Interview

‘Once the fighting gets intense, it's almost impossible to do peacebuilding’

Monday marks one year since the Hamas-led series of attacks on Israel and the beginning of Israel’s retaliatory war in Gaza, which has unfolded along with a rise in settler attacks in the occupied West Bank. The spiralling violence has spurred renewed calls for a two-state solution. FRANCE 24 spoke to John Marks, the founder of Search for Common Ground, an organisation that has worked on peacebuilding in the region for decades, to find out how future efforts might unfold.


Issued on: 07/10/2024 -

A Palestinian man walks near the Dome of the Rock in the Al-Aqsa compound, also known to Jews as the Temple Mount, in Jerusalem's Old City on September 17, 2024.

 © Ammar Awad, Reuters

By:Philippe THEISE

Search for Common Ground began working on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in 1991. It brought together former officials from Israel, Arab countries, Iran and Turkey for a series of meetings in Rome which led to discussions between Israeli and Jordanian ex-generals in the months before Israel and Jordan signed a 1994 peace agreement

Marks is the author of three books and a former State Department employee who left his post after the US invaded Cambodia in 1970.

FRANCE 24 spoke to John Marks about his work on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and elsewhere, and what he thinks it will take to make progress towards peace in the future.

FRANCE 24: What do you think successful peacebuilding efforts between Israel and the Palestinian Territories will look like in the future?

John Marks: Peacebuilding works much better before the violence starts. Once the fighting gets as intense as the kind of stuff that’s going on right now, it's almost impossible to do the kind of activities that I'm talking about.

FRANCE 24: One of the principles in your new book is to “make yesable propositions”. Several European countries have formally recognised a Palestinian state, and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has said he wants to help bring about a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. How do you see these third-party efforts on propositions that may not be “yesable” for the primary parties involved?

John Marks: My guess is official efforts from Europe at this point are probably not going to be so successful, and that the key to the outside third parties is the United States. And probably … the only way that the United States could have an influence now on Israel in a major way is to cut off weapons.

[That] would probably get the attention of the Israelis. They might be more inclined to … stop fighting in Gaza. Make peace in Lebanon. I don't know of anything else that would stop it right now.

FRANCE 24: Is there any peacebuilding work you see taking place in Israel and the Palestinian Territories that gives you hope?

John Marks: I don’t see any in the Israeli-Palestinian context. There's stuff going on, but it's overwhelmed by the armed violence. I felt my organisation made real progress in the [Democratic Republic of] Congo, in Burundi, in the Ivory Coast. But in Israel and Palestine, I don't see it.

FRANCE 24: What do you think makes Israel and the Palestinian Territories different than those places?

John Marks: I remember we had a film festival in Jerusalem where we showed a film that described the South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission. And I remember afterwards an Israeli saying to me, who was there, “that was wonderful, but we don't have the spirit of forgiveness here. We don't have that. That's not part of the culture.” I think that's one of the big problems they have. In South Africa, there was the spirit of Ubuntu: I am because you are. My existence comes from your existence. That was the underlying context of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, and that I've never seen existing in the Middle East.

FRANCE 24: Could you describe the experiences you have had since founding Search for Common Ground in 1982 that most inform your perspective on what peacebuilding in Israel and the Palestinian Territories requires?

John Marks: I learned if you had good facilitation and you treated everybody as an equal, you kept the playing field level, that you could have conversations that went well beyond what seemed to be possible on the diplomatic level.

The sessions between Jordanian and Israeli [former] generals came out of those first meetings. We were able to bring those people together to face the problem, and the problem was how to have peace between their two countries, as opposed to how to react as enemies. And the formulations they came up with were sent almost immediately to the prime minister of Israel and the king of Jordan, and when the final treaty was negotiated, the work that our retired generals had done was at the base of it.

They got it about, the eventual [peace] treaty, 75% right. And what they were able to show was it was possible to have an agreement that was in the interest of both countries.

FRANCE 24: Did the participants in those meetings come from civil society, or were they government employees or elected officials?

John Marks: They were all civilians, but many of them were former officials. We had retired generals, we had retired ambassadors. My staff and myself had gone to the region and talked to high-level political leaders, I mean at the level of Arafat and the prime minister of Israel at the time, and we had asked them, “Who should we invite to these meetings?” If the results were interesting, [we wanted to know who] could report directly to them. We didn’t want officials because officials are bound by official positions. But we wanted people who, if we came up with any interesting ideas, could talk to the highest echelon in their country. And that was one way we got the right people in the room.

[A] human rights group had human rights activists from Israel and the Arab countries, and it was a little bit of everything. The overall project was called "The Initiative for Peace and Cooperation in the Middle East".

FRANCE 24: In “a letter from our founder” on Search for Common Ground’s website, you write that the organisation has “had our share of setbacks”, and that “we have worked for many years in the Middle East, and despite our best efforts, violence has soared”. Can you talk more about that?

John Marks: The overall vision of the organisation was peace in the Middle East. We never achieved that, in fact over the last 25 years that we’ve been working there it’s gotten worse. But we had projects that were successful. Like helping to get the peace treaty between Israel and Jordan. We set up something called the Middle East Consortium on Infectious Disease Surveillance, which brought together medical authorities from Israel, Palestine and Jordan, and the motto was “Microbes don’t stop at checkpoints”. And we were able to encourage cooperation across borders on medical issues like swine flu. We were always looking for ways that the sides could agree, or issues on which they could agree.

In 2005, I personally wrote and produced a four-part documentary series on how to resolve the [Israeli-Palestinian] conflict. It was shown on Israeli television, Palestinian television and Abu Dhabi television. We had both Hebrew and Arabic and an English version. It didn’t bring peace, which I suppose was my ultimate objective with it. But we showed how the problem could be solved. And in vivid form. And we did it as much as possible from the right-wing perspective … that was part of our strategy.


