Cleaning up

DAWN
Editorial 

Published May 7, 2025 

THE World Bank’s red alert — that global waste may rise by 73pc by 2050 — spells trouble for countries like Pakistan. Low-income countries bear the brunt of the crisis due to limited infrastructure, poor urban planning and weak enforcement. If current trends continue, the global volume of waste will hit 3.88bn tonnes annually.

 Pakistan, for its part, generates over 3.9m tonnes of plastic every year. And yet, recycling here is virtually non-existent. Unlike in developed nations, where sorting household waste and recycling are routine, most Pakistanis dispose of all waste — organic, recyclable, hazardous — in the same bin, if not chucking it out of moving cars onto the street. This lack of a recycling culture is a major barrier. When it comes to dealing with waste, the responsibility is not the government’s alone. Citizens must also change their ways. Separating waste at source, avoiding single-use plastics, and properly disposing garbage should be social norms. Governance is a work in progress. Despite rules, most cities lack the planning, infrastructure and enforcement to manage waste. Punjab has seen some initiative, with a 42-acre landfill in Lahore now being transformed into a solar park and urban forest. In KP, waste management is often outsourced to private operators with minimal regulatory oversight. Balochistan lags far behind with limited coverage and negligible recycling efforts.

Sindh’s recent move to impose a blanket ban on all types of plastic bags is commendable — if enforced. Its 2019 restrictions were riddled with loopholes and poor implementation. For the new policy to succeed, dedicated waste zones and daily door-to-door trash collection is essential. The ban must be backed by enforcement: fines, seizure of goods, and closure of businesses flouting the law. The federal government must do more than draft policy papers. It must coordinate across provinces to create a national waste strategy with targets for recycling, reduction and enforcement. Funding must be linked to compliance, not mere intent. The WB report highlights the steep cost of inaction: clogged drains, urban flooding, disease and soaring methane emissions. For Pakistan, already among the most climate-vulnerable countries, unmanaged waste is not just an eyesore, it is also a threat multiplier. It is time to clean up our act. Everyone has a role to play, and every bag, bottle and banana peel counts.

Published in Dawn, May 7th, 2025

Put peace first

Mahir Ali 

Published May 7, 2025 
DAWN

    

EIGHTY years after Germany’s Third Reich formally accepted defeat, the enduring reluctance on all sides to draw lessons from the causes and consequences of World War II has sparked fears of history repeating itself.

Echoes of the 1930s have been rumbling for several years, amid growing popular support across Europe for Nazi-adjacent political forces that thrive on ethno-nationalism and xenophobia. The Russia-Ukraine war is the largest conflict the continent has endured since May 1945. And the slogan ‘never again!’, widely voiced in the aftermath of the unspeakable Holocaust, rings hollow amid Israel’s genocidal campaign against its designated Untermenschen, the Palestinians.

Vladimir Putin’s onslaught against Ukraine in February 2022 appears to have been based on the assumption that Kyiv would fall within days. It is reminiscent of Adolf Hitler’s confidence in June 1941 that the Wehrmacht would overrun Moscow within weeks. In both cases, formidable resistance thwarted the aggressors’ designs. The Nazis were able to capture vast swathes of Soviet territory and advance to within a few kilometres of Moscow partly because Josef Stalin was confident the Germans wouldn’t attack until they had conquered Britain, ignoring Soviet intelligence indicating that the Nazis had abandoned their plan to occupy the UK and were paused for a massive assault against the USSR.

It was hardly a secret that Hitler and his cohorts saw ‘Bolsheviks’ as their primary foe; communists and socialists were among the first to be incarcerated in concentration camps — later ‘upgraded’ to extermination factories populated mainly by Jews alongside Roma, homosexuals and other ‘undesirables’. The Führer, who admired the American version of racial apartheid, might not have been surprised to find that a sizeable proportion of the ruling class in the US sympathised with his antisemitic and anti-communist tendencies.

There is no such thing as a great war.

The former was manifested in the US reluctance to accept Jewish refugees during the 1930s-40s, and in racist jibes thereafter; today’s weaponised antisemitism is intended to silence critics of a fascistic Israel or Zionism, rather than to safeguard Jews. The latter was coalescing into the Cold War even before Hitler was defeated, and helped spawn the curse of McCarthyism, which has endured in various forms. Donald Trump’s tendency to label anyone who disagrees with him as ‘far left’, ‘Marxist’ or ‘communist’ presumably owes much to his ideological tutoring as an impressionable younger man by his vile lawyer Roy Cohn who was once a chief counsel to the obnoxious senator Joe McCarthy.

Trump has recast tomorrow’s Victory in Europe (V-E) Day as Victory Day for World War II, perhaps unaware that for the US the war continued for another three months and concluded only after the gratuitous experiments with atomic bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. American forces did indeed belatedly play a key role in defeating the Nazi regime, after which a number of Hitler’s enablers, some of whom had been engaged by the CIA as anti-communist agents, were welcomed to the US as refugees. Many others found their way to exile in Latin America.

Back in the 1940s, Stalin realised after initial setbacks that it was best to leave battlefield decisions to his generals, while Hitler continued to micromanage military strategy. Moscow’s pleas for a second front to the west of Germany went unheeded for a long time; D-Day in 1944 was a game-changer. It was at least partly motivated by the fear that the Red Army, by then steadily pushing back against the Wehrmacht with the help of partisans, might overrun Europe.

The postwar arrangement left much of Eastern Europe in the Soviet grip, while the rest (albeit not uniformly) owed allegiance to the US. Some 100,000 American troops continue to be based across Europe, mainly in Germany, alongside nuclear weapons — even as European populations have begun to view Trump as the biggest threat to their security and stability. Fear of Putin, meanwhile, has unleashed a rearmament drive. Both Trump and Putin gaze upon the far right political forces in Europe with varying degrees of admiration.

In the category of lessons unlearnt, though, perhaps the ugliest contender is the indulgent attitude of all too many European governments towards the Nazi copycats in Israel as they pursue a policy of extermination. Besides, shouldn’t their support for Ukraine be focused on seeking avenues for peace instead of prolonging the war? Likewise, the unmatched Soviet sacrifices that won WW2 ought to have reminded Putin that aggression never pays.

The few remaining veterans and Holocaust survivors probably won’t be around for future anniversaries of V-E Day, but most would probably agree that all commemorations ought to avoid displays of martial supremacy and instead be dedicated to emphasising the virtues of peace.

mahir.dawn@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, May 7th, 2025

Conservative Merz elected German chancellor after initial debacle

Reuters 

Published May 6, 2025 

Incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz receives his certificate of appointment from German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier during a ceremony at Bellevue Palace in Berlin, Germany, May 6. — Reuters

German conservative leader Friedrich Merz was elected chancellor by parliament on Tuesday in a second round of voting after a humiliating and unprecedented defeat on the first attempt, getting his coalition government off to a weak start.

Merz, 69, who led his conservatives to a federal election victory in February and has signed a coalition deal with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), won 325 votes, nine more than needed for an absolute majority, in the secret ballot.

He had secured just 310 votes in the first round of voting, meaning at least 18 coalition lawmakers failed to back him.

After the vote, he headed to the nearby Bellevue Palace to be formally nominated by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Later, he will return to the historic Reichstag building in the heart of Berlin to take the oath of office to become Germany’s 10th chancellor since the end of World War Two.

