It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Sunday, September 27, 2026
North Carolina Regulators Reject Duke Energy Gas Power Plant
North Carolina regulators rejected Duke Energy's $500 million, 250-megawatt gas plant built to power a 21-building Amazon facility near Charlotte.
The commission cited Trump's Ratepayer Protection Pledge, saying Duke hadn't shown how consumers would be shielded from construction costs.
The rejection lands as U.S. gas-fired capacity under development has grown 50% since January, driven largely by data center demand.
Natural gas output in the United States is expected to reach record highs in 2026 and 2027, as the country ramps up production and seeks to fill the gap created by restrictions on energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz. However, as the U.S. doubles down on its gas ambitions, a judge has ruled that a North Carolina gas power plant should not proceed.
Both the supply and demand of U.S. natural gas are expected to rise to record highs this year and next, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Dry gas production is expected to rise from a record 107.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 111.7 bcfd in 2026 and 115.9 bcfd in 2027, according to EIA data. Meanwhile, domestic gas consumption is projected to increase from a record 91.9 bcfd in 2025 to 92.2 bcfd in 2026 and 94.3 bcfd in 2027.
The EIA revised its predictions upwards for the year in September compared to August, when it said it expected production to reach 111.2 bcfd and demand to total 92.0 bcfd. The EIA now expects average U.S. liquefied natural gas exports to increase from a record 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027.
While China dominates several energy sectors, the United States has established its reputation as the world’s dominant natural gas power. China outpaced U.S. natural gas development for several decades; however, this is now changing due to the rush to build data centres for AI in the United States, according to a Global Energy Monitor (GEM) report.
The United States is now constructing around twice as much gas-fired capacity as China, and more than any other country worldwide, following a 76 per cent rise in under-construction projects in the first half of the year. The U.S. gas power capacity at any stage of development has risen by 50 per cent, from 252 GW to 378 GW, since January, which contributes a third of the global total. If all of these projects are completed, the United States will increase its gas fleet by around two-thirds, at a capital cost of over $647 billion, the report found.
Roughly half of the new capacity being developed is directly linked to the rapid development of data centres across the country. Many operators are opting to power AI data centres with gas rather than renewable energy, a shift expected to significantly increase U.S. carbon emissions over the next decade. United States spending on gas- and coal-fired power plants is expected to exceed China’s for the first time in several decades, according to the International Energy Agency.
Jenny Martos, a project manager at Global Energy Monitor, explained, “There has been an enormous surge in data centre proposals powered by gas in the past year, and the climate implications of that are huge. Building all of this gas for AI locks in decades of pollution, and it is also locking in dependence on a volatile fuel cost, which will get passed down to rate payers.”
Tech companies have invested heavily in purchasing the most efficient gas turbines for new gas power plants, creating a backlog for the technology and forcing several tech companies to invest in smaller, less efficient, more polluting turbines. In recent months, there has been increasing criticism over the environmental impact of data centres, as activists and residents call for stricter regulation of the sector. However, the Trump administration has championed the construction of new data centres and eliminated environmental reviews to help accelerate construction in the run-up to the midterm elections.
Nevertheless, in September, the Republican Party-controlled North Carolina Utilities Commission rejected a $500 million 250-megawatt natural gas project from North Carolina’s largest utility, Duke Energy, citing President Donald Trump’s Ratepayer Protection Pledge. Duke wanted to develop a gas plant to power a 21-building Amazon facility under construction near Charlotte.
However, commissioners argued that Duke had not adequately demonstrated how consumers would be shielded from construction costs, as outlined in the Ratepayer Protection Pledge, a voluntary agreement introduced by the White House under which companies agreed to protect American consumers from price hikes driven by data centre energy and infrastructure requirements. Commissioners said that if Duke planned to reapply for construction permission, it would be required to offer cost recovery mechanisms that comply with the voluntary agreement
The rejection comes amid concerns about rising consumer energy costs in relation to data centre development. American consumers have seen their utility bills increase significantly since Trump came into power, at a rate faster than inflation over the summer months, according to a recent Bank of America report.