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FRANCE 24: Why is that the strategy you chose?

John Marks: Everybody knows that the left, the progressives, want to have peace. And the blockage tends to be more on the conservative side of the political spectrum. In every country. And so by moving as far to the right as we possibly could, and still getting something that was promoting peaceful solutions to the problem, we felt it was more likely that we would be heard and listened to.

One of the main people we interviewed was the former head of the settlers’ association in Israel. And he had mixed views but he was able to talk about what the conditions were for peace. And on the Palestinian side, we had a former political prisoner … and we felt he would have credibility in a way that a more moderate Palestinian wouldn’t. He was somebody who had been involved in armed violence against the Israeli politics and he served his time.

FRANCE 24: What do you think a win-win situation would look like for Israelis and Palestinians?

John Marks: A win-win would be a two-state solution.

Arrests at Amsterdam pro-Palestinian protest near Oct. 7 event

Amsterdam (AFP) – Police arrested several pro-Palestinian protesters in Amsterdam Monday, as tensions erupted around events in the city to mark the one-year anniversary of Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel.

Issued on: 07/10/2024 - 

Tensions ran high in Amsterdam around events to mark October 7 © Ramon van Flymen / ANP/AFP

Riot officers carrying shields and batons deployed in force in the Dutch capital as people gathered in the Dam central square to mourn those killed one year ago.

While the pro-Israeli group was listening to speeches and concerts, counter-demonstrators began to shout slogans.

Police grabbed one middle-aged woman and hauled her into an armoured van, an AFP journalist on the ground witnessed.

Nearby, police surrounded several dozen pro-Palestinian demonstrators with faces covered and waving flags, to keep them separated from the Israeli gathering.

Police warned them to disperse but later announced they had arrested the group "for breaking the law on public gatherings".

French tourists Myriam Acef, 23, and Ines Khraroubu, 21, told AFP: "We were there right at the beginning but we only stayed a bit because we quickly saw the police were surrounding everyone."

"We were pushed around a bit with shields and we were stuck for around 20-30 minutes," Acef said.

Prime Minister Dick Schoof and other top Dutch political leaders were attending commemorations in an Amsterdam synagogue to mark the October 7 attack.

Many had gathered to mark the October 7 Hamas attacks © Eva PLEVIER / ANP/AFP

Away from Amsterdam, pro-Palestinian protesters staged sit-ins at several stations around the country.

The October 7 attack resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

The attackers took 251 people hostage into Gaza, where 97 are still being held, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.

Hours later, Israel launched a military offensive that has razed swathes of Gaza and displaced nearly all of its 2.4 million residents at least once amid an unrelenting humanitarian crisis.

According to data provided by the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza, 41,909 Palestinians, the majority civilians, have been killed there since the start of the war. Those figures have been deemed reliable by the United Nations.

© 2024 AFP

UN biodiversity summit in Colombia aims to turn words into action

Paris (AFP) – Two years after a landmark UN-brokered deal to protect nature from a massive wave of destruction, delegates will gather at a new COP in Colombia in late October to assess their progress.

Issued on: 07/10/2024 -

The COP16 summit comes as Brazil and other Latin American countries struggle to emerge from one of the worst wildfire seasons in years © Raul ARBOLEDA / AFP/File

Representatives from some 200 countries are expected at the Oct. 21 to Nov. 1 COP16 biodiversity conference in the Colombian city of Cali.

The last Conference of the Parties or COP dedicated to biodiversity in Montreal in 2022 ended with a breakthrough agreement to protect 30 percent of the planet by 2030 from pollution, degradation and the climate crisis.

COP16 will assess the progress made and examine whether rich countries are making good on their promises to stump up $30 billion a year to help the developing world save its ecosystems.

The Cali conference, which takes place two weeks before the COP29 on climate change in Azerbaijan's capital Baku, will be "an implementation and financing COP," Hugo-Maria Schally, the European Union's lead negotiator at the talks in Cali, said.

Colombia, which is the world's most biodiverse country after Brazil, aims to use the summit to take a leadership role on protecting nature and combatting climate change.

"It's a Latin American moment," Colombian Environment Minister Susana Muhamad said at the United Nations in New York last month.

The summit comes as Brazil and other Latin American countries struggle to emerge from one of the worst wildfire seasons in years, blamed chiefly on rampant deforestation and climate change.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who will host next year's COP30 on climate change, and Mexico's new left-wing president Claudia Sheinbaum, are among a dozen leaders expected at the talks in Cali.

Restoring 30 percent of ecosystems

While hailed for giving Indigenous groups a leading role in protecting natural resources COP host Colombia faces major environmental challenges of its own.

Large areas of forest have been cleared for illicit coca plantations used in cocaine production.

Deforestation surged after an historic 2016 peace deal with the FARC rebel group, as former fighters turned to unregulated farming and ranching.

Those who object put their lives on the line.

Global Witness named Colombia the country with the most murders of land and environmental activists in 2022, with 60 people killed.

"COP16 is not going to be a big decision COP, but it's a particularly important one because it's the first opportunity since that agreement for countries to really signal their commitment," said Dilys Roe, a researcher at the International Institute for Environement and Development in London.

'30 by 30'

The agreement reached at the COP15 summit in Montreal in December 2022 -- the biodiversity equivalent of the Paris accord on climate change which seeks to limit long-term global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius -- was designed to guide global action on nature through 2030.

The headline goal was the "30 by 30" target -- ensuring 30 percent of land and sea areas are effectively conserved and managed by the end of this decade, up from 17 percent of land and around 8 percent of oceans in 2022.

Other targets included restoring 30 percent of degraded ecosystems, cutting environmentally destructive farming subsidies, reducing pesticide use and tackling invasive species.

Time is running out to halt the extinction of species.

According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), 70 percent of global ecosystems are already degraded.

