Wednesday, December 24, 2025

 SPACE/COSMOS

 

Russia dismisses alien ship theory as interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS departs solar system

Russia dismisses alien ship theory as interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS departs solar system
Russia dismisses alien ship theory as interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS departs solar system. / bne IntelliNews
By bnm Gulf bureau December 24, 2025

An interstellar comet that sparked speculation about extraterrestrial visitors has departed the solar system after making its closest approach to Earth at 270 million kilometres on December 19, with Russian scientists dismissing claims the object could be an alien spacecraft, RIA Novosti reported on December 24.

The object designated 3I/ATLAS was discovered on July 1, 2025, by a Chilean telescope operated by NASA's Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System. Its high velocity, exceeding 50 kilometres per second, and unusual trajectory identified it as interstellar.

Harvard University astronomer Abi Loeb published an article suggesting the cosmic object could have technological origins with a crew inside, claiming aliens might be hostile and planning to approach Earth covertly from the direction of the Sun. "The consequences could be catastrophic for humanity," Loeb stated in his blog, provoking media sensation.

Natan Eismont, lead researcher at Russia's Space Research Institute, stated nothing surprising occurred in the comet's behaviour.

"Of course it has peculiarities, such as increased carbon dioxide content. Otherwise there are no miracles, everything within known physics. Changes in velocity can be related to gas and dust emissions, which is typical for comets," Eismont stated.

The researcher noted that controversy raised by Loeb proved beneficial by attracting public attention to science and potentially increasing funding for planetary defence programmes. Observation capabilities are growing, raising chances of detecting genuinely dangerous objects in time, Eismont stated. "I think Loeb understands perfectly well that everything he says is fiction," the researcher noted.

Loeb's article, published on a preprint site, contains an important caveat describing the work as "primarily a pedagogical exercise".

The comet's coma measures approximately 24 kilometres in diameter. Its trajectory suggested it arrived from the thick disc of the Milky Way galaxy, estimated at seven billion years old, rather than the younger thin disc containing the 4.5 bn-year-old solar system.

NASA scientists believe the object could have originated in an ancient planetary system predating our own.

3I/ATLAS became the third known visitor from another star system in eight years. The Pan-STARRS telescope detected cigar-shaped asteroid 1I/Oumuamua in 2017, whilst Crimean amateur astronomer Gennady Borisov spotted the first interstellar comet 2I/Borisov in 2019.

Eismont stated such discoveries will increase in coming years as telescope capabilities improve sharply. Interstellar objects visited the solar system previously but could not be registered, whilst visits from other galaxies are possible though far rarer.

Stardust study resets how life’s atoms spread through space




Chalmers University of Technology

Starlight around the star R Doradus 

image: 

Dust clouds reflect starlight around the star R Doradus. As it nears the end of its life, the star is shedding its outer layers, forming clouds of gas and dust around it (shown here in pink and yellow). Scientists have long believed that starlight illuminating these clouds could power a stellar wind. But the colour of the light around the star reflected by dust, , shows that the dust grains are too small to explain the star’s wind. The image was taken in polarised visible light with VLT/SPHERE. In the centre in yellow and orange, we see ALMA’s image showing the surface of the star.

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Credit: ESO/T. Schirmer/T. Khouri; ALMA (ESO/NAOJ/NRAO)




Starlight and stardust are not enough to drive the powerful winds of giant stars, transporting the building blocks of life through our galaxy. That’s the conclusion of a new study from Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden, of red giant star R Doradus. The result overturns a long-held idea about how the atoms needed for life are spread.

“We thought we had a good idea of how the process worked. It turns out we were wrong. For us as scientists, that’s the most exciting result”, says Theo Khouri, astronomer at Chalmers and joint leader of the study.

To understand the origins of life on Earth, it’s important for astronomers to understand how giant stars power their winds. For decades, scientists have believed that winds from red giant stars — which seed the galaxy with carbon, oxygen, nitrogen and other elements essential for life — are powered when starlight pushes against grains of newly formed dust. The new observations of R Doradus challenge this picture.

Red giant stars are the older, cooler cousins of the Sun. As they age, they lose large amounts of material through stellar winds, enriching the space between stars with the raw ingredients for future planets and life. Despite their importance, the physical mechanism driving these winds has remained uncertain.

