It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Friday, July 05, 2024
Cranfield and LIPTON Teas and Infusions begin advanced climate change mitigation and resilience field trials
The project, supported by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) and UK Tea & Infusions Association (UKTIA), aims to improve tea production standards and create data and resources that can benefit the whole industry. The project is co-led and managed by Dr Helen Saini, Head of R&D Sustainable Agriculture at LIPTON Teas and Infusions, and Andrew Thompson, Professor of Molecular Plant Science and Head of Soil, Agrifood and Biosciences at Cranfield University.
Tea has the second lowest carbon footprint after tap water but about a quarter of its total greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to fertiliser use. In addition, climate change is threatening tea-growing regions of East Africa with deeper and longer dry seasons. Part-funded by the BBSRC as a Prosperity Partnership, trials are now underway in the Kericho region of Kenya to develop solutions to reduce nitrogen fertilizer-related emissions, and to accelerate the breeding of drought resistant varieties of tea using advanced technologies for selection.
The partnership will use drone imagery and analysis for improved crop management, precision farming, and high-throughput canopy phenotyping to develop climate resilient tea plant strains.
Recorded emissions data will also inform a new tea typology led by the UKTIA, the Tea & Herbal Association of Canada and the Tea Association of the USA, enabling tea producers to calculate their carbon footprint with greater accuracy, with results that are comparable across the tea industry. This is intended for use by the whole tea industry.
The research findings will contribute to industry-wide progress through the Lipton Tea Innovation & Technology Academy curricula. This Academy, inaugurated with the Government of Kenya and the University of Kabianga earlier this year, provides vocational training as well as degrees up to doctoral level to develop the highest standards of tea cultivation, harvesting, and processing. LIPTON Teas and Infusions is licensing its Intellectual Property to the Academy for free.
Taisa Hansen, Chief Research & Innovation Officer of LIPTON Teas and Infusions, said: “Combining our experience of tea growing with Cranfield University’s specialist research capabilities will enable us to identify the key innovations that this industry requires. We are moving fast because climate change will not wait. Our profound thanks go to BBSRC and UKTIA as, together, this multi-million-euro project will support the entire tea industry and further our mission to create value for all.”
Professor Leon Terry, Pro-Vice-Chancellor of Research and Innovation at Cranfield University, said: “The BBSRC grant, the deep technical expertise of our leading scientists, and the support of a tea company with the scale and experience of LIPTON Teas and Infusions, will ensure well-informed first-class research supports a sustainable future for tea.”
Anti-trans campaigner Posie Parker loses deposit after dismal election performance Jul 05 Written by Sophie Perry Posie Parker aka Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull stood for the Party of Women in Bristol Central. (Getty)
Anti-trans campaigner Posie Parker has lost her deposit after receiving a dismal number of votes for the Party of Women in the general election.
Parker, whose real name is Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull, is one of the UK’s most recognisable anti-trans campaigners and leader of the Party of Women, a gender-critical single-issue party dedicated to opposing so-called ‘transgender ideology’.
The controversial figure stood during the election for the newly-created Bristol Central seat, which was won by Green Party’s out bisexual co-leader Carla Denyer, who told PinkNews ahead of the election that “pushing for greater trans equality and trans rights in society” does not “threaten [her] rights as a woman”.
Denyer took the seat with a 24,539 votes, a 56.6 per cent of the vote, whilst Parker received just 196 votes, equal to 0.5 per cent.
The dismal result means Parker will lose her deposit after garnering less than 5% of the vote.
Liberal Democrats win over 60 seats in best result since coalition government
The Lib Dems are now the third largest party in the House of Commons once again
Labour has won a landslide victory in the general election, with Keir Starmer set to enter Number 10 as the UK’s next prime minister.
But the story of the election isn’t just the Labour victory, it’s also the Tory wipeout. The Liberal Democrats have made massive gains at the Tories’ expense, winning more than 60 seats.
At the time of writing, the Lib Dems have made 55 gains, taking their total seat tally to 62. That’s the best result for the party since at least 2005, and marks a moment of major recovery after almost a decade in the wilderness.
After the Lib Dems entered into the coalition government in 2010, the party was decimated in subsequent elections. In 2015, the Lib Dems won just 8 seats.
The resurgence for the Lib Dems will see Ed Davey’s party return to being the third largest party in the House of Commons.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
General Election 2024 - this is why city said 'Yes To Jess' and the Lib Dem's Jess Brown-Fuller won Chichester by a huge margin
Results were still coming in as the sun rose over Sussex today (July 5) but the political earthquake that had been predicted was already being felt in what was traditionally the most Conservative of seats - Chichester.
Throughout the campaign, polling companies had suggested it was on a knife-edge - some giving it to the Conservatives and others to the Lib Dems; and even after the 10pm Exit Poll on July 4, the Daily Telegraph's data science team was suggesting a Conservative hold for the Education Secretary Gillian Keegan.