Merz is under heavy pressure to show German leadership after the implosion last November of outgoing SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way coalition left a political vacuum at the heart of Europe, even as it faced a myriad of crises.

“People have been asking Germany to lead for a long time, and there is no more space to not heed that call,” said Sudha David-Wilp of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

“Everything that had been undergirding post-war Germany in the past eight decades is no longer the case, whether it be open markets and free trade, whether it be the US security presence in Europe.”

A global trade war sparked by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping import tariffs is threatening a third year of downturn in Europe’s largest economy, which has already had to grapple with the end of cheap Russian gas since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and growing rivalry from China.

Meanwhile, Trump has threatened not to come to the aid of the Nato alliance, prompting even transatlanticist Merz to question the reliability of the US as a top security ally and urge Europe to improve its ability to defend itself.

The German coalition deal has mapped out plans to revive growth, such as reducing a corporate tax and lowering energy prices. It also vows strong support for Ukraine and higher military spending.
Embarrassing start

But Merz’s failure to win backing for his chancellorship at the first attempt is a first for post-war Germany and an embarrassment for a man who has promised to restore German leadership on the world stage.

“The whole of Europe looked to Berlin today in the hope that Germany would reassert itself as an anchor of stability and a pro-European powerhouse,” said Jana Puglierin, head of the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank.

“That hope has been dashed. With consequences way beyond our borders.”

Party insiders said on Monday he would swiftly secure a majority despite grumbling in both coalition parties about cabinet nominations, policy compromises and a huge borrowing package pushed through the old parliament in its final days.

“This shows that the coalition is not united, which could weaken his ability to pursue policies,” said Holger Schmieding, Chief Economist at Berenberg in London.

The only winner of Tuesday’s debacle is the far-right, anti-establishment Alternative for Germany, which came second in February and has topped some recent surveys, said Forsa pollster Manfred Guellner.

“Trust in political institutions is being further damaged,” he said.

The two coalition parties have lost support since their already dismal performances in February, especially the conservatives, due in part to frustration with Merz’s decision to loosen borrowing limits, despite campaign promises of fiscal rectitude.

“The failed vote is clearly a sign that not everyone in the CDU agrees with the fiscal U-turn,” said Carsten Brzeski, Global Head of Macro at ING Research.

The abrasive and erratic style of Merz, who has never held government office, has also failed to convince some that he is chancellor material.

“The relationship between the parties will be severely damaged because of this and [it will] exacerbate the conflicts that are already bubbling beneath the surface,” said Philipp Koeker, political scientist at the University of Hanover.

Weaponisation of media

Zahid Hussain 

Published May 7, 2025 

DAWN

MEDIA jingoism is not new. But the spectacle of news and talk show anchors frothing at the mouth as they call for a war against Pakistan, following the Pahalgam terrorist attack, verges on psychosis. There appears to be no space for saner voices amid the beat of war drums. With the rise of media warriors, the basic tenets of objective journalism have long been lost. The campaign for the annihilation of another country and deliberate killing of an entire population is sickening.

Interestingly, the Indian electronic media — with a few exceptions — turned hysterical minutes after the terrorist attack on the popular tourist spot in occupied Kashmir. Without waiting for an investigation, the media, most of it controlled by big business groups linked to the right-wing Hindu nationalist ruling party, started to point fingers across the border. Some of them even laid out their own war plan much before the Indian government announced a series of punitive actions against Pakistan.

A section of the Pakistani media, too, is not without a xenophobic approach. Religion is also often misused to whip up bigotry in this country. Yet the madness witnessed on the Indian media has no precedent. TV channels spewing hate and demanding retribution against a rival country, without substantiating its culpability, have crossed all limits of rationality and objectivity.

Such frenzy cannot be separated from the prevailing political environment in India. The jingoism witnessed on the Indian media is a manifestation of the rising nationalist militancy and hegemonic approach in that country. Even mainstream journalists and media organisations are used as weapons of war.

The growing importance of the media and information in modern conflicts and disputes has led some to observe that a large part of conflict is driven by the media, which creates a national psyche that allows the ruling elite to mobilise mass sentiments.

A widely accepted definition of objective journalism is the “detached and unprejudiced gathering and dissemination of news and information”. Maintaining such objectivity can lead people to reach their own conclusions about an event, without being influenced by subjective views. Indeed, media persons should present the facts as they are whether they agree with them or not.

But the question is whether such objectivity is possible given the complex world in which we are living today. Unfortunately, the media is not free of prejudices and is often dictated by status quo powers and the national and security interests of their respective countries.

This is also true for Western democratic countries that claim to uphold freedom of expression and democratic values. There is certainly much more freedom enjoyed by the media in the West. But there is no true sense of objectivity when it comes to national security issues. In fact, there have been many instances when unverified reports in reputable mainstream publications have been used to justify military action against other countries.

I have worked with several international publications including The Times (London), the Wall Street Journal and Newsweek, covering Pakistan and Afghanistan for almost three decades. There is no denying that I enjoyed complete freedom in the regular reporting of events. But there were certainly some restrictions on issues considered ‘sensitive’ with regard to ‘national security and foreign policy matters’.

Sometimes, parts of my story would be cut out. One such instance occurred when I filed a report for the WSJ mentioning that Raymond Davis, who was arrested in Lahore in 2011, was an undercover CIA operative. That part of the story was removed. It happened twice before some British papers exposed Davis’s identity — one of these reports was mine and published in The Times.

It was then that the WSJ finally acknowledged that he was an undercover agent. When I asked my editor why that bit of the story had been initially removed, he said the paper had received advice from top US officials not to report Davis’s real identity. In fact, Washington never publicly acknowledged the real identity of the detained American who was later allowed to leave the country after a deal was struck between the US and Pakistan.


The Indian media’s frenzy cannot be separated from the country’s political climate.

There are many instances when mainstream publications carried unsubstantiated stories fed by vested interests to serve as the basis for starting a war. In the early 2000s, the New York Times (NYT) published detailed reports by Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Judith Miller on Iraq possessing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). These reports were used to emphasise the threat and provide justification for America to invade Iraq. The paper fully supported the war that by some estimates killed over a million people and destroyed Iraq.

But in 2004, the NYT itself acknowledged that much of its WMD reporting had been based on questionable intelligence. In an extraordinary statement, arguably the world’s most influential paper admitted that it had been misled by sources, including the controversial Iraqi leader Ahmad Chalabi who lived in exile in America for many years. It admitted that “accounts of biological, chemical and nuclear weapons in Iraq were never independently verified”. In a note to readers published under the headline ‘The Times and Iraq’, the editors admitted that there had been a “a number of instances of coverage that was not as rigorous as it should have been”, and indicated that they had accepted the claims of “United States officials convinced of the need to intervene in Iraq”.

The NYT was not the only mainstream American publication that supported the invasion of Iraq on false grounds. The then editor of Newsweek, Fareed Zakaria, backed the 2003 invasion of Iraq. “The place is so dysfunctional,” he said, “any stirring of the pot is good.” In 2017, Zakaria supported President Donald Trump’s strike against Syria saying, it was the moment he “became president of the United States”.

While appearing extremely crude in its war cry, the Indian electronic media too has been weaponised to serve its country’s hegemonic designs. There is also a lesson here for our media.

