Wednesday, May 17, 2023

RIGHT TURN

Erdogan rival sharpens tone on migrants before Turkey runoff

Kilicdaroglu accuses Erdogan of allowing unchecked migration

Analysts say concerns over terrorism helped Erdogan in election

Erdogan is in pole position to win May 28 runoff


By Huseyin Hayatsever, Ali Kucukgocmen and Burcu Karakas

ANKARA, May 17 (Reuters) - Tayyip Erdogan's rival in Turkey's presidential race accused the government on Wednesday of allowing 10 million "irregular" migrants to enter the country, marking a nationalist turn in his rhetoric ahead of a May 28 runoff vote.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, candidate of a six-party opposition alliance, trailed Erdogan in the first round of the presidential election held on Sunday, confounding expectations in opinion polls that he would come out ahead.

Kilicdaroglu's latest comments came after his party said it had filed complaints over suspected irregularities at thousands of ballot boxes in Sunday's landmark elections.

Erdogan's ruling Islamist-rooted AK Party and its nationalist allies won a comfortable parliamentary majority in Sunday's elections, while Erdogan fell just shy of the 50% threshold needed to win outright in the presidential contest.

Kilicdaroglu, chair of the secularist Republican People's Party (CHP), received 44.9% in what was seen as the biggest electoral challenge to Erdogan's 20-year rule.

A third candidate, nationalist Sinan Ogan, obtained 5.17% and both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu are expected to seek his endorsement in negotiations this week.

"We will not abandon our homeland to this mentality that allowed 10 million irregular migrants to come among us," Kilicdaroglu said in a video posted on Twitter on Wednesday, warning the number of migrants could go up to 30 million.

"Those who love their homeland, come to the ballot box," Kilicdaroglu urged voters.

He provided no evidence regarding the number of migrants. Turkey hosts the world's largest refugee population of around 4 million, according to official figures.

Turkish authorities have caught nearly 50,600 irregular migrants this year as of May 11, after apprehending some 285,000 in 2022, according to Interior Ministry data.

Kilicdaroglu's nationalist-flavoured video suggested that his campaign was departing from its previous more moderate stance.

It could also be seen as appealing to supporters of Ogan, who had campaigned on sending back migrants, including some 3.6 million Syrians displaced by war to the south.

FRACTURED OPPOSITION

Erdogan, now in pole position, says only he can ensure stability in Turkey, a NATO member state, as it grapples with a cost-of-living crisis, soaring inflation and the impact of devastating earthquakes in February.

Analysts have said Erdogan's insistence that the opposition was backed by Kurdish militants - using fabricated videos and without any evidence - had chimed with his voter base, outweighing their economic worries.

His message was an allusion to the pro-Kurdish Green Left Party (YSP), which backed Kilicdaroglu but was not part of the six-party opposition alliance.

The YSP, which is the third largest party in the new parliament after Erdogan's AKP and Kilicdaroglu's CHP, denies ties to the Kurdish militants.

Mehmet Ali Kulat, chairman of MAK polling company, said that for many voters the opposition did not appear sufficiently tough on terrorism.

"The government made voters answer this question: 'Okay, you lost some of your wealth and resources but do you want to lose your state too?" Kulat said.

In Wednesday's video, Kilicdaroglu also accused Erdogan of cooperating with the network Ankara accuses of orchestrating a 2016 coup attempt. The network is classed in Turkey as a terrorist organisation.

Metropoll pollster Ozer Sencar said the opposition alliance had created a fractured image due to internal disputes.

"They damaged their reputation," he said.

MAK's Kulat said a majority of voters in the 11 provinces hit by the earthquakes had also mostly supported Erdogan because they believed he was best placed to rebuild devastated cities.

Separately on Wednesday the CHP said it had filed complaints over suspected irregularities at thousands of ballot boxes in the elections, though party officials said the objections were unlikely to alter the overall result of the presidential vote.

