US $20B backing, stability key to Argentina’s mining push
Argentina’s push to unlock vast lithium, copper, oil and gas reserves depends on President Javier Milei’s political stability and continued support from the United States, analysts say.
As voters prepare to head to the polls, Milei’s administration faces a critical test. Experts at RXN Group’s “Election Day Argentina: Milei, Minerals, and Money” briefing warned that Sunday’s election could determine whether the president consolidates power or plunges the country back into political and market turbulence.
Milei rose to power on a wave of outsider appeal but without an established political base. His coalition, La Libertad Avanza, remains fragile, and a 14-point defeat in Buenos Aires province exposed the limits of his combative style. “Milei understands he must now build consensus,” said political reporter Gabriel Ziblat. “He can’t govern by aggression alone.”
Despite the political uncertainty, Argentina’s economy has shown rare signs of stability. The US Treasury’s $20-billion support package underscores Washington’s strategic bet on Milei’s reforms and the country’s mineral wealth. “It’s a major wager,” said Ryan Berg of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “If Argentina succeeds, it could become the model for deeper US partnerships across Latin America.”
Analysts cautioned that a loss of more than 10 points could trigger market volatility and weaken Milei’s congressional leverage. Even a narrower setback, however, may leave him able to govern—if he moderates his tone and delivers economic results.
Lithium, oil and gas
For investors, Argentina’s natural resources remain a powerful draw, provided infrastructure and political stability catch up. “The provinces are where the real opportunities lie,” said Argentine journalist Guadalupe Vázquez. “But none of it works if the macroeconomy collapses.”
Ziblat argued that credible macroeconomic management and deeper provincial engagement from foreign investors, especially from the US, will decide whether the mining sector accelerates or stalls. Berg described Washington’s $20-billion Exchange Stabilization Fund commitment as both a strategic gamble on Milei’s reform path and a signal that Argentina can offer predictable conditions for large-scale projects. Confidence, he noted, is crucial in mining, where long lead times and heavy capital costs demand policy continuity.
Not since the free-market revolutions of 1990s Eastern Europe has a leader attempted to rewrite the investment playbook so completely, and so quickly, as Milei. Already, he’s witnessed the $4.1-billion BHP (ASX: BHP) and Lundin Mining (TSX: LUN) tie-up over Filo Corp. in the country, as well as Rio Tinto’s (ASX: RIO) $6.7-billion purchase of Arcadium, which has two of its three lithium projects in Argentina.
Infrastructure, however, remains the sector’s main bottleneck, the panellists said. Many high-grade deposits sit far from paved roads and export hubs, inflating costs and slowing timelines. Analysts pointed to the revival of the Belgrano Cargas state-owned freight network, now moving to tender with open-access rules that allow mining firms to operate their own trains, as evidence that the government is prioritizing logistics to connect northern mining provinces with ports.
Integrating rail into mining production enables the sector to move large volumes of raw materials and key components required for the installation and operation of mining projects, a costly process demanding major investment, they said.
Clear rules
Regulatory stability is emerging as the other critical pillar. The government’s Regime for Large Investments (RIGI) seeks to anchor multibillion-dollar projects with tax and legal certainty while promoting coordination with provincial governors, who control key mining permits under Argentina’s federal system. Panellists said US firms should “go local,” following China’s province-level strategy that has led to swift deals often bundled with infrastructure.
If the current policy mix endures, analysts expect an industrial and export surge led by the Vaca Muerta shale formation. Oil alone could generate about $30 billion annually within five years, which is roughly on par with Argentina’s historic soy exports. Shale gas, lithium and potential copper output could further strengthen the country’s role in global energy transition supply chains.
However, market jitters over exchange-rate policy and election outcomes can quickly unsettle financing conditions, panellists warned. Sustained coalition-building and disciplined communication will be as vital as the legal framework itself.
The consensus: Argentina’s geology offers a rare opportunity, but only consistent rules, reliable infrastructure and a durable US–Argentina alignment will turn resources into revenues.
Without those, investors may look to Chile or to Chinese-financed projects that move faster from pit to port.
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