Saturday, November 25, 2023

 

Fighting for Israel does not shield Druze from marginalisation, demolition orders

While Israel’s Druze minority serves in the military and fights and dies for the country, many of them say their communities are marginalised and deprived of public investment.
Thursday 23/11/2023
A woman walks past a mural depicting Lebanese Druze politician Walid Jumblatt (bottom, R) and Syrian Druze nationalist leader Sultan al-Atrash, in the predominantly Druze city of Beit Jann, Israel. AFP
A woman walks past a mural depicting Lebanese Druze politician Walid Jumblatt (bottom, R) and Syrian Druze nationalist leader Sultan al-Atrash, in the predominantly Druze city of Beit Jann, Israel. AFP

Beit Jann, Israel

In black robes, white moustaches and traditional hats, Druze religious elders stood before the coffin of Israeli soldier Adi Malik Harb, killed fighting Hamas militants in Gaza.

But while Israel’s Druze minority serve in the military and fight and die for the country, many of them say their communities are marginalised and deprived of public investment while families are fined crippling sums for building homes due to selective enforcement of planning rules.

Around 150,000 Druze, Arab adherents of an esoteric offshoot of Shia Islam, live in Israel. Most identify as Israelis and the men, not women, are conscripted into the military, many serving in combat units.

The Druze community is concentrated in 16 villages in northern Israel, among them Beit Jann, where Harb’s funeral took place on Sunday.

“Don’t Adi’s friends and acquaintances deserve to work and raise a home in Beit Jann without interference, without worrying about orders and fines?” the Druze religious leader Sheikh Mowafaq Tarif said at the funeral.

At least six Druze soldiers were among the 390 Israeli soldiers killed since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas on October 7.

That has renewed debate around the contentious Nation State law which in 2018 enshrined Israel’s primary status as a state for Jews, legislation that Druze and other Arab citizens, find denigrating.

·    Demolition orders

Activists say that after decades of underinvestment Druze villagers have to contend with poor electricity networks, sewage systems and roads.

Residents are rarely granted permits to build houses, and according to Salah Abu Rukun, one of the leaders of a months-long Druze protest against demolition orders, around two-third of Druze homes in Israel were built without proper permits in recent decades, leaving them under constant threat of demolition orders or huge fines.

The Druze are “left with very limited private lands that cannot provide for the continued existence of the Druze community with its character and its villages”, he said.

Increased enforcement since a 2017 law to deter unregulated construction in recent years had become “insufferable”, he added.

Nisreen Abu Asale, a lawyer from Beit Jann, said residents were left with no choice but to live in houses without permits.

“We don’t want to leave our community, culture or religion,” she said, adding that urban planning had not moved on for decades.

“We’re living on the needs from 20 or 30 years ago.”

In practice, houses are rarely demolished, but financial penalties are enforced rigorously.

Ashraf Halabi, a basketball trainer at Haifa’s Technion University is paying off around 600,000 shekels (more than $160,000) in fines for building his home and a swimming pool, where he has held swimming classes for local youth, on his land on the outskirts of Beit Jann.

“Who needs to demolish the building, they are destroying our wallets, destroying the bank account,” he told AFP.

“We have mobilisation orders and we have demolition orders. These are the two things we excel at, unfortunately,” he added.

·    “Racist and inconsiderate”

Selective enforcement of the planning laws is indicative of the increased marginalisation of non-Jewish minorities in Israel under right-wing governments in recent years, activists say.

In 2018, parliament passed the “Nation-State law” which declared that only Jews had a “right to national self determination in the State of Israel” and downgraded Arabic from an official language to one with a “special status”.

The Druze vociferously opposed the Nation-State Law. Beit Jann Mayor Radi Najam calls it a “racist, unequal and inconsiderate of anyone who isn’t Jewish”.

But the law has come under increasing scrutiny as Druze fight and die in the war.

Interior Minister Moshe Arbel last week appointed a Druze attorney to advise on the issue of planning and housing in Druze communities. On Monday, a Knesset committee green-lit 1,000 new housing units in the Druze village of Daliat al-Carmel.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Saturday that the Druze were “a precious community. They are fighting, they are falling in combat” and pledged to “give them everything they deserve”.

Majdi Hatib runs a restaurant and therapeutic horse farm outside Beit Jann, and says he served four months in prison for non-payment of building fines.

A former combat soldier, he provides an Iron Dome missile battery detachment near his land with food and showers.

“Whether it’s deliberate discrimination or not doesn’t matter to me,” he said. “Just as I fought for my country, and I love my country, I will fight for my rights.”

His house was built decades ago by his father, without a permit, and his adult son lives under the same roof.

“Whom will he wait for?” he asked. “For God? The Messiah? For them to come and solve our problems?”

 

Oil firms will face ‘moment of truth’ about climate crisis at COP28

In a report, the Paris-based energy watchdog said the industry’s engagement has been “minimal” so far, accounting for less than one percent of global clean energy investment.
Friday 24/11/2023

VIENNA

 

Oil and gas firms will face a crucial choice at UN climate talks next week between contributing to the climate crisis or embracing the clean energy transition, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.

