Forest Recognition for Papua Tribe Raises Hopes for Climate


Country:
INDONESIA

Author:
Peter Yeung
INTERNATIONAL RJF GRANTEE

ENGLISH

Project
Indonesia's Indigenous Customary Forest

READ MORE ABOUT THIS PROJECT

Indigenous peoples are increasingly recognised as the most effective custodians of the world’s remaining forests

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Yustina Ogoney has been head of her district since 2017. 

Image by Peter Yeung/Al Jazeera. Indonesia, 2023.

Striding barefoot through the emerald green jungle with a long wooden bow slung over his shoulder, Josep Ogoney points up at the tropical vegetation surrounding him and his remote riverside village.

“This is my pasar,” said the 37-year-old, using the Indonesian word for a market. “I can take animals to eat, plants for medicine and wood to build my home.”

But this stretch of pristine rainforest is rather different from conventional markets.

“It’s all free,” grinned Josep, who is a member of the Ogoney, an Indigenous clan from Indonesia who inhabit the far-eastern, richly-forested province of West Papua.

That is not entirely true. The Ogoney have cultivated the forest for centuries, living off the fruits of their labour. Here, they grow pineapples, sago and sweet potatoes, they hunt deer and pigs, and they use endemic plants to nourish and heal themselves.

But while parts of the Ogoney’s forest have been set aside for sustainable use of the abundant natural resources, much is considered sacred according to their traditional beliefs and, therefore, it is not only left untouched, but fiercely protected.

“We depend on the forest,” adds Josep. “We will reject anyone who tries to exploit it.”

Josep Ogoney says the forest is like a ‘market’ for the Ogoney people, but they also consider much of it sacred and are fiercely protective of it. Image by Peter Yeung/Al Jazeera. Indonesia, 2023.

Indigenous peoples and local communities, like the Ogoney, manage half the world’s land and 80 percent of its biodiversity and have been effective custodians and defenders of nature for generations. Forests on Indigenous lands, which store 37.7 billion tonnes of carbon globally, play a major role in stabilising the earth’s climate.

But only recently have Indigenous peoples and local communities begun to receive mainstream recognition for that role. At the United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2021, also known as COP26, world leaders pledged to provide $1.7bn to support these communities, citing evidence that they reduce deforestation.

“By using sustainable practices taught from one generation to another, they actively safeguard forests, preserving biodiversity and keeping a delicate balance essential for both the environment and their own sustenance,” said Emmanuelle Bérenger, lead for sustainable forest management at the Rainforest Alliance, a global nonprofit. “To effectively protect forests, they need to be supported through legal recognition.”
Long process

Lessons for supporting Indigenous-led conservation can be learned from Indonesia, which, in 2016, began legally recognising Indigenous “customary forests” in order to both bolster land tenure rights and better manage the nation’s natural resources.

To date, Indonesia’s Ministry of Environment and Forestry, which oversees the third largest tract of rainforest in the world, has recognised the customary forests of more than 100 tribes, reallocating 153,000 hectares (591 square miles) of land previously under state control.

In October, the Ogoney became the first Indigenous people in West Papua province to have a customary forest recognised by the government. It spans 16,299 hectares (63 square miles) of lowland tropical forest, which contains rare species such as birds of paradise and cassowaries – emu-like creatures that are the closest living species to dinosaurs.

“I myself thank God because of this acknowledgement,” said Yustina Ogoney, head of Merdey district, which encompasses all the Ogoney villages. “I pay serious attention to forest protection because if there is no forest, it will have a big impact on us.”

Recognition was the culmination of a long, difficult process that began in 2017.

The Ogoney began their application for customary land recognition after a timber company, Papua Satya Kencana (PASKA), was issued a concession in their district.

“I saw that areas belonging to other clans in the Moskona tribe suffered massive timber harvesting by the company,” said Yustina, who in 2017 became the head of the district. “Our forest is still intact, and we didn’t want it to happen here.”

It was not a simple process.

Many of the Ogoney had no idea about the existence or importance of the decree on customary land recognition, and when it came to mapping the territorial boundaries, there were disputes between communities as to where they should be. Several site visits were required before the government eventually verified the application.

“The government has been very slow to give recognition, especially for the Papuans,” says Sulfianto Alias of Panah Papua, which with the support of Perkumpulan HuMa Indonesia, led participatory mapping for the Ogoney and six other clans in the region.
The Ogoney have cultivated their forest for at least seven generations. Image by Peter Yeung/Al Jazeera. Indonesia, 2023.

As part of the process, Panah Papua produced a study of the Ogoney culture, which is known for its sustainability.

The clan, which according to the research dates back at least seven generations, practise shifting cultivation, largely of sago, which comes from palm trees, and buah merah, an endemic red fruit known for its healing properties – with rules dictating where in the forest cultivation is permitted.

“It is a beautiful place,” said Rosalina Ogoney, a 41-year-old from the same village as Josep. “We have fields where we can grow food, but only for what we need, and elsewhere it is forbidden to even enter – let alone hunt or carry out activities.”

