4 Social Security Changes Joe Biden Wants to Make: Is 2023 the Year They Become Reality?

By Sean Williams – Dec 10, 2022 

Motley Fool 

KEY POINTS

America's top retirement program could be forced to cut benefits by 23% in 2034.

Prior to being elected president, Joe Biden laid out a four-point plan to strengthen Social Security.

A new Congress in 2023 offers little hope for reform.


Social Security has a $20 trillion problem, and President Biden believes he has the solution.

THE REASON IS THAT CONGRESS RAIDS SOCIAL SECURITY FOR PROGRAM FUNDING

For most Americans, Social Security doesn't just provide "some check" they'll receive after they retire. According to national pollster Gallup, Social Security supplies a source of income retirees deem necessary to make ends meet. Since 2002, anywhere from 80% to 90% of annually surveyed retirees lean on their monthly payout to some degree to cover their expenses.

Although Social Security is the U.S.'s most successful retirement program, having provided retired workers with benefits for 82 years (and counting), it's on shaky ground. And as the sustainability of Social Security payouts comes into question, it's lawmakers who come into focus -- specifically President Joe Biden.

JOE BIDEN LISTENING TO THEN-PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA. IMAGE SOURCE: OFFICIAL WHITE HOUSE PHOTO BY PETE SOUZA.

Could you handle a 23% cut to your Social Security benefit?

Since retired worker payouts began in 1940, the Social Security Board of Trustees has released a report each year that examines the financial state of the program. This often-lengthy report takes into account demographic changes, fiscal policy implemented by Congress, and a multitude of other factors to provide an all-encompassing look at how firm the foundation is for Social Security over the short term (the next 10 years) and long term (the next 75 years).

The problem is that the Trustees Report has been warning that long-term revenue wouldn't be sufficient to cover payouts, including cost-of-living adjustments (COLA), since 1985. As time has passed, the projected long-term cash shortfall has grown. The 2022 Trustees Report estimates that Social Security has a $20.4 trillion cash deficiency through 2096.

If there's a positive takeaway here, it's that Social Security can't go bankrupt as long as people keep working. Around 90% of the revenue collected by Social Security comes from the 12.4% payroll tax on earned income, such as wages and salary. But just because Social Security is in no danger of insolvency, that doesn't mean it's financially healthy.

Without any changes, the Trustees Report predicts the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, which is responsible for doling out payments to more than 48 million retired workers each month, will require an across-the-board 23% benefit cut by 2034. For the typical retired worker, we'd be talking about thousands of dollars in reduced annual benefits.

Biden has offered a four-point plan to strengthen Social Security

With Social Security's dilemma well-known, Biden laid out a four-point plan to strengthen the program while on the campaign trail prior to his 2020 election. The core of Biden's proposal involves generating more payroll tax revenue, as well as increasing benefits for aged beneficiaries and lifetime low-earners who need it most.

1. Lift payroll taxation on high earners

The most notable change proposed by Biden involves collecting more payroll tax revenue from high-earning workers. In 2023, all earned income between $0.01 and $160,200 is subject to the 12.4% payroll tax. However, wages and salary above $160,200 aren't subjected to this tax. Well over $1 trillion in earned income "escapes" the payroll tax this way every year.

Biden's plan would reinstate the payroll tax on earned income above $400,000, while creating a doughnut hole between the maximum taxable earnings cap (the $160,200 figure in 2023) and $400,000 where earned income would remain exempt. Since the maximum taxable earnings cap increases over time, this doughnut hole would eventually close and subject all earned income to the payroll tax.

2. Change Social Security's measure of inflation from the CPI-W to the CPI-E

The other sweeping change Biden is offering is to shift the program's inflationary tether from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E).

The issue with the CPI-W is that it tracks the spending habits of "urban wage earners and clerical workers," which doesn't make much sense when senior citizens make up the bulk of Social Security beneficiaries. Since the CPI-E specifically tracks the expenditures of seniors, it should result in more accurate cost-of-living adjustments being passed along to beneficiaries.

3. Increase the special minimum benefit

A third Social Security reform proposed by Biden involves increasing the special minimum benefit paid to lifetime low-earning workers.

This year, the maximum payout for a lifetime low-earner with 30 years of coverage is just $951 per month. That's more than $180/month below the federal poverty level for a single filer. Under Biden's plan, the special minimum benefit would rise to 125% of the federal poverty level. For a lifetime low-earner, it would mean a monthly payout boost of nearly $500.

4. Boost the primary insurance amount for aged beneficiaries

The fourth and final change would see the primary insurance amount (PIA) steadily increased over time for older beneficiaries. Specifically, the PIA would grow by 1% annually from ages 78 through 82 until a 5% cumulative increase was realized.

The purpose of boosting the PIA is to account for higher late-in-life expenditures. As we age, things like medical transportation costs and prescription drugs can become costlier. This would help offset some of those expenses.


IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.

Is 2023 the year Biden's Social Security plan becomes reality?

The all-important question is: Will a new year will bring new opportunities for Joe Biden to leave his mark on America's top retirement program?

The answer is almost assuredly no.

One thing the New Year will bring is a changed Congress. Following midterm elections, Democrats retained control of the U.S. Senate, while Republicans narrowly took back control of the U.S. House of Representatives. In other words, we're moving from a situation where Biden's party controlled both chambers of Congress to now only controlling one of them (assuming lawmakers vote strictly along party lines). That sort of deadlock usually leads to little legislation getting passed.

