The Companies Taking Advantage Of America’s LNG Boom

By Alex Kimani - Jul 21, 2022, 

• While oil pipeline capacity in the U.S. currently exceeds production, the country’s booming LNG and natural gas markets mean demand for infrastructure is soaring.
• The United States is projected to become the world’s largest exporter of LNG this year, and new LNG terminals and natural gas pipelines will be needed to continue this growth.
• Nearly all midstream companies in the U.S. are racing to take advantage of this opportunity, with new projects coming online and final investment decisions being made.

Over the past few years, dozens of U.S. midstream companies have set their sights on natural gas pipelines and export terminals as the U.S. natural gas and LNG markets explode while crude oil pipeline capacity continues to exceed production.

Natural gas projects are expected to be the fastest growing pipeline sector as production rises and shippers find new customers in Europe and Asia. Now, as analysts tell Reuters, it's all about boosting U.S. capacity and adding new pipelines to transport natural gas to LNG export terminals. 

"Everybody has pretty much given up on ever doing another long-haul pipeline anywhere outside of Texas and, maybe, Louisiana," Bradley Olsen, lead portfolio manager for Recurrent Investment Advisors' midstream infrastructure strategy, has told Reuters.

Europe's natural gas demand has skyrocketed as the EU tries to lower its reliance on Russian natural gas following its invasion of Ukraine. Europe has displaced Asia as the top destination for U.S. LNG, and now receives 65% of total exports. The EU has pledged to reduce its consumption of Russian natural gas by nearly two-thirds before the year's end, while Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have vowed to eliminate Russian gas imports outright.

The European gas crisis has only deepened after Russia cut off the gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria, ostensibly for failing to pay for gas in roubles, sending European gas prices soaring. The move marks a ratcheting up of tensions and could reduce supplies to Europe, as many pipelines pass through Poland en route to the rest of the continent. Adding to supply woes, Russia's Nord Stream 1 pipeline that supplies Germany has gone offline for scheduled maintenance. While it partially resumed operations on July 21st, Europe feared that it could be delayed for political leverage. 

Not surprisingly, Europe has become the top importer of U.S. LNG, taking about 65% of U.S. exports. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecast that the United States will surpass Australia and Qatar to become the world's top LNG exporter this year, with LNG exports continuing to lead the growth in U.S. natural gas exports and average 12.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2022. The United States currently ranks second in the world in natural gas exports, behind only Russia.

According to the EIA, annual U.S. LNG exports are set to increase by 2.4 Bcf/d in 2022 and 0.5 Bcf/d in 2023. The energy watchdog has forecast that natural gas exports by pipeline to Mexico and Canada will increase slightly, by 0.3 Bcf/d in 2022 and by 0.4 Bcf/d in 2023, thanks to more exports to Mexico. 

In contrast to natural gas, crude oil pipeline capacity continues to far exceed production. Currently, there are ~8 million barrels per day of Permian crude pipeline capacity, significantly more than the 5.5 million bpd of production, according to EIA and Morningstar figures.

Natural Gas and LNG Projects

The pivotal Permian Basin is preparing to unleash a torrent of gas and gas projects to meet exploding LNG and natural gas demand - coming just in time, given that limited takeaway capacity is expected to start being keenly felt in 2023, which could lead to negative pricing in the basin.

Energy Transfer LP (NYSE: ET) is looking to build the next large pipeline to transport natural gas production from the Permian Basin. Energy Transfer has also started building the Gulf Run pipeline in Louisiana to move gas from the Haynesville Shale in Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana to the Gulf Coast.

Energy Transfer is expected to report Q2 earnings on 3rd August 2022. The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter, based on five analysts as per Zacks Investment Research, is $0.28 compared to $0.20 for last year's corresponding period.

Back in May, a consortium of oil and natural gas firms, namely WhiteWater Midstream LLC, EnLink Midstream (NYSE:ENLC), Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN), and MPLX LP (NYSE: MPlX) announced that they had reached a final investment decision (FID) to move forward with the construction of the Matterhorn Express Pipeline after having secured sufficient firm transportation agreements with shippers.

According to the press release, "The Matterhorn Express Pipeline has been designed to transport up to 2.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas through approximately 490 miles of 42-inch pipeline from Waha, Texas, to the Katy area near Houston, Texas. Supply for the Matterhorn Express Pipeline will be sourced from multiple upstream connections in the Permian Basin, including direct connections to processing facilities in the Midland Basin through an approximately 75-mile lateral, as well as a direct connection to the 3.2 Bcf/d Agua Blanca Pipeline, a joint venture between WhiteWater and MPLX."