Astronomers studying the nearby red giant star R Doradus have found that the tiny grains of stardust surrounding the star are too small to be pushed outward by starlight strongly enough to escape into interstellar space.

The study, led by researchers at Chalmers University of Technology, is published in the scientific journal Astronomy & Astrophysics.

“Using the world’s best telescopes, we can now make detailed observations of the closest giant stars. R Doradus is a favourite target of ours – it’s bright, nearby, and typical of the most common type of red giant”, says Theo Khouri. “

The team observed R Doradus using the Sphere instrument on ESO’s Very Large Telescope, measuring light reflected by dust grains in a region roughly the size of our Solar System. By analysing polarised light at different wavelengths, the researchers determined the size and composition of the grains, finding them consistent with common forms of stardust such as silicates and alumina.

The observations were then combined with advanced computer simulations that model how starlight interacts with dust.

“For the first time, we were able to carry out stringent tests of whether these dust grains can feel a strong enough push from the star’s light”, says Thiébaut Schirmer.

The push of starlight is not enough, the team was surprised to find. The grains surrounding R Doradus are typically only about one ten-thousandth of a millimetre across — far too small for starlight alone to drive the star’s wind into space.

“Dust is definitely present, and it is illuminated by the star,” says Thiébaut Schirmer. “But it simply doesn’t provide enough force to explain what we see.”

The findings point to other, more complex processes playing a major role. The team has previously used the ALMA telescope to capture images of enormous bubbles rising and falling on the surface of R Doradus.

“Even though the simplest explanation doesn’t work, there are exciting alternatives to explore,” says Wouter Vlemmings, professor at Chalmers and co-author of the study. “Giant convective bubbles, stellar pulsations, or dramatic episodes of dust formation could all help explain how these winds are launched.”

More about the research

The study, “An empirical view of the extended atmosphere and inner envelope of the asymptotic giant branch star R Doradus II. Constraining the dust properties with radiative transfer modelling”, is published in Astronomy & Astrophysics.

The research was carried out as part of the cross-disciplinary project “The origin and fate of dust in our Universe” funded by the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation as a collaboration between researchers at Chalmers University of Technology and the University of Gothenburg.

The team consists of Thiébaut Schirmer, Theo Khouri, Wouter Vlemmings, Gunnar Nyman, Matthias Maercker, Ramlal Unnikrishnan, Behzad Bojnordi Arbab, Kirsten K. Knudsen, and Susanne Aalto. All the co-authors are based at Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden, except Gunnar Nyman, at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden.

The team used the instrument Sphere (Spectro-Polarimetric High-contrast Exoplanet REsearch) on the Very Large Telescope (VLT), located at the Paranal Observatory in Chile. The VLT is operated by ESO, the European Southern Observatory. Sweden is one of ESO’s 16 member states. 

More about the star

R Doradus is a red giant star located only 180 light years from Earth in the southern hemisphere constellation of Dorado, the Swordfish. Born with a mass similar to the Sun’s, it is now nearing the end of its life. It’s an example of an AGB star (AGB = asymptotic giant branch). Such stars lose their outer layers to interstellar space in the form of dense stellar winds made of gas and dust. R Doradus loses the equivalent of a third of the Earth’s mass every decade. Other similar stars can lose mass hundreds or thousands of times faster. In the distant future, several billion years from now, the Sun is expected to become a star just like R Doradus.

Wide-field view of the region of the sky around the star R Doradus 

Wide-field view of the region of the sky around the star R Doradus.

Credit

ESO/Digitized Sky Survey 2/Davide De Martin

The sky above ESO’s VLT (Very Large Telescope) in Chile 

The sky above ESO’s VLT (Very Large Telescope) in Chile. The star R Doradus lies just to the left of the telescope at the centre of the image, close to the Large Magellanic Cloud, here visible as a bright fuzzy patch in the sky.

