Saturday, December 28, 2024

 10 Times Faster Than A Bullet: Mastering Of Orbital Alignment Dynamics For SpaDEx Docking – Analysis

SpaDEx Chaser (SDX01) and Target (SDX02) spacecrafts during testing. Photo Credit: Indian Space Research Organisation (GODL-India), Wikipedia Commons

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India is gearing up for an important step in its space journey. On December 30 this year, ISRO will launch the Space Docking Experiment (SpaDEx) using the PSLV-C60 rocket. The launch is scheduled from Sriharikota for 9:58 PM (IST). This mission is a significant milestone, as it will demonstrate India’s ability to dock two spacecraft in orbit, a key technology for future space missions.


Docking is the process of connecting two satellites in space after carefully aligning them. This technology is essential for future missions that ISRO plans to undertake—such as Chandrayaan4 and building India’s own space station, the Bharatiya Antariksh Station

Mission Overview and Goals

In the SpaDEx mission, two satellites—SDX01 (called Chaser) and SDX02 (called Target)—will perform a series of important tasks. First, they will align themselves in the same orbit and then, gradually, move closer to each other. Once close enough, they will connect, share electrical power and then separate again. After separating, the payload on both satellites will continue to operate for the next two years.

A payload is the main equipment, or set of instruments, on a satellite or spacecraft that performs the mission’s purpose, such as cameras, sensors, or communication devices used for research or specific tasks.

India’s reliable Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV-C60) will carry the SDX01 and the SDX02, each weighing 220 kilograms. These satellites will be placed in a 470-kilometre low-Earth (circular) orbit (LEO). After being placed in the targeted orbit, the rocket will give the two satellites a slight difference in speed. This difference will cause the satellites to gradually move apart, creating a distance of about 10 to 20 kilometres between them within a day.

The propulsion system on the Target satellite will be used to stop the two satellites from moving farther away from each other. This means both satellites will keep moving at the same speed while staying 20 kilometres apart. This phase is called the ‘far rendezvous’. Rendezvous means two objects meeting—or coming close together—in space, often after starting from different positions or paths.


Coming to speed, the two satellites will be traveling at an incredible 28,800 kilometres per hour—about 36 times faster than a commercial airplane or 10 times faster than a bullet. To safely dock, the Chaser satellite will slowly approach the Target satellite, step by step, carefully reducing the distance between them. The approach will follow a sequence, closing in gradually from 5 kilometres to 1.5 kilometres, then to 500 metres, 225 metres, 15 metres, 3 metres—finally docking.

Using special  thrusters and advanced sensors, their relative speed will also be reduced to almost zero—around 0.036 kilometres per hour, or just 10 millimeters per second—ensuring a smooth and safe connection. After the satellites connect, they will test transfering electrical power between them. They will also show how both satellites can be controlled as a single unit. Once these tests are complete, the satellites will separate and begin working on their individual tasks using their onboard equipment.

The Chaser satellite is equipped with a high-resolution camera, which is like a smaller version of a surveillance camera. The Target satellite has a multi-spectral device to monitor natural resources and natural vegetation. It also has a radiation monitor to study space radiation and collect data for future use.

Since the satellites are small and lightweight, docking them is more difficult. It needs much greater precision compared to docking larger spacecraft because even tiny mistakes can have a bigger impact.

Mission Wants to Achieve…

This mission, happening at year-end, will achieve many things for the first time. The satellites will use advanced new technologies, including a special docking system and a set of sensors that help them move closer carefully and connect without colliding. They will also use a unique navigation system that calculates their positions and movements in orbit with high accuracy, ensuring everything works smoothly.

So far, only Russia, the US and China have successfully developed this advanced technology and none of them shares the detailed process behind it.

Apart from the docking experiment, the PSLV-C60 rocket will also carry 24 small payloads on its fourth stage, known as PSLV Orbital Experimental Module-4 (POEM-4). These will be activated after the two main satellites are released into space. Of the 24 payloads, 14 are developed by ISRO’s own teams. The remaining 10 come from non-government organizations, including universities and start-ups.

Karnataka’s Role in SpaDEx:

Blend of Academia/Startups

The SpaDEx mission highlights Karnataka’s significant contributions to space technology, with three of the 10 non-government payloads provisioned from the state. These payloads, developed by academic institutions and start-ups, showcase innovation and a commitment to advancing space exploration.

  1. RVSat-1: Created by students and researchers at RV College of EngineeringBengaluru, this experiment studies how a gut bacterium—Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron—grows in space. Understanding this can help improve astronaut health, developing better antibiotics and creating recycling systems for future long-duration space missions.
  1. BGS ARPIT: Designed by SJC Institute of TechnologyChickballapur, this payload works as a transmitter that sends messages, including audio, text and images, from the satellite to Earth using FM signals and the VHF band. This technology supports amateur radio services across the globe.
  • SJC Institute of Technology is a renowned engineering college established in 1986. Located near Bengaluru, it is managed by the Sri Adichunchanagiri Shikshana Trust (R.), which operates under the blessings of Jagadguru Sri Sri Sri Dr Balagangadharanatha Maha Swamiji and the guidance of Jagadguru Sri Sri Sri Dr Nirmalanandanatha Maha Swamiji.
  1. RUDRA 1.0 HPGP Payload: Developed by Bellatrix Aerospace Pvt. LtdBengaluru, this payload demonstrates a cutting-edge green propulsion system that is both efficient and environment-friendly.

