Friday, January 10, 2025

Drones, Nukes and the Myth of Reactor Safety



 January 10, 2025

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Terrifying reports from the Ukraine-Russia front underscore an inescapable new nuclear reality:  in the age of drone warfare, the alleged safety of atomic reactors has leapt to a whole new level of myth.

No matter how thick the containment domes, or how vehement the industry denials, a quantum leap in the killing power of weaponized drones has completely blown past official atomic safety assurances.

The unwelcome new reality has been brought home by two recent features in the New York Times.

A devastating, Pulitzer-level dispatch from C.J. Chivers in the New York Times Magazine covering the Ukrainian killing fields seems to announce a total transformation in trench warfare.

In excruciating detail, Chivers documents the new-found ability of remote drone operators to overcome with lethal force virtually any defensive barrier or evasive maneuver.

From safe bunkers sometimes miles away, Ukrainian operators now send small un-manned devices worth as little as $400 to destroy tanks and heavy artillery pieces worth multi-millions.  They’re also killing terrified Russian soldiers in open fields or dense underbrush even as they desperately try to escape.  The Ukrainians are even flying their drones deep into buried bunkers, obliterating whoever’s in there.

Amidst a campaign to deploy a million drones per year, the vastly outnumbered Ukrainians have been able to overcome with astonishing ease highly complex, sophisticated defensive barriers as well as frenzied, desperate attempts at evasion.

Many of the operators are young and lightly trained.  Their weapons are essentially cheap household toys.

The Russian adversaries they target often know the drones are coming.  Yet the Ukrainians inflict brutal, lethal, hugely expensive damage with shocking ease.

There are eight atomic power plants in the Russo-Ukrainian war zone:  six at Zaporizhzhia, two at Kursk.  A wide range of hostile acts and basic incompetence continually threaten their security.

If severely damaged, or deprived of cooling water, or cut off from back-up power supplies, any one of them could melt or explode.  Each could blanket large swaths of the Earth and many of Europe and Asia’s largest cities with deadly radiation, inflicting enormous human and permanent ecological devastation.

 Such a horror could far exceed what followed the 1986 explosion at Chernobyl Unit Four, which contained significantly less core radiation than at Kursk and Zaporizhzhia, which have operated far longer.

Reactor containment domes are often constructed with thick, reinforced concrete.  But they’re very far from invulnerable.  The routes to major catastrophe are far too numerous to delineate or discount.  They plague in various forms all the 400+ nuclear power plants licensed worldwide, including the 90+ in the United States.

A second Times piece warns that weaponized drones have become part of a “hybrid” global conflict operating in an amorphous “Gray Zone.  The ability to wreck lethal, unimaginably costly havoc is virtually unlimited.

With easily deployed drones like those now ravaging Eastern Europe… hostile nations, rogue armies, tiny terror groups or even a lone psychopath could handily turn any number of commercial reactors into lethal engines of a radioactive apocalypse.

Atomic technology has been in civilian use since the 1957 opening of Pennsylvania’s Shippingport reactor.  The US Congress at the time promised the public that the “Peaceful Atom” would have comprehensive liability insurance within fifteen years.

But nearly seven decades later, no commercial US atomic power plant has blanket private accident insurance against a major catastrophe.  Homeowners policies nationwide specifically exempt a nuclear disaster.  When push comes to shove, you will pay for your own irradiation.

All atomic power plants emit radioactive Carbon 14, expand global CO2 levels in the mining and fuel fabrication process, burn at 540+ degrees Fahrenheit, bathe their neighborhoods in “low level” radiation, create unmanageable wastes, cost far more than renewables by factors of 2-400% and more while producing inflexible “baseload” power that clogs the grid.

They have always been vulnerable to explosion due to natural disasters (as at Fukushima), mismanagement (Chernobyl) or military/terror attacks.

The advent of drone warfare has taken all that to a terrifying, uninsurable new level.

Yet in servitude to a new generation of nukes, Congress has approved a 40-year extension of the original Federal insurance exemption.  Thus by the 2060s the industry could have operated an entire century while unable to obtain the basic private insurance necessary to protect the public from a major radiation release.

A whole new level of terror is now being inflicted in the Ukraine-Russian war zone by drones barely beyond neighborhood toys.

