Tariff fears spark disconnect in silver and copper markets

Bloomberg News | January 9, 2025 

Stock image.

Copper and silver futures in New York are surging above rival international price benchmarks as traders ramp up bets that Donald Trump will impose hefty import tariffs on the metals as part of a broader escalation of his global trade war.


Front-month Comex silver futures traded at above a $0.90-an-ounce premium over spot bullion prices set in London on Thursday, nearing a peak seen in December as traders reacted to Trump’s pledges to apply universal tariffs on all goods from all countries. That would include key economic adversaries like China and trading partners such as Canada and Mexico.




The fresh spike in premiums comes as uncertainty and anxiety over the likely scope of Trump’s trade policies ramps up across financial markets ahead of his Jan. 20 inauguration. The Washington Post reported his team are planning narrower import tariffs on critical goods, potentially including copper, though Trump denied the story. And on Wednesday, CNN said Trump is weighing declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal ground for universal tariffs, citing people familiar with the matter.

“Investors around the world have started the year looking for protection against sticky and potentially rising inflation, fiscal debt worries and the unpredictability of Trump,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank. The blowout in Comex prices is “is definitely part of the Trump unpredictability story.”

Front-month Comex copper also traded at a $623-a-ton premium over equivalent futures set on the London Metal Exchange, nearing record levels seen during a historic short squeeze that rocked the global copper market last year. Traders have been rushing to ship copper into US warehouses to cash in on the spike in prices since last year, and similar efforts have been underway since New York silver prices started to take off.

But while the price dislocations present big opportunities for traders with metal on hand to deliver into Comex warehouses, they also create huge risks for investors who don’t.

Prices in the New York and London metals markets normally trade in near lockstep, and many algorithmic traders and hedge funds seek to make money with wagers that any pricing gaps that do appear will close up again quickly.

In copper, that could involve buying London copper contracts and simultaneously selling Comex futures, and typically, those so-called arbitrage trades bring prices quickly back into line. Investors can face huge losses if the price gap keeps getting wider.

That dynamic was a key factor behind last year’s copper squeeze, when arbitrage traders faced spiraling losses on their bets that Comex prices would fall relative to LME futures. Now, some traders and analysts say there’s a risk of a redux in the silver market, due to the limited availability of metal that can be readily delivered against Comex futures.

“The market is sleepwalking into a squeeze right now,” Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, said in an interview. “People are completely disregarding this risk.”


In the silver market, major dealers can ship metal from London to New York warehouses to close out arbitrage trades, and 15 million ounces of silver have been added in Comex silver warehouses during the past five weeks. Typically, silver is transported by ships and the usual lead time is 30 to 45 days.

But stockpiles in the London market have been drained heavily following four years of severe shortfalls in global mined silver production, and further outflows risk creating a knock-on spike in prices, Ghali said.

“We expect the drain to be significant in scale,” he said. “This is the silver squeeze that you can buy into.”

(By Yvonne Yue Li)

Panama opens public consultation on First Quantum mine

Staff Writer | January 9, 2025 

Cobre Panama copper mine contributed almost 5% of Panama’s GDP. 

(Image courtesy of Franco-Nevada assets handbook.)

Panama’s government has kicked off a public consultation on an environmental audit of First Quantum Minerals’s (TSX: FM) Cobre Panama copper mine, which was announced in mid-2024 by then president-elect José Raúl Mulino.


The Ministry of Environment (MiAmbiente) invited this week environmental organizations, local communities, academia, the private sector, and the general public to participate in the process, which will remain open until February 7.

Mulino announced in July last year he would order a “strict audit” of the $10 billion mine, which was shuttered in 2023 after Panama’s Supreme Court deemed that its operating contract was unconstitutional.

He has criticized his predecessor for failing to resolve the issue and committed to tackling it with what he described as “credibility and national acceptance.”


The closure of Cobre Panama marked a turning point for a mine that once contributed nearly 5% of Panama’s GDP and accounted for 75% of its exports.

Experts estimate the economic impact of the closure could result in losses of $18 billion over the next 10 years. First Quantum also initiated two arbitration cases seeking damages from Panama.

The primary objective of the audit is to evaluate the possibility of a temporary reopening of Cobre Panama while ensuring a safe and environmentally responsible final closure.

Authorities aim to identify and assess current and potential environmental risks and damage, analyze the state of conservation of the originally permitted area, evaluate the interventions carried out, and assess the area’s environmental quality. They will also propose mitigation, remediation, and environmental restoration measures while determining the costs associated with implementing an environmentally responsible closure plan.

