UK
Humiliation for Tories as Labour win Kingswood and Wellingborough by-electionsToday
The latest losses for the Tories mean that they have now suffered the highest number of by-election losses in a single Parliament since 1960.
The Tories have suffered yet more humiliation after the Labour Party secured comfortable wins in both the Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections.
The latest losses for the Tories mean that they have now suffered the highest number of by-election losses in a single Parliament since 1960.
In Wellingborough, the Labour party overcame a majority of more than 18,500 to take the seat. The swing of 28.5% was the second biggest from the Tories to Labour in any post-war by-election, meaning that newly elected Labour MP Gen Kitchen took the seat which had been held by ousted Tory MP Peter Bone since 2005.
In Kingswood, the Labour Party overturned a majority of 11,000 with a swing of 16.4%, with Damien Egan becoming the constituency’s new MP.
Reacting to the news, Lord Gavin Barwell, a former Conservative MP who served as Theresa May’s chief of staff in No 10, described the Wellingborough result as ‘catastrophically bad’.
He posted on X: “The Kingswood result is bad but not that bad (Labour lead smaller than at the 2005 general election); the Wellingborough result is catastrophically bad.
“And both by elections confirm the Conservatives are facing a perfect storm, losing voters to both Labour and Reform.”
Labour leader Keir Starmer hailed the “fantastic” results, insisting they demonstrate people “want change and are ready to put their faith in a changed Labour Party to deliver it”.
He added: “By winning in these Tory strongholds, we can confidently say that Labour is back in the service of working people and we will work tirelessly to deliver for them.
“The Tories have failed. Rishi’s recession proves that. That’s why we’ve seen so many former Conservative voters switching directly to this changed Labour Party.
“Those who gave us their trust in Kingswood and Wellingborough, and those considering doing so, can be safe in the knowledge that we will spend every day working to get Britain’s future back.”
Basit Mahmood is editor of Left Foot Forward
Labour can celebrate byelection wins, but low turnout is cause for concern
Byelections NEVER HAVE HIGH TURN OUT
Swing in both seats would easily secure a majority at national level, but disillusion among voters is clear
Byelections NEVER HAVE HIGH TURN OUT
Political correspondent
THE GUARDIAN
Fri 16 Feb 2024
Swing in both seats would easily secure a majority at national level, but disillusion among voters is clear
The records continue to fall for Labour. The result in the Wellingborough byelection, in which the party achieved a 28.5% swing from the Conservatives, was the biggest Labour victory over the Tories since 1994 and the second biggest since the war.
Along with the victory in Kingswood, the party has now made six byelection gains since 2019 – the most it has made in a single parliament. The Conservatives have lost 10 byelections in that time – the most they have ever lost in a single parliament.
Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, called the results “fantastic”, adding: “By winning in these Tory strongholds, we can confidently say that Labour is back in the service of working people and we will work tirelessly to deliver for them.”
Labour’s swing in both seats was large enough that if repeated at a general election, the party would easily secure a majority.
On a swing of 16.4%, as seen in Kingswood, South Gloucestershire, Labour would have a majority of about 60 seats. If the result in Wellingborough, Northamptonshire, was repeated nationally, it would be apocalyptic for the Conservatives. On one calculation it would give them just four seats in a general election.
John Curtice, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University, wrote on Friday morning: “These two results suggest the Conservatives still have a mountain to climb. Indeed, at the moment, they still seem to be struggling to get even so far as base camp.”
For Starmer, the results are a welcome relief after a month dominated by headlines first about his U-turn on his green investment plans and then the controversy surrounding two of its candidates in the north-west who were recorded making derogatory remarks about Israel.
Labour officials, however, will be slightly concerned that the Wellingborough result is an anomaly, given that the Tory’s candidate was Helen Harrison, the partner of the constituency’s former MP, Peter Bone, who was recalled after being found to have bullied a staff member.
One Tory activist said: “None of us wanted to campaign in Wellingborough, we just couldn’t face having to justify our choice of candidate.”
If Kingswood is more representative of national opinion, it suggests the Labour lead is softening slightly after three byelections last year where the swing was more than 20% on each occasion.
Recent polls suggest the party has dropped in the polls since Starmer’s decision to scrap his £28bn-a-year green spending plans – though none have been conducted since Thursday’s announcement that the country entered a recession at the end of last year.