In the end, it wasn't remotely close.
The Lib-Dems Jess Brown-Fuller stormed to victory with 25,540 votes (49.2%) with Gillian Keegan a distant second with 13,368 (25.7%).
Jess Brown-Fuller, the Lib-Dem winner of Chichester, is pictured (right) at a political hustings with the other candidates and independent chair Gary Shipton (centre) at Chichester Cathedral. Photo: contributed
Reform UK's Teresa De Santis delivered a decent third position 7,859 votes (15.1%) - but even if everyone who backed Reform had switched to Tory it would not have stopped the Lib Dems. For the first time in a century, Chichester - where it was once said even the grass grew blue and the Tory vote was 'weighed rather than counted' - the Roman cathedral city changed its hue.
Quite apart from the national swing against the Tories, it was clear on the ground that there were a number of local factors which meant this was always going to be tough to retain.
The boundary changes had robbed it of some historically prime Conservative votes and the Lib Dem campaign had repeated the message throughout that 'Labour could not win here' and asked for other parties’ supporters to lend the Lib Dems their vote to oust the Tories. That request had clearly hit the mark given the modest count for Labour and the Greens.
But on the streets of Chichester, discontent also ran deep not just on national failures by the government but a range of local ones too. The Conservative-controlled county council's abject failure to keep the pot-hole ridden roads in a decent state of repair throughout the winter and its ludicrous restrictions on using the amenity tip; fury at Southern Water over sewage discharges especially around the prized harbour - which the Lib Dems focused hard on; and the declining state of local public services and the city centre itself - combined with no plan to upgrade the A27 or to provide the infrastructure to support endless housing developments on the neighbouring green fields.
Many, fairly or not, felt Gillian Keegan should have been seen to be far more pro-active on all these fronts - with the consequence that many long-standing Conservatives were also happy to lend the Lib Dems their vote as well.
The signals had been clear for more than a year when the district council fell to the Lib Dems.
Finally, but perhaps most importantly of all, Jess Brown-Fuller and her small team, ran a breath-takingly good campaign which began many, many months before the starting pistol was fired on this general election.
Victories on this scale have to be hard-worked for - and no-one should doubt the tenacity, determination, passion, and professionalism that sparked this particular earthquake.
This website and newspaper does not support parties or politicians - but we also have a unique view of the constituency. We extend our commiserations to Gillian Keegan and acknowledge the strong campaign that she ran. The truth is, 25,540 people thought the only candidate who deserved to win was Jess; residents acted on her slogan and said 'Yes' to her; and today we whole-heartedly congratulate her on her historic victory.
Now the work begins to deliver on the promises she made.
Lib Dems celebrate triple win in Cambridgeshire
By Harriet Heywood & Orla Moore, BBC News, Cambridgeshire
Emma Howgego/BBC
Ian Sollom and Pippa Heylings have been elected as new Liberal Democrat MPs in what has been a winning night for the party
Ballots from six Cambridgeshire constituencies have led to a damaging night for the Conservatives and an impressive gain for the Liberal Democrats.
The Liberal Democrats took conservative seats from Ely and East Cambridgeshire, St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire, and South Cambridgeshire.
The Conservatives held onto Huntingdon and Steve Barclay retained his seat in North East Cambridgeshire, Labour also kept its hold on Cambridge.
Although the evening saw a huge change to Cambridgeshire's MPs, there was a notable fall in votes compared to the 2019 general elections.
'A difficult night'
Jenny Kirk/BBC Steve Barclay retains his seat in a damaging night for the Tories
Stephen Barclay retained the North East Cambridgeshire seat for the Conservatives with a vastly reduced majority of 16,246 votes, followed by Reform UK with 9,057 and Labour which attained 8,008.
He said the win was "against a very difficult night for the conservatives".
"Many friends and many good colleagues will have lost their seats and many people who voted for the conservatives last time were not able to do so this time.
"I have been engaging every day of the campaign and heard concerns and I think it us incumbent on us all to go away and reflect on what people have said so we can ensure that our conservative values are ones that they identify with going forward." 'Close margin'
David Webster/BBC Ms Cane said her first job would be to improve social housing in the constituency
Charlotte Cane took Ely and East Cambridgeshire for the Liberal Democrats, replacing Conservative Lucy Frazer.
She won 17,127 votes, 495 more than her Tory rival who deemed it a "close margin".
Ms Cane said her first job would be to improve social housing in the constituency and praised leader Sir Ed Davy who drew attention to their policies with his stunts.
Ms Frazer, the former MP for East Cambridgeshire said it was a honour to serve the people of East Cambridgeshire and said that the reason the Conservatives lost was due to the party being divided.
Matthew Webb/BBC Daniel Zeichner held Cambridge for Labour
Labour candidate Daniel Zeichner was re-elected in Cambridge, a seat he has held since 2015.