As a result, the rainforest has been preserved. A study by the Samdhana Institute, an Indonesian nonprofit, found that between 1990 and 2020 just 51 hectares (126 acres) of forest were lost on the Ogoney’s land, an annual deforestation rate of just 0.1 percent.

By comparison, Nusantara Atlas, an independent deforestation monitor, estimates Indonesia’s tree cover loss from 2001 to 2021 was an average 0.5 percent each year.

“The evidence shows that Indigenous people protect their forest,” said Yunus Yumte, Papua project coordinator for the institute. “We found the low deforestation was due to the traditional cultural practices in forest and land cultivation and limited access.”
The Ogoney grow pineapples, sago and sweet potatoes, and use endemic plants to nourish and heal themselves. Image by Peter Yeung/Al Jazeera. Indonesia, 2023.
Buah merah [red fruit] is known for its healing qualities. Image by Peter Yeung/Al Jazeera. Indonesia, 2023.

As well as a source of food, medicine and building materials, the forest provides a key defence against floods – more frequent due to climate change – in Ogoney territory, which is surrounded by large rivers at the foot of the Arfak mountains.
Boost for women

Beyond the climate benefits, the broader recognition of customary forests is seen as an opportunity to improve gender equality and livelihoods among Indigenous peoples, who are disproportionately affected by poverty and discrimination.

Previously, the Ogoney received scant agricultural training or support because their land was considered state forest, but officials at the Ministry of Manpower and Bogor Agricultural University are now working to help improve the efficiency of crop cultivation. There is also the prospect of ecotourism being developed.

“I hope that inclusive economic growth can occur,” said Rina Mardiana, of the university’s Faculty of Ecology.

Meanwhile, a study of five customary forests – including the Ogoney’s – last year found the process has created “opportunities for women” in local politics.

Women in one tribe in Sumatra, on the western end of the Indonesian archipelago, successfully improved gender equality in forest management by forming women’s groups. But the success is not widespread. Women often require permission from male relatives to use forest products, for example. “Still women’s voices are not taken into account,” said Abby Gina Boang Manalu, the lead author of the study.

Research suggests recognition of customary land has also elevated the role of women within communities. Image by Peter Yeung/Al Jazeera. Indonesia, 2023.

Going forward, critics say that the government must ramp up the speed and scale of recognition.

According to a report in March by the Ancestral Domain Registration Agency (BRWA), an Indonesian nonprofit, there 25.1 million hectares (96,912 square miles) of potential customary forest, but only 3.2 million hectares (12,366 square miles), or 12.7 percent, has been recognised by local government – the final step before national government passes recognition.

“It’s not enough,” said Tania Li, a professor of anthropology at Toronto University and expert in Indonesia’s Indigenous peoples’ movement. “It’s not happening at the scale required. It has to move at least as fast to even catch up with the backlog.”

Li points to the tens of millions of hectares of concessions that have been granted for palm oil, logging and mining, particularly in Papua, where Indigenous land rights face a difficult and complicated political backdrop due to a long-simmering separatist conflict.

“This is a decisive moment,” added Li. “Does Indonesia really want to protect its forests and Indigenous peoples, or does it want profits and power?”
New funding

Even for the Ogoney, concerns linger post-recognition. Several clan members held a protest at the logging company PASKA’s site in 2019 after it allegedly failed to build homes, water wells and toilets for the community as promised. While the company has stopped operating on their land since its permit lapsed, the damage is still being felt. “The water has become muddy, it’s hard to find fish,” said Julianus Ogoney, 29.

PASKA did not respond to requests for comment.

The Ministry of Environment and Forestry told Al Jazeera it is working to speed up its process of recognition.

“There is a great reason to support Indigenous peoples,” said Yuli Prasetyo, deputy director of the ministry’s customary forest programme. “They know how to best protect and manage their lands. We can all learn from them.”

Rosalina Ogoney says the Ogoney practise shifting cultivation, allowing the forest to thrive. Image by Peter Yeung/Al Jazeera. Indonesia, 2023.

Those efforts received a major boost in May when international donors launched the Nusantara Fund, which will provide up to $20m over the next decade in what is Indonesia’s first direct funding mechanism for Indigenous peoples and local communities.

Back in West Papua, the dawn of a new age of Indigenous empowerment could be on the horizon. And while some of the Ogoney opposed Yustina when she became the first female head of the district, they have since changed their minds.

“Male elders said I was not capable enough,” said Yustina, pacing along a dirt trail in the rainforest wearing a technicolour headdress, dogtooth necklace, and handwoven cloth sarong handed down from her mother.

“I did not respond or acknowledge them. Instead, I worked hard. They have stopped questioning me now.”

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Credit: Nathan Lewis / Getty Images

El Niño has been declared by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, marking the start of a natural climate phenomenon that will influence weather patterns right across the Pacific Ocean.

In a statement, NOAA said “El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the winter”. It suggests there is an 84% chance of a moderate El Niño by the start of the northern hemisphere winter and a 56% chance of a strong event.

Normally, trade winds in the eastern Pacific Ocean push warm water at the ocean’s surface west towards Asia and Australia. This causes cold water from the ocean’s depths to rise near South America.