The Tories tried to put a gloss on the defeats on Friday, highlighting the low turnout in both seats.
Just 37% of voters turned out in Kingswood, and 38% in Wellingborough – below the mid-40s seen in recent byelections in Mid Bedfordshire, Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty. In both seats, the increase in Labour support was just half the drop in the Conservatives’ vote, suggesting that the opposition party is not fully capitalising on the government’s unpopularity.
If the Conservatives can persuade their voters to come out at a general election, party officials have said, they can still keep hold of power. Some are also keen to point out the success of Reform UK at both byelections, securing more than 10% of the vote in each.
“We have fought robust campaigns on the ground in both of these seats with local candidates,” said a Tory official. “But these byelections were always going to be hard. The government of the day rarely win byelections.”
The former cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg said: “I certainly thought this result would be worse … If we can reunite the right in politics there’s a real opportunity for us.”
Rees-Mogg has been at the forefront of efforts by Tory backbenchers to get the prime minister to tack to the right to claw back voters from Reform. Responding to Thursday’s economic data, one Conservative MP said Sunak should “cut business and personal taxes, reduce immigration, adopt radical measures to increase the size of the indigenous workforce”.
Sunak’s problem, however, is that he is losing votes on both sides and that any move to the right risks losing support, especially in the southern suburban seats being targeted by the Liberal Democrats.
Labour’s concern, however, is one identified by Starmer at the beginning of the year: that voters are not really moving their way but are instead so disillusioned with politics that they are staying at home. “The message on the doorstep was the same everywhere I went,” said one Labour activist. “Voters hate all of us.”
Along with the victory in Kingswood, the party has now made six byelection gains since 2019 – the most it has made in a single parliament. The Conservatives have lost 10 byelections in that time – the most they have ever lost in a single parliament.
Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, called the results “fantastic”, adding: “By winning in these Tory strongholds, we can confidently say that Labour is back in the service of working people and we will work tirelessly to deliver for them.”
Labour’s swing in both seats was large enough that if repeated at a general election, the party would easily secure a majority.
On a swing of 16.4%, as seen in Kingswood, South Gloucestershire, Labour would have a majority of about 60 seats. If the result in Wellingborough, Northamptonshire, was repeated nationally, it would be apocalyptic for the Conservatives. On one calculation it would give them just four seats in a general election.
John Curtice, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University, wrote on Friday morning: “These two results suggest the Conservatives still have a mountain to climb. Indeed, at the moment, they still seem to be struggling to get even so far as base camp.”
For Starmer, the results are a welcome relief after a month dominated by headlines first about his U-turn on his green investment plans and then the controversy surrounding two of its candidates in the north-west who were recorded making derogatory remarks about Israel.
Labour officials, however, will be slightly concerned that the Wellingborough result is an anomaly, given that the Tory’s candidate was Helen Harrison, the partner of the constituency’s former MP, Peter Bone, who was recalled after being found to have bullied a staff member.
One Tory activist said: “None of us wanted to campaign in Wellingborough, we just couldn’t face having to justify our choice of candidate.”
If Kingswood is more representative of national opinion, it suggests the Labour lead is softening slightly after three byelections last year where the swing was more than 20% on each occasion.
Recent polls suggest the party has dropped in the polls since Starmer’s decision to scrap his £28bn-a-year green spending plans – though none have been conducted since Thursday’s announcement that the country entered a recession at the end of last year.
The Tories tried to put a gloss on the defeats on Friday, highlighting the low turnout in both seats.
Just 37% of voters turned out in Kingswood, and 38% in Wellingborough – below the mid-40s seen in recent byelections in Mid Bedfordshire, Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty. In both seats, the increase in Labour support was just half the drop in the Conservatives’ vote, suggesting that the opposition party is not fully capitalising on the government’s unpopularity.
If the Conservatives can persuade their voters to come out at a general election, party officials have said, they can still keep hold of power. Some are also keen to point out the success of Reform UK at both byelections, securing more than 10% of the vote in each.
“We have fought robust campaigns on the ground in both of these seats with local candidates,” said a Tory official. “But these byelections were always going to be hard. The government of the day rarely win byelections.”
The former cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg said: “I certainly thought this result would be worse … If we can reunite the right in politics there’s a real opportunity for us.”
