Is Saudi Arabia trying to sabotage Biden?

BY LIZ PEEK, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR - 04/04/24 -THE HILL

Is Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman trying to sabotage Joe Biden’s reelection bid? It’s quite possible. The Saudi leader, known as MBS, has made clear his disdain for President Biden, and his fury over insults lobbed at him by this White House. He is a powerful force behind the current surge in oil prices, which could — if sustained — contribute to Biden’s defeat.

Oil prices are soaring — up 19 percent since the start of the year. Since they lag behind crude oil, gasoline prices have only jumped 14 percent so far. But, unless oil markets take a giant step backwards, prices at the pump will steadily increase into the summer driving season and pummel Biden’s popularity.

This happened two years ago. As gasoline prices rose to an all-time high of $5 per gallon in June 2022, Biden’s approval ratings tanked. He started the year at 43.2 percent approval and by the July 4 holiday, when millions of Americans take to the roads, he had slipped to 38.1 percent.

Why are oil prices rising? There are a number of factors, including Russia’s war against Ukraine, turbulence and fear of escalation in the Middle East and also some revival in China’s growth and demand for energy. But it is the ongoing production cuts agreed to by OPEC+, engineered in large part by Saudi Arabia, that are really lifting prices.

In recent days, OPEC+ held a ministerial meeting at which members recommitted to continuing voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day until June. The decision had been expected, but nonetheless signaled that Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s leading oil exporters, are determined to keep prices high. MBS is the key decision-maker for Saudi Arabia; by virtue of the kingdom’s unique position as “swing producer,” he is also the dominant voice within OPEC+.

For Russia, high oil prices are critical to winning its battle with Ukraine. Biden, after Putin invaded its neighbor, boasted that the U.S. and its allies were imposing draconian penalties to hold Moscow accountable. Biden said, “The totality of our sanctions and export controls is crushing the Russian economy.” He cited the sharp decline of the ruble and predicted the Moscow stock exchange would “probably collapse.”

Since that day, one month into the conflict, the ruble has rebounded 47 percent and the main Russian stock index is up 37 percent, only 25 percent below its all-time high. How has Russia managed? By teaming with the Saudis to curtail production and boost oil prices.

For the Russians, high oil prices are a matter of survival. For the Saudis, skyrocketing oil costs are essential to fulfilling the grandiose economic vision of MBS. They are also key to exacting revenge against Biden, who early on went out of his way to insult the young heir apparent. The White House indicated it intended to “recalibrate” its relationship with the Saudis, and especially with MBS, who had worked successfully with the Trump White House.

Having vowed on the campaign trail in 2019 to make Saudi Arabia “the pariah that they are,” Biden initially shunned the crown prince, agreeing to speak only to his ailing father King Salman. In addition, the White House released a report accusing MBS of responsibility for the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and terminated sales of offensive weapons needed by Saudi Arabia to conduct its war in Yemen. Moreover, Biden rescinded Trump’s terror designation for the Houthis, despite the group having attacked Saudi oil infrastructure.

Worse, the Biden team attempted to revive the nuclear deal with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s bitter enemy.

Early in Biden’s presidency, the Saudis surprised oil traders by leading OPEC to not increase oil output, despite rising demand; prices jumped 4 percent. It was MBS’s first salvo, reminding Biden of the importance of the U.S.-Saudi alliance, which has been in place since 1945, and of his own ascendance.

When oil prices soared in 2022, Biden went to MBS for help, begging him to increase output. But he would not shake hands with the crown prince, offering instead a widely-mocked “fist bump.” That’s how idiotically Biden has managed this critical relationship.

In coming months we will find out just how critical the relationship is. If oil prices continue to march higher, Biden will no doubt pull out all the diplomatic stops to get OPEC+ to open the spigots. Last time, he dampened rising prices by draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve; that emergency storage is down to 362,000 barrels, the lowest level since 1983. Biden cannot go there again.

Other factors will certainly influence Biden’s standing in coming months, but oil prices could prove key as they drive inflation higher. In a recent poll, 22 percent of voters ranked inflation as their top issue; rising prices at the pump will keep the problem top of mind even if the overall inflation level continues to moderate. The same survey showed only 38 percent of voters describing the economy under Biden as good, compared to 65 percent saying it was good under Trump.

Rising oil prices will likely complicate Fed Chair Jay Powell’s expected pivot to cutting rates, which Wall Street expects. The Fed has engineered one of the most aggressive rate-hiking cycles ever, and is poised to reverse course once inflation recedes to its stated 2 percent goal. Stocks have rallied strongly in anticipation of that easing; rising oil prices could prove a speedbump.

