Monday, January 06, 2025

 UH OH

Tuberculosis strains resistant to new drugs are transmitted between patients



Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
TB research 

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By analysing the genomes of close to 90,000 TB strains from around the world, scientists from Swiss TPH and partners found that TB strains resistant to the new treatment regimen are already spreading between patients.

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Credit: Joachim Pelikan / Swiss TPH




Multidrug-resistant TB is a major concern

More than 10 million people fall sick with tuberculosis (TB) every year. The disease remains the world’s biggest infectious disease killers with an estimated 1.25 million annual deaths. The disease is still found in every country, but certain regions, such as India, Central Asia and Southern Africa, bear a particularly high burden. Multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) continues to pose a major public health threat, adding to the growing concern of rising antimicrobial resistance.

The traditional treatment regimen for MDR-TB is lengthy, expensive, and comes with severe adverse event. In 2022, the World Health Organization (WHO) endorsed a new 6-month regimen – the BPaL(M) –, based on evidence of its improved safety and efficacy from numerous clinical studies, including TB-PRACTECAL.

Monitoring the implementation of a new treatment regimen

“While this new regimen is a game changer for patients suffering from MDR-TB, we knew that it will be difficult to outsmart Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the bacteria causing TB,” said Sébastien Gagneux, Head of the Department Medical Parasitology and Infection Biology at Swiss TPH and senior author of the study. “It was therefore crucial to study how the TB bacteria would react to the global roll-out of this new regimen.”

A study led by Swiss TPH in collaboration with the National Centre for Tuberculosis and Lung Diseases in Tbilisi, Georgia, published yesterday in the renowned New England Journal of Medicine now examined in detail whether resistance to the drugs in the new regimen has already emerged since its introduction, and whether this resistance is transmitting between patients.

Over a quarter of resistant strains result from transmission between patients

The researchers analysed the genomes of close to 90,000 M. tuberculosis strains from Georgia and many other countries around the world. They identified a total of 514 strains that were resistant to TB drugs, including both the old and the new treatment regimens. These highly drug-resistant strains were found in 27 countries across four continents.

Alarmingly, 28% of these strains were transmitted directly from one patient to another. “We already had anecdotal evidence of resistance emerging to the new regimen, but we did not know to what extent transmission was responsible for the spread of these highly drug-resistant strains,” said Galo A. Goig, postdoctoral collaborator at Swiss TPH and first author of the study.

“The good news is that the total number of these cases is still low. However, the fact that more than a quarter of these highly drug-resistant cases are due to patient-to-patient transmission, only two years after WHO endorsed the new regimen, is worrying,” added Goig.

Call for better surveillance and infection control

These findings have important implications for public health policy and interventions. “These new drugs have taken many years to develop, and to prevent drug resistance from emerging, it is essential to combine the deployment of these new regimens with robust diagnostics and surveillance systems,” said Chloé Loiseau, postdoctoral collaborator at Swiss TPH and co-author of the paper.

The authors emphasize the need for improved diagnostic tools, better infection control and robust surveillance systems to curb the spread of these highly drug-resistant strains, and to safeguard the efficacy of the new treatment regimen.

Tackling antimicrobial resistance

While there are already new TB drugs in the pipeline, experts worry that M. tuberculosis will continue to find ways to evade new drugs. “The example of these highly drug-resistant TB strains further illustrates that antimicrobial resistance is one of the most critical threats to global health today,” said Gagneux. “We must stay ahead in this constant race between drug development and bacterial resistance, and take proactive steps to prevent a ‘post-antibiotic era’ for TB and other diseases.”

About the study

The study was published yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine. Swiss TPH led the study in collaboration with the National Center for Tuberculosis and Lung Diseases (NCTLD) in Tbilisi, Georgia. The work was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) and the European Research Council (ERC).

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2404644

About tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by Mycobaterium tuberculosis. TB is spread from person to person through the air. Symptoms of the disease include coughing, chest pain, weight loss, fever and night sweats. Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a form of TB caused by bacteria that do not respond to the two most effective first-line TB drugs. Only about 2 in 5 people with MDR-TB accessed treatment in 2022.