He achieved 19,614 votes compared to second place Liberal Democrats on 8,536.
Voter turnout in Cambridge was 60.4%.
This is a drop from the 2019 general election, where turnout was 67.2%.
'Historic moment'
Emma Howgego/BBC Pippa Heylings takes South Cambridgeshire for the Liberal Democrats
Pippa Heylings has been elected as the new Liberal Democrat MP for South Cambridgeshire, taking the seat from the Conservatives.
She takes the seat from Conservative Anthony Browne, who ran for the Tories in St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire this time round.
She said the result was a "historic moment for the Liberal Democrats nationally, and here in South Cambridge".
"No matter how you voted in this election I reinstate my commitment to you," she said.
"I hear you, I will fight for you, for a positive and inclusive future for South Cambridge.
"Whenever decisions are being taken in Westminster [I will] make sure our needs are understood."
Emma Howgego/BBC Mr Sollom seemed overwhelmed with emotion during his acceptance speech
Meanwhile, Ian Sollom of the Liberal Democrats has taken the seat from Conservative candidate Anthony Browne in St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire.
He gained 19,517 votes - a 4,621 majority over Mr Browne.
Shortly afterwards Mr Browne joked that his loss would mean he would be going down to the job centre tomorrow - and that it is a shame it is in Huntingdon and not St Neots.
'Beaten the odds'
Kate Moser Andon/BBC Conservative Ben Obese-Jecty holds Huntingdon for the Conservatives
Ben Obese-Jecty has been elected as the Conservative Member of Parliament for Huntingdon.
He won with 18,257 votes, with a margin of fewer than 2,000 votes. He holds the seat vacated by Jonathan Djanogly.
Mr Obese-Jecty says he is very pleased to have "beaten the odds".
Analysis by BBC political reporter, Emma Howgego
Cambridgeshire’s political colour has turned from mostly blue to a rainbow of colour.
A cabinet minister has lost her seat, there are three new Liberal Democrat seats and Labour have strengthened their standing.
It was the election of three Liberal Democrats that has been the big story.
The party has been campaigning in South Cambridgeshire for a number of years.
Pippa Heylings was selected as their candidate very early on and it has been one of their top target seats.
Ian Sollom’s win in neighbouring St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire was always a real possibility too.
But it is the victory of East Cambridgeshire councillor Charlotte Cane over the former Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer that is the story of the night.
On Sunday a Liberal Democrat canvasser told me he believed there would be around 500 votes separating the win in Ely and East Cambridgeshire.
Today’s result showed that was a very accurate picture.
Tory wipeout delivers Labour a landslide victory: what the experts say
Labour has won the UK general election and is expected to achieve a landslide of around 400 seats in parliament, leaving the Conservatives on little more than 100 and the SNP set to have fewer than 10. The Liberal Democrats have won at least 60 seats and the Greens have won at least four, as have Reform which has also come second in many races.
Here you’ll find expert reaction to results as they continue to come in. We’ll be updating this page throughout election night so bookmark it and return for the latest reactions, or follow along on X (formerly Twitter)
How the result breaks down Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary, University of London
What this election shows us is that the 2017 and 2019 elections were a temporary reversal of a long term trend towards a more fragmented party system in the UK. Without taking anything away from Labour’s landslide,
The results for the Liberal Democrats, Reform and the Greens, at least in terms of vote share rather than seat share for the latter two, as well as the Conservatives collapse and Labour’s own low vote share, suggest that the UK’s progress towards truly multi-party politics is ongoing, and that the dominance of the two main parties, perhaps more than ever, relies on the country’s continued commitment to first past the post.
Whether that commitment remains a permanent one over the course of the next decade or so will be fascinating to watch.
A fragmenting party system. Andrew S. Roe-Crines, Senior Lecturer in British Politics, University of Liverpool
The Conservatives have been removed from government with a definitive and firm verdict from voters that it is time for a change with Labour. At one stage it looked as though the Conservatives could be facing an extinction-level result of fewer than 100 seats. In the end, the Tories managed to secure 119 seats and counting. Labour, in contrast, have been gifted a mandate that will enable Starmer to do anything he wishes to govern Britain (not withstanding the financial situation of the country, which will act as a barrier to delivery).
There are, of course, certain priorities that voters will expect to see. For example, finding a solution to the Rwanda policy, addressing the financial crisis in higher education and restoring the NHS to a functional service that people can use and be proud of.
The other parties have seen something of a restoration of normality, with the Liberal Democrats returning to their pre-coalition position of strength by securing over 70 seats, alongside the cutting down of the SNP to fewer than 10. These changes return the Liberal Democrats to the position of third party, while the issue of Scottish independence appears permanently rested by the decline of the SNP.