El Niño – sometimes described as the Southern Oscillation or El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle – occurs when these trade winds diminish, causing warm water to be pushed back toward the Americas.

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Explainer: El Niño, La Niña, Indian Ocean Dipole

El Niño typically changes weather patterns across many nations in or along the Pacific.


El Niño 70% likely according to Australian weather bureau

Wetter than average conditions become more likely for America’s southwest coast and along the Gulf of Mexico, while the northern US could be expected to have warmer winters and reduced rainfall from the Pacific Northwest across to the Ohio Valley.

Scientists are also increasingly warning of the effect climate change may have on climate phenomena.

“Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Niño,” says Michelle L’Heureux from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

“For example, El Niño could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Niño.” 

For southern hemisphere regions, El Niño can present different conditions. For South American countries along the Pacific coast like Ecuador and Peru, it’s typically associated with increased rainfall and flooding. Some parts of central Chile may also experience increased precipitation.

It’s a different story in Australia and Asia where El Niño generally means reduced end-of-year rainfall. That’s bad news for southern parts of Australia that typically expect hot summers and encounter far drier conditions, and heightened fire and overnight frost risk.

Earlier this week, Australia’s weather bureau upgraded its El Niño watch status, but is yet to formally declare the emergence of the climate event.

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Tesla's EV charging model effectively becomes US standard after GM, Ford deal

The deal was initially made between Ford and Tesla -- now GM is joining in.

Written by Maria Diaz, Staff Writer on June 9, 2023

ZDNET

SOPA Images/Getty Images

General Motors (GM) and Ford have both officially made deals with Tesla that will allow their electric vehicle (EV) customers to access the Tesla Supercharger network in North America as soon as 2024.

The deal allows GM and Ford, current makers of more affordable electric vehicles, to manufacture EVs equipped with Tesla's proprietary charging standard and gives these vehicles access to the largest network of EV charging stations in the US.

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This will include over 12,000 Tesla charging stations that account for about 60% of the total number of fast chargers in North America.

As Tesla, GM, and Ford manufacture 70% of the EVs in the US, the adoption of the same charging technology effectively makes Tesla's charging system the new standard in the US. and, possibly, all of North America.

During a Twitter Spaces talk when the Ford deal was announced in May, Tesla CEO Elon Musk explained the motivation behind the deal: "The idea is that we don't want the Tesla supercharger network to be like a walled garden. We want it to be something that is supportive of electrification and sustainable transport in general."

Making the Tesla charging technology the standard in the US also stands to make the company extra profit. After the deals were announced, Tesla's shares were up 5.8% on Friday, while GM's also went up 3.1%. Financial experts at Piper Sandler & Co said Tesla stands to make up to $3 billion by 2030 as a result of the deals.

Ford will equip its future EVs with Tesla's charging system starting in 2025, but a Tesla-developed adapter will provide vehicles that use the Combined Charging System (CCS) access to the Tesla Supercharger network. Now, GM is joining in on the endeavor.

"I think this is just going to be a fundamentally great thing for the advancement of electric vehicles," Musk shared during another Spaces conversation to announce the GM deal.

In recent years, EV users and industry executives pointed to different charging systems as a barrier for the widespread adoption of electric vehicles.

Though the Biden administration had pushed for the adoption of the CCS that rivaled Tesla's system and was used by other EV manufacturers, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told CNBC in May that he believed the EV industry would eventually adopt a single standard, but adapters would allow interoperability.

ALL CAPITALI$M IS STATE CAPITALI$M

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Picture: Michael Buholzer/Keystone/AP

FRI, 09 JUN, 2023 - 
MARION HALFTERMEYER

UBS sealed an agreement with the Swiss government to cover 9bn francs (€9.2bn) of losses it could incur from the rescue of Credit Suisse Group, clearing the last major hurdle to closing the historic takeover.

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The deal removes one of the final blockages to the $3.3bn (€3bn) takeover, which was brokered by the government in March as Credit Suisse hurtled toward bankruptcy. UBS had pushed for protection from hard-to-predict losses from a set of its former rival’s assets it plans to wind down or sell. With the government accord now in place, the merger may close as soon as Monday, creating a financial titan twice the size of the Swiss economy.

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FIFA Women's World Cup's new payment model revealed, ticket sales surpass 1 million

CGTN


World football's governing body FIFA on Friday announced its new member association distribution model for the FIFA Women's World Cup 2023 in Australia and New Zealand, with at least $30,000 to be distributed to each player for participating in the tournament.

According to the financial allocation, each player will receive $30,000 for the group stage, while the champions will receive $270,000 for each player. The prize money for players from the last 16 to those finishing as runners-up will vary from $60,000 to $195,000.

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"Under this unprecedented new distribution model, each individual player at the FIFA Women's World Cup 2023 can now fully rely on remuneration for their efforts as they progress through the tournament," said FIFA president Gianni Infantino.

Each participating member association will get at least $1.56 million, with the winners set to receive $4.29 million.

According to FIFA, its total investment in the FIFA Women's World Cup 2023 is budgeted to exceed $500 million.

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But various actions by the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including inflammatory rhetoric from far-right cabinet ministers and an incident in April when Israeli police stormed Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, have caused concern throughout the Arab world.