Swiss TPH’s contribution to the fight against TB

Swiss TPH is committed to alleviate TB-related suffering, working on five continents, from basic research to health systems strengthening. Activities include the investigation of the host-pathogen interaction, of the evolution of antibiotic resistance and of the host immune responses to infection and evaluations of TB initiatives and programmes. Swiss TPH also conducts clinical trials of new TB diagnostics, drugs and vaccines in collaboration with our long-term partners at the Ifakara Health Institute (IHI) in Tanzania and the National Center for Tuberculosis and Lung Diseases (NCTLD) in Georgia.

Trends in treatment need and receipt for substance use disorders in the US


JAMA Network



About The Study: 

This cross-sectional study’s analysis underscores a public health crisis of substance use disorder. The prevalence of substance use disorder surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, yet the receipt of treatment declined initially as health care services were disrupted. Treatment rates began to recover in 2022, likely due to reopened treatment programs and increased telehealth use.



Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Milap C. Nahata, PharmD, MS, email nahata.1@osu.edu.

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/

(doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.53317)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

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About JAMA Network Open: JAMA Network Open is an online-only open access general medical journal from the JAMA Network. On weekdays, the journal publishes peer-reviewed clinical research and commentary in more than 40 medical and health subject areas. Every article is free online from the day of publication. 

 

Risk of domestic abuse increases over time for those exposed to childhood maltreatment




University College London





For the study, published in Molecular Psychiatry, researchers analysed data from 12,794 participants born in England and Wales from the Twins Early Development Study (TEDS).

TEDS began in 1994 and has followed twins born in England and Wales throughout their childhood, adolescence and into early adulthood. The twins and their families complete questionnaires and take part in interviews about different environmental and individual factors that might have been influencing them throughout their lives.

By studying the differences between identical and non-identical pairs of twins, researchers use the data to understand how genes and environments affect abilities, behaviours and mental health.

In the new study, the researchers found that participants who reported childhood maltreatment (such as emotional, physical or sexual abuse, and emotional or physical neglect) were three times more likely to experience intimate partner violence at the age of 21 compared to their peers.

However, the risk of domestic abuse continued to grow over time. And by the time the participants reached the age of 26, they were four times more likely to have encountered intimate partner violence if they had experienced childhood maltreatment earlier in life compared to peers of the same age.

Lead author Dr Patrizia Pezzoli (UCL Psychology & Language Sciences) said: “Our findings are in line with past research, which generally reports a three to six times higher risk for intimate partner violence victimisation among those with a history of childhood maltreatment.

“However, our finding that this risk may accumulate over time is novel. We interpreted this escalation in light of previous evidence that individuals exposed to maltreatment often face gradual restrictions in social networks – for example as a result of having less opportunities to socialise when growing up - potentially heightening their vulnerability to unsafe relationships over time.”

As part of their study, the researchers also looked at the reasons why people who experience childhood maltreatment often face a greater risk of abuse in their adult relationships.

They found that childhood maltreatment specifically increases the risk of intimate partner violence over and above both environmental and genetic risk factors.

Meanwhile, environmental influences shared by siblings, such as family dynamics and socioeconomic status, still accounted for a large proportion (42-43%) of the link between childhood maltreatment and intimate partner violence, as did genetic factors (30-33%) that influence behaviour, personality traits and susceptibility to certain conditions, including the likelihood of experiencing or perpetrating violence.

External factors unique to each individual, such as peer groups, life events or personal experiences also accounted for around a quarter (25-27%) of the association between childhood maltreatment and future intimate partner violence.

Dr Pezzoli said: “These distinctions can help us to understand the different pathways through which childhood experiences can impact later life outcomes and inform targeted interventions.”

The researchers now hope that their findings can be used to help potentially vulnerable people.

Dr Pezzoli explained: “We hope that our research will allow us to tackle the complex factors that increase risk for certain individuals, creating opportunities for effective prevention and support.

“This research highlights the need for evidence-based support strategies for people affected by childhood maltreatment, ideally before they begin intimate relationships, to help them build a safe and healthy future.”

The research was funded by a British Academy/Leverhulme grant awarded to Dr Pezzoli.

 

Media coverage of civilian casualties in allied countries boosts support for U.S. involvement



Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania




From photographs of decimated buildings to military and civilian casualty counts to narratives of suffering, news media bring information about foreign conflicts to American audiences. But does this coverage actually affect public opinion about whether and how the United States should be involved in a conflict? Does it influence what Americans think about the U.S. providing military, diplomatic, and economic aid to foreign nations?