Contributions from these Karnataka-based institutions and start-ups underscore the state’s growing prominence in India’s space exploration efforts. The combination of academic research and entrepreneurial innovation is helping push the boundaries of what is possible in space technology.





Girish Linganna is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com
US attorney general wanted to stop Gerry Adams fundraising trip


US president Bill Clinton and Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams (Paul Faith/PA)

By Cillian Sherlock, 
PAToday

The United States attorney general attempted to block Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams from fundraising there in 1995, newly released records show.

Papers contained in the annual release of documents from the National Archives in Dublin show that Janet Reno, the attorney general at the time, wanted to stop Mr Adams from fundraising because of a belief the IRA was still trying to source weapons.

Ms Reno had previously opposed then-US president Bill Clinton’s decision to grant visas to Mr Adams and the former IRA chief of staff Joe Cahill in January 1994, but her continuing opposition is revealed in the records.

At the time, Mr Adams was president of Sinn Fein which was regarded as the political wing of the IRA paramilitary group. Mr Adams has always denied being a member of the IRA.

MY GAWD HE GOES ON AND ON AND ON...

Bill Clinton with John Major in 1994 (Adam Butler/PA)

Months after the IRA declared a ceasefire in 1994, the chief legal adviser to the US president still did not want to grant the Sinn Fein leader a visa.

Mr Clinton overruled her by giving Mr Adams a three-month visa that included permission to raise funds for the party – provoking anger from UK prime minister John Major.

In a letter dated February 1995 to Mr Clinton’s national security adviser Tony Lake, Ms Reno expressed frustration “by the latest effort” to modify restrictions that stopped Mr Adams raising money from Irish-American donors.

She said she had looked at the matter “barely six weeks” earlier in January and had then decided that the fundraising restriction should stay because conditions had not changed sufficiently.

“No evidence has been brought to my attention (since) that suggests progress has been made towards the disarmament and demobilisation of the IRA,” she told Mr Lake.

She added: “In addition, I am aware of evidence that suggests that (the IRA) has continued to identify potential sources for arms procurement and to make inquiries concerning availability and terms of purchase.”

The State Department, the US Treasury and the US Department of Justice had “recently intensified their efforts and public commitments to combatting international terrorism”, she went on.


Ms Reno said these collective efforts “could be undermined by removing the Adams visa restriction at this time”.

In the interim, Sean O hUiginn, head of the Anglo-Irish division of Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs, met Mr Adams on February 7 1995.



Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams (Haydn West/PA)

A separate note contained in the files says that Mr Adams then expressed worries about his situation in the US, hoping that a renewed visa would waive restrictions on fundraising.

According to the documents, he made the comments in a meeting where he also expressed concerns that political instability could lead to a return to violence.

The Sinn Fein leader applied for a visa that included fundraising permission on February 22, which Mr Clinton granted because of the progress he felt had been made.


“We have made clear our expectation that all and any funds raised will be used for legitimate political party purposes which serve to reinforce Sinn Fein’s commitment to the peace process,” a US note held in the Irish state papers shows.

However, Mr Clinton’s decision and a subsequent invitation for Mr Adams to visit the White House for St Patrick’s Day celebrations angered London, Mr Lake told Mr O hUiginn.

In a note to Dublin after spending an evening with Mr Lake at a Chieftains’ concert, Mr O hUiginn said the US security adviser had expressed “strong surprise” at “the over-the-top British reaction”, including Mr Major refusing to take a call from Mr Clinton.

Meeting with Ulster Unionists in Washington in February after the publication of the Anglo-Irish framework document agreed by Mr Major and then-taoiseach John Bruton, Mr Lake was also warned “that crowds might take to the street” in Northern Ireland.

– This article is based on documents in 2024/28/38 and 2024/28/10.

US attorney general tried to block Gerry Adams fundraising in 1995 over IRA weapons fears, unearthed records reveal


Bill Clinton had granted Gerry Adams a three-month visa in a move that angered then UK prime minister John Major.


Sunday 29 December 2024
SKY NEWS
Gerry Adams with Bill Clinton in 2000. Pic: PA


The US attorney general tried to block Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams from fundraising in the country in 1995 over a belief the IRA was still trying to source weapons, newly released records show.

Janet Reno, the attorney general at the time, had previously opposed then-US president Bill Clinton's decision to grant visas for Mr Adams and former IRA chief Joe Cahill in 1994 - months after the IRA declared a ceasefire.
Sponsored link

Mr Adams was president of Sinn Fein, which was regarded as the political wing of the IRA paramilitary group, between 1983 and 2018, but has always denied being a member of the IRA.

Mr Clinton overruled Ms Reno by giving him a three-month visa, which included permission to raise funds for the party - a move that provoked anger from then-UK prime minister John Major.

The US attorney general's continuing opposition is revealed by the annual release of documents from the National Archives in Dublin.

