Friday, April 15, 2022

A swarm of 85,000 earthquakes at the Antarctic Orca submarine volcano

In a remote area, a mix of geophysical methods identifies magma transfer below the seafloor as the cause

Peer-Reviewed Publication

GFZ GEOFORSCHUNGSZENTRUM POTSDAM, HELMHOLTZ CENTRE

The Carlini base on King George Island (Antarctica) 

IMAGE: THE CARLINI BASE ON KING GEORGE ISLAND, HOSTING THE SEISMOMETER LOCATED CLOSEST TO THE SEISMIC REGION, AND THE BRANSFIELD STRAIT view more 

CREDIT: (PHOTO: MILTON PERCY PLASENCIA LINARES)

Volcanoes can be found even off the coast of Antarctica. At the deep-sea volcano Orca, which has been inactive for a long time, a sequence of more than 85,000 earthquakes was registered in 2020, a swarm quake that reached proportions not previously observed for this region. The fact that such events can be studied and described in great detail even in such remote and therefore poorly instrumented areas is now shown by the study of an international team published in the journal "Communications Earth and Environment". Led by Simone Cesca from the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) Potsdam, researchers from Germany, Italy, Poland and the United States were involved. With the combined application of seismological, geodetic and remote sensing techniques, they were able to determine how the rapid transfer of magma from the Earth's mantle near the crust-mantle boundary to almost the surface led to the swarm quake. 

The Orca volcano between the tip of South America and Antarctica

Swarm quakes mainly occur in volcanically active regions. The movement of fluids in the Earth's crust is therefore suspected as the cause. Orca seamount is a large submarine shield volcano with a height of about 900 metres above the sea floor and a base diameter of about 11 kilometres. It is located in the Bransfield Strait, an ocean channel between the Antarctic Peninsula and the South Shetland Islands, southwest of the southern tip of Argentina.

"In the past, seismicity in this region was moderate. However, in August 2020, an intense seismic swarm began there, with more than 85,000 earthquakes within half a year. It represents the largest seismic unrest ever recorded there," reports Simone Cesca, scientist in GFZ's Section 2.1 Earthquake and Volcano Physics and lead author of the now published study. At the same time as the swarm, a lateral ground displacement of more than ten centimetres and a small uplift of about one centimetre was recorded on neighbouring King George Island.

Challenges of research in a remote area

Cesca studied these events with colleagues from the National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics - OGS and the University of Bologna (Italy), the Polish Academy of Sciences, Leibniz University Hannover, the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) and the University of Potsdam. The challenge was that there are few conventional seismological instruments in the remote area, namely only two seismic and two GNSS stations (ground stations of the Global Navigation Satellite System which measure ground displacement). In order to reconstruct the chronology and development of the unrest and to determine its cause, the team therefore additionally analysed data from farther seismic stations and data from InSAR satellites, which use radar interferometry to measure ground displacements. An important step was the modelling of the events with a number of geophysical methods in order to interpret the data correctly.

Reconstructing the seismic events

The researchers backdated the start of the unrest to 10 August 2020 and extend the original global seismic catalog, containing only 128 earthquakes, to more than 85,000 events. The swarm peaked with two large earthquakes on 2 October (Mw 5.9) and 6 November (Mw 6.0) 2020 before subsiding. By February 2021, seismic activity had decreased significantly.

The scientists identify a magma intrusion, the migration of a larger volume of magma, as the main cause of the swarm quake, because seismic processes alone cannot explain the observed strong surface deformation on King George Island. The presence of a volumetric magma intrusion can be confirmed independently on the basis of geodetic data.

Starting from its origin, seismicity first migrated upward and then laterally: deeper, clustered earthquakes are interpreted as the response to vertical magma propagation from a reservoir in the upper mantle or at the crust-mantle boundary, while shallower, crustal earthquakes extend NE-SW triggered on top of the laterally growing magma dike, which reaches a length of about 20 kilometres.

The seismicity decreased abruptly by mid November, after about three months of sustained activity, in correspondence to the occurrence of the largest earthquakes of the series, with a magnitude Mw 6.0. The end of the swarm can be explained by the loss of pressure in the magma dike, accompanying the slip of a large fault, and could mark the timing of a seafloor eruption which, however, could not yet be confirmed by other data.