Matterhorn is expected to be in service in the second half of 2024, pending regulatory approvals. 

WhiteWater CEO Christer Rundlof touted the company's partnership with the three pipeline companies in developing "incremental gas transportation out of the Permian Basin as production continues to grow in West Texas." Rundlof says Matterhorn will provide "premium market access with superior flexibility for Permian Basin shippers while playing a critical role in minimizing flared volumes."

Matterhorn joins a growing list of pipeline projects designed to capture growing volumes of Permian supply to send to downstream markets. 

Early this month, WhiteWater revealed plans to expand the Whistler Pipeline's capacity by about 0.5 Bcf/d, to 2.5 Bcf/d, with three new compressor stations.

Source: Natural Gas Intelligence

Although the companies have not divulged the cost and revenue estimates of the Matterhorn, a project of that magnitude is likely to provide years of predictable cash flows to these producers--which, incidentally, are all high-dividend payers.

Oklahoma-based Devon, one of the Permian's top producers, recently said it expects Permian production to reach nearly 600,000 boe/d in the second quarter. The new pipeline will help support the company as it increases its production in the Permian in the coming years. DVN stock currently yields (Fwd) 7.3% and has returned 54.3% year-to-date.

MPLX has several other expansion projects under construction. The company says it expects to finish construction on two processing plants this year, and recently reached a final investment decision to expand its Whistler Pipeline. MPLX stock yields a juicy 9.2% (Fwd), but the stock has only managed a 2.1% YTD return.

Devon Energy is expected to report Q2 2022 earnings on 1st August 2022. The company is expected to report EPS of $2.29, good for 281.67% Y/Y growth. Enlink will report on 3rd August 2022 with consensus EPS being $0.06 vs. $-0.04 for last year's comparable quarter, while MPLX LP is expected to do so on 2nd August, 2022, whereby it has a consensus EPS of $0.82 compared to $0.66 a year ago.

Meanwhile, EnLink's cash flow has been rising thanks to higher commodity prices. The company has increased its capex range from $230 million-$$260 million up to $280 million-$310 million, which should drive growth in the near-term. 

Back in May, Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE: KMI) subsidiary launched an open season to gauge shipper interest in expanding the 2.0 Bcf/d Gulf Coast Express Pipeline (GCX).

Meanwhile, KMI has already completed a binding open season for the Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP), with a foundation shipper already in place for half of the planned 650 MMcf/d expansion capacity.

On Wednesday, KMI reported Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.27, beating by $0.01; GAAP EPS of $0.28 was in-line while revenue of $5.15B (+63.5% Y/Y) beat by $1.34B. 

For the full FY 2022, KMI expects to generate net income of $2.5B and declare dividends of $1.11 per share, a 3% increase from the 2021 declared dividends. 

In the LNG space, in May, the U.S. Department of Energy authorized additional LNG exports from the planned Golden Pass LNG Terminal in Texas and Magnolia LNG Terminal in Louisiana as the U.S. seeks to boost LNG exports to Europe.

Jointly owned by Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Qatar Petroleum, the $10B Golden Pass LNG export project is expected to become operational in 2024, while Magnolia LNG, owned by Glenfarne Group, will come online by 2026. The two terminals are expected to produce more than 3B cf/day of natural gas, although Magnolia is yet to sign contracts with customers. 

Previously, American LNG developers were unwilling to construct self-financed liquefaction facilities that are not secured by long-term contracts from European countries. However, the Ukraine war has exposed Europe's soft underbelly and the harsh reality is forcing a rethink of their energy systems. To wit, Germany, Finland, Latvia, and Estonia recently expressed the desire to move forward with new LNG import terminals.

Exxon is slated to report Q2 earnings on 29th July whereby the United States' largest independent oil company is expected to post EPS of $3.41 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 210%.

In May, the DoE approved expanded permits for Cheniere Energy's (NYSE: LNG) Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana and its Corpus Christi plant in Texas. The approvals allow the terminals to export the equivalent of 0.72 billion cubic feet of LNG per day to any country with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement, including all of Europe. Cheniere says the facilities already are making more gas than is covered by previous export permits.