Rees-Mogg has been at the forefront of efforts by Tory backbenchers to get the prime minister to tack to the right to claw back voters from Reform. Responding to Thursday’s economic data, one Conservative MP said Sunak should “cut business and personal taxes, reduce immigration, adopt radical measures to increase the size of the indigenous workforce”.
Sunak’s problem, however, is that he is losing votes on both sides and that any move to the right risks losing support, especially in the southern suburban seats being targeted by the Liberal Democrats.
Labour’s concern, however, is one identified by Starmer at the beginning of the year: that voters are not really moving their way but are instead so disillusioned with politics that they are staying at home. “The message on the doorstep was the same everywhere I went,” said one Labour activist. “Voters hate all of us.”
Labour overturns 18,000 Tory majority to win Wellingborough byelection
Gen Kitchen takes seat for party for first time since 2001 general election to temper fears after testing week
Sammy Gecsoyler
@SammyGecsoyler
The byelection in Wellingborough was triggered when voters recalled the former Tory MP Peter Bone after he received a six-week suspension from the Commons when an inquiry found he had subjected a staff member to bullying and sexual misconduct.
He won the Northamptonshire constituency at every general election from 2005 to 2019, with Labour coming second in four of the five contests and Ukip doing so in 2015. His majority in 2019 was 36%. Bone did not attend Thursday night’s count.
There was further controversy after Bone’s partner, Harrison, was selected as the Conservative candidate. High-profile Tory MPs have been absent in the constituency and not a single frontbencher endorsed Harrison. Last month, Rishi Sunak dodged the opportunity to endorse her after he was asked whether he was “proud” she had been selected given her connection to Bone. He said it was up to local members to select their candidate.
Harrison stayed firmly out of the spotlight in the run-up to the byelection. She refused all national media interviews and has not posted on the social media platform X since 11 January, when she announced her selection.
The result will be welcomed by Keir Starmer, who has had one of his most challenging weeks since becoming Labour leader after two of the party’s parliamentary candidates were suspended in the space of 24 hours over comments relating to Israel. On Wednesday, a Savanta poll had Labour’s lead over the Conservatives down by seven points, its lowest since June 2023.
Gen Kitchen takes seat for party for first time since 2001 general election to temper fears after testing week
Sammy Gecsoyler
@SammyGecsoyler
Fri 16 Feb 2024
Labour has scored its largest swing in a byelection since 1994 after overturning a majority of more than 18,000 in Wellingborough, bolstering predictions that the party is on course for a landslide victory at the next general election.
Labour’s candidate, Gen Kitchen, won with 13,844 votes, beating the Conservatives’ Helen Harrison who received 7,408 votes in the largest swing from the Tories to Labour since 1994 and second-largest since the second world war. It was Labour’s fifth byelection gain from the Conservatives overall in this parliament. The party also gained a Tory seat in Kingswood, dealing a double blow to an embattled Conservative party that has lost 10 byelections in a single parliament, more than any government since the 1960s.
Labour achieved its largest swing in a byelection since 1994 with 28.5%. Turnout stood at 38.1% in Wellingborough and 37.1% in Kingswood, fairly low figures compared with other recent byelections in England. Tamworth and Somerton and Frome recorded lower turnouts but contests in Uxbridge, Selby and Ainsty and Mid Bedfordshire saw figures in the mid-40s.
Speaking after her win, Kitchen said: “The people of Wellingborough have spoken for Britain. This is a stunning victory for the Labour party and must send a message from Northamptonshire to Downing Street.”
The wins in Wellingborough and Kingswood will temper fears that a testing week for Labour has significantly threatened its electoral prospects and will further bolster predictions that the party stands to win a large majority at the next general election.
Harrison appeared at the count about two hours before the results were announced. She was in high spirits, posing for photographs and telling reporters she was feeling “good”. She also appeared on good terms with Reform UK, at one point calling over the party’s leader, Richard Tice.
After the result was announced, Harrison was swarmed with cameras while leaving the counting hall and declined to say whether her loss was Sunak’s fault, instead saying she was “disappointed”. She said she would “absolutely” be running again before complaining she could not see because of the bright camera lights in her face. A car was waiting for Harrison outside the venue which she swiftly entered as supporters caught up to applaud her before the car drove off.
Reform UK achieved its best result in an election so far, winning 13% of the vote, beating the record set about an hour earlier in Kingswood, where the party reached 10% of the vote. Ben Habib, the party’s candidate in Wellingborough, said the result was a staging post for the party’s growth, adding “the world is our oyster”.