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In the past month there have been several attacks on Christian priests and pilgrims in Jerusalem, suspected to have been carried out by Jewish extremist groups.

In a tweet on Thursday, Ms Lipstadt condemned these attacks, saying: “Christians, Jews and Muslims alike should feel welcome in Jerusalem and throughout the Holy Land.”

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“That there is a longer haul socially and politically is not surprising, because you can change economic relations much more easily than you can change people’s attitudes, ideas and perceptions.”

 

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Russia will officially pull out of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) on Nov. 7 this year, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Friday.

As required, Russia has notified all participants of the CFE of its decision to withdraw from the treaty and its departure will come into force 150 days after the notification, the ministry said in a statement.

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The Complex Relationship Between Populism and the Economy: A Delicate Balancing Act

June 10, 2023
By Syeda Nida Fatima

MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU

Populism on both the right and left has spread like wildfire over the world. The drive reached its apex in the United States with Trump’s election, but it has been a force in Europe since the Great Recession threw the European economy into a lengthy tailspin. Populism is a political philosophy that demonizes economic and political elites while lionizing ‘the people.’ Populists of all shades argue that the people must recapture power from the unaccountable elites who made them impotent.

Populism has emerged as a powerful force in contemporary politics, challenging long-held political norms and institutions. The appeal to economic concerns and complaints is a crucial feature of populist movements. The link between populism and the economy, on the other hand, is intricate and diverse. During periods of economic instability or stagnation, populism frequently arises, tapping on the frustrations and worries of marginalized people. the economic instability refers to an economy that lacks certainty or equilibrium, such as high unemployment rates, poor economic development, or unpredictable financial markets. Populist leaders and groups are skilled at exploiting economic complaints and presenting them as the consequence of an inefficient or corrupt elite. They present themselves as defenders of the “common people” or marginalized groups who have been left behind by the current political and economic elite. They provide simplified solutions to complicated economic problems, vowing to protect people’s interests against perceived dangers presented by global entities such as globalization, immigration, or multinational businesses.

It is crucial to remember that economic insecurity or stagnation does not always result in the emergence of populism. Other variables, such as cultural fears, identity politics, and a lack of faith in institutions, all contribute to the creation of a climate favorable to populist movements. The economic factor, on the other hand, is frequently a substantial motivator since it directly affects people’s livelihoods and ambitions.

Populist policies and language can have serious consequences for economic stability, development, and long-term viability. To understand its implications for society and policymaking, this delicate balancing act between populism and the economy must be carefully examined.

Economic Dissatisfaction and the Rise of Populism

Populist groups frequently garner support by focusing on economic dissatisfaction in society. These complaints may be the result of a variety of issues, including wage stagnation, job insecurity, economic inequality, and the belief that conventional political elites have not effectively addressed these issues. Populist leaders are skilled at capitalizing on these resentments by pledging quick and dramatic fixes that appeal to disenchanted people.

Populist economic policies

Populist economic policies are frequently put in place once populist politicians are in charge in order to solve the issues that brought them to power. These regulations might be very varied from one country to another, reflecting the diversity of populist movements worldwide. Protectionism, trade restrictions, and more government involvement in the economy are some characteristics of populist economic policy. These actions are frequently justified as defending the rights of the “common people” in the face of multinational companies and powerful global elites.

Long-Term Economic Effects and Short-Term Populist Gains:

Populist measures may improve the short term and placate disenchanted people, but they can harm the economy in the long run. For instance, protectionist policies may shelter domestic sectors from competition in the near term, but they eventually stifle effectiveness, innovation, and competitiveness. Increased government involvement may result in corruption, inefficiency, and a suppression of the expansion of the private sector.

The Effects on Investor Confidence and Market Stability

Populist discourse and actions may also significantly affect investor confidence and market stability. Populist politicians frequently take on established financial and economic institutions like central banks, which can increase volatility and uncertainty. When political factors appear to be driving policy decisions rather than strong economic realities, investors may be reluctant to commit capital.

Inclusive growth vs. Protectionism

If it is feasible to achieve inclusive economic development while assuaging populist attitudes, that would be a key question in the populist-economic nexus. Opponents contend that populist policies frequently priorities instant gratification and protectionism, which may eventually impede broad-based prosperity and deepen inequality. For nations battling populism, striking the correct balance between addressing valid economic concerns and pursuing long-term, sustainable economic policy is a vital task.

The Importance of Education and Economic Literacy

A diversified strategy is needed to address the complicated link between populism and the economy. Increasing economic literacy and spreading education on the advantages of free trade, open markets, and globalization might help dispel the oversimplified myths sometimes spread by populist groups. Societies may promote a more educated and nuanced public dialogue by providing people with the means to comprehend and critically analyses economic concerns.

Conclusion

The complex interrelationship between populism and the economy emphasizes the need of having a thorough grasp of the motivations and outcomes of populist movements. Because it plays on the frustrations and worries of marginalized groups who feel left behind by the current political and economic system, populism frequently gains support during periods of economic instability. Populist leaders can appeal to disillusioned people by capitalizing on economic concerns and promising quick, radical answers.

