A.I.

University of Kansas study explores the transformation of educational system with the advent of artificial intelligence

Research suggests educational systems must undergo transformation to fully leverage the benefits of artificial intelligence tools

Cactus Communications

 

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A new article explores broad-based changes in educational systems for better utilizing AI tools to help students succeed in today’s world

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Credit: mikemacmarketing from Openverse Image Source Link: https://openverse.org/image/0a80051f-9e73-4478-86e1-77f62a1cbcb0?q=artificial+intelligence

The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) presents several new and exciting opportunities for improving the quality of education. While several ways of integrating AI into schooling have been explored, only a few of them consider changing the traditional school operations and educational practices.

In a recent article that was published on 23 July 2024 in the ECNU Review of Education, Professor Yong Zhao from the University of Kansas explored more radical changes that may be applied to traditional schooling to fully utilize the potential of AI technology for benefiting students. “Numerous publications have appeared, all trying to suggest, recommend, and predict the future of AI uses in education. However, most of the discussions, regardless of their scholarly quality, are primarily focused on using AI in the traditional arrangement of schools”, explains Professor Zhao. “The assumption is that everything the traditional school has operated with shall remain the same. AI tools, according to most of the advice, are to be incorporated into teaching by teachers just like previous technologies,” he notes.

By investigating a broader view of possible changes that can be applied to the current schooling system, the article not only suggested ways of utilizing the potential of AI technology better but also dealt with leveraging AI to support personalized learning. The article notes that although personalized learning has clearly demonstrated benefits, it has not been widely implemented in schools in its true sense. AI tools present a unique opportunity to implement personalized learning, customized to individual student needs harnessing their unique talents and potential.

Traditional schooling systems aim to create members of the workforce. However, AI has disrupted the job market, eliminated traditional career roles and created new roles. In the article, Professor Zhao noted that focusing and building on each child’s innate talents and unique strengths is essential for them to be successful in any career of their choice. Since any potential talent when sufficiently honed is valuable in the age of AI , he argued that educational systems must focus on students’ strengths rather than their weaknesses. Furthermore, the article suggested that the traditional curricula might need to change to make way for personalized education. Students could use AI and other resources to follow their interests and passion. This might also eliminate the requirement for age-based classes and promote learning with tools, resources, experts and peers aligned with the same interests rather than age.

Besides personalized education, AI can also be effective in facilitating project-based learning. The article noted that AI tools can help schools inculcate skills such as problem solving and independent thinking in students, transforming them into individuals with critical thinking and analytical skills. Integrating AI into the education system will also transform the role of teachers. They would become coaches and mentors who would work with the students to help them identify their strengths and potential and guide them to become the best versions of themselves. They would also need to be updated with the AI tools and help students utilize AI as a learning partner.

Traditional educational systems resist change, and now, with the advent of AI, there are several more incentives for changing how schools operate. In the article, Professor Zhao examines the question of whether and how educational systems can change in the age of AI. By considering broad-based changes to the schooling system, he suggests that the true potential of AI in learning can be unlocked. “AI is no doubt a powerful technology, but it is easy to underestimate its power. Uses in the traditional classroom to assist students and teachers in learning and teaching helps, but they also minimize the transformative power of AI,” Professor Zhao observes. “Schools could be transformed with the advancement of technology, especially generative AI. The changes should start with student-driven personalizing learning and problem-oriented pedagogy, “he concludes.

 

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Reference

Titles of original papers: Artificial Intelligence and Education: End the Grammar of Schooling

Journal: ECNU Review of Education

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/20965311241265124

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Journal

ECNU Review of Education

DOI

10.1177/20965311241265124 

Method of Research

Literature review

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Artificial Intelligence and Education: End the Grammar of Schooling

AI poses no existential threat to humanity – new study finds

Large language models like ChatGPT cannot learn independently or acquire new skills, meaning they pose no existential threat to humanity.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

University of Bath

ChatGPT and other large language models (LLMs) cannot learn independently or acquire new skills, meaning they pose no existential threat to humanity, according to new research from the University of Bath and the Technical University of Darmstadt in Germany.

The study, published today as part of the proceedings of the 62nd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL 2024) – the premier international conference in natural language processing – reveals that LLMs have a superficial ability to follow instructions and excel at proficiency in language, however, they have no potential to master new skills without explicit instruction. This means they remain inherently controllable, predictable and safe.

This means they remain inherently controllable, predictable and safe.

The research team concluded that LLMs – which are being trained on ever larger datasets – can continue to be deployed without safety concerns, though the technology can still be misused.

With growth, these models are likely to generate more sophisticated language and become better at following explicit and detailed prompts, but they are highly unlikely to gain complex reasoning skills.

“The prevailing narrative that this type of AI is a threat to humanity prevents the widespread adoption and development of these technologies, and also diverts attention from the genuine issues that require our focus,” said Dr Harish Tayyar Madabushi, computer scientist at the University of Bath and co-author of the new study on the ‘emergent abilities’ of LLMs.

The collaborative research team, led by Professor Iryna Gurevych at the Technical University of Darmstadt in Germany, ran experiments to test the ability of LLMs to complete tasks that models have never come across before – the so-called emergent abilities.

As an illustration, LLMs can answer questions about social situations without ever having been explicitly trained or programmed to do so. While previous research suggested this was a product of models ‘knowing’ about social situations, the researchers showed that it was in fact the result of models using a well-known ability of LLMs to complete tasks based on a few examples presented to them, known as `in-context learning’ (ICL).

Through thousands of experiments, the team demonstrated that a combination of LLMs ability to follow instructions (ICL), memory and linguistic proficiency can account for both the capabilities and limitations exhibited by LLMs.

Dr Tayyar Madabushi said: “The fear has been that as models get bigger and bigger, they will be able to solve new problems that we cannot currently predict, which poses the threat that these larger models might acquire hazardous abilities including reasoning and planning.

“This has triggered a lot of discussion – for instance, at the AI Safety Summit last year at Bletchley Park, for which we were asked for comment – but our study shows that the fear that a model will go away and do something completely unexpected, innovative and potentially dangerous is not valid.

“Concerns over the existential threat posed by LLMs are not restricted to non-experts and have been expressed by some of the top AI researchers across the world."

However, Dr Tayyar Madabushi maintains this fear is unfounded as the researchers' tests clearly demonstrated the absence of emergent complex reasoning abilities in LLMs.

“While it's important to address the existing potential for the misuse of AI, such as the creation of fake news and the heightened risk of fraud, it would be premature to enact regulations based on perceived existential threats,” he said.

“Importantly, what this means for end users is that relying on LLMs to interpret and perform complex tasks which require complex reasoning without explicit instruction is likely to be a mistake. Instead, users are likely to benefit from explicitly specifying what they require models to do and providing examples where possible for all but the simplest of tasks.”

Professor Gurevych added: "… our results do not mean that AI is not a threat at all. Rather, we show that the purported emergence of complex thinking skills associated with specific threats is not supported by evidence and that we can control the learning process of LLMs very well after all. Future research should therefore focus on other risks posed by the models, such as their potential to be used to generate fake news."

ENDS.

Video explainer Dr Madabushi describes his findings: https://tinyurl.com