In a February 1995 letter to Mr Clinton's national security advisor Tony Lake, she expressed frustration "by the latest effort" to modify restrictions that stopped Mr Adams raising money from Irish American donors, having looked at the matter "barely six weeks" earlier.

"No evidence has been brought to my attention (since) that suggests progress has been made towards the disarmament and demobilisation of the IRA," she told Mr Lake.



"In addition, I am aware of evidence that suggests that (the IRA) has continued to identify potential sources for arms procurement and to make inquiries concerning availability and terms of purchase."

She also said the State Department, the US Treasury and the US Department of Justice had "recently intensified their efforts and public commitments to combatting international terrorism", which "could be undermined by removing the Adams visa restriction at this time".


The Sinn Fein leader applied for a visa that included fundraising permission on 22 February 1995, which Mr Clinton granted because of the progress he felt had been made.

"We have made clear our expectation that all and any funds raised will be used for legitimate political party purposes which serve to reinforce Sinn Fein's commitment to the peace process," a US note held in the Irish state papers shows.

According to other newly-released documents: Tony Blair effectively told then UUP leader David Trimble to "get lost" over a plan to hold a referendum on Irish reunification in 2002.

Diplomatic delays tied up the return of a portrait of Daniel O'Connell - an Irish nationalist campaigner known as The Liberator - for more than two years, after concerns that the Irish parliament was only receiving a copy of the original.

The Irish government took a dim view of some of the proposed candidates to lead key negotiations leading into the Good Friday Agreement, describing some as ineffective politicians, bad lawyers and in one case having a "bitchy temperament".

Netanyahu visited Ireland in 1990

Netanyahu's visit to establish diplomatic ties

Separate files shed new light on then deputy foreign minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Dublin in 1990, years before he became Israeli prime minister, in a bid to establish a diplomatic presence.

In a meeting with then Irish foreign affairs minister Gerry Collins, he suggested there was a "natural feeling of sympathy towards Israel among the Irish people".

But he said relations had not been helped by Irish soldiers who had been killed in Lebanon while serving with UN peacekeeping forces - many of which had been blamed on Lebanese militias supported by Israel.

An Israeli embassy in Ireland was opened in December 1993, but Israel recently announced its closure.

The Israeli foreign minister accused Ireland of "antisemitic rhetoric" and of crossing "every red line in its relations with Israel".

Ireland has recognised Palestinian statehood and announced an intention to intervene in South Africa's case against Israel for genocide at the International Court of Justice.

Irish premier Simon Harris has rejected the claims and accused Israel of "distracting" from the deaths of children in the Gaza conflict.


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Croatia’s presidential election is scheduled for 29 December 2024, with 3.8 million eligible voters. The president is elected through universal and equal suffrage, via direct elections and a secret ballot, for a mandate lasting five years. The entire territory of Croatia, including polling stations abroad, forms a single electoral constituency.


Eight candidates, five men and three women are competing for the presidency.

The candidates running for president of Croatia are: ● Zoran Milanović (Social Democratic Party of Croatia – SDP and allies), ● Dragan Primorac (Croatian Democratic Union – HDZ and allies), ● Miro Bulj (Most – The Bridge) ● Ivana Kekin (Možemo – We Can!), ● Branka Lozo (Dom i Nacionalno okupljanje – Domino – Home and National Gathering – Domino), ● Tomislav Jonjić (independent), ● Marija Selak Raspudić(independent), and ● Niko Tokić Kartelo (independent).

The presidential candidates have primarily focused their election campaigns on healthcare, education, the fight against corruption, and the migrant crisis—issues that essentially do not fall within the president’s remit—rather than addressing foreign policy topics and challenges (relations with neighbours, the EU, NATO) and the Croatian military, which do fall under the president’s competencies.

The intriguing legacy of Croatian presidents

Franjo Tuđman, the first president of the Republic of Croatia (1991–1999), is widely recognized for his pivotal role in establishing an independent and sovereign Croatian state. However, he is also criticised for numerous shortcomings, particularly his autocratic governance, with repercussions still evident today, especially in terms of organised crime, corruption, and the controversial process of “tycoonisation” of the Croatian economy.

Stjepan Mesić, who succeeded Tuđman as Croatia’s second president (2000–2010), faced the challenging task of addressing the political baggage left by his predecessor. Mesić demonstrated both vision and political courage, making significant strides in affirming Croatia’s position within the region and globally. He also championed the fight against organised crime and corruption, “declaring war” on the influential intelligence underworld still present in Croatia. He managed to end Croatia’s isolation, steer it back on the path towards EU and NATO integration, and reaffirm antifascism as one of the fundamental values of modern Croatia. However, he was unable to fully eliminate the effects of Tuđman’s legacy, as many of Tuđman’s key figures remained entrenched in Croatian politics, government, economy, and the security and defence sectors, often prioritising personal or party (HDZ) agendas over national interests. Since independence, Croatia has grappled persistently with the issues of the criminalisation of politics and the politicisation of crime.