The nuke industry’s insistence that we have nothing to fear from military or terror attacks on its un-insured fleet has lost any residual credibility.

Given the horrific new reality of drone warfare, generating hyper-expensive radioactive power and waste from hot, dirty, decrepit reactors is more insane than ever.

Harvey Wasserman wrote THE PEOPLE’S SPIRAL OF US HISTORY: FROM JIGONSASEH TO SOLARTOPIA.  Most Mondays @ 2-4pm PT, he co-convenes the Green Grassroots Election Protection Zoom (www.electionprotection2024).  The Mothers for Peace (www.mothersforpeace.org) could use your help in the struggle to shut the Diablo Canyon nukes.  


Net Zero/2050 Fantasy or Reality?


January 10, 2025
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Net Zero/2050 Fantasy or Reality may be the most significant issue of the 21st century.

Net Zero refers to the balance between the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG), such as CO2, that’s produced and the amount that’s removed from the atmosphere. It can be achieved through a combination of emission reduction and emission removal.

The relationship between CO2 and a warmer/hotter climate is basic science: For example, according to Climate.gov: “The relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) and global temperatures is directly proportional: As CO2 levels in the atmosphere increase, so do global temperatures, primarily because CO2 acts as a greenhouse gas, trapping heat from the sun.”

If Net Zero/2050 is fantasy (false hope), the repercussions are unimaginable. The science is clear. Major ecosystems of the planet like Greenland, Antarctica, Arctic permafrost, and the Amazon rainforest are already severely stressed, right now, today. Climate Change is already doing its dirty work where nobody resides. There are hundreds of headlines in science journals, magazines, and research papers describing trouble with the world’s most important ecosystems.

Headline examples:

-Emergency Meeting Reveals the Alarming Extent of Antarctica’s Ice Loss (Earth.org)

– Methane Bombs’ Release 30 Years Equivalent of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Risk Triggering Climate Catastrophe (Earth.org)

– Critical Slowing down of the Amazon Forest After Increased Drought Occurrence ( PNAS – National Academy of Sciences)

– Thawing Permafrost Poses Environmental Threat to Thousands of Sites with Legacy Industrial Contamination (Nature Communications)

–  A Collapse of the Amazon Could Be Coming ‘Faster Than We Thought,’ The New York Times (The New York Times)

– Staggering Temperature Rise Predicted for the Middle East and North Africa: Some Parts of the Region, Which is Already Warming at the Same Rapid Rate as the Arctic, Could See up to 9 Degrees Celsius of Warming (Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmosphere)

To mitigate, or prevent, the ‘unimageable’, there are hundreds of well-intentioned publications about the pathway to Net Zero emissions by 2050. On balance, they talk favorably about reaching Net Zero by 2050, and these prognostications are found in science publications, economic papers, online sites, and pretty much everywhere, with a strong sense of accomplishment in the offing. Plans to achieve Net Zero/2050 seem to satisfy people in general, believing success is on-target, no worries. But reality tells a different story.

According to UN Climate Action: Based upon national action plans in effect, as of November 2024, the decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2019 will be 2.6%. But according to the Paris ’15 Agreement, a reduction of 43% from 2019 levels is required by 2030 to be on track for Net Zero/2050. That’s pathetically insignificant.

There are plenty of doubters about Net Zero/2050, especially in academia. The MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research published an analysis d/d October 2023. It’s one of many high-level studies: Is Net Zero a Possible Solution to the Climate Problem? A 14-page in-depth analysis: “This commentary explains why achieving global Net-zero is highly unlikely by any certain date and, even if achieved, will not necessarily solve the climate problem. The major obstacles to successful Net-zero are unpredictable, involve significant political issues, and are not easily described in econometric models.”

Meanwhile, as the world waits for Net Zero/2050, climate change clobbers the world over the past two years, 2023-24, setting new records galore, and just to think, Net Zero/2050 is still 25 years away. This despite western democracies such as the UK and Germany and Far Eastern countries like China making solid progress with renewables in 2023-24. Still, the drumbeat of higher CO2 emissions is relentless, higher than ever, and regrettably higher in the face of record-setting renewable installations but in harmony with consistently high oil production.