“The closure plan must have as its final objective to ensure that the previously intervened area recovers as closely as possible to its state prior to mining activities, thereby restoring its biodiversity and ecological functionality,” the ministry stated.

Penguins and red tape: Chile says ‘no’ to $2.5bn Dominga mine again

Reuters | January 8, 2025 | 

Dominga is located about 65 km (40 miles) north of the central city of La Serena.

 (Digital rendition of project, courtesy of Andes Iron)

Chile’s government on Wednesday denied an environmental permit for the proposed Dominga iron and copper mine, siding with critics concerned over impacts to penguins and parrots at the $2.5 billion project that has sparked debate for a decade.


Chile’s Committee of Ministers said the plan from privately-owned Andes Iron required special sensitivity due to the area’s “unique characteristics” as a home to penguins and species in conservation categories which reduced the tolerance for risk.

The project highlights Chile’s challenges balancing economic growth with environmental protections and is a reminder of bureaucratic mazes that the mining sector has harshly criticized for stalling projects.

The committee’s decision came after an environmental court ordered it to re-do a January 2023 vote that had struck down environmental approvals for the project.


Chile-based Andes Iron has repeatedly defended the mine as meeting environmental regulations and on Wednesday said it will take legal action.

“The action of the Committee of Ministers sets an unfortunate precedent never seen before in the history of Chile in terms of environmental permits,” it said in a statement.

The company has also accused the government of bias against the project, pointing to the nearby Cruz Grande port that was granted an environmental permit.

The committee’s decision sends a broader message that could discourage investment, said Juan Ignacio Guzman, head of Chilean mining consultancy GEM.

“This decision by the committee means that in reality, abiding by the processes and permits in Chile doesn’t guarantee you can make investments happen,” he said.

The head of Chile’s National Mining Society (Sonami), Jorge Riesco, called the ruling a disappointment.

“We lost the opportunity to send a strong signal of trust to investors,” he said in a statement, adding the project had met all technical requirements.

The committee said it considered various citizen complaints, and agreed with concerns over biodiversity impacts and lack of a mitigation plan for potential spills of fuel or iron concentrate.

Its analysis noted the unique mix of species in the area, including the Humboldt penguin and aquatic mammals such as dolphins, and said Andes Iron had failed to gauge impacts on two plants that are a food source and habitat for the tricahue, an endangered parrot.

“It was not possible to determine or evaluate the real impact on these species,” the committee said.

(By Fabian Cambero, Alexander Villegas and Daina Beth Solomon; Editing by Sonali Paul)

M23  CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

Congo rebels muddy minerals market with illegal Rwanda exports, says UN report

Reuters | January 8, 2025 | 

The Luwowo coltan mine near Rubaya, DRC. Credit: Wikipedia

Rebels in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo fraudulently exported at least 150 metric tons of coltan to Rwanda last year, leading to the largest contamination of the Great Lakes Region’s mineral supply chain on record, UN experts said in a report.


The flows started after the M23 movement, a Tutsi-led organization purportedly backed by Rwanda, seized the Rubaya area, which produces minerals used in smartphones and computers, following intense fighting in April.

M23’s control of transport routes from Rubaya to Rwanda led to Rubaya minerals mixing in with Rwandan production, the UN Security Council’s Group of Experts said in the report, published on Wednesday.

“This constitutes the most important contamination of supply chains with ineligible … minerals recorded in the Great Lakes region over the last decade,” the report said, referring to a vast area that includes north-east Congo, Rwanda, and other countries east of Congo.

Rwanda and M23 did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The situation complicates procurement for technology manufacturers, who are under scrutiny to ensure that metals used in their products are not sourced from conflict zones like eastern Congo.

The report said the rebels established a so-called mining ministry in the occupied territory and ensured a monopoly for the export of coltan to Rwanda from Rubaya, which has one of the world’s largest deposits of the strategic mineral.

In this way, the militants collected at least $800,000 per month in taxes on coltan production and trade in Rubaya, it said.

On the ground, the rebels doubled the wages of diggers to convince them to keep working in Rubaya and oversaw forced labour to widen roads to accommodate truck transport. They also patrolled the town and its mining sites to make sure minerals were only sold to authorized Congolese and Rwandan traders, it said.

