Thai student-protesters aim for ambitious political change

BANGKOK — He was only 7 when he saw his first military coup. He was 15 during the second. Now 21, he is among those at the front of Thailand's growing pro-democracy movement pushing for sweeping political reforms.

© Provided by The Canadian Press

And because of his activities, Bunkueanun Paothong has been charged with crimes that could see him jailed for the rest of his life.

“I took a stand I know that would be risky,” Bunkueanun said. “I stand firm in my principles and beliefs. Because it’s the right thing for me to do.”

Fed up with an archaic educational system and enraged by the military's efforts to keep control over their nation, the student-led campaign that began earlier this year has shaken Thailand’s ruling establishment with the most significant campaign for political change in years.

The protesters have three main demands: They want Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s resignation; changes to a constitution that was drafted under military rule; and, most controversially, reforms to the constitutional monarchy.

Political protest is nothing new in Thailand, and its past 15 years have been defined by it. Whether it was the red-shirted supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra or his yellow-shirted conservative opponents, some group could be counted on every few years to seize an airport, occupy a government building or blockade a key road in a bid to topple the government.

And like clockwork, the courts or the military could be counted on to intervene. Prayuth, a former general, first came to power in a 2014 coup.

But never before have protesters made such open calls for the reform of the monarchy in a country where reverence for the royal institution is inculcated from birth and protected by a law that makes defaming senior royals punishable by prison. The calls have infuriated some, resonated with others and most certainly complicated any solution to the latest crisis.

“We won’t back down, we won’t retreat and we won’t be open for talks until the government agrees on the three demands,” said Chonticha Changrew, who at 27 is one of the more senior protest organizers.

Many of those on the streets spent much of their lives living under military rule, and those old enough to vote got their first real chance last year. They flocked to a new party — Future Forward — whose smart and charismatic young leaders espoused a strong anti-military viewpoint.

The party shocked the establishment by winning the third-most seats. The military’s proxy party was able to cobble together a ruling coalition that put Prayuth back in the prime minister’s post. But Future Forward looked like it had room to grow.

Then in February, the constitutional Court ruled Future Forward had violated campaign finance laws, dissolved the party and banned its leaders from politics for 10 years.

The students, already upset at what they saw as an undemocratic constitution that shifted power away from elected politicians to appointed bodies aligned with the military, took to the streets.

“What motivates the student protesters is that they see the ‘game’ of politics as being fixed,” said Chris Ankersen, an associate professor at New York University's School of Professional Studies Center for Global Affairs, who previously worked with the U.N. in Bangkok.

The initial protests barely had time to spread before the coronavirus pandemic hit, and the students retreated. They returned in July, when the virus threat eased, and pushed their core demands of new elections, constitutional changes and an end to intimidation of activists.

The protests gathered steam and took a stunning turn in August, when a few students at a rally aired unprecedented criticism of the monarchy. Using direct language normally expressed in whispers if at all, the speakers criticized King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s wealth, his influence and that he spends much of his time in Germany. Among their calls were for greater oversight of royal budgets and an end to the practice of Thai monarchs endorsing military coups.

While shocking to many, it emboldened others.

Events escalated on Oct. 14 when protesters heckled a royal motorcade that unexpectedly passed nearby. Security personnel stood between the vehicles and the crowd, and there was no visible violence.

Nevertheless, Bunkueanun and two others were charged under an obscure criminal statute on committing violence against the queen, who was in one of the vehicles.

“I was numbed, dumbstruck, and feared for my life,” Bunkueanun recalled. He turned himself in to police the next day and spent a day in jail before his release on bail.

Prayuth and his government responded to the incident and the protests with their tested playbook, declaring a state of emergency for Bangkok that banned gatherings of more than four people and gave authorities other broad powers. That only led to even bigger protests and the government eventually removed the emergency decree to try to ease tensions.

Prayuth has said he is open to some changes but has maintained that the monarchy should remain off-limits.

“While I can listen to and acknowledge the demands of protesters, I cannot run the country based on protester or mob demands,” he said Monday, opening a special session of Parliament his government called to ease tensions.

The students’ questioning of Thailand’s social structure is rooted in their experiences at school, said Thak Chaloemtiarana, a historian who has also been an administrator at Bangkok’s Thammasat University and Cornell University in the U.S.

“The current movement, while led by a handful of university students, has attracted younger students who have become politicized through more news and information from the internet and social media, and spurred by how their teachers and school administrators suppress individualism and exercise authoritarian policies that control dress code, haircuts, gender choice, and ceremonies that are seen as originating from feudal times,” he said.

In addition to political injustices, Thak said, young people were spurred to action by what they saw as the king's accumulation of power and wealth with the acquiescence of the military, as well as the military’s needless expenditures during a pandemic-weakened economy.

The protesters' aim at the monarchy has led to counterprotests by royalists who allege the students are being used as pawns by unidentified powers behind the scenes.

Unlike previous protests, today's demonstrators are far younger and have no clear links to any group or party, making them appear untainted by past quarrels, said Allen Hicken, political science professor at the University of Michigan.