The future of fossil fuels that play a massive role in climate change will be at the heart of COP28 negotiations in Dubai, as the world struggles to meet the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

“The oil and gas industry is facing a moment of truth at COP28 in Dubai,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said ahead of the November 30-December 12 conference.

“With the world suffering the impacts of a worsening climate crisis, continuing with business as usual is neither socially nor environmentally responsible,” he said.

In a report, the Paris-based energy watchdog said the industry’s engagement has been “minimal” so far, accounting for less than one percent of global clean energy investment.

It invested $20 billion in clean energy last year, or just 2.7 percent of its total capital spending.

To meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C target, the oil and gas sector must devote 50 percent of its investments on clean energy projects by 2030.

By comparison, $800 billion is invested in the oil and gas sector each year.

While investment in oil and gas supply is still needed, the figure is twice as high as what should be spent to respect the Paris goals, the agency said.

“Producers must choose between contributing to a deepening climate crisis or becoming part of the solution by embracing the shift to clean energy,” the IEA said.

  • Oil sector stalling

 

Oil and gas use would fall by 75 percent by 2050 if governments successfully pursued the 1.5C target and emissions from the energy sector reached net zero by then, the report said.

Instead of cutting fossil fuels outright, oil giants have touted several once-marginal technologies as promising solutions to cut emissions.

They include carbon capture and storage (CCS), direct air capture and carbon credit trading.

CCS prevents CO2 from entering the atmosphere by siphoning exhaust from power plants, while direct air capture pulls CO2 from thin air.

Both technologies have been demonstrated to work, but remain far from maturity and commercial scalability.

“The industry needs to commit to genuinely helping the world meet its energy needs and climate goals, which means letting go of the illusion that implausibly large amounts of carbon capture are the solution,” Birol said.

The think tank Carbon Tracker said in September that oil and gas sector emission reduction pledges have stalled and in some cases gone backwards.

Oil major BP watered down a previous 2030 production cut target and Shell said its “liquids” output would remain stable, both angering climate campaigners.

– Tripling renewables capacity –

Campaigners have raised concerns over the influence of fossil fuel interests at the UN climate conference, noting that COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber is both UAE climate envoy and head of state-owned oil firm ADNOC.

Jaber has proposed tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.

“The fossil fuel sector must make tough decisions now, and their choices will have consequences for decades to come,” Birol said.

“Clean energy progress will continue with or without oil and gas producers. However, the journey to net zero emissions will be more costly, and harder to navigate, if the sector is not on board.”

Get ready for austerity part two: 
Economists warn the UK should brace itself for public spending cuts on the scale of George Osborne's measures following Jeremy Hunt's Autumn Statement

Ministers would have to find £20 billion in 2028/29 to avoid cuts

By HARRIET LINE DEPUTY POLITICAL EDITOR
PUBLISHED 23 November 2023 

Britain should brace itself for public spending cuts on the scale of George Osborne's austerity measures, a group of economists warned yesterday.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies said Jeremy Hunt's Autumn Statement tax cuts will be paid for by 'planned real cuts in public service spending'.

Ministers would have to find £20billion in 2028/29 to avoid cuts to government departments such as justice and local government.

The Chancellor yesterday said he wanted to create a 'more productive state, not a bigger one' as he outlined his plan to grow the economy. But IFS economists claimed Mr Hunt had 'pencilled in numbers that suggest he wants to try to wrestle the size of the state back down towards where it was in 2019' before the pandemic.

They warned his plans were 'broadly comparable in scale' to Mr Osborne's controversial austerity programme when he was chancellor between 2010 and 2016.

Jeremy Hunt meets apprentices on the Airbus A350 wing manufacturing production line during a visit to the Airbus Broughton plant in Chester on November 23, 2023


IFS economists claimed Mr Hunt had 'pencilled in numbers that suggest he wants to try to wrestle the size of the state back down towards where it was in 2019' before the pandemic. They warned his plans were 'broadly comparable in scale' to Mr Osborne's controversial austerity programme when he was chancellor (File Photo)

Ben Zaranko, senior research economist at the IFS, said: 'During the early 2010s, non-health budgets were cut by just shy of 3 per cent per year in real terms.

'We've shown that on a set of what we think are credible assumptions, unprotected budgets could be facing cuts of around 3 per cent or so each year post-2025.'

Mr Zaranko said that Mr Hunt's proposals were 'broadly similar' but cautioned that there will be 'much less fat to trim to begin with'.

He added: 'We can expect some very real impacts – particularly as the pandemic has added some pressure to some of those budgets.'

Downing Street yesterday played down concerns that public spending plans for the next parliament will damage services.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's official spokesman said last night: 'Total departmental spending will be £85billion higher in real terms over the next five years compared to the start of this parliament.

'Departmental spending will continue to grow. You've also heard the Chancellor talk about the need to improve productivity and to reduce the size of the civil service.'

The spokesman also rejected suggestions that cuts to public spending would be similar in scale to the peak years of austerity. He said: 'I don't think when departmental spending is significantly increasing that is a claim that adds up.'



Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt presenting his Autumn Budget Statement at the House of Commons, in London, on November 22, 2023

The spokesman went on to say that significant sums are being invested into 'priority areas' such as the NHS.