The bigger problem for Joe Biden, and pretty much every president for the past four decades, is that getting the needed votes in the U.S. Senate to amend Social Security has been impossible. Whereas a simple majority of the vote suffices in the House, 60 votes are needed in the Senate to make changes to the Social Security program. Neither party has held 60 seats in the Senate since the late 1970s. This means any major overhaul to Social Security will require bipartisan support.

As things stand now, both parties believe they have the superior plan to strengthen Social Security. While Democrats favor raising additional revenue and switching the inflationary measure to the CPI-E, Republicans prefer gradually increasing the full retirement age and utilizing the Chained CPI, which takes substitution bias into account, in place of the CPI-W. These proposals are ideologically miles apart, and neither side has been willing to work with their opposition to find common ground.

Even with a different Congress, Joe Biden has virtually no chance to enact his four-point Social Security plan in 2023.

Major car companies like Ford, Tesla, and Toyota are at 'high risk' of sourcing parts made by Chinese forced labor, a report finds: 'It's an industry-wide problem'

Jacob Zinkula
Sat, December 10, 2022

Tunahan Turhan/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

A new report found "massive and expanding" links between major car companies and China's Xinjiang region.

The Chinese government has been accused of committing human rights abuses in the region.

Similar accusations have been made in the past against Apple, Amazon, and Nike.

If you bought a car recently, some of its parts may have been made through forced labor in China.

That was the key finding of a six-month investigation undertaken by researchers from Britain's Sheffield Hallam University. In a new report, the researchers say their analysis of publicly available documents revealed "massive and expanding links" between major car companies and China's Xinjiang region, where evidence has emerged of human-rights abuses committed by the Chinese government against Uyghur Muslims, including forced labor, government surveillance, forced sterilization, and re-education camps. Some have called it a "genocide."

The 78-page report says "every major car brand" — including the likes of Ford, GM, Tesla, and Toyota — is at "high risk" of sourcing parts from companies linked to these human rights abuses.

"There was no part of the car we researched that was untainted by Uyghur forced labor," the team's lead researcher Laura Murphy told The New York Times. "It's an industry-wide problem."

A year ago, the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act was signed into law, which banned US imports of products made wholly or partly in the Xinjiang region, unless the company could prove they were not using forced labor. Since going into effect in June, customs officials say they've stopped 2,200 shipments — valued at over $728 million — from entering the US.

Car companies contacted by The Times "did not contradict the report," but said they were committed to ensuring their supply chains were free of human rights abuses. Insider reached out to Ford, GM, Tesla, and Toyota for comment.

In a statement, GM said, "We actively monitor our global supply chain and conduct extensive due diligence, particularly where we identify or are made aware of potential violations of the law, our agreements, or our policies," adding that its supplier code of conduct clearly prohibits any forced labor or abusive treatment of workers.

"It is not impossible to audit one's supply chain to identify risks"

The auto industry's supply chains are "closer to a ball of spaghetti than a linear chain," Simon Croom, professor of supply chain management at the University of San Diego, told Insider. The average automaker may have links to as many as 18,000 suppliers, including their direct suppliers, the suppliers of those suppliers, and so on.

The Sheffield Hallam report lists roughly 200 companies in China and across the globe with potential links to Xinjiang, where steel, copper, aluminum, batteries, and other components are produced.

Croom, who previously worked for Jaguar and wrote his PhD dissertation on auto supply chains, says he believes many supply chains — both in the car industry and elsewhere — have connections to forced labor in the region.

"I have been in no doubt that many supply chains incur forced and slave/sweat labor in their upstream tiers," he said, "and it is very clear the auto industry is one such example."

Per Croom, while many companies claim to lack full insight into their supply chains, "it is not impossible to audit one's supply chain to identify risks."

"There is no reason why auto manufacturers or other OEM companies cannot verify their supply lines," he said, "and I firmly believe the lack of transparency is a thing of the past and thus OEMs are willfully ignoring such abusive suppliers."

Susan Golicic, however, a supply chain professor at Colorado State University who previously worked at Chrysler, says that while she can't speak to the report's claims specifically, it can be challenging for companies to keep a full grasp on their extensive supply chains.

"When suppliers are beyond the third tier, it is often tough for the OEMs to keep track of what they are doing, as well as even who and where they are," she told Insider. "Some suppliers can be very small and may lack technology to easily communicate or provide transparency into the front end of the supply chain."

In response to supply chain challenges during the pandemic, many companies have taken steps to "onshore," "friendshore," or "nearshore" — parts of their supply chains, moving them back to the US, to countries that are political allies, or to countries that are closer geographically.

But while these shifts could provide companies greater transparency into their supply chains, many are likely to retain global exposure in the decades to come.

Peru's ex-president faced bigotry for impoverished past










 Peru's ousted President Pedro Castillo is escorted by police at the police station where he is being held in Lima, Peru, Wednesday, Dec. 7, 2022. Castillo was ousted by Congress and arrested on a charge of rebellion Wednesday after he sought to dissolve the legislative body and take unilateral control of the government, triggering a grave constitutional crisis. (AP Photo/Renato Pajuelo, File)


REGINA GARCIA CANO
Fri, December 9, 2022 at 10:03 PM MST·4 min read

LIMA, Peru (AP) — When Pedro Castillo won Peru’s presidency last year, it was celebrated as a victory by the country’s poor — the peasants and Indigenous people who live deep in the Andes and whose struggles had long been ignored.