The writer is an author and journalist.

zhussain100@yahoo.com

X: @hidhussain

Published in Dawn, May 7th, 2025

WWIII: TWO NUCLEAR POWERS CLASH

WWIII

‘Escalation risks are real’: Analysts, diplomats react to latest Pakistan-India clashes

Dawn.com 

Published May 7, 2025 

Analysts and diplomats on Wednesday raised concerns over “increased risks of escalation” after India launched late-night airstrikes at six sites in Pakistan’s Punjab and Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

The attack resulted in 26 civilian casualties and over 40 injuries. In retaliation, Islamabad took down five Indian jets. According to military spokesperson Lt Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, several Indian checkposts were destroyed in response. Separately, the government said Pakistan did not target any civilians in India in its retaliatory actions.

Amid the ongoing developments, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called a meeting of the country’s apex security body and is expected to address the nation afterwards.

Here is what journalists and analysts are saying about the recent updates and what they are predicting for the future.

Mazhar Abbas, senior analyst

“The day, May 7, is a hopeful one for Pakistan because we defeated India not only on the battlefield but also on the diplomatic front,” he said on Geo TV.

“India ran a film, we ran a trailer, if they want to move forward with war, we are ready,” he stated. Referring to last month’s Pahalgam attack, the journalist said India was yet to produce evidence regarding Pakistan’s involvement in it.

“Without doing that, they tried to go on another adventure. Pakistan has defeated them on three fronts: war, media, and diplomacy. If we keep going forward with this coordinated effort, we will be successful,” Abbas said.

Michael Kugelman, foreign policy expert

“India’s strike on Pakistan is of much greater scale than the one in 2019. Pakistan’s response, which, according to many reports, included downing several Indian jets, has also exceeded the scale of 2019,” he said in a post on X.

“They’re already higher up the escalatory ladder than any time in the ’19 crisis,” Kugelman said.

Separately, speaking to the Associated Press, he said: “These two strong militaries that, even without nuclear weapons as a deterrent, are not afraid to deploy … conventional military force against each other.”

“Escalation risks are real. And they could well increase, and quickly,” he warned.
Jibran Nasir, activist and lawyer

“India, acting like a rogue state, has violated multiple international humanitarian laws by targeting civilians and mosques,” Nasir said in a post on X. “Without providing any evidence of Pakistan’s involvement in Pahalgam, the Modi government has resorted to war crimes violating Provisions of the Geneva Convention IV 1949, Geneva Protocol 1977 Article 51-53, Hague Convention IV 1907 Article 25 & 27, Hague Convention 1954, Rome Statue of the ICC 1998 Article 8 and Customary IHL as codified by ICRC.”

He pointed out that Pakistan’s response to India, which included striking down jets and bombing military sites, was “measured” and asserted its right to self-defence.

“The Indian Democracy led by Hindutva on steroids wants to celebrate bombing of civilians, killing and maiming children and make mass rape threats to women online. Naming the operation Sindoor only underpins the toxicity, chauvinism and racism of the Indian regime towards Muslims both at home and vis-à-vis its neighbouring countries,” Nasir said.

“Hope no more blood is shed and the global community steps in and forces sense into India and holds it accountable for the war crimes it committed tonight. India must answer and pay the price for every single loss of civilian life and every house of worship it targeted.

“Till then, Pakistan shall defend itself by whatever means possible and every Pakistani stands united for its sovereignty and integrity,” he added.
Hina Rabbani Khar, diplomat

In a series of posts on X, Khar, who previously served as the state minister for foreign affairs, said India’s multiple attacks inside Pakistan showed that “India feels it has impunity to do what it will without any consideration to international law”.

“Pakistan has not only the right but also the capacity to respond to this belligerent, rogue neighbour as it is doing now,” she stated.

Hamid Mir, senior journalist

“It seems that [Indian prime minister] Modi’s strategy has backfired,” he said on the channel. “India claims it attacked terrorist sites in Pakistan, but there are videos everywhere showing they it was the civilians who were attacked.”

“The entire world agrees; Pakistan did not start this. India targeted Pakistan’s civilians, and Pakistan attacked their military targets. Morally, Pakistan is in a better situation,” he highlighted.

Mir was also of the opinion that Islamabad should suspend the Simla Agreement as a tit-for-tat response to India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty after the Pahalgam incident.

Global community reacts to Indian strikes in Pakistan

Reuters | AFP 

Published May 7, 2025 

India said it attacked Pakistan early on Wednesday following a deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir last month. Pakistan reported eight deaths and said it had responded to the Indian strikes.

This is what global leaders have said about the latest hostilities between the nuclear-armed neighbours:

Chinese foreign ministry

“India and Pakistan are neighbours that cannot be moved apart, and they are also China’s neighbours,” a foreign ministry spokesperson said in a statement.

“We call on both India and Pakistan to prioritise peace and stability, remain calm and restrained and avoid taking actions that further complicate the situation,” the spokesperson added.

Beijing also offered to play a mediating role in reducing tensions.

“We are willing to work together with the international community and continue to play a constructive role in easing the current tensions,” foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said.

UK Trade Secretary Jonathon Reynolds

The UK is ready to support both India and Pakistan to de-escalate tensions, Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said.

“Our message would be that we are a friend, [and] a partner to both countries. We stand ready to support both countries. Both have a huge interest in regional stability, in dialogue, in de-escalation and anything we can do to support that, we are here and willing to do,” he told BBC radio.

Russian foreign ministry

Russia’s foreign ministry in a statement said it was “deeply concerned by the escalation of military confrontation,” and called on the parties to “exercise restraint to prevent further deterioration.”

The foreign ministry hoped the tensions could be “resolved through peaceful, diplomatic means.”

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi

“In regard to the terrorist act that occurred in Kashmir on April 22, our country firmly condemns such acts of terrorism. Furthermore, we express strong concern that this situation may lead to further retaliatory exchanges and escalate into a full-scale military conflict. For the peace and stability of South Asia, we strongly urge both India and Pakistan to exercise restraint and stabilise the situation through dialogue.”
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot

France also called on India and Pakistan to show restraint.

“We understand India’s desire to protect itself against the scourge of terrorism, but we obviously call on both India and Pakistan to exercise restraint to avoid escalation and, of course, to protect civilians,” Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, said in an interview on TF1 television.

“I don’t think anyone has an interest in a lasting confrontation between India and Pakistan,” he said, adding that he would be speaking with his counterparts in India and Pakistan.

Earlier today, US President Donald Trump expressed disappointment over the incident, calling it a “shame”, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hoped for engagement towards a peaceful resolution. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres urged both countries to exercise “maximum military restraint”.

In pictures: Aftermath of India’s late-night strikes in Pakistan

People gather around wreckage in the aftermath of late-night strikes launched by India.

Dawn.com

Published May 7, 2025 

The Pakistani military has brought down five Indian jets in retaliation for late-night strikes launched by its neighbouring country at six sites, including in Punjab’s Sialkot and Bahawalpur, as well as Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

Soon after the reports of military confrontation emerged, the Inter-Services Public Relations confirmed the strikes, saying that India had carried out the attacks from within its airspace. The military spokesperson provided an updated damage assessment of the scenario earlier today, reporting the death of 26 civilians and injuries to 46 others.