By modeling GNSS and InSAR data, the scientists estimated that the volume of the Bransfield magmatic intrusion is in the range 0.26-0.56 km³. That makes this episode also the largest magmatic unrest ever geophysically monitored in Antarctica.

Resume

Simone Cesca resumes: “Our study represents a new successful investigation of a seismo-volcanic unrest at a remote location on Earth, where the combined application of seismology, geodesy and remote sensing techniques are used to understand earthquake processes and magma transport in poorly instrumented areas. This is one of the few cases where we can use geophysical tools to observe intrusion of magma from the upper mantle or crust-mantle boundary into the shallow crust - a rapid transfer of magma from the mantle to almost the surface that takes only a few days."

 

Disclaimer: AAAS 

Few Americans see race as key factor in environmental inequality

Misperception presents challenge for environmental movement, policies

Peer-Reviewed Publication

WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY

PULLMAN, Wash. – Only 33% of U.S. households believe that Black people are more likely to experience environmental pollution and that this well-documented inequality is unfair, a Washington State University study has found.

A nationally representative survey of 1,000 U.S. households showed that many more Americans, 59%, believe that poverty is a root cause of environmental inequality. Only 37% believe that Black people are more likely than white people experience pollution, even though this is a statistical fact. Even among those who believe this environmental inequality is true, some still feel that it is “fair”— in other words, that it is up to the people living near polluting industries to work harder so they can move.

“A very small number of people in the U.S. believe that environmental inequality along racial lines exists, said Dylan Bugden, a WSU sociologist and author of the study published in the journal Social Problems. “This is a clear challenge for the environmental justice movement to try to convince the public that this is real.”

Environmental inequalities encompass a range of things from proximity to polluting industries to limited access to clean water and green spaces. It also includes the ability to mediate the effects of climate change, such as having air conditioning during heatwaves or being able to recover from wildfire or flood damage. Research has shown that Black communities statistically suffer environmental problems more than white communities of similar income levels.

For this study, Budgen analyzed data from an AmeriSpeak omnibus survey administered in May 2020.  Operated by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, AmeriSpeak scientifically selects panels of adults to be representative of U.S. households.

Bugden compared the survey participants’ views on environmental inequality to their responses to questions related to American economic mobility and “meritocracy” – essentially, how easy they felt it was for low-income Americans to improve their circumstances through their own hard work and talent.

The study also examined responses to what’s known as the “racial resentment scale.” Since few people in the U.S. will claim they are racist, researchers have developed a set of questions to assess more subtle beliefs, such as whether slavery and discrimination created conditions that make it difficult for Black people to advance, or whether Black people can improve their lives if they just “tried harder.”

When looking at the interplay among answers to questions in these three areas and environmental inequality, Bugden found a strong connection. People who scored high in racial resentment as well as beliefs that America is an economically mobile, meritocratic society also did not believe race played a role in environmental inequality, or that those inequalities were unfair.

“I've never had a finding quite like this where the effect was that big,” said Bugden. “It became very clear that there was a relationship between the idea that we live in a fair, ‘post-racial’ society and believing that environmental inequality exists and whether they supported doing anything about it.”

The researcher termed this connection “color-blind environmental racism.” A large portion of respondents did believe class, but not race, played a role in environmental inequality. Bugden called this classic color-blind ideology, a belief that denies racism exists in a situation that ultimately serves to perpetuate it.

The extent of color-blind environmental racism may be a significant obstacle for policy proposals like the Green New Deal, Budgen noted, which bring together social, economic and environmental policy.

“There’s a paradox: if you publicly identify racial inequalities in a policy, you may trigger a racial backlash from an American electorate that doesn’t believe they’re true and is unwilling to use resources to address their effects,” he said. “This is an old story, but it’s something the environmental justice movement will have to strategize around.”

