Study: Smartwatches could end the next pandemic
Everyday smartwatches are extremely accurate in detecting viral infection long before symptoms appear — now, research shows how they could help stop a pandemic before it even begins.
Aalto University
image:
An illustrative figure highlighting the impact of early detection via smartwatch on viral spread. The image shows how the model can capture both symptomatic (A and C) and asymptomatic cases (B and D).
view moreCredit: Märt Vesinurm et. al / Aalto University 2025
Everyday smartwatches are extremely accurate in detecting viral infection long before symptoms appear — now, research shows how they could help stop a pandemic before it even begins.
Early detection of sickness is critical for preventing its spread — whether it’s COVID-19, influenza or the common cold. Yet, many illnesses are at their most contagious before people even know they’re sick. Research shows that 44 percent of COVID-19 infections were spread several days before the sufferer came down with symptoms.
Now, researchers at Aalto University, Stanford University and Texas A&M, have released a study that models how smartwatches could provide a simple and effective way to dramatically minimise the unwitting spread of disease in pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic people. The research, published in prestigious US journal PNAS Nexus on March 4, reveals a powerful new tool for pandemic management.
‘Unlike during the pandemic, we now have concrete data on how pandemics develop, and how effective different measures are at curbing the spread. Add to this that wearable technology is now extremely effective when it comes to detecting the very early physiological signs of infection, and we are much better prepared,’ says Märt Vesinurm, from Aalto University in Finland.
How an early ‘ping’ could flatten the curve
Numerous studies have proven the accuracy of wearable devices when it comes to recognising the physiological markers of various illnesses several days before the wearer themself. For example, everyday smartwatches can tell with 88 percent accuracy — from respiration and heart rate, skin temperature and other markers — if you’re coming down with COVID-19. And their accuracy rises to 90 percent accuracy for the flu, Vesinurm says. On average, people reduce social contact between 66-90 percent from the point when they realise they’re sick, even when not in a pandemic situation.
‘Even at the lower end of compliance, if people receive and act on an earlier warning by self-isolating, the impact is significant. Even just a 66-75 percent reduction in social contacts soon after detection by smartwatches — keeping in mind that that’s on a par with what you’d normally do if you had cold symptoms — can lead to a 40-65 percent decrease in disease transmission compared to someone isolating from the onset of symptoms,’ says Vesinurm.
Notably, the research shows that higher compliance, such as that seen in a pandemic situation, could effectively stop a disease in its tracks. So, could smartwatches help us manage potential H5N1 (avian flu) epidemic?
‘I see no reason why not,’ says Vesinurm. ‘As we gather more specific data about how different illnesses affect these measurements, there’s no reason we couldn’t distinguish between diseases, from bird flu and HIV to the common cold, especially when used in conjunction with advanced machine learning methods and other data from the user.’
Towards smarter pandemic policies
The team of researchers are the first to take real world data from numerous peer-reviewed epidemiological, biological and behavioural studies, drawing it together to mathematically model how infection spreads at a population level. Through this powerful combination of data and tech, Vesinurm foresees a future in which smartwatches change the way we deal with pandemics, at both individual and policy level.
‘People are used to wearable devices and they’re likely to trust them. While they’re not yet diagnostic, they could help make unpopular approaches like masks, lockdowns and invasive testing more targeted and less of a blunt instrument,’ he says. An early warning from your smartwatch would be the cue to take other actions, like getting a PCR test, wearing a mask, or ‘not visiting your grandma’. The action would depend on the social context at the time, and an individual’s assessment of risk.
Having this information not only empowers individuals to make choices that keep their loved ones or community safe, but it also gives decision-makers a powerful tool.
‘It could be that governments find it most cost effective in a pandemic situation to provide every person who wants one with a smartwatch — although of course, this comes with its own ethical considerations,’ says Vesinurm. ‘Either way, with early detection literally at our fingertips, I see a lot of reason to hope.’
Journal
PNAS Nexus
Article Title
Terminating Pandemics with Smartwatches
Article Publication Date
4-Mar-2025
Ending pandemics with smartwatches
PNAS Nexus
image:
A graphic for use with “Terminating Pandemics with Smartwatches,” by Märt Vesinurm, Martial Ndeffo-Mbah, Dan Yamin, and Margaret L. Brandeau.
view moreCredit: Natali Tamir
Your smartwatch can probably tell that you are sick before you can—and if everyone followed their watch’s advice to self-isolate, incipient epidemics could be stopped in their tracks, according to a study.
During the early days of COVID-19, research showed that 44% of infections were spread before people even felt sick, making early detection critical for stopping outbreaks. Recent studies have demonstrated that smartwatches can detect infections before symptoms appear by picking up subtle physiological changes, such as shifts in heart rate, sleep patterns, activity levels, and skin temperature. Using machine learning, these signals can help identify infections early and prompt individuals to reduce contact with others, slowing disease spread. To explore the potential impact, Dan Yamin and colleagues developed a mathematical model to estimate how smartwatch-based detection could help control the spread of COVID-19 and influenza. Their findings suggest that if smartwatch detection led infected individuals to reduce their social contacts by 66%, transmission risk could be reduced by nearly 50% for COVID-19 and pandemic influenza. In some scenarios, if social contact was reduced even further, certain COVID-19 variants and influenza strains could be eliminated entirely. The model indicated that earlier detection played a greater role than contact reduction alone in limiting outbreaks. According to the authors, the research highlights the potential of smartwatches in managing infectious diseases. By identifying infections sooner and prompting timely action, wearable technology could help contain future outbreaks, reduce the need for lockdowns, and even prevent pandemics before they start, the authors suggest.
Journal
PNAS Nexus
Article Title
Terminating pandemics with smartwatches
Article Publication Date
4-Mar-2025