Cheniere is expected to report Q2 earnings on 4th August, with EPS expected to clock in at  $2.76, good for a 411.11% Y/Y increase.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

Rosneft Begins Arctic Oil Terminal Construction

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jul 26, 2022

Russia’s oil giant Rosneft on Tuesday said it had launched construction works on an oil terminal for its Vostok Oil project in the Arctic, expecting the port to become the country’s biggest oil terminal by the end of this decade.

Vostok Oil, in Russia’s Far East, comprises several groups of oil fields holding an estimated 44 billion barrels of oil. Initial work on the project began in January 2021. The total cost of its development has been estimated at $170 billion over the lifetime of the fields. The Vostok Oil project in Russia’s Far North is close to the Northern Sea Route that Rosneft wants to use to ship oil to Asia.

Rosneft has also started drilling at the Payyakhskoye field, part of the massive Vostok Oil, the project’s chief executive Vladimir Chernov told Russian media on Tuesday. Rosneft expects oil to start flowing from the field in 2024, and the project Vostok Oil to deliver crude via the Northern Sea Route by 2027, Chernov was quoted as saying.  

Western analysts, however, doubt that Rosneft will be able to keep the timeline for the massive project’s development as Western sanctions are depriving Russia and its state-owned oil and gas firms of access to capital and technology.

Last year, Rosneft was looking to attract some of the world’s largest oil trading houses to the Vostok Oil project, offering them to become investors in exchange for oil supply contracts.

This year, investors are abandoning Russian projects after Putin invaded Ukraine. One of those major traders, Trafigura, said earlier this month that it had exited its 10-percent non-operational passive shareholding in Vostok Oil, selling the stake to a Hong Kong-registered trading company for an undisclosed price. 

The Western sanctions, which ban exports of technology for oil and gas to Russia, will also affect the timeline of the Vostok Oil development, analysts say.

The Payyakhskoye field, at which Rosneft started drilling today, could see first production by 2029 instead of in 2024, the Russian giant says, according to research firm Rystad Energy.

“Any delays in one part of the huge supply chain involved in the project will lead to the delay of the whole project,” Daria Melnik, senior analyst at Rystad Energy, told The Wall Street Journal earlier this month.  

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

Trade Unions Extend Strike At Shell's Prelude LNG

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jul 26, 2022

Trade unions in Australia have extended until August 11 their strike over a pay dispute at the Prelude LNG platform offshore northwestern Australia, extending the period in which the operator Shell would not be able to ship LNG from the facility.

The Offshore Alliance union and the Electrical Trades Union demand more pay in an industrial action that began in June. Shell was exporting LNG from Prelude last month, but production was taking place at reduced rates to match storage capacity amid the disruption of the tanker berthing process for vessels to pick LNG.  

Earlier this month, Shell said it was shutting down production at the LNG facility. Shell had already warned at the end of June that shipments out of Prelude would be disrupted due to the industrial action. The floating LNG production facility offshore northwestern Australia has an annual capacity of 3.6 million tons.

Prelude LNG remains shut down as the pay dispute escalates, and the trade unions on Tuesday extended bans for their workers that keep them from performing tasks such as the transfer and supply of hydrocarbons from the platform. 

Shell, for its part, declines to resume talks with unions until they call off the work stoppages, Reuters reports, citing a letter from Monday it has seen.

The disruption of LNG shipments from Prelude comes amid high LNG demand, especially in Europe, which is driving spot LNG prices and benchmark natural gas prices higher.

Europe is scrambling to secure more LNG as Russia slashed gas supply via the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany. Russia is further reducing flows via Nord Stream this week, to just 20% of the pipeline’s capacity, days after restarting the link at 40% capacity after regular maintenance. Russia’s reasons: another turbine at a compressor station is up for maintenance and repairs.

In addition, the Freeport LNG facility in the United States is shut down after a fire in early June and is not expected to resume full operations for another few months.  

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

Carbon Emissions On Track To Reach An All-Time High

By Robert Rapier - Jul 23, 2022, 

• As the world moved past Covid-19, global emissions increased by 5.6% between 2020-2021.
• Emissions are on a trajectory to reach a new all-time high this year.
• There is a huge disparity between carbon dioxide emissions of developed countries and those of developing countries.

Earlier this month the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022 was released, covering energy data through 2021. Previously, I provided a summary of the data.

Today, I want to focus on the trends in global carbon dioxide emissions.

A year ago, as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, BP reported a 6% decline in global carbon dioxide from 2019 to 2021. This was the largest such decline since World War II. It was widely expected that emissions would bounce back in 2021, and they did.