Black Rhino extinction risk sharply increased by killing of specific female rhinos

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER

Rhinos in Kenya - Credit, Nick Harvey Sky 

IMAGE: RHINOS IN KENYA - CREDIT, NICK HARVEY SKY view more 

CREDIT: RHINOS IN KENYA - CREDIT, NICK HARVEY SKY

New research from The University of Manchester, in collaboration with Kenyan conservationists and scientists, has examined data from the Critically Endangered Kenyan black rhino populations which suggest that individuals really matter when assessing the impact of poaching on species’ survival chances.

The research published today in journal, Proceedings of the Royal Society B, demonstrates that poaching combined with individual rhino’s reproductive variance, or how successful mums are at raising young, leads to a greater than first thought risk to the survival of the black rhino.

In the case of these rhino, reproductive variance increased extinction risk by as much as 70% when combined with poaching.

Within black rhino populations (and most likely in most animals), some individuals have more babies than others. This variation increases existing estimates of extinction risk, especially when there is poaching. This is because indiscriminate killing can lead to some of these important animals which contribute a greater number of offspring being removed.

Susanne Shultz, Professor of Evolutionary Ecology and conservation at The University of Manchester said: “Preventing population declines is a crucial step for stopping biodiversity loss. In this study, we identified how losing key rhinos can make small populations very vulnerable, which can help us design more effective conservation actions.”

The new research is important because it shows that we may underestimate risk (or overestimate viability) if we do not recognise that some individuals contribute a lot more to the population (and their loss will have a much bigger impact).

Lead author on the work, Dr Nick Harvey Sky said: “This study shows that poaching has effects on rhinos beyond the death of targeted individuals. The deaths of healthy females that would have gone on to produce lots of calves can make whole populations more vulnerable to extinction.”

Estimating the extinction risk faced by different populations is vital for conservation. This can be affected by differences in breeding success between individual females (called reproductive skew), but reproductive skew is not often included in predictions of future population growth because it requires detailed individual breeding histories.

This information is available for the Critically Endangered eastern black rhino because of intensive monitoring to protect them from poaching. The University of Manchester has collaborated closely with Kenyan rhino managers, scientists and security teams who have meticulously recorded births and deaths for decades. Across three Kenyan populations of black rhinos on Lew Wildlife Conservancy, Ol Pejeta Conservancy and Ol Jogi Wildlife Conservancy, the researchers found that there is significant variation in breeding success between females, with many females not breeding or doing so very slowly.

Dr John Jackson, Post-doctoral researcher at the University of Oxford said: “For me, our study really highlights a deadly combination of small populations, individual differences, and poaching for vulnerable populations. When working in combination, these factors can completely reshape the fate of an endangered species.”

Crucially, variation in female breeding success can exacerbate the effects of poaching, especially on small populations. If key individuals, ones that breed very well, are killed then it can make the whole population more vulnerable to extinction. This highlights how important it is to protect rhinos from poaching. It may be possible to even out the variation in breeding success by creating new rhino reserves, moving rhinos between current reserves, or even creating more valuable habitat, but the causes of reproductive skew must first be identified. Differences between individuals in their contribution of young to at risk populations is likely an issue across many more species and should be evaluated when assessing their risk of extinction.

EVERYDAY CHEMISTRY

Structure of the active ingredient bismuth subsalicylate in Pepto-Bismol revealed

Peer-Reviewed Publication

STOCKHOLM UNIVERSITY

Bottle of Pepto-Bismol stomach reliever 

IMAGE: BOTTLE OF PEPTO-BISMOL STOMACH RELIEVER view more 

CREDIT: MATHIAS NERO

Researchers at Stockholm University have applied advanced electron microscopy techniques to finally unveil the structure of the widely used and century-old active pharmaceutical ingredient bismuth subsalicylate. The discovery provides a major step towards understanding the properties of one of the most commercially significant bismuth compounds, and highlights modern methods of gaining insight into long-used pharmaceutical ingredients. The results are published today in the scientific journal Nature Communications.

Despite its century-long history as an established antimicrobial and anti-inflammatory agent, particularly effective in the treatment of nausea, diarrhea and upset stomach, the structure of bismuth subsalicylate has hitherto remained unknown.