The third president, Ivo Josipović (2010–2015), sought to remain non-partisan during his term in office. He avoided strategic missteps. Like other Croatian officials, Josipović was criticised for insufficiently utilising the potential of Croatia’s NATO and EU membership and for neglecting the country’s economic recovery. Nevertheless, Josipović made significant contributions to regional stability and Croatia’s reputation on the global stage.

Kolinda Grabar Kitarović served as Croatia’s fourth president (2015–2020), becoming the first woman to hold the office. She strictly adhered to HDZ policies and sought to reaffirm Tuđman’s concept of Croatia as the “bulwark of Christianity,” warning—or more accurately, fabricating—the so-called Islamic threat allegedly emanating from neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina. Her term can be described as “frivolous” and brought more harm than benefit to Croatia’s standing in regional and international affairs.

The fifth and current president, Zoran Milanović (2020–2025), is widely regarded as the most unconventional president in the history of the young Croatian state. He will be remembered as a “headstrong” president who challenged dominant Western global trends, particularly the prevailing EU and NATO policies on key international issues. A defining feature of his term is his constant confrontation with Prime Minister and HDZ leader Andrej Plenković. Milanović’s role as the sole counterbalance to the autocratic governance of Plenković and HDZ can be seen as a positive contribution to Croatian statehood and society.

The election favourite abstains from the campaign

Zoran Milanović is the frontrunner in the presidential election. This time, he has adopted a different strategy compared to the parliamentary elections in April, where he ran as a prime ministerial candidate despite warnings from Croatia’s Constitutional Court, while constantly at odds with Prime Minister Plenković and his cabinet.

Throughout the presidential campaign, Milanović has quietly carried out his presidential duties, largely refraining from engaging in day-to-day political events and avoiding confrontations through the media and social networks. In effect, Milanović is abstaining from the campaign. A similar situation occurred in Slovenia in 1997, when Milan Kučan, the favourite in the election, was re-elected as president of Slovenia despite effectively staying out of the campaign.

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election stripped Plenković of his sole leverage against Milanović. Trump’s election signalled a period where European policy would need to align with his approach to the war in Ukraine. While the Milanović-Plenković rivalry initially worked in Plenković’s favour, this dynamic shifted with Trump’s election as the new US president.

According to analysts, Plenković had no choice but to step back from the election campaign due to the impending changes in US foreign policy, effectively ending any prospects of victory for his candidate, Dragan Primorac. So far, Primorac has struggled to emerge from Plenković’s shadow, with most Croatians viewing him not as a legitimate presidential contender but as a mere stand-in for the true candidate, Andrej Plenković.

Furthermore, Plenković knowingly chose a mediocre presidential candidate, believing he could not defeat Milanović. Even in the unlikely event of a Primorac victory, Plenković’s priority was to ensure that his leadership within HDZ would remain unchallenged. This decision has frustrated HDZ members, especially the so-called intellectual wing, who argue that far better and more competent candidates, capable of defeating Milanović, were overlooked because Plenković prioritised his personal ambitions over the party’s interests. Many believe that Plenković’s self-serving and autocratic approach will ultimately secure Milanović’s re-election.

Public opinion surveys suggest that Milanović is set to win more than a third of the votes in the first round of the election, with the second round expected to take place on 12 January 2025. Unlike Primorac, the other presidential candidates entered the race fully aware of their slim chances of winning, each motivated by different reasons.

Ivana Kekin’s candidacy aims to strengthen support for the Možemo party, while Marija Selak Raspudić is running to regain political visibility after parting ways with Most. Without a party of her own, she seeks broader public recognition and may even consider founding her own political organisation. Conversely, Miro Bulj is running to ensure that Most does not allow Selak Raspudić to dominate their political space following her departure from the party.

Public support for Ivana Kekin and Marija Selak Raspudić stands at around ten per cent, while Miro Bulj is backed by less than four per cent of voters, according to polls. Selak Raspudić was the only candidate analysts considered capable of advancing to the second round instead of Primorac, but she failed to build a strong campaign or expand her voter base to significantly boost her support.

The European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) reveals Croatia’s struggles with corruption

In the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index, Croatia ranks at the bottom of the EU, placing 57th out of 180 countries.

The European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO), headed by Laura Codruța Kövesi, is currently investigating the misappropriation of over 300 million euros in EU funds in Croatia, placing the country proportionally among Europe’s top offenders. Nataša Novaković[2], former head of the Conflict of Interest Commission, remarked, “Croatia loses 10 billion dollars annually to corruption. Just imagine how much money that is and the profound impact corruption has on all of us.” During his two terms as prime minister, Andrej Plenković has dismissed more than 30 ministers, predominantly over corruption allegations, yet he has failed to take accountability for the conduct of his closest associates, whom he personally appointed.

The latest “non-paper” concerns Croatia

Croatia was the last country to join the EU and is expected to be a genuine partner to all Western Balkan countries, which, in practice, is not the case.

Slovenia’s Minister of Foreign and European Affairs, Tanja Fajon, revealed that Slovenia and Germany have drafted a non-paper stipulating the exclusion of vetoes and blockades tied to unresolved bilateral disputes from the pre-accession process.