The government has so far seemed indecisive about how to deal with the protests, torn between trying to placate or punish those involved. Neither approach has lessened the ardour or number of protesters, who adroitly use social media to organize short, quickly announced events that don't require the infrastructure of past demonstrations.

Police use of water cannons and chemical irritants against the young protesters this month drew broad public outrage, so it's not clear if the government would push a more violent crackdown like those in 1973, 1976, 1992 and 2010.

Chonticha is aware history is not on the protesters' side, but she says in some ways they have already succeeded.

“Our movement has changed the perception of Thais toward the monarchy and military,” she said. “If we cannot win this time, we still have planted the seed of criticism of the ruling elite and monarchy in the people’s minds.”

___

Associated Press journalists Tassanee Vejpongsa and Busaba Sivasomboon contributed.

Grant Peck And Chris Blake, The Associated Press

Rebel alliance: Bangkok's motortaxi drivers aid Thai protesters

Orange-vested drivers of motorbike taxis have become allies to Thailand's pro-democracy protesters gathering across traffic-snarled Bangkok, offering lifts and keeping an eye out for trouble. 

© Mladen ANTONOV Bangkok motorcycle taxi riders have come to the aid of pro-democracy protesters, offering lifts and keeping an eye out for trouble

When authorities shut down train lines this month in an effort to curb daily rallies, drivers of the capital's motortaxis came to the rescue, ferrying stranded protesters to demonstration sites.

© Lillian SUWANRUMPHA Massive pro-democracy rallies have rocked the Thai capital for months

But they have long waited on the sidelines of the youth-led movement, cheering student leaders on as they demanded the resignation of Premier Prayut Chan-O-Cha and issued unprecedented calls for reform to the kingdom's monarchy.

© Mladen ANTONOV Many motortaxi drivers say they sympathize with the protesters' goals -- and are happy to lend a helping hand

"I root for these kids," said driver Supatr Manapornsiri, 41, adding that he keeps his prices low because he supports their goals.


"My income has increased a bit," he told AFP, saying it jumps from 1,000 baht ($32) a day to 1,300-1,400 during protests.

Another driver Pakin Kamhamauk, 44, sometimes even grants free rides.

"If they happen to have no money then that's fine," he said.

Motortaxis may appear a haphazard transport option for Bangkok's traffic-clogged roads, but there is order in the chaos, with passengers lining up on specific street corners to wait for drivers.

Congregating around demonstrations in their signature orange vests, the drivers are also helpful aslook-outs.

In October, when authorities deployed water cannon for the first time since protests kicked off in July, it was the drivers who rushed to provide early warnings and later blockaded some roads so activists could safely escape riot police.

Supatr said he worries for the mostly young protesters, who have rallied peacefully for their goals.

"They're well-disciplined. They don't go off to do stupid things," he said.

"I want every single one of them to be safe."

- First on the scene -

Thailand has a history of street politics turning violent, with massive demonstrations in the past prompting tough crackdowns from authorities.

Motortaxi drivers have aligned themselves in previous protest cycles with the so-called "Red Shirts", mostly working-class blocs supporting ousted populist premiers Yingluck and Thaksin of the prominent Shinawatra clan.

While today's growing movement is fronted by university students, the drivers -- who often hail from rural northeastern provinces and Bangkok's slums -- have gamely jumped on.

Dubbed by some as the "Orange Shirts", a play on Thailand's colour-coded political factions, motortaxi drivers are able to snake through tens of thousands of protesters, leaning on their intimate knowledge of the capital's backstreets.

"If there are protesters who faint, we're usually the first to help them out," driver Yom, 49, who declined to give his full name, told AFP.

Happy to support a movement seeking to oust Prayut, he said the former military chief has done little to boost Thailand's ailing economy since the 2014 coup that brought him to power.

"He doesn't know how to manage a single thing," Yom said.

"The country keeps edging closer to a cliff. I think it's time to replace him with someone new."

pit-lpm/dhc/oho/qan

Group of Maine students protest after the district told teachers and staff not to display support for 'Black Lives Matter'

A superintendent in Maine apologized Tuesday after receiving backlash from students for a memo telling staff to not display any "controversial" phrases including "Black Lives Matter" ahead of the election.  

© WGME Students in Scarborough, Maine, protest on Tuesday morning in support of Black Lives Matter.


By David Williams, CNN 

Scarborough Public Schools District officials sent an email to staff on Monday reminding them not to wear clothing or display items with political or controversial phrases in the week leading up to Election Day. It listed campaign slogans from the Trump/Pence and Biden/Harris campaigns as examples, as well as the messages "White Lives Matter" and "Black Lives Matter."

In response, a group of Scarborough High School students staged a protest on Tuesday outside the town municipal building before school started. They held signs with messages like "Racism Is Still Taking Lives" and "Why Is Demanding Equality Controversial."

"You can't choose what race you are," senior Mia Goulder, who was at the protest, told CNN affiliate WMTW. "You can choose your opinion on certain political stances, but because it is about someone's race, that doesn't make it political."

Krystal Ash-Cuthbert, president of the Scarborough Education Association, told CNN that the union had also heard from teachers and staff, who were concerned about Monday's memo.

Scarborough Superintendent Sanford J. Prince IV apologized in a public statement on Tuesday, saying the district needs "to better educate and equip ourselves to have these conversations."