As the world recovered from the first Covid-19 wave, global carbon dioxide emissions increased by 5.6% from 2020 to 2021. That was the fastest growth rate in nearly 50 years. Emissions were only 0.8% short of the all-time high set in 2018. They are on a trajectory to reach a new all-time high this year unless a recession curbs global energy demand in the second half of the year.

There is a huge disparity between carbon dioxide emissions of developed countries and those of developing countries. The 38 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) are high-income countries generally regarded as developed countries. Carbon dioxide emissions in these countries have been in decline for 15 years, and are at approximately the same level they were at 35 years ago.

Non-OECD countries, on the other hand, have seen an explosion in the growth of carbon dioxide emissions. There are two primary reasons for this disparity.

First, coal played an important role in the early development of OECD countries, but it is now being phased out. The non-OECD countries are going through a similar development phase by using coal, and that is driving up their carbon dioxide emissions.

The second major reason is that the majority of the world’s population lives in developing countries. Their standards of living are increasing, and that generally entails an increase in energy consumption. Even though per capita emissions in these countries are low, a large population of people that is slightly increasing per capita emissions is having a large overall impact on global emissions.Related: World’s Top Oilfield Service Provider Raises Earnings Outlook

But this poses a major challenge in controlling the world’s carbon dioxide emissions. Around 60% of the world’s population lives in the Asia Pacific region. Per capita fossil fuel consumption is much lower than in the world’s developed countries, but billions of people slowly increasing consumption has been the driving factor behind rising carbon dioxide emissions for decades.

Since 1965, carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. and the EU haven’t changed much. But they have grown steadily in Asia Pacific region, reaching a new record high in 2021. Asia Pacific’s emissions are now over double the combined emissions of the U.S. and the EU.

It’s not just China and India either. Multiple Asia Pacific countries are both among the largest carbon dioxide emitters and are among the leaders in the growth of emissions.

I often encounter people who can’t seem to grasp why we aren’t addressing rising carbon dioxide emissions. These graphics illustrate the challenge.

Although the U.S. has put more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere over time than any other country, China is destined to surpass us. That’s why the U.S. can’t make much of a dent in this problem unilaterally unless we invent new technologies that can efficiently pull carbon dioxide from the air and sequester it.

Global carbon dioxide emissions have been driven by the Asia Pacific region for the past 50 years, and there’s no sign that this is slowing down. The world doesn’t stand a chance of curbing carbon dioxide emissions without figuring out a way to stop emissions growth in these populous developing countries.

By Robert Rapier, Oilprice.com

A Lifetime’s Consumption of Fossil Fuels, Visualized

VISUAL CAPITALIST on July 22, 2022


Visualizing the Fossil Fuels we Consume in a Lifetime

This was originally posted on Elements. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on natural resource megatrends in your email every week.

From burning natural gas to heat our homes to the petroleum-based materials found in everyday products like pharmaceuticals and plastics, we all consume fossil fuels in one form or another.

In 2021, the world consumed nearly 490 exajoules of fossil fuels, an unfathomable figure of epic proportions.

To put fossil fuel consumption into perspective on a more individual basis, this graphic visualizes the average person’s fossil fuel use over a lifetime of 80 years using data from the National Mining Association and Worldometer.
How Many Fossil Fuels a Person Consumes Every Year

On a day-to-day basis, our fossil fuel consumption might seem minimal, however, in just a year the average American consumes more than 23 barrels of petroleum products like gasoline, propane, or jet fuel.

The cube of the average individual’s yearly petroleum product consumption reaches around 1.5 meters (4.9 feet) tall. When you consider varying transportation choices and lifestyles, from public transit to private jets, the yearly cube of petroleum product consumption for some people may easily overtake their height.



To calculate the volume needed to visualize the petroleum products and coal cubes (natural gas figures were already in volume format), we used the densities of bulk bituminous coal (833kg/m3) and petroleum products (800kg/m3) along with the weights of per capita consumption in the U.S. from the National Mining Association.

These figures are averages, and can differ per person depending on a region’s energy mix, transportation choices, and consumption habits, along with other factors.
Global Fossil Fuel Consumption Rebounds Post-Pandemic

When the global economy reopened post-pandemic, energy demand and consumption rebounded past 2019 levels with fossil fuels largely leading the way. While global primary energy demand grew 5.8% in 2021, coal consumption rose by 6% reaching highs not seen since 2014.