The challenge for Colombia is to try to come up with a "credible" roadmap for reaching the targets set for 2030, Juliette Landry, senior researcher at France's Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations said.

The hosts have their work cut out for them.

So far only around 20 countries have submitted the updated national biodiversity strategy and action plans (NBSAPs) they committed to provide by COP16.

They have also fallen far short on their promise to increase financial aid to developing countries to $25 billion annually by 2025, rising to $30 billion in 2030.

So far, pledges to a new fund created for the purpose have reached only around $400 million, with only around half of that amount disbursed.

In Cali, developing countries are expected to pressure developed countries to dig deeper for the planet.

They in return are expected to demand that wealthy emerging markets like China also pay their share.

© 2024 AFP

UN warns world's water cycle becoming ever more erratic

Geneva (AFP) – Increasingly intense floods and droughts are a "distress signal" of what is to come as climate change makes the planet's water cycle ever more unpredictable, the United Nations warned Monday.

Issued on: 07/10/2024 - 

A shepherd leads his flock along the dried-up Studen Kladenets reservoir bed in southern Bulgaria in August © Nikolay DOYCHINOV / AFP

Last year the world's rivers were their driest for more than 30 years, glaciers suffered their largest loss of ice mass in half a century and there was also a "significant" number of floods, the UN's World Meteorological Organization said in a report.

"Water is the canary in the coalmine of climate change," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement accompanying the State of Global Water Resources report.

"We receive distress signals in the form of increasingly extreme rainfall, floods and droughts which wreak a heavy toll on lives, ecosystems and economies," she said.

Saulo said the heating up of the Earth's atmosphere had made the water cycle "more erratic and unpredictable.

Monsoon flooding hit Roshi village in Nepal's Kavre district in September © PRABIN RANABHAT / AFP

Last year was the hottest on record, with high temperatures and widespread dry conditions producing prolonged droughts.

There were also many floods around the world.

These extreme events were influenced in part by naturally-occurring climate conditions including the La Nina and El Nino weather phenomena -- but also and increasingly by human-induced climate change.

"A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which is conducive to heavy rainfall. More rapid evaporation and drying of soils worsen drought conditions," Saulo said.
Massive glacier melt

Water is either too abundant or insufficient, plunging many countries into increasingly difficult situations.

World Meteorological Organization chief Celeste Saulo © Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP

Last year, Africa was the most heavily impacted continent in terms of human casualties.

In Libya, two dams collapsed due to a major flood in September 2023, claiming more than 11,000 lives and affecting 22 percent of the population, according to the WMO.

Floods also hit the Greater Horn of Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Mozambique and Malawi.

Currently, 3.6 billion people have insufficient access to fresh water at least once a month per year, according to the UN. That figure is expected to rise to more than five billion by 2050.

For the past three years, more than 50 percent of river catchments have been drier than usual.

Meanwhile the inflow to reservoirs has been below normal in many parts of the world over the past half decade.

Rising temperatures also mean glaciers have melted at unprecedented rates, losing more than 600 billion tonnes of water, the worst in 50 years of observations, according to preliminary data for September 2022 to August 2023.

"Melting ice and glaciers threaten long-term water security for many millions of people. And yet we are not taking the necessary urgent action," Saulo said.

Switzerland's glaciers, including the Rhone glacier, shed 2.4 percent of their volume over the past year © Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP

In addition to curbing the man-made greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming, the WMO wants the world's fresh water resources to be monitored better, so early warning systems can reduce the damage to people and wildlife.

"We cannot manage what we do not measure," Saulo stressed.

Stefan Uhlenbrook, director of the WMO's hydrology, water and cryosphere department, stressed the importance of investing in infrastructure to preserve water and protect people from hazards.

But he also highlighted the need to conserve water, particularly for agriculture, which uses 70 percent of the world's fresh water consumption.

He warned returning to a more regular natural water cycle would be difficult.

"The only thing we can do is to stabilise the climate, which is a generational challenge," he said.

© 2024 AFP

In Utah, climate change denial persists as ‘America’s Dead Sea’ disappears


Issued on: 07/10/2024 - 16:27

Video by:Sam BALL

Utah’s Great Salt Lake, dubbed “America’s Dead Sea”, is the largest saltwater lake in the Western Hemisphere. But its days may be numbered, with two-thirds of the lake’s surface lost in forty years as a result, say scientists, of climate change and the overuse of water by agriculture and industry. But despite the impending environmental disaster, getting many locals to accept climate change is to blame in the conservative state has proved a challenge for campaigners, who also fear what another Donald Trump presidency would mean for the future of the lake.

‘Utterly irresponsible’: Harris slams DeSantis for blowing off hurricane phone call

Erik De La Garza
October 7, 2024

Kamala Harris live.staticflickr.com

Ripping Ron DeSantis as “selfish” and “utterly irresponsible,” Vice President Kamala Harris blamed political "gamesmanship" after reports emerged that the Florida governor has blown off her phone calls as Hurricane Milton churns in the Gulf of Mexico and takes aim at the Sunshine state.

“People are in desperate need of support right now and playing political games at this moment in these crisis situations… it is utterly irresponsible, and it is selfish and it is about political gamesmanship instead of doing the job that you took an oath to do, which is to put the people first.”

The comments came Monday afternoon outside Joint Base Andrews in response to a reporter's question about media reports surrounding DeSantis’ refusal to take Harris’ call offering assistance for the monster storm which intensified to Category 5 strength.

One DeSantis aide who spoke with NBC said that they did not want to take Harris's calls because they “seemed political.”

Harris dismissed those accusations Monday.

“Moments of crisis, if nothing else, should really be the moment that anyone who calls themselves a leader…puts politics aside and puts people first,” Harris told reporters.

The Democratic presidential nominee later slammed her opponent, former President Donald Trump, as “extraordinarily irresponsible” for spreading misinformation surrounding the hurricane.