A new paper from researchers at the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) of the University of Pennsylvania examines these questions and finds that media coverage of civilian casualties increases public support for U.S. involvement in conflicts by evoking empathy for the victims – but only when those victims are from allied countries. The paper, “How civilian casualty information shapes support for US involvement in an ally country’s war effort,” by Alon P. Kraitzman, a postdoctoral fellow at APPC, Tom W. Etienne, a doctoral student at the University of Pennsylvania, and Dolores Albarracín, the Amy Gutmann Penn Integrates Knowledge University Professor and director of APPC’s Communication Science division, was published in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, a Nature journal.

The researchers conducted a longitudinal analysis of a large national survey and four experiments to analyze the influence of media coverage of civilian casualties on public opinion about the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, as well as hypothetical international conflicts. The survey “showed that the salience of civilian casualties in the Ukraine war was positively associated with a democratic justification for the war,” the authors write. The experiments manipulated information to explore different possible aspects of how information shapes public support, including the role of empathy, the different effects of information about civilian and military casualties, and how these dynamics apply to hypothetical conflicts beyond Ukraine-Russia.

The studies showed that empathy for civilian suffering is a key factor in support for U.S. involvement in a conflict. However, information about civilian casualties does not influence support when the suffering affects a nation that is not a U.S. ally.

Previous research has shown that coverage of U.S. military casualties can turn the American public against a military undertaking, and coverage of foreign civilian casualties can lead to calls for ending a U.S. military venture. This paper, says Kraitzman, “shows that coverage of casualties does not necessarily lower support for U.S. involvement. There is a more nuanced dynamic at play. Portrayals of civilian casualties can rally public support for U.S. action to protect civilians abroad.”

“These findings,” says Albarracín, “are important for media outlets and policymakers as they navigate the complex choices in how to portray and engage with international conflicts. They also teach us about the psychological forces that shape policy support in the context of war.”

“How civilian casualty information shapes support for US involvement in an ally country’s war effort” was published in the journal Humanities and Social Sciences Communications on Jan. 6, 2025.

 


Acoustic sensors find frequent gunfire on school walking routes



Study documents toll on kids in one Chicago community



Ohio State University




COLUMBUS, Ohio – A new study used acoustic sensors that detect the sound of gunfire to show how often children in one Chicago neighborhood are exposed to gunshots while walking to and from school.

 

Results showed that nearly two-thirds of schools in the Englewood neighborhood of Chicago had at least one gun incident within 400 meters (about one-quarter mile) of where children were walking home during the 2021-22 school year.

 

These findings suggest a need to redefine federal definitions of school gun violence to include indirect forms of violence that take place near schools, not only on school grounds, in order to more appropriately capture the burden on communities of color, said Gia Barboza-Salerno, lead author of the study and assistant professor of public health and social work at The Ohio State University.

 

“Not all the violence children are exposed to is direct violence or happens on school grounds,” Barboza-Salerno said.

 

“But that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have an impact. Hearing gunshots on the way to and from school is terrifying and will affect how kids perform in school.”

 

The study was published recently in the journal SSM-Population Health.

 

The findings are important because research shows that exposure to gun violence in schools is linked to poor outcomes for students, including diminished performance on standardized assessments in mathematics and English, elevated rates of absenteeism, decreased student enrollment, and lower graduation rates.

 

In this new study, the researchers found that 4.5 times more gunshots were detected using the acoustic sensors compared to what police recorded in investigative reports.

 

This sensor data shows how staggering the amount of indirect violence is for children in Englewood, and potentially other areas, said study co-author Sharefa Duhaney, a graduate student in public health at Ohio State.

 

“You can’t just put metal detectors in schools to deal with violence,” Duhaney said. “Children are exposed to violence on the way to and from school, and we need to recognize that.”

 

Englewood, a community on the south side of Chicago, is one of the most violent in the United States. In 2022, the Englewood area accounted for about 10% of all gun violence that occurred in Chicago. The community is 94% Black and one of the most socioeconomically vulnerable neighborhoods in the city.

 

The researchers used computational spatial network methods to analyze data on gunshots detected by acoustic sensors operated along Safe Passage Routes for each school in the Englewood School District. These routes are designated routes created to ensure safer travel for students walking to and from school.