The United States has announced a record-breaking natural gas pipeline project in recent months, which is expected to make it the dominant global gas producer and supplier. Much of this development is associated with the rapid construction of data centres across the country. However, the recent rejection of a proposed Duke Energy gas plant suggests that some U.S. authorities are feeling pressure from consumers to restrict development that lacks clear cost-recovery guarantees.
The White House has ruled out a flat diesel export ban, despite Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent previously signaling that restrictions were being examined.
Diesel prices have surged above $6.50 per gallon, prompting calls from Republican lawmakers for measures to protect U.S. farmers and truckers.
Industry groups warn export restrictions could backfire, potentially forcing refiners to cut runs and tightening supplies of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel.
The White House on Wednesday denied that the Administration is considering a ban on U.S. diesel exports, clarifying comments from President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent a day earlier that appeared to leave the door open to restrictions as the average diesel price in America topped $6.50 per gallon.
A White House official denied a report that the Administration was preparing a 90-day ban on diesel exports, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright said nobody was considering a flat ban on shipments.
Instead, the Administration is discussing ways to get more diesel into the U.S. market while maintaining maximum flows of gasoline and jet fuel, Wright said.
The clarification came after President Trump on Tuesday signaled support for keeping more U.S. diesel at home, saying, “I’ve said let’s not send out the diesel. We make a lot of diesel.”
Treasury Secretary Bessent also said Tuesday, “We’re examining whether it’s feasible in terms of the overall refining capacity and whether a full or partial ban would work.”
The oil industry and oil market analysts say a ban is not a fix to the high prices and would ultimately backfire on U.S. fuel prices and refining capacity.
As of Tuesday, the national average diesel price had hit $6.5276 a gallon, per AAA data, up by nearly $1 from a month ago and almost $3 a gallon higher than at this time last year.
The global diesel crunch resulting from the wars in Iran and Ukraine, which choke supply out of the Middle East and Russia, is being felt in price spikes everywhere, including in the United States, threatening to hit economies, including the world’s largest.
For the U.S. Administration, record-high diesel prices and gasoline prices at an all-time high for this time of year, when they normally drop due to declining demand, could be a major blow ahead of the midterm elections in early November.
Some Republican Senators led by Iowa’s Chuck Grassley are calling for a ban on diesel exports as record-high diesel prices are hitting American farmers and truckers.
“W diesel $6.57 in Iowa why doesn’t Pres Trump put an embargo on diesel exports like presidents in the 70s put embargoes on ag products bc food prices were inflated. High diesel prices ARE KILLING FARMERS INCOME,” Senator Grassley said this weekend after the national diesel price hit $6.50.
Trump’s comments on Tuesday appeared to lend support to those calls, before the White House clarified Wednesday that a diesel export ban was not under consideration.
The Administration has sent mixed signals on possible restrictions over the past week.
Early last week, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said, “We would consider an export ban if we thought that actually might lower prices, but that's not the case.”
Then Bessent said Tuesday that the Administration was examining whether a full or partial restriction could work.
On Wednesday, however, Energy Secretary Wright rejected the idea of a flat ban, saying it could actually increase gasoline and jet fuel prices.
“What's being discussed is what's the most efficient way to get more diesel into the United States of America, and continue maximum flows of gasoline and jet fuel,” Wright said, without providing further details.
Wright said the Administration was also discussing voluntary measures.
In the week since Secretary Burgum’s initial comment, national average diesel and gasoline prices continued to soar, and Republican Senators called for export embargoes to protect American farmers.
“If our govt can embargo chips to China it can embargo diesel to help American farmers & truckers We need our family farmers who feed&fuel the world 2b on the strongest footing possible no matter what’s happening across the globe,” Senator Grassley posted on X.
The issue with fuel prices is that they cannot be fixed “no matter what’s happening across the globe,” analysts and the American Petroleum Institute (API) say.
“We understand the administration is looking at every option to deliver relief, but restricting U.S. energy exports would only compound the problem—exacerbating refining challenges and ultimately hurting consumers,” API CEO Mike Sommers said.
“The answer is more supply and more flexibility—not new restrictions that risk making a difficult situation worse.”
