SUSIE BLANN and ILLIA NOVIKOV
Mon, April 15, 2024
Workers repair damaged thermal power plant, one of the country's largest, recently destroyed by Russian missiles near Kharkiv, Ukraine, Friday, April 12, 2024.
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The success of Israel and its allies in largely thwarting a massive Iranian missile and drone attack shows what Ukraine could achieve against Russian aerial barrages if it had more support from its partners, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Monday.
A recent Russian aerial campaign targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and other targets has wrought extensive damage, and Ukrainian officials have pleaded with the country’s Western allies to provide more air defense systems as the war stretches into its third year.
Israel’s defense system, with assistance from the U.S. and Britain — countries that are also supporting Ukraine’s war effort — is credited with preventing serious damage or casualties in Sunday’s attack by Iran using more than 300 drones and missiles.
Kuleba, speaking to reporters in Kyiv, urged Ukraine’s allies to “give us what we need and we will do the rest of the job.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made the same point late Sunday, referring to the Iranian attack. “The whole world sees what real defense is. It sees that it is feasible,” he wrote on Telegram.
Russia last week fired nearly 130 exploding drones, more than 80 Russian missiles and nearly 700 guided aerial bombs at Ukraine, Zelenskyy said Sunday on the social platform X. He has pleaded with allies to send more Patriot systems.
However, the Institute for the Study of War noted there are key differences between the challenges faced by Israel and by Ukraine.
“Russian forces launch drones and missiles from throughout occupied Ukraine and in close proximity to Ukraine from within Russia, affording Ukrainian air defenders a fraction of the time that Israel and its allies leveraged to successfully blunt the mass Iranian missile and drone strike,” the Washington think tank said in an assessment late Sunday.
The scale and improved accuracy of recent Russian attacks have unnerved Ukraine’s defenders. They say Kremlin forces now have better intelligence and fresh tactics in their campaign to destroy Ukraine’s power grid and crush its economy. Moscow has also apparently learned how to exploit gaps in air defenses across the huge country.
That development has added to Ukraine’s problems, as the Kremlin's forces seize the battlefield advantage. At the same time, Ukraine is struggling with shortages of ammunition and troops. Ukraine’s military chief on Saturday warned that the battlefield situation in the industrial east has recently significantly worsened.
A crucial hurdle to receiving more air defense supplies is the hold-up in Washington of House approval for a U.S. aid package that includes roughly $60 billion for Ukraine. House Speaker Mike Johnson said Sunday he will try to move the package forward this week.
“The exhaustion of U.S.-provided air defenses resulting from delays in the resumption of U.S. military assistance to Ukraine combined with improvements in Russian strike tactics have led to increasing effectiveness of the Russian strike campaign in Ukraine,” the Institute for the Study of War said.
The US says it won't shoot down drones over Ukraine, despite doing the same to protect Israel
Sinéad Baker
Tue, April 16, 2024
The US helped shoot down Iranian drones and missiles fired at Israel over the weekend.
Ukraine's president said the response showed what could be done to protect his own country.
But the White House said it wouldn't do the same for Ukraine, calling it a "different threat picture."
The White House said on Monday that it would not shoot down drones for Ukraine, despite having done so for Israel over the weekend.
Israel said that Iran fired more than 300 drones and missiles at it on Saturday night. The US, UK, France, and Jordan said they helped to stop the barrage, including through the use of aircraft.
White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby was asked in a media briefing if the US could also help to shoot down drones over Ukraine.
Kirby responded: "I knew this question was coming too. Look, different conflicts. Different conflicts, different airspace, different threat picture."
He said that President Joe Biden "has been clear since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, the United States is not gonna be involved in that conflict in a combat role, and we haven't."
Ukrainian military personnel display a downed Russian drone during a press conference.SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images
Russia has been firing drones and missiles across Ukraine as part of its full-scale invasion, often hitting and destroying energy infrastructure, as well as residential buildings, and killing civilians.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the response to Iran's aerial attack on Israel "demonstrated how truly effective unity in defending against terror can be when it is based on sufficient political will."
"Together, they prevented terror from prevailing," he added. "And they are working together, and in coordination with others, to prevent further escalation."
Zelenskyy said that similar actions should be taken to protect Ukraine.
Many of Ukraine's allies, including the US, have said they are trying to help without escalating the conflict with Russia. But some world leaders have rebuffed this, saying Russia will escalate the war either way.
Zelenskyy said the response to the attack on Israel also showed that NATO members can protect non-member states, and could protect Ukraine, which is not part of the military alliance, in the same way.
"Israel is not a NATO member, so no action, such as triggering Article 5, was required," he said, referring to the alliance's collective defense clause.
"No one was dragged into the war," Zelenskyy added. "They simply contributed to the protection of human life."
A woman stands next to a destroyed house in Lyman, Donetsk region in Ukraine, in April 2022.REUTERS/Jorge Silva
Zelenskyy went on to say that "European skies could have received the same level of protection long ago if Ukraine had received similar full support from its partners in intercepting drones and missiles."
Ukraine is running critically low on air defense missiles, which means Russia's attacks are more likely to get through.
Republicans in Congress have stalled further aid for Ukraine over the past six months, preventing any new supplies coming from the US.