Credit

P. Horálek/ESO

AI enabled launch vehicles: Next potential disruptive technology after reusability



Tsinghua University Press





The global space industry has entered a new phase, characterized by the construction of large-scale satellite constellation construction, human lunar exploration and development and others. As the prerequisite and foundation of all space activities, space transportation systems are experiencing rapid growth in the scale of access to space. Especially with the increasing commercialization, it is expected that within the next 20 years, the scale of access to space will exceed several hundred thousand tons, with annual launch numbers reaching tens of thousands, and this number will continue to rise. Space transportation systems face the challenge of low-cost, high-frequency, and highly reliable airline-flight-mode development.

 

The rapidly developing reusable technology can effectively solve the current issue of high launch costs. However, high-frequency launches and highly reliable flights still remain significant challenges. In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) technology has rapidly developed and has become important across various industries. Enabled space transportation with AI technology holds great promise in addressing the challenges of high-frequency launches and highly reliable flights in the era of large-scale access to space. It is expected to become the next disruptive technology in the field of space transportation, following reusability.

 

AI can be enabled in four scenarios to achieve agile testing and launch preparation, significantly improve flight reliability, achieve rapid maintenance and efficient safety operation & control.

 

Based on AI methods, the authors’ goal is to build an intelligent space transportation system that includes smart test launches, high-reliability flight, agile maintenance assessment, and efficient operation control, aiming to achieve test, inspection, and decision-making times for large launch vehicles at the hour level. By integrating return-to-launch-site (RTLS) technology, the system will enable hour-level re-launches after recovery. The autonomous fault location time for test launches will reach the minute level, and the flight reliability will improve by 1-2 orders of magnitude even in case of non-fatal faults. Meanwhile reliable and agile health assessment and maintenance strategies are established to support the optimization of reusable lifespan of launch vehicles. Besides, the integrated space-earth situational awareness, flight operation management scheduling, and coordinated control are realized to support the reliable and safe operation management and control of the entire space-earth system.

 

Original Source

Haipeng Chen, Xiaowei Wang, Feng Zhang. AI Enabled Launch Vehicle: Next Potential Disruptive Technology After Reusability [J]. Chinese Journal of Aeronautics, 2025, 38(10): 103756, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cja.2025.103756.

 

About Chinese Journal of Aeronautics 

Chinese Journal of Aeronautics (CJA) is an open access, peer-reviewed international journal covering all aspects of aerospace engineering, monthly published by Elsevier. The Journal reports the scientific and technological achievements and frontiers in aeronautic engineering and astronautic engineering, in both theory and practice. CJA is indexed in SCI (IF = 5.7, Q1), EI, IAA, AJ, CSA, Scopus.

 

COMMENT: Lukashenko plays the Trump card in bid to end Belarus’s isolation

COMMENT: Lukashenko plays the Trump card in bid to end Belarus’s isolation
Belarusian president Lukashenko is trying to lift sanctions by flattering US president Trump and its working. / bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews December 23, 2025

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has launched a calculated charm offensive towards Washington, using a mix of political prisoner releases, diplomatic gestures and strategic flattery aimed at aligning with US President Donald Trump’s foreign policy instincts. In the process, he is borrowing directly from the playbook he has long used with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

On December 13 after a US-brokered deal, Lukashenko released 123 political prisoners, including some of the most famous: presidential candidate Viktor Babariko, protest leader Maria Kolesnikova, Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski, and Tut.by editor Maryna Zolatava. In return, the US lifted sanctions on Belarus’s potash industry—its biggest cash cow—and hinted at broader concessions to come.

“Lukashenko is using the same approach in his dealings with Trump that has long proven successful with Putin,” political analyst Artyom Shraibman wrote in a commentary for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “That consists of identifying the senior partner’s soft spots and then massaging them with flattery, demonstrative loyalty, and unexpected offers of crisis management services.”

Relations between Belarus and the US have been warming in the last year, but it is still not clear if this a fundamental change in the relations or just a tactical play by Lukashenko. If Trump successfully concludes his transactional peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the US goes into business with Russia then the relationship with Minsk can be deepened, but if the war continues, Lukashenko will remain heavily dependent on Moscow which will limit any split.

In the meantime, the White House has been keen to engage in an attempt to peel Belarus away from Putin’s sphere of influence and Lukashenko has been a willing participant as he looks for leverage to balance his almost total dependence on Moscow. The Trump administration also believes Lukashenko provides a useful channel for influencing Putin. And this comes at very little cost to Washington.