The U.S. currently makes more diesel than it consumes and American exports are essential to provide relief to regions such as Europe and Latin America, where the diesel crunch is bigger.
If restrictions were imposed, refiners would reduce their run rates, ultimately deepening the global refining crisis and hiking prices even further, according to API.
“Limiting access to global markets could force refiners to cut runs—reducing production of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel and tightening supplies further at home and abroad,” the main U.S. oil lobby noted.
According to Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy, “Keeping distillates and diesel home does not change the world price that reference our prices. You can't fence off a globally traded commodity by executive order and expect the global price to stop applying to it.”
An export ban would ultimately damage U.S. refinery capacity in the longer term as political regulation of “bringing prices down” would discourage investment in additional capacity, De Haan noted.
Moreover, the U.S. could lose its position as “the world’s backstop for diesel supply”, driving importing regions to diversify away from U.S. supplies. This will ultimately hit the refining capacity in America, the expert said.
“The bottom line is this: the U.S. is not short of diesel. The world is. A potential export ban treats the global price problem as if it was a U.S. only problem, and the cure would be far worse than the disease.”
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
Brazil's Energy Mix Goes Green Even As Oil Production Climbs
Brazil added 1.68 GW of solar, wind and thermal capacity in August alone, pushing 2026 additions to 4.85 GW and total installed capacity to 221 GW, 85% of it renewable.
The World Bank approved a $968 million financing package for Brazil's Northeast while China's State Grid broke ground on a 1,468-km transmission line, the largest in the country's history.
With Lula and Bolsonaro headed toward an October vote, business leaders are pressing both camps to lock in a green growth agenda regardless of who wins.
Brazil is continuing to expand its renewable energy capacity thanks to favourable national policies and support from foreign investors. The South American giant has developed an impressive green energy industry in recent years, expanding its oil and gas production to strengthen energy security and establish its reputation as a regional energy hub.
By 2025, Brazil had an impressively low-carbon energy mix, with around 50 per cent of its energy coming from renewable sources, including solar, wind, and bioenergy. Brazil has achieved this diversification by implementing long-term energy policies that have primarily focused on energy security. Its energy-related emissions accounted for less than 20 per cent of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2023, compared to a global average of around 75 per cent.
In August, Brazil added around 1.68 GW of solar, wind and thermal capacity to the grid, according to the Brazilian power sector watchdog Aneel. Twenty new facilities were connected to the grid in August, including 15 solar plants, three thermal power plants, and two wind parks. This brings total additions in 2026 to 4.85 GW to date, with solar power accounting for 3.5 GW of new capacity. Brazil now has 221 GW of total installed power generation capacity, almost 85 per cent of which was from renewable energy.
In May, the World Bank’s Board of Directors approved a new project to encourage investment in low-carbon industrial commodities, clean fuels, and enabling infrastructure in industrial and energy value chains in the Northeast region of Brazil. The World Bank announced a $500 million loan as part of a broader $968 million financing package to help Brazil develop the region's largely untapped renewable energy resources. The northeast of Brazil is one of the country’s poorest regions, and developing the clean energy industry is expected to create employment opportunities and grow the local economy.
The New Development Bank also provided financing for a large-scale wind project in the northeastern state of ParaÃba. The 648-MW Serra da Palmeira Wind Complex was completed by CTG, the Brazilian subsidiary of China Three Gorges Corporation, in October 2025.
China and Brazil have deepened cooperation in renewable energy and cleantech development in recent years, with Chinese companies bringing cutting-edge technologies to Brazil to support sustainable development. The two countries' strategic priorities include green development, energy transition, and re-industrialisation. China’s State Grid Corporation recently broke ground on a 1,468-km ultra-high voltage power transmission project, marking the largest investment in an electricity transmission franchise project in Brazil’s history.
Ahead of the upcoming presidential elections in October, business groups are urging candidates to support green growth. The Brazilian Business Council for Sustainable Development (CEBDS), which represents 11 of the largest Brazilian business groups, addressed candidates in a 2026 Letter to Presidential Candidates, calling for greater focus, strategy, and governance to strengthen Brazil’s competitiveness and sustainable development.