The IFS was more positive about the Chancellor's two major tax cuts announced in his Autumn Statement – reducing employee national insurance contributions by 2p and making full expensing in corporation tax permanent.

However Paul Johnson, the institute's director, said: 'Yet the projected tax burden is still set to reach 37.7 per cent of GDP by the end of the forecast period – its highest ever level in the UK.

'Effectively those cuts offset the additional revenue generated by that additional inflation.'

He also said the economy would be 'no bigger' in a few years' time than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was forecasting in March but with 'higher debt interest spending, and with new tax cuts, and with debt falling by a similarly tiny margin to that previously forecast'.

The Resolution Foundation yesterday said this Parliament is 'on track to be the first in which real household disposable incomes have fallen'. It said disposable incomes will have dropped by 3.1 per cent from December 2019 to January 2025, meaning households will be £1,900 poorer on average at the end of this Parliament than at its start.

Meanwhile, the OBR said ministers are on course to miss by £8.6 billion the welfare cap, which sets a limit on the amount the Government can spend on certain social security benefits. However, the OBR has to make only a 'formal assessment' of performance against the cap in the first budget of a Parliament.
Europe's Ariane 6 rocket rated 'ready to rumble' after passing hot fire test

Still not reusable, but at least it's getting closer to long-delayed launch


Simon Sharwood
Fri 24 Nov 2023

The Ariane 6 launcher has successfully conducted a hot fire test –, an important achievement for the Arianespace and the European Space Agency (ESA).

"ESA's new Ariane 6 rocket passed a major full-scale rehearsal today [November 23] in preparation for its first flight, when teams on the ground went through a complete launch countdown followed by a seven-minute full firing of the core stage's engine, as it would fire on a launch into space," states an ESA announcement posted in the wee small hours on Friday the 24 and thrillingly titled "Hot fire: Ariane 6 ready to rumble."

The test, the longest "full stack" run for Ariane 6's lower liquid propulsion module with a Vulcain 2.1 engine, was conducted on the launch pad at Europe's Spaceport in French Guiana.

"The teams from ArianeGroup, CNES and ESA have now run through every step of the rocket's flight without it leaving Earth," explained ESA director general Josef Aschbacher, who declared success means "We are back on track towards resecuring Europe's autonomous access to space."

That outcome is not yet certain, as the ESA has planned another hot-fire test of the rocket's upper stage for December 2023.

But the success of this test is good news. The ESA flew the last Ariane 5 in July 2023, leaving it with only the Vega launcher family and its modest payload capacity of 2,300kg. Ariane 5 could carry 20,000kg to low Earth orbit (LEO) – capacity that made it competitive with SpaceX's Falcon 9. The 64 variant of Ariane 6 is specced to haul 21.6 tonnes to LEO, 12T into geostationary orbit, 8.5T into a lunar transfer orbit, or 7.6T for an "Earth escape mission."

Elon Musk's space concern is one reason Ariane 6 was developed – the new rocket lowers costs to compete better with SpaceX's re-usable launchers.

Among the tweaks used to cut costs for Ariane 6 is the Vulcain 2.1 – a modification of the Vulcain 2 engine used on the Ariane 5. Vulcain 2.1 boasts what the ESA describes as "a simplified and cheaper design, and new technology in the engine nozzle and ignition system has been moved from the engine to the launchpad structure, to make the stage perform better and cost less."

But the Euro-rocket was slow to launch, blowing its development budget and slipping well behind its projected 2020 target for a maiden flight.

It's now hoped Ariane 6 will fly in 2024.

Which will be a relief for Arianespace, given it's in the launch business. And also good news for ESA member nations, as they realize that sovereign launch capability is necessary for national security. Astroboffins will also be smiling at the prospect of future ESA science missions riding the rocket, instead of having to fly with SpaceX. ®

Friday, November 24, 2023

 UK

Boots offloads £4.8bn pension pot paving way for sale revival

  • High Street chemist was put up for sale with a £7billion price tag last year
  • But US owner Walgreens Boots Alliance backtracked a few months later
  • Experts say pension scheme deal could make it easier for Walgreens to sell 

Boots has sold its pension scheme to Legal & General for £4.8billion, clearing the way for a potential sale of the 174-year-old pharmacy chain.

The High Street chemist was put up for sale with a £7billion price tag last year but US owner Walgreens Boots Alliance backtracked a few months later.

It said an 'unexpected and dramatic change' in market conditions had caused it to scrap the sales process

Experts said yesterday that the pension scheme deal, which was one of the largest of its kind, could make it easier for Walgreens to sell.

Private equity giants Apollo, TDR Capital and Sycamore made pitches for Boots when it was on the market early last year.

Iron grip: Italian billionaire Stefano Pessina, Walgreens shareholder, and his partner Ornella Barra

Iron grip: Italian billionaire Stefano Pessina, Walgreens shareholder, and his partner Ornella Barra

Walgreens later said no third party was able to make an adequate offer due to the turmoil in global financial markets.

Former Boots corporate finance boss John Ralfe said selling the retirement pot had removed a 'stumbling block' to a sale. But he warned that 'it doesn't make the underlying fundamentals more attractive'.