"As I now reflect on a communication that was shared by our curriculum director to staff yesterday, I understand that the reference to the phrase "Black Lives Matter" was offensive to many people who read the memo," Prince wrote. "Please know that inclusion of that phrase was not at all intended to be a statement to make any member of the community feel less valued in any way and we are deeply apologetic for that."

Prince told CNN that the students who protested were very respectful. He applauded them for their passion and for taking a stand.

"That's what we really want our students to do," he said, "and what we want to teach them that when they feel passionate about something, they can get motivated and bring about change."

The school system has a policy on how to handle controversial issues in the classroom "in an atmosphere that promotes learning and respect for the beliefs of others."

The policy states that students should be exposed to different or opposing sides of an issue so they can form there own opinions.

"Educators shall not use the classroom as a forum to advance their personal views or proselytize," according to the policy, "but are not prohibited from expressing their own views for legitimate pedagogical purposes."

U.S. Election: Democrats, Republicans race to secure the ex-pat vote in Canada

© FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images TOPSHOT - Voters cast their ballots for Early Voting at the Los Angeles County Registrar's Office in Norwalk, California on November 5, 2018, a day ahead the November 6 midterm elections in the United States. (Photo by Frederic J. BROWN / AFP)

Camille Mitchell is a volunteer with Democrats Abroad.

From her home in West Vancouver, the dual citizen has been contacting as many Americans in Canada as she can to register to vote.

"A lot of Americans living here don’t know they can vote from here. They think they have to fly there (to the United States) to vote," said Mitchell.

"They don't."

Read more: Here is where Trump, Biden stand in the polls 1 week from U.S. election

There are approximately 660,000 American citizens in Canada, and in the last U.S. election, about five per cent of them cast their ballots. In trying to change that, Democrats have been aggressively recruiting ex-pats using ads on Facebook and Spotify.

"They have an incredibly well orchestrated campaign and we need to compliment them on their organizational skills, there’s no doubt about it," admits John Richardson, a Toronto tax lawyer who also has dual citizenship.

His own group, Republicans Overseas, isn’t as organized, he concedes.

Video: North polls: Getting Americans living in Canada to vote in U.S. election (Global News)


However, he takes exception to the fact that Democrats are aiming their campaign at dual citizens. For example, a Spotify ad which says, "Even if you've never lived a day in the U.S., you can vote in American elections."

"The people who just happen to have a technical claim to citizenship and don't identify as Americans shouldn't vote in American elections," said Richardson.

There's nothing illegal about the ad, which only runs in Windsor, Ont., right across the bridge from Detroit, Michigan — a battleground state where, in 2016, Trump won by 11,000 votes.

So if Americans living in Windsor do vote, they'll likely cast their ballots in Michigan.

Read more: U.S. election: How does the Electoral College work?

But does the ex-pat vote matter? According to Simon Fraser University political scientist Andy Hira, it can.

"Remember, the U.S. voting system is based on the electoral college. Voting margins can be slim and it is not based on the popular vote," said Hira.

He points to then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote in 2016, but ultimately losing the election.

The same thing happened to Al Gore in 2000. In both cases, either candidate lost in swing states.

"Americans living in Canada could have an impact on the election," said Hira.

Hence the Democrats' campaign in this country, where American political divisions evidently run just as deep.

"Imagine if every American overseas voted — the impact it would have on the election," said Mitchell.

Death rates among people with severe COVID-19 drop by a half in England

27-Oct-2020  by University of Exeter

Newswise — Death rates from people with severe COVID-19 in hospital have dropped to around a half of the rate at the peak of the pandemic, new research has revealed.

An analysis of over 21,000 hospital admissions, published in Critical Care Medicine, found a significant drop in death rates for both high dependency unit admissions and intensive care admissions between March and the end of June.

The team was led by the University of Exeter and involved the University of Warwick, and was supported by The Alan Turing Institute. They found death rates were highest in late March, at 26 per cent among people admitted to high dependency units, and 41 per cent among people admitted to intensive care. For June admissions, death rates had dropped to 7 per cent among high dependency unit admissions, and to 21 per cent among intensive care admissions.

Dr John Dennis, of the University of Exeter Medical School, who led the research, said: "Importantly, we controlled for factors including age, sex, ethnicity and other health conditions such as diabetes. This suggests the improvement in death rates in more recent months is not simply due to younger, or previously healthier, people being admitted to critical care. A number of factors are likely to be at play here, including improved understanding of how to manage COVID-19 amongst doctors, and the introduction of effective treatments."

The team accessed national data from adults admitted to critical care via the COVID-19 Hospitalisation in England Surveillance System (CHESS), collected by Public Health England. They looks at how the proportion of people with COVID-19 dying within 30 days of admission changed over March until the end of June.

Dr Bilal Mateen, of the University of Warwick, said: "The reduction in the number of people dying from COVID-19 in hospitals is clearly a step in the right direction, but it's important that we do not become complacent as a result. It's possible that the higher death rates at the peak of the pandemic are in part because hospitals were so overcrowded at that point. Even at the lowest point, nearly a quarter of admissions to intensive care were still dying- that's a huge number of people, and we have to do all we can to control the spread of the virus and keep hospital admissions as low as possible."