His supporters hoped Castillo, a populist outsider of humble roots, would redress their plight — or at least end their invisibility.

But during 17 months in office before being ousted and detained Wednesday, supporters instead saw Castillo face the racism and discrimination they often experience. He was mocked for wearing a traditional hat and poncho, ridiculed for his accent and criticized for incorporating Indigenous ceremonies into official events.

Protests against Castillo’s government featured a donkey — a symbol of ignorance in Latin America — with a hat similar to his. The attacks were endless, so much so that observers from the Organization of American States documented it during a recent mission to the deeply unequal and divided country.

Castillo, however, squandered the popularity he enjoyed among the poor, along with any opportunity he had to deliver on his promises to improve their lives, when he stunned the nation by ordering Congress dissolved Wednesday, followed by his ouster and arrest on charges of rebellion. His act of political suicide, which recalled some of the darkest days of the nation’s anti-democratic past, came hours before Congress was set to start a third impeachment attempt against him.

Now with Castillo in custody and the country being led by his former vice president, Dina Boluarte, it remains to be seen if she, too, will be subjected to the same discrimination.

Boluarte, a lawyer who worked in the state agency that hands out identity documents before becoming vice president, is not part of Peru’s political elite either. She was raised in an impoverished town in the Andes, speaks one of the country's Indigenous languages, Quechua, and, a leftist like Castillo, promised to “fight for the nobodies.”

The Organization of American States, in a report published last week, noted that in Peru "there are sectors that promote racism and discrimination and do not accept that a person from outside traditional political circles occupy the presidential chair.”

“This has resulted in insults toward the image of the president,” it said.

After being sworn in as president Wednesday, Boluarte called for a truce with the lawmakers who ousted Castillo on charges of “permanent moral incapacity.”

Peru has had six presidents in the last six years. In 2020, it cycled through three in a week.

Castillo, a rural schoolteacher, had never held office before narrowly winning a runoff election in June 2021 after campaigning on promises to nationalize Peru’s key mining industry and rewrite the constitution, winning wide support in the impoverished countryside.

Peru is the second-largest copper exporter in the world and mining accounts for almost 10% of its gross domestic product and 60% of its exports. But its economy was crushed by the coronavirus pandemic, increasing poverty and eliminating the gains of a decade.

Castillo defeated by just 44,000 votes one of the most recognizable names among Peru’s political class: Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former strongman Alberto Fujimori, who is serving a 25-year prison sentence for the murder of Peruvians executed during his government by a clandestine military squad.

Keiko Fujimori's supporters have often called Castillo “terruco,” or terrorist, a term often used by the right to attack the left, poor and rural residents.

Once in office, Castillo went through more than 70 Cabinet choices, a number of whom have been accused of wrongdoing; faced two impeachment votes, and confronted multiple criminal investigations into accusations ranging from influence peddling to plagiarism.

Omar Coronel, a sociology professor at Peru’s Pontific Catholic University, said while the corruption accusations and criticism of Castillo’s lack of experience have merit, they were tinged with racism, “a constant in any Peruvian equation.”

“One can criticize his political inexperience, his clumsiness, his crimes,” Coronel said. But the way in which this was framed, that it was because Castillo was from a rural community with different customs, "is a deeply racist discourse and tremendously hypocritical,” because right-wing presidents have also faced corruption allegations.

“Social media networks have been flooded with visceral racism during all these 17 months,” Coronel said.

Some of Castillo's remaining supporters have protested and blocked roads across the country since his arrest. They have also gathered outside the detention facility where he and Alberto Fujimori are held.

“They have called him all sorts of discriminatory words," Castillo supporter Fernando Picatoste said Friday outside the prison. “It’s a racial issue. In Congress, lawmakers, who supposedly have national representation, ... have the audacity to insult the president.”

___

Associated Press writer Franklin Briceño contributed to this report.

Kenya's Maasai warriors gather to celebrate "Maasai Olympics," a rite of passage







Kenya's Maasai warriors gather to celebrate "Maasai Olympics," a rite of passageKenyas' Maasai community resumes "Olympics" rite of passage after pandemic hiatus in Kimana

Sat, December 10, 2022 

KIMANA SANCTUARY, Kenya (Reuters) - Hundreds of youths from the Maasai pastoralists in Kenya gathered on Saturday at a wildlife sanctuary to participate in "Maasai Olympics," a ceremony promoted by conservationists as an alternative rite of passage for young men in the community.

The spectacle, in which youthful morans or warriors compete in various games and takes place once every two years, was held in Kimana Sanctuary on the foothills of Mount Kilimanjaro near Kenya's border with Tanzania.

The games that include spear throwing, athletics and high jump were improvised as an alternative ritual of transition to manhood for Maasai boys who traditionally were required to fight and kill a lion to prove their bravery and manhood.

To curb the practice, Maasai cultural leaders partnered with Big Life Foundation, a conservation pressure group, to provide an alternative rite of passage, eventually giving birth to the "Maasai Olympics" in which young men compete to earn medals and cash prizes.

"We now co-exist perfectly with the wildlife," community leader Matasia Nerangas said at the ceremony on Saturday.