During the CEBDS Sustainable Congress, the group discussed geopolitics and climate, investment amid uncertainty, water availability, power generation and food production. The summit also focused on how to turn Brazil’s sustainability agenda into an economic advantage.
Marina Grossi, president of CEBDS and a special envoy for the business sector to the 2025 COP30 climate conference, explained, “In this letter, we are trying to propose a project for the country. Something that will help us move forward rather than reduce us to selling commodities alone, but also climate solutions.”
The letter emphasises Brazil’s assets, including clean energy, productive soil, the planet’s largest biodiversity reserve, and decades of leadership in biofuels. In the letter, CEBDS states, “This nature is our greatest economic infrastructure, and the world is willing to pay for it. But no competitive advantage can sustain itself: it requires planning, policies that span governments, and a productive sector willing to turn natural wealth into lasting prosperity.”
The two frontrunners in the election are leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro is strongly in favour of oil and gas expansion and has called for growing energy subsidies. However, despite being a climate denier, Bolsonaro recognises the broad support for green energy and is not excluding it from the agenda.
In December, Lula instructed ministries to prepare a resolution on energy transition within 60 days for the National Council for Energy Policy (CNPE) following the country’s hosting of COP30 in November. The aim is to reduce Brazil’s dependence on oil, coal, and natural gas and to outline financing mechanisms, including the creation of an Energy Transition Fund funded by revenue from the oil and gas sector. Lula has also shown support for oil and gas as part of the energy mix. In recent weeks, he vowed to protect Brazil’s oil and critical mineral resources from foreign control.
Strong national policies and high levels of foreign investment have helped the South American country diversify its energy mix and solidify its position as a regional energy hub in recent years. With its strong track record, Brazil is expected to continue expanding its renewable energy as well as its fossil fuel capacity regardless of who wins the October presidential election.
Canada on Monday unveiled draft legislation that would speed up the approval process for major natural resource projects, a goal Prime Minister Mark Carney says is necessary to help deal with US tariffs.
Carney says Canada has to cut back on obstacles to growth, in particular streamlining a complex approval process for major projects that can drag on for a decade or more.
The bill says the time can be cut to a year, in part by conducting federal impact assessments and permit reviews simultaneously instead of one after another.
“The legislation will establish clearer, simpler, and more predictable processes for project proponents and Indigenous groups participating in project consultations, giving investors the certainty they need to put capital to work and build in Canada,” the government said in a statement.
In recent years, major Canadian oil pipelines have faced years of regulatory delay and legal challenges, leading to cancellations for some projects and spiraling costs for others, like the Trans Mountain expansion.
The government stressed that achieving the one-year timeline was not wholly dependent on the regulatory process, but would also require project proponents to provide data and project information in a timely manner.
Carney’s ruling Liberals have a majority in the House of Commons elected chamber, ensuring the legislation should eventually pass. Opposition parties could demand changes and drag out the approval process.
(Reporting by David Ljunggren and Amanda Stephenson; Editing by Daniel Wallis)
Greenland Mines says US pact could strengthen mineral supply
Greenland Mines (NASDAQ: GRML) says the new security agreement involving the US, Denmark and Greenland shows the territory’s importance for critical minerals, securing it and protecting its resources from non-ally countries.
The rare earth and precious metals company said its Greenland projects could form part of a secure allied critical-minerals supply chain. It is also proposing a North Atlantic Critical Metals Corridor linking the territory’s resources with downstream processing and industrial infrastructure in allied countries.
“Today’s announcement underscores what we have long believed: Greenland is becoming one of the most strategically important regions in the world,” Greenland Mines president Bo Møller Stensgaard said. “We believe that the same strategic importance extends to the critical minerals required for defense, advanced technology and energy security.”
Stensgaard added that this new agreement will help advance a framework that strengthens security, cooperation among allies and recognizes Greenland’s importance to the future of the US and other Western countries, especially when it comes to critical minerals.
The deal, announced on Sept. 18, is expected to be signed during the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly.