Economic stability, growth, and societal well-being may be significantly impacted in the long run by populist economic policies and rhetoric. While populist initiatives may temporarily alleviate problems and placate irate people, they frequently overlook factors like long-term sustainability, effectiveness, and competitiveness. Economic development, investment, and innovation can be hampered by protectionist trade policies, increasing government interference, and a contempt for economic competence.

In conclusion, it is important to carefully evaluate and take a balanced approach to the topic of populism and the economy. While economic resentments might contribute to the growth of populism, the economic effects of populist measures must be considered over the long run.

Suggestions

A broad strategy that tackles both the underlying economic complaints and supports sustainable economic policies is necessary to handle the complex problems surrounding populism and the economy. Here are some tips for overcoming these obstacles

Addressing Economic Inequality

Governments should implement policies that promote inclusive economic growth and reduce income inequality.

Strengthening Institutions

Upholding the integrity and independence of democratic institutions is crucial in countering populist tendencies. Strong institutions can help rebuild trust and confidence in the political and economic system, mitigating the appeal of populism.

Promoting Dialogue and Engagement

To address the concerns of marginalized groups, it is essential to engage in open and constructive dialogue.

Strengthening Economic Literacy

Enhancing economic literacy among the general population is critical.

Promoting International Cooperation

Global challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and economic interdependence require collaborative solutions. Governments should prioritize international cooperation and engage in constructive dialogue to address these challenges collectively. By demonstrating the benefits of global engagement and cooperation, societies can counter the isolationist and protectionist tendencies often associated with populism.

Societies may overcome the problems presented by populism while supporting sustainable economic development and social cohesion by resolving economic complaints, advocating inclusive policies, and creating a feeling of economic security and opportunity.

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Which Jobs and Industries will Artificial Intelligence Replace First?

June 10, 2023
By Ilgar Nagiyev

MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU


You could be forgiven for feeling blindsided by the speed at which artificial intelligence has moved from technology of the future, to the here and now. Its rise has been so fast and sudden it’s outpaced even questions on its safety and controlling philosophy, leaving technology pioneers like Elon Musk and Steve Wozniak to call for a six-month pause in its development while these are considered.

As altruistic as this sounds, its unlikely to happen; companies do not give up a competitive edge when they have a significant jump over their rivals. The seriousness with which it is being taken, however, has poured napalm on the fire of what AI can do for us and specifically which industries it will affect first or potentially replace entirely.

First, an important point; no industry or occupation will be devastated overnight. That would require immediate and total acceptance from millions of people across multiple, distinct industries combined with a near unprecedented wave of investment. Artificial intelligence, however, is an earthquake that has already kick-started a tsunami of change. This wave will inevitably surge outward and some at sea level are going to be impacted first.

So where will the tsunami land?

No one can answer that for sure, but there are certain industries that are particularly vulnerable to AI encroachment. One of those, in a case of a machine replacing its creator in microcosm, are those working in IT, computer sciences and software engineering. A large software project can involve dozens, if not hundreds of human developers, each using slightly different code. The overall project, meanwhile, is broken down into separate goals, known as sprints and those sprints into separate tasks, known as tickets. These are overseen by senior developers and the resulting code tested by quality assurance teams to ensure that it works exactly as planned. In theory AI could replace many of those involved.

Next, the success of ChatGPT has proved the viability of large language model AI. This family of artificial intelligence is set to replace a significant number of customer service staff, with chatbots already providing assistance and filtering of calls. An argument against their use, is the lack of empathy a good customer service representative possesses. An argument for, is that they are always professional because that is what they are programmed to be and don’t suffer from staff retention issues. More than that, they will soon be substantially cheaper than a human workforce and that is not something employers are likely to overlook.

Further inland, the next industries replacement will not be imminent, but the cliff on which it sits on will soon face erosion – transportation. Globally there is a well-documented shortfall in trained drivers that coincides with a massive investment in self-driving vehicles. Major players in this field include Tesla, Uber, Ford and Mercedes Benz, but to date, they have faced problems, often publicly, such as the Tesla S that crashed in 2022 while in full self-drive mode. In 2022 alone there were four-hundred cases of autonomous vehicle crashes, all of which affected its perception.

Fusing self-drive technology with a controlling AI has the potential to make it far safer and remove the need for human drivers entirely in areas like haulage and logistics. This will not happen quickly; the public first need to accept and trust the technology. Likewise, significant investment in infrastructure will be required, raising the cost in the short term. In the mid to long term, however, AI can offer spatial perception, anticipation of potential hazards and split-second decision making at levels that far supersede a human and never get tired, sick or hungry. Added to the temptation of a massively reduced wage cost, this is likely to prove irresistible.

And the list goes on.

AI in agriculture can provide predictive analytics in real time, maximising a farms efficiency, potentially alongside day-to-day tasks like planting, harvesting, spraying, livestock monitoring and minimising negative impact on the environment. It will also require fewer human workers. The same applies to manufacturing, where AI is only likely to continue the reduction of human involvement that robotics began.