“I remember while growing up, my mom always gave me Pepto-Bismol whenever I had an upset stomach. Apparently over 10 billion doses have been consumed, making bismuth subsalicylate the most commercially significant bismuth compound, sold around the world as a common over-the-counter drug and widely referred to in pop culture. We were surprised to realize that there was a lack of understanding of its structure at a molecular level,” says Ken Inge, researcher at the Department of Materials and Environmental Chemistry (MMK) at Stockholm University. “Understanding the structures of pharmaceutical compounds is vital for predicting their properties.”

Possible antibiotic-resistance breakers

The use of bismuth in pharmaceutical formulations comes with several potential advantages.
“An interesting aspect of bismuth compounds is that recent studies have shown that they can reverse antibiotic resistance in bacteria, which is a very pressing topic in society today. The chemistry of bismuth and its compounds is still not that well understood, and so we are interested in investigating the molecular make-up of these materials,” says Ken Inge.

Advanced microscopy revealed a structure in disorder

The bismuth compound is used as a textbook example of an inorganic pharmaceutical compound, despite its structure previously not being known and hence has often been described with a speculative structure as a simple metal complex. By using advanced transmission electron microscopy, the researchers were able to investigate the structure at a molecular level, and even to take pictures of the molecules.

“By using the advanced microscopes at Stockholm University, it is possible to obtain images with atomic resolution, which was a key part of understanding the molecular packing within the bismuth subsalicylate crystals,” says Tom Willhammar, fellow researcher at the Department of Materials and Environmental Chemistry. “Characterization of bismuth subsalicylate by traditional methods, such as X-ray diffraction, was not enough to reveal the molecular packing due to its tendency to only form as very small crystals. We also found out that the packing contains intrinsic defects.”

Analysis of three-dimensional electron diffraction data from crystals of bismuth subsalicylate revealed a layered structure that was partially in disorder.
“A detailed investigation using high-resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy showed variations in the stacking of the layers. It is likely that this has hindered structure determination by other means,” says Tom Willhammar.


CAPTION

Researchers at Stockholm University have applied advanced electron microscopy techniques to finally unveil the structure of the widely used and century-old active pharmaceutical ingredient bismuth subsalicylate.

CREDIT

Mathias Nero

CAPTION

The research team at Stockholm University. Dr Ken Inge to the right.

CREDIT

Mathias


New materials to capture pollution

The results highlight the possibility of using modern methods to acquire insight into well-known and long-used pharmaceutical compounds.

“These modern electron crystallography techniques provide a toolbox for structure determination of active pharmaceutical ingredients and drug discovery,” says Erik Svensson Grape, doctoral student at Stockholm University.

The investigations have inspired the researchers even in other areas of research.

“It has made all of us very excited. Through these investigations we have been inspired to study and develop novel materials for a large range of applications even beyond pharmaceuticals, such as the sequestration of pollutants,” says Erik Svensson Grape at Stockholm university.

Find the publication: Structure of the active pharmaceutical ingredient bismuth subsalicylate. Nature Communications.
DOI number: 10.1038/s41467-022-29566-0

Contact:
Dr Ken Inge, Assistant professor, Department of Materials and Environmental Chemistry, Stockholm University, E-mail: andrew.inge@mmk.su.se 

Dr. Tom Willhammar, researcher, Department of Materials and Environmental Chemistry, Stockholm University, E-mail: tom.willhammar@mmk.su.se

The Politecnico di Milano takes part in the restoration of the floor of the Church of the Holy Sepulchre

The Heritage-BIM detection system designed by the University

Business Announcement

POLITECNICO DI MILANO

Three-dimensional view of the HBIM model of the floor and of the laser scanner data in the area of the Anastasis Rotunda of the Church of the Holy Sepulchre. 

IMAGE: THREE-DIMENSIONAL VIEW OF THE HBIM MODEL OF THE FLOOR AND OF THE LASER SCANNER DATA IN THE AREA OF THE ANASTASIS ROTUNDA OF THE CHURCH OF THE HOLY SEPULCHRE. THE RESTORATION WORK MUST TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE COMPLEX ARCHITECTURE OF THE BUILDING, ALSO MADE UP OF ROOMS AND UNDERGROUND STRATIFICATIONS - POLITECNICO DI MILANO view more 

CREDIT: POLITECNICO DI MILANO

The Politecnico di Milano has created the guidelines for modelling and sharing data for the project of conservation and restoration of the floor of the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem and has performed a detailed survey to document the state of conservation prior to the intervention.