Analysts argue that the new non-paper is a response to Croatia’s detrimental role in the region, especially in its relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia, and that the EU is aware of this.  Consequently, the latest non-paper seeks to mitigate the harmful impacts of Croatia’s actions in the Western Balkans, as the country frequently exploits its EU membership to address bilateral disputes. A parallel can be drawn with Bulgaria’s approach to North Macedonia. The proposed non-paper aims to eliminate the use of vetoes and blockades against neighbouring states over unresolved bilateral issues.

Qualified majority voting (QMV) will need to be employed in decision-making throughout the EU accession process to avoid obstructions by current EU member states in the integration process of candidate countries.


Croatia is haunted by the ghosts of its past

Croatia’s political spectrum is defined by two extremes: HDZ and SDP. The Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) bases its ideology on anti-communism, the independence process, and the so-called Serbian threat in Croatia. However, communism is long gone, Croatia achieved independence in 1991, and Serbs have become a stabilising factor and a litmus test for Croatia’s democracy. The greatest credit for independence belongs to the Croatian people, who overwhelmingly chose to declare an independent and sovereign state. HDZ is clearly attempting to claim sole credit for Croatia’s independence, ignoring that it stemmed from the Croatian people’s aspiration for independence, as well as historical international circumstances and context—most notably the fall of the Berlin Wall. The party must confront internal criminalisation and abandon its idealisation of Franjo Tuđman. Although Croatia is now an independent and sovereign state, HDZ continues to “search for enemies”, be it Serbs, Yugonostalgists, and more recently, the so-called Muslim threat, perceived as a danger not only to Croatia but to Europe. The projection of alleged threats has become a means of political survival. Over the past decade, HDZ has increasingly aligned itself with a Christian identity, despite being conceived as a national movement without a specifically Christian orientation. The most recent example is the warning about the so-called Hungarian (Orbán) threat, issued by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence Ivan Anušić. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Serbia remain a persistent topic in Croatian politics. Presidential candidate Ivana Kekin has gone as far as to claim that Croatia’s strategic interest is the removal of Vučić from power, with widespread support in Croatia for the protests unfolding in Serbia.

The Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SDP), the successor to the former League of Communists of Croatia, has been in a prolonged state of crisis. It failed to transform into a modern left-wing political party during the transition period and remains burdened by remnants of the past. Croatia and the countries of the region need robust social democratic parties, but not in the mould of the current Croatian SDP. Similar challenges are evident in other regional countries with social democratic movements.

HDZ and SDP stand as two radical examples on Croatia’s political stage, benefiting most from the ideological divide that continues to fracture the country, hinder societal healing, and prevent the state from functioning at its full capacity.

Croatia is a sovereign, independent, and internationally recognised state, a full member of the UN, EU, NATO, the Eurozone, Schengen, and other international organisations. These significant achievements, accomplished in a relatively short timeframe, are deserving of respect. But does this exceptional success translate into the progress of Croatian society? The development of Croatian society has been marred by numerous challenges and does not fully reflect these accomplishments. Additional efforts are needed to foster an open, democratic society rooted in civil liberties and the rights of every Croatian citizen, irrespective of their ethnic, religious, political, or other identity.


[1] IFIMES – International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal “European Perspectives”, link: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en .

[2] Večernji list, an interview with Nataša Novaković: ‘Hrvatska gubi 10 milijardi dolara godišnje na korupciju. Zamislite koliki je to novac i koliko korupcija utječe na sve nas’. Available at:  https://www.vecernji.hr/vijesti/hrvatska-gubi-10-milijardi-dolara-godisnje-na-korupciju-zamislite-koliki-je-to-novac-i-koliko-korupcija-utjece-na-sve-nas-1761270 

IFIMES

IFIMES – International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has special consultative status with the Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN since 2018. IFIMES is also the publisher of the biannual international scientific journal European Perspectives. IFIMES gathers and selects various information and sources on key conflict areas in the world. The Institute analyses mutual relations among parties with an aim to promote the importance of reconciliation, early prevention/preventive diplomacy and disarmament/ confidence building measures in the regional or global conflict resolution of the existing conflicts and the role of preventive actions against new global disputes.

Croatia’s Outspoken Milanovic Tipped To Win Second Presidential Term – Analysis



Croatia's Zoran Milanovic. Photo Credit: Croatia Presidential Press Service

December 29, 2024 
By Balkan Insight
By Vuk Tesija


Zoran Milanovic is the frontrunner in Croatia’s presidential election on Sunday but will likely face a run-off against the governing party’s candidate to secure a second term as head of state.

Milanovic, 58, is polling at almost 39 per cent, two percentage points more than a month ago and well ahead of Dragan Primorac of the governing Croatian Democratic Union, HDZ, on almost 23 per cent.

The incumbent’s first five-year term was marked by frequent and often fiery criticism of the HDZ-led government of Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, as well as a string of controversial statements by Milanovic that seemed designed to appeal to the political right. He is backed by the opposition Social Democratic Party, SDP, which he led between 2007 and 2016.

Trailing behind Milanovic and Primorac are six other candidates, including independent Marija Selak Raspudic and Ivana Kekin, a party ally of Zagreb mayor Tomislav Tomasevic, who are both polling at around nine per cent.

