ByPaul Wallis
Published March 25, 2022
Map of Ukraine locating the humanitarian corridors agreed between Ukraine and Russia to allow the evacuation of civilians from areas hit by shelling. Updated as of March 19. — © AFP
The coverage of the Ukraine war has now reached an astonishing level of prim and proper euphemism. According to Reuters:
Russian troops are now falling back due to overextended (aka destroyed, non-viable, and non-existent) supply lines. This is now considered an explanation for the total failure of the Russian offensives.
The Russians will now focus on the Donbas region claimed by separatists. Presumably meaning the entire stated object of demilitarizing Ukraine is no longer a subject for discussion.
The New York Times says Russia is shifting focus to a “recalibration” of war aims. According to NYT, Russia now says the first stage of the operation has been “mainly accomplished” and Ukraine’s combat capacity “significantly reduced”. By the same sort of numbers and logic, Russian combat capacity has been “significantly obliterated”.
Russia doesn’t exclude forces “storming” major cities, though, in case anyone was wondering. (With what and when, one may ask? The Kamchatka Infant’s Bible Class? When the buzzards return to Novosibirsk? You can just hear the spiritual orgasms all across Russia, can’t you?)
Russia needs an out from this war. Euphemisms seem to work better than the Russian army in this regard. Realistically, they have no hope whatsoever of taking Kyiv and really never had. Their forces are basically evaporating. One Russian commander was killed by his own troops. The troops are said to be furious about their losses.
The credibility gap between official Russian casualty figures and other estimates is now extreme. According to Russian figures, they’ve lost 1300 killed in Ukraine. That number barely covers the number of drivers in destroyed vehicles. NATO says losses are around 7,000 to 15,000. Ukraine says about 16,000.
(In practice, while casualty figures in all wars are notoriously unreliable, the sheer lack of activity around Kyiv and other regions tells a simple enough story; no troops. An all-out offensive suddenly turns into apologia and evasions. No real need to guess what’s happening.)
…So this obviously so successful operation has now decided to withdraw to focus on the Donbas. (Withdrawal makes sense. There’s no military point in staying. Maybe to Irkutsk, near Alaska, where spring is just arriving? Or some nice gulag in the area?)
Another interpretation would be somewhat less rosy:
The overall operation is a disaster.
The large scale military effort is not sustainable.
The ridiculous 60km convoy and troops got eaten up northwest of Kyiv.
The north eastern attack on Kyiv is being pushed back.
Bombardment is their only ground option due to lack of troops.
Mariupol hasn’t been taken because they simply can’t take it.
They haven’t got anywhere with Odessa.
Russian deserters are a much bigger issue than admitted.
The dead and wounded are coming back from Ukraine in their thousands, it’s unavoidable news that can’t be suppressed for the Russian people.
There probably is a reason for this demure media babble
Russian government statements are still receiving the courtesy of anyone bothering to report them. Mainstream media isn’t being as hostile as it easily could be. There has to be a reason for that. The media is playing nice, perhaps just to maintain access to Russian government sources.
A more likely reason is that Russia is trying to redefine its diplomatic position for negotiations, and the Western media is cooperating. So it should, and so should Western governments. That’s crucial to ending this war. Russia must have an out.
Nobody really knows what the situation in Russia is, either. What really happens in Russia usually only emerges in history books next century, anyway. The only unarguable information is that Ukraine has had a blast effect in the higher Russian government and military echelons. That’s hardly specific.
A “shift in focus” is probably the greatest euphemism of them all. This war is effectively winding down, if not yet over. Withdrawal makes more sense than anything else at this point, from military and political perspectives.
With a bit of luck, the past will finally get over itself and move on to the present. It’d be a nice change.
France, Greece and Turkey plan mass evacuation of Mariupol’s survivors
Seen from space, the shattered wreckage of Mariupol's Drama Theatre where Soviet bombs are believed to have claimed at least 300, most women and children. Photo: Getty
The New Daily@TheNewDailyAU11:09am, Mar 26
France is planning a humanitarian operation with Turkey and Greece that will defy Russia’s siege of the devastated southeastern Ukrainian port city of Mariupol.
French President Emmanuel Macron announced the plan on Friday evening after an EU summit in Brussels.
There were already concrete talks with the mayor of Mariupol and co-ordination with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Macron said.
The key question will be Russia’s response to the evacuation initiave as its troops continue to mount a campaign of attrition to gain control of the historic and strategically vital Black Sea port.
According to the Elysee Palace, France is in contact with the Ukrainian authorities, the Greeks, the Turks and the relevant international organisations in order to specify the needs to be met.
The action should start in the next few days, according to Paris.
On Friday, local officials, citing witness accounts, said as many as 300 people may have been killed in the bombing of a theatre in Mariupol on March 16.
The city council made clear it was still not possible to determine the exact death toll after the incident, in which it said a powerful Russian air strike hit the Drama Theatre where hundreds of people had been sheltering in the encircled city.
Russia has denied bombing the theatre. The Kremlin says Russian forces have not targeted civilians during their invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24.
-with AAP
Seen from space, the shattered wreckage of Mariupol's Drama Theatre where Soviet bombs are believed to have claimed at least 300, most women and children. Photo: Getty
The New Daily@TheNewDailyAU11:09am, Mar 26
France is planning a humanitarian operation with Turkey and Greece that will defy Russia’s siege of the devastated southeastern Ukrainian port city of Mariupol.
French President Emmanuel Macron announced the plan on Friday evening after an EU summit in Brussels.
There were already concrete talks with the mayor of Mariupol and co-ordination with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Macron said.
The key question will be Russia’s response to the evacuation initiave as its troops continue to mount a campaign of attrition to gain control of the historic and strategically vital Black Sea port.
According to the Elysee Palace, France is in contact with the Ukrainian authorities, the Greeks, the Turks and the relevant international organisations in order to specify the needs to be met.
The action should start in the next few days, according to Paris.
On Friday, local officials, citing witness accounts, said as many as 300 people may have been killed in the bombing of a theatre in Mariupol on March 16.
The city council made clear it was still not possible to determine the exact death toll after the incident, in which it said a powerful Russian air strike hit the Drama Theatre where hundreds of people had been sheltering in the encircled city.
Russia has denied bombing the theatre. The Kremlin says Russian forces have not targeted civilians during their invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24.
-with AAP
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