Best way to detect ‘deepfake’ videos? Check for the pulse
Binghamton University, Intel team up for 'FakeCatcher,' which monitors faces' bloodflow data

27-Oct-2020 12:00 PM EDT, by Binghamton University, State University of New York


Binghamton University, State University of New York

https://vimeo.com/472658937
Researchers from Binghamton University have teamed up with Intel to develop a tool called FakeCatcher, which can detect deepfake videos at an accuracy rate above 90%

Newswise — With video editing software becoming increasingly sophisticated, it’s sometimes difficult to believe our own eyes. Did that actor really appear in that movie? Did that politician really say that offensive thing?

Some so-called “deepfakes” are harmless fun, but others are made with a more sinister purpose. But how do we know when a video has been manipulated?

Researchers from Binghamton University, State University of New York have teamed up with Intel Corp. to develop a tool called FakeCatcher, which boasts an accuracy rate above 90%.

FakeCatcher works by analyzing the subtle differences in skin color caused by the human heartbeat. Photoplethysmography (abbreviated as PPG) is the same technique used for a pulse oximeter put on the tip of your finger at a doctor’s office, as well as Apple Watches and wearable fitness tracking devices that measure your heartbeat during exercise.

“We extract several PPG signals from different parts of the face and look at the spatial and temporal consistency of those signals,” said Ilke Demir, a senior research scientist at Intel. “In deepfakes, there is no consistency for heartbeats and there is no pulse information. For real videos, the blood flow in someone’s left cheek and right cheek — to oversimplify it — agree that they have the same pulse.”

Working with Demir on the project is Umur A. Ciftci, a PhD student at Watson College’s Department of Computer Science, under Professor Lijun Yin’s supervision at the Graphics and Image Computing Laboratory, part of the Seymour Kunis Media Core funded by donor Gary Kunis ‘73, LHD ‘02 It builds on Yin’s 15 years of work creating multiple 3D databases of human faces and emotional expressions. Hollywood filmmakers, video game creators and others have utilized the databases for their creative projects.

At Yin’s lab in the Innovative Technologies Complex, Ciftci has helped to build what may be the most advanced physiological capture setup setup in the United States, with its 18 cameras as well as in infrared. A device also is strapped around a subject’s chest that monitors breathing and heartrate. So much data is acquired in a 30-minute session that it requires 12 hours of computer processing to render it.

“Umur has done a lot of physiology data analysis, and signal processing research started with our first multimodal database,” Yin said. “We capture data not just with 2D and 3D visible images but also thermal cameras and physiology sensors. The idea of using the physiology as another signature to see if it is consistent with previous data is very helpful for detection.”

Deepfakes found “in the wild” are many steps below the kind of quality that Yin’s lab generates, but it means that manipulated videos can be much easier to spot.

“Considering that we work with 3D using our own capture setup, we generate some of our own composites, which are basically ‘fake’ videos,” Ciftci said. “The big difference is that we scan real people and use it, while deepfakes take data from other people and use it. It’s not that different if you think about it that way.

“It’s like the police knowing what all the criminals do and how they do it. You understand how these deepfakes are being done. We learn the tricks and even use some of them in our own data creation.”

Since the FakeCatcher findings were published, 27 researchers around the world have been using the algorithm and the dataset in their own analyses. Whenever these kinds of studies are made public, though, there are concerns about telling malicious deepfake makers how their videos have been shown to be false, allowing them to modify their work to be undetectable in the future.

Ciftci is not too worried about that, however: “It’s not going to be easy for someone who doesn’t know much about the science behind it. They can’t just use what’s out there to make this happen without significant software changes.”

Intel’s involvement in the FakeCatcher research is connected to its interests in volumetric capture and augmented/virtual reality experiences. Intel Studios operates what Demir calls “the world’s largest volumetric capture stage”: 100 cameras in a 10,000-square-foot geodesic dome that can handle about 30 people simultaneously — even a few horses once.

Future plans include volumetric-capture technology to be included in mainstream television shows, sports and augmented-reality applications, where the audience can immerse in any scene. Films in 3D and VR also are in the works, with two VR projects recently premiering at the Venice Film Festival.

By compiling the FakeCatcher data and reverse-engineering it, Intel Studios hopes to make more realistic renderings that incorporate the kind of biological markers that humans with real heartbeats have.

“Intel’s vision is changing from a chip-first company to putting AI, edge computing and data first,” Demir said. “We are making a transformation to AI-specific approaches in any way we can.”

Future research will seek to improve and refine the FakeCatcher technology, drilling further down into the data to determine how the deepfakes are made. That capability has many implications, including cybersecurity and telemedicine, and Yin also hopes for further collaborations with Intel.

“We’re still in the brainstorming stage,” he said. “We want to have an impact not only in academia but also to see if our research would have a role in industry.”