In December, Congo filed criminal complaints against Apple subsidiaries in France and Belgium, accusing the tech firm of using conflict minerals in its supply chain. Apple disputes the allegations and says it has told its suppliers they must not use the minerals in question sourced from Congo or Rwanda.

(By Sonia Rolley and Alessandra Prentice; Editing by Alexandra Hudson)

 

HD Hyundai Targets $18B in Orders as Korea Raises Industry Support

HD Hyundai is targeting $18.12 billion in orders while it expects to deliver 139 newbuilds in 2025 (HD Hyundai file photo)

Published Jan 6, 2025 3:15 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

HD Hyundai, South Korea’s largest shipbuilder, announced its order target for 2025 increasing it over last year but forecasting slowed industry growth. Recognizing the strong competition, Korea’s Export-Import Bank also said it would be increasing its financing capacity in 2025 for the shipbuilding industry.

The South Korean industry continues to face fierce competition said the president of the Korea Export-Import Bank Yoon-Hee-seong. The bank he reported will be increasing its financing capacity in 2025 by approximately 10 percent to support the shipbuilding industry. According to the reports, the bank will make approximately $8.2 billion in financing available for the export of ships, an increase of $683 million versus 2024.

The bank cited data from Clarkson and others reporting that overall shipbuilding orders are expected to fall by nearly 30 percent in 2025. They projected orders of 42 million compensated gross tons down from 59 million CGT in 2024.

Hyundai said its focus will remain on higher-value vessels and environmental applications such as ammonia dual-fuel as well as new technologies. The company reported in a stock exchange filing that its target for 2025 is $18.12 billion in orders. They are raising the target by 34 percent compared to its target for 2024. However, the company exceeded its 2024 target booking orders valued at $20.56 billion. As such, the target for 2025 is 12 percent lower than the actual results in 2024.

The shipyard highlights that its near-term building slots are committed with years’ worth of backlog. The order targets are divided with $9.75 billion at the largest yard HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, $4.5 billion at the Samho yard, and $3.8 billion at the Mipo yard.

The group started 2025 strong delivering its first vessel, a 174,000 cbm LNG to an Asian shipping company. They highlighted the vessel was ordered in 2022 when the company set a record with 44 orders for LNG carriers. Today, January 6, the group also celebrated the naming of two ammonia dual-fuel vessels at its Mipo yard in Ulsan. The vessels were ordered by Exmar.  They also reported that the Mipo yard is scheduled to deliver a 16,000 TEU containership and a 2,800 TEU vessel tomorrow, January 7.

The outlook for 2025 includes deliveries across the major categories of ships. Scheduled completions include 26 LNG carriers, 14 LPG carriers, two ethane carriers, and one liquid CO2 carrier. They expect to complete a total of 40 containerships and 50 crude oil and product tankers.

South Korea’s strategy for combating the increasing competition from Chinese shipbuilders has been to focus on high-value and more complex ships. While China continues to make inroads into the LNG carrier segment, South Korea is pursuing eco-friendly technologies and vessel automation to maintain its position in the shipbuilding market.

 

Shell Reaps Rewards of "Design-One, Build-Many" With Whale Platform

Courtesy Shell

Published Jan 9, 2025 4:33 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

 

Shell has brought its Whale offshore production facility in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico online, the supermajor announced Thursday. The floating platform is located about 200 miles off Houston in about 8,600 feet of water, and will addan estimated 100,000 bpd of peak production to Shell's portfolio.  

"Whale demonstrates our focus on driving more value with less emissions from our upstream business as we deliver the energy people need today," said Shell gas and upstream director Zoe Yujnovich. "It will make a significant contribution to our commitment to bring projects online, with a total peak production of more than 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from 2023 through 2025."

To keep down cost, Whale reused about 99 percent of the hull design and 80 percent of the topside design from Shell's Vito platform. Shell also invested in more efficient gas turbines and compression systems to bring down greenhouse gas intensity by about 30 percent compared to Vito - tracking with Shell's intention to keep its GHG intensity among the lowest in the world. Shell holds a 60 percent operating share for Whale, and Chevron holds the balance. 

Whale's development was rapid by offshore standards. The field was discovered in 2017 and achieved first oil just 7.5 years later, thanks in part to Shell's decision to reuse many design elements from Vito. It would have been even faster if not for the pandemic: Shell paused its final investment decision on Whale for a year as part of a cash-preservation strategy during the COVID era. 