A damaged portion of Bilal Mosque is seen after it was hit by an Indian strike in Muzaffarabad on May 7. — Reuters

People look at the damaged building of the Government Health and Educational complex after Indian strikes in Muridke on May 7. — AFP

Security personnel walk on a road near the site of a damaged building of the Government Health and Educational complex after Indian strikes in Muridke on May 7. — AFP

A damaged building of the Government Health and Educational complex is seen after Indian strikes in Muridke on May 7. — AFP

Passengers wait outside at Jinnah International airport after all domestic and international flights were cancelled in Karachi on May 7. — AFP

Passengers wait at Jinnah International airport after all domestic and international flights were cancelled in Karachi on May 7. — AFP

Passengers wait outside at Jinnah International airport after all domestic and international flights were cancelled in Karachi on May 7. — AFP

A media person films Bilal Mosque after it was hit by an Indian strike in Muzaffarabad on May 7. — Reuters

Soldiers cordon off a road after Indian strikes at Ahmedpur Sharqia, some seven kilometres from Bahawalpur on May 7. — AFP

Security force personnel stand guard in front of Bilal Mosque after it was hit by an Indian strike in Muzaffarabad, on May 7. — Reuters

Security personnel cordon-off a street near the site of a strike in Muzaffarabad, on May 7. — AFP

Students in Hyderabad protest against Indian attacks, May 7. — Photo by Umair Ali Rajput

HINDUTVA WATER WAR

PAKISTAN

35 days’ water left as Khanpur Dam level plummets

Amjad Iqbal 

Published May 7, 2025 

DAWN

View of the dried-up Khanpur Dam. — Dawn


TAXILA: A water crisis looms over the twin cities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad as the water level has decreased in Khanpur Dam and the available water may cater to the needs of its beneficiaries for only 35 days.

Rocks and mounds have become visible in different parts of the reservoir, especially at the main storage site and the spillways, which speaks volume about the impacts of climatic changes and alarming water table reduction. If heavy rainfall does not occur within the next 10 to 15 days, the water level in the dam is expected to fall drastically to almost the dead level.


The authorities said the catchment area of the dam, which included Margalla Hills and Galiyat, had not received enough rain, worsening the situation.

The dam authorities feared that they would have to suspend water supply for irrigation purposes to the provinces of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa besides curtailing drinking water supply to Rawalpindi and Islamabad.


Officials say they would have to suspend supply for irrigation purposes besides curtailing drinking water supply to Rawalpindi, Islamabad

They said at present water in the reservoir was available only for about 35 days if there is no rainy spell in its catchment areas.

A Wapda official told Dawn on Tuesday that the water level at the dam was 1,935 above mean sea level (AMSL), which was just 25 feet higher than the dead level of 1,910 AMSL.

He said that due to the low rains in the dam’s catchment areas and persistent dry spell, springs in the catchment areas had dried up. The inflow wasrecorded on Tuesday at only 82 cusecs and the outflow 235 cusecs per day.

He added that 90 cusecs per day was being supplied to Capital Development Authority (CDA) and 6.18 cusecs to other civic bodies and small beneficiaries, including the University of Engineering and Technology Taxila. He said that 48 cusecs per day was also released to the KP irrigation department and 42 cusecs daily to Punjab for irrigation.

He said that due to the persistent situation, authorities had planned to suspend water supply to KP and Punjab for irrigation purposes next week.

On the other hand, Wasa has implemented a “Water Control Plan” to manage the crisis, which includes crackdowns on water theft, penalties for water bill defaulters, and restrictions on non-essential water use. Officials warned that without significant rainfall in the next 10 to 15 days, the water level could fall to critical level, possibly exacerbating the situation.

Wasa sources said that a water rationing plan had been prepared for implementation in the second half of May. Wasa Managing Director Mohammad Saleem Ashraf said the daily water demand in Rawalpindi had reached over 50 million gallons, but the supply stood at just 30 million gallons - creating a significant daily deficit of 20 million gallons.

The dam is situated near Potohar Plateau and the village of Khanpur in KP, about 40km from Islamabad and 15km from Haripur. The dam caters to domestic water supplies in Rawalpindi and Islamabad besides supplying water to the agricultural and industrial areas surrounding the twin cities.

Published in Dawn, May 7th, 2025

‘International pressure’ credited for improvement in Chenab flows

Khalid Hasnain 

Published May 7, 2025 

DAWN


• Inflows at Marala rise to 28,300 cusecs

 • Ex-Indus water commissioner says Delhi’s actions violate IWT, independent expert’s decision on Baglihar

LAHORE: Flows in the River Chenab increased substantially on Tuesday — a day after they slowed to a trickle — after India ostensibly caved to international pressure over its illegal act of stopping river water from flowing to Pakistan.


Following its unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, New Delhi had severely cut flows in the Chenab, which slowed from 34,000 cusecs on Sunday to around 3,000 cusecs on Monday.

The very next day, however, the situation improved, with inflows at Marala recorded at 28,300 cusecs on Tuesday.


“The situation started improving on Tuesday with discharge of water by India from up to downstream. Hope it will improve more in coming days if there is no halt on part of India,” a senior official told Dawn.

According to a report shared by the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority, the inflows and outflows in Chenab at Marala were recorded as 28,300 cusecs and 19,100 cusecs respectively.

The inflows from Indus River at Tarbela were gauged as 95,300 cusecs, whereas the outflows were 50,000 cusecs.

The inflow of 37,000 cusecs was recorded at River Kabul at Nowshera, whereas the River Jhelum at Mangla was gauged as having inflows of 43,500 cusecs and outflows of 32,000 cusecs.

The water level in Tarbela dam, which has a minimum water operating level of 1,402 feet and a maximum conservation capacity of 1,550 feet, is currently at 1,444.30 feet. The live storage in the dam was recorded as 0.902 MAF on Tuesday.

With a current water level of 1,137 feet, Mangla dam recorded 1.235 MAF live storage. The minimum operating level of the dam is 1,050 feet, whereas the maximum conservation capacity is 1,242 feet.

Meanwhile, the Chashma reservoir recorded a live storage of 0.208 MAF with a current water level of 646.90 feet. The minimum operating level of the lake is 638.15 feet whereas its maximum conservation level is 649 feet.

International pressure

According to a senior official, who did not wish to be named, the reason behind the release of water a day after India had halting flows in the Chenab seemed to be pressure exer­ted from international quarters.

“All of India’s hydroelectric projects in the Chenab basin are run-of-the-river, which have reservoirs meant for power generation. They cannot hold waters in such reservoirs for more than 36 hours. But releasing water the very next day shows that they have done this after being pressed internationally,” the official explained. “I think India will not repeat this act again,” he hoped.

The official further said the related government departments in Pakistan are also monitoring the rivers’ flows very closely these days.

Talking to Dawn, former Pakis­tan’s Indus Waters Commissioner Syed Jamat Ali Shah termed the halting of flows in Chenab as a breach of the treaty, as well as a violation of the opinion of the neutral expert on Baglihar Dam.

“The neutral expert, in his decision, had termed maintenance of Baglihar dam necessary keeping in view the massive deposition of sand coming along with river water into the dam meant for power generation and not for water storage. However, according to verdict, the sand can only be flushed out when the water flows at Baglihar are recorded at 70,000 cusecs, which usually happens in the monsoon season only,” he explained.

Mr Shah said that such large quantities of water were not available, India apparently first flushed out the silt by opening spillways, and then closed them to start filling the dam.