 

The study analyzed gunshots detected during the morning (6-9 a.m.) and afternoon (3-6 p.m.) commutes of children during the 2021-22 school year.

 

Acoustic detectors showed 610 gunshots fired in Englewood on days when schools were in session during the school year.  Of, those 52% occurred during afternoon commutes and 12% during the morning commutes.

 

Results showed that 40% of Englewood schools had at least one gunshot fired within 400 meters of the routes to school during the morning commute, and 62% had at least one during the afternoon commute.

 

“Hearing gunshots during school has not typically been considered ‘school gun violence,’ but it should be,” Barboza-Salerno said. “Imagine what that is like for children to hear gunshots while walking to school and how scared they must be.”

 

Analysis of the data showed that shooting incidents cluster along city streets, including safe passage routes, near schools. The configurations of streets that support walking for students also attract other types of foot traffic, and increase the likelihood of violent incidents, Duhaney said.

 

“Youth in violence-prone areas are not safe along Safe Passage Program Routes,” she said.

 

One issue in Englewood is that almost half of residents live in households without access to vehicles, meaning that residents are heavily dependent on public transit and walking.  Other studies have shown that students feel safer going to school via car rather than walking, but that is not an option for many in the community.

 

The researchers noted that the U.S. Department of Education is directed to collect and report on data on school safety, including violence. But they said the definition of gun violence doesn’t currently include witnessing and hearing gun violence.

 

In addition, the focus on student safety should go beyond what happens on school grounds and beyond direct violence: Hardening schools and using metal detectors and police officers there won’t solve the problem, the researchers said. They emphasized the need for policymakers to focus on violence prevention in the communities at large.

 

“We are failing to address the underlying issues in the community that lead to violence,” Barboza-Salerno said. “We need to focus on the root causes.”

 

Hexin Yang, a graduate student in social work and public health at Ohio State, was also a co-author of the study.

 

Nanofluids and turbulators have potential to boost renewable energy and slash dependence on fossil fuels, say scientists




University of Sharjah
Heat Sink 

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Hybrid nanofluid turbulent transportation through a tube with an innovative twisted tape combined with helical fins heat sink.

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Credit: Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 53 (2022). doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2022.102702




Nanofluids and turbulators have enormous potential to boost thermal conductivity, increase heat transfer efficiency, cut energy costs, and reduce reliance on fossil fuels, scientists say.

Nanofluids, also called nanoparticles, are fluids containing nanometer-sized particles, while turbulators, which are typically made of stainless steel, consist of small metal baffles or coiled wire.

Nanofluids and turbulators have recently emerged as new techniques to boost cooling systems, maximize heat transfer rates and enhance renewable energy.

The scientists’ most outstanding finding reveals that substantial benefits in terms of energy transfer, cooling, and heating can be obtained when nanofluids and turbulators are combined to develop techniques that will maximize their functions.

Heating and cooling consume nearly half of the global energy and are responsible for more than 40% of carbon dioxide emissions related to energy. Conditions are expected to aggravate with the demand for air-conditioning slated to surge by 45% in 2050.

For the scientists, it is an urgent matter for the world “to turn to the broader utilization of renewable energies instead of fossil fuels to effectively tackle this widely recognized challenge of transition to sustainable energy.”

They furnish their study “with the design of a roadmap that integrates advanced (nanofluid and turbulator-based) technologies into sustainable energy systems. The authors identify “huge potential in these technologies to make considerable contributions towards the global transition towards renewable energy sources.”

The details and findings of the research are published in the journal Applied Thermal Engineering, and the scientists maintain that there is growing interest in their work and similar types of research from industries like automotive, aerospace, and renewable energy.

The research is the product of collaboration and partnership among five universities in different parts of the world. The authors originate from the University of Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates, U.K.’s Lancaster University, Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Greece’s National Technical University of Athens, and Malaysia’s Sunway University.

The research attends to the need for sustainable energy solutions, helping point the way towards better performance of energy systems with reduced environmental impacts, according to lead author Dr. Zafar Said, an associate professor at University of Sharjah’s College of Engineering.

“This can notably improve the efficiency of renewable energy technologies, besides contributing to a shift away from fossil fuel economies,” Dr. Said goes on. “New materials, such as phase-change materials and hybrid nanofluids, were introduced, holding much promise for more efficient energy storage and transportation.”