Shell is taking the same standardization approach with its Sparta platform, under construction at Seatrium. Sparta will be Shell's 15th deepwater platform in the Gulf, and should come online in 2028. Sparta will be the first in the series will all-electric topside compression equipment, enhancing efficiency, and will be Shell's first Gulf development in reservoirs over the 20,000-PSI pressure mark. The basic hull and topside arrangement - and importantly, the team - will remain the same. 

“With Sparta, we’re not just repeating the design with Whale, but also relationships with many of the key vendors, fabricators and suppliers,” Shell Project Manager Oro Awaritefe told Offshore Magazine last year. “This helps bring certainty in the design.”

 

Australian Border Force Captures 12 Illegal Fishing Boats in a Month

Courtesy ABF

Published Jan 9, 2025 5:03 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

 

The Australian Border Force is pushing back hard on illegal fishing off the country's northern coast, where Indonesian fishermen often trespass to harvest protected species. In the last 30 days alone, ABF officers have seized a dozen vessels and six tonnes of illegally-caught seafood, the agency said Thursday. 

In December, the agency launched a new operation to intercept foreign fishing vessels off the Northern Territories, a long and empty stretch of coastal waters with little local traffic. The new push has been bearing fruit: 12 vessels have been interdicted, including two that were destroyed at sea.

On Saturday, in the latest intercept, ABF officers boarded a suspect vessel off the remote Cobourg Peninsula, a national park at the northern tip of the NT. There were seven crewmembers aboard the boat, along with two tonnes of sea cucumber and fishing equipment. After consulting with the Australian Fisheries Management Authority, the agents returned the catch over the side and released the suspects, directing them to exit Australian waters. 

"With well in excess of 10,000km of NT coastline to protect – vast amounts of which is situated in very remote areas – we are not naive enough to suggest that we can be everywhere at any one time, which is why members of the public are important as extra eyes and ears," Acting Commander Tracie Griffin said. "Everyone can do their part by simply keeping a watchful eye and reporting anything out of the ordinary." 

Local First Nations have reported an increasing number of Indonesian fishermen and maritime migrants along the remote coast of the Northern Territories, including some unprepared arrivals who have had to be rescued. In October, a group of up to 30 unauthorized migrants from four boats were reported - igniting a minor political furor in Australia, where maritime migration is rigorously discouraged. 

"These illegal fishermen have been stealing from our Sea Country and encroaching on our land for a long time now and they have recently stepped up the pace," Northern Land Council chair Matthew Ryan told The Guardian last year. "Now we know for sure that they’re people smuggling as well, which takes it to a whole new level."

BOMB SHIP

Ivory Coast Holds Ammonium Nitrate Cargo Offshore as Concerns Continues

Port of Abidjan is holding the cargo ship laden with ammonium nitrate offshore (Port of Abidjan file photo)

Published Jan 6, 2025 12:28 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

The Port of Abidjan in the Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire) has decided to hold the cargo ship laden with ammonium nitrate offshore while it reviews safety concerns raised in the community and the local media. It is a continuation of the drama that began in September with bulker Ruby and now with the cargo transferred to the Barbados-flagged cargo ship Zimrida (37,296 dwt).

Concerns were reported in the Ivory Coast that the cargo aboard the vessel might have become contaminated and possibly unstable. The vessel took board nearly all the 20,000 tonnes of ammonium nitrate fertilizer that was first shipped from Russia last summer. The first ship, Ruby (37,000 dwt) was damaged in an Arctic storm and sought refuge in Norway. It was denied multiple ports before finally being permitted to offload its cargo in Great Yarmouth in the UK.

Serenity Ship Management based in the UAE which manages Ruby arranged for the cargo to be transferred to another vessel it manages, Zimrida, as part of the agreement. However, it came out in the British press that some of the cargo had been contaminated with fuel oil. That portion was reportedly dumped by the Ruby into the North Sea. However, concerns are being raised in Abidjan that the cargo aboard the Zimrida might also be contaminated.

Port officials in a statement on January 4 said they had decided to hold the vessel offshore while they were meeting on Monday, January 6, with the buyer of the cargo, the carrier, and customs officials. 

Zimrida had arrived off Ivory Coast on December 30 and had been scheduled to dock this afternoon local time, January 6, in Abidjan. According to the statement, the plan was to offload 3,000 tons of the fertilizer which is in bags. There was no information on where the remainder of the cargo would be going.

The port highlights that ammonium nitrate is a regular fertilizer and that all cargoes landed are subject to strict safety protocols. They said the port of Abidjan handled 20,000 tons of traffic in 2023 and 38,000 tons in 2024.