Hurricane Milton is expected to leave a devastate Florida’s coast.

“I’d call this a Category 5 plus,” CNN meteorologist Chad Myers told viewers.

'We didn’t answer': DeSantis aide admits gov. is blowing off Harris' hurricane phone calls

Brad Reed
October 7, 2024 


Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris looks on during her campaign event, in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, U.S., September 13, 2024. REUTERS/Quinn Glabicki

Vice President Kamala Harris has been reaching out to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as yet another hurricane is barreling toward his state.

However, NBC News reports that DeSantis has been blowing off her calls.

One DeSantis aide who spoke with NBC said that they did not want to take Harris's calls because they "seemed political."

"Kamala was trying to reach out, and we didn't answer," the aide added.

The aide also said they had no knowledge of DeSantis talking with President Joe Biden, who reached out to the Florida governor last week without success.

DeSantis has, however, been talking directly with Federal Emergency Management Director Deanne Criswell.

ALSO READ: 'Tough spot': Investigation finds Trump's 'prized possession' sinking in massive debt

DeSantis' apparent reluctance to speak with Harris comes at a time when former President Donald Trump has been lobbing multiple false claims at the Biden administration for its handling of Hurricane Helene, which caused widespread devastation throughout the Southeastern United States more than a week ago.

Among other things, Trump falsely claimed that Biden had refused to talk with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp despite the fact that Kemp confirmed that he had personally spoken with Biden.

DeSantis Defends His Refusal To Take Kamala Harris's Phone Calls About Hurricanes Helene And Milton

Harris camp hits GOP lawmakers with brutal fact check as they claim FEMA not doing enough

Matthew Chapman

RAW STORY
October 7, 2024 

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia in Tampa, Florida in July 2022 (Gage Skidmore)

Republicans, driven by former President Donald Trump, have pushed unfounded claims for days that the Federal Emergency Management Agency has been absent on the ground in states devastated by Hurricane Helene, like North Carolina — and even asserted that the Biden administration raided FEMA's budget to shelter immigrants and denied relief to areas that vote Republican, none of which is true.

On Monday, Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential campaign hit back with a lengthy thread on X, tallying up many Republicans making a false claim that FEMA is offering $750 per person in disaster areas, and reminding the GOP that not only is FEMA doing its job, a great many Republicans — including some whose states were affected by the disaster — voted against the funding that is letting FEMA do so.

For instance, the @HarrisHQ account juxtaposed the complaint by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who said, "Not only are Hurricane Helene victims only given an insulting measly $750 and being left stranded, the U.S. government is giving $1 BILLION to Ukraine every single month to fund the Ukrainian government."

Greene, wrote @HarrisHQ, "voted against FEMA funding two weeks ago."

Other Republicans making similar complaints who also voted against FEMA funding include Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), and Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-CO), Tim Burchett (R-TN), Mike Collins and Andrew Clyde (R-GA), and Byron Donalds (R-FL).

Hurricane Helene tore a path of destruction through northern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas, particularly devastating the city of Asheville, North Carolina, which was virtually cut off from the outside world by damage to surrounding highways.

Before the communities can start rebuilding, another potentially lethal storm, Hurricane Milton, is bearing down on Florida from inside the Gulf of Mexico.

THERE IS NO CLIMATE CRISIS IN DESANTISLAND

Hurricane Milton tracker: 

Storm strengthens into dangerous Category 5, Florida prepares for massive evacuations

The storm has quickly intensified as it makes its way
toward Florida.


Kaitlin Reilly, David Artavia and Katie Mather
Updated Mon, October 7, 2024 

This satellite image from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration taken at 11:36 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 6, shows Hurricane Milton. (NOAA via AP)

Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified Monday morning, strengthening from a Category 4 to a dangerous Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of around 160 mph as it took aim at the Florida Gulf Coast, which is still reeling from Helene's record-breaking landfall just over a week ago.

Millions are facing the prospect of evacuation as Milton gains steam along its path toward the Tampa Bay area, where it is expected to make landfall Wednesday evening. If it remains on its current path, Milton could be the worst storm to hit the Tampa area in over 100 years.

The hurricane is one of only 40 hurricanes on record that have escalated to a Category 5 level in the Atlantic, and one of seven hurricanes to have gone from a Category 1 classification to a Category 5 in 24 hours or less.

Speaking at a press conference Monday alongside Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the state’s director of emergency management, Kevin Guthrie, urged those in the Tampa Bay area to evacuate.

“I beg you. I implore you,” Guthrie said. “Drowning deaths due to storm surge are 100% preventable if you leave.”

DeSantis said Monday that 51 counties in Florida are now under a state of emergency, and a pre-landfall declaration request has been made to FEMA for support in anticipation of the hurricane’s arrival. President Biden declared a state of emergency in Florida on Monday, ordering federal assistance to help supplement state and local efforts responding to Hurricane Milton.

The Mexican government issued a hurricane watch for the coast of Mexico from Celestún to Cabo Catoche, and a tropical storm warning from Celestún to Cancun, according to the NHC. Those in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas are also being urged to monitor its progress.

Where is Hurricane Milton and what is its path?

As of 12 p.m. ET Monday:

• Milton was located around 125 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.

• It was about 715 miles southwest of Tampa, Fla.

• The storm had maximum sustained winds of 160 mph.

• The storm was moving east-southeast at 9 mph.
  
  
  

• (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

The NHC warned Monday morning of "an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday."

"Residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so," the NHC said.

Portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys can expect rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches through Wednesday night. Such rainfall brings "the risk of considerable flash, urban and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding," meteorologists said.

Meanwhile, portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula can expect 2 to 4 inches of rainfall.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Kirk has diminished to a Category 1 hurricane. As of Monday morning, Kirk was approximately 765 miles from the Azores, moving north-northeastward at 23 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect, according to the NHC.