Greenland Mines holds two major assets on the island. Its Sarfartoq project in southwest Greenland contains neodymium-praseodymium rare earths, with the potential to provide 34% of all neodymium and praseodymium oxide currently refined outside China at 2025 consumption levels. Skaergaard, in southeast Greenland, has palladium, platinum, gold and vanadium.
Deal to be signed
The security pact builds on longstanding US defence arrangements in Greenland and would allow Washington to expand its military presence without changing the territory’s sovereignty while also prohibiting American adversaries from building their own bases there, CBC reported.
President Donald Trump has pushed for greater US control over Greenland since the beginning of his second term, at times proposing that the US acquire the territory. Denmark and Greenland rejected those proposals and have maintained that Greenland is not for sale.
The new agreement instead preserves Danish sovereignty and Greenlandic self-determination while expanding Washington’s security role. It would also prevent non-North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries from building military bases in the region.
Trump posted on Truth Social after the deal was announced that the United States would “FOREVER have the complete ability to do what is necessary in Greenland in order to secure and defend the security of Greenland, and the United States of America.”
For Greenland Mines, the agreement adds a security dimension to the growing Western focus on the island’s mineral potential. The company says Sarfartoq and Skaergaard could eventually help supply materials used in defence and advanced technologies while supporting its broader strategy of linking Greenland production with allied processing capacity.
Sarfartoq to expand
As the new pact could help develop new mineral projects in the territory, the company applied for a new license to gain more ground at Sarfartoq.
If granted, the new license would more than double their footprint in the rare earth and carbonatite district.
“Our strategy is straightforward: advance ST1 toward development, unlock the value of the less-developed known ST zones and systematically test the wider district for the next rare earth discovery,” Stensgaard said.
Shares in Greenland Mines were up 227% to $9.33 apiece by mid-day Monday in New York, valuing the company at $51.5 million.
World’s top rare earth magnet maker gives Xi leverage over US
Baotou City: Epicentre of China’s rare earth industry. Image by Matthew Stinson Creative Commons CC BY-NC 2.0
Baotou, an industrial city near the Gobi Desert, is the Silicon Valley of rare earths. Off Rare Earth Street, research institutes sit alongside a museum devoted to the minerals. Nearby, JL Mag Rare Earth Co., the world’s top maker of high-performance magnets, is building its largest plant yet — an expansion that offers a glimpse of how China plans to defend its commanding position in the supply chain.
Over the past year, the US and its allies have pledged billions of dollars to develop new sources of rare earths outside China. Indispensable to everything from missiles to electric vehicles, the minerals are a potent source of Beijing’s economic leverage. As President Xi Jinping arrives in Washington this week, rare earths are at the top of the trade agenda, with China weighing whether to expand export curbs this fall.
But as the US and others attempt to replicate China’s supply chain, Beijing is trying to redefine it. The country already dominates magnet production, and companies like JL Mag are now expanding into increasingly sophisticated components that incorporate them.
That creates a moving target. Mining rare earths is only the first step. The minerals must be separated and refined, turned into high-performance magnets and then manufactured into usable parts. Even if countries outside China secure enough dysprosium or terbium from new mines in places like Brazil, for example, they could still depend on Chinese companies — and their technology, patents and manufacturing scale — to supply fast-growing industries like robotics.
China’s rare earth magnet exports to the US fell last month, and Beijing hopes to offer additional export licenses as a bargaining chip at the summit, Bloomberg News reported.
JL Mag is Exhibit A. Just a few years ago, the company was best known for making rare earth magnets for air conditioners and wind turbines. Today, it has more than 10 times the current production capacity of its closest US competitor and has emerged as a major supplier to the EV industry, with analysts linking it to customers including Tesla Inc. and Volkswagen.
A review of JL Mag’s corporate filings and interviews with magnet makers in Asia and North America, as well as those familiar with the company’s operations, found that the scale and scope of its expansion far eclipse the nascent projects underway in the West. Little known outside the industry, the company is extending its reach from Baotou to as far away as Monterrey, Mexico, where it wants to shift some processing closer to US clients.