Additional reporting by Ali Kucukgocmen in Ankara; Editing by Jonathan Spicer and Gareth Jones


Turkey opposition contests thousands of ballots after election

Credit: REUTERS/YVES HERMAN

May 17, 2023 

Written by Huseyin Hayatsever and Ali Kucukgocmen for Reuters ->

ANKARA, May 17 (Reuters) - Turkey's main opposition party said on Wednesday it had filed complaints over suspected irregularities at thousands of ballot boxes in Sunday's landmark election, in which President Tayyip Erdogan performed better than expected.

Muharrem Erkek, a deputy chairman of the secularist Republican People's Party (CHP), said the irregularities at each ballot box ranged from one single wrongly counted vote to hundreds of such votes.

He said the CHP had formally raised objections over 2,269 ballot boxes nationwide for the presidential election and 4,825 for the parliamentary vote that also took place on Sunday.

Erdogan's ruling Islamist-rooted AK Party and its nationalist allies surprised pollsters by winning a strong majority in parliament.

In the presidential vote, Erdogan is headed for a runoff on May 28 against challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu after falling just shy of the 50% threshold needed to win outright in the first round.

Kilicdaroglu, the CHP chair, received 44.9% in what was seen as the biggest electoral challenge to Erdogan's 20-year rule. A third candidate, Sinan Ogan obtained 5.17%.

"We are following every single vote, even if it does not change the overall results," Erkek told reporters in Ankara.

There were a total of 201,807 ballot boxes set up for the election, in Turkey and abroad, Erkek said.

The deadline for challenging the results of the presidential election expired on Monday, while that for the parliamentary vote expired on Tuesday, Erkek said, adding that the CHP had filed all its appeals within these timeframes.

The opposition alliance that includes the CHP has appealed to young voters, in particular, to turn out to support Kilicdaroglu in the runoff, saying the first round showed that Erdogan had lost the vote of confidence he had sought.

Erdogan, now in pole position, says only he can ensure stability in Turkey, a NATO member state, as it grapples with a cost-of-living crisis, soaring inflation and the impact of devastating earthquakes in February.

(Reporting by Huseyin Hayatsever and Ali Kucukgocmen; Editing by Jonathan Spicer and Gareth Jones)
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Main parties struggle to excite first-time Greek voters

Petros KONSTANTINIDIS
Tue, May 16, 2023 

The train crash prompted tens of thousands of people to take to the streets to vent fury with the government

They are Greece's first-time voters, some as young as 16-years-old, who came of age during national bankruptcy, the Covid pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis.

Now they have a chance to decide the country's future when Greece goes to the polls on Sunday, three months after the nation's worst rail tragedy, in which 30 of the 57 people killed were under 30 years old.

The disaster prompted tens of thousands of people to take to the streets to vent fury with the government, which for the last eight years has been led by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis or his main rival, Alexis Tsipras.

Conservative Mitsotakis, 55, leftist Tsipras, 48, and Socialist ex-MEP Nikos Androulakis, 44, are dominating the polls and high-school student Nefeli Zouganeli, 16, is eager to have her voice heard.

"I recently learnt that I have the right to vote, and I am enthusiastic about it," she told AFP at her home in the northern Athens suburb of Anixi.

Greece is one of only three EU countries that allow teenagers under 18 to vote. In Sunday's election, that means anyone born in 2006 or earlier.

This time, nearly 440,000 young Greeks are eligible to cast their vote for the first time, representing around eight percent of the electorate.

- 'Sickened' -

Despite politicians' repeated calls and social media stunts, however, young voters are not expected to turn out massively on Sunday.

Only one in four people aged 17-24 voted in the last election in 2019, notes Maria Karaklioumi, a political analyst for polling company RASS.

Zouganeli expects most of her classmates -- fed up with the main parties -- to either skip the vote or pick one of dozens of small parties with little hope of making it to parliament.