Now joining the smaller parties is Reform, however, the extent they will be able to trouble the government remains to be seen. They could become an irritant for the Conservatives, who now have an important choice to make: renew by learning the lesson of the defeat and becoming more electable, or turning inwards and indulging the ideological comfort zones that would keep them in opposition for longer than necessary.
Tory leadership race starts to take shape Victoria Honeyman, Associate Professor of Politics, University of Leeds
We are seeing some of the big hitters from the Conservative party lose their seats, for example, Penny Mordaunt in Portsmouth North. This leads to an interesting phenomenon where you begin to view the runners and riders for the Conservative party leadership, and you get to see whether or not they’re actually going to be in the party … If you want to challenge for the leadership of the party, then essentially you need to be in parliament.
We’re also seeing other people really begin to set the tone of the campaigns that they want to fight. So for example, Suella Braverman in her speech at the Hustings, talking about the mistakes that the Conservative Party have made.
A big night for Reform Francesco Rigoli, Reader in Psychology, City, University of London
The rightwing populist narrative is alive and well in the UK, and Farage is its unquestionable champion.
Will the Tories seek to compete against Farage over this narrative? Or will they seek an alliance? Major reconfigurations will occur on the right, but it is no longer fanciful to picture Farage winning the next election.
The Brexit referendum and the recent elections in Europe and the US demonstrate that rightwing populist parties can suddenly surge in popularity and win elections – Farage aims
to follow this trend and he should not be underestimated.
Lone Sorensen, Associate Professor of Political Communication, University of Leeds
Notable in this election is the Reform Party’s preference for a charismatic, personalistic leader in Nigel Farage, who, having won his Clacton seat, is promising “something that is going to stun all of you” in his acceptance speech. Reform is looking set to be able to have a significant impact in the incoming parliament with multiple seats accompanying Farage on the benches.
This will enable the Reform UK leader to capitalise on his tactic of disruption, which is one of his populist hallmarks. We can expect a much more chaotic and difficult-to-control practice of norm-breaking from Farage and his fellow MPs to make life challenging for Starmer and the more sober opposition.
Mark Garnett, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Lancaster University
Nigel Farage has won in Clacton and Reform is now likely to become the most potent rightwing force in British politics for the next five years at least, attracting the kind of populist-leaning Conservative activists who have been the dominant force in their party since Brexit. As things stand, it is very possible that there will not be a significant party claiming the toxic Tory brand at the next general election.
Greens quadruple Commons presence Ben Williams, Associate Tutor in Politics and Social Sciences, Edge Hill University
The Green Party has won four of its target seats.
Having won only 2.7% of the vote and one seat in 2019, they were never realistically going to form the next government, especially given the UK electoral system. However, the party’s leadership expected progress, largely on the back of positive local election results over recent years.
A quadrupling of Green parliamentary representation will therefore be viewed as a welcome development, marking a further fragmentation of the traditional British party system into a more multi-party model.
What is both interesting and difficult, however is the different types of seats that the Greens have won. Bristol and Brighton have a more liberal, younger and urban electorate, while other seats gained by the Greens are in more rural and socially conservative areas, Herefordshire and Waveney Valley. The party may therefore face challenges in maintaining this fairly diverse electoral base if it is to continue its ongoing upward trajectory.
Labour surges in Scotland Eric Shaw, Honorary Research Fellow, University of Stirling
Scotland is the only part of the UK where Labour has appreciably increased its vote and, in so doing, inflicted a major defeat on the SNP. The seat in which I reside, Stirling and Strathallan, is a measure of the party’s progress. Labour trailed a poor third in 2019 and the seat was not even on the party’s target list in 2024. The Labour candidate, Chris Kane, was chosen very late in the day and had to rely on his own resources. But Labour beat the SNP by around 2 percentage points.
Two major reasons account for Labour’s resurgence: accumulated frustration and loss of confidence in the SNP government and a restoration in faith in Labour. Since the balance of opinion over the constitutional question hasn’t altered, this means that a significant number of pro-independence voters backed Labour. That, in turn, reflects the degree to which many voters switch between Scotland’s two major parties.
Whether or not Labour can consolidate its hold in Scotland in the Holyrood elections will depend heavily on the success of the new Starmer government in tackling the myriad social and economic problems it has inherited.
Jeremy Corbyn wins his seat as an independent Pippa Catterall, Professor of History and Policy, University of Westminster
Jeremy Corbyn has retained his seat in Islington North, this time as an independent, with a stonking majority of around 8,000 over his previous party. It’s not surprising that he has won this seat yet again, having represented it for over 40 years now. He is very popular, works hard, and is, I suspect, seen by his constituents as having been treated badly by Keir Starmer. It will be interesting to see how much of a thorn in the side he is for the new, we presume, prime minister in the coming parliament.