Dr. Said, whose research centers on nanofluids, heat transfer and sustainable energy, says he and his colleagues develop new technologies which, if utilized, would “enhance the heat transfer processes, which are crucial in energy applications, focusing on nanofluids, turbulators, and new working fluids to investigate their potential and efficiency improvement in solar collectors and heat exchangers.

“Our research emphasizes environmental sustainability, answering the modern goals for clean energy and low carbon emissions. It looks at how these advanced technologies would be incorporated into large-scale applications and points toward a roadmap for transition toward renewable energy systems.”

In the meantime, the authors admit that the technique, as presented in their study, still “requires careful consideration of potential drawbacks, such as increased nanoparticle deposition, which may reduce system efficiency. This holistic approach considers economic, environmental, and social factors, ensuring compliance with global sustainability benchmarks and contributing to energy system sustainability research.”

However, Dr. Said is upbeat as he endows turbulators and nanofluids with higher thermal conductivity and efficiency, as well as significant potential in cooling systems and renewable energy devices.

“Our research highlights the transformative potential of nanofluids and turbulators in shaping the future of energy systems. Integrating these advanced materials into everyday applications can bridge the gap between energy efficiency and environmental sustainability," he notes.

While the scientists demonstrate how the integration of nanofluids and turbulators can achieve maximum efficiency of cooling and heating devices in terms of environment, volume, and cost, they at the same time underscore certain challenges ahead, particularly in relation to stability and scalability. “These practical techniques thus illustrate that modern heat transfer systems can be feasible and usable in reality. Translating theory into practice becomes easier in this respect,” they write.

Dr. Said points out that the research’s findings “directly apply to efficient systems design in HVAC, transportation, and renewable energy industries, further showing the scalability and systems economics at larger sizes.”

HVAC, an acronym for Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning, is a system operating various technologies that can comfortably and sustainably control humidity, temperature, and purity of the air in enclosed spaces.

The authors note, “The future energy systems are going to be designed based on the principles of efficiency and the usage of new materials. Some of the major challenges in research involve developing new materials and combinations to achieve cost reductions and enhancement of heat transfer using turbulators and special fluids.

“This paper has highlighted the importance of efficient energy consumption by combining different new methods with renewable and alternative energy sources. It is urgent to turn to the broader utilization of renewable energies instead of fossil fuels to effectively tackle this widely recognized challenge of transition to sustainable energy.”

The authors describe their research as “visionary” as it outlines “key hurdles to be conquered if such technologies significantly impact future sustainable energy systems.” They provide a guideline on how to address the remaining technological obstacles.

“These are inclusively outlined as novel material development, performance enhancement, long-term stability, life cycle methodology, and cost reduction in implementing innovative technologies into large-scale industrial applications.”

Other obstacles for future research to tackle, according to the authors, include attaining industrial-scale technologies, reducing costs further and reaching a sustainable level of scalability and material compatibility.

“The realization of the technology, cost, scalability, and material compatibility are key factors to consider. These technologies can also be applied to many disciplines, like those concerned with automotive and aerospace engineering, where the control of heat is very much an issue.”

Despite obstacles, the authors assert that the future holds bright prospects for “nanofluids, turbulators, and new working fluids [which] are expected to become the keys to revolutionizing heat transfer. Advancements in these fields will have an impact on automotive and aerospace engineering, which would greatly benefit from improved thermal management.

“Moreover, applying heat transfer enhancement techniques can lead to a higher pressure drop in the flow, which increases the unit's operational cost, especially in the cases with turbulators. However, the proper design of the enhanced units can minimize the increase in the pumping work demand, and finally, the overall designs can effectively enhance the global system performance.”

They stress that additional research is necessary to bridge the chasm between theory and practice in the use cases involving nanofluids, turbulators, and new working fluids, and also to improve aeronautical and automotive cooling systems.

“Nanofluids can be used to enhance the heat transfer inside car cooling systems. This will provide improved performance and better fuel economy for automobiles. Specific case studies can be done on this,” the authors highlight in their study.

They also urge scientists to introduce machine learning in their research to optimize their technologies and devices using nanofluids and turbulators. This approach “leverages AI and machine learning to tune a system to the most optimal configuration for business. It greatly reduces experimentation and accelerates the dissemination of technologies.”