Biden did not "admit" to perpetrating electoral fraud, despite Trump and McEnany's claim

27-Oct-2020 12:15 PM EDT, by Newswise

Fact Check By: Craig Jones, Newswise

Truthfulness: False


Claim:
BIDEN ADMITS TO VOTER FRAUD! Joe Biden brags about having the “most extensive VOTER FRAUD organization” in history!!Claim Publisher and Date: White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany on 2020-10-24

On October 24, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany tweeted out a short video clip of Biden, along with the text "BIDEN ADMITS TO VOTER FRAUD! Joe Biden brags about having the “most extensive VOTER FRAUD organization” in history!!" This claim is false and the video is taken out of context. Pres. Trump, his son Eric Trump, and RNC Research also circulated this dubious claim on Twitter. Biden was talking about responding to voter supression and intimidation in the video, which is a huge concern for voters.

Authors of a study conducted at University of Notre Dame’s Keough School of Global Affairs and Department of Political Science say “during the pre-election phase, we found that respondents [in a survey] were most concerned about President Trump’s attacks on the media, the reduction of access to voting (including reduction in polling stations and the removal of voters from the voting rolls) and large-scale foreign and domestic disinformation campaigns." More on this study here.

As reported by Dan McGuill for Snopes...


Biden made the remarks shown in the video during an interview with the popular left-leaning political podcast Pod Save America, which was published on Oct. 24, 2020. Pod Save America is hosted by Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, Dan Pfeiffer, and Tommy Vietor, all of whom previously worked in the administrations of former President Barack Obama. The relevant section of the interview can be watched below. Toward the end of the discussion, Pfeiffer asked Biden a two-part question:

“Part one, what’s your message to the folks who have not yet voted or do not yet have a plan to vote? And part two, for the folks who have already voted — 50 million Americans who have already voted — what can they do, over the last 10 days, to help make sure that you’re the next president of the United States?”

In the interest of providing readers with all the relevant context, a transcript of that question and Biden’s response can be found here. In brief, Biden encouraged prospective voters not to be intimidated by what he cast as efforts by Republicans and the Trump administration to suppress voting, especially by people of color. He outlined what he presented as his campaign’s efforts to ensure the integrity of the election, including a dedicated telephone helpline, backed by hundreds of attorneys offering support and advice, as well as poll-watchers who will “police and watch” the election.

Immediately after he referred to “the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics,” (the soundbite highlighted in the RNCResearch clip), Biden said:

“What the president is trying to do is discourage people from voting by implying that their vote won’t be counted, it can’t be counted, we’re going to challenge it and all these things.”

“If enough people vote,” Biden added, it would “overwhelm the system” and effectively ensure that Trump’s purported efforts at voter suppression would not be successful.

It’s clear from watching the clip in its proper context that Biden was describing his campaign’s efforts to combat voter suppression and intimidation, as well as misinformation about the widespread perpetration of voter fraud. It would make no sense for a political candidate whose campaign was engaged in large-scale electoral fraud to publicly say as much, in those words, and that’s not what Biden was doing.

Study: Most Migratory Birds Rely On a Greening World

Continued climate change could spell disaster for many species

27-Oct-2020 2:05 PM EDT, by Cornell University

Photo by Helena Garcia, Quebec

Birds like this Common Redpoll consume both plants and seeds.

Newswise — Ithaca, NY—A new study from the Cornell Lab of Ornithology confirms that most birds—but not all—synchronize their migratory movements with seasonal changes in vegetation greenness. This is the first study of its kind to cover the Western Hemisphere during the year-long life cycle of North American migratory birds that feed on vegetation, seeds, nectar, insects, or meat. The findings were published today in the Journal of Animal Ecology.

"As you might expect, migration synchronization with vegetation greenness is strongest for birds that eat vegetation, seeds, or both, during spring and autumn migration, but especially during spring," says lead author Frank La Sorte at the Cornell Lab. "You could say they follow the 'green wave' north in the spring and then follow it in reverse during the fall, keeping pace with a wave that is retreating ahead of the North American winter."




The "green wave" of maturing and dying vegetation is plainly visible in this animation based on data from the MODIS imaging sensors onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. Vegetation greenness in Central and South America remains relatively stable except in the eastern portion of the continent. Animation by Frank La Sorte, Cornell Lab of Ornithology.



But the pattern does not hold for carnivores, such as hawks and eagles, in the West during either migration period. The evidence is also weak for synchronization among insect-eating birds during spring migration in eastern and central portions of the United States. Birds that rely on nectar—hummingbirds primarily—also showed looser ties to vegetation greenness in the West. The reason for the lack of synchronization for insect-eating birds in the East is a massive geographical barrier to migration: the Gulf of Mexico. Birds wintering in Central and South America cannot detect vegetation changes on the U.S. side of the Gulf in spring and vice versa in the fall.

Scientists used data from satellites to estimate the greenness of vegetation year round and cross-referenced that data with eBird observations for 230 North American migratory bird species from 2006 through 2018. eBird is the Lab’s worldwide bird observation reporting platform. So why does all this matter? Climate change.

Vegetation green-up in the spring is controlled by changes in temperature and precipitation; die-back of vegetation in the autumn is controlled by temperature and hours of daylight—all factors important in timing of migrations.

"Our findings emphasize the need to better understand the environmental cues that regulate migratory behavior and the implications for migratory birds if these cues change," La Sorte says. "Unchecked climate change means it‘s more likely that there will be a mismatch--migratory birds during stopover or when arriving on their breeding or wintering grounds could miss the peak food supply—no matter what they eat."