The result in Wales Huw Lewis, Senior Lecturer in International Politics, Aberystwyth University
All of the results for Wales’s constituencies are now in, and so it’s possible to draw some conclusions about how the election has gone here. In terms of seats, Labour has done extremely well. It’s gained 27 seats out of a total of 32 seats elected here in Wales. And that has included gaining a number of seats back from the Conservatives that were lost at the last election in 2019.
For its part, the Conservatives have done very badly. They failed to win back any seats here in Wales, and so for the first time since 2001, Wales will be sending no Conservative MPs to the parliament in Westminster. The other seats were then gained by Plaid Cymru, who secured four seats, and one solitary seat was gained by the Liberal Democrats.
But the most interesting aspect of the election here in Wales was the percentage of votes gained by different parties. In terms of Labour, while it gained the vast majority of individual seats, we saw its percentage of the vote dropping, in a number of individual seats and also its overall percentage of the vote here in Wales dropped down to 37%. And it’s quite possible that this will be the first UK general election for almost a century where the Labour party in Wales gains a lower percentage of the vote than in England.
In terms of the other parties, while Reform failed to gain any seats here in Wales, we saw strong performance by that party in terms of its percentage of the vote, coming third overall, and coming a strong second in almost a dozen seats.
Finally then, while this election has been a very disappointing one for the Scottish National Party in Scotland, it’s been a very positive one for the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru. As mentioned, it gained two seats, bringing its total of MPs to four, but also saw its vote increasing across a number of seats in Wales, meaning that it can look forward to the next devolved election in 2026 with some confidence.
What happened in Wales.
Seat count and vote share mismatch? Phil Tomlinson, Professor of Industrial Strategy and Co-Director of the Centre for Governance, Regulation and Industrial Strategy, University of Bath
Labour is set to win a large parliamentary majority, although possibly on a lower share of the popular vote than when losing in 2017.
Labour’s victory therefore might not be as convincing as the parliamentary arithmetic suggests. It is more a case of being a beneficiary of the first-past-the-post electoral system, the widespread rejection of the Conservatives and the surge in support for the Reform Party (which has split the right-wing vote), rather than being swept into power on a wave of new enthusiasm.
Nevertheless, after 14 years, it looks like Labour will now get the chance to govern. They inherit the most challenging set of circumstances of any incoming government since 1974 – a stagnant economy, a cost of living crisis and a high tax burden alongside record high NHS waiting lists, crumbling infrastructure, and a much-diminished public realm.
Labour is pinning its hopes on generating higher economic growth to solve these problems – though its modest manifesto commitments have left many economists sceptical this can be achieved. There are no short-term fixes, and things may get worse before they get better.
Low turnout Pippa Catterall, Professor of History and Policy, University of Westminster
It is striking that turnout seems to be substantially down. Let’s take Newcastle upon Tyne Central. Because of boundary changes, we’re not of course comparing exactly like with like, but it’s interesting to note that in the 2019 election the turnout was 67%. Now it’s 53.8%. Every single seat declared so far has had a turnout below 60%. I think this is significant and I also think certainly in these, what are now Labour-Reform battles, we’re likely to see that trend continue.
Toby James, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of East Anglia
At 58%, turnout is the lowest it’s been since 1918, based on the results in so far. This low turnout could be explained by a perception that the election was a foregone conclusion. Disillusionment with politics and the parties may also have been a factor. Perhaps new voter ID laws have also played a role.
What the exit poll means Victoria Honeyman, Associate Professor of Politics, University of Leeds
Victoria Honeyman on the exit poll.
An unprecedented result
Stuart Wilks-Heeg, Professor of Politics, University of Liverpool
The exit poll suggests Labour’s majority will fall just short of what the party achieved in 1997 and that the projections in MRPs before the election slightly overestimated levels of Labour support.
But this result needs to be put in context. It represents a far larger number of Labour gains than in 1997. The 1997 landslide was the product of Labour clawing its way back over the course of 14 years from a calamitous electoral defeat in 1983. Keir Starmer started as Labour leader from a position just as bad as 1983, but has managed to turn that around and deliver a landslide within a single parliamentary term. This is absolutely unprecedented.
The exit poll also points to a disastrous outcome for the Conservatives. Of course, they had reasons to fear worse, but 131 seats would be even fewer than they got in 1906, previously their record defeat. It will take a lot to turn the party around and there will be bitter recriminations within the party about the scale of this defeat and the reasons for it.
There was speculation that the Lib Dems could displace the Tories as the second party. This won’t come to pass, but they will be delighted with a result that restores their parliamentary representation to where it was at its peak in 2005.
The SNP looks to be facing a collapse in its support and this will almost certainly benefit Labour. Reform has done better than predicted, based on the exit poll, and if the party does have a dozen or so MPs, it will be able to make an impression at Westminster. The Greens will be disappointed with a haul of only two seats.
The early results should confirm whether the exit poll is correct, but there is no grounds to assume that it isn’t. It’s record in predicting the outcome is excellent and there can be no doubt that the outcome is a Labour landslide.
