Finally, over the questions of Kurdish autonomy and liberation from all kinds of oppression.
How will the fall of the Assad regime affect Palestine?

Israel’s genocidal assault on Gaza has not slackened while much of the world’s attention has been focused on events in Syria. Israeli forces took advantage of the collapse of Assad to seize more territory inside Syria.

Israel’s prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu announced plans to double the Israeli population of the occupied Golan Heights as HTS approached Damascus. And hundreds of Israeli airstrikes have crippled military bases and facilities across Syria.

Yet there is no guarantee that the new regime in Damascus will be friendly to Israel, even if HTS’s leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani has said he is not looking for “new confrontations”.

Al-Jolani emphasised the need for “reconstruction and stability, not being drawn into disputes that could lead to further destruction”.

But the expansion of Israel’s settlements are a reminder that there can be no real peace or security for Syrians while Palestine is occupied. The fall of Assad means a Syria where Palestinians can organise more freely—no longer do they face the regime’s brutality. This may create a new dynamic.

Hamas was quick to welcome the collapse of Assad’s regime, congratulating Syrians on achieving their “aspirations for freedom and justice”. It is nearly 13 years since Hamas’s leadership publicly backed the uprising against Assad. Hamas condemned him for “killing his own people”.

Indeed, Palestinians within Syria paid a terrible price for the regime’s revenge—Assad’s forces devastated the Yarmouk refugee camp near Damascus.
“ErdoÄŸan Wants to Bring All of Syria Under Turkish Control”

An interview with ÃŽlham Ehmed

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has prompted a fresh power struggle in Syria. ÃŽlham Ehmed, a foreign relations representative for the Kurdish-led autonomous region, spoke to Jacobin about Turkey’s bid to expand its control.



Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivering a speech in Ankara, Turkey, on June 9, 2020. (Adem Altan / AFP via Getty Images)

12.20.2024
JACOBIN


On December 8, Bashar al-Assad boarded a plane to Moscow. His flight marked the end of the Syrian Ba’ath Party and the end of over half a century of rule by the Assad family, who governed the country through torture and intense police surveillance. Since then, many Syrians have been searching for their abducted relatives, and mass graves have been found all over the country. It is estimated that 100,000 people have been arrested and tortured since 2013 alone; over 150,000 are still missing.

There is great joy at the end of the Assad regime, but this is also mixed with fear for the future. The country’s new rulers, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have their roots in ISIS (the so-called Islamic State) and the Al-Nusra Front. Many other groups fear that oppression and repression will now continue under a new flag. These fears are particularly strong in the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES).

A Kurdish-led, quasi-autonomous region, DAANES covers around a third of Syria’s territory and is still not officially recognized by anyone. It has advanced a unique democratic project and push for gender equality, and all positions in its autonomous administration are filled equally by men and women. But it also faces major challenges, in particular the war that Turkey has been waging against it for some years. Turkey launched its first military offensive on the ground in 2016 and has occupied the Afrîn region since 2018, as well as Serê Kaniyê and Girê Spî since 2018. Assad’s downfall has given new impetus to Turkey and the mercenaries it supports. There is currently even a threat of an attack on Kobanê, the city that more than any other symbolizes the fight against ISIS.

ÃŽlham Ehmed is one of DAANES’s two representatives for foreign relations. Ehmed herself is Kurdish and was born in Afrîn. She has been campaigning for a democratic and pluralistic system in the region since 1990. Today she represents the self-administration on an international level and is a key figure for post-Assad Syria. In an interview with Justus Johannsen for Jacobin.de, she explains how the fall of Assad will affect the autonomous administration’s future.
Justus Johannsen

Ms Ehmed, as a Kurdish woman in Syria, you also suffered a lot under the dictator Bashar al-Assad. What does his downfall after thirteen years of war mean to you?
ÃŽlham Ehmed

For years, the Ba’ath regime pursued a brutal policy against the Kurds, including their expropriation and expulsion from their villages in northern Syria, in favor of Arabs who were settled there. This was also known as the “Arab belt” policy. The Kurds were systematically excluded from political activity, and many of those who did engage in politics were arrested and tortured. One example of this repression is the massacre in the QamiÅŸlo stadium on March 12, 2004, when the regime provoked a conflict between Arabs and Kurds, resulting in numerous deaths.The Turkish state is already presenting itself as in charge of Syria and giving instructions on what to do and what not to do.