Funding for this study comes from the Wolf Creek Charitable Foundation and the National Science Foundation.

Reference:
Phenological synchronization of seasonal bird migration with vegetation greenness across dietary guilds, Frank A. La Sorte, Catherine H. Graham, Journal of Animal Ecology.

 

The fact that SARS-CoV-2 virus can or cannot spread through airborne transmission does not render masks "worthless"

27-Oct-2020 

By: Craig Jones, Newswise

Truthfulness: False

Claim:

CDC says [the SARS-CoV-2] virus was never airborne, rendering masks worthless

Claim Publisher and Date: Owen Shroyer, Banned.video on 2020-09-22

A video featuring Owen Shroyer originally published by Banned.video went viral on Facebook in late October. The video claims that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, was never airborne, and wearing face masks is unnecessary. This claim is false and inaccurate. The CDC never said the virus could not be airborne.  Although the CDC "updated" their guidance on its website to include aerosols among the most common forms of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, experts agree that the virus can spread through water droplets and masks can act as a physical barrier to stop these droplets from spreading from person to person. There is increasing evidence that suggest airborne transmission may also play a role in the spread of COVID-19.

As reported by Health Feedback...

The CDC and other health agencies recommend that the general public use cloth face masks to reduce the spread of COVID-19, because masks act as physical barriers that block the release of respiratory droplets and larger aerosol particles, thereby reducing the spread of infectious particles. Wearing face masks can also reduce the likelihood that people who are unaware they are infected will transmit the virus to others. Infected individuals who do not appear to be ill are responsible for about half of COVID-19 transmission, as Health Feedback explained in this review.

The claim that face masks are useless in the absence of aerosol transmission is based on flawed reasoning. The intended use of regular masks and cloth face coverings is to block respiratory droplets, which is the main route of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In fact, cloth masks are less effective at blocking small aerosol particles, some of which may leak through the pores of the fabric[2]. Therefore, the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 spreads through airborne transmission does not affect the recommendation of wearing face masks, although it may change the type of mask recommended.

‘I Look After People But No One Will Look After Me’ - Why The UK's Migrant Key Workers Are Facing Extreme Poverty And Abuse In The Pandemic


The Home Office has been accused of ignoring migrants with No Recourse to Public Funds in the Covid-19 pandemic, forcing many into destitution | PA Images
 


Georgina Bailey
24 October


Approximately 1.4 million migrants in the UK have no access to state funds – including hundreds of thousands of key workers in the healthcare and hospitality sectors. As Covid-19 pushes more people into destitution, Georgina Bailey reports on how they've been impacted by the government's policies.

“It's really hard. I'm really scared to go to work, especially because I'm a carer. I'm so scared. But I don't have a choice. I need to go to work. Because nobody will help me.”

Maya*, 36, is a senior night carer at a residential care home in North London. Originally from the Philippines, she lives in a two bedroom flat with her British 8-year-old son and another family member. Maya has colitis and suspected Crohn's disease – a condition placing patients at high-risk for Covid-19, and in the ‘shielding’ category.

However, Maya never shielded, despite being asked to by her doctor. She continued to go to work, earning £9 per hour, less than the London Living Wage, currently £10.75. “I just kept on working… while I'm on treatment as well. I just carry on working. Of course, I'm worried about, financially… how can I manage everything during the pandemic?”

When she tested positive for Covid-19 in August, Maya took two weeks of annual leave to self-isolate with her son rather than rely on statutory sick pay – it would not cover her rent (£900 a month), and she is already in debt. She normally works 55 hours a week including overtime, totaling £1980 before tax and deductions. In the pandemic, she has cut back to 40 hours a week to try and protect her health as much as possible.

Maya is ineligible for most types of state support, despite her low income – and her situation is not unique. She, like approximately 1.4 million others, is living and working legally in the UK with No Recourse To Public Funds (NPRF) conditions applied to her visa, meaning that she cannot access Universal Credit, Job Seekers Allowance, child tax credit, or housing benefit, among other state funds.

Many of those living under these conditions, like Maya, are key workers – around 850,000 migrants work in health – including the NHS – and social care, accounting for approximately one-fifth of the total workforce.

I do look after people but no one will look after me. When I need it, nobody is there

NRPF is a standard condition applied to the visas of legal migrants who have Limited Leave To Remain. Although a similar policy has existed for decades, it was expanded in 2012 and now most legal migrants to the UK have NRPF conditions – illegal migrants, by default, cannot access most public funds.

Explaining the policy, the Home Office says: “Those seeking to establish their family life in the UK must do so on a basis that prevents burdens on the State and the UK taxpayer. It is right that those who benefit from the State contribute towards it.” However, charities have long argued that it pushes migrants into destitution, particularly as they are more likely to be in low-paid, insecure work.

According to those who work with those with NRPF, the pandemic has made the situation “immeasurably worse”, with the number of people applying to have the condition lifted because of destitution increasing six-fold. The Children's Society estimated early in the pandemic that there were at least 100,000 children in families in the UK on the brink of destitution due to NRPF conditions.