In 2021, renewables and hydroelectricity made up nearly 14% of the world’s primary energy use, with fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal) accounting for 82% (down from 83% in 2020), and nuclear energy accounting for the remaining 4%.

Recent demand for fossil fuels has been underpinned by their reliability as generating energy from renewables in Germany has been inconsistent when it’s been needed most.

Now the country grapples with energy rations as it restarts coal-fired power plants in response to its overdependence on Russian fossil fuel energy as the potential permanence of the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline shutdown looms.
Growing Green Energy Amidst Geopolitical Instability

Domestic energy and material supply chain independence quickly became a top priority for many nations amidst Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western trade sanctions, and increasingly unpredictable COVID-19 lockdowns in China.

Trade and energy dependence risks still remain a major concern as many nations transition towards renewable energy. For example, essential rare earth mineral production, and solar PV manufacturing supply chains remain dominated by China.

Despite looming storm clouds over global energy and materials trade, renewable energy’s green linings are growing on the global scale. The world’s renewable primary energy consumption reached an annual growth rate of 15%, outgrowing all other energy fuels as wind and solar provided a milestone 10% of global electricity in 2021.

If the global energy mix continues to get greener fast enough, the cubes of our personal fossil fuel consumption may manage to get smaller in the future.

SCIENCE FICTION;FUSION

Science Made Simple: Fusion Nuclear Science and Technology

By U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY JULY 25, 2022

The Central Solenoid is a five-story, 1,000-ton magnet, in the center of the ITER. It consists of 22 miles of superconducting cables and will drive 15 million amperes of electrical current (millions of times more than in a house) in ITER’s plasma. Credit: General Atomic

Fusion nuclear science and technology specializes in investigating the extreme nuclear fusion environment. This environment has very high temperatures, particle fluxes, neutron irradiation, and other harsh conditions.

Fusion science and technology research includes the examination of designs and materials for future fusion power devices. It also includes new technologies and integrated systems for generating electricity from fusion reactions, breeding tritium (the fuel needed for the fusion reaction), engineering high-temperature superconducting magnets, and exhausting the extremely hot gases that are released during fusion.

Additionally, fusion nuclear science addresses challenges related to the safety and security of fusion energy. For example, fusion nuclear science is studying how to ensure the supply of tritium fuel and how to build fusion power plants that can be operated safely despite their exceptionally high heat and pressure conditions.

Fusion Nuclear Science and Technology Quick Facts

• ITER’s magnets use cables of a superconducting material, niobium tin, that combined measure more than 100,000 kilometers (60,000 miles) long. That’s enough to stretch around Earth’s equator twice.
• The United States is developing key fusion nuclear technologies including methods of using magnets to contain fusion and specialized materials that can withstand long exposure to extreme fusion conditions.

DOE Office of Science & Fusion Nuclear Science and Technology

In the Office of Science, fusion nuclear science and technology is funded within the Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) program since R&D in these areas support the development of fusion as an energy source.  The program supports multiple research areas including the U.S. Fusion Blanket and Tritium Fuel Cycle program.  Research focuses on methods of extracting the fuel from the blanket, which requires expertise from national laboratories, universities, and private industry.

Within the FES program, researchers develop essential technologies for the ITER project, including the central solenoid, one of the world’s largest and most powerful superconducting magnets. Other activities supported within FES include fusion safety and system studies. Fusion energy system studies look at long-term areas, such as a future fusion power plant, and determine gaps in fusion nuclear science and technology. Identifying these gaps help programs prioritize research efforts over time. 

CFS, UKAEA to collaborate on fusion research

26 July 2022

The UK Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) and the USA's Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) have signed a five-year Collaboration Framework Agreement aimed at advancing commercial fusion energy.

Inside the JET fusion training facility (Image: UKAEA)

The agreement establishes the terms under which a series of work projects between CFS (a Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) spinout company) and UKAEA will support the development of fusion energy and related technologies.

In a joint statement CFS and UKAEA said the scope of the collaboration could include: operations teams sharing and learning best practices from fusion experiments; access to fusion-adjacent technology facilities, including robotics; collaboration on fuel cycle technologies, neutronics modelling, systems integration models, advanced manufacturing, diagnostics, remote handling and remote maintenance; and collaborative work to identify and answer emerging plasma physics questions.