Energy prices are volatile, so they are excluded from the data that the Fed studies for signs that inflation is under control. But if oil prices remain high for several months, they will bleed into the cost of shipping, airline tickets, plastics and innumerable other items. Powell clearly intends to follow through with his projected cuts, but has also said the Fed will be “data dependent.” Oil prices will be a critical part of the data.

And MBS could make sure those prices, and interest rates, stay “higher for longer.” That will not help Joe Biden.

Liz Peek is a former partner of major bracket Wall Street firm Wertheim & Company. 

Haiti gangs loot national library, putting historic documents at risk

Haiti's National Library was looted Wednesday by armed gangs terrorising the Caribbean nation's capital Port-au-Prince, its director told AFP, as UNESCO condemned multiple "devastating" attacks on educational and artistic institutions in the city.


Issued on: 04/04/2024 

A man looks at vehicles that were burned near his garage in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on March 25, 2024. © Clarens Siffroy, AFP

Haiti's National Library was looted Wednesday by armed gangs terrorising the Caribbean nation's capital Port-au-Prince, its director told AFP, as UNESCO condemned multiple "devastating" attacks on educational and artistic institutions in the city.

Library director Dangelo Neard said the history of Haiti -- the Western Hemisphere's second-oldest republic -- was being threatened.

"Our documentary collections are in danger. We have rare documents over 200 years old, with importance to our heritage, which risk being burned or damaged by bandits," he said.

"I was told that the thugs are taking away the institution's furniture. They also ransacked the building's generator."

Armed groups control most of Port-au-Prince and swaths of countryside in the absence of a functioning government and continued delays in establishing a promised transitional authority.

After several days of relative calm, attacks picked up again in several neighborhoods of Port-au-Prince from Monday.

The attack on the National Library comes after assaults last week on two universities, the Ecole Normale Superieure and the National School of Arts.

The National School of Arts "promotes the development of artists and the influence of Haitian art throughout the world," UNESCO, the UN's education, science and cultural organization, said in a statement condemning vandalism at the institution.

The Ecole Normale Superieure, meanwhile, which UNESCO said was the site of an arson, is "one of the pillars" of the country's education system, as well as the oldest training institution for teachers in the country.

"These acts of vandalism, looting and arson against the country's educational institutions have devastating consequences for the future of Haitian society," UNESCO said.

Also last week, two health care facilities and 10 pharmacies were looted, the UN's humanitarian office said Wednesday, while the remaining hospitals are facing increasing strain.

The country's embattled national police said in a statement Tuesday that they were "determined and committed to restoring order and peace."

New PM incoming?

Haiti has been rocked by a surge in violence since February, when its powerful criminal gangs teamed up to attack police stations, prisons, the airport and the seaport.

They are seeking to oust Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who has been in power since the assassination of president Jovenel Moise in 2021. The country has no sitting parliament, with its last election in 2016.

The country has also been wracked for decades by poverty, natural disasters, political instability and gang violence, with Moise's assassination setting off months of spiraling insecurity even before February's clashes.

Unelected and unpopular, Henry announced March 11 he would step down as part of an internationally brokered plan to make way for a so-called transitional council.

But weeks later the council has yet to be officially formed and installed amid disagreement among the political parties and other stakeholders due to name the next prime minister -- and because of doubts over the very legality of such a council.

"We spent two and a half years with Ariel Henry who did nothing, and now in two weeks we want to do a lot of things," council member Leslie Voltaire told AFP.

He also blamed regional body CARICOM for rushing the formation of the council, though he said it would be stood up by Thursday and would elect a prime minister within a week.

(AFP)

India, grappling with election misinfo, weighs up labels and its own AI safety coalition

An Adobe-backed association wants to help organizations in the country with an AI standard

Jagmeet Singh@jagmeets13 / April 4, 2024


Image Credits: Jagmeet Singh / TechCrunch

India, long in the tooth when it comes to co-opting tech to persuade the public, has become a global hot spot when it comes to how AI is being used, and abused, in political discourse, and specifically the democratic process. Tech companies, who built the tools in the first place, are making trips to the country to push solutions.

Earlier this year, Andy Parsons, a senior director at Adobe who oversees its involvement in the cross-industry Content Authenticity Initiative (CAI), stepped into the whirlpool when he made a trip to India to visit with media and tech organizations in the country to promote tools that can be integrated into content workflows to identify and flag AI content.