According to The Unity Project, a charity which supports people who are destitute get their NRPF conditions lifted, a third of those they have helped in the pandemic have been key workers like Maya.

“I don't get enough salary. I do look after people but no one will look after me. When I need it, nobody is there,” says Maya. After previously being rejected, she has now applied for her NRPF conditions to be lifted again.

The Local Government Association, the Labour party, the House of Commons Work and Pensions and Home Affairs Committees, and a number of charities have all called for NRPF conditions to be suspended for the course of the pandemic, citing pressures on homelessness and local authority services, the increased risk of destitution, and the public health risks of people being forced to work when they should be isolating or shielding.

“It has been absolutely devastating,” says The Children’s Society, who are reporting “a huge rise in new referrals from families that they've never worked with before” since the pandemic started.

Safety4Sisters, a charity working with migrant women experiencing gender-based violence, reported this week that their number of referrals and cases had doubled over lockdown. All of the women they saw who wanted a refuge space were initially refused one due to their NRPF conditions. In one case, a domestic abuse service support worker Safety4Sisters worked with informed them that they were unable to take on outreach support for a woman with NRPF as their funders ‘do not allow it’.

In the first six months of the pandemic, 15% of those helped by The Unity Project had been subject to domestic abuse, with both the amount and severity of harm increasing during lockdown.

One advocacy worker with Safety4Sisters stated in their report, Locked in abuse, locked out of safety, that:

“As Covid–19 restrictions were quickly embedded into households, perpetrators – who already used their wives or partners immigration dependency as a form of coercive control – were further empowered…

“In some cases they were persuaded by social services and the police that they should negotiate around the abuse and “humour” the abuser in the house or leave their children behind with the abuser, rather than risk homelessness under Covid or/and that as “NRPF cases” they neither had the resources nor statutory responsibility to ensure their safety.”

The Government has repeatedly rejected calls to suspend NRPF, stating that the Job Retention Scheme, Self-Employed Income Support Scheme, Statutory Sick Pay, and the statutory duty on local authorities to provide a “a basic safety net” to the most vulnerable, can all be accessed by those with NRPF.

Additionally, if people have paid national insurance for two years prior, those with NRPF may be entitled to limited contribution-based benefits such as Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) to cover lost income. The ban on evictions which was in place from March to September also covered those with NRPF, and free school meals were also extended to cover the children of parents with NRPF.

However, with ongoing issues with eligibility and strains on local authority finances, and as further restrictions and more job losses loom, some are worried that the situation could worsen further, with MPs alleging that that more families will be forced into hunger and destitution in Tier 3 areas due to the lack of support.


These are families who have literally no food at all in the cupboard, parents are regularly cutting down on the number of meals they eat each day to be able to feed their children

The topic of NRPF in the pandemic first came to public attention in May this year when Stephen Timms, chair of the Work and Pensions Committee and long-term Labour MP for East Ham, one of the most deprived constituencies in the country, appeared to trip up the Prime Minister about NRPF in front of the powerful House of Commons Liaison Committee.

Timms had asked about the case of two constituents, originally from Pakistan, with two children. Living and working here legally, on the 10 year path to settlement route, the husband’s employer had not put him on the job retention scheme during the pandemic, leaving him with zero income. The wife’s income was less than their household rent. They had NPRF.

“Isn’t it wrong that a hard-working, law-abiding family like that is being forced into destitution by the current arrangements?” Timms had asked.

After initially querying what no recourse to public funds meant, Johnson told Timms: “Clearly people who have worked hard for this country and who live and work here should have support of one kind or another… You’ve raised a very important point – if the condition of their leave to remain is that they should have no recourse to public funds I will find out how many there are in that position and we will see what we can do to help.”

But since then, the Prime Minister and Home Secretary have repeatedly said that they will not lift the condition, citing existing pandemic-specific support.



Timms however, believes that the Home Office “has absolutely failed to recognise the situation that people find themselves in”. He recently visited a warehouse of the charity FareShare, which gathers surplus food from farms and supermarkets and distributes it to food banks and other charities.

“They told me that before the pandemic, they were sending one tonne of food per week to my borough, Newham. They’re now sending 20 tonnes of food per week to Newham. And the council estimates… probably around a third of that increase from one tonne to 20 tonnes is accounted for by people with leave to remain working legally, fully entitled to and complying with the law. But their work has stopped because of the pandemic and they've got no recourse to public funds. They've got zero income coming in,” Timms explains.

Lucy Leon of The Children’s Society explains: “Some families we work with are sleeping on people's floors. We're talking about a whole family of three or four having to share a bed, or sleeping on a sofa with no privacy or space for themselves. People are at risk of potentially exploitative situations. These are families who have literally no food at all in the cupboard, parents are regularly cutting down on the number of meals they eat each day to be able to feed their children.”

The Unity Project reports that even before the pandemic, 52% of the people with NRPF they supported did not have a bed to sleep in, one-third shared a bedroom with their children and with other people who were not their family, and that 6% of single women they supported had been street homeless with their children.

Other cases reported by The Unity Project in the pandemic include several who work in the NHS. One couple who are both care assistants in the NHS could only afford to live with their 11-year-old British daughter in an unconverted office room in a business centre, with no bathroom and only a shared toilet and kitchenette.