"We share the same grazing fields and watering holes with the wild animals, and we stand to benefit more now than before."

Craig Miller, Chief Operating Officer of Big Life Foundation said the games had helped reduce the danger to lion population in the area.

"(The) program has had a huge impact on the lion population and it is one of the few areas in Africa outside of protected areas where lion population is stable or growing," he said.

Government-run Kenya Wildlife Services says there are about 2,000 lions in the East African country, and that the biggest threat to them and other carnivores is conflict with humans.

(Reporting by Edwin Waita; Writing by Elias Biryabarema; editing by Clelia Oziel)

Weird weather hit cattle ranchers and citrus growers in 2022. Why it likely will get worse.

Elizabeth Weise, USA TODAY
December 8, 2022

This has been a year of extreme weather, including ruinous floods, horrific hurricanes, unrelenting heat, drought and massive rainfall events. Farmers, always at the mercy of the weather, have taken a hit.

In 2022, so far there have been over a dozen climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

While harvests in the U.S. overall have been good, some crops were devastated.

In Texas, the cotton harvest was hit hard by drought. Hurricane Ian blew oranges off the trees in Florida. Rice farmers in California have left fields empty for lack of water, and cattle ranchers are sending more cows to slaughter because drought-stunted pastures can't support normal calving activity.

Climate change can't be directly blamed for every bad harvest or extreme weather event this year, but the effects of climate change – including drought and rainier hurricanes – hurt harvests across the nation in 2022. Climate models make clear more is coming.

It's a pattern scientists have been warning about for decades, that higher global temperatures will bring on "weather weirding."

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READ MORE: Latest climate change news from USA TODAY

Every year the farmers who feed our nation get smarter and more resilient, but it's increasingly stressful to adapt to the extreme variability they face, said Erica Kistner-Thomas, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

"One year they'll have the best year ever and then the next year they'll be hit with a major flooding event or drought," she said.

Here are some crops for which 2022 was a hard year:

Rice in California

The "megadrought" in the West, the worst in 1,200 years, has had an enormous impact on farming in California. Seven percent of the state's cropland went unplanted due to lack of water for irrigation.

Rice, which relies on surface water, was hardest hit. Over half the state's rice acres went unplanted, according to the USDA.

A fallow rice field near Dunnigan, California in 2022. Sean Doherty of Sean Doherty Farms was only able to plant four of his 20 rice fields in 2022 due to drought conditions.

"Rice is a major crop in California. We lead the nation in medium and short grain acres," said Gary Keough with the National Agricultural Statistics Service.

"A significant number of acres were not planted just because of a lack of water," he said.

In Colusa County north of San Francisco, fifth-generation rice farmer Sean Doherty was able to plant only four of his usual 20 rice fields.

"I've never experienced a year like this," he said. "There's just no comparison to other years whatsoever."

READ: What is climate change?

There was so little water that his fields, which normally would have held thousands of pounds of premium sushi rice, are instead bare dirt. "Just to keep my guys busy we re-leveled some fields to improve water efficiency," he said. But no amount of efficiency helps when there's simply no water to be had.

"You can't conserve your way out of an empty bucket," Doherty said.

At least for now Doherty is doing all right because he has crop insurance. But that won't help the businesses in his county that depend on farmers to survive. "My crop dusters don't have insurance; my parts store and fertilizer dealers, they've got no business," he said.

Citrus in Florida

Hurricane Ian hit John Matz's orange and grapefruit groves hard. He lost over 50% of his crop from it being blown off the trees.

"It's pretty disgusting to look at the amount of fruit that was on the ground," the grower in Wauchula, Florida, said.

Oranges in a Florida grove that were blown off trees after Hurricane Ian in October 2022. The state's citrus crop was significantly damaged by the hurricane and subsequent flooding.

The winds were only the beginning. Standing water damaged root systems. Even now, when the waters have receded and the fallen fruit has been counted for insurance purposes, more bad news is coming, said Roy Petteway, president of the Peace River Valley Citrus Growers Association.

"Trees are very sensitive; they're not like squash or cucumber," he said. "You might not see the full extent of the damage for eight months to a year."

He's not convinced that human-caused global warming is behind the weather shifts he's seeing, but there is definitely change in the land his family has held for generations in Zolfo Springs, Florida.

"I'm 36, and I've gotten through three once-in-a-lifetime storms." he said.

How is climate change affecting the US?: The government is preparing a nearly 1,700 page answer.

HURRICANES: Is climate change fueling massive hurricanes in the Atlantic? Here's what science says.

But after six generations in Florida, he's not about to give up. "We don't know how to fail. There's a reason there's an orange on our license plates."

Florida mostly grows citrus for juice, so there shouldn't be a big impact on consumer fruit prices, said Ray Royce, with the Highlands County Citrus Growers. But every time there's a storm that damages the crops, it's one more blow to U.S.-produced fruit.

"Replacement juice will be brought in from Brazil and Mexico," he said. "At some point for processors it's cheaper to ship it in. All the juice you drink now is a blended product of domestic and offshore juice."

Cattle in Texas

Look for beef prices to rise in 2023 and 2024 – in part because drought in Texas is forcing ranchers to send more cows to slaughter.

"There isn't enough grass to eat, and it's become too expensive to buy feed. We’ve had a large amount of culling this year because of drought," said David Anderson, a livestock specialist at Texas A&M University.