“Instead of detecting what’s fake or manipulated, we as a society, and this is an international concern, should start to declare authenticity, meaning saying if something is generated by AI that should be known to consumers,” he said in an interview.

Parsons added that some Indian companies — currently not part of a Munich AI election safety accord signed by OpenAI, Adobe, Google and Amazon in February — intended to construct a similar alliance in the country.

“Legislation is a very tricky thing. To assume that the government will legislate correctly and rapidly enough in any jurisdiction is something hard to rely on. It’s better for the government to take a very steady approach and take its time,” he said.

Detection tools are famously inconsistent, but they are a start in fixing some of the problems, or so the argument goes.

“The concept is already well understood,” he said during his Delhi trip. “I’m helping raise awareness that the tools are also ready. It’s not just an idea. This is something that’s already deployed.”


Andy Parsons, senior director at Adobe. Image Credits: Adobe


The CAI — which promotes royalty-free, open standards for identifying if digital content was generated by a machine or a human — predates the current hype around generative AI: It was founded in 2019 and now has 2,500 members, including Microsoft, Meta, and Google, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and the BBC.

Just as there is an industry growing around the business of leveraging AI to create media, there is a smaller one being created to try to course-correct some of the more nefarious applications of that.

So in February 2021, Adobe went one step further into building one of those standards itself and co-founded the Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity (C2PA) with ARM, BBC, Intel, Microsoft and Truepic. The coalition aims to develop an open standard, which taps the metadata of images, videos, text and other media to highlight their provenance and tell people about the file’s origins, the location and time of its generation, and whether it was altered before it reached the user. The CAI works with C2PA to promote the standard and make it available to the masses.

Now it is actively engaging with governments like India’s to widen the adoption of that standard to highlight the provenance of AI content and participate with authorities in developing guidelines for AI’s advancement.

Adobe has nothing but also everything to lose by playing an active role in this game. It’s not — yet — acquiring or building large language models (LLMs) of its own, but as the home of apps like Photoshop and Lightroom, it’s the market leader in tools for the creative community, and so not only is it building new products like Firefly to generate AI content natively, but it is also infusing legacy products with AI. If the market develops as some believe it will, AI will be a must-have in the mix if Adobe wants to stay on top. If regulators (or common sense) have their way, Adobe’s future may well be contingent on how successful it is in making sure what it sells does not contribute to the mess.


The bigger picture in India in any case is indeed a mess.

Google focused on India as a test bed for how it will bar use of its generative AI tool Gemini when it comes to election content; parties are weaponizing AI to create memes with likenesses of opponents; Meta has set up a deepfake “helpline” for WhatsApp, such is the popularity of the messaging platform in spreading AI-powered missives; and at a time when countries are sounding increasingly alarmed about AI safety and what they have to do to ensure it, we’ll have to see what the impact will be of India’s government deciding in March to relax rules on how new AI models are built, tested and deployed. It’s certainly meant to spur more AI activity, at any rate.

Using its open standard, the C2PA has developed a digital nutrition label for content called Content Credentials. The CAI members are working to deploy the digital watermark on their content to let users know its origin and whether it is AI-generated. Adobe has Content Credentials across its creative tools, including Photoshop and Lightroom. It also automatically attaches to AI content generated by Adobe’s AI model Firefly. Last year, Leica launched its camera with Content Credentials built in, and Microsoft added Content Credentials to all AI-generated images created using Bing Image Creator.



Image Credits: Content Credentials

Parsons told TechCrunch the CAI is talking with global governments on two areas: one is to help promote the standard as an international standard, and the other is to adopt it.

“In an election year, it’s especially critical for candidates, parties, incumbent offices and administrations who release material to the media and to the public all the time to make sure that it is knowable that if something is released from PM [Narendra] Modi’s office, it is actually from PM Modi’s office. There have been many incidents where that’s not the case. So, understanding that something is truly authentic for consumers, fact-checkers, platforms and intermediaries is very important,” he said.

India’s large population, vast language and demographic diversity make it challenging to curb misinformation, he added, a vote in favor of simple labels to cut through that.

“That’s a little ‘CR’ … it’s two western letters like most Adobe tools, but this indicates there’s more context to be shown,” he said.

Controversy continues to surround what the real point might be behind tech companies supporting any kind of AI safety measure: Is it really about existential concern, or just having a seat at the table to give the impression of existential concern, all the while making sure their interests get safeguarded in the process of rule making?