The researchers created models of the floor and the surrounding architecture, starting from the laser scanner data. This laser scanner data was acquired by the project coordination group on site, in the midst of the pandemic (led by architect Osama Hamdan).

The high-resolution photogrammetric survey, carried out on site by researchers from the Politecnico between September and October 2021, acquired over 50,000 high-resolution images, using a system designed ad hoc.

“The system we designed,” explains Prof. Luigi Fregonese from the Department of Architecture, Construction Engineering and Built Environment at the Politecnico di Milano, “consists of a special trolley on which we engineered an articulated lighting and acquisition system, with controlled intensity and colouring. This was integrated with a topographic survey for processing and verifying the final result, a digital image, an orthophoto, with very high resolution, metrically reliable and precise, of the entire floor of the Church of the Holy Sepulchre.”

The research group from the Politecnico, MantovaLAB - HESUTECH group from the Politecnico di Milano Mantua Campus (ABC Department), which is coordinated by professors Andrea Adami, Luigi Fregonese, Stefano della Torre and the Vice Rector of the Mantua Campus Federico Bucci, worked in continuous coordination with the internal staff at the church, in order to avoid interference with normal liturgical activities and visits by pilgrims and tourists who, despite the pandemic, still filled the church every day.

The project manager for the conservation and restoration of the floor - the start of which has recently been announced - on behalf of the Custody of the Holy Land, is the Centro di Conservazione e Restauro La Venaria Reale [CCR-VR] in Turin, with the support of a multidisciplinary team, while the direction of the archaeological excavation has been entrusted to La Sapienza University of Rome.

The rise of climate extremes: The example of 2021

Peer-Reviewed Publication

INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Good Development - climate science for service partnership China 

VIDEO: DR KALLI FURTADO, MET OFFICE, AND DR ZHANG WENXIA, THE INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS (IAP) CHINA, TALK TO PROFESSOR PAUL MONKS ABOUT THE INCREASING THE RISKS OF DROUGHTS AND FLOODS, WHAT CAUSES THESE CLIMATE EXTREMES TO OCCUR, AND THEIR RESEARCH INTO NEW INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE SERVICES TO PREDICT AND OVERCOME THE CHALLENGES OF THESE EXTREME EVENTS IN THE FUTURE. view more 

CREDIT: NEWTON FUND

2021 in China was marked by a series of highly unusual weather events including record cold conditions in January, freak dust storms in spring and severe flooding that swamped Zhengzhou in July. Beyond China, equally extreme cold conditions occurred in the US early in the year, followed by the record breaking heatwave in western Canada in the summer, and severe flooding in Europe in July.

A year on from the events, scientists at the Chinese Academy of Science’s Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Peking University, together with the UK Met Office, have reviewed the events, their causes and connections and their implications for the future. Evidence so far has indicated that a mix of internal, natural variability and anthropogenic climate change was likely to have played a hand in the events.

This short review is expected to serve as a reference for further climate event attribution, process understanding, and high-resolution modeling of extreme events. The work is published in Advances in Atmospheric Science as a News & Views paper.

“Our report has also highlighted the need to develop an operational real-time system of rapid event attribution in China to facilitate the understanding of climate extremes, and further, to adapt to and mitigate the ongoing climate change.” Said Prof. Tianjun Zhou, the corresponding author of the article.  

"Although individual events cannot usually be attributed themselves, to climate change, the likelihood of some of them has been altered as a part of climate change." Said Dr. Robin Clark with the UK Met Office, also one of the authors of the study. These types of issue are part of ongoing research in the Climate Science for Service Partnership-China (CSSP-China) project between China and the UK.