“The US side has delegated the actual diplomacy to professionals. All Donald Trump is required to do is periodically pat Lukashenko on the shoulder via the US president’s social media posts, sign whatever his aides put on his desk when they talk to Minsk and bask in the glory of becoming the first Western leader to have secured the release of several hundred Belarusian political prisoners," says Shraibman.

Trump has appointed his former lawyer, John Coale, as special envoy to Belarus in November. Washington now appears willing to deepen ties, despite the limited strategic significance of Belarus compared to Ukraine or Russia. For Lukashenko, the shift presents a rare chance to escape years of diplomatic isolation.

“Trump may well get the credit for having rescued hundreds of hostages in support of his Nobel Peace Prize bid,” Shraibman noted, adding that Lukashenko is trying to capitalise on “Trump’s approach to the region,” which favours symbolic victories and transactional diplomacy.

Lukashenko has already played several of his aces. The release of 16 prisoners, including Sergey Tikhanovsky (Siarhei Tsikhanouskiy), this summer, the husband of Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya (Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya), and now Bialiatski, Babariko, and Kolesnikova—shows that Minsk sees Trump’s policies as a rare opportunity to end what had looked set to be lifelong isolation.

 

Domestically, the opposition faces renewed pressure to reorganise. With several 2020-era leaders now free, the previously central figure in exile of Tikhanovskaya may see her position as de facto leader contested. Babariko and Kolesnikova have already taken more moderate stances, calling for dialogue with Minsk and for Europe to reassess its sanctions stance—contrasting with Tikhanovskaya’s harder line. As bne IntelliNews reported, the opposition in exile has already been riven by disputes over the best policy direction and a leadership struggle. After Tikhanovsky’s release, his blunt style and ambition have reportedly already led to several conflicts with his wife’s inner circle.

“The structure of the opposition must inevitably become more polyphonic,” Shraibman says. “Personal capital in the West is not easy to pass on, even if Tikhanovskaya wanted to do so.”

On the economic front, logistical constraints remain a key obstacle to restoring Belarusian potash exports. Despite US sanction relief, viable export routes through the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda remain blocked due to deteriorating relationships driven by a balloon smuggling scandal. While some in Vilnius have floated conditional cooperation—such as allowing potash transit in exchange for US troop deployments— the government has been lobbying the EU for increased sanctions on Minsk.

There are few alternative ports to handle the potash exports. There is a corridor to Russia’s northern ports, but the distances involved mean it is too expensive to transport the potash to them by rail. Poland’s Gdansk port remains politically off limits, as Lukashenko has refused to release Polish citizens in Minsk’s jails. A more radical option of exporting via Ukraine’s port of Odesa has been floated. But that is also unlikely as Kyiv considers Lukashenko complicit in Russia’s invasion after he allowed Russian troops to cross the northern border and attack Kyiv from Belarussian territory at the start of the Russian invasion.

One option for circumventing the remaining EU sanctions is if US companies buy Belarusian potash and then export it as their own. But it’s not clear whether such a scheme would be in keeping with the letter and spirit of EU sanctions.

“But that is precisely what could make it a tempting option for the United States,” said Shraibman. “The economic entanglement of former enemies after the war… fits perfectly with Trump’s approach to the region.”

In a surprise move, most of the released political prisoners were transferred not to Lithuania, but to Ukraine, signalling a shift in diplomatic positioning. According to Shraibman, the aim is twofold: “to exclude Lithuania and the Belarusian opposition-in-exile from the proceedings” and “to insert itself into the Russia–Ukraine peace process.”

“By framing his negotiations with the United States within the context of the Russia–Ukraine talks, Lukashenko is demonstrating his full support for Washington’s peace initiatives and his willingness to contribute as much as possible to them. Lukashenko also began his meeting with Coale on December 12 by praising Trump’s latest efforts to end the war and expressing his support for them.”3

Lukashenko has even offered Belarus as a safe haven for Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro—another authoritarian leader Trump is seeking to dislodge. This overture, combined with a media interview given to pro-Trump outlet Newsmax, marks a full-scale attempt to present Minsk as a useful partner in Washington’s geopolitical goals.

“Even if some ideas are not ultimately needed, the enthusiasm and desire to be helpful will not be forgotten,” Shraibman concluded.