“It’s generally not controversial with the companies who are involved, and all the companies who signed the recent Munich accord, including Adobe, who came together, dropped competitive pressures because these ideas are something that we all need to do,” he said in defense of the work.

 

OPINION

2024: A Space Odyssey — why the galaxy needs regulating

• 

  The European Space Agency is also looking to advance the space sustainability agenda (Photo: ESA–Stephane Corvaja, 2016)

By LENA BJÖRKHOLM AND LISE ERARD

BRUSSELS, 26. MAR, 2024

In a complex, changing, and increasingly contested space environment, nations must adopt a more comprehensive approach to space governance. Indeed, the intersection of commercial interests, technological advancements, and national security imperatives in our orbits presents new challenges.

Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine has underscored the dual nature of space technologies, which now serve both civilian and critical military purposes with increasing frequency.

The conflict has seen earth observation satellites, previously dedicated to monitoring environmental phenomena, now being employed by both Russian and Ukrainian forces for reconnaissance and intelligence-gathering in the conflict.

As a result, the protection and resilience of space-based capabilities have become critical. Countries across the world are taking note. France's recent AsterX military exercise is the latest example of the ongoing efforts to bolster space capabilities and safeguard the integrity of assets.

The European drive for regulating space

Despite an exponential increase in activities in this domain, space remains lightly regulated. In response, there is now an evident push for regional powers such as the EU to legislate and protect sovereign access to space through what could be described as a dual-track approach to safety (sustainability concerns) and security (defence-related concerns).

The EU has been reassessing its stance on space as a military domain. The 2023 Space Strategy for Security and Defence emphasises the bloc's growing reliance on space in this context.

Additionally, the first-ever European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) foresees the implementation of key projects, including Space Domain Awareness, slated for completion or advancement by 2035.

In parallel, the EU is promoting a safe and sustainable use of orbital resources through its approach to Space Traffic Management. The European Space Agency (ESA) is also looking to advance the space sustainability agenda by developing its Zero Debris Charter.

These efforts are crucial but often fail to observe the critical link between promoting space safety and ensuring overall security. In the space domain, the pressing challenge of orbital congestion necessitates the recalibration of strategy.

Adapting space defence strategies

The state of the orbital environment is now utterly different than when the first outer space treaty entered into force 60 years ago. With the emergence of the New Space industry, the number of satellites orbiting earth has surged significantly, increasing from approximately 500 to 8,000 over the past twenty-five years. As a result of this trend, the amount of trackable and non-trackable debris has skyrocketed, creating a highly fragile environment for the safe conduct of all space activities.

Orbital congestion raises the risk of collisions, posing a direct threat to space systems, including defence. Despite advances in terms of space surveillance and tracking technologies, not all debris can be monitored and therefore avoided.

Furthermore, debris resulting from kinetic and other adversarial attacks contributes to the fragility of the entire orbital environment, while often being overlooked in space defence strategies. Recent Russian warnings about nuclear space weapon development highlight broader safety concerns.

The use of a nuclear weapon in orbit would result in a substantial debris cloud, rendering nearby orbits likely impractical for use. While major spacefaring nations like Russia are unlikely to jeopardise their space assets, other nations like Iran might seek to level the playing field.

Current strategies inaccurately differentiate between safety and security concerns. Therefore, the full range of threats weighing on the integrity of space assets is hardly identified under a single common strategy and is thus difficult to address.

EU-Nato cooperation

Future laws and strategies must provide a comprehensive understanding of the challenges to our sovereign access to space. With the ability to set binding requirements to regulate access to its internal market, the EU is in a unique position to foster more sustainable behaviours.

Only a few weeks away from the publication of the first-ever proposal for a European Union Space Law (EUSL), the block must acknowledge the interdependencies between space safety and security.

Moving forward and expanding on the model of French AsterX, tabletop military exercises with like-minded partners should also be encouraged. The scenarios to be developed must consider safety risks as prime threats to military operations. Moreover, facilitating information-sharing is critical to reinforcing our common security under the EU-Nato cooperation.

AUTHOR BIO

Lena Björkholm and Lise Erard are both associates at Rasmussen Global, a political consultancy founded in 2014 by the former secretary general of Nato, Anders Fogh Rasmussen.

DISCLAIMER

The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author's, not those of EUobserver.

 

Authoritarians can lose elections, but should we be less concerned?