Warnings and evacuations

As of 11 a.m. ET Monday, a hurricane watch is in effect for:

• Most of the western Gulf Coast of Florida, from Chokoloskee to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

• Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche

• Campeche to the south of Celestun

• Dry Tortugas

• Lake Okeechobee

A “hurricane watch” means hurricane conditions are possible within the areas and is usually issued 48 hours before the hurricane is anticipated to hit.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for:

• Florida’s Gulf Coast, from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee

• Florida’s Gulf Coast, from the Suwanee River to Indian Pass

• Florida Keys, including Florida Bay

A “tropical storm watch” means tropical storm conditions are expected in the areas within the next 36 hours.

A storm surge watch is in effect for:

• From Flamingo to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A “storm surge watch” means there’s a possibility of life-threatening flooding.

As of Monday morning, the Florida Division of Emergency Management has ordered evacuations for six Florida counties along the state’s west coast.

During a press conference Monday morning, DeSantis urged residents to follow orders but stressed they do not have to travel far to be safe.

“You don’t have to evacuate hundreds of miles,” he said. “If you’re in areas that are susceptible to storm surge, you go to areas that are not susceptible to that. Every county has places within them where you can go to. Maybe it’s a friend’s house, maybe it’s a hotel, maybe it’s a shelter.”

Mandatory evacuations are in effect for:

• Charlotte County, especially in zones on the water along the Gulf, Charlotte Harbor and the Myakka and Peace rivers.

• Hillsborough County

• Pasco County, especially those living in low-lying areas or manufactured homes such as mobile homes or RVs.

• Pinellas County and its residential health care facilities across three specific county zones.

Voluntary evacuations are in effect for:

• Residents in Manatee County and Sarasota County are being told to start implementing evacuation plans — whether it’s staying with a friend or family member on higher ground or completely leaving the area.

To figure out whether you live in an evacuation zone, click here.

Milton comes days after Helene

Hurricane Milton comes just over a week after Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region as a monstrous Category 4 storm, causing at least 20 deaths in Florida alone.

After making landfall with 140 mph winds, the storm moved inland across the Southeast, leaving more than 200 people dead and leaving widespread destruction in its wake. Following the storm, the state’s infrastructure and emergency services have been stretched thin. As of 5:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, over 350,000 utility customers were still without power in Florida.

Read more from Yahoo News: Helene shows that hurricanes in the age of climate change don’t wreck just coastlines

Active hurricane season

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, but the peak of heightened activity is usually from August through October. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a “typical” hurricane season in the Atlantic will usually see around 14 named storms, “of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes.”

As of early October, eight hurricanes formed in the Atlantic — with Milton becoming the 13th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. As CNN notes, hurricane season is running ahead of the expected schedule. Typically, the 13th storm of the season wouldn’t hit until at least Oct. 25.

Earlier this week, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas warned that FEMA did not have the funds to make it through the season. President Biden said this week that Congress may need to pass a supplemental spending bill in the next couple of months to help fund states’ recovery efforts.

'Do you not know any women?' Michael Moore calls it 'shocking' Dems think Trump will win

Matthew Chapman

RAW STORY
October 7, 2024 

Michael Moore / Shutterstock

Left-wing documentary filmmaker Michael Moore, who correctly predicted former President Donald Trump would win in 2016 and that Republicans would not have a blowout victory in 2022, has a new prognostication on CNN: Vice President Kamala Harris does not need to run away from liberal causes to win in 2024.

That's because, he argued, the same army of women who stormed the polls in 2022 will dictate 2024 — and then some — driven now, as then, by the same rage over the loss of abortion rights, that has only driven more grim headlines in recent months.

"There is thinking that you're aware of from, I think, Democrats in the political class, who say, 'Yeah, but Harris needs people in the middle and liberals are going to vote for her regardless, why would they stay home? It's as good as a vote for Trump,'" said anchor Brianna Keilar. "What do you say to that reasoning?"

"I honestly think we're going to have one of our largest turnouts ever," said Moore. "I don't think that many people are going to stay home. I certainly hope not because of everything that's at stake."

Democrats, he said, are "such a frightened group of people. I mean ... they still think that Trump is going to win. This is kind of shocking to me, like, don't you live with people? Are you not aware that there's going to be a tsunami of women voting between now and Election Day? That they were told 2 1/2 years ago that they no longer control their own bodies. They no longer have a say. If they get pregnant, an unplanned pregnancy, the law now is that in many of our states, that you have to have that baby. If we have to do whatever we have to do, sort of a legal version of strapping you down to the table until you birth that baby. That's Soviet. That's the law of the land now.

For anyone who believes women will just "tolerate" being treated that way, he added, "Do you not know any women? Do you not live with a woman? Is there a next-door neighbor? Is there somebody you could just go ask them, 'So what do you think about my gender here? My gender? Nobody can tell me what to do with my body.' And maybe some people should. I'm just saying. But seriously."

Watch the video below or at the link here.

Michael Moore: Only ‘landslide’ loss will guarantee Trump’s ‘permanent removal from the public eye’

Judy Kurtz
Fri, October 4, 2024 

The Hill.


Michael Moore says it’ll take former President Trump losing the election “in a landslide” in order to “guarantee” that he fades from the spotlight.

“We need to ensure that Trump loses in a landslide, with numbers so massive, the likes of which haven’t been seen since the entire country tuned in to watch Geraldo [Rivera] open up Al Capone’s vault,” the “Fahrenheit 9/11” director said in a Friday post on his website.

“Because that’s the only way to guarantee his permanent removal from the public eye,” Moore said.


“We should settle for nothing less.”

Trump has repeatedly claimed the 2020 election was fraudulent and rigged despite there being no evidence of widespread fraud.

Moore, a fierce critic of the 45th president who once performed an anti-Trump Broadway show, expressed optimism that Vice President Harris would win the White House next month.