Exit poll: predicted seats
Table with 8 columns and 1 rows.
410
131
61
13
10
4
2
19
“Extremely impressive” results for the Liberal Democrats Paula Keaveney, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Edge Hill University
This is an extremely impressive Lib Dem performance. It is not since the days of Charles Kennedy that we have seen such a total. This is partly down to targeting – to focusing on those seats which are vulnerable to a Lib Dem attack, partly based on the evidence of some significant byelection wins in the run up to this election.
The Lib Dems said that a target in this election was to become the third biggest party in Parliament again. It has achieved this, bringing huge benefits such as an automatic right to questions at PMQs.
In 2019, Lib Dem statements ahead of and during the election were far too ambitious. Ed Davey seems to have learned from this by not over stating the case
SNP faces big losses Victoria Honeyman, Associate Professor of Politics, University of Leeds
The SNP are not going to have a very good night in Scotland. Now, this will probably be largely overshadowed by the fact that the Conservatives are having a not very good night everywhere.
But if the numbers are to be believed, then the SNP is really paying the price for a number of things. They’re paying the price for the fact that they’ve obviously had a number of issues. There were some legal issues, Nicola Sturgeon has resigned as their leader, they have a new leader. But there’s also an issue about independence, where independence sits in the current debates, and also about the record of the SNP and government in Scotland.
And therefore I really think that keeping an eye on what is happening with those SNP MPs would be very important and very indicative of where the SNP sits now in Scottish national politics. But also where it sits in UK politics, because it’s been able to claim fairly successfully for the past decade that it is the voice of Scotland.
If their numbers really do crash, then would they still be able to say legitimately that they are the voice of the Scottish people? Probably not with the same kind of force that they’ve been able to do so far.
The SNP result.
‘Clear anger’ among the Conservatives Stephen Clear, Lecturer in Law, Bangor University
There’s clear anger amongst some of the big names within the Conservative Party tonight, and former justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland has now been defeated in Swindon, a seat he has previously held since 2010.
The uncharacteristic anger was clear in his passionate defeat speech. His remarks tonight on the BBC that he’s had enough of circus politics are an indication of the fury that some within the party now hold towards their colleagues. The gloves are now evidently off, and scathing thoughts are being exchanged.
He is, after all, normally a mild mannered politician. His remarks that the Conservative Party need to wake up quickly and wake up now, and how he’s fed up of personal agendas of individuals, are clear that all is not well. He attributes his comments of ill discipline and unprofessional campaigning to former Home Secretary Suella Braverman and others, and offers a scathing assessment of how his own colleagues need to get to grips with their portfolios.
What is telling is that the night is not over yet and Conservatives are already looking at what the problems were within their own campaign. Buckland notes that he felt what was missing from the Conservative campaign was a narrative for younger voters to get behind. With the Conservatives predicted to slump to 131 MPs tonight, the lowest number ever, efforts to regroup and unite the Tory party are going to be extremely challenging following this election result.
George Galloway out in Rochdale Parveen Akhtar, Senior Lecturer in Politics, History and International Relations, Aston University
Only 127 days after being elected as MP for Rochdale, George Galloway has lost the seat to Labour’s Paul Waugh. The controversial leader of the Workers Party of Great Britain, who only months earlier overturned a near 10,000 majority to win Rochdale, has lost by 1,440 votes.
After being expelled from the Labour Party in 2003 for his criticism of the Iraq War, Galloway has found success in capitalising on anger, particularly from Muslim voters, over foreign policy.
Using his campaign to criticise military action in the Middle East won Galloway the London constituency of Bethnal Green and Bow in 2005. Galvanising support around the issue of Gaza won him Bradford West in 2012. Galloway won Rochdale in February by again mobilising the Muslim vote.
Conflict in the Middle East is important in constituencies with a significant Muslim population. But while capitalising on this has provided Galloway with a winning formula, it is also a short-term one. Since leaving the Labour Party over two decades ago, Galloway has never been re-elected. Tonight means his search goes on. Authors
Avery Anapol Commissioning Editor, Politics + Society
Tim Bale Professor of Politics, Queen Mary University of London
Toby James Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of East Anglia
Victoria Honeyman Associate Professor of British Politics, University of Leeds
‘Keir Starmer take note’: UK’s green transition must start now, say experts
Fiona Harvey
Environment editor
THE GUARDIAN
Fri, 5 July 2024 Keir Starmer during a visit to Whitelee windfarm in Eaglesham, Scotland, in Augus 2021.Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA
Labour’s victory in the general election must mark the start of the UK’s transformation to a green and low-carbon economy and society, campaigners and experts have said as the scale of the election win became clear.
The Conservatives’ U-turns on the environment had been “as popular with voters as a root canal”, according to Greenpeace, as the party sank to its worst electoral defeat in modern times.