"I think we must all go to vote. Abstention is not a solution," says the teen with dyed, cyan-coloured hair.

The February 28 train disaster, on the country's main train line from Athens to the second city Thessaloniki, may help tip the election.
















At the height of protests in March, tens of thousands of people demonstrated across the country.

Kostis Smanis, a 25-year-old electronics engineering graduate looking for work, says he was "sickened" by the government blaming the duty stationmaster and ducking responsibility for years of mismanagement and under investment.

"I did not like how they tried to cover it up," he says.

- 'Wages are very low' -

For him, however, the biggest issue in the election is the Greek jobs market.

"Wages are very low compared to living costs," says the graduate, who spent three years studying in England's northern city of Manchester.



Smanis returned to Greece hoping to build his future near his family and friends but does not rule out the possibility of leaving again.

"If I decide to stay here, the idea of renting an apartment seems distant," admits the job seeker, who still lives with his parents the Athens suburb of Neo Iraklio.

Greece is the country with the second highest level of youth unemployment in the European Union, with 24.2 percent of those under-25 jobless, according to the latest available data from EU statistics agency Eurostat in March.

"Despite being better educated... the new generation has a significantly higher participation in professions that are considered badly paid and that have poor working conditions," says Alexis Ioannides, a professor of political economy of labour at Democritus University of Thrace.

Thomas Zoumis, 21, who lives on the tourist island of Paros and works in his family's road assistance company, says a steady income is paramount.

"The main thing that I expect from the government is to help me improve my financial situation," he said.

- 'Mojito instead of voting' -

Though tourism brings money and creates jobs, Thomas wants more for his island.

"We don't have the infrastructure to sustain so many people in the summer: roads, water, electricity, internet. I pay my taxes to the central government, but I don't get much in return," he grumbled.

Caught between last-minute election promises, including a 150-euro "coming-of-age" voucher and increasing the 780-euro minimum wage to at least 880 euros, Greece's first-time voters have little time to decide.

"I think I will vote for the lesser evil," says Smanis, who thinks the Greek political scene is afraid of innovation. "Politicians only try to sell to the people want they want to hear" he says.

For 16-year-old Zouganeli, though, ideology is important. "If we vote according to what we stand for, maybe things can change," she says.

But in a country with an ageing population, no one talks about what Greece will look like in 20 years' time, regrets Karaklioumi.

"It's no wonder that a young person will prefer to go for a mojito instead of voting," she concludes.

pk-jph/jm


As Greek elections loom, parties vie for votes of 'lost generation'

By KAROLINA TAGARIS
Wednesday, 17 May 2023

People visit the Areios Pagos hill, with the Acropolis' Propylaea seen in the background, in Athens, Greece, May 13, 2023. REUTERS/Louiza Vradi

ATHENS (Reuters) - Politicians vying for votes in Greece's election on Sunday have turned to YouTube and TikTok to win over a younger generation who have long felt that years of crises have cost them their youth.

Eirini Baliaka is a case in point. A decade after entering university in the hopes of becoming a teacher, juggling jobs to pay bills as Greece faced a deep economic slump, a pandemic and cost-of-living crisis ensued, leaving her no closer to that ambition.

"What I imagined at 18 is a long way away from what I'm living at 28," the physics student said. "I don't know how we cannot be called a lost generation. I feel like I lost the game before it even began."

Wooing under 30s like Baliaka is proving a challenge for parties across the spectrum ahead of the May 21 vote, with political pledges seen as falling short for a generation that will be vital to Greece's economic outlook as its population ages.

A new electoral system means an outright winner is unlikely on Sunday, making every vote count.

Opinion polls show the ruling conservative New Democracy party ahead of the leftist Syriza overall. Among young voters, leftwing opposition parties tend to be more popular, but many remain undecided.

"It's a generation of Greeks who grew up in difficult and unprecedented conditions, which does not allow them to take things too lightly," said George Arapoglou, head of Pulse pollsters.