White House rift widens between Rubio and Witkoff over Ukraine peace efforts

White House rift widens between Rubio and Witkoff over Ukraine peace efforts
A rift between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff has widen as they clash over how best to end the war in Ukraine, according to reports. / bne IntelliNews
By Ben Aris in Berlin December 23, 2025

A rift between top White House officials over what is the best policy to end the war in Ukraine has widened, NBC News reported on December 23.

An argument has developed between the hawks and doves in the Trump administration. The hawks are led by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff who is leading the negotiations with Russia. They believe that Ukraine will never regain the five territories occupied and annexed by Russia and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy should concede them to Russian President Vladimir Putin. More recently, Witkoff has been joined by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who is believed to be US President Donald Trump’s personal representative in the talks and is also sympathetic to the Russian position.

The doves are led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has a softer view and is more supportive of the European position that as part of any peace deal Russia should withdraw from some of the territories it occupies and is a stronger backer of the Kyiv position than the hawks.

Tensions surfaced within the US foreign policy apparatus over Ukraine after the Miami meeting on December 20-21 failed to make any progress. NBC News reported an ongoing behind-the-scenes rivalry between Rubio and Witkoff over the direction of peace talks with Kyiv flared up again.

The dispute involves multiple instances in which Witkoff has arranged meetings and informal diplomatic initiatives without Rubio’s involvement or approval. A deepening power struggle within the Trump team is growing as it seeks to define its approach to ending the war in Ukraine, according to more than a dozen current and former US and European officials cited by NBC News.

One senior Trump administration official quoted by NBC said: “It is so clear that Rubio has been cut out of this. He should be the guy leading all of this.”

A similar thing has happened to the Russian side, where Russia’s veteran Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has largely been cut out of the negotiations and reportedly tried to exclude the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev, who is leading the Russian delegation. Neither Witkoff or Dmitriev are professional diplomats. Both are businessmen and have been negotiating business deals in parallel to the peace talks throughout the talks this year.

Tensions in the US top echelon have been building since at least April 2025, when Rubio, then due to meet French officials in Paris for Ukraine-related talks, discovered that the French Foreign Ministry had already scheduled a separate engagement with Witkoff. French officials reportedly suggested Rubio could attend the meeting personally arranged by Witkoff, and he eventually joined the conversation.

The rivalry intensified in November, when Witkoff held a series of undisclosed meetings with Ukrainian officials, including in Geneva. According to NBC News, Rubio only learned about the talks after Ukrainian interlocutors asked his representatives about them directly.

Witkoff’s approach—widely seen as more transactional and aligned with Donald Trump’s public overtures towards Russia—has also clashed with State Department officials. Disagreements have centred in particular on his contacts with Moscow and his broader stance on US–Russia relations.

“Some in the Trump administration have questioned the appropriateness of Witkoff using his private jet to fly to Moscow, especially given the lack of secure communications,” one source told NBC.

In May, following growing concerns, both the US State Department and the Trump transition team initiated a review into Witkoff’s activities, including the use of a private aircraft and the absence of secure government communication systems on board. “But there are still concerns that Witkoff is not consistently using the secure government communication systems,” said a US official with direct knowledge of the matter.

Despite these internal frictions, the White House, Rubio and Witkoff have maintained a public stance of unity. Officials continue to insist that both the Secretary of State and the special envoy are working together to facilitate a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

Rubio has previously distanced himself from Trump’s remarks on Ukraine, particularly after Trump suggested in November that the US administration was split into “two camps” over how to end the war. Rubio dismissed the idea as “fake news” at the time, but the NBC News report suggests deeper divisions are playing out behind closed doors.

After the Trump team floated the original 28-point peace plan (28PPP), also known as Witkoff-Dmitriev plan, Rubio undermined that proposal by calling a Geneva summit on November 23 where the EU and Ukraine produced their own version of the plan that the Kremlin rejected out of hand.

Witkoff, a property developer and long-time Trump associate, was appointed as special envoy to Ukraine earlier this year. His unconventional diplomatic style and lack of formal diplomatic experience have drawn criticism, particularly from traditional foreign policy figures.