When asked whether standing would lead to greater Tory losses and hand Labour a stronger mandate to enact policies the party opposes, Habib said: “I’m not into being a weathervane for the Conservative party. I’m not in it to make sure we get minor policy adjustments which suit our view of life. We need a 180 degree handbrake U-turn from the policy direction that the Conservative party has taken and that Labour will frankly continue.”
Labour has scored its largest swing in a byelection since 1994 after overturning a majority of more than 18,000 in Wellingborough, bolstering predictions that the party is on course for a landslide victory at the next general election.
Labour’s candidate, Gen Kitchen, won with 13,844 votes, beating the Conservatives’ Helen Harrison who received 7,408 votes in the largest swing from the Tories to Labour since 1994 and second-largest since the second world war. It was Labour’s fifth byelection gain from the Conservatives overall in this parliament. The party also gained a Tory seat in Kingswood, dealing a double blow to an embattled Conservative party that has lost 10 byelections in a single parliament, more than any government since the 1960s.
Labour achieved its largest swing in a byelection since 1994 with 28.5%. Turnout stood at 38.1% in Wellingborough and 37.1% in Kingswood, fairly low figures compared with other recent byelections in England. Tamworth and Somerton and Frome recorded lower turnouts but contests in Uxbridge, Selby and Ainsty and Mid Bedfordshire saw figures in the mid-40s.
Speaking after her win, Kitchen said: “The people of Wellingborough have spoken for Britain. This is a stunning victory for the Labour party and must send a message from Northamptonshire to Downing Street.”
The wins in Wellingborough and Kingswood will temper fears that a testing week for Labour has significantly threatened its electoral prospects and will further bolster predictions that the party stands to win a large majority at the next general election.
Harrison appeared at the count about two hours before the results were announced. She was in high spirits, posing for photographs and telling reporters she was feeling “good”. She also appeared on good terms with Reform UK, at one point calling over the party’s leader, Richard Tice.
After the result was announced, Harrison was swarmed with cameras while leaving the counting hall and declined to say whether her loss was Sunak’s fault, instead saying she was “disappointed”. She said she would “absolutely” be running again before complaining she could not see because of the bright camera lights in her face. A car was waiting for Harrison outside the venue which she swiftly entered as supporters caught up to applaud her before the car drove off.
Reform UK achieved its best result in an election so far, winning 13% of the vote, beating the record set about an hour earlier in Kingswood, where the party reached 10% of the vote. Ben Habib, the party’s candidate in Wellingborough, said the result was a staging post for the party’s growth, adding “the world is our oyster”.
When asked whether standing would lead to greater Tory losses and hand Labour a stronger mandate to enact policies the party opposes, Habib said: “I’m not into being a weathervane for the Conservative party. I’m not in it to make sure we get minor policy adjustments which suit our view of life. We need a 180 degree handbrake U-turn from the policy direction that the Conservative party has taken and that Labour will frankly continue.”
The byelection in Wellingborough was triggered when voters recalled the former Tory MP Peter Bone after he received a six-week suspension from the Commons when an inquiry found he had subjected a staff member to bullying and sexual misconduct.
He won the Northamptonshire constituency at every general election from 2005 to 2019, with Labour coming second in four of the five contests and Ukip doing so in 2015. His majority in 2019 was 36%. Bone did not attend Thursday night’s count.
There was further controversy after Bone’s partner, Harrison, was selected as the Conservative candidate. High-profile Tory MPs have been absent in the constituency and not a single frontbencher endorsed Harrison. Last month, Rishi Sunak dodged the opportunity to endorse her after he was asked whether he was “proud” she had been selected given her connection to Bone. He said it was up to local members to select their candidate.
Harrison stayed firmly out of the spotlight in the run-up to the byelection. She refused all national media interviews and has not posted on the social media platform X since 11 January, when she announced her selection.
The result will be welcomed by Keir Starmer, who has had one of his most challenging weeks since becoming Labour leader after two of the party’s parliamentary candidates were suspended in the space of 24 hours over comments relating to Israel. On Wednesday, a Savanta poll had Labour’s lead over the Conservatives down by seven points, its lowest since June 2023.
On Sunday, remarks made by Azhar Ali, Labour’s candidate in the Rochdale byelection, surfaced in which he said Israel had deliberately relaxed security before the 7 October Hamas attack after warnings of an imminent threat. After initially backing Ali, Starmer withdrew support for him on Monday evening.