"They don't need someone to inform them, they need someone to convince them."

STATE OF STAGNATION

If elected, Syriza says it will abolish university entry requirements, while New Democracy has promised a 150-euro benefit when someone turns 18.

Lamprini Rori, assistant professor of political analysis at Athens University, says that, like Baliaka, most of her students work, and that will mark their political identity in the future.

Inflation and economic growth are the issues foremost on their minds, and while 82% of young Greeks say they intend to vote, only 35% believe elections can improve things, a survey by Eteron think tank found.

"If we continue with the same government I feel it will bring me more despair. If anyone else comes, do I believe it will bring about a big change? No," Baliaka said.

Her predicament reflects a wider problem.

While the economy is forecast to grow by 2.3% this year and unemployment has eased to 10%, nearly a quarter of those under 24 are jobless, and 14% of those under 30 are "severely materially or socially deprived," according to Eurostat, both figures more than double the EU average.

Economists say the scarring effects of lost income, skills and productivity suffered in earlier years will likely last a lifetime and could spell problems for state finances down the line, with an ageing and shrinking population worsened by an exodus of nearly 500,000 skilled young Greeks during the crisis.

"Pension income is a fiscal problem," said Vlassis Missios, an economist at the Greek Centre of Planning and Economic Research. "In order to be covered, it requires a productive base that increases wages."

For many young Greeks, finding suitable work is tough.

"Greece keeps you in a state of stagnation because of the bad - or few - opportunities it gives you," Baliaka said.

SOCIETY THAT 'TAKES AND TAKES'

Greece's dire demographic problems mean young voters are only a small part of the electorate, at around 18%, but politicians cannot afford to be indifferent.

"It is a matter of political cost but also symbolically, they want to show that they care," Rori said.

"Even if they can't win the votes of the young people, they don't want to have them as opponents. There's always the danger of social unrest."

In 2008, weeks of riots over the police killing of a teenager helped topple the government.

In March, after Greece's deadliest train crash killed 57 people, most of them students, thousands of youths took to the streets in the biggest anti-government protests in years.

"We know that as young people we have to fight for our rights, for our needs, but it turns out we even have to fight for our own lives," said Evangelia Grigoriou, a 22-year-old student whose friend was killed in the crash.

"This can only cause anger and indignation. You wonder, what kind of society do I live in anyway? It doesn't offer me anything. It just takes and takes."

(Reporting by Karolina Tagaris; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

Greeks brace for post-election uncertainty amid polls row

By Sarantis Michalopoulos | EURACTIV.com
May 15, 2023

The estimates of a "poll of the polls" differ significantly from the published polls, showing a neck-and-neck race between the New Democracy and Syriza.
[EPA-EFE/VLACHOS ALEXANDROS]

Greeks are casting their ballots on 21 May in one of the most unpredictable national elections in years, with the formation of a new government uncertain and the leading politicians bickering over the credibility of current opinion polls that favour the ruling conservatives.

The election will be held under new electoral law, applying a proportional system in the first round, and analysts estimate that a party seeking to govern alone would need to get 46% of the overall vote, which is difficult.

Otherwise, the single strongest party will have to negotiate with others to form a coalition government, something somewhat unusual in Greek politics.

The three main parties in the running are the ruling New Democracy party (EPP), the main leftist opposition Syriza party (EU Left), and the socialists (Pasok – S&D).

New Democracy prefers a single-party government, while Syriza has clarified that it aims for a “progressive coalition” with the socialists.

Pasok, for their part, is expected to play the kingmaker’s role, but the party has kept its cards close to the chest, although their electoral program is much closer to that of Syriza’s.

New Democracy and Syriza are considered the two ideological opposites, and any collaboration between them is ruled out.

If negotiations for a coalition government fail, a second round will be held in July, where a party or parties will need almost 37% of the vote to form a government.