 

Rich nations new oil and gas approvals to breach 1.5°C Paris threshold locking in irreversible warming - study

Rich nations new oil and gas approvals to breach 1.5°C Paris threshold locking in irreversible warming - study
The IEA has called for a halt to developing all new oil and gas projects if there is any hope of staying within the 1.5C temperature increase cap agreed in Paris. Five rich nations are ignoring the recommendation, making a disaster almost certain. / bne IntelliNews
By Ben Aris in Berlin December 23, 2025

A wave of new rich nations oil and gas extraction projects approved since 2022 will consume nearly one-fifth of the world’s remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C, according to a new peer-reviewed study published in Environmental Research Letters on December 19. Just five nations are responsible for most of the gains with Trump’s America accounting for a third of the increases by itself.

The study, led by researchers at the Stockholm Environment Institute and Oil Change International, finds that fossil fuel projects approved in 2022 and 2023 alone could emit more than 24bn tonnes of CO₂ over their lifetimes—equivalent to 17% of the global carbon budget remaining as of 2023 if warming is to be kept below 1.5°C with a 50% probability.

“This analysis makes clear that governments are approving new fossil fuel extraction that is fundamentally incompatible with the Paris Agreement,” said Kelly Trout, co-author of the study and research director at Oil Change International. “This is not a marginal overshoot—it is a reckless gamble with the climate system.”

The research identifies five countries as responsible for the majority of post-2021 fossil fuel project approvals: the United States, Canada, Norway, the United Kingdom, and Qatar. Of these, the US alone accounts for nearly one-third of the projected emissions, led by the approval of major oil and gas expansions including the controversial Willow project in Alaska.

According to the International Energy Agency, no new oil and gas fields are needed beyond those already producing if the world is to reach net zero by 2050. Yet the new study shows that governments have continued to greenlight major developments that would lock in emissions for decades.

"These projects are long-lived, capital-intensive, and once started, are politically and economically difficult to stop," said Ploy Achakulwisut, a scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute and co-author of the report.

The study calculates that if all approved projects go forward, global oil and gas extraction in 2030 will exceed levels aligned with a 1.5°C pathway by 35%, and by 19% in 2050. This expansion contrasts sharply with global climate commitments, including the COP28    agreement in Dubai, which called for a “transition away from fossil fuels.”

The researchers also emphasise that these new extraction projects contradict national climate pledges. All five countries highlighted in the report have made formal net-zero commitments, and four are members of the G7, which has publicly committed to climate leadership.

The report adds to growing pressure on governments to impose moratoriums on new fossil fuel approvals, which will almost certainly be ignored. "Approving new oil and gas in 2023 is like building new coal plants in 2020—economically risky and environmentally disastrous," said Peter Erickson, another co-author.

With global CO₂ emissions are already at all-time highs and continuing to rise, the Climate Crisis is accelerating. The IPCC says that the Paris Agreement goal of keeping temperature increases to less than 1.5°C-2°C  above the pre-industrial benchmark has already been missed and temperature increase are on course to reach a catastrophic 2.7C-3.1C by 2050. At that point extreme temperature events will become routine and large parts of the world will become uninhabitable.  

The study serves as yet another warning that climate ambitions are being undermined by investment decisions that carry irreversible consequences.

“Time is not on our side,” said Trout. “Every new approval widens the gap between rhetoric and reality.”

Fossil fuel expansion risks triggering AMOC collapse

The study also highlights the growing danger of crossing irreversible climate tipping points, including the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—a major ocean current system that regulates temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere.

The AMOC could collapse as early as mid-century, with some models projecting a breakdown between 2025 and 2095. That would trigger a mini-ice age in Europe where average winter temperatures would fall by 10°C to 30°C, accompanied by catastrophic global consequences, including intensified summertime heatwaves in Europe, disrupted monsoons in Africa and South Asia, and accelerated ice loss in the Arctic and Antarctica.

“New oil and gas projects increase the likelihood of breaching critical planetary boundaries, including the AMOC,” the authors write. They argue that by expanding fossil fuel extraction in defiance of the 1.5°C limit, governments are increasing the risk of triggering feedback loops that would amplify global warming and destabilise climate systems.

Those feedback loops are already kicking in with temperature currently rising faster than the worst case scenarios of all the climate models on which the Paris agreement targets are based.