By MICHAEL MEYER-RESENDE

BERLIN, 4. APR, 2024

This is the story you often hear: In the old days, the military, fascists or communist parties seized power, destroyed democracy and suppressed people's freedoms. But today it is different: Populist parties attack democracy from within, infiltrate its institutions, destroy its debates through disinformation and, once in office, refuse to relinquish power.

This story, however, does not hold up. Not just because military coups are on the rise again (some are talking of a coup epidemic in Africa). And not just because, as I have argued here, the term "populism" is analytically weak and politically counterproductive — let me use the term "soft authoritarians" instead.

• 
  

  Hybrid regimes should not be confused with a new variant of democracy that we should get used to – what many call "illiberal democracy". Their violations of democratic norms are serious, blatant and ongoing.

The story does not hold up because there are not many countries in Europe where soft authoritarians have come to power and are not giving up. Only Hungary and Serbia fit the description.

In Poland, soft authoritarians lost parliamentary elections last year. In Slovakia they lost elections in 2020 — but won again in the last parliamentary elections. In other countries, soft authoritarians have joined coalition governments without being able to cement themselves in power for the long term.

Last weekend, the Turkish opposition triumphed in mayoral elections across the country, a stinging rebuke to long-serving President Erdoğan (who is more of a hard authoritarian, but is also usually described as a 'populist').

What's wrong with them?

So, what's wrong with these soft authoritarians? Are they not as bad as they are made out to be? After all, they allow themselves to be defeated in elections. Putin would not do that; he has all serious opposition candidates killed or imprisoned.

Political scientists talk about hybrid regimes. They have the core features of democracies, such as regular elections with some competition, legal opposition and freedom of speech. At the same time, the rules are rigged and manipulated to ensure that elections are not really competitive.

Imagine a football team that can only play with nine players and the referee is an employee of the other team. You can still win the game, but it is much harder. Forget about equal chances.

A hybrid regime is attractive to a leader. You excite everyone with regular elections, the opposition is hopeful, change is in the air, but in the end, you win the elections again. The impression remains that your country is a democracy and that you are simply a very popular leader. This has worked well for Erdoğan, Orbán and Serbia's Vučic.

We could have a long discussion about whether such hybrid regimes represent a distinct, stable form of government — a third form of government alongside democracy and dictatorship — or whether there is simply a continuum between ideal democracy (which is nowhere to be found) and dictatorship, and some countries just happen to be somewhere in the middle.

The more important point is the distinction. Where on a continuum would we place certain political systems? Or how exactly would we define hybrid systems? Erdoğan's rule is far harsher and more repressive than Orbán's in Hungary. His regime might be better described as authoritarian, even if the opposition can win local elections.

But that does not mean Hungary is a democracy. The elite linked to the ruling FIDESZ party is not accountable to the Hungarian people. Elections are unfair and do not meet Hungary's commitments to the OSCE. The tax-funded state media is a propaganda channel for Orban and FIDESZ. It has become difficult to distinguish between party and state. Hungary's elections to the European Parliament in June will not be democratic.

In other words, hybrid regimes should not be confused with a new variant of democracy that we should get used to (what many call "illiberal democracy"; another unfortunate term). Their violations of democratic norms are serious, blatant and ongoing.

How to deal with this

What are the policy implications? First, once a state is on course to become, or is already entrenched as a hybrid regime, do not think that tinkering with this or that element will change anything. The EU made a big mistake recently by unfreezing up to €10.2 billion of funds for the Hungarian government, with most people assuming the money was paid in response to Orbán's blackmail over Ukraine support.

Second, if the EU wants to influence such states (be they member states or EU candidates), it needs to have its eyes on the ball all the time. It cannot afford to divide its efforts between different services, with one addressing hostile corporate takeovers by the ruling party and another with changing laws against civil society organisations. They are all connected parts of authoritarianism and corruption.

Third, our public debates should reflect the nature of these challenges. If we continue to operate with imprecise and misleading terms like populism or illiberalism, we obscure the challenge to democracy. We need to focus on the bottom line.

Prime Minister Meloni of Italy may support the EU line on Ukraine, but she has also proposed constitutional reforms that would lead to an extreme concentration of power in the prime minister. That is a democracy problem.

Hybrid regimes have no inherent core that prevents them from becoming full-fledged autocracies or returning to democracy through elections. It depends on many things, especially public opinion and the regional and international environment.

In democracy, as in security, the biggest risk for Europe is that Trump will be re-elected, emboldening soft and hard authoritarians alike. It is time to step up the pressure on hybrid regimes and pre-empt a Trump contagion in Europe.