Published in Dawn, May 7th, 2025

Chenab parched after India reduces flows manifold

Khalid Hasnain | Khaleeq Kiani

Published May 6, 2025 

DAWN

A VIEW of the River Chenab at Zero Point, near Sialkot, where it enters Pakistan. On Monday, the inflow of water reduced by over 91 per cent compared to the previous day, after India started filling three of its reservoirs on the waterway.—Dawn

• Pakistan’s waters being used to fill up three Indian reservoirs with total capacity of 1.2MAF; official says sudden discharge could create a ‘flood-like’ situation
• Decreased inflows at Marala will result in more water shortage for crops, Irsa warns
• Reuters report claims New Delhi plans to boost reservoir holding capacity at two hydroelectric projects

NEARLY a week after its unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, India on Monday virtually stopped water discharges from the Chenab River into Pakistan without prior notice, reducing flows in the river manifold.

Water flows in the Chenab, recorded at the Marala headworks, decreased from up to 35,000 cusecs on Sunday to about 3,100 cusecs on Monday morning.

“They have almost blocked the River Chenab flows to downstream (Pakistan) after they (Ind­ian authorities) took the dec­ision on Sunday,” a senior official of the Punjab irrigation department confirmed on Monday.

“Currently, they are using our water to fill up their dams/hydropower projects in the Chenab basin. They cannot do this since it is a grave violation of the Indus Water Treaty…,” the official deplored.

According to a document seen by Dawn, India has three major hydropower projects in the Chenab Basin. The first is the 1,000MW Pakal Dul Dam, having an 88,000 acre-feet reservoir storage capacity and a 10km head race tunnel to divert water south.

The second is the Baglihar Dam (88km from Pakal Dul upstream). This is a 900MW power generation plant, having a 321,002 acre-feet reservoir storage along with a spillway capacity of 582,692 cusecs.

The third one is Salal Dam, located 78km from Baglihar, having an installed power generation capacity of 690MW along with 228,000 acre-feet reservoir storage and spillway capacity of 792,012 cusecs.

“From Salal Dam, Marala Barrage (in Pakistan) is situated 76km away. The reason behind the massive reduction in the flows is the filling of these dams, which have a total storage capacity of over 1.2 million acre-feet. And if they keep filling their dams and avert discharging, they (India) may leave us without water for four to five days more,” the official warned.

To a question, he said that if India suddenly started discharging water downstream, there could be a flood-like situation in Chenab, putting the local population at risk.

To another question, he said Marala’s capacity was 1.1 million cusecs, whereas the total storage capacity of India’s dams in the Chenab basin was over 1.3 million acre-feet. “However, they don’t have control over the water inflows to Pakistan in the river from the Jammu-Tavi and Munawar-Tavi distributaries,” the official added.

According to the official, Chenab is very important for Pakistan’s irrigation system, as its canals, including the UCC and BRB canals, irrigate a vast tract of agricultural land in Punjab.

According to the daily water report issued by the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda), the water inflows in Chenab at Marala were recorded at 5,300 cusecs, whereas there were zero outflows on Monday.

The inflows and outflows in the river at Marala on Sunday were 34,600 and 25,400 cusecs, respectively.

Shortage for Kharif crops

Separately, a meeting of the advisory committee of the Indus River System Authority also expressed concerns over the unilateral Indian decision that would cause additional shortages to Kharif crops, already facing an estimated 21pc shortfall.

“…sudden decrease in river Chenab inflows at Marala due to short supply by India would result in more shortages in early Kharif season,” said a statement issued by Irsa. The water regulator declared an overall shortage of 21pc for the remaining early Kharif season in case supplies in River Chenab remained normal. However, the situation would be monitored on a daily basis and if the decrease continues, the shortages would be revisited accordingly, Irsa said, adding the late Kharif shortages were expected to be 7pc.

An official told Dawn that Chenab flowed at 35,600 cusecs on Sunday at Marala headwork, but dropped to 3,177 cusecs on Monday morning, showing a reduction of almost 11 times. He said three storages — Baglihar, Dulhasti and Salal — on Chenab in Kashmir had the capacity to stop river flows.

Sindh’s concerns

Sindh representatives recorded their objections over the operationalisation of Chashma-Jhelum Link Canal by Punjab, but was explained that Punjab was using its own share. Sindh, nevertheless, insisted that the opening of the emergency link canal affected Sindh’s allocated share downstream.

Sindh was also told that its share of 76,000 cusecs was being released, which would reach its canal command areas in five to six days. Punjab’s discharges were reduced from 84,000 cusecs to 65,000 cusecs at its request.

The Irsa meeting worked out Punjab’s water availability estimate at 31.35 million acre feet (MAF) for the entire Kharif season, followed by Sindh’s 28.85MAF. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan would get 0.82MAF and 2.86MAF, respectively, during the season.

Work on Indian dams

Separately, the Reuters news agency reported that India has begun work to boost reservoir holding capacity at two hydroelectric projects.

A “reservoir flushing” process to remove sediment began on Thursday, carried out by India’s biggest hydropower company and authorities in the occupied Kashmir, it reported.

The process initially results in sediment-laden waters being released downstream from the reservoirs, potentially causing sudden inundation, followed by a reduced flow of water as the reservoirs are refilled, one of the unnamed sources cited by Reuters said.

The report said the work may not immediately threaten supply to Pakistan, which depends on rivers flowing through India for much of its irrigation and hydropower, but it could eventually be affected if other dams launch similar efforts. There are more than half a dozen such projects in the region.

“India did not inform Pakistan about the work at the Salal and Baglihar projects, which is being done for the first time since they were built in 1987 and 2008/09, respectively, as the treaty had blocked such work,” Reuters said, quoting sources.

The report said the Indian authorities had also asked officials concerned to open the adjustable gates for cleaning, which they did from May 1. The effort was aimed at freeing dam operations from any restrictions, it added.

Published in Dawn, May 6th, 2025

Fistful of water

Shahzad Sharjeel

Published April 30, 2025

DAWN



JAWAHARLAL Nehru, the first post-independence prime minister of India, while dilating on statecraft, advised ‘muthi ko kasna nahin hai’ (don’t hold the fist tight). He may have been referring to the merits of a soft approach in dealing with myriad internal challenges, including the hundreds of princely states and their status vis-à-vis the centre. How clenched or loose Sardar Patel’s fist was in dealing with these matters is now part of history.

On our side, prime minister Liaquat Ali Khan and, later on, military dictator Pervez Musharraf both employed the punch as a symbol of state power, aimed externally on the part of the former and at internal opponents by the latter.

While we were still trying to figure out the contours of the ‘hard state’ that the establishment asserted Pakistan needs to become in the aftermath of the deplorable attack on the Jaffar Express in Balochistan in March, and while the new canals fiasco was brewing among the upper and lower riparian provinces, the Pahalgam atrocity happened in Indian-occupied Kashmir. Both sides wasted no time accusing each other of orchestrating the terrorist attacks.

In its first salvo of retaliatory actions, India announced holding the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance. “We will pursue the perpetrators to the ends of the earth,” vowed Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The ‘ghus kar marengay’ refrain was dug up by the media a few days later.


We need hydropower experts and legal wizards in international law.