Sunday’s vote is the third this year following a parliamentary election won by the HDZ in April and European elections in June; local elections are also due early next year.

Nada Zgrabljic Rotar, a former professor of journalism and communication studies at the University of Zagreb, said the campaign had been “lukewarm”.

“We should also keep in mind that people are tired of the elections and rhetoric that is similar and repeated,” Zgrabljic Rotar told BIRN.

That rhetoric frequently revolves around the issue of Croatian soldiers being deployed abroad as part of NATO operations, notably concerning Ukraine; immigration; the rights of Croats in neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina; and what conditions to set of Serbia in exchange for voting in favour of its accession to the European Union at some unknown point in the future.

In debates, Milanovic has taken a softer line than Primorac and some of the other candidates; he has ruled out sending the army to secure Croatia’s borders, deporting migrants, or setting any particularly radical conditions on Serbia.

Political analyst Jaroslav Pecnik said the incumbent is the clear frontrunner, but the HDZ “must not allow itself the catastrophe” of Primorac not making the run-off on January 12.

Observers are also watching closely how Kekin performs on behalf of Mozemo! [We Can!], the party that holds power in the capital, Zagreb. “Her participation should be seen as preparation and profiling for the local elections in May,” said Pecnik.
Milanovic the best orator

Primorac has taken a significantly tougher line than Milanovic on the key issues of the campaign.

On Croatia’s public broadcaster on Monday, the 59-year-old doctor said he would deport “every illegal migrant” on Croatian territory and condition Serbia’s EU accession on it declassifying Yugoslav People’s Army papers on the fall of Vukovar and the killing of wounded Croatian fighters and civilians taken from the city hospital in 1991.

He also ruled out sending Croatian soldiers to Ukraine, but criticised Milanovic’s opposition to the participation of two Croatian army officers in the NATO training of Ukrainian soldiers in Germany.

Zgrabljic Rotar, however, noted Primorac’s failure to make much of public concern over the state of the public health service, given his medical expertise. Primorac’s chances have possibly been hurt by a scandal involving his HDZ colleague Vili Beros, who was dismissed as health minister in November over allegations of graft in the procurement of medical equipment.

Most analysts agree that Milanovic is the best orator in the race.

“His style can sometimes be a bit over the top, but at least he has the ‘taste and smell’of a politician,” said Pecnik.

“He is not attacking anyone in the campaign for now because he doesn’t need to, because he is the favourite, and no one dares to touch him too much because they know he has a sharp tongue.”

Zgrabljic Rotar similarly cited Milanovic’s speaking skills.

“He has a rhetoric that is sometimes poetic, sometimes rough; he is a good speaker, which we don’t have many opportunities to hear,” she told BIRN.

“In general, our politicians don’t work hard enough on themselves. In politics, it is not enoughjust to be smart, you have to know how to speak.”
Second term the time for ‘decisive steps’

Pecnik said Milanovic should seize the opportunity offered by a second term to cement his legacy, with his “greatest potential” in the field of foreign policy.

“If he wants to be remembered in history – and I believe he is sufficiently narcissistic and ambitious to aspire to that – he must take decisive steps. The second term is the time for such actions,” Pecnik told BIRN.

“He should launch a series of initiatives aimed at Prime Minister Plenkovic and the government, putting them in a position where they are compelled to respond. Plenkovic may not need to accept these initiatives, but he cannot ignore them. If Milanovic achieves that, he will have accomplished a great deal.”

Pecnik said regional initiatives, involving Bosnia, Serbia and Montenegro, would be “crucial”.

“A balanced approach toward these countries is necessary, alongside a clear commitment to supporting their EU accession,” he said.“Of course, this does not depend solely on Milanovic but also on the government and these countries themselves. It’s essential to approach them as equals, demonstrating a willingness to help while maintaining clear criteria.”

Alluding to some of the most controversial of Milanovic’s public pronouncements, Pecnik said Milanovic should “move away from pandering to Tudjman’s politics and instead establish his own authentic policies”, a reference to Croatia’s first president, the nationalist Franjo Tudjman.

Political analyst Davor Gjenero said the only potential for surprise on Sunday is in possibility of Milanovic taking enough votes to win outright, a feat no one has managed since Tudjman. He would then be protected against ideas, aired now and then by some in the media, about trimming the powers of the presidency.

“In that case, everything that was said about limiting the powers of the president of the republic is hardly an option,” Gjenero said.

Balkan Insight

The Balkan Insight (formerly the Balkin Investigative Reporting Network, BIRN) is a close group of editors and trainers that enables journalists in the region to produce in-depth analytical and investigative journalism on complex political, economic and social themes. BIRN emerged from the Balkan programme of the Institute for War & Peace Reporting, IWPR, in 2005. The original IWPR Balkans team was mandated to localise that programme and make it sustainable, in light of changing realities in the region and the maturity of the IWPR intervention. Since then, its work in publishing, media training and public debate activities has become synonymous with quality, reliability and impartiality. A fully-independent and local network, it is now developing as an efficient and self-sustainable regional institution to enhance the capacity for journalism that pushes for public debate on European-oriented political and economic reform.