The Ba’ath regime ignored Syria’s ethnic and religious diversity as well as women’s rights and relied on oppression. The overthrow of this regime was the goal of all Syrians, especially the Kurds, who were striving for freedom and democracy. But this joy is clouded by the current attacks by the Turkish state. Turkey is pursuing a very similar policy of expelling the Kurds and settling Sunni Arabs in the regions it occupies in northern Syria.
Justus Johannsen

Since the occupation of Afrîn by Turkey, the majority of the Kurdish population has been displaced. The Kurdish population fell from 97 percent to less than 35 percent. While armed Islamist groups such as HTS toppled the Assad regime, Turkey has now also begun directly attacking the areas of the DAANES. What is its aim?
ÃŽlham Ehmed

Turkey used the developments in Syria to employ Islamist mercenaries under its control to attack the Til Rifat region, where tens of thousands of refugees from the Afrîn region, which has been occupied since 2018, are living. This led to the displacement of around 150,000 people, who were forced to flee to the self-governing areas east of the Euphrates. As a result, Turkey also attacked the city of Manbij with its mercenary Syrian National Army [SNA]. However, a cease-fire agreement, which provided for the withdrawal of all military units and the establishment of a civilian administration in Manbij, was broken by Turkey and has still not been implemented.

Kurds in particular, who make up around 30 percent of the population of Manbij, and those who were actively involved in the autonomous administration, were forced to flee as they were exposed to attacks by Turkish-sponsored mercenaries. There was looting, displacement, and war crimes. The attack on Manbij was not aimed at liberating the city from the Assad regime but was directed against the majority-Arab Manbij Military Council, which is part of the DAANES. This military council has been protecting the city from attacks by Turkey since its liberation from so-called Islamic State.
Justus Johannsen

What is Turkey’s goal in Syria?
ÃŽlham Ehmed

The Turkish state’s goal is to bring the whole of Syria under its control. It is already presenting itself as the one in charge of Syria and giving instructions on what to do and what not to do. Turkey is now planning to use its Islamist mercenaries to conquer the remaining areas by force. As a NATO member, Turkey is acting in the region in accordance with NATO strategy. Although the US has attempted to resolve the conflict through dialogue, it is clear that Turkey rejects dialogue and is committed to war. It is therefore urgently necessary to take a clear stance against Turkey’s occupation policy and destabilization of the region.
Justus Johannsen

Is an attack on Kobanê and other areas now imminent?
ÃŽlham Ehmed

Yes, the Turkish state’s attacks on Kobanê are continuing, the electricity and water supply has been interrupted and the civilian population there is exposed to great danger. The Turkish state is clearly preparing for an attack on Kobanê, while the population and the Kurdish-Arab-Christian alliance Syrian Democratic Forces [SDF] are making intensive preparations to defend the city. Kobanê is the symbol of the resistance against ISIS and therefore these attacks by the Turkish state must be prevented at all costs.
Justus Johannsen

There are reports of displacement and attacks on the civilian population by SNA mercenaries. What is the humanitarian situation on the ground? How is the local government dealing with the situation?
ÃŽlham Ehmed

Exactly, the SNA is known for its abuses and war crimes. The situation of the civilian population is very bad, as they were surprised by the attacks and had to leave all their belongings behind when they were forced to flee to the areas east of the Euphrates, for fear of the atrocities committed by the Islamist mercenaries. Many of the refugees are now living in the school buildings of the autonomous administration, which has also brought school operations to a partial standstill.

At the same time, there are already many refugees from the Turkish-occupied areas in the areas of autonomous administration in north-eastern Syria, as well as those who have sought refuge here due to the war in Lebanon. We therefore urgently need help to cope with this humanitarian crisis in the face of winter conditions and, in particular, to meet the basic needs of children and the elderly.
Justus Johannsen

At the same time, you are still holding tens of thousands of ISIS supporters in the autonomous areas.
ÃŽlham Ehmed

Yes, there are still around 12,000 so-called Islamic State supporters in the prisons of the autonomous administration, added to their relatives in various camps. The attacks by Turkey naturally exacerbate the danger they pose. Recently, there have been increasing reports of breakout and revolt attempts inside and outside the camps and prisons, and the activities and attacks by ISIS sleeper cells are also on the rise. The operations of the international coalition and the SDF against ISIS are therefore continuing. Yet the threat posed by ISIS, motivated by Turkey’s attacks, remains huge. We are also in a very tense security situation because we are forced to move security personnel to the front line if the war expands. The spread of ISIS fighters poses an incalculable global threat.
Justus Johannsen

How was it possible for HTS to take over large parts of Syria in just eleven days? Didn’t that surprise you?
ÃŽlham Ehmed

We knew that HTS was planning an offensive, but we assumed that they only wanted to take the areas up to the important M5 transportation route. Suddenly, we saw Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and even Damascus being taken after armed groups from the south of Syria joined the offensive. However, these developments were not the result of intense fighting, as the regime put up little resistance and Russia and Iran withdrew their support.The Turkish state and its secret services have long been trying to stir up fear among the Arab population and to provoke a Kurdish-Arab conflict in order to destabilize the region.