Russ Mould, investment director at broker AJ Bell, said Walgreens could 'revive' a sale as 'you could argue that the picture is a bit different now'. He said inflation is cooling, interest rates may be peaking, and the stock and bond markets 'are rallying amid wider optimism'.

'From the point of view of any buyer, the fewer liabilities that come with an asset, the more attractive it might be. When a firm buys another company, it inherits not just its assets but its liabilities as well, including debt, leases and any pension deficit.'

Legal & General will take over responsibility for Boots' defined benefit scheme following the deal. It insures all 53,000 members in the Boots pension scheme, making it the largest single transaction of its kind.

Boots will bring forward around £170m of payments it had already agreed to funnel into the scheme and will hand over an extra £500m. The company said it explored 'a range' of options and this is 'the best way to safeguard members' benefit against market uncertainty, improved life expectancies and other risks'. A previous agreement by Walgreens to guarantee the scheme has been scrapped and replaced with a smaller, temporary guarantee.

Baker, chairman of trustees for the scheme, said: 'This agreement with Legal & General gives added protection to our members' long-term benefits by removing market uncertainty and other financial exposures. 'We welcome the additional payment from Boots in addition to the sum it has already committed. As a result, the scheme will not be reliant on Boots to pay benefits for members and pensions will be protected for decades to come.'

Boots managing director Sebastian James said: 'This will provide greater certainty to both the scheme members and to Boots.'

Walgreens, which bought Boots in 2014, is under pressure to sell the chemist to focus on its US business. Italian billionaire Stefano Pessina is the largest single shareholder in Walgreens Boots Alliance, which is one of the world's biggest pharmacy chains.

It is listed on the US stock market but Pessina and his partner Ornella Barra retain an iron grip on the company. The 82-year-old was chief executive of the US retail chain for five years before stepping into the role of executive chairman in 2020.

Pessina built his pharmacy empire in the 1970s and 1980s to create Alliance Sante. He merged it with Britain's Unichem in 1997 before buying Boots in 2006.

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M
UK
REPORT: Entain shares in reverse after £585m bribery fine


By JOHN ABIONA
 24 November 2023

Shares in Entain dipped after it agreed to pay £585m following a bribery probe into its former Turkish business.

In August, the Ladbrokes and Coral owner told shareholders it had set aside the sum following a Bribery Act investigation by HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) that began four years ago.

Authorities investigated the Turkish business that had been sold in 2017 by Entain's previous management, GVC, alongside the activities of former suppliers and employees.

The blue-chip firm was fined for failing to have robust measures in place to prevent bribery.

Entain said it agreed a deal with the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) to pay the figure over four years. It will also hand £20m to charity and pay £10m to cover the costs of HMRC and the CPS.


Probe: Entain was fined for failing to have robust measures in place to prevent bribery

Entain chairman Barry Gibson said: 'This legacy matter concerns a business which was sold by a former management team six years ago. The Group has changed immeasurably since these events took place.' Shares sank 0.6 per cent, or 5.4p, to 859p.

Gambling stocks were dealt a further blow after HSBC sounded the alarm over a weak set of third-quarter results.

The broker said Entain is struggling to get a grip on a cocktail of woes from an underperforming UK business to tighter regulation and higher tax.

HSBC reduced the target price to 1280p from 1520p but kept its 'buy' rating on the stock as it believes there remains value but warned a turnaround of the business will take time.

Amsterdam Protest: A Stand Against Discrimination in the Wake of Far-Right Victory

By: Justice Nwafor
Published: Nov 24, 2023 


In Amsterdam, a city known for its liberal values and multiculturalism, over a thousand voices came together in a resonant protest against discrimination. This demonstration, fuelled by the recent electoral triumph of a far-right party, was a public outcry against the rising tide of discriminatory and anti-immigrant sentiments that have come to be associated with the far-right in the Netherlands. The event, named ‘Together for Solidarity’, saw a diverse collective of organizations and individuals rallying to express their opposition to the political shift and its potential implications.

A Unified Front Against Discrimination

Organizers of the ‘Together for Solidarity’ protest included prominent international entities like Amnesty International and Greenpeace, alongside local groups supporting gay rights, the arts, peace, and refugees. Anti-racism activists and left-leaning political parties also joined the protest, constructing a unified front against the far-right’s platform. In addition, Muslim groups have announced a demonstration slated for December 2nd, to further express their opposition against the rising ‘populism and sowing of hate’.

Political Shift and Its Implications

The electoral success of Geert Wilders’ PVV Freedom Party, which won a staggering 37 seats in parliament, has stunned the Dutch establishment. Despite a toned-down rhetoric during the election campaign, the party’s manifesto, which advocates for a ban on mosques and the Koran, has ignited concerns about the potential social climate in the country. Hundreds of people gathered in Amsterdam and Utrecht to protest against fascism, Islamophobia, racism, and anti-queer hatred in the aftermath of the election results.