Kirby said the US had previously given Ukraine "the tools that they need to help defend their space. And unfortunately, we can't do that right now, because we don't have the National Security Supplemental funding that they so desperately need."
Experts previously told BI that Ukrainian shortages would likely allow Russia's air force to fly freely, which could have effects so devastating that it could bring about a quick end to the war.
Laura Kelly
Mon, April 15, 2024
Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel showed that the Islamic Republic has learned key lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine, employing a strategy to overwhelm air defenses with a layered assault including swarms of drones and missiles traveling faster than the speed of sound.
For Ukraine and its supporters, the attack further demonstrated the dangerous link between Moscow and Tehran and, in their view, should strengthen the argument that defeating Russia in Ukraine will weaken aggressors threatening the U.S. and its allies around the world.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday condemned the Iranian attack and its use of “Shahed” drones.
“We in Ukraine know very well the horror of similar attacks by Russia, which uses the same ‘Shahed’ drones and Russian missiles, the same tactics of mass air strikes,” Zelensky said in a statement. “The obvious collaboration between the two regimes in spreading terror must face a resolute and united response from the world.”
Russia has deployed the Iranian-made drones against Ukraine for more than a year and a half, with cooperation between Tehran and Moscow improving on the design of the drones, strategies of attacks and capabilities.
“There’s no doubt in my mind that in the same way we’re learning about how our weapons work on the modern-day battlefield — because we’re giving those to Ukraine — there’s no doubt that the Iranians are learning about what works and what doesn’t work, about their drones being used in Ukraine as well,” said Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute.
Coffey pointed to both small and large adjustments Iran has made to its drone fleet, from better camouflage to engine upgrades that make the drones faster and more agile.
“But there’s also something that goes beyond the technical aspect — it’s more about the tactics and the procedures that I think the Iranians have learned from Russia’s airstrikes in Ukraine,” Coffey said.
“This package of airstrikes looks very similar to what we see in Ukraine, from Russia. Meaning that you have an array of different aerial munitions — cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, drones — and they’re all launched either in waves or in such a way that the timing overwhelms air defense.”
Israel, in what is being described as a complex coordinated effort with the U.S., Jordan and other allies, succeeded in blunting an attack from Iran on Saturday. Iran said it launched its attack on Israel in retaliation for an April 1 bombing of its consulate in Syria where senior Iranian military leaders were killed.
The Israeli military said that Iran fired approximately 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles and 30 cruise missiles, adding that nearly all were shot down.
“What Iran did, by sending drones first and then missiles, this is a tactic that the Russians are doing, too. There is a connection between them,” said Sina Azodi, visiting scholar and a professorial lecturer of international affairs at The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs.
“From a short-term perspective, you can say this is a defeat for Iranians or they were not successful, but at the end of the day, I think they’re also watching, they’ve seen how their drones or missiles were shot down, and they’re taking notes on how to improve things,” Azodi continued.
“They’ve also tested what would happen in a potential conflict. What would the United States, or Jordanian, and others do? And they just tested how capable Israel’s missile defense system is. They’re taking notes. I’m pretty sure they’re going to work to improve the weapon systems that they have. And I think this is a lesson that the Russians are doing too.”
The Institute for the Study of War, in an analysis, said that while Iran likely anticipated that Israel would have a more robust air defense system compared to Ukraine, it likely was surprised by Israel’s overall success.
“Ukrainian air defenses have averaged interception rates of only about 46% of Russian ballistic missiles during recent large strikes. The Iranians likely expected that Israeli rates would be higher than the Ukrainian rates but not above 90% against such a large ballistic missile salvo,” the group wrote in its analysis.
“The Russians, after all, have never fired close to that many large ballistic missiles in a single strike against Ukraine.”
Israel’s successful defense is being credited as built on years of preparation and training, but also closer ties with Gulf states made possible by the Abraham Accords.
Still, the Iranian attack is being described as a significant challenge.
Retired Israeli Maj. Gen. Yaacov Ayish, senior vice president for Israeli Affairs at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, described Iran’s drone and missile assault as trying to “overwhelm and to saturate” Israel’s air defense network, but also U.S. and other regional partners.
The combination of drones and cruise missiles had the effect of “stretching intelligence and detecting capabilities of the different layers,” Ayish said.
“Definitely they were aware of some of those capabilities and they were trying to overwhelm them,” he added, referring to Iran.
The White House has taken pains to not explicitly link the two fights.
“These are different conflicts, different air spaces, different threat picture,” John Kirby, the White House national security communications adviser, said Monday.
“The president has been clear since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, the U.S. is not going to be involved in that conflict in a combat role. We have been providing Ukraine the tools they need to defend their air space, unfortunately we can’t do that right now because we don’t have the national security supplemental funding that they need.”
But the White House is pushing for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to allow a vote on the Senate-passed $95 billion national security supplemental, which includes aid for Ukraine, Israel and other priorities.
“You’ve got two good friends here, Israel and Ukraine, very different fights to be sure, but active fights for their sovereignty and their security,” Kirby said.
“Time is not on anyone’s side here, in either case. They need to move quickly on this, and the best way to get that aid into the hands of the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] and into the hands of Ukrainian soldiers is to pass that bipartisan bill that the Senate passed.”