"We're sending young female heifer cows to feed lots because we don't have the grass to keep them," he said. Cows that would normally have a calf in the next few years are instead going to slaughter.

Beef slaughter is up 13% nationwide and in the Texas region, it's up 30%.

"In the short term, that means beef will be cheaper. This year we're going to produce a record amount of beef, over 28 million pounds," said Anderson.

But long term it will mean higher prices.

Those calves that might have been born in the spring of 2023 would be ready for slaughter in about 20 months. So in the fall of 2025, there will be fewer cattle to slaughter and higher prices.

"There's going to be a shortage of beef, and prices are probably going to go up," said the USDA's Kistner-Thomas. "This could also have a compounding effect on other meat prices as people switch from beef to chicken."

Today, Texas has about 14% of the nation's beef cow herd but as the climate changes, ranchers will face growing challenges.

"These events are getting more frequent," said Anderson. The state's experiencing more frequent severe droughts. And when the rains do come, they come differently than before, in intense bursts rather than over a longer period of time.

"You may get the same total rainfall, but you're going to get it all in one afternoon," he said. "The plants are adapted for one pattern, and we're not going to have that pattern anymore."

More: How a summer of extreme weather reveals a stunning shift in the way rain falls in America.

Almonds in California

This year's marzipan for Christmas won't be affected, but next year's might be, given the one-two punch California's almond groves took this year.

First, an unseasonable freeze in the last week of February killed some of the fruit just as it was forming. Then the ongoing Western megadrought forced farmers to choose between which trees could get enough water to actually produce.

A California almond orchard in bloom. In 2022, erratic weather and drought cut 11% out of the nation's almond harvest. An unseasonable cold snap in February kills some early fruit just after bloom while ongoing drought meant many growers didn't have enough water for their trees.

Some farmers are getting out of the business entirely or watering trees just enough to keep them healthy but not enough for good harvests — hoping for more water in the future, said Richard Waycott, CEO of the California Almond Board.

"Generally speaking, you grit your teeth and bear it."

The United States produces 82% of the world's almonds, almost all in California. In 2022, the harvest was down 11% from the year before. This year's production is expected to drop as much as 2.6 billion pounds.

Cotton in Texas

Texas is the largest cotton producer in the United States, but this year's drought has cut the harvest by at least a third, said John Robinson, a professor and specialist in cotton marketing at Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas.

"This year they're projecting less than 4 million bales; in an average year it's 6 million," he said. "Cotton was planted, then it just didn't even come up. There was a whole lot of land that was simply plowed up because the seeds never germinated."

That's called the "abandonment rate," the percentage of unharvested acres compared to total planted acres. This year's abandonment rate for cotton in Texas is 68%, "which is a record," said Robinson.
What does climate change mean for the future of US farming? Preparation is key.

Things would have been much worse if it weren't for advances in plant breeding, said Paul Mitchell, a professor of agriculture and applied economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.

"Crops are more resilient to dry weather than they were 20 years ago," he said.

As the kind of severe weather events that can devastate crops become more frequent, better breeds won't necessarily be able to save farmers, said Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, an economist at Cornell University who studies how agriculture is coping with environmental change.

"U.S. agricultural productivity is rising, but it's not becoming more resilient to extremes," he said. "When bad years start to line up, are we doing things to prepare for the unusual as it becomes more usual?"

Elizabeth Weise covers climate and environmental issues for USA TODAY. She can be reached at eweise@usatoday.com.

'Firmageddon': Researchers find 1.1 million acres of dead trees in Oregon

Evan Bush
Mon, December 12, 2022 

Drought-stricken Oregon saw a historic die-off of fir trees in 2022 that left hillsides once lush with green conifers dotted with patches of red, dead trees.

The damage to fir trees was so significant researchers took to calling the blighted areas “firmageddon” as they flew overhead during aerial surveys that estimated the die-off’s extent.

The surveyors ultimately tallied about 1.1 million acres of Oregon forest with dead firs, the most damage recorded in a single season since surveys began 75 years ago.

Oregon’s dead firs are a visceral example of how drought is reshaping landscapes in Western states that have been experiencing extreme heat conditions. In many areas, these firs might be replaced by more drought-hardy species in the future, reshaping how ecosystems function and changing their character.

“When I looked at it and crunched the numbers, it was almost twice as bad as far as acres impacted than anything we had previously documented,” said Danny DePinte, an aerial survey program manager for the U.S. Forest Service. “Nature is selecting which trees get to be where during the drought.”

Fir die-off as observed during this year’s aerial survey in the Fremont-Winema National Forest in southern Oregon. (Daniel DePinte / USFS)

Oregon is known for towering volcanic domes covered by a blanket of conifers that becomes sparse and patchwork on the eastern side of the Cascade Mountains before it tucks into the high desert.

The people who know the trees best say there are many signs of problems in Oregon.

“We’re seeing forms of stress in all of our species of trees,” said Christine Buhl, a forest entomologist with the Oregon Department of Forestry. “We just need to shift our expectations of what tree species we can expect to be planted where.”

Researchers have been surveying Pacific Northwest forests by air since 1947. Little about the process has changed during that time, according to Glenn Kohler, an entomologist with the Washington State Department of Natural Resources, which operates the program alongside the U.S. Forest Service and Oregon Department of Forestry.