“Trump is toast,” Moore wrote.

“If everyone does their part in the next few weeks, Trump is going down in flames.”

But he also suggested that Harris supporters exercise caution.

“We do know that Trump has a stellar streak of pulling off the impossible — and those who have written him off have more than once lived to see the day where they must eat humble pie. It is never wise to do a victory dance on the two-yard line when Trump is your opponent,” the Academy Award winner wrote.

Moore also warned that Harris’s campaign could falter in its final weeks before Election Day if the vice president “is advised by her wealthy donors to shun the left and drop her more progressive positions in favor of a ‘move to the center.'”

“This, too, could reduce or depress the vote for Harris, especially among the base. I know many of you don’t want to hear that, but I’m just trying to warn you that the actions of party hacks and pundits have consequences,” Moore said.

“If there ever was an election where the totally unexpected and crazy could happen, this is already that election,” the 70-year-old filmmaker and activist said.

“Assume nothing. Take zero for granted. Work to prevent the worst results and prepare to make a possible Trump presidency a complete failure by spending these next weeks helping to elect Democrats to the House and Senate, thus creating a Blue Wall that will guarantee Trump will not be able to do anything for the next four years,” he said.

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. 

Michael Moore Warns This Move Could Cost Kamala Harris The Election

Eboni Boykin-Patterson

THE DAILY BEAST
Fri, October 4, 2024 

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images/Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

On the same day Vice President Kamala Harris is campaigning in Flint, Michigan, filmmaker Michael Moore is warning of a fatal “mistake that could be made in these final 4-5 weeks” until Election Day.

“If Harris is advised by her wealthy donors to shun the left and drop her more progressive positions in favor of a ‘move to the center,’” Moore writes in a new Substack post, it could “reduce or depress the vote.” The Fahrenheit 9/11 director grew up in the suburbs of Flint, and made the Midwestern city famous in his debut documentary, Roger & Me. He also voices his political views on The Michael Moore Podcast, and has been a frequent critic of Donald Trump. Overall, he thinks things are looking good for Harris.

“Right now, if you know how to really read the polls, or if you have access to the various private and internal polling being conducted by and shared only amongst the elites, Wall Street, and Members of Congress, then you already know that this election was over weeks ago,” he writes, presuming Harris the winner in several election scenarios. That said, “It is never wise to do a victory dance on the two-yard line when Trump is your opponent.” As such, Harris has to walk a fine line to see one of his successful scenarios come to fruition.

“Biden’s continued funding and arming of the Netanyahu regime has already depressed the Michigan vote,” Moore explains, so if Harris were to pivot towards the center, she could rock the boat. If she holds steady, however, Moore has glowing predictions for the vice president. “The vast majority of the country, the normal people, have seen enough and want the clown car to disappear into the MAGA vortex somewhere between reality and Orlando,” he writes.

What’s “being said to me in private by people I respect—and not just in whispers, but in excited tones of exuberance,” Moore writes, is that “a new era is being born, one where caucasian is just one of the options but no longer the bossy pants of the world.”

But complacency about a Harris win could be just as dangerous, he argues. “An aggregate of top polls as of today shows that Harris will defeat Trump in the Electoral College count by 270 to 268, but I think we need more,” he writes. “We need to ensure that Trump loses in a landslide.”

White supremacist ideas go mainstream: How the GOP is embracing a dangerous narrative

Jordan Green, Investigative Reporter

RAW STORY
October 7, 2024

An attendee wears a t shirt with Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump's picture at a rally for Republican U.S. vice presidential nominee Senator JD Vance (not pictured) in Newtown, Pennsylvania, U.S., September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Hannah Beier

This article was paid for by Raw Story subscribers. 

Abhorrence and fear of Haitian immigrants coming to Alabama to fill jobs in poultry plants had been building among conservative residents even before former President Donald Trump jolted the presidential campaign with his outlandish and thoroughly debunked claims that “they’re eating the pets.”

But in this state, which Trump carried in 2020 by a 25.5-percent margin, and other parts of the country where new immigrants have made an impression, a conspiracy theory fed by state and local officials is taking hold four weeks out from the Nov. 5 election.

The belief that the Biden administration is deliberately bringing immigrants into small communities so they can illegally vote in the election for the benefit of Vice President Kamala Harris is ricocheting through local mass meetings, halls of government and community Facebook pages.

The baseless narrative about non-citizen voting is seeding doubts about the election's outcome. It rests atop an aggregation of anxiety about cultural and language differences, misinformation about how both state voting laws and the federal immigration system work, and racist stereotypes about dark-skinned newcomers. Together, they reinforce a belief in the so-called “great replacement” — an idea with roots in the white supremacist movement — that has increasingly found mainstream acceptance within the GOP electorate since Trump was elected in 2016.

The notion that there is an incursion of immigrants orchestrated by the federal government, possibly with the intention of facilitating voter fraud, received a trumpet blast from Scott Stadthagen, the majority leader in the Alabama House of Representatives.

ALSO READ: The untold story of ‘they’re eating the pets’ in Springfield

“I think there’s no mistake that they’re coming,” Stadthagen said of the Haitian immigrants in his state during an interview on FM Talk 1065 last month. “It’s all organized. They’ve got EBT cards, working visas. They probably have voter ID cards, if I had to guess.

“It’s amazing how the federal government is allowing this to take place in the state of Alabama and other states,” he added.

Trump, whom Stadthagen praised during the radio interview, is among the loudest purveyors of the long-debunked claim. As far back as the run-up to the Iowa caucuses in January, Trump suggested that Democrats were encouraging immigrants to illegally come into the country so they could register them to vote in the election.


Many of the Haitian immigrants who have come to Alabama and other parts of the country in the past two years arrived under the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s humanitarian “parole” program. This program provides “advance travel authorizations” for Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan and Venezuelan nationals. Under the program, they are eligible to work in the United States.