Trout said: “The risks of passing irreversible climate tipping points are no longer theoretical—they are now part of the near-term outlook. Continuing to approve fossil fuel expansion is playing roulette with planetary systems.”

The warning follows multiple scientific assessments indicating that the window to avoid tipping points is narrowing rapidly, with carbon-intensive infrastructure locking in emissions through mid-century.

 COMMUNALIST VIOLENCE

India-Bangladesh ties worsen after lynching of Hindu garment worker

India-Bangladesh ties worsen after lynching of Hindu garment worker
On December 20, 2025, Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus attended the funeral of Sharif Osman Hadi at the National Parliament’s South Plaza / Chief Adviser of the Government of Bangladesh - X
By bno - Kolkata Office December 24, 2025

Relations between India and Bangladesh have deteriorated sharply following a wave of violent protests in Bangladesh and a lynching that has inflamed public opinion on both sides of the border, raising concerns that a once close bilateral relationship is entering a prolonged period of mistrust.

The immediate trigger has been the killing of Dipu Chandra Das, a 27-year-old Hindu garment worker in northern Bangladesh, who was beaten to death by a mob after allegations of blasphemy, the BBC reports. His death came amid wider unrest sparked by the murder of Sharif Osman Hadi, a prominent student leader, in Dhaka. Together, the two incidents have intensified communal tensions inside Bangladesh while fuelling political anger in India.

In India, Hindu nationalist groups have already staged protests condemning violence against Bangladesh’s Hindu minority. Across the border in Bangladesh, meanwhile, suspicions that a key suspect in Hadi’s killing may have fled to India have only served to reinforce long-standing narratives of Indian interference the BBC continues. While there has been no police confirmation to this end it has served to deepen anti-India sentiment in the Muslim-majority country.

The diplomatic fallout has been swift. Both the Bangladesh and Indian governments have suspended visa services in a number of cities. Both have also accused the other of a failure to protect diplomatic premises. Demonstrations outside missions in Delhi, Dhaka and Chittagong have prompted formal protests, with both sides summoning senior envoys to convey their concerns.

Underlying the latest crisis, however, are longer and much deeper-running grievances. Many Bangladeshis have resented India’s influence during the 15-year rule of Sheikh Hasina, who was deposed in August 2024, and is currently living in India – in the eyes of many in Bangladesh, protected by New Delhi. As a result, India’s refusal so far to return her, despite repeated requests from Dhaka, has become a focal point for political mobilisation and street protests.

Security forces in Bangladesh meanwhile have struggled to contain demonstrations targeting Indian diplomatic sites, while stone-throwing attacks and attempted marches have heightened tensions. In India, counter-rallies outside Bangladeshi missions have drawn sharp objections from Dhaka, adding to the sense of mutual suspicion.

The lynching of Das has thus further strained relations, particularly after graphic footage circulated widely online. Bangladesh’s interim administration, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, has pledged accountability and confirmed multiple arrests. Yet analysts say the killing has renewed fears about the safety of minorities and civil society figures in a more permissive environment for religious hardliners since Hasina’s removal.

In recent months, radical Islamist groups have become more visible on the streets of Bangladesh, with reports of attacks on Hindu communities as well as vandalism of Sufi shrines, restrictions on women’s participation in sport and pressure on cultural activities. Media outlets and cultural institutions accused of being sympathetic towards or in some way linked to India have also been targeted, amplifying concerns about freedom of expression.

The BBC adds that human rights organisations have warned of a rise in mob violence over the past year, while critics argue that the interim government has struggled half-heartedly at times, to assert authority and maintain public order amid political uncertainty.

For India, the stakes are multiple in nature. Parliamentary assessments in Delhi have described developments in Bangladesh as the most serious challenge to Indian security interests since the 1971 war of independence, particularly given the importance of stability for India’s north-eastern states.

In Bangladesh, authorities are moving towards elections on February 12 , with Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League barred from contesting and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party expected to perform strongly. However, Islamist parties could complicate the political landscape, and there are fears that anti-India sentiment may be exploited in the run-up to the vote, risking further unrest.

Until then, both governments face pressure to prevent street-level anger from hardening into lasting hostility.