 

Vietnam Completes Construction of Its Largest Bulk Carrier

Vietnamese built dry bulk carrier
Truong Minh Dream is the largest dry bulk carrier ever built in Vietnam and the first of four vessels on order (SBIC)

Published Dec 27, 2024 4:55 PM by The Maritime Executive

 


Vietnamese officials were on hand for the handover of the largest dry bulk carrier ever built in a domestic shipyard. The 65,000 dwt Truong Minh Dream was hailed as a key advancement and in keeping with the government’s plans to expand shipbuilding and shipping to support the growth of the country.

The vessel which measures 656 feet (approximately 200 meters) is classed by Japan’s ClassNK with officials saying it signifies the vessel meets broad international standards and can operate globally. It was designed in a joint effort between Vietnam Shipbuilding Engineering JSC (VISEC) and Bluetech Finland. 

It is a double-bottom, single-propeller bulk carrier with a total of five cargo holds. Furthermore, it is fitted with hydraulically operated double-sided hatch covers and four cranes with a lifting capacity of 30 tons. While a fairly standard bulk carrier it is significantly larger than the vessels previously built in the country. The main engine is a licensed design from MAN and built in Japan.

The construction was undertaken by the Nam Trieu Shipbuilding Company, a subsidiary of the Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (SBIC). The shipyard reports the project was executed smoothly with the vessel launched on May 11 and completed sea trials on December 4. It was able to proceed with the project while SBIC is currently being reorganized under a state-run bankruptcy. The government The Ministry of Transport is presiding over the process and coordinating with the Ministry of National Defense. The corporation is to submit a plan to the Prime Minister for approval in the first quarter of 2025 to improve the capacity of the domestic shipbuilding industry. Vietnam looks to expand its shipbuilding to present a cost-effective alternative to the traditional shipbuilding countries as China continues to squeeze out competition from Japan and now South Korea.

The bulker was handed over on December 26 to Dong Bac Shipbuilding Industry JSC which will be responsible for its operation. The company initially ordered two 65,000 dwt bulkers, with work starting on the second vessel after the launch in May of the Truong Minh Dream. The vessel will be operating from the northern port city of Hai Phong.

During the handover ceremony, it was announced the shipping company had placed an order for two more vessels of the class. Government officials said it would support the party and state’s strategy for developing Vietnam’s maritime economy.
 

China Floats Largest, Next-Generation Amphibious Assault Ship
Naming and float out ceremony for China's next-generation amphibious assault ship Sichuan (CSSC)

Published Dec 27, 2024 4:15 PM by The Maritime Executive

The Chinese PLA Navy today, December 27, celebrated the float out of the first of its next-generation amphibious assault ships. The vessel named Sichuan is reported to be the largest of its kind and incorporates advanced technology.

The new ship was built at Hudong-Zhonghau Shipbuilding, a division of China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC). Remarkably, China claims the vessel is just four years from design to float out. It will now undergo outfitting before starting dock and later sea trials.

According to the statement from the PLA, the vessel exceeds 40,000 tons displacement, making it significantly larger than China’s first generation of amphib commissioned in 2021. Among the surprises in the design, the PLA reports the vessel incorporates an electromagnetic catapult and arresting system. This means that the vessel which was originally thought to be capable of helicopters and landing craft will also be able to launch a manned fixed-wing aircraft. It is also thought to be a large base for Chinese drones.



In appearance, the vessel features a full-length flight deck. The Chinese also highlighted a configuration with a two-island superstructure, the first time this feature has been used on a Chinese vessel. They said it is designed to better facilitate aviation operations.

China’s previous amphibs, Type 75, are deployed with helicopters and landing crafts. China built three of the first class. The new vessel is the first of Type 76.



Rendering of the vessel which when completed will rival the U.S. fleet (CSSC

China already reports to have the world’s largest navy and continues to rapidly expand its fleet with new capabilities. Chinese officials hailed the new amphib saying it was a critical part of the efforts to expand the reach and capabilities of China’s Navy. In addition to the new amphib, China continues the outfitting of its new aircraft carrier.

The vessel is seen as a rival to the U.S. which traditionally has had the largest vessels of the type. The Wasp and America class vessels operated by the U.S. are approximately 844 feet (257 meters) in length with reports the new Chinese class is 853 feet (260 meters) although the Chinese only said its displacement would exceed 40,000 tons. That would make it similar in size to the Wasp-class and smaller than the America class which is 45,000 tons displacement. Observers had previously predicted the Chinese vessel would reach 50,000 tons displacement.

 

Houthis Claim Retaliatory Attack on Maersk Ship and Israel’s Airport

missile launch
Houthis claimed a missile attack on Israel's international airport and a drone launched at a Maersk vessel

Published Dec 27, 2024 2:44 PM by The Maritime Executive

 


A day after Israel pounded Houthi targets including reports of paralyzing all three Red Sea seaports in Yemen, the militants claimed to have responded with attacks on a containership and Israel’s international airport. Spokesperson Yahya Sare'e claimed direct hits which were quickly refuted by both Maersk and Israel.