But unless they become naturalized citizens — a long and arduous process — they are not eligible to vote. And while U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services handles applications for citizenship, state governments hold responsibility for registering voters and running elections.

Asked about his speculation that immigrants present on “working visas” might “have voter ID cards,” Stadthagen said in a statement issued to Raw Story through a spokesperson that Alabama’s secretary of state, Wes Allen, “is taking solid steps to make sure that only American citizens vote in our election.” He added, “I completely support his efforts, and so does every Alabama voter I’ve spoken to on the issue. Only American citizens should vote in our election, and I cannot believe that is even a question.”


Stadthagen did not respond to follow-up questions from Raw Story about why he speculated about immigrants being improperly registered to vote, and whether he was concerned that his statement could undermine confidence in the outcome of the presidential election.

During the radio interview, Stadthagen also criticized a city council in Sylacauga, 50 miles southeast of Birmingham, for cutting off public comment about Haitian immigrants during a meeting earlier in the month.

“Do we know where the individuals we’re discussing are coming from, where their point of origin is?” David Phillips, a Sylacauga resident, asked during the meeting, which took place on Sept. 5. “Because you’re treating them like lawful U.S. citizens, which they are not.”


“I’m going to cut it off, because we have no reason… to launch an investigation or to treat people differently because of how they look,” Tiffany Nix, the council president, told him.

“These people came here from Haiti,” Phillips said. “Haiti is a failed state. Their president was assassinated in 2021. There is no way the State Department can vet these individuals.”

After the council abruptly adjourned the meeting, a woman stood up in the back of the chamber and protested that the government would “spend our tax money.”


“They speak French,” she continued. “Are the teachers going to be able to educate the children that speak French?”

ALSO READ: Is this the October Surprise?


‘They intend to turn red states blue’


The notion that Haitian immigrants working in the state’s poultry plants are in Alabama as part of a scheme by the federal government to import illegal votes appears to have gained traction thanks in large part to the efforts of one man.

Jack B. Palmer, a former employee of the IT giant Infosys whose whistleblowing led to a $34 million settlement with the U.S. government for visa fraud and abuse of immigration systems in 2013, has traversed the state over the past two months addressing conservative residents concerned about Haitians living in their communities.

Speaking at a community meeting held at a church in Albertville, a small city north of Birmingham, in August, Palmer accused the Biden administration of “allowing unfettered immigration into the country to bolster the Democrats’ voting bloc in future elections,” according to an account of the meeting in the conservative outlet 1819 News.


During another community meeting at a church in Enterprise, located at the southern end of Alabama, 1819 News — which is widely read among Republican lawmakers and conservative voters in the state — reported that Palmer said the Haitian immigrants in Alabama were “illegal” because the program was “not authorized by Congress.”

The Biden administration expanded a program intended to provide humanitarian parole for immigrants from Venezuela by opening it to immigrants from Haiti, Cuba and Nicaragua in January 2023. Twenty-one states, including Alabama, sued the Department of Homeland Security, claiming that the program exceeds the authority granted to the department by Congress, but a federal judge in Texas ruled in March that the plaintiffs did not have standing. The case is currently under appeal in the Fifth Circuit.

Reached by phone on Thursday, Palmer did not dispute that a federal judge has upheld the program, but he said that in his “opinion” it’s “illegal.”


During the meeting in Enterprise, Palmer repeated his previous claim about immigrant voting, according to 1819 News, which reported that he “warned the Democratic Party is trying to make ‘a new voting bloc’ and that ballots are ‘going out in Alabama only to illegal immigrants.’”

Palmer told Raw Story that the quotes on immigration and elections from 1819 News’ coverage of the meetings in Enterprise and Albertville accurately reflect his views.

“I mean, think about it,” he said. “If a Democrat lets you in the country, why would you not vote for him? That’s my opinion. What’s not my opinion is the cheap labor.”


An ‘uprising’ against Haitian immigrants

During that meeting in Enterprise, Palmer made another claim about Haitian immigrants, which would send local and state officials scrambling in a county 175 miles to the southwest.

Palmer reportedly told the audience that 1,000 Haitian immigrants were due to arrive in Baldwin County, across the bay from Mobile on the Gulf Coast, in the first week of October. He told Raw Story that since Haitians started coming to Alabama after the 2010 earthquake, he has “befriended the Haitian pastors, and this is where my information comes from.” The pastors, in turn, had learned the information from non-governmental organizations.

Two days after the meeting, the Baldwin County Citizens for Government Accountability Facebook page lit up with alarmist comments about the impending arrival of “thousands” of Haitians.

Donna Givens, who represents the county in the state House of Representatives, commented on the Facebook page, pledging to “stay on top” of the issue.

Commenters on the community's Facebook page erupted with fear and indignation as if the government was coddling a foreign enemy.

“Who are the local collaborators?” one man asked.

Some talked about stocking up on ammunition.

One woman warned that young, non-English speaking men in the dairy section at Walmart might stab local residents if they tried to squeeze past them while doing their shopping.

ALSO READ: Why Trump is barely campaigning


“Why is the governor allowing this?” one woman asked. “Are they legal? Were they sent here to flip the state? Very concerning.”

“They intend to turn red states blue and the immigrants will all vote for a Democrat,” another woman responded. “This is a conspiracy at the worst.”

“I’m so concerned for our grandchildren,” yet another woman wrote. “Life as we knew it in America is over.”







However, no Haitian immigrants have materialized in the Gulf Coast county.

“As of now, we don’t have any evidence or any proof that such a thing is going to happen,” Baldwin County Administrator Roger Rendleman told Raw Story. “We have reached out to the federal authorities. They have not responded to any of our inquires, so we can’t necessarily say there isn’t. But as of right now, we have no evidence that such a thing has occurred or is going to occur.”

Palmer had an explanation.