"This agreement is the result of a shared mission of both organisations to leverage innovative research and the speed of the private sector to support the fastest path to low-carbon commercial fusion energy - based on the same processes that power the sun and stars," they said.

"Achieving our shared missions to deliver low-carbon and sustainable fusion energy involves working at the forefront of science, engineering, and technology," said UKAEA CEO Ian Chapman. "This new collaboration agreement with CFS will help push these developments and capabilities, drive innovation and accelerate progress.

"Fusion presents an exciting opportunity for the UK and we're proud our ground-breaking work here continues to support economic growth and attracts such leading international partners."

CFS CEO Bob Mumgaard added: "CFS and UKAEA have a mutual interest and strong belief that public-private collaborations such as this represent a way to accelerate advances in commercial fusion energy technology and support CFS' plans to deliver commercial fusion as quickly as possible.

"UKAEA is a leader in fusion energy research and CFS plans to establish a UK presence as we leverage the combined skills and talents of both organisations to develop the fastest path to commercial fusion power on the grid."

CFS is collaborating with MIT to leverage decades of research combined with new groundbreaking high-temperature superconducting (HTS) magnet technology. These magnets will enable compact fusion power plants that can be constructed faster and at lower cost.

In May, MIT Plasma Science and Fusion Center (PSFC) signed a new five-year agreement with CFS to expand its fusion energy research and education activities.

CFS is working to build the SPARC prototype fusion machine which it says will pave the way for a first commercially viable fusion power plant called ARC. SPARC is described by PSFC as a compact, high-field, net fusion energy device which would be the size of existing mid-sized fusion devices, but with a much stronger magnetic field. It is predicted to produce 50-100 MW of fusion power, achieving fusion gain greater than 10.

The UKAEA conducts out fusion energy research on behalf of the UK government. It oversees the UK's fusion programme, headed by the MAST Upgrade (Mega Amp Spherical Tokamak) experiment. It also hosts the world's largest fusion research facility, JET (Joint European Torus), which it operates for scientists from around Europe.

Researched and written by World Nuclear News

The law professor who set out to dismantle Tunisia’s democracy

By Siobhán O'Grady and Mohamed Bliwa
Updated July 25, 2022

TUNIS — Soon after he was elected president of Tunisia in late 2019, Kais Saied strolled into his usual coffee shop in the capital as if nothing had changed.

Farouk Chihaoui, who serves shisha, or tobacco water pipes, at the cafe, could not believe his eyes. Here was the man who until recently taught university law courses, always parked outside in an old Peugeot, paid off his tabs, and “looked exactly like the people.”
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Except now, accompanied by security and greeted by a swarming crowd, he was their president. “I took a selfie like a friend would have. Frankly, it was pretty special.”

For Chihaoui, that encounter bolstered his belief, one shared among many of the president’s supporters, that Saied is one of them. He will vote “yes” Monday in a controversial referendum on a new constitution that Saied insists will lead Tunisia to a more prosperous future.

Resistance builds in Tunisia as populist leader seeks more power

Many other Tunisians believe the opposite will come true. They say Saied has spent the past year executing a drawn-out power grab and that his proposed constitution, published just weeks ago, was conceived through an illegitimate process. They say the referendum will only further cement his one-man rule and destroy the progress made since the country’s 2011 revolution overthrew dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and kicked off the Arab Spring across the Middle East.

With no minimum participation rate required and many of Saied’s opponents boycotting the process to avoid lending it credence, the referendum measure is widely expected to pass. His opponents criticized his decision to speak publicly about the referendum Monday in what they decried as a blatant violation of election silence rules. By late Monday night, election officials said turnout surpassed 27 percent, a higher showing than what many observers expected.

The vote comes one year to the day since Saied dismissed parliament and fired his prime minister, suddenly dividing the country between those who celebrated his decision as necessary to end an ongoing political crisis and those who decried it as a coup that threatened the survival of the only democracy to have come out of the Arab Spring.

The move, which came amid a deadly surge of coronavirus cases and political deadlock between the president and a divided parliament, was initially widely celebrated in Tunisia and threw Saied, a man who once seemed an unlikely candidate to wield such immense political power, into the spotlight.

His stilted manner of speech and insistence on using formal Arabic rather than the Tunisian dialect have earned him the nickname “RoboCop.” Even some of his supporters, including Chihaoui, acknowledge he lacks the typical charisma and gregariousness that so often accompanies a successful political figure.