The CSSP-China programme, supported by the UK and Chinese governments through the UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund (the Newton Fund in China), began in 2014. It makes possible the creation of enduring and sustainable partnerships with a variety of leading Chinese and UK institutes, through workshops, scientist exchanges, and joint research and development projects that strengthen science and innovation capacity.

 

 Hokkaido University and Sony Group open the “Social Innovation Division for Planetary Boundary”


Business Announcement

HOKKAIDO UNIVERSITY

Tokyo, Japan — Hokkaido University (Sapporo, Hokkaido; President: Kiyohiro Houkin) and Sony Group Corporation (“Sony Group”; Headquarters: Minato, Tokyo; Chairman, President and CEO: Kenichiro Yoshida) announced today that they have jointly opened the “Social Innovation Division for Planetary Boundary*” at the University. Utilizing Hokkaido University’s academic knowledge and the Sony Group’s cutting-edge technologies, this initiative aims to develop technologies and solutions that contribute to resolving social and global environmental issues in the domains of agriculture, forestry, and oceanography studies.

In the days to come, the two partners will carry out joint research within Hokkaido University at the research units at the Global Research Center for Food & Medical Innovation (FMI) and the Research Faculty of Agriculture. There are also plans to conduct demonstration experiments anticipating practical implementation of the technologies and solutions developed, soliciting the cooperation of local corporations and government agencies in Hokkaido, with the ultimate goal of creating new industries and innovation.

Overview
Name:        Social Innovation Division for Planetary Boundary
Location:    Hokkaido University Global Research Center for Food & Medical Innovation (FMI) and the Research Faculty of Agriculture
Duration:    April 1, 2022 to March 31, 2024
Lead researchers: Professor Noboru Noguchi (Research Faculty of Agriculture, Hokkaido University)
                              Associate Professor Yoshitaka Uchida (Research Faculty of Agriculture, Hokkaido University)
                              Professor Masahiro Nakaoka (Field Science Center for Northern Biosphere, Hokkaido University)

Purpose of this initiative
The Social Innovation Division for Planetary Boundary is one of the industry creation divisions at Hokkaido University. Joint laboratories are established under the university’s industry creation divisions to promote continuous joint research between the university and the private sector, for a set period of time, to work on shared issues. The goal is to create industries with high added value for society and promote innovation.

In addition to conducting a wide range of research as a comprehensive university, Hokkaido University utilizes its vast campus of nearly 660 km2, something no other Japanese university possesses, to engage in field research in domains such as agriculture, forestry, and oceanography. Sony Group’s R&D Center utilizes sensing, communications, and AI technologies to promote projects that contribute to preventing environmental destruction, detecting predictive signs of natural disasters, and improving productivity in agriculture and the livestock industry.

Through joint research that makes the most of the knowledge of both parties, the new division aims to create innovative technologies and solutions that contribute to solving social and global environment issues faced by people around the world in the areas of agriculture, forestry, and oceanography, from the viewpoint of planetary boundaries.

Research details
Both parties will engage in joint research at the division focusing on the following three themes. 

1. Innovative Smart Agriculture (Professor Noguchi)
By applying sensing and AI technologies to research on smart agriculture using driverless tractors, etc., the goal is to achieve advanced agricultural DX, helping solve issues such as food shortages due to climate change and rising global population, and issues faced in agriculture such as worker shortages and aging agricultural workers.

2.Regenerative Agriculture (Associate Professor Uchida)
Modern agriculture drastically modifies the nitrogen and carbon cycle, impacting the global environment. In order to address these problems, the goal is to use sensing and other technologies to efficiently identify complex nutrient circulation processes in the soil, air and water, and help achieve sustainable, regenerative agriculture with minimal environmental impact by making full use of ecosystem services, working in collaboration with Hokkaido ranches.

3. Blue Carbon Sensing (Professor Nakaoka)
It is said that the ocean absorbs approximately one quarter of the carbon dioxide produced by human activities. Ocean monitoring systems equipped with sensing and communication technologies will be used to help promote research to understand changes in eelgrass and seaweed beds (blue carbon ecosystems), which are particularly adept at absorbing carbon dioxide. Doing so will contribute to sustainable preservation and management of the marine environment.