Another within the long-term path of AI could well be healthcare. More than most this would require significant buy-in from the public, but is it too much to imagine an AI carrying out many of the tasks within an overstretched, expensive and unwieldy medical system? Incrementally we are likely to see AI replace highly skilled professionals in areas like medical imaging and data analysis, all the way through to the real time monitoring of patients. It isn’t science fiction anymore to imagine AI doctors kept up to date instantly with new techniques and emerging science.

The list gets longer every day as the reckoning with AI’s potential continues: journalism, graphic design, law, education and many more could soon find themselves within its path. Where it leads is likely to be equal parts, challenging, threatening, fascinating and enduring.

Ilgar Nagiyev is an Azerbaijani entrepreneur, Chairman of the Board at Azer Maya, leading producer of nutritional yeast in Azerbaijan, and Chairman of the Board of Baku City Residence, a real-estate company. He is an alumnus of both the London School of Economics and Political Sciences and TRIUM Global Executive MBA.

The race to detect AI can be won


As regulation faces growing challenges, detection technology could provide a crucial edge for mitigating the potential risks of generative AI tools.

Synthetic audio technology or "voice clones" pose a serious threat to the public | iStock

BY JAN NICOLA BEYER
JUNE 10, 2023 
Jan Nicola Beyer is the research coordinator of the Digital Democracy unit at Democracy Reporting International.

The debate over the risks of generative artificial intelligence (AI) is currently in full swing.

On the one hand, advocates of the model for generative AI tools praise their potential to drive productivity gains not witnessed since the Industrial Revolution. On the other, there’s a growing chorus raising concerns regarding the potential dangers that these tools pose.

While there have been ample calls for regulating, or even stalling, new AI technology development, however, there’s a whole other dimension that appears to be missing from the debate — detection.

When compared with regulation, investing in technologies that discern between human and machine-generated content — such as DetectGPT and GPTZero for text, and AI Image Detector for visuals — may be seen by some as a substandard solution. As regulation will face insurmountable challenges, however, detection can offer a promising avenue for mitigating AI’s potential risks.

It’s undeniable that generative AI has the potential to enhance creativity and increase productivity. Yet, losing the ability to distinguish between natural and synthetic content could also empower nefarious actors. From simple forms of plagiarism in schools and universities to the breach of electronic security systems and the launch of professional disinformation campaigns, the dangers behind machines writing text, drawing pictures or making videos are manifold.

All these threats call for a response — not only a legal one but a technical one too. Yet, such technical solutions don’t receive the support they should.

Currently, funds allocated to new generative tools vastly outweigh investment in detection. Microsoft alone invested a whopping $10 billion in OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT. To put that in perspective, the total European expenditure on AI is estimated at approximately $21 billion, and given that detection hasn’t featured strongly in the public debate, only a small fraction of this sum can be assumed to be directed toward this purpose.

But in order to mitigate this imbalance, we can’t simply rely on the industry to step up.

Private businesses are unlikely to match funds allocated for detection with their expenditure on generative AI, as profits from detecting generative output aren’t likely to be anywhere near as lucrative as those for developing new creative tools. And even in cases where lucrative investment opportunities for detection tools exist, specialized products will rarely reach the hands of the public.

Synthetic audio technology is a good example of this. Even though so-called voice clones pose a serious threat to the public — especially when used to impersonate politicians or public figures — private companies prioritize other concerns, such as detection mechanisms aimed at security systems in banks to prevent fraud. And developers of such tech have little interest in sharing their source code, as it would encourage attempts to bypass their security systems.

Meanwhile, lawmakers have so far emphasized the regulation of AI content over research funding for detection. The European Union, for example, has taken up the effort of regulation via the AI Act, a regulatory framework aimed at ensuring the responsible and ethical development and use of AI. Nevertheless, finding the right balance between containing high-risk technology and allowing for innovation is proving challenging.

Additionally, it remains to be seen whether effective regulation can even be achieved.

While ChatGPT may be subject to legal oversight because it was developed by OpenAI — an organization that can be held legally accountable — the same cannot be said for smaller projects creating large-language models (LLMs), which are the algorithms that underpin tools like ChatGPT. Using Meta’s LLaMA model, for example, Stanford University researchers were able to create their own LLM with similar performance to ChatGPT for the cost of only $600. This case demonstrates that other LLMs can be built rather easily and cheaply on already existing models and avoid self-regulation — an attractive option for criminals or disinformation actors. And in such instances, legal accountability may be quite impossible.

Robust detection mechanisms thus present a viable solution to gain an edge in the ever-evolving arms race against generative AI tools.


Already at the forefront of fighting disinformation and having pledged massive investments in AI, this is where the EU should lead in providing research funding. And the good news is that it isn’t even necessary to match the amount of funding dedicated to the development of generative AI tools and the money spent on developing tools that facilitate their detection. As a general rule, detection tools don’t require large amounts of scraped data and don’t have the high training costs associated with recent LLMs.

Nevertheless, as the models underlying generative AI advance, detection technology will need to keep pace as well. Additionally, detection mechanisms may also require the cooperation of domain experts too. When it comes to synthetic audio, for example, it’s necessary for machine learning engineers to collaborate with linguists and other researchers in order for such tools to be effective, and provided research funding should facilitate such collaborations.