Late to the public outrage against the proposed six canals on the Indus river to irrigate the Cholistan desert in south Punjab, the PPP, the ruling party in Sindh, tried to overcompensate with bravado. Party chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, usually displaying sangfroid, broke character to warn the Indian PM, “either our water or your blood will flow in the Indus”. He was addressing a public gathering near the banks of the river in Sukkur as part of his party’s effort to wrest the canals issue from the smaller parties and rights groups.

The complex interplay between externalities and internal compulsions of statecraft is not unique to Pakistan and India. That a country’s foreign policy is contingent upon its domestic choices and vice versa is well known. The rhetoric in the service of these policies and interests should also be seen in this perspective. Mr Bhutto-Zardari’s warning to Mr Modi aims to assuage his party’s domestic dilemma. President Asif Zardari’s reported assent to the canals project — thought to be the brainchild of the powers that be and the larger province of Punjab — had caused resentment even among the loyal cadres of the PPP. One way to keep on the right side of the state powers while appeasing the local vote bank is to take a hard line against India.

The IWT, which was signed between the two countries in 1960 to apportion the waters of the western and eastern rivers, was brokered by the World Bank. It is an extremely complex and technical treaty. From time to time, demands for renegotiating the IWT have emanated from within Pakistan.

Saner elements cautioned against it because, back in the 1960s, India and Pakistan were treated as equals by the facilitators of the treaty. In succeeding decades, the international standing of the two countries changed; compare their forex reserves, trade volumes, and levels of FDI.

Meanwhile, the World Bank’s role as ‘guarantor’ of the IWT has always been misunderstood. It was al­­ways meant to reduce over time. To renegotiate the treaty, we need hydrology and hy-

dropower exp­e­rts. We stopped producing them decades ago. We also need legal wizards in international law. The lot we have has been losing us cases in international courts; Reko Diq, Turkish power producer Karkey, and a consortium of IPPs’ claims against us, to cite a few. This downward slide is, unfortunately, not limited to us: the World Bank does not appear to have a single legal expert with a complete grasp of the treaty. Ask the lender for a copy of a treaty, and in all likelihood, it will draw a blank.

Returning to the analogy of the fist, in the context of water or any fluid situation, leave it open, making it into an ‘oak’, an untranslatable Urdu word for the hollow of an upward-turned palm to drink, and offer it, and it can be of help even if for a short while. Tighten the fist and one is not even left with chullu bhar pani (a sip or a splash’s worth of water carried in the palm of the hand).

The writer is a poet. His latest publication is a collection of satire essays titled Rindana.

shahzadsharjeel1@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, April 30th, 2025

Pakistan’s children

Zehra Kamal Alam 

Published May 7, 2025

DAWN

THE National Commission on the Rights of the Child recently published its first-ever report of data, challenges and recommendations on the State of Children in Pakistan, 2024.

While the state of child rights remains dismal in Pakistan, this government-owned reflective report is a welcome change from the time when similar reports by civil society would not only be rejected, but at times, actively discouraged from being published as that would bring a bad name to the country.

The real challenge going forward would be for the commission to garner enough support and ownership from the government machinery and relevant departments to put the recommendations into practice in a coordinated manner.

As the government addresses the recommendations that have been given in the report, it would be important to shed light on some aspects of violence that are not only stand-alone issues but which also intersect with children’s experiences of other forms of violence and impact health, education and the overall rights of the child.

The first aspect is related to children’s exposure to violence against women at home and its intersectionality with violent disciplining. In a Unicef briefing note of 2024, available data had indicated that one in four children live with a mother or caregiver who is experiencing intimate partner violence. There is a higher likelihood of these children being impacted in the same way as with direct experiences of violence, and of them also being violently disciplined by adults.

These multiple experiences of violence can negatively impact the birthweight of children, under-five mortality and the mental and social development of a child. It may also make children vulnerable to both adult experiences of violence and to perpetrating violence on others.


Violence can negatively impact children in a number of ways.

The second aspect that needs mention and research is related to the bullying and violence perpetrated by children on other children in schools, at home and in play and work settings — both online and offline. In a Unicef study, 60.1 per cent of children from Grade 5 to Grade 7 reported being bullied by their peers or older children.

In my personal experience of working with schools, bullying — both online and offline — is, unfortunately, common and often goes unrecognised and/ or remains unaddressed. It shows its impact on the students’ mental well-being, academic achievement, absenteeism and behaviour towards other children.

Themes of bullying may arise from the discriminatory and reductive views about girls and women, minority, disability and transgender groups. The false notions of machismo among boys, which is internalised through societal messaging, contributes towards the acceptance of bullying as ‘cool’, ‘manly’, and ‘acceptable’ behaviour. Data given in the commission’s child rights report shows that an overwhelming majority of undertrial or convicted children are males, and their crimes range from theft, drug peddling to rape/ sodomy, unnatural offences and murder.

It is indeed the need of the hour for the commission to steer the child rights agenda and collectively work with the women’s rights, health, social protection, education, legal and livelihood departments as well as the private sector to prioritise, commit and allocate the required resources for addressing these interlinked issues.

For example, all the initiatives that are aimed at addressing violence against women must have a component on viole­nce against children and positive parenting and vice versa; nutrition and health-based programmes need to address the impact of direct and indirect experiences of violence; mental health programmes would need to ad­­d­ress the nexus of po­­verty, violence and psychosocial factors that impact well-being; and school-based and correction facilities/ borstal institutes’ violence prevention programmes for children must have an important component on toxic masculinity, bullying and prejudice.

It is important that these initiatives begin much before children reach the stage of adolescence.

Challenging prejudicial and discriminatory attitudes towards gender, class, disability, religious and gender identities; developing tolerance and acceptance for differences; unpacking harmful notions of ‘family honour’, violence being a family matter; and viewing children as personal property already highlighted in the various sections of the child rights report, would need to be a crosscutting, ongoing theme for all levels of preventive, response and rehabilitative work.

The writer is a mental health professional.

zehrakamal77@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, May 7th, 2025

Climate disasters increasing risks of death, disease amongst children and elderly in Pakistan: Amnesty

New report documents many cases where kids, older adults prematurely lost lives in "often preventable" ways.



Amin Ahmed 

Published May 6, 2025 

DAWN

Pakistan’s healthcare and disaster response systems are failing to meet the needs of children and older people who are most at risk of death and disease amid extreme weather events related to climate change, Amnesty International says in a new report.

Climate change is a pressing reality for Pakistan, directly impacting millions of lives. Ranked as the fifth most vulnerable country to climate change despite contributing just 0.88 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan faces a dire crisis with severe implications.

The report, “Uncounted: Invisible deaths of older people and children during climate disasters in Pakistan”, made available on Tuesday, documents how increasingly frequent floods and heatwaves are overwhelming Pakistan’s underfunded healthcare system, leading to preventable deaths among young children and older adults in particular.

A child is examined at the dengue ward at the Benazir Bhutto Hospital, Rawalpindi. — Sara Farid

Pakistan, which contributes about 1pc of global greenhouse gas emissions annually, is the world’s fifth-most vulnerable country to climate disasters. In collaboration with Indus Hospital & Health Network (IHHN), a charity hospital that provides free healthcare in Pakistan, Amnesty International investigated how spikes in deaths often followed extreme weather events.

The Amnesty report shows how, even at the best of times, Pakistan’s healthcare system fails to meet the needs of its population, particularly very young children and older adults. “Climate disasters compound these existing structural issues, putting children and older people at even greater risk,” it added.