Human Rights at Stake

The Dutch branch of Amnesty International, in a statement released on Thursday, noted that ‘human rights lost’ as the PVV took the lead in the general elections held on November 22. Highlighting the party’s anti-immigrant stance, the statement emphasized how the election manifesto of Wilders’ party undermined the rule of law and the constitution. The far-right’s victory has taken pollsters and politicians across Europe by surprise, and the Dutch people’s reaction to this shift is a testament to the ongoing debates about immigration, national identity, and social cohesion within Dutch society.

 Israeli Air Force McDonnell Douglas F-15I Ra'am. Photo by Tech. Sgt. Kevin Gruenwald, USAF.

General Giulio Douhet: Theory Of Air Power – Analysis

By 

Introduction

General Giulio Douhet’s advocacy for targeting civilians with a combination of high explosives, incendiary bombs, and chemical weapons calls into doubt his role as a prominent proponent of air power. To fully comprehend his beliefs and the context in which he worked, however, one must first consider the broader historical themes of nationalism and industrialization that dominated the nineteenth century, as well as the early twentieth century development of aviation technology.

World War I significantly influenced Douhet’s thinking, as he saw aviation as a solution to trench warfare and the challenges of industrialized warfare. We have evaluated his book’s second edition, “The Command of the Air,” released in 1927, to be the most developed expression of his views. In the U.S., proponents of air power resonated with Douhet’s ideas, impacting aircraft design and shaping the strategic bombing campaign during World War II.

Giulio Douhet, despite having limited experience in flying, is a standout figure in the realm of military theory for his insightful predictions about the transformative impact of airpower on modern warfare. He foresaw that the development of airplanes would make gaining “command of the air” the primary objective in any military campaign, with air superiority being the ultimate determinant of victory. 

However, what makes Douhet’s contributions particularly noteworthy is his understanding that the advent of airpower would fundamentally change the nature of war. Douhet saw that airplanes eliminated the geographical boundaries in warfare, making surface targets easily accessible for attack. Moreover, Douhet anticipated that the distinction between soldiers and civilians would blur as a result of airpower. This foresight led him to predict the beginning of total war, where the civilian population otself became a viable target.

Douhet believed that targeting civilian population through bombing could exert pressure on citizens to compel their leaders to end the war, and achieve peace. Initially met with resistance, Douhet faced a court-martial and a year of imprisonment for going against his superiors. However, he was later exonerated and went on to publish his masterpiece, “The Command of the Air,” in 1921. He released a second edition in 1927, which was even more forceful in its conclusions. Douhet’s work was eventually translated into multiple languages and became a major influence on the doctrine of Europe’s air forces, contributing to growing public concern about the prospect of aerial bombing as the specter of a new world war loomed.

Background

The desire to use aerial craft for warfare existed long before the development of powered flight. The Montgolfier brothers’ demonstration of balloon free flight in the late eighteenth century ignited speculation about its military potential. In 1794, the French government established an army balloon unit for reconnaissance purposes, the balloons first went into action during the battles of Charleroi and Fleurus later that year. Throughout the nineteenth century, various military establishments experimented with lighter-than-air ships, even attempting bombing cities. When the Wright brothers achieved powered flight in 1903, the anticipation of military aviation was already widespread. Within a decade, powered flight played a crucial role in military operations during the conflict between Italy and Turkey. The ability of airplanes and dirigibles to overcome physical barriers and provide tactical advantages stirred public imagination and controversy, prompting military leaders to consider their role in future conflicts.

Giulio Douhet, an Italian soldier and writer born in Caserta in 1869, was a prominent figure in the realm of airpower thinking during his time and beyond. His exploration of aircraft’s impact began in 1909 while serving in the Italian Army’s Artillery unit. Douhet later commanded one of the first army air units and directed the army’s Aviation Section. By 1915, as Italy entered World War I, Douhet had already developed key elements of his airpower theories.

 However, his proposal for an independent bomber force of 500 aircraft to attack Austrian cities was rejected, and he was court-martialed and imprisoned for a year after criticizing Italian military leaders in memoranda to the cabinet. In 1918, Douhet was recalled to service to head the Italian Central Aeronautical Bureau, and he was finally exonerated in 1920. He was promoted to the rank of general officer in 1921, and the same year he published “Command of the Air.” After briefly serving as the head of aviation in Mussolini’s government in 1922, Giulio Douhet dedicated much of the remainder of his life to writing and advocating for his ideas on airpower.

Giulio Douhet grew up during an era of unification, witnessing the efforts of leaders like Wilhelm Couser in German Unification and Garibaldi, a revolutionary hero who played a crucial role in the unification of Italy. Born in 1869, just a few years before Italy was unified, Douhet came of age during a time of Italian nationalism. This period fueled his determination to understand how Italy could establish itself as a leading European power. Recognizing Italy’s challenges—lack of natural resources compared to Germany, an industrial base inferior to Britain, and a manpower deficit compared to Russia—Douhet aimed to elevate Italy to a prominent position. To address these imbalances, he turned to technology, viewing it as a means to overcome these obstacles and ensure that Italy wouldn’t be relegated to a second-rate nation.