The Green party also had its strongest ever general election performance, quadrupling its representation in parliament.
This, coupled with Labour’s wide margin of victory, gives Keir Starmer, the next prime minister, a strong mandate to take bold action on net zero and nature, experts and campaigners said.
Ed Matthew, campaigns director at the E3G thinktank, said: “Dependence on oil and gas has driven the cost of living crisis. By delaying and damaging the clean energy policies that could cut energy bills, Rishi Sunak pitched the Conservatives against every UK household. It was a catastrophic political blunder.”
Starmer must fulfil his manifesto pledge, which called for the UK to become a “clean energy superpower”, said Matthew. “The landslide means Starmer now has a historic public mandate to accelerate climate action, invest in the industries of the future, and restore UK climate leadership,” he added. “The UK is back in the race to net zero.”
Mike Childs, the head of policy at Friends of the Earth, said the recent extreme weather showed how urgently the new Labour government must take action. “Given how rapidly the state of our planet is deteriorating globally, with a deadly hurricane tearing through the Caribbean as we speak, wildfires raging once more across California, farmers in the UK struggling to grow crops following an unseasonably wet winter, and nature in deep decline, it couldn’t be more imperative that the new government makes the environment a top priority,” he said.
Labour could take the lead, not just in reforming the UK’s energy system and industrial base, but also on the world stage, said Edward Davey, the UK head of the World Resources Institute. “There is a wonderful opportunity – as well as a pressing responsibility – for the new government to show its citizens, as well as the world at large, what it means to be a leader on climate, development and nature once again,” he said.
The list of tasks for Labour will include reforming planning to allow onshore windfarms in England, to boost solar farms, and to allow grid connections. More public transport, boosting the take-up of heat pumps, and home insulation will all be key. There must also be a “just transition” to help workers in fossil fuel dependent industries to move to jobs in cleaner sectors. The UK’s natural environment is also in a dire state, with sewage in rivers and on beaches, air pollution costing as many as 36,000 lives a year, and wildlife abundance plummeting.
This will require, and soon, a detailed strategy on how the UK can achieve its legally binding target of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, said Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics. “The outgoing Conservative government lost its credibility on climate change by insisting it was still committed to our statutory target while weakening the policies to meet it. [Labour] needs a clear roadmap within the next few months for how to decarbonise the power sector by 2030, a hugely ambitious target that will need a national effort,” he said.
Areeba Hamid, co-executive director at Greenpeace, called for Starmer to “seize the opportunities for economic revival and energy independence” offered by renewable energy and green jobs. Despite Labour’s landslide, she warned Starmer against complacency. “Labour’s victory could have been even more emphatic, had it not been for votes cast to the Greens and Lib Dems, who stood on much bolder climate and nature pledges and fair tax reforms,” she said. “Starmer must take note.”
Before the election, there were indications that some influential people in the top echelons of the Labour election machine had doubts over the party’s net zero promises. Pat McFadden and Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief campaign managers, were said to be instrumental in watering down the longstanding pledge to invest £28bn a year in the green economy, which was roughly halved in February over fears that the Tories would make it a target of their attacks.
The result of the election proved conclusively that “flipflopping” on green issues was a turn-off for the public, according to Craig Bennett, the chief executive of the Wildlife Trusts. “All the attempts to make culture wars out of the climate and nature crises in the last eighteen months did not help the Conservatives one little bit, and that’s a very important lesson for all parties,” he told the Guardian.
“All the opinion polls showed that the environment was very high on the public agenda, and that has not been tapped into by our political leaders. … Labour needs to learn this,” he said.
Reform UK also had a strong showing in many areas, winning relatively few seats but coming second in many constituencies. The party has an explicitly anti-net zero stance, and many of its candidates have denied the science of the climate crisis.
Matthew, of E3G, said other parties should not conclude from this that there is a strong anti-net zero tendency among the UK public, however. “Polling shows that people who vote Reform are mostly voting on immigration – that’s what really motivates them,” he said.
But he worried that the new grouping of Reform MPs could exert pressure on the Tory party, driving the “culture war” over the climate crisis.
A Labour government can now press the reset button for public services, says UNISON
Investment in communities, health and care must be at the heart of change
Commenting on the results of the general election today (Friday), UNISON general secretary Christina McAnea said:
“Goodbye and good riddance. The past 14 years of Conservative rule has been nothing short of a living nightmare.
“After an endless merry-go-round of chaos, infighting, untruths and cronyism in government, public services are in a sorry state. Fixing them and rebuilding trust in politics will be no easy task and will take time.
“Thankfully a Labour government can now press the reset button. That means investing in essential services to get communities back on their feet, ensure patients receive NHS treatment when they fall ill and the creation of a social care system that can support everyone needing help.