Still, he ran for president at a moment when Tunisians, tired of a decade of failure to improve the economy and politicians who did not deliver on their promises, welcomed his status as a relative outsider in the political system and a perception of his trustworthiness. He won 73 percent of the vote.

He became immensely popular last summer with those who saw his drastic moves to suspend parliament as necessary to weed out corrupt or ineffectual officials, including in the moderate Islamist Ennahda party, once a dominant force in the government.

But for some of those supporters, the popularity was short-lived. Now the country, submerged in a worsening economic crisis and facing widespread political division, is grappling with what many of his onetime supporters see as the consequences of their earlier misconception.

Tunisia among nations with economic fallout from war in Ukraine

“He passed right under everyone’s nose,” said Abderraouf Betbaieb, a retired diplomat who has known Saied for decades and was part of his inner circle before quitting in 2020. “He plunged the country into crisis.”

Lawyer and politician Samia Abbou was never enthralled by Saied but was among those who applauded his unconventional intervention last July, hoping it would mark a fresh start for the country’s democracy.

But by September, when Saied announced an extension of the state of emergency and a further expansion of his powers, she felt he had veered too far off-script. Then, in December, he proclaimed that parliament would remain suspended until after a July referendum. Finally in March, he said parliament had been dissolved and has since replaced the members of the independent electoral commission with his appointees.

Now, she said, she feels certain the new constitution is just laying the groundwork for a “dictatorship.” “I cannot regret something that needed to happen,” she said of her support for his initial decision last July. But what came next “was done in bad faith. It was not honest.”

“He succeeded in dividing the people in two,” she said. “We have never lived through this, even under the regime of Ben Ali,” referring to the dictator ousted in 2011. “We have become fanatics, either for or against. People no longer smile together, even in a single family.”

Even the expert whom Saied tasked with writing the new constitution is among those now publicly decrying the president and boycotting the Monday vote, saying it would be an ethical “betrayal” for him to participate.

Sadok Belaid, the former dean of Tunis University’s law school who taught Saied as a young man, agreed this spring to lead the consultative commission responsible for crafting the new legal document. He had known Saied for decades, he said, and described him as having been “very affable, very nice, very modest.”

For weeks, Belaid recalled, he worked tirelessly on the project. The day after he submitted his completed version of the new constitution, he said, he checked into the hospital for an operation he had postponed to write the document.

Later that day, in his hospital bed and still under the effects of anesthesia, he said Saied visited him and handed him a pile of papers he described as a modified version of his work.

It was not until the president left that Belaid, who is in his 80s, realized he was holding an entirely different version of the constitution, one that Saied appeared to have largely written himself. The new version hands Saied further powers and reduces the influence of parliament, among other changes widely condemned by his opponents.

Tunisians attend a protest against the referendum on a new constitution. (Mohamed Messara/Shutterstock)

“It is a true comedy” that “ends badly,” Belaid said. “The reality is that the president used this prestige he has in the eyes of the population to pass a text that does not respond to the needs or demands of the people but to his own intentions.”

Back at the cafe, Chihaoui, said it was indeed Saied’s reputation as someone “cultivated” that drew him toward his candidacy. Still, in a Tunisia racked by political infighting, “I thought it was a dream.” He said, “A man of the people becoming president? It was not too logical.” Now that Saied is in power, he said, he supports any decision the president may make. “Everything he does is for the people.”

Just outside the cafe, Sami bin Mohamed, 42, a salesman, expressed a much less optimistic opinion. Smoking a cigarette, he bemoaned the worsening economic situation and said he will boycott the referendum. “Any president works for his own good,” he said. In poorer neighborhoods, he added, “everyone is planning to leave illegally. I don’t think it is possible to fix stuff around here.”

Downtown on Saturday, a small crowd gathered to protest the referendum and voice their support for the Ennahda party. “We are here because Mr. Kais Saied is doing a coup in Tunisia,” said Fathia Azaiz, 63. “He is changing everything,” she said. “The president is isolating himself and not being democratic.”

Nearby, Kawthar Guettiti, 36, a graphic designer, was walking with her 6-year-old daughter, who held a small Tunisian flag. She will be voting “yes” on Monday, she said, because she trusts that Saied intends to put the country on a sturdier path for her daughter’s future. “He has a background in law. He knows very well what he is doing. He won’t be a dictator any more than the others,” she said.



By Siobhán O'GradySiobhán O’Grady is The Washington Post's Cairo bureau chief, covering North Africa and Yemen. Twitter