“JL Mag can meet the needs of its customers in a way that US competitors just can’t,” said David Abraham, principal at Materium Strata, a critical minerals advisory and market intelligence firm. “Customers can just give them their specs, and JL Mag basically presses a few buttons on their machines and out comes the product. Catching up to that is incredibly hard.”
Estimates put JL Mag’s share of the global rare earth magnet market at 10% to 20%, with its products used across the world’s top 10 new-energy vehicle brands. By 2028, it plans to add as much as 20,000 tons of annual capacity in Baotou, a 50% increase that would extend its lead in an industry where its three closest rivals are also Chinese.
The expansion is already visible. JL Mag’s Baotou site sits on the block next to Rare Earth Park, where Chinese scientists are carved into a granite wall and stainless-steel cubes embossed with chemical symbols dot the flower beds. At the factory, a recruitment flyer hangs on the front gate. The plant takes more than half an hour to walk around.
Robotics shows where JL Mag wants to go next. Last year, the company launched a business unit dedicated to humanoid robots that reports directly to its chief executive, with plans to expand its presence in the sector. Daiwa Securities has identified the firm as the sole supplier of motor rotors for Tesla’s Optimus robots. Another analyst estimates that JL Mag supplies about 80% of the magnets used in Tesla vehicles.
“They came out of nowhere,” said Constantine Karayannopoulos, the former chief executive officer of Neo Performance Materials Inc., which also operates a magnet plant in China. “To me, there is JL and then there is everybody else. They are a juggernaut. They can take business at any price.”
JL Mag referred questions about its operations and expansion plans to its exchange filings.
The company has long been on Beijing’s radar. In May 2019, Xi stopped at some of JL Mag’s facilities in southern China, touring production lines and inspecting the furnaces used to make rare earth magnets. The visit was celebrated in state media and JL Mag’s publications. To remain “undefeated in fierce competition,” Xi said, according to state media, “we must firmly grasp technological innovation as a strategic foundation.” China’s top trade negotiator, Liu He, stood at his side.
The timing and choice of venue were provocative then and prescient in hindsight. Just 10 days earlier, US President Donald Trump had hiked tariffs on Chinese goods, escalating a trade war that would punctuate his first term in office.
It would take until last year — just after Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs — for Xi to pull the trigger. China imposed export controls on rare earths, choking off supplies and threatening swaths of US manufacturing before helping force a trade truce with Washington.
Yet JL Mag has been largely unfazed. US efforts to diversify rare earth flows still face “numerous challenges,” the company said in its latest annual report. Chinese magnet makers will remain the “dominant players.”
In 2024, China accounted for about 94% of global rare earth permanent magnet manufacturing — far exceeding its share of mining — according to the International Energy Agency. That same year, JL Mag says it became the world’s largest magnet producer by both output and sales. Between Xi’s visit in 2019 and 2025, the company’s annual capacity more than quadrupled, according to its historical reports. By next year, it wants to boost that by another 50%, to 60,000 tons.
That advantage is reinforced by clusters like Baotou, where processors, magnet makers and research institutes sit just a few hours by train from the giant Bayan Obo mine. The proximity cuts logistics costs and makes it easier to share suppliers, recruit specialized workers and tap decades of expertise.
By comparison, MP Materials Corp., which operates the only rare earth mine and processing facility in the US, started producing rare earths magnets from its plant in Fort Worth, Texas, last year. After the Trump administration invested $400 million in the company, for a roughly 15% equity stake, MP unveiled plans to spend more than $1.25 billion on a much bigger magnet-making plant in Northlake, Texas, that would eventually bring its production to about 10,000 tons a year.
That expansion would equal about a third of JL Mag’s production in 2025, without factoring in the Chinese firm’s plans to expand.
Other US companies have made similar pledges to build magnet facilities but have little experience and capital to show for it.
Demand, meanwhile, is surging, benefiting JL Mag and Chinese rivals such as Ningbo Yunsheng Co. Ltd. Consumption of rare earths used in permanent magnets has doubled since 2015 and is projected to rise another third by 2030, according to the IEA. Outside China, demand is expected to climb 50% by 2035, with existing and planned magnet projects meeting less than a fifth of it.