“For Keir Starmer to win such a historic victory and completely turn around the party’s electoral fortunes is nothing short of remarkable. The idea of a Labour government was unthinkable just four years ago, so to win by a landslide is off the scale.
“Rebuilding public services and reviving the UK must be at the heart of Labour’s mission. Now the hard work begins.”
– UNISON is the UK’s largest union with more than 1.3 million members providing public services in education, local government, the NHS, police service and energy. They are employed in the public, voluntary and private sectors.
CAPITALI$M APPROVES
FTSE Turns Bullish as UK Voters Reject Right-Wing Conservative Rule
The United Kingdom has witnessed a seismic shift in its political landscape, with the Labour Party securing a historic landslide victory over the Conservative Party in the recent general election.
Election Results and Political Landscape In a stunning turn of events, Labour, led by Sir Keir Starmer, is on course for a 170-seat majority in the House of Commons - the party's biggest win since Tony Blair's famous victory in 1997. The Conservative Party, under outgoing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, has suffered a crushing defeat, projected to secure just 144 MPs - their lowest total in the party's history.
Market Reaction to Labour's Victory The FTSE has responded with enthusiasm to the clear election outcome, demonstrating a strong bullish trend. Investors typically favor political stability and clear policy direction, both of which are expected under the new Labour government. The market's positive reaction underscores confidence in the incoming administration's ability to steer the economy towards growth and prosperity.
Labour's Economic Vision Labour's economic agenda, which resonated strongly with voters, includes increased public spending on infrastructure, education, and healthcare. These policies are aimed at stimulating economic growth, creating jobs, and boosting consumer spending. Additionally, Labour's commitment to green energy initiatives and technology innovation has particularly excited investors, with renewable energy and tech stocks seeing significant gains.
Sectoral Impact and Investment Opportunities Key sectors expected to benefit under the new government include: 1. Renewable energy and clean technology 2. Infrastructure and construction 3. Healthcare and education 4. Financial services
Investors are already positioning themselves to capitalise on these anticipated growth areas, leading to notable surges in relevant stocks.
What the charts are saying this week Technical Analysis of FTSE daily chart.
Price is currently going sideways within a tight range. However, it has also produced a clean double-bottom bullish pattern within a larger uptrend. Price has also moved above both its weekly and monthly pivots, and appears to be setting up for a push to achieve new highs. The general global markets (including the U.S.) are very stable and bullish, which obviously helps. Globally, the sentiments in the markets are optimistic.
Long-term Economic Outlook Analysts are predicting sustained growth driven by Labour's proposed policies. While challenges such as managing national debt and navigating post-Brexit trade relations remain, the overall sentiment is decidedly optimistic. The clear mandate given to Labour is seen as a catalyst for decisive action on key economic issues.
State of UK Debt and Its Relevance While the FTSE 100 shows bullish momentum in anticipation of a Labour landslide, it's important to consider the state of UK debt. As of mid-2024, the UK's national debt remains a significant concern, hovering around 100% of GDP. This high debt level could pose challenges for the incoming government, particularly in implementing expansive fiscal policies. Investors should be aware that while short-term market sentiment is positive, long-term economic stability might be influenced by how effectively the new government manages this debt. Sustainable debt management will be crucial in maintaining investor confidence and supporting continued growth in the FTSE 100.
International Perspective The UK's decisive shift towards a centre-left government bucks the trend seen in some other Western democracies. This unique position could potentially influence global investor sentiment towards the UK, presenting both opportunities and challenges in international markets.
International Context and the U.S. Influence The UK's decisive shift towards a centre-left government occurs against a backdrop of global political trends, notably the perceived slide towards authoritarianism in the United States. Some analysts suggest that British voters may have been influenced by concerns over the rightward drift in American politics, viewing Labour's victory as a pre-emptive protective measure against similar trends in the UK.
The recent turbulence in U.S. politics, characterised by challenges to democratic norms and institutions, appears to have resonated across the Atlantic. British voters, mindful of the close historical ties between the two nations, may have chosen to chart a distinctly different course. This 'transatlantic caution' could have contributed to the strong support for Labour's more progressive platform, seen as a bulwark against potential authoritarian leanings.
However, it's important to note that domestic issues, including economic concerns and dissatisfaction with the incumbent government, likely played a more direct role in shaping the election outcome. Nonetheless, the global context, particularly developments in the U.S., may have reinforced British voters' desire for a change in political direction, contributing to the market's optimistic response to Labour's victory.
As Keir Starmer prepares to become the next Prime Minister, the FTSE's bullish reaction reflects a market that is embracing change and looking forward to a new era of economic policy. While the political landscape has shifted dramatically, the financial markets appear confident in the UK's economic future.
The historic nature of this election victory, coupled with the positive market response, suggests a period of renewed optimism and potential economic resurgence for the United Kingdom. As always, investors should remain informed and agile, ready to adapt to the evolving economic landscape under the new Labour government.