The amount of CO2 into the atmosphere is straight-forward and easily calculated because human machines like cars and power plants that burn fossil fuels are easily identified. For comparison purposes, 11 billion tons per year was emitted when JFK was president in the early 1960s. Whereas: “Total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are projected to be 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024, up from 40.6 billion tonnes last year. This includes fossil CO2 emissions of 37.4 billion, and the rest from land-use change (deforestation), according to the Global Carbon Budget., Ibid.

Never in human history has so much CO2 been emitted into the atmosphere as today. It’s overwhelming. What if a scientist in 1960, when CO2 emissions were 11 billion metric tons per year, predicted CO2 emissions 65 years hence would be 40 billion metric tons per year? It would’ve been labeled kooky, insane, madness!

As a result of today’s madness, i.e., 40B metric tons, global warming has negatively impacted Nature. The world’s major ecosystems are joining the greenhouse gas parade along with cars, trains, planes, and industry, with little respect for Net Zero targeting by 2050. The insanity of this strange concurrence is only too obvious.

Nature commands large reserves of carbon stored over millennia. For example, the Amazon stores an amount of carbon equivalent to 15–20 years of global CO2 emissions. A study published in the journal Nature found that the eastern Amazon has transitioned into a carbon source. This is global warming hard at work and a danger signal if ever there was one.

With Nature’s major ecosystems switching sides from GHG storehouses to GHG emitters, an x-factor comes into play. This is a serious challenge to Net Zero/2050, as the Amazon rainforest and Northern Hemisphere permafrost join alongside planes, trains, cars, and factories spewing CO2 into the atmosphere. Since time immemorial, these ecosystems have been the biggest absorbers of CO2, keeping the climate system in balance. Oops, suddenly that wonderful balancing act is out of kilter.

For example, Arctic permafrost covers 25% of the land mass of the Northern Hemisphere. It’s rapidly joining forces with human-generated emissions. (Northern Permafrost Region Emits More Greenhouse Gases Than It Captures, Eos, April 2024)

“Arctic permafrost stores nearly 1,700 billion metric tons of frozen and thawing carbon. Anthropogenic warming threatens to release an unknown quantity of this carbon to the atmosphere, influencing the climate in processes collectively known as the permafrost carbon feedback.” (Permafrost Carbon Emissions in a Changing Arctic, Nature, January 2022)

Theoretically, human machines can be altered to stop CO2 emissions, but how to stop nature’s ecosystems from going rogue?

There’s a fundamental truth to climate change that’s dictated by the physics of chemical compounds like CO2 composed of molecules. According to Global Greenhouse Gas Watch: “The long lifetime of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere locks in temperature increase for generations to come. Until we reach net zero CO2 emissions globally, world temperatures will continue to rise and cause increasingly severe impacts – as witnessed in 2024 and recent years.” (Record Carbon Emissions Highlight Urgency of Global Greenhouse Gas Watch, World Meteorological Organization – WMO- November 2024)

The WMO statement implies another 25 years of rising temperatures before Net Zero takes effect. Can society weather 25 years of increasing temperatures like what’s happened over the past couple of years?

The past two years have witnessed a brand-new spin on climate change based upon a chaotic climate system in 2023-24, proving climate change is dangerously real, and it’s here now: (1) Exceeded the dreaded +1.5°C pre-industrial target for over 12 months-running (a few years ago scientists thought this ‘might occur’ in decades, not in 2024) (2) Powerful storms damaging property as householder insurance rates skyrocket with dropped home coverage by several major insurance companies on both US coasts; climate change has chased 7 out of 12 major insurance companies out of states prone to global warming-enhanced wildfires (LA today- never seen anything like it) as well as coastal regions (3) Massive atmospheric river flooding events – setting new records for the most flood disasters of all-time, globally (4) Killer drought sequences in sensitive environments like the Amazon rainforest, slammed again and again and again since the year 2000, NASA says it no longer recovers (5) Enormous never witnessed before wildfires, especially Canada and Siberia (6) State of alarm over sudden breakup of Antarctic sea ice extent, 450 polar scientists hold emergency session in Australia.

Polar scientists’ solution: “Drastic action is necessary before it’s too late, calling for immediate reduction of emissions, CO2.”

And Net Zero 2050 is supposed to save us?

Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.