Depending on its performance, the first party will get some “bonus” seats redistributed from those who do not cross the threshold.

The heated debate over polls

New Democracy has so far been leading all polls published on national media.

According to EuropeElects, which provides the average of national polls, New Democracy could get 36.6% of the vote in the first round, followed by Syriza at 29.5% and Pasok at 10.3%.

Greece: national parliament election (popular vote)

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Europe Elects polling average for EURACTIV · Updated: 11 May 2023



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Greece: national parliament election (seats)

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Europe Elects seat projection for EURACTIV · Updated: 11 May 2023
Syriza has recently called for more transparency of the pollsters, asking them to publish the primary data of their surveys. However, such a proposal was rejected by both New Democracy and the Association of polling companies.

“Don’t look at the polls”, Syriza chief Alexis Tsipras recently told his supporters during a speech in Thessaloniki.

Government spokesman Akis Skertsos replied that questioning the polls is a tactic of losers.

Syriza insists that it is not possible for the ruling party to see its support increasing, especially just a couple of weeks after a deadly train crash that killed 57 people and angered the nation.

Read more: EU prosecutor investigates contract related to Greek train tragedy

It is not the first time that the issue of polls is being discussed in Greece.

For example, all polls massively failed to project the result of the 2015 Greek referendum and have not managed to predict with relative accuracy the electoral performance of Syriza in several successive votes.

Some analysts suggest that the problem may be structural, considering that the polling methodology followed in Greece focuses mainly on landlines, and companies consequently fail to identify the younger and more progressive voters.

The ‘poll of the polls’

At the same time, multinational companies operating on the Athens stock exchange conduct their own polls with the traditional and more costly ballot methodology, i.e. by completing a questionnaire in person.

They also use special algorithms to analyse the published results of other polling companies, taking into account the deviations they showed in previous election periods and assigning them the corresponding accuracy coefficient.

To some extent, the process resembles the poll of polls by specialist US agencies such as FiveThirtyEight.

EURACTIV was shown one of these polls, which was handed over last Friday (12 May) to C-level executives of the company that commissioned it, but also to influential European actors.

Greek National Elections - May 2023

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Greek National Elections

The estimates differ significantly from the published polls, showing a neck-and-neck race between the New Democracy and Syriza.

Yet, the projections clearly indicate that there is little chance for either of the two to form a coalition government with the third-placed party after the first round.

Yet, this methodology’s assessment of the election result is in the number of votes.

According to this poll, New Democracy is estimated to get 1.890.000 votes, followed by Syriza with 1.860.000 votes and Pasok with 510.000 votes.

The abstention rate corresponds to the previous Greek national elections held in July 2019.

Greece is one of the EU countries with the highest nominal abstention (42% in 2019), but it is difficult to assess to what extent this percentage corresponds to reality since the electoral rolls are rarely updated.

However, it is estimated that a possible reduction in abstention is in the interest of Syriza since most abstainers are typically younger citizens.

According to a survey conducted by Eteron Institute for Research and Social Change, approximately 430,000 Greek young voters will play a decisive role in the next elections.

The conservative government has responded negatively to calls by all opposition parties for young people who will be away from their constituency – mainly those employed in seasonal work – to participate in the elections.

Brussels stance

Meanwhile, EU officials have adopted a “wait and see approach” but are anything but certain that a government will be formed after the first round.

EURACTIV was informed that due to the uncertainty over the Greek vote result, and the possibility of having only a technical government in place next Monday, the European Commission wants to speed up the adoption of a new EU sanctions package against Moscow this week before the Greek election.

According to insiders, Athens, keen to protect its lucrative shipping industry, has raised reservations over the proposed sanctions related to shipping, and any further talks could significantly delay the adoption of the new package.

It is, therefore, crucial to reach a compromise this week, an EU diplomat told EURACTIV.

(Sarantis Michalopoulos – Edited by Zoran Radosavljević, Benjamin Fox | EURACTIV.com)


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