“They have been deterred from coming to Baldwin, number one, because of the press and the uprising,” he told Raw Story on Thursday night. “Number two, the housing.”

Instead, he said, the immigrants will be coming to Marshall County, on the north end of the state.

Palmer provided Raw Story with a screenshot from a phone text exchange with someone he described as a Haitian-American pastor.

“Are they coming here or Mobile area?” Palmer asks.

“In Marshall County,” the pastor responds.

“So, they’re not going to the Mobile area any longer,” Palmer writes. “Do you know how many? We want to be prepared.

“I want to know how much money to ask for,” he adds.

“I’m unable to provide a definite number at the moment,” the pastor responds.

Fear of immigrant voting as part of a ‘great replacement’

The idea that the government is accelerating immigration as a scheme to bank more votes for Democratic candidates is not new, but it has moved into the political mainstream since Trump’s first run for president in 2015 and 2016, said Caleb Kieffer, a senior research analyst at the Southern Poverty Law Center.

“With the idea of importing a new voting bloc, this has been a longtime idea within ‘great replacement’ — that this is a coordinated effort to import the immigrants that are going to be loyal to the Democratic politicians,” Kieffer told Raw Story. “This thinking has long been prevalent in extremist circles. With the anti-Haitian rhetoric, we are really seeing this making a jump to the mainstream and showing up in electoral campaigns.”

Palmer told Raw Story he is merely sharing facts, but he doesn’t blame local residents for being angry.

“The communities have a right to be pissed off,” he said.

As to whether critics of the Biden administration’s immigration policy are blowing the impact of new immigrants out of proportion, Palmer insisted that cultural differences matter.

“When you bring a culture to the United States, the culture doesn’t know what to do,” he said.

Baseless claims that the federal government is enabling Haitian immigrants to illegally vote coupled with racist depictions of Haitians as savage and incompatible with the dominant American culture are proliferating in other communities across the country.

Cheryl Batteiger-Smith, a former Republican candidate for Indiana House of Representatives, criticized a program to help Haitian immigrants in Evansville, Ind. obtain commercial driver’s licenses through a local community college during a podcast posted on Sept. 25.

“And once they get the driver’s license, we know that they’re gonna vote,” she said. “They’re gonna vote. This is what the whole Biden administration’s end goal is, is to get them in here. ‘See what they’ve done for you. We’ve given you this free housing, free medications, free training, free any and everything. We’re gonna give you credit cards that have thousands of dollars on them…. And then, in return, we want you to vote for us.’”

In nearby Vincennes, a commenter on the Take Back Vincennes and Knox County Facebook page taunted another user for saying that those raising fears about their Haitian neighbors were misinformed because they consume Fox News.

“Betcha sing a different tune when 1 of em tries to lure your child outside or just breaks out a swinging machete over some minor infraction,” the commenter wrote on the Facebook page. “They are literally living FREE OFF OF OUR BACKS. DON’T CARE WHO YAR. A COUNTRY WORTH A S--- SHOULD ALWAYS LOOK OUT FOR THEIR VETERANS AND CITIZENS 1ST.”

Similar dehumanizing language about Haitians came up during the meeting in Albertville, Ala.

“I’ve been to Haiti… I’m not trying to be ugly, but it’s got a smell to it,” one attendee said, according to the report by 1819 News. “These people have smells to them. And I’ll tell you, these people are not like us. They don’t assimilate. They’re not here to assimilate…. These people are kind of scary.”

A 2022 poll conducted by Southern Poverty Law Center and Tulchin Research found that seven in 10 Republicans agreed with the basic premise of “great replacement” — “that demographic changes in the United States are deliberately driven by liberal and progressive politicians attempting to gain political power by ‘replacing more conservative white voters.’”

The “great replacement” narrative was cited by white supremacist mass shooters in El Paso, Texas and Buffalo, N.Y. Kieffer said the belief in “great replacement” heightens the risk of violence, while cautioning that not every white conservative who believes that the government is deliberately scheming to replace their votes and way of life is going to resort to violence.

“There’s a certain dehumanization and othering that happens if you’re going to uphold that ideology,” he said. “There’s a sense of violence that can be coupled with it. We’ve seen mass shooters motivated by that. If people really believe that they’re being replaced, people who are predisposed to violence might act.”

Following the presidential debate in which Trump turned the spotlight on the Haitian community in Springfield, Ohio, the tensions in Sylacauga, Ala. received renewed attention. Laura Barlow Heath, a conservative member of Sylacauga City Council, warned Fox News Digital last month local residents’ anger could turn to violence.

“I have a lot of concerns of civil unrest if we continue to not have answers to give to the people,” she said. Heath went on to say that residents are “very protective of their property” while speculating that the immigrants might engage in vandalism because “their culture is very broken right now.”

Heath could not be reached for comment for this story.

It remains unclear whether the city has experienced any change in crime that can be linked to Haitian immigrants. But Ashton Fowler, one of Heath’s fellow council members, said his interactions with a small group of Haitian immigrants who started attending his church gave him no cause for concern.

“The ones at church with me are great people,” he said during the Sept. 5 council meeting. “They want to come into church, haven’t asked for a thing, and worship and go home.

“Just as you would go to another town and buy a house and live there, they’re doing the same,” Fowler added. “We can’t ask them or watch them like a specific criminal or anything if they haven’t committed a criminal act. We know they’re here. We hope that they can provide to our economy and do things that help Sylacauga.”

Jordan Green is a North Carolina-based investigative reporter at Raw Story, covering domestic extremism, efforts to undermine U.S. elections and democracy, hate crimes and terrorism. Prior to joining the staff of Raw Story in March 2021, Green spent 16 years covering housing, policing, nonprofits and music as a reporter and editor at Triad City Beat in North Carolina and Yes Weekly. He can be reached at jordan@rawstory.com. More about Jordan Green.