Major Assumptions

Giulio Douhet’s military theories were built upon several major assumptions that formed the core of his ideas on airpower and warfare. Central to his beliefs was the conviction that airpower stood as the preeminent factor in determining the outcomes of conflicts. Douhet introduced the concept of strategic bombing, intricately tied to the notion of total war, wherein the targeting of civilian populations and logistical centers behind enemy lines became a transformative element. Douhet’s conviction in the offensive capabilities of aircraft was resolute; he argued that no other domain of warfare could match the offensive prowess of airborne attacks. He asserted that there was no effective defense against air assaults, providing airpower with a distinct strategic advantage. Douhet further contended that strategic bombing held the power to break civilian morale and dismantle the enemy’s logistical capacity, thereby reshaping the dynamics of warfare. Envisaging a defensive posture for ground troops due to military mechanization, Douhet underscored the dominance of bombers over other aircraft types. These assumptions, articulated in his seminal work “The Command of The Air,” underscored Douhet’s belief in the transformative and superior nature of airpower, positioning airplanes as unparalleled offensive weapons capable of redefining the very essence of warfare.

Explanation

In “The Command of The Air,” Douhet emphasizes the paramount significance of air power in modern warfare. According to Douhet, a nation’s ability to secure itself hinges on its ability to control the air, which he defined as being able to prevent the enemy from flying while retaining the ability to fly oneself. Douhet and his contemporaries used this concept to argue for the creation of an independent air force. Douhet believed that the command of the air was necessary for conducting and protecting a nation from aerial attacks, and that without it, national security could not be ensured. He believed that airpower held the key to victory, and that a nation’s offensive should be carried out through the air rather than through ground forces. Douhet’s ideas about the importance of the air domain have been debated by airpower theorists, who question whether airpower alone can achieve victory over other domains of warfare.

In his book “The Command of The Air,” Douhet initially proposed a balanced allocation of “aerial means used by the army and navy.” However, he later changed hisassumption, believing that auxiliary aviation was “worthless, superfluous and harmful.” This idea created inter-service rivalry between armies, navies, and independent air forces worldwide. Douhet’s assumptions about total war and strategic bombing are heavily debated. He stated that the choice of bombing targets would depend on material, moral, and psychological circumstances, making it impossible to lay down hard and fast rules. However, many theorists believe that Douhet believed in targeting a nation’s industrial capacity and the enemy’s air force as the primary targets of bombing missions, followed by strategic targets such as railroads, ports, and population centers. Douhet summarized his concept of total war as inflicting heavier damage upon the enemy while being resigned to the damage they may inflict upon us.

Furthermore, Douhet argued that ground forces should be assigned defensive responsibilities due to the destructive stalemate of the First World War. He observed that advancements in firearms and defense systems favored the defensive, making victory in ground warfare difficult. However, Douhet acknowledged the importance of offensive action in achieving victory and criticized the failure of combatants in the First World War to strike a decisive blow. He believed that airplanes were the key offensive weapon and that they were not utilized effectively in the First World War. Douhet’s goal was to change war strategies to avoid a repeat of the disastrous outcome of the First World War.

Douhet’s final assumption in “The Command of The Air” is that bombers are superior to fighter aircraft. He believed that strategic bombardment was the most effective way to attack the enemy, and he did not value the interdiction efforts of defending fighter aircraft. According to Douhet, the “battle plane,” which can deliver a large payload of destructive bombs and gas munitions, was the only type of plane necessary for an Independent Air Force to conduct aerial warfare. Douhet also believed that nothing on the ground could interfere with a plane in flight. His battle plane concept was controversial and led to his court-martial, but it was still influential. The fear that “the bomber will always get through” became a reality before World War II, as acknowledged by British Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin in 1932.

Thus, he held the belief that the primary objective of air forces was to gain control of the air, which meant rendering the enemy unable to fly while maintaining the ability to do so oneself. To accomplish this, Douhet advocated for attacking the enemy air force while it was on the ground. In his view, aircraft were only useful as offensive instruments, and defeating the enemy could be achieved by bombing cities and factories, thereby shattering the civilian will to resist. Douhet argued that the nature of airplanes – their speed and maneuverability – and the vastness of airspace would make it impossible for the defense to stop a determined bombing campaign. However, for air forces to be able to conduct such operations, and because they had little use as auxiliaries to armies or navies, they needed to be independent of ground and naval forces. Douhet’s conclusion was that there should be no air defense, and that the only effective way to defend one’s own territory against an air offensive was to quickly destroy the enemy’s air power, even at the risk of suffering similar losses.