COVID-19 showed the world states can drive innovation that can help overcome crises when needed. And governments have a role to play in ensuring the public is protected from potentially harmful AI content — investing in the detection of generative AI output is one way to do this.

RIP

Ted Kaczynski, who planted fear and death as the Unabomber, dies at 81

Living in isolation, he acted on his hatred of technology and science, killing three people and injuring two dozen others


By Paul W. Valentine
Updated June 10, 2023 

Convicted ‘Unabomber’ Ted Kaczynski dead at 81
1:28

Ted Kacyznski, who came to be known as the Unabomber, died on June 10

 (Video: Reuters)

For 17 years, he picked his victims with cold deliberation, leaving a grisly trail of nail- and razor-blade-packed pipe bombs across the nation that killed three people and injured 23 others, several of them maimed for life.

He knew none of his victims and struck unpredictably from coast to coast in seemingly random acts from 1978 to 1995, baffling law enforcement officers and gripping the country in a kind of menacing unease — until his capture in early 1996 in the remote mountains of Montana.

There, Ted Kaczynski, the scrawny, bearded anti-technology anarchist popularly known as the Unabomber, surrendered peacefully at the primitive plywood cabin he had called home for 25 years. He was escorted by federal agents through slushy snow down a backwoods road to the main highway and, ultimately, to prison for the rest of his life.

The Harvard-trained mathematics prodigy turned lone serial bomber died June 10 at a federal prison medical facility in Butner, N.C. He was 81. Kristie Breshears, a spokeswoman for the Bureau of Prisons, said Mr. Kaczynski “was found unresponsive in his cell” and was pronounced dead at 8 a.m.

In December 2021, the Federal Bureau of Prisons announced that Mr. Kaczynski was moved to the North Carolina compound from a supermax prison in Florence, Colo.

In letters and a massive 35,000-word manifesto, Mr. Kaczynski freely acknowledged his acts and called them necessary to save humanity from itself.

“Science marches on blindly, without regard to the real welfare of the human race,” he wrote in the manifesto, tapped out on a battered typewriter in his mountain cabin and then sent to The Washington Post and New York Times with a demand to print it or risk further attacks.

At another point, using the plural “we” and “our” to suggest, falsely, that he had collaborators, he wrote: “To get our message before the public with some chance of making a lasting impression, we’ve had to kill people.”

Under pressure from federal authorities, The Post and the Times agreed to jointly print the manifesto in a special section of The Post in September 1995. It was an agonizing decision, but as Times publisher Arthur O. Sulzberger Jr. said at the time, “This is not a First Amendment issue. This centers on the role of a newspaper as part of a community.”

The papers consulted with FBI Director Louis J. Freeh and Attorney General Janet Reno. Both recommended publication in the uncertain hope it would stop the attacks and possibly lead to the Unabomber’s discovery. The decision paid off. There were no more bombings, and Mr. Kaczynski was in custody within seven months, identified by his brother.

Alston Chase, an author and longtime Unabomber researcher, described Mr. Kaczynski’s thinking as having evolved from his days at Harvard in the early 1960s.

For Mr. Kaczynski, Chase wrote in the June 2000 Atlantic magazine, “Technology and science were destroying liberty and nature. The system, of which Harvard was a part, served technology, which in turn required conformism. By advertising, propaganda and other techniques of behavior modification, this system sought to transform men into automatons, to serve the machine.”

In the manifesto and letters, Mr. Kaczynski blamed his parents for raising him in social isolation. His sense of rejection, he said, caused him to spurn authority and develop a belief that modern technology was destroying the natural world and usurping human autonomy.

“Electricity, indoor plumbing, rapid long-distance communications … how could one argue against any of these things?” he asked in the manifesto. “[Yet] all these technical advances taken together have created a world in which the average man’s fate is no longer in his own hands … but in those of politicians, corporate executives and remote, anonymous technicians and bureaucrats whom he as an individual has no power to influence.”

As it turned out, the Unabomber’s targets were not randomly chosen but were specific individuals he associated with technology and the destroyers of nature, including a computer scientist, an advertising executive, an airline president and a timber industry lobbyist.

In some cases, his bombs, concealed in scrupulously crafted wooden boxes, were misdelivered or intercepted innocently by others. Mr. Kaczynski went to great effort to elude detection, erasing identification marks from bomb parts, even avoiding licking postage stamps to prevent DNA matching.

Tracking down the Unabomber led to one of the nation’s longest and most expensive investigations. Then came years of research tracing his habits, propensities and psychological markers. Still, a veil of mystery remained over the ultimate purpose of his acts beyond simple anger at a world that wouldn’t listen to him.

A moody and withdrawn child

Theodore John Kaczynski was born May 22, 1942, in Chicago, where his father helped run the family’s successful sausage-making plant.

Early on, there were signs that Ted was different. Hospitalized in isolation at nine months for severe allergic reactions, the once-alert baby returned home moody and withdrawn, his mother, Wanda, later said.

In 1952, three years after his brother, David, was born, the family moved to Evergreen Park, a conservative, lower-middle-class suburb just south of Chicago, where the Kaczynskis were a family apart.