Each summer, small high-wing planes soar about 1,000 feet above the tree canopy at about 100 mph. Trained observers peer outside both sides of the plane, looking for noticeable damage to trees.

Dead trees — conifers that are completely red or orange — are the easiest to spot, but the observers can also pinpoint trees that are barren of needles in some areas.

The observers rate the intensity of damage and map its location. Pilots fly in a grid pattern with flight lines about 4 miles apart to cover every swath of the forest.

“It’s literally like mowing the lawn,” Kohler said of the flight trajectory.

Paper maps of the past have been replaced today by Samsung Galaxy tablets that track the plane’s progress and make mapping easier — and probably more accurate.

Observers require a season of training, Kohler said. It can be a dizzying task.

Brent Oblinger, a plant pathologist on the Deschutes National Forest, while in the process of conducting a portion of the survey. (USFS)

“We’re analyzing 16-30 acres per second,” DePinte said, noting that small planes can offer a more turbulent ride. “You definitely have to have a stomach of steel.”

This year, the aerial observation program flew over about 69 million acres of Washington and Oregon forest in about 246 hours.

“We’re just really painting the picture. It’s not hard science. You’re not counting individual trees or inspecting individual trees. The purpose is — what are the major trends and to detect outbreaks,” Kohler said.

The scale of damage in Oregon, which was first reported by the environmental journalism nonprofit Columbia Insight, was staggering to the researchers and begs for a more thorough study.

“We had never seen anything to this level,” DePinte said. “It sets you back and makes you pause. Your scientific mind starts questioning why. We don’t always have the answers.”

Trees are susceptible to bark beetles, root diseases and defoliators like caterpillars. Aerial surveys help researchers capture the booms and busts of these pathogens.

Healthy trees typically can defend themselves against these threats. When beetles drill into a trees’ bark, for example, a healthy tree can push the beetles out by excreting pitch, a gooey substance, where they entered the tree, Kohler said.

Each summer, small high-wing planes soar about 1,000 feet above the tree canopy at about 100 mph, trained observers peer outside both windows of the plane, looking for noticeable damage to trees. (USFS)

But disturbances like drought, wildfire and windstorms can stress trees and weaken their defenses. Large numbers of dead and dying trees could allow bark beetles to lay eggs, feed their larvae and flourish.

Scientists still only have a coarse understanding of the factors that are causing widespread die-offs in Oregon, but many view drought as the underlying culprit.

“There are multiple factors at play here. One of the things most of us agree on: The primary factor we have going on here is hot drought,” Buhl said, meaning that the state has been hampered by higher-than-normal temperatures and also low precipitation.

DePinte said damage was most pronounced in White, Shasta and Red firs on the eastern side of the Cascade Mountain range’s crest, where the climate is drier.

Nearly half of Oregon is experiencing severe, extreme or exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The drought is worse in eastern Oregon.

Oregon’s average temperatures have risen about 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit since 1895, according to a 2021 state climate assessment delivered to the state’s Legislature. The severity of drought has increased over the past two decades in part because of human-caused climate change, the report says. Summers in Oregon are expected to become warmer and drier.

“We’ve been hearing about climate change for some time. Climate change is happening. We’re now feeling it,” Buhl said. “These summers are getting warm and long. We’re seeing evidence on the landscape. We needed to pay more attention decades ago, but we didn’t.”

Buhl said impacts to forest health are taking out roughly as many trees as wildfires, which are also now more likely and more intense by climate change.

Heat waves are a growing threat, too. On Oregon’s west side, trees were scorched by the June 2021 heat dome, which sent Portland’s temperature as high as 116. Scientists have said the intense heat wave was “virtually impossible” without climate change.

Fir die-off as observed during this year’s aerial survey in the Fremont-Winema National Forest in southern Oregon. (USFS)

Aerial assessments last year documented nearly 230,000 acres of heat scorch across Oregon and Washington, DePinte said. Most of the damage was on hillsides with south-facing aspects that soak up more sunlight because of the sun’s angle in the sky.

“It was the combination of the high temperatures in the afternoon with the sun boring down,” said Chris Still, a professor in the College of Forestry at Oregon State University. “We think a lot of those leaves just cooked in place.”

Still speculated that the heat dome could have contributed to this year’s fir die-off, also, but more research and evidence is needed to examine any possible connection.

DePinte said the 2021 scorching was the largest ever recorded, which means the Pacific Northwest has now seen two events of record-breaking damage in its forests in as many years.

CORRECTION (Dec. 12, 5:18 p.m. ET): A photo caption in a previous version of this article misidentified a researcher. The photo is of Robert Schroeter, not Brent Oblinger. The photo has been replaced.

Far right protests targeting the LGBTQ community show a troubling correlation with violent attacks

Charles R. Davis
Sat, December 10, 2022 

The white nationalist group Patriot Front attends the March For Life on January 8, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois.Kamil Krzaczynski/Getty Images

Right-wing extremists have held at least 55 protests targeting LGBTQ people this year, ACLED reported.

That is up from just 16 such protests in 2021, an increase of over 340%

According to ACLED, nonviolent anti-LGBTQ activity "strongly" correlates with violence.

Across the country, right-wing extremists with guns have been showing up at libraries and churches to intimidate parents and children attending drag queen story hours. Groups such as the Proud Boys conflate the reading of books by members of the LGBTQ community with the predatory "grooming" of kids.