Concept of Strategic Bombing and WWII

During World War II, Nazi Germany conducted an intense bombing comaping against the United Kingdom known as the Blitz. This compaign lasted for a period of eight month during which Luftwaffe dropped bombs on London and other strategic cities across Britain. Despite heavy civilian casualties resulting  from the Blitz, the British people refrained from retaliating or urging their government to pursue peace negotiations with Germany. This can be explained by a range of factors, including resilience of British morale and the effectiveness of the government’s propaganda campaign. Moreover, it is plausible that the German bombings may have actually strengthened the British resolve and willingness to fight, rather than undermining it. So, given the historical context of the Blitz, it is pertinent to examine the applicability of Giulio Douhet’s assumption of strategic bombing, which posits that the bombing of enemy cities and industrial centers would result in a swift victory

Criticism

Giulio Douhet’s “air power theory” argued that airpower alone could win wars. However, his theory has been criticized on several fronts. Firstly, his theory overemphasized on strategic bombing. Douhet believed that bombing enemy cities and industrial centers would lead to a quick victory. However, this strategy proved less effective than expected, as civilian populations proved resilient and could continue to support their war effort even after suffering significant damage. Moreover, the use of strategic bombing in World War II, particularly the bombing of civilian populations in Germany and Japan, resulted in significant ethical and moral concerns. Secondly, Douhet’s theory underestimated the importance of ground forces. He saw airpower as the decisive factor in warfare, while underestimating the importance of ground forces. In practice, successful military campaigns have required a combination of air, ground, and naval forces. Thirdly, Douhet wrote during a time when the technology of aviation was in its infancy, and some of his assumptions, such as the ability of bombers to penetrate enemy air defenses, proved overly optimistic. In reality, air defenses have evolved to become increasingly sophisticated and effective. Lastly, Douhet’s theory failed to consider political and economic factors that often determine the outcome of a conflict. He focused primarily on the military aspects of war, while neglecting the political and economic factors. For example, a country’s ability to sustain a war effort over time can depend on factors such as access to resources and political stability. In conclusion, while Giulio Douhet’s “air power theory” had some valuable insights, it also had significant limitations. The theory’s overemphasis on strategic bombing, underestimation of the importance of ground forces, technological limitations, and failure to consider political and economic factors have been criticized. Nevertheless, Douhet’s theory remains an important contribution to military thinking and continues to influence strategic thinking in the modern era.

Case Studies

Now, we will analyze the accuracy of Giulio Dauhet’s predictions in light of the experiences of modern conflict, and identify the areas where his predictions were validated and where they were refuted.

The Six-Day War

The Six-Day War, which took place in June 1967, was a conflict between Israel and the Arab states of Egypt, Syria, and Jordan. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched a preemptive strike on Egypt, citing expected aggression. In a single day, the Israeli air force decimated nearly the entire Egyptian air force, thereby securing air supremacy. Israel went on to use its air power to devastating effect against Egyptian and Syrian land forces, using tactical air strikes and combined arms air-land warfare. The Six-Day War serves as a prime example of the decisive role that air power can play in modern warfare. The Israeli pre-emptive strike on Egypt’s air force was a critical component of the IDF’s strategy. By achieving air supremacy, Israel was able to control the skies and launch devastating attacks on enemy forces on the ground. The use of air power also allowed the IDF to conduct rapid troop movements and exploit gaps in the enemy’s defense. The Six-Day War was a wake-up call for the Arab states involved in the conflict, prompting them to reform and restructure their military forces. The success of the Israeli air force highlighted the importance of modernizing military structures and investing in advanced weaponry, particularly air power.

Vietnam War:

During the Vietnam War, the United States (US) military possessed a significant advantage in air power, as evidenced by their command of the air over the region. The US Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps collectively controlled the skies and had the capability to deliver precise, laser-guided bombs with a high success rate. In fact, out of the 21,000 laser-guided bombs dropped during the conflict, approximately 17,000 hit their intended targets, resulting in an impressive 80-percent success rate for this innovative weapon. Furthermore, the US military had a substantial volume of aerial firepower present in Vietnam, with virtually every spot in South Vietnam accessible within a short fifteen-minute flight by aircraft. Multiple jet bases were also available for deployment and provided the US military with a strategic advantage in the region. Despite their clear military superiority, the US did not ultimately achieve victory in the Vietnam War.  The failure to win the war can be attributed, in part, to the erosion of public support for the conflict in the US. As the war dragged on and the death toll rose, the American public grew increasingly disillusioned with the conflict, leading to protests and calls for the withdrawal of US troops. The loss of public support eventually forced the US to withdraw from the region, contributing to the ultimate failure to achieve victory in the Vietnam War.

Conclusion

After conducting research on the modern conflict, it has been determined that Giulio Douhet’s principles and objectives for strategic bombing were utilized during World War II, thus proving his theory to be valid. However, his belief in the overwhelming psychological impact on targeted populations was overestimated, and he did not anticipate the diverse range of uses for airpower in contemporary warfare. Douhet correctly predicted the evolving nature of warfare and the importance of airpower in achieving victory. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of airpower is dependent on the prevailing conditions and circumstances, and dominance in the skies does not always equate to success. As mentioned above, while the US military had a clear advantage in air power during the Vietnam War, this was not enough to secure a victory. The erosion of public support for the conflict ultimately proved to be a significant factor in the failure to achieve victory in the region.

File photo of Israeli Air Force McDonnell Douglas F-15I Ra'am. Photo by Tech. Sgt. Kevin Gruenwald, USAF.



Hafiza Syeda Azkia Batool is a student of International Relations at National Defense University (NDU).
Robert Reich: What’s The Real Frankenstein Monster Of AI? – OpEd

November 25, 2023 
By Robert Reich

The chaotic news this week about OpenAI offers a foothold onto this larger question.