 

Unravelling how meteorological conditions cause changes in atmospheric fine-particle concentration




Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Flow chart of the joint data assimilation system that simultaneously optimizes the initial chemical fields and emissions 

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Flow chart of the joint data assimilation system that simultaneously optimizes the initial chemical fields and emissions

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Credit: ZHANG Shan




New research published in the journal Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters reports significant progress in studying the relationship between meteorological conditions and atmospheric fine-particle (PM2.5) concentrations.

 

Air pollution is a major global challenge, in which PM2.5 is a critical pollutant. The variation in PM2.5 concentrations not only affects the quality of the atmospheric environment, but also has a direct impact on human health. Thus, exploring the causes of PM2.5 concentration changes, especially the influence of meteorological conditions, has emerged as a hot topic in scientific research.

 

In this new study, meteorological fields were obtained using two sets of data to analyze the differences in the simulated PM2.5 concentration. Results showed that the meteorological field had a strong influence on the concentration levels and spatial distribution of the simulated pollution. Also, one of the data sources resulted in relatively smaller simulation errors, allowing more accurate modeling of PM2.5 concentrations.

 

Based on a constructed joint data assimilation system (see figure), the research team quantitatively assessed the impact of different meteorological fields on the simulated PM2.5 concentrations and revealed the key roles of specific meteorological factors such as wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, and boundary layer height in the accumulation, maintenance, and dissipation of pollutants. Notably, the temperature at a height of 2 m showed a positive correlation with the PM2.5 concentration in the northern part of China and a negative correlation in the southern part of the country.

 

The joint assimilation system demonstrated its ability to absorb multi-moment observations effectively and easily. Experimental results with the assimilation system showed that it can effectively reduce the uncertainty in PM2.5 predictions during pollution episodes by simultaneously optimizing initial mass concentrations and emissions.

 

According to Prof. Tian, the corresponding author of the study, this discovery provides new ideas and methods for improving the accuracy of PM2.5 predictions. Moreover, it carries significant importance for formulating more effective air pollution prevention and control strategies.

 

Feeling the heat across the Middle East 




King Abdullah University of Science & Technology (KAUST)




A new international climate modeling study led by researchers at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) highlights different potential scenarios for the future climate of the Arabian Peninsula, depending on which climate policies are implemented.[1]

The Arabian Peninsula has long been known for its high temperatures and water scarcity that challenge living and working there. However, these problems will only exasperate with the temperature increases predicted by all climate models, affecting a population that is expected to double between now and the end of the century. 

KAUST Emeritus Professor Georgiy Stenchikov, who this month was part of the team of KAUST and international researchers that won the “Nobel” prize for high-performance computing, the ACM Gordon Bell Prize for Climate Modelling, led the Arabian Peninsula study using a sophisticated tool known as “statistical downscaling” that was applied to climate models to analyze the Middle East region. 

“We applied statistical downscaling to 26 global climate models under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, giving us a spatial resolution of 9 km” said Stenchikov. “This fine resolution enhances our ability to detect and analyze regional warming and hotspots more effectively, presenting the most accurate regional-scale prediction of temperature change over the Middle East and North Africa.”  

After applying this technique, Stenchikov, along with his colleagues and lead author Abdul Malik, found that some regions in the Middle East are heating at rates three times faster than global averages.  

In the best-case scenario, if greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero by 2050, which reflects the goals of the Paris Agreement, animations from the modeling reveal that temperatures of the Arabian Peninsula will still rise by more than 2.5 degrees before the year 2100, with some parts warming 3.5 times faster than global averages.  

In the more alarming scenario, if greenhouse gas emissions reach what climate scientists call the “high emission scenario,” several provinces in Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh, may see average temperatures rise by more than 9 degrees this century. These temperature rises are expected to put severe stress on both the habitability and economic productivity of the region, reiterating the importance of good climate policy. 

This research highlights KAUST’s focus on tackling regional climate issues, aligning with its efforts highlighted at COP16 to combat desertification and promote sustainability.

Reference

  1. Malik, A., Stenchikov, G., Mostamandi, S., Parajuli, S., Lelieveld, J., Zittis, G., Sheraz Ahsan, M., Atique, L., Usman, M. Accelerated Historical and Future Warming in the Middle East and North Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 129, 22 (2024).| article