Hospitals that provide gender-affirming care have received death threats after being targeted by social media influencers like Chaya Raichik, the former real estate agent who runs the "Libs of TikTok" account on Twitter, and featured in prime-time diatribes by Fox News's Tucker Carlson.

Other soft targets for the hard right have included gay pride parades. Over the summer, 31 members of the neo-Nazi Patriot Front were arrested in Idaho after a concerned citizen reported seeing them loading up a U-Haul with what looked to be a "little army" of men in riot gear.

By the end of November, far-right activists took part in at least 55 public actions targeting members of the LGBT+ community — up from 16 the year before, an increase of some 340% — with a corresponding rise in violent attacks on people perceived to be gay or transgender, according to a report released this week by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, or ACLED.

Open white nationalism is still the most common feature of far-right protests and militia activity, according to the group, which began monitoring the American far-right in 2020 after years of reporting on political violence abroad. Of the roughly 750 far-right events that have taken place this year — on track to exceed the 780 held in 2021 — some 21% have been explicitly racist in nature, a finding that comes after the FBI issued a report warning that white supremacists continue to "pose the primary threat" of domestic terrorism, account for more than half of all politically motivated killings over the last decade.

While racism remains the primary driver of the far right, anti-LGBTQ actions have "fueled the largest increase in far-right protest activity," the report states, with the rise in such activity "strongly" correlating with a rise in violent attacks, of which there have been no fewer than 20, including the murder last month of five people at a gay nightclub in Colorado Springs. Though we don't have a specific motive the suspect has a history of online and offline bigotry.

Such deadly attacks are often carried out by self-styled vigilantes who are not formally members of any far-right group, Roudabeh Kishi, director of research at ACLED, said in an interview. But where those groups are most active is tied to where attacks then take place.

"They have been inspired by the rhetoric that they might be seeing online, and by the mobilization they might be seeing offline," Kishi said. "Those people are then deciding to take matters into their own hands and engage in violence."

It is almost impossible to link any one act of violence to a specific instance of hateful propaganda to which the perpetrator was exposed. It is also hard to pinpoint the beginning of the latest moral panic: Are those on the extremist fringe doubling down on anti-LGBTQ activity because of its established salience as an issue among the mainstream right, or are they in fact driving the conversation?

"The reality is that there is a bit of a feedback loop here," Kishi told Insider. If a mainstream platform airs an attack on a minority group, then radicals will increase their activity around that sort of attack as a means of recruitment — while perhaps masking their other views, such as organizing under the guise of merely standing up for "free speech," a strategy known as entryism (ACLED's data shows that, despite such rhetorical appeals to the First Amendment, a far-right presence at a demonstration makes that protest "nearly five times more likely to turn violent or destructive").

The issue of the day will change over time. In 2020, it was pandemic restrictions, Black Lives Matter, and false claims of voter fraud. In 2021, anti-racism in education, dubbed "Critical Race Theory," was the issue that brought mainstream conservatives and right-wing extremists together. In light of a generally disappointing 2022 election for candidates who dwelled on issues of sex and gender, the next year will likely bring something different — if not altogether new (think "political correctness" in the 1990s becoming "wokeness" in the 2020s).

"It usually ends up being a resurgence of some kind of old narrative, packaged in a new way," Kishi said.

Israel's next finance minister brings religion to the front of economic strategy


Bezalel Smotrich the Israeli transportation minister arrives to attend a weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem


December 8, 2022
By Steven Scheer

JERUSALEM (Reuters) -Israel's incoming finance minister has said his economic strategy will be infused with religious beliefs laid out in the Torah, predicting that this would help the country prosper.

Bezalel Smotrich, head of the far-right Religious Zionism party, said that as finance minister he would delve deep into the inner workings of the economy. However, taking a step back, he said the Torah - the first five books of the Hebrew Bible - taught that obeying God brought prosperity.

He also suggested a shift in spending priorities for the incoming government, including a significantly increased budget for religious study.

Smotrich was tapped by prime minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu to serve as finance minister for two years. He will then be replaced by Aryeh Deri, who heads an ultra-Orthodox party.

Netanyahu on Thursday secured a parliamentary majority following a Nov. 1 election win, but has still to finalize the coalition agreements. Until he does, a caretaker government remains in office.

Smotrich is more known for his hardline politics than his economic views, which, according to his party's platform, are fiscally conservative.

He spoke about his approach in an interview with an ultra-Orthodox magazine, Mishpacha. Excerpts of the interview were broadcast by Israel's Channel 12.

"They tried many economic theories, right? They tried capitalism, they tried socialism. There is one thing they didn't try: 'if you obey'," Smotrich said, referring to Jewish scripture that calls on people to follow God's will.

Smotrich said those of faith, himself included, believed that "the more Israel promotes more Torah, more Judaism, more of the commandment to settle the land, more kindness and solidarity, then the Lord will grant us great abundance".

A spokesman for Smotrich confirmed the comments.

In a separate interview with religious news website Kikar Hashabat, Smotrich said he expected the new government would bring new priorities, adding that state financing of religious seminaries would "grow significantly".

Instead of doing mandatory military service, many ultra-Orthodox men are given exemptions in order to study at religious schools, a point of contention among Israelis.