“This is the place to reassure the Ivorian populations that all goods, entering or disembarking in Ivorian ports, are subject to diligent control by the competent State services, which constantly monitor the health and safety of the populations,” the port authority wrote in its statement.

As of late Monday afternoon, local time, the Zimrida continues to wait offshore according to its AIS signal.

 

Construction Underway for Luxury, Low-Emission Arctic Cruise Ship

Captain Arctic aims to reduce emissions by 90 percent using sails and solar power (Selar)

Published Jan 7, 2025 4:33 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

 

Work is underway to build what is being billed as the most sustainable cruise ship. Known as Captain Arctic, it is designed to present a new level of luxury expedition in the Arctic.

Goltens highlighted the keel laying and its role in the development of the new ship. The ceremony took place on November 22 marking the start of the construction of the 70-meter (230-foot) hull which Goltens notes is also a first for the UAE.

The concept for the ship was developed by Sophie Galvagnon who has worked for nearly 20 years in the commercial shipping industry. She notes for a decade she has led expeditions into the Arctic but the trips have become “disconnected from the traditional ways.” Expedition cruising started with a focus on the destination but in recent years the cruise industry has focused on luxury amenities aboard the ships and add-ons such as submarines and helicopters.

Galvagnon reports she and the team spent the past two years designing the innovative ship, convincing the market of the opportunity, and funding the project. They launched a French company, Selar, which they believe will present a new approach to sustainable tourism.

The Captain Arctic represents the company says a new vision in luxury cruise expeditions. The vessel has accommodations for just 36 passengers and will carry a crew of 24. There will be no set itineraries and schedules but instead, it will be a unique adventure offering chances to encounter polar bears, navigate through ice, and kayak among grounding icebergs.

 

 

The ship will be powered by five 35-meter-high (115-foot) retractable solar sails. Built to endure the harshest weather, they will be made of aluminum and fitted with 2,000 square meters of solar panels. The ship will have shaft generators and batteries to store power. The heating onboard will be from a pellet boiler that uses recycled wooden waste pellets. The ship will have an engine, using biofuel made from vegetable oil, but seeks to operate almost exclusively on the sails and solar power.

“Beyond tourism, our first ship will support science through zero emission logistics and remove over five tons of plastic annually,” Galvagnon writes on social media. She says the ship will produce 90 percent less emissions.

The project is a partnership between Goltens and Chantier Naval de l'Ocean Indien (CNOI), based in Port Louis, Mauritius. Bureau Veritas is the class society for the vessel. Selar on its website shows the first trip in November 2026 with the Captain Arctic sailing from Troms?, Norway.

 

RIP

Experienced Fisherman Dies of Hypothermia in English Channel Rescue

Eastbourne RNLI lifeboat responds to the distress call from the Jerki (Eastbourne RNLI)

Published Jan 6, 2025 6:29 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

Last weekend, an experienced fisherman went over the side of a commercial trawler in the English Channel and died of hypothermia, according to local media.

Glenn Vandewalle, 50, was a lifelong fisherman and a crewmember aboard the beam trawler Jerki Z-45. On Saturday, the vessel was operating about 12 nautical miles off Eastbourne, England in rough weather when Vandewalle fell over the side. 

His crewmates initiated a rescue and called the UK Coastguard for help. The Royal National Lifeboat Institution (RNLI) station in Eastborne received the call just before midnight and quickly dispatched their volunteer-crewed response boat, the Esme Anderson, to join the search.

The Jerki's crew conducted their own search pattern for Vandewalle, though they were hampered by onboard mechanical troubles. In darkness, driving rain and waves of up to 12 feet, the small trawler's crew managed to find the helmsman in the water. They recovered him aboard the vessel, but he succumbed to hypothermia. 

The RNLI lifeboat stood down and returned to its station once the Jerki had Vandewalle aboard; the trawler returned to port at Oostende, Belgium to deliver the victim's body to shore. 

The public prosecutor's office in West Flanders, Belgium has started an investigation into how Vandewalle went over the side, but at this point officials are treating the casualty as an accident, according to The Fishing Daily. 

Jerki's operating company, Aude Audenda, issued a brief statement commemorating Vandewalle's life and expressing sympathy for his loved ones. "Out of respect for the family and our crew, we want to let them process this tragic accident in peace," the firm said. "We can only stress that Glenn was a well-liked and experienced fisherman, a fisherman through and through."