“The Western companies are still developing their technology, doing everything from scratch,” said Derek Zhang, a Daiwa Securities analyst. “The Chinese companies can ramp up capacity very easily and the cost is maybe about 1/10th.”
JL Mag was founded by industry outsiders. Two decades ago, Cai Baogui was hunting for his next business opportunity. He grew up in Jiangxi province, the southern heartland of China’s rare earths sector, but had spent his career elsewhere — first as a university lecturer and later as a senior executive overseeing plastics manufacturing operations in Dongguan.
Renewable energy caught his attention after he met the chairman of emerging wind-turbine maker Goldwind, according to a rare interview Cai gave to a Chinese news outlet in 2020. Soon after, he teamed up with two friends, Hu Zhibin and Li Xinnong, to explore making rare earth magnets needed for such machines.
In 2008, the trio launched JL Mag by uniting opposite ends of the supply chain. Ganzhou Rare Earth provided a link to raw materials, while Goldwind became an important early customer. The idea was to move beyond the mining, separation and smelting that dominated the city of Ganzhou’s rare earth industry and capture more value by turning those resources into the magnets that make technologies actually work. JL Mag’s founding philosophy, Cai said, was “long-termism.”
Success was hardly assured. Rare earth prices surged more than tenfold in a matter of months in 2011 before collapsing, according to Cai, who remains the firm’s chief executive officer. If raw materials became too expensive, he said, it would be like having “flour more expensive than bread.”
By 2013 and 2014, Cai recalled, employees were leaving and he faced a choice over whether to abandon the industry.
But by the time Xi visited in 2019 — a moment Cai said “greatly boosted our confidence” — JL Mag had emerged from the downturn with a growing business supplying magnets for wind turbines, ACs and EVs. It had also gone public in Shenzhen the previous year.
Four years later, JL Mag raised about HK$4.2 billion ($540 million) in Hong Kong, giving it access to more capital as it embarked on a massive expansion.
In the years since, government support has accompanied JL Mag’s rapid expansion. The company received tens of millions of dollars in subsidies recognized over the past three years, while local authorities have repeatedly designated its factories as major projects.
Some describe JL Mag as unusually well-positioned to weather even the stormiest stretches in relations with Washington. When Beijing’s rare earth controls disrupted manufacturers abroad last year, JL Mag was among the first Chinese companies granted a general export license. Its US sales revenue rose 40%.
The firm has for years been one of the government’s “favorite sons,” said John Ebert, the longtime US representative for magnet producer Ningbo Yunsheng, which he left this year. “That’s why JL Mag grew so quickly from almost nothing into something.”
For potentially huge new markets like robotics, the company is going all-in.
JL Mag named humanoid robots as its next major growth pillar in its latest annual report. Their joints rely on magnet-powered motors that effectively act as muscles, allowing for precise, agile movement. JL Mag is pushing beyond simply supplying these magnets to making finished components, adding another layer of the supply chain for Western competitors to replicate.
“Moving forward the company will continue to increase its investment in research and development of magnetic components for humanoid robots,” JL Mag said.
China is already an early leader in humanoid robotics, accounting for 97% of global shipments in the first half of 2026, according to one survey.
The potential is substantial. Nomura says humanoids use significantly more rare earth material per motor than EVs. JL Mag expects China to remain dominant, telling Citigroup analysts it will likely still produce 80% of the world’s magnets in 2030.
“Even if Western projects materialize, management believes they may solve the ‘availability’ issue, but are unlikely to compete with China on costs, scale, quality and customization,” Citigroup said in a February report, summarizing JL Mag’s views.
That helps explain another US strategy for reducing China’s leverage: eliminating rare earths from magnets altogether.
Niron Magnetics, a Minnesota-based manufacturer, is pursuing that approach with magnets made from iron and nitrogen. The Pentagon is backing the company as it develops factories capable of eventually producing as much as 11,500 tons annually. Looming restrictions are also helping create a market for alternatives: Starting Jan. 1, the Pentagon will stop procuring certain defense technology containing Chinese rare earth magnets.