AUTHOR BIO

Michael Meyer-Resende is the executive director of Democracy Reporting International, a non-partisan NGO in Berlin that supports political participation.

DISCLAIMER

The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author's, not those of EUobserver.

Sailor’s remains identified 82 years after Pearl Harbour attack

Anthropological and dental analysis, as well as mitochondrial DNA analysis, was to identify Mr David Walker, a 19-year-old mess attendant third class from Norfolk, Virginia. 

PHOTO: NYTIMES

UPDATED
MAR 30, 2024

WASHINGTON – On Dec 7, 1941, the USS California, the flagship of the Navy’s Pacific Fleet, was moored on “battleship row” at Pearl Harbour when it was struck by Japanese torpedoes and bombs.

Officials were initially unable to identify all the 103 crew members who were killed, and the remains of 25 “unknowns” were buried in Hawaii.

But on March 28, officials announced that they had used advanced forensic technology to identify one of them as Mr David Walker, a 19-year-old mess attendant third class from Norfolk, Virginia.

“It is our duty to bring them home,” said Mr Sean Everette, a spokesman for the Defence POW/MIA Accounting Agency, or DPAA, whose mission is to find and return missing military personnel.

“It’s a promise fulfilled to the service member,” he said, adding that “we also owe it to the families to give them answers”.

Mr Walker, who attended high school in Portsmouth, Virginia, before he joined the navy, will be buried at Arlington National Cemetery in September, officials said.

A marker signifying that he has been accounted for will be placed next to his name on the Walls of the Missing at the National Memorial Cemetery of the Pacific in Honolulu.

His remains were identified in November, officials said, nearly 82 years after the attack on Pearl Harbour, and six years after the DPAA exhumed the remains of the 25 “unknowns” connected to the USS California.

Officials said the agency used anthropological and dental analysis to identify Mr Walker. Scientists from the Armed Forces Medical Examiner System also used mitochondrial DNA analysis.

As a mess attendant, Mr Walker, who was black, would have been responsible for running the ship’s galley. Mess attendants cooked, served food and cleaned dishes.

The DPAA identified Ms Cheryle Stone, 70, as Mr Walker’s next of kin. Ms Stone, who lives in Pennsylvania, said that Mr Walker was a cousin who died before she was born.

She thought about his mother, she said, and how hard it must have been for her to not know what had happened to her son.

“That had to be horrible,” Ms Stone said.

Mr Walker is one of five sailors from the USS California whose remains have been identified since 2018.

 NYTIMES

 

HRW calls for UN probe into Ethiopian army killings

By

 AFP

Human Rights Watch on Thursday called for the United Nations to investigate “war crimes” committed by the Ethiopian army in Amhara, a region that has been plagued by conflict.

The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, a public independent institution, estimated in February that at least 45 people  were killed on January 29 by government forces in Merawi city after clashes with local militia Fano.

According to testimonies collected by the New York-based rights group, after the Fano withdrew from Merawi, Ethiopian soldiers shot civilians on the streets as well as during house raids over a six-hour period.

“The soldiers also pillaged and destroyed civilian property,” HRW said in a statement.

It said the incident “was among the deadliest for civilians during the fighting between Ethiopian federal forces and Fano militia since the outbreak of fighting in Amhara in August 2023”.

HRW urged the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights to launch an independent inquiry into abuses in the region.

The NGO called on the African Union to suspend all deployments of Ethiopian federal forces to peacekeeping missions until “commanders responsible for grave abuses are held accountable”.

Laetitia Bader, the group’s deputy Africa director, said: “The Ethiopian government’s failure to ensure meaningful accountability for abuses by federal and regional forces contributes to ongoing cycles of violence and impunity.”

The deliberate killing of civilians has become a “daily occurrence” for Ethiopians in conflict zones, she said.

In early February, Ethiopia’s parliament extended a state of emergency introduced in August 2023 in Amhara — the country’s second most populous region — in an attempt to quell a so-far unsuccessful Fano insurgency.

The Fanos and other Amharas felt betrayed by a peace agreement signed in November 2022 by the government and dissident leaders of the Tigray region — long-time foes of Amhara nationalists who claim parts of Ethiopia’s northernmost region as their ancestral lands.