Another key worker, Ada*, is an NHS healthcare assistant, earning just over £1,000 a month. She has to share a single room with her 6-year-old daughter in a house they share with five adult male strangers, who sometimes take drugs in the shared kitchen.


It's survival really, when you look at the kind of conditions that many of the families are living in and the huge pressure they're under

While the government has repeatedly said that those with NRPF are eligible for many of the UK wide support schemes, The Unity Project reported that less than 13% of the people they supported had been able to access the furlough scheme and less than 3% had received a self-employed grant, and many couldn’t access ESA either, due largely to being in precarious or potentially exploitative employment.

There was also some confusion as to whether those with NRPF were covered by the government’s Everyone In scheme, which provided emergency accommodation to nearly 15,000 people who were rough sleeping or otherwise unable to comply with “lockdown” due to their living arrangements at the start of the pandemic. Councils were told to “use their judgement” to assess support they could legally give, leading to difficult decisions around legality and finances, and reports of some people with NRPF being turned away.

“Because of NRPF a lot of the provision out there hasn't been applicable for them so they've got very limited routes of what they can turn to in terms of - I was going to say support, but actually, it's survival really, when you look at the kind of conditions that many of the families are living in and the huge pressure they're under,” Leon adds.

For migrants and families who become destitute, there are two main avenues for support.

Firstly, families may be able to access support from their local authorities under Section 17 of the Children Act 1989 if the welfare of a child is at risk, with 8,117 families with at least 16,331 dependents being supported this way between 2015 and 2019. Charities report that the money provided by local authorities was often very limited – under £3 per child per day.

Councils may also provide basic safety net support if there is “a genuine care need that does not arise solely from destitution”, for example, such as community care needs or migrants with serious health problems.

Secondly, migrants can apply to the Home Office to have the condition lifted if they are destitute, at risk of destitution, have exceptional financial circumstances, or the welfare of a child is at risk. Home Office data shows that the number of people with NRPF who applied to have it lifted increased by 567% in the first three months of the pandemic, with 5,665 applications and a 89% success rate.



The process is labyrinthine. “We have seen cases with people having to send 15 separate emails each with huge attachments,” says Leon. “It’s a huge burden especially as we're talking about families who sometimes don't have smartphones. If they do, they have very limited data and the pandemic has made it worse, they can no longer go to a drop in centre and see someone face to face to provide evidence, instead they're having to go into a supermarkets or shopping centre, to access Wi-Fi to be able to send over these documents. There’s also a lot of back and forth - so it's a really challenging process.”

The average time taken for the Home Office to process an application between April and June 2020 was 30 days – with some cases taking up to four months. However, charities working with those with NRPF say that the government’s processing speed has improved over the course of the pandemic. People without internet access or who are not confident using a computer can access phone support to complete their application, although this is not widely referenced among charities supporting those with NRPF.

As well as lack of access to government schemes, there are also sector-specific demographic challenges to contend with. Migrants subject to NRPF are disproportionately represented in the food, drink, accommodation and hospitality sectors, with Migration Exchange analysis revealing that around 16% (74,000) of migrants arriving in the UK from non-EU countries work in a business that was largely or entirely shut down in the first lockdown.

However, as Tier 2 and 3 restrictions are introduced across the country, again hitting the food, drink, hospitality and accommodation sectors the hardest, questions have been raised again about whether the government have considered the needs of the 1.4 million people living with NRPF in their calculations.


It’s another sneaky way of excluding certain people from support without explicitly saying people with NRPF can’t apply, which is obviously a public health risk

One such example is the Chancellor’s recent announcement that workers in impacted sectors in Tier 3 will still receive 67% of their pay if their places of work have to shut down, compared to 80% when the furlough scheme was running.

In the House of Commons on Wednesday, health minister Ed Argar said that those losing a third of their income should apply for Universal Credit – something which is not accessible to most with NRPF, leading charities to accuse the government of “stacking disadvantage upon disadvantage”.

Timms told The House that: “Yet again, the government is overlooking hard-working families with No Recourse to Public Funds. They cannot access this Universal Credit top up. So, in Tier 3 areas, many will receive just 67% of the national minimum wage. More families will be forced into hunger and destitution.”

“It’s typical of everything they’ve done with NRPF,” says Caz Hattam, from The Unity project. “It’s another sneaky way of excluding certain people from support without explicitly saying people with NRPF can’t apply, which is obviously a public health risk.”

For some the concern is that the issue will soon be forgotten. “The pandemic has exacerbated existing problems,” adds Hattam. “We're worried that after the initial shock of the pandemic, people might think that the problems have gone away, and they most definitely won't have done - if anything, the inequality and discrimination faced by people with NRPF will be worse.”

A government spokesperson said:

“The government has acted decisively to ensure that everyone is supported through this crisis, including those who have no recourse to public funds.

“Many of the wide-ranging coronavirus measures we have put in place are not considered public funds, and individuals who have a right to be in the UK on account of their family life or other human rights reasons can apply to have the NRPF condition lifted if their financial circumstances change.”

*Names changed for anonymity