An image from WBBM-TV Chicago shows a high school yearbook photo of Mr. Kaczynski in 1958. (WBBM-TV Chicago/AFP/Getty Images)

Although he was raised Roman Catholic like most of the neighbors, his parents were atheists, pursued liberal causes and often kept their children inside to read and do homework while other youngsters played outside. They emphasized academic excellence.

Ted, bookish and socially awkward, scored at genius level, between 160 and 170 on IQ tests. He skipped the sixth and 11th grades and was admitted to Harvard on a scholarship at 16.

There, his isolation deepened. He was physically and emotionally younger than his classmates, and a social gulf divided public high school graduates like himself and the dominant private-school crowd on campus. He interacted little with others and took a single room.

He participated in a study — part of the controversial Project MKUltra “mind-control” experiments of the 1950s led by Harvard psychologist Henry A. Murray and backed by the CIA — to measure the effects of extreme stress on student volunteers by subjecting them to unrelenting belittlement and humiliation.

Mr. Kaczynski graduated in 1962 with a degree in mathematics and moved on to the University of Michigan, where in five years he completed a doctorate in mathematics and landed a tenure-track teaching post at the University of California at Berkeley.

But he abruptly quit in 1969 and, two years later, cobbled together the money to buy a small lot near Lincoln, Mont. He built a single-room cabin with no electricity or running water. He tended a vegetable garden and hunted small game. He enriched the garden with compost from his own waste.

He rode a homemade bicycle into Lincoln for supplies and to visit the local library, where he read newspapers. Shelves in his cabin were crammed with books — from 19th-century classics to obscure tomes of political science. He seldom worked for pay and relied on small sums from his family for minimal needs and occasional travel.

In the cabin, he also started planning his serial terrorist attacks, the first of which involved a crude, low-impact device that went off in May 1978 at Northwestern University in Evanston, Ill., and injured a campus security guard.

A second bomb went off at Northwestern in May 1979, leaving a student with minor cuts and burns. But a third, which exploded in November 1979 in the hold of an American Airlines flight from Chicago to Washington, D.C., forced the plane to make an emergency landing. Twelve passengers were treated for smoke inhalation.

The FBI ramped up its investigation, noting similarities in the components of the three bombs. The bureau formed a special task force called UNABOM, so named because the early targets were a university and an airline. The media dubbed the unknown suspect the “Unabomber.”

Over the next 15 years, he unleashed 13 more bombs, killing three people and injuring nine — including the president of United Airlines, three professors and a geneticist — with increasingly sophisticated wiring, detonators and explosive materials. He also began leaving a unique signature, the letters “FC” imprinted on bomb parts found by investigators at blast scenes.

A six-year lull in the bombings occurred after a witness spotted a man in a hooded jacket and aviator glasses leaving a suspicious package outside a computer store in Salt Lake City in February 1987.

Personal property that once belonged to Mr. Kaczynski, also known as the Unabomber, are displayed for an online auction with proceeds to benefit victims' families in 2011. (David Goldman/AP)

When the package exploded, severely injuring the store owner, authorities circulated a flier nationwide depicting the suspect. Investigators speculated that the move spooked the Unabomber, causing him to lie low before resuming activities in 1993.

In September 1995, he sent his manifesto, titled “Industrial Society and Its Future,” to The Post and the Times. He also disclosed that “FC” stood for Freedom Club, suggesting vaguely that it was an anarchist group helping him.

Industrial Society and Its Future

University of California, Davis

https://web.cs.ucdavis.edu › classes › materials

PDF

The Industrial Revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race. They have greatly increased the life-expectancy of those of us who ...

58 pages

The rambling prose seemed eerily familiar to David Kaczynski, a social worker at an Albany, N.Y., shelter for runaway youths. He began to suspect, reluctantly, that his brother was the Unabomber. Pushed by his wife, Linda, through “thick layers of dread and denial,” he saw similarities between the manifesto and some of Mr. Kaczynski’s earlier writings, according to David’s 2016 memoir, “Every Last Tie.”

David took his suspicions to the FBI, and analysts quickly spotted close parallels in phraseology, even misspellings. Directed by David, agents massed at the cabin in the Montana woods on April 3, 1996, and took Mr. Kaczynski into custody. Inside the cabin, they found a cache of bombmaking components. David received the FBI’s $1 million reward and said he would use it to aid families who suffered because of his brother’s actions.

The investigation and prosecution of Mr. Kaczynski was supervised by Merrick Garland, now the attorney general.

On Jan. 22, 1998, after extensive legal jockeying to avoid both the death penalty and an insanity defense, Mr. Kaczynski pleaded guilty and acknowledged all 16 bombings and the deaths and injuries they caused. Unrepentant, he was sentenced to four consecutive life terms plus 30 years by U.S. District Judge Garland E. Burrell Jr. in Sacramento.

Information on survivors was not immediately available.

Wanda Kaczynski, pondering the fate of her son, wondered in her later years how his life could have been different. “What could I have done to keep him out of the wilderness?” she asked in an interview with The Post in June 1996. “What could I have done to give him a happier life? … I just don’t know.”