In addition to the above, research themes will be explored in wider domains including forestry resources (green carbon) and marine research.

Comment from Takao Masuda, Executive Director and Vice President, Hokkaido University, and Director, Institute for the Promotion of Business-Regional Collaboration, Hokkaido University
At Hokkaido University, we pursue not only advanced research, but also field research in close collaboration with the local community, as a comprehensive university. In our industry creation initiative, the new division will engage in research and development leveraging the combined technology of Hokkaido University and Sony Group, while utilizing the university’s vast field resources offered primarily by the Field Science Center for Northern Biosphere with its agricultural fields and research ranch, research forest, and maritime laboratory. I believe that the results will aid in solving global environment issues and achieving a robust primary production system.

Comment from Hisashi Tamai, Senior Vice President, President, R&D Center, Sony Group Corporation
We are truly fortunate to have this opportunity to work together with Hokkaido University, a leading research institution in this field with a noble vision of solving social and global environment issues. I believe the success of Sony Group’s business depends on a healthy Earth, and we will do our utmost to develop innovative technologies and solutions by combining the technologies of the two partners and communicating the results to the world together with Hokkaido University.

For additional details, please visit the following websites: 

Groundwater level threatens to fall in Germany due to climate change

Climate change directly affects groundwater resources groundwater levels in Germany threaten to fall in the next decades

Peer-Reviewed Publication

KARLSRUHER INSTITUT FÃœR TECHNOLOGIE (KIT)

KIT researchers study future development of the groundwater level. Forecasts reveal: Groundwater levels in Germany threaten to fall in the next decades. (Photo: Markus Breig, KIT) 

IMAGE: KIT RESEARCHERS STUDY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GROUNDWATER LEVEL. FORECASTS REVEAL: GROUNDWATER LEVELS IN GERMANY THREATEN TO FALL IN THE NEXT DECADES. (PHOTO: MARKUS BREIG, KIT) view more 

CREDIT: MARKUS BREIG, KIT

The experts from BGR and KIT used AI-based forecast models to find out how climate change will affect groundwater resources in Germany in the 21st century. They applied deep learning methods to assess on the basis of groundwater data from all over the Germany the development of groundwater levels for different locations and climate scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These scenarios ranged from an assumed increase of global mean temperature by less than 2 degrees Celsius until 2100, the target defined by the Paris Climate Agreement, to a moderate scenario (plus 2.6 degrees) to the so-called business-as-usual scenario that is based on the absence of any climate protection measures and an increase in temperature by up to 5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial level. “Our scientific study exclusively covered direct climatic impacts and changes. Anthropogenic factors, such as groundwater extraction, were not considered,” says Andreas Wunsch from KIT’s Institute of Applied Geosciences (AGW), first author of the study.

 

Forecasts Reveal: Falling Groundwater Levels Are Independent of the Scenario

According to the experts, all three climate scenarios studied lead to more or less strong developments with droughts, falling groundwater levels, and a changed water availability. While less pronounced trends were obtained for the two more optimistic scenarios, KIT and BGR experts found a trend towards significantly falling groundwater levels at most locations for the strongest of the three warming scenarios. “The results of this prognosis are particularly relevant to the near future, as this scenario is closest to today’s situation,” says Dr. Tanja Liesch, AGW.

“Future negative impacts will be particularly visible in North and East Germany, where the corresponding developments have already started. Here, longer periods of low groundwater levels threaten to occur by the end of the century in particular,” says Dr. Stefan Broda, BGR. For the two weaker warming scenarios, this trend is not that severe. KIT and BGR experts think that this indicates that the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions may have a positive impact on future groundwater levels.

The published results were obtained within the BGR project MENTOR that is aimed at developing an AI-based method for nationwide forecast of groundwater levels. (le-swi)

Left: Mean changes of the groundwater level (in percent) in 2100 compared to 2014 for all locations studied and climate projections for the business-as-usual scenario. Right: Heat maps of the modeled groundwater levels for an exemplary location. (Graphics: KIT/BGR) (IMAGE)

KARLSRUHER INSTITUT FÃœR TECHNOLOGIE (KIT)