At the same time, only about half of ultra-Orthodox men work, according to government data. Many prefer to dedicate their time to Torah study.

Israel's central bank has said this is a drain on the economy and has recommended incentives to draw more ultra-Orthodox men into the workforce.

Ex-Twitter employee sentenced over spying for Saudi Arabia

Ahmad Abouammo was sentenced Wednesday to three-and-a-half years in prison.

Sundry Photography via Getty Images

Will Shanklin
·Contributing Reporter
Thu, December 15, 2022 

In a rare case of Twitter drama unrelated to its owner, a former employee convicted of spying for Saudi Arabia received a three-and-a-half-year sentence on Wednesday. Ahmad Abouammo was found guilty in August of taking bribes from an aide to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. In return, he allegedly supplied sensitive account info that could help track and silence dissidents.

Abouammo, a US resident born in Egypt, received about half of the more than seven years prosecutors sought. The former Twitter media partnership manager said he was only doing his job, but evidence revealed that he received $300,000 and a $20,000 Hublot watch from bin Salman’s aide. A Twitter whistleblower suggested in late August that the scandal reflected a broader practice of lax data security at the company.

Two other men were charged in the scheme. Ali Alzabarah, a Saudi citizen, is another former Twitter employee who prosecutors say acquired personal info for over 6,000 accounts, including that of high-profile dissident (and Jamal Khashoggi ally) Omar Abdulaziz. A third man, Ahmed Almutairi, was also charged but didn't work at Twitter. Instead, he allegedly served as a contact between Twitter staffers and the Saudi government. Of the three, only Abouammo was in the US to face charge

Saudi Arabia signs Huawei deal, deepening China ties on Xi visit

December 8, 2022
By Aziz El Yaakoubi and Eduardo Baptista

RIYADH (Reuters) -Saudi Arabia and China showcased deepening ties with a series of strategic deals on Thursday during a visit by President Xi Jinping, including one with tech giant Huawei, whose growing foray into the Gulf region has raised U.S. security concerns.

King Salman signed a "comprehensive strategic partnership agreement" with Xi, who received a lavish welcome in a country forging new global partnerships beyond the West.

Xi's car was escorted to the king's palace by members of the Saudi Royal Guard riding Arabian horses and carrying Chinese and Saudi flags, and he later attended a welcome banquet.

The Chinese leader held talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, de facto ruler of the oil giant, who greeted him with a warm smile. Xi heralded "a new era" in Arab ties.

The display stood in stark contrast to the low-key welcome extended in July to U.S. President Joe Biden, with whom ties have been strained by Saudi energy policy and the 2018 murder of Jamal Khashoggi that had overshadowed the awkward visit.

The United States, warily watching China's growing sway and with its ties to Riyadh at a nadir, said on Wednesday Xi's trip was an example of Chinese attempts to exert influence around the world and would not change U.S. policy towards the Middle East.

A memorandum with China's Huawei Technologies, on cloud computing and building high-tech complexes in Saudi cities, was agreed despite U.S. unease with Gulf allies over a possible security risk in using the Chinese firm's technology. Huawei has participated in building 5G networks in most Gulf states despite the U.S. concerns.

Prince Mohammed, with whom Biden bumped fists instead of shaking hands in July, has made a comeback on the world stage following the Khashoggi killing and has been defiant in the face of U.S. ire over oil supplies and pressure from Washington to help isolate Russia.

In further burnishing of his international credentials, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said on Thursday that the prince and the UAE president jointly led mediation efforts that secured the release of U.S. basketball star Brittney Griner in a prisoner swap with Russia.

In an op-ed published in Saudi media, Xi said he was on a "pioneering trip" to "open a new era of China's relations with the Arab world, the Arab countries of the Gulf, and Saudi Arabia".

China and Arab countries would "continue to hold high the banner of non-interference in internal affairs", Xi added.

That sentiment was echoed by the crown prince, who said his country opposed any "interference in China's internal affairs in the name of human rights", Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said.

Xi, due to meet other Gulf oil producers and attend a wider gathering of Arab leaders on Friday, said China would work to make those summits "milestone events in the history of China-Arab relations", and that Beijing sees Riyadh as "an important force in the multipolar world".

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states like the United Arab Emirates have said that they would not choose sides between global powers and were diversifying partners to serve national economic and security interests.

"TRUSTED PARTNER"

China, the world's biggest energy consumer, is a major trade partner of Gulf states and bilateral ties have expanded as the region pushes economic diversification, raising U.S. hackles about Chinese involvement in sensitive Gulf infrastructure.

The Saudi energy minister on Wednesday said Riyadh would stay a "trusted and reliable" energy partner for Beijing and the two would boost cooperation in energy supply chains by setting up a regional centre in the kingdom for Chinese factories.

Chinese and Saudi firms also signed 34 deals for investment in green energy, information technology, cloud services, transport, construction and other sectors, state news agency SPA reported. It gave no figures, but had earlier said the two countries would seal initial agreements worth $30 billion.

Tang Tianbo, Middle East specialist at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) - a Chinese government-affiliated think tank - said the visit would result in further expansion of energy cooperation.

(Reporting by Aziz El Yaakoubi in Riyadh and Eduardo Baptista in Beijing; Writing by Tom Perry and Dominic Evans; Editing by Ghaida Ghantous and Nick Macfie, William Maclean)