The report documents many cases in which very young children and older adults prematurely lost their lives in ways that were often preventable. Gaps in data collection stymie efforts to address many of these failures.

“Under international human rights law, states are obliged to respect the right to life and the right to health,” it noted. “While Pakistan has made some notable improvements in disaster responses since 2022, it still falls short of protecting these rights for many people, particularly the youngest and oldest, during heatwaves or flooding.”

However, the report says ultimately, Pakistan cannot do this alone; other countries that have historically emitted far more greenhouse gases bear responsibility for the harm they have caused.

“These states must understand that failing to phase out the extraction, production and use of fossil fuels — the primary driver of global warming — threatens the rights to life and health not just of their own populations, but of children and older people all around the world,” the report says.

“Pakistan must do more to improve its healthcare system and emergency responses to confront a changing climate, and the international community must also ensure that the most vulnerable in Pakistan’s society are protected. High-income, high-emitting countries must provide more financial and other support to help everyone in Pakistan adapt to the climate crisis and remediate climate harms,” it recommends.

It added that there is much that Pakistan can do to safeguard the right to life and health of those most affected by climate disasters. It should increase spending on the health sector and ensure that health workers at all levels are trained and equipped to deal with flood and heat-related illness.

A man on a stretcher in during the 2015 heatwave in Karachi. ─ PPI/File

“It should invest more in preventive measures such as cooling centres, and ensure that district disaster management authorities are properly operationalised with funding and human resources to ensure a quicker on-the-ground response during emergencies,” it points out.

“It can also remove requirements such as non-objection certificates for humanitarian organisations, given that these and other bureaucratic hurdles often prevent them from delivering timely aid to those in need.”

The report further recommended that Pakistan can also broaden social protection measures to ensure that they are responsive to climate shocks, including extreme heat.

“The government should introduce a universal social pension for older people in particular, to prevent them from being forced to work in dangerous conditions,” it says.

“Islamabad must know who is the most affected when a flood, heatwave, or other environmental disaster strikes. It can ensure more effective health responses by improving data collection and making it inclusive of all groups.”

According to the report, the government can replicate successes it has had in increasing birth registration by applying similar measures to death registration, including abolishing fees and improving data-sharing between health facilities and other government agencies.

“It can end the near-total exclusion of older people from health data collection, ensuring their inclusion and visibility,” the report adds.

The report notes that despite the disproportionate impact on their lives and health, young children and older people are often not adequately included in climate disaster responses.

“In Pakistan, that is true of children, who make up almost half the population, and it is particularly the case for adults over 60, whose population share is projected to increase from 6.7pc today to 13pc by 2050,” it says.

“While Pakistan has previously received support from international donors to conduct surveys on key child health indicators, such as infant mortality, data collection has largely excluded adults over 50 years old.”

According to the report, there is virtually no information on the health or well-being of older people in the country, and unlike the United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund in the case of children, no international agencies are specifically dedicated to lobbying for the visibility and inclusion of older people.

People retrieve bamboo from a damaged house following rains and floods during the monsoon season in Dera Allah Yar, district Jafferabad, Balochistan, Pakistan on Aug 25. — Reuters

In addition to flooding, 2022 and 2024 were marked by extreme temperatures in Pakistan. In 2022, temperatures reached 50C across much of the country. In 2024, the same occurred. This proved particularly deadly in urban areas like Karachi: there, temperatures reached over 40 centigrade, which when combined with over 70pc humidity created conditions at the limits of human tolerance. While less visible than flooding, heatwaves had a major impact on the health and livelihoods of those affected.

Pakistan’s healthcare system is underfunded and overstretched even in non-emergency times. But when a flood or heatwave strikes, that system comes under even greater strain, and typically fails to deliver adequate care to those in need. According to WHO, 2,000 health facilities in Pakistan — or 13pc of the total — were damaged or destroyed in the 2022 floods.

Flooding and heatwaves merely exacerbated the existing gaps in Pakistan’s healthcare system. According to most benchmarks, countries should spend 5 to 6pc of their GDP or 15pc of their budget on healthcare to ensure universal health coverage. Pakistan in 2021 spent just 1.11pc of its GDP and about 6pc of its budget on health.

This has led to insufficient staffing and beds, and also means there are not enough healthcare facilities, forcing people to travel long distances to access care. Many people in Pakistan also incur significant out-of-pocket healthcare costs. Families who were hit by climate disasters often described paying significant amounts to treat their loved ones, and several people described taking out loans in order to afford care.

Header image: A woman, who became flood victim, takes care of her ailing baby at a hospital, following rains and floods during the monsoon season in Jamshoro, on September 20, 2022. — Reuters

US aid cuts push Bangladesh’s health sector to the edge

Funding cuts threaten to stall work on TB and other prevalent diseases.

AFP 

Published May 6, 2025 

Bangladesh hoped to celebrate progress towards eradicating tuberculosis this year, having already slashed the numbers dying from the preventable and curable disease by tens of thousands each year.

Instead, it is reeling from a $48 million snap aid cut by US President Donald Trump’s government, which health workers say could rapidly unravel years of hard work and cause huge numbers of preventable deaths.

“Doctors told me I was infected with a serious kind of tuberculosis,” labourer Mohammed Parvej, 35, told AFP from his hospital bed after he received life-saving treatment from medics funded by the US aid who identified his persistent hacking cough.

But full treatment for his multidrug-resistant tuberculosis requires more than a year of hospital care and a laborious treatment protocol — and that faces a deeply uncertain future.

“Bangladesh is among the seven most TB-prevalent countries globally, and we aim to eradicate it by 2035,” said Ayesha Akhter, deputy director of the formerly US-funded specialised TB Hospital treating Parvej in the capital Dhaka.

Bangladesh had made significant progress against the infectious bacteria, spread by spitting and sneezing, leaving people exhausted and sometimes coughing blood. TB deaths dropped from more than 81,000 a year in 2010, down to 44,000 in 2023, according to the World Health Organisation, in the country of some 170 million people.

Akhter said the South Asian nation had “been implementing a robust programme”, supported by the US Agency for International Development (USAID). “Then, one fine morning, USAID pulled out their assistance,” she said.
Starving children

More than 80 per cent of humanitarian programmes funded by USAID worldwide have been scrapped.

Tariful Islam Khan said the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh had, with US funding, carried out mass screening “improving TB case detection, particularly among children” from 2020 to 2024. “Thanks to the support of the American people… the project has screened 52 million individuals and diagnosed over 148,000 TB cases, including 18,000 children,” he said.

Funding cuts threatened to stall the work. “This work is critical not only for the health of millions of Bangladeshis, but also for global TB control efforts,” he said.


This photograph taken on April 23, 2025 shows people walking past the 250 Bedded TB Hospital, formerly funded by the US development agency USAID in Dhaka.—AFP

Growing rates of infectious diseases in one nation have a knock-on impact in the region. Cuts hit further than TB alone.

“USAID was everywhere in the health sector,” said Nurjahan Begum, health adviser to the interim government — which is facing a host of challenges after a mass uprising toppled the former regime last year.

US aid was key to funding vaccines combating a host of other diseases, protecting 2.3 million children against diphtheria, measles, polio and tetanus.

“I am particularly worried about the immunisation programme,” Begum said. “If there is a disruption, the success we have achieved in immunisation will be jeopardised.”