But the economics remain daunting. Niron has seen a “massive” influx of inquiries from prospective defense customers ahead of the deadline, said Tom Grainger, its vice president of commercial and corporate development. Demand has already overwhelmed the relatively small company — before it has even begun targeting robotics.
“If you take major economic buckets like labor, or government support, you just can’t compete with China,” Grainger said.
Op-Ed: Oil shock raises risk of metals shock as EV sales accelerate
(The opinions expressed here are those of Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters)
The oil shock caused by the Iran war is re-charging the electric vehicle (EV) market as high gasoline and diesel prices stimulate consumer demand for alternatives.
Economics is becoming as powerful a driver of EV sales as government subsidies and green ideology, particularly in countries most exposed to the loss of oil and gas supply from the Gulf.
This has huge implications for both the oil and metal markets, particularly for critical EV inputs such as lithium, nickel and copper.
Metal bulls lost interest in the EV story a couple of years ago after reality failed to live up to the early hype. Grid storage and data centers are now the hot talking-points for lithium and copper markets, respectively.
But wars in both the Middle East and Ukraine are acting as powerful accelerators of the green transport revolution.
Polar opposites
At a headline level, nothing very much appears to be happening in the EV sector. Global sales of new energy vehicles grew by just 4% year-on-year from January to August, according to consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI).
That pedestrian growth rate, however, masks wildly differing regional markets.
US President Donald Trump’s elimination of his predecessor’s subsidy scheme has sent the country’s EV sector into steep decline. Sales in August were down 33% year-on-year, bringing the year-to-date contraction to 21%.
US auto manufacturers have pivoted back to conventional engines, cancelling planned investment in new electric models and battery supply chains.
China is another weak spot. The world’s largest EV market saw sales shrink by 12% year-on-year in the January-August period.
But this should be seen in the context of a broader downturn in the domestic vehicle market, which registered a 24% year-on-year drop in total passenger vehicle sales in August. The EV segment of the market has fared relatively well, and the new energy vehicle penetration rate hit a new high of 65% last month.
Not that China’s auto companies are too concerned anyway.
They are exporting record amounts of EVs to the rest of the world.
European sales jumped by 36% year-on-year in August, with year-to-date growth running at 29% as high pump prices combine with government subsidy schemes.
But the most spectacular growth is outside the big three markets. EV sales in the rest of the world have doubled so far this year, according to BMI.
Cost pressures
On a total cost-of-ownership basis, battery EVs have already reached price parity with traditional internal combustion engine vehicles in China, according to analysts at consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
The flood of low-priced Chinese exports at a time of high gasoline prices is rapidly closing the gap in other Asian markets.
But, equally critically, consumer perceptions are changing. For many, buying an EV is no longer a commitment to the green cause but rather an economic choice.
Wood Mackenzie has modeled what it calls an “electric shock” scenario, in which high oil prices both accelerate consumer adoption of battery-powered vehicles and stimulate governments to prioritise reducing fossil-fuel reliance.
With battery performance continuously improving and EV costs falling, a structural shift in the passenger vehicle market could arrive much faster than expected.
The longer the Iran war grinds on and the longer Ukraine targets Russian oil refineries, the more likely that scenario becomes.
Metal stress
If the EV sector is shifting out of the slow lane, it will mean more pressure on already stressed metal supply chains.
Wood Mackenzie assesses that there will be enough metal to meet even accelerated EV demand but — and it’s a big “but” — only if investment in new production capacity is scaled up at the same rate.
Under the company’s shock scenario, copper demand would only grow by an incremental 2% relative to a base-case scenario that assumes global EV sales keep growing at a modest 4% annual pace.
But that means additional new mine capacity would have to rise from the long-term average of 850,000 metric tons per year to 960,000 tons between 2025 and 2040.
Lithium demand would grow by an extra 14% with availability complicated by China’s dominant control of the global supply chain.
Over the last decade, EV metal markets have struggled to match supply with demand, generating a sequence of price booms and busts.
It’s quite possible they’re going to get wrong-footed again as EV sales accelerate just about everywhere outside the US.
The irony is that while the Trump administration has stalled the US transition to vehicle electrification, it has inadvertently persuaded much of the rest of the world that it is time to go green.