Less than 24 hours later, the party suspended Graham Jones, the candidate for Hyndburn, after a recording surfaced of him suggesting world leaders privately bemoaned “fucking Israel”.
Speaking before the result, Toby Perkins, the shadow nature and rural affairs minister, said the suspension of Ali and Hyndburn did not come up on the doorstep, adding the win would give the party a lift.
Last week, Starmer formally dropped his flagship target of spending £28bn a year on green investment, citing poor economic conditions, despite support for the policy from the public and warnings from business leaders to keep it.
Labour last held Wellingborough between 1997 and 2005, losing it in that year’s general election to Bone. During the Tony Blair years Wellingborough was a swing seat. Labour won it in 1997 with a majority of just 187 votes and lost it in 2005 by 687.
In recent years the constituency has been a Tory stronghold, with the Conservatives winning with a majority of 18,540 in 2019.
For the Conservatives, the loss of another safe seat could prompt long-shot attempts by backbenchers on the right of the party – who are already at odds with the prime minister over the Rwanda bill – to replace Sunak as leader before the next general election.
Less than 24 hours later, the party suspended Graham Jones, the candidate for Hyndburn, after a recording surfaced of him suggesting world leaders privately bemoaned “fucking Israel”.
Speaking before the result, Toby Perkins, the shadow nature and rural affairs minister, said the suspension of Ali and Hyndburn did not come up on the doorstep, adding the win would give the party a lift.
Last week, Starmer formally dropped his flagship target of spending £28bn a year on green investment, citing poor economic conditions, despite support for the policy from the public and warnings from business leaders to keep it.
Labour last held Wellingborough between 1997 and 2005, losing it in that year’s general election to Bone. During the Tony Blair years Wellingborough was a swing seat. Labour won it in 1997 with a majority of just 187 votes and lost it in 2005 by 687.
In recent years the constituency has been a Tory stronghold, with the Conservatives winning with a majority of 18,540 in 2019.
For the Conservatives, the loss of another safe seat could prompt long-shot attempts by backbenchers on the right of the party – who are already at odds with the prime minister over the Rwanda bill – to replace Sunak as leader before the next general election.
Wellingborough and Kingswood by-election triumphs: Four key takeaways
Congratulations to Labour’s newest MPs-in-waiting, Damien Egan and Gen Kitchen – after major victories in the night’s two by-elections. Read all you need to know about Kitchen and the Wellingborough result here, and Egan and the Kingswood result and reaction here Some notable quick takeaways…
1. The Tory-to-Labour by-election swings are very promising
Analysis suggests Labour needs a 12.7% swing to secure an overall majority at the general election.
In Wellingborough, the swing of over 28% is better than any Labour by-election performance yet in this parliament, and second only to the record Tory-to-Labour postwar swing seen in Dudley West in 1994 (29.1%).
In Kingswood, Labour notched up a 16.4% swing, apparently close to what Labour achieved in a Wirral South by-election in 1997.
2. More by-election records smashed
The Mirror reports that the Tories have now suffered more by-election losses in a single parliament than any government since the 1960s.
Apparently the decline of 37.1 points in the Tory vote in Welligborough is also the biggest fall in postwar history.
3. Voters really are fed up with Tory decay and soaring prices
Kitchen said her victory showed how “desperately” voters want change. “People here…know our roads aren’t fit to drive on, getting your child a doctor’s appointment can seem impossible, and that they are paying more and getting less. Today they said, enough is enough.”
Meanwhile Egan said Kingswood voters had raised their struggles getting doctors’ or dentists’ appointments, safety on the streets and worries about what food they put in the trolley or how they heat their homes this winter. The cost of living crisis is “not just a slogan”.
4. Reform walked the walk on their strong opinion polling
Reform notched up vote shares of 10.4% in Kingswood and 13% in Wellingborough.
Pollster Luke Tryl noted that while Reform’s vote share exceeds Labour’s majority in Kingswood, not all Reform votes will go back to the Conservatives (as some Tories are implying now)– “so while Reform may have exacerbated the swing they haven’t cost them the seat.”
Sir John Curtice said Reform had “put down a marker”, showing more than one party are “hunting” to tap Tory discontent – but its success “may well end up doing more to help Labour”.
Tom Belger is editor of LabourList.
View all articles by Tom Belger
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