According to the statement, the containership Santa Ursula (93,400 dwt) a Danish-flagged vessel was targeted while it was sailing near Socotra Island in the Indian Ocean south of Yemen. The vessel, which was built in 2012 and operated for Hamburg Sud until the consolidation into Maersk, is showing on its AIS signal that it was inbound to Salalah, Oman. The ship which has a capacity of 7,090 TEU was coming from Algeciras.

The Houthis claimed to have launched a drone attack on the vessel. If the attack did take place, it would be the first in weeks against a foreign flag vessel in the region. Maersk quickly denied an attack and monitoring services including the UK Maritime Trade Operation did not report the incident.

In the same statement, the Houthis claimed to have launched another hypersonic rocket targeting Ben Gurion Airport and another at the region around Tel Aviv. They claimed that “the missile succeeded in reaching its target despite the enemy’s censorship, and the operation resulted in casualties and the cessation of navigation at the airport.”

The Israel Defense Forces later confirmed that as a precaution flights have been halted from the international airport for approximately 30 minutes. It said however that the missile was successfully intercepted without injuries.

Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, yesterday said that the Houthis would continue to be a target. The military cited the repeated attacks with missiles and drones while the Prime Minister said Israel would be using the same level of force to stop the threats.

 

Cargo Pump Failure on Newbuild Sparks Vibration Warning

CM Technologies
An on-going monitoring strategy is crucial to maintaining the service life of rotating equipment, troubleshooting problems, and preventing failures, and subsequent costs

Published Dec 28, 2024 12:45 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

[By: CM Technologies]

The failure of a cargo pump onboard a newbuild tanker has highlighted the need for crews to regularly monitor rotating machinery for excessive wear and vibration, if unnecessary downtime and costs are to be prevented.

The German owner took delivery of a 2021-built chemical tanker from a Chinese yard in 2021, but the long shaft driving the cargo pump’s impeller was not correctly installed, destroying the pump beyond repair and delaying cargo loading operations.

CM Technologies’ Sales Director Uwe Krüger cites other examples where ships’ pumps appeared to be in sound condition, but were in fact close to being written off. 

“During the physical inspections of three pumps aboard a 58,000dwt containership, initial checks indicated acceptable values for balance and shaft alignment, but a second test using our Vibration Meter Marine immediately alerted the crew to a bearing close to seizure,” he said. 

The bearings on all three cargo pumps were found to have the same potentially catastrophic pitting damage, requiring costly overhaul.

“Ships’ fire, freshwater, cargo, sewage and ballast water pumps are critical but often overlooked pieces of machinery,” said Krüger. “Yet, despite the importance of the humble pump to ship operations, rotating machinery is still often monitored and serviced only on fixed maintenance schedules. Pump failure can place the can place ship, cargo and crew at risk.”

CMT recommends that regular vibration analysis should start at system commissioning and continue throughout the operational life of the vessel. An on-going monitoring strategy is crucial to maintaining the service life of rotating equipment, troubleshooting problems, and preventing failures, and subsequent costs,” he said.

CMT’s Managing Director Matthias Winkler furthered: “A replacement bearing can cost as little as US$20. But finding out you needed one after the motor has burnt out could easily cost thousands of dollars to put right. And Murphy’s Law dictates that this is likely to happen in a Port Said or somewhere while the next available motor can be found in Rotterdam or Singapore, so you can add significant logistics and agent costs on top of that.”

Columbia Shipmanagement and Hamburg based shipping group RHL Reederei Hamburger Lloyd are just two shipping companies that have been using CMT´s Vibration Meter Marine since the product was unveiled in 2015.

“These ship managers wanted a monitoring system capable of immediate analysis of existing problems without requiring the user to have any special knowledge, explained Winkler. “Regular use of the system has alerted crews to bearing defects before breakdown, averting costly damages. The technology has already justified the investment.”

Vibration analysis provides insights into the most common cause of machinery damage and reduced service life. Bearing damage is particularly prevalent, caused by shaft misalignment, insufficient or incorrect lubrication and general wear and tear. Pump health can be easily assessed by analysing vibration.

“Crews of seagoing vessels are under constant stress, and crew changes occur at fixed intervals, so vibration monitoring devices need to be easy to use with measurement readings that are simple to understand by crew members with limited technical knowledge. 

“Our Vibration Meter Marine is a powerful, expert system that provides on-the-spot usable results without the need to send information to shore for evaluation. Even beginners can understand what the readings are telling them,” said Winkler.

Alongside a range of vibration meters, monitors, software and analytical tools, the CMT´s Vibration Meter Marine has been specifically designed for the harsh marine environment. The hand-held device, acceleration sensor, software, and accessories are delivered in a small, rugged case designed for easy storage in between usage.

The meter also includes a mode to monitor the lubricating performance of greased, water, or oil lubricated bearings in pumps and rotating machinery. As an option, data can be stored for trend analysis using the diagnostic software.

“Our goal is to provide crews and superintendents with a practical solution that will enable them to detect pump problems early and shift from fixed inspection schedules to more effective condition-based protocols. Vibration analysis does need to be part of the regular machinery checks crews make on their rounds.”

The products and services herein described in this press release are not endorsed by The Maritime Executive.