Bangladeshi scientists have also developed a special feeding formula for starving children. That too has been stalled. “We had just launched the programme,” Begum said. “Many such initiatives have now halted”.
Pivot to China

US State Department official Audrey M. Happ said that Washington was “committed” to ensuring aid was “aligned with the interests of the United States, and that resources are used as effectively and efficiently as possible”.

Bangladesh, whose economy and key garment industry are eyeing fearfully the end of the 90-day suspension of Trump’s punishing 37pc tariffs, is looking for other supporters.

Some Arab nations had expressed interest in helping fill the gap in Muslim-majority Bangladesh. China, as well as Turkey, may also step into Washington’s shoes, Begum said.

Jobs are gone too, with Dhaka’s Daily Star newspaper estimating that between 30,000 and 40,000 people were laid off after the United States halted funding.

Zinat Ara Afroze, fired along with 54 colleagues from Save the Children, said she worried for those she had dedicated her career to helping. “I have seen how these projects have worked improving the life and livelihoods of underprivileged communities,” she said, citing programmes ranging from food to health, environmental protection to democracy. “A huge number of this population will be in immediate crisis.”
Babies dying

Those with the least have been hit the hardest. Less dollars for aid means more sick and dead among the Rohingya refugees who fled civil war in their home in neighbouring Myanmar into Bangladesh since 2017.

Much of the US aid was delivered through the UN’s WHO and Unicef children’s agency.

WHO official Salma Sultana said aid cuts ramped up risks of “uncontrolled outbreaks” of diseases including cholera in the squalid refugee camps. Faria Selim, from Unicef, said reduced health services would impact the youngest Rohingya the hardest, especially some 160,000 children under five. Hepatitis C, with a prevalence rate of nearly a fifth, “is likely to increase in 2025”, Selim said.

Masaki Watabe, who runs the UN Population Fund in Bangladesh working to improve reproductive and maternal health, said it was “trying its best to continue”. Closed clinics and no pay for midwives meant the risk of babies and mothers dying had shot up. “Reduced donor funding has led to … increasing the risk of preventable maternal and newborn deaths,” he said.

After USAID

A NEOLIBERAL CRITIQUE 

Saeed Ahmed 

Published May 5, 2025

The writer is a former senior adviser of the IMF and has a PhD in economics from the University of Cambridge.


WHEN I started writing my book, The Shady Economics of International Aid, in 2023, I never anticipated that some of the issues I explored would surface so powerfully even before its release in 2025.

On his first day in office in January 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order freezing all USAID and State Depart­ment programmes for 90 days. Subsequently, several statements came directly from President Trump and senior officials citing numerous USAID-funded projects across countries that were labelled as ‘waste’, ‘abuse’, and ‘fraud’. In reference to Pakistan, Congressman Scott Perry alleged that USAID spent $840 million on education-related programmes in the last 20 years, including $136m to build 120 schools. He stated that there is zero evidence any single school was actually built. These revelations are startling and need to be substantiated.

Prima facie, the Trump administration’s allegations and its frustration with USAID seem plausible. The ‘insane’ priorities in some countries, including the multimillion-dollar funding for LGBT advocacy, sex changes, and media organisations, do not align with the professed objectives of international aid; ie, poverty alleviation or bro­ad­­er economic development.

 The decision, however, impacted activities worldwide totalling about $42 billion in 157 countries for over 6,100 activities covering all sectors. Those directly affected, particularly more than 10,000 USAID staff working all over the world, strongly criticised the decision. Six weeks into its suspension, Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared they were cancelling 83 per cent of USAID programmes. The surviving approximately 1,000 programmes will now be administered under the Department of State.

We don’t know how events will ultimately unfold in the US as legal battles are still ongoing. However, as things stand, the USAID has been dismantled and US aid to developing countries will be reduced substantially. The US isn’t the first country to shut down its international aid agency. In June 2020, Boris Johnson, the UK’s then prime minister, used budget-tightening as a ground to effectively close the DFID — Britain’s equivalent of USAID — and merged it with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.

Following the USAID fiasco, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced the UK would increase spending on defence by cutting its aid budget from 0.5pc of gross national income to 0.3pc, much lower than the UN’s 0.7pc aid target. The UK aid budget is now at its lowest in decades. The UK is not alone — France and Germany have also cut aid budgets in recent years.


The demise of USAID could present developing nations with an opportunity to reduce aid dependency.

For recipient countries, these disruptions are unlikely to have any major sociopolitical or economic consequences. For instance, Pakistan will not experience a significant financial squeeze. In 2023, USAID committed only $132.6m across various sectors. This funding was reduced to $116m in 2024, primarily due to a decline in humanitarian assistance. These funding levels are negligible relative to the size of Pakistan’s $375bn economy. The same holds true for most African countries, where USAID’s spending is minimal. Nevertheless, the aid that actually reaches intended beneficiaries is only a small fraction of overall disbursement figures.

So, will these aid cuts have any significant impact on the developing countries’ overall economic growth? Research studies provide little convincing evidence of a positive relationship between economic growth and the volume of aid received. However, the situation could potentially change if the US also withdraws from the IMF, World Bank, and other multilateral development banks. Such decisions seem unlikely; however, if taken, they would be bad for the US. By abandoning the IMF and the World Bank, the US would surrender a key source of global influence and economic leverage.

The US has long maintained tight control over these institutions, shaping their policies and leadership to align with its own national interests. It has consistently appointed the World Bank’s president, approved Europe’s choice to lead the IMF, and selected the Fund’s first deputy managing director. Moreover, it remains the only country with the power to unilaterally block major decisions, as both institutions require an 85pc majority for approval.

The US also uses IMF as a ‘first responder’ to safeguard its economy and uses the World Bank to strengthen security and economic alliances and support postwar reconstruction in countries like Iraq and Afghanistan. Even so, the actual cost of US participation in these institutions is far lower than often assumed. Each year, the US Treasury assesses the financial impact of its contributions to the IMF; in 2023, it reported an unrealised gain of $407m.

Even if the US pulls out from the multilateral organisations, other countries will save the multilateral system. They may be alarmed, but they are not powerless. In doing so, however, the US would forfeit vital tools for supporting its allies and withholding financing from its adversaries.

Also, Western countries’ retreat from aid will leave an obvious opening for other powers to inc­rease influence in developing nations. China continues to signal investment commitments in Afri­­ca. At the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Coope­ra­tion, it pledged $51bn over three years in loans and traditional aid. The Gulf states are also incr­easing aid, largely in strategically important regions.

In principle, the demise of 63-year-old USAID, while difficult for many people, could present developing nations with an opportunity to reduce aid dependency and achieve sustainable economic growth. Sometimes good things can come from adversity. Over time, as the system stabilises, donor agencies may become more accountable to the taxpayers who fund them.

Clearly, international aid is a broken system desperately in need of fundamental reforms, both within donor agencies and recipient nations. The mismanagement of aid is pervasive and extends be­­­yond USAID. Donor agencies — funded by taxpayer dollars — are fraught with issues ranging from resource misallocation and misutilisation to a glaring lack of accountability for failed prog­r­a­m­mes. The USAID review has also exposed the high-handed culture prevalent within donor agencies, and should prompt other countries to scrutinise the operations of their own aid organisations.


dr.saeedahmed1@hotmail.com

Published in Dawn, May 5th, 2025