Who Is Anton Postolnikov? Kremlin-Linked Fintech Guru 'Saved Trump Media'

Published Apr 04, 2024 
By Brendan Cole
Senior News Reporter

Donald Trump's niece, Mary Trump, is among those who have raised questions about the Russian-American businessman Anton Postolnikov, who according to The Guardian kept afloat the former president's social media company Trump Media through emergency loans.

Trump may earn billions from the merger between Trump Media and Technology Group and Digital World Acquisition Corporation, which took the parent company of Truth Social public on March 26 on the Nasdaq exchange with shares trading at a high of $78.

But a report by The Guardian about the links to the deal involving Postolnikov has sparked a strong reaction online, including from Mary Trump, who posted on X that her uncle "has shown time and again that he is willing to do business with anyone."

The Guardian said that regulators had opened a securities investigation into the merger in 2021 and that Trump Media spent a lot of money the following year as it waited for its stock market debut.

The paper said that Trump Media took emergency loans, two of which were worth $8 million, in the form of convertible promissory notes, from an entity called the ES Family Trust, which opened an account with Paxum Bank that is co-owned by Postolnikov.

Postolnikov is reportedly the nephew of Aleksandr Smirnov, a former Russian deputy minister of justice who worked in President Vladimir Putin's executive office up to 2017. Postolnikov is also the subject of a criminal investigation by the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security over his role in the TMTG merger, The Guardian reported.

Newsweek has approached Postolnikov for comment via Paxum Bank.

Neither Trump nor TMTG has been accused of any wrongdoing, and there is no sign that they knew about the background to the loans. A lawyer representing Trump Media told The Guardian that it was "a false narrative that TMTG has these fake connections to Russia."

In a statement to Newsweek, TMTG said: "The Guardian's defamatory reporting on TMTG is already the subject of ongoing litigation, through which the full extent of their malicious falsehoods will become clear."

In 2017, Postolnikov faced an arrest warrant in his home city of St. Petersburg on charges of tax fraud, according to a court ruling obtained by The Washington Post in February. That warrant was lifted the following year after the direct intervention of Russia's deputy prosecutor general, who said the case was without merit, the paper said.

Paxum Bank does not have a banking license in the U.S. and is not regulated by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

The Guardian said this was a concern because it could indicate the ES Family Trust had been used by Postolnikov "to loan money to help save Trump Media—and the Truth Social platform— because his bank itself could not furnish the loan."

Postolnikov has not been charged with any crime but has been listed on recent search warrant affidavits along with associates including Michael Shvartsman.

Michael Shvartsman, a Florida venture capitalist, and his brother Gerald Shvartsman pleaded guilty on Wednesday to participating in an insider trading scheme linked to the deal that took Trump's social media business public, CNN reported.

On the Russian business website executive.ru, Postolnikov is described as expert and developer of financial technologies, creating fintech projects in Russia and overseas. The profile said he was born in Russia but educated in the U.S.

It said he completed his secondary education in 1999 at the International Studies Academy in San Francisco and went on to study at Skyline College and at the College of Marin in the Bay Area.

Mary Trump, a vehement critic of her uncle, wrote on X that "the critical part of the story" isn't just that Postolnikov is the nephew of an ally of Putin but "that who invests in Truth Social is largely obscured."

"Donald has shown time and again that he is willing to do business with anyone, and take money from anyone, as long as it serves his interests," she said, adding, "it's vital for us keep a close eye on Truth Social. With such a high valuation and little profit, the company is screaming for an investigation into FEC or SEC violations."

A spokesperson for the SEC told Newsweek: "We decline comment."

Meanwhile, Olga Lautman, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) asked on X how the SEC cleared the merger. "Do we have laws?"

Update 04/04/24, 11 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with responses from TMTG and the SEC.

"Wait, please" - IRC's New Report Sheds Light on Violation of Asylum Rights in Italy


Milan, April 4, 2024 — The new report by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) sheds light on the serious violations of basic rights that asylum seekers are facing in major Italian cities while trying to apply for international protection. Across Italy, individuals seeking asylum face prolonged waits while Immigration Offices handle their applications, or are turned away by the Police Stations, who tell them to "wait, please."

The report comes out exactly a year after the Police Headquarters and the Prefecture of Milan adopted a new online system to access the procedure for the recognition of international protection. While the digital solution was designed to alleviate barriers to accessing the asylum procedure, in practice, discriminatory practices persist.

Stuck in an asylum vacuum, people are left without proper documentation, means of living and accommodation, a limbo that can last for several months. This waiting period puts people in a vulnerable and uncertain position, highlighting the pressing need for more efficient and compassionate processing procedures to ensure timely registration and support. The sheer volume of asylum applications—13,000 filed in January 2024 alone - underscores the pressing need to act.