It seems that Russia’s capacity was weakened by the Ukraine war and had to withdraw troops from Syria. The Ba’athist regime did not listen to its people or its allies, and persisted in its position, which led to Russia and Iran backing out. Iran and its proxies have suffered heavy defeats in the wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen. In addition, the Iranian armed forces in Syria were bombed and severely weakened by Israel over a long period of time. As a result, Iran was no longer in a position to put up resistance. The regime was now isolated and could not fend off the attacks, which made it relatively easy for the HTS to capture these cities.
Justus Johannsen

What is behind the accusations that the SDF fired on protests by the Arab population in Raqqa, the former ISIS capital in Syria? Is the Kurdish-Arab alliance behind the self-government project not strong enough and now in danger of breaking up?
ÃŽlham Ehmed

The situation is not what it seems. The Turkish state and its secret services have long been trying to stir up fear among the Arab population in the autonomous administration’s regions through manipulative propaganda and to provoke a Kurdish-Arab conflict in order to destabilize the region. We are countering this by seeking open dialogue and advocating joint democratic self-administration by the various population groups.

The recent events in Raqqa are an example of such provocations. During a rally to celebrate the fall of the regime and to welcome the flag of the Syrian revolution, armed men suddenly opened fire on the crowd, resulting in numerous injuries. The Turkish media immediately reported that the SDF had fired on the civilians. However, it later emerged that these men had been deliberately deployed as a provocation. They were arrested and the situation did not escalate as the people of Raqqa understood that the SDF or internal security forces would not simply fire on civilians.
Justus Johannsen

What do you think of the fact that the European Union and the German government are already discussing the return of refugees to Syria? Is a stabilization of the situation even in sight?
ÃŽlham Ehmed

The situation in Syria is uncertain and there is an urgent need for an internal Syrian solution in which the Syrian people themselves decide on their future. A joint national committee involving all regions of Syria is needed to tackle the humanitarian crisis. A fair and transparent system for the distribution of humanitarian aid to the civilian population must be created. We believe that channeling humanitarian aid through the Turkish state in order to portray it as a generous donor is the wrong approach. If the German government and the EU instead advocate a fair and decentralized system, this would ensure that the aid actually reaches those in need.
Justus Johannsen

Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of HTS, which is listed as a terrorist organization by the US and the EU, is a former member of ISIS in Iraq, but he has recently expressed tolerance toward Kurds and other minorities. What do you expect from the new interim government in Damascus?
ÃŽlham Ehmed

It remains to be seen how serious this stance is and whether it will be implemented. The transitional government led by HTS must not become the new regime. A new transitional government must be created that includes Sunnis, Kurds, Christian Arameans, Armenians, Druze, Alawites, and all population groups in Syria, especially women. This is the only way to prepare elections and a new constitution in line with Syria’s social diversity. Regardless of Julani’s background, these principles must apply to a democratic future for Syria.The transitional government led by HTS must not become the new regime.

The regime in Idlib is unacceptable. In particular, the misogynistic attitude of the HTS, which wants to impose head coverings on women, is incompatible with our ideas. Positive statements toward the Kurds must now be put into practice. Kurdish refugees from Turkish-occupied Afrîn must be able to return to their homes, while the Arab population from Ghouta, Idlib, and Daraa, who have been resettled there, should also return. The new transitional government is responsible for this.
Justus Johannsen

The autonomous administration of North and East Syria has now announced a ten-point plan in which it invites all Syrian actors to a joint political dialogue in Syria. What do you think is needed for a peaceful and democratic future in Syria?
ÃŽlham Ehmed

Many are now talking about democracy and peace in Syria, but we need clear principles on how to get there. The autonomous administration initiative in North and East Syria aims above all to create the basis for an honest dialogue on solutions. In our region, the autonomous administration has so far been able to ensure the protection and provision of basic needs for five million people. With the experience we have gained through democratic self-governance, we can also support other regions of Syria.

The achievements of peaceful coexistence between different communities, direct democracy, and, in particular, women’s freedom are unparalleled in the region. In military matters, too, we have always shown our willingness to become part of the Syrian army with the SDF, including the women’s [protection] units of the YPJ, and to live up to our responsibility for the right to self-determination of all the peoples of Syria. Our initiative of the ten-point plan of our autonomous administration aims to reach an all-Syrian agreement, and for us, joint dialogue is the most important basis for this.

Contributors

ÃŽlham Ehmed is cochair of the Department of Foreign Relations of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES).

Justus Johannsen is an activist who writes on social movements and international conflicts.