Artificial Intelligence has huge potential social benefits, such as devising new life-saving drugs or finding new ways to teach children.

But it also has even larger potential social costs. If we’re not careful, AI could be a Frankenstein monster: It might eliminate nearly all jobs. It could lead to autonomous warfare.


Even such a mundane goal as making as many paper clips as possible could push an all-powerful AI to end all life on Earth in pursuit of more clips.

So, how would you build an enterprise designed to gain as many of the benefits of AI as possible while avoiding these Frankenstein monster horrors?

You might start with a nonprofit board stacked with ethicists and specialists in the potential downsides of AI.

That nonprofit would need vast amounts of expensive computing power to test its models, so the nonprofit board would need to oversee a for-profit commercial arm that attracted investors.

How to prevent investors from taking over the enterprise?

You’d have to limit how much profit could flow to the investors (through a so-called “capped profit” structure) and you wouldn’t put investors on the board.

But how would you prevent greed from corrupting the enterprise, as board members and employees are lured by the prospect of making billions?

Well, you can’t. Which is the flaw in the whole idea of private enterprise developing AI.

The nonprofit I described was the governing structure that Open AI began with in 2015, when it was formed as a research-oriented nonprofit to build safe AI technology.

But ever since OpenAI’s ChatGPT looked to be on its way to achieving the holy grail of tech — an at-scale consumer platform that would generate billions of dollars in profits — its nonprofit safety mission has been endangered by big money.

Now, big money is on the way to devouring safety.

In 2019, OpenAI shifted to a capped profit structure so it could attract investors to pay for computing power and AI talent.

OpenAI’s biggest outside investor is Microsoft, which obviously wants to make as much as possible for its executives and shareholders regardless of safety. Since 2019, Microsoft has invested $13 billion in OpenAI, with the expectation of making a huge return on that investment.

But OpenAI’s capped profit structure and nonprofit board limited how much Microsoft could make. What to do?

Sam Altman, OpenAI’s CEO, apparently tried to have it both ways — giving Microsoft some of what it wanted without abandoning the humanitarian goals and safeguards of the nonprofit.

It didn’t work. Last week, OpenAI’s nonprofit board pushed Altman out, presumably over fears that he was bending too far toward Microsoft’s goal of making money, while giving inadequate attention to the threats posed by AI.

Where did Altman go after being fired? To Microsoft, of course.

And what of OpenAI’s more than 700 employees — its precious talent pool?

Even if we assume they’re concerned about safety, they own stock in the company and will make a boatload of money if OpenAI prioritizes growth over safety. It’s estimated that OpenAI could be worth between $80 billion to $90 billion in a tender offer — making it one of the world’s most valuable tech start-ups of all time.

So it came as no surprise that almost all of OpenAIs employees signed a letter earlier this week, telling the board they would follow Altman to Microsoft if the board didn’t reinstate Altman as CEO.

Everyone involved — including Altman, OpenAI’s employees, and even Microsoft — will make much more money if OpenAI survives and they can sell their shares in the tender offer.

Presto! On Tuesday, OpenAI’s board reinstated Altman as chief executive and agreed to overhaul itself — jettisoning board members who had opposed him and adding two who seem happy to do Microsoft’s bidding (Bret Taylor, an early Facebook officer and former co-chief executive of Salesforce, and Larry Summers, the former Treasury secretary).

Said Satya Nadella, Microsoft’s chief executive, “we are encouraged by the changes to OpenAI board,” calling it a “first essential step on a path to more stable, well-informed, and effective governance.”

Effective governance? For making gobs of money.

The business press — for which “success” is automatically defined as making as much money as possible — is delighted.

It had repeatedly described the nonprofit board as a “convoluted” governance structure that prevented Altman from moving “even faster,” and predicted that if OpenAI fell apart over the contest between growth and safety, “people will blame the board for … destroying billions of dollars in shareholder value.”

Which all goes to show that the real Frankenstein monster of AI is human greed.

Private enterprise, motivated by the lure of ever-greater profits, cannot be relied on to police itself against the horrors of an unfettered AI.

This past week’s frantic battle over OpenAI shows that not even a nonprofit board with a capped profit structure for investors can match the power of Big Tech and Wall Street.

Money triumphs in the end.

The question for the future is whether the government — also susceptible to the corruption of big money — can do a better job weighing the potential benefits of AI against its potential horrors, and regulate the monster.

As we approach our ten-week Friday discussion of the common good and capitalism, it’s an important question to ponder.

This article was published at Robert Reich’s Substack


Robert B. Reich is Chancellor's Professor of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley and Senior Fellow at the Blum Center for Developing Economies, and writes at robertreich.substack.com. Reich served as Secretary of Labor in the Clinton administration, for which Time Magazine named him one of the ten most effective cabinet secretaries of the twentieth century. He has written fifteen books, including the best sellers "Aftershock", "The Work of Nations," and"Beyond Outrage," and, his most recent, "The Common Good," which is available in bookstores now. He is also a founding editor of the American Prospect magazine, chairman of Common Cause, a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and co-creator of the award-winning documentary, "Inequality For All." He's co-creator of the Netflix original documentary "Saving Capitalism," which is streaming now.