Susanna Zanfrini, IRC's Italy Country Director, said:

"Widespread delays or obstacles in submitting applications for international protection that we have documented across Italy represent a serious violation of fundamental rights. We argue that access to asylum remains significantly restricted, if not entirely blocked, in various parts of Italy, as the Italian government's focus leans heavily on preventing arrivals in Europe rather than bolstering the reception system.

“It's time to shift from walls to welcome. Offering dignified reception and ongoing support to those seeking refuge, regardless of their country of origin or the journey they have undertaken, is a backbone of fair and humane treatment for all."

Flaminia Delle Cese, IRC’s Legal and Advocacy Advisor in Italy, added:

"Giving people fleeing conflict, persecution, and disaster the chance to apply for international protection with dignity is not only a legal obligation but also an act of humanity. The Italian state must urgently resolve obstacles to the submission of requests for international protection and establish minimum standards so that people are properly taken care of while their claims are being assessed."


IRC IN ITALY

Present in the country since 2017, the IRC currently has 40 staff in Italy. Since January 2022 IRC Italy reached 270.526 clients responding to the needs of people seeking protection through providing direct support to clients, working with local organizations, national authorities and institutions to improve the asylum system and humanitarian conditions. Actions cover the impacted regions of Lombardy, Sicily, Lazio, Piedmont and Friuli Venezia Giulia aiming to enhance refugees’ safety, power, education, economic empowerment and mental health – with a focus on the most vulnerable, including women and unaccompanied children (UAC).

Meta’s long-standing problem with “shaheed”

An overdue ruling from the Oversight Board.

By RUSSELL BRANDOM
This article originally appeared in Exporter, a weekly newsletter covering the latest on U.S. tech giants and their impact outside the West, with Russell Brandom. 

On Tuesday, the Meta-established Oversight Board released a new ruling on how Facebook moderates the Arabic word “shaheed,” which translates roughly to “martyr.” Meta had been automatically flagging the word when applied to a person on its Dangerous Organizations and Individuals list, taking it as an inherent call to violence. When the Oversight Board case re-examining the policy was announced, “shaheed” was responsible for more content removals than any other single word or phrase.

This week’s ruling found that Meta’s policy “disproportionately restricts freedom of expression and civic discourse” — which is a long way of saying it was taking down too much content that shouldn’t have been taken down. As it tried to stop users from glorifying terrorists, the company had instead made the entire topic of political violence off-limits to Arabic speakers.

Marwa Fatafta, who directs Middle East policy at Access Now, told me Meta’s treatment of “shaheed” is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of how the word is used. “It’s a word that comes from Islam, but it’s used by Arabic speakers regardless of religion,” Fatafta says. “At least in the Palestine context, you refer to anyone killed by the Israeli army as ‘shaheed’ — or anyone killed in an act of political violence.”

That could include people like Shireen Abu Akleh, the Al Jazeera reporter killed by Israeli soldiers in 2022, but it could also include Egyptian protestors killed in Tahrir Square. Given the ongoing horror in Palestine, it would be difficult to talk about any of the victims without using some version of the word.

It’s tempting to read the decision as a response to the violence in Palestine, but the opposite is true: The board announced it was tackling the case last March, and delayed the decision in the wake of the October 7 attacks. Meta had launched its review of how the word was being moderated in 2020, but the review concluded without reaching a consensus. Without some kind of outside nudge, there simply wasn’t enough political will within the company to change the rule.

Part of the problem here is a simple language issue. Overreading the meaning of an Arabic word is easier when there are fewer native speakers of the language at high levels of the company. Even after the issue was raised, it lingered unresolved — perhaps because the company’s leadership didn’t see it as a priority. Such language bias is pervasive in the tech industry, where global tools are still mostly made by English speakers, and this is a prime example.

But the problem doesn’t end there. Fatafta described the policy as “a stigmatization of Arabic populations,” and it’s hard to disagree. Throughout the West, there’s a sad tendency to see Arabic speakers as only the perpetrators of political violence, never the victims. In Meta’s case, that tendency ended up being written into moderation policy and operationalized at a massive scale. It’s the kind of de jure discrimination that the Oversight Board was founded to address. The greatest frustration is that Meta couldn’t solve this problem on its own.


Russell Brandom is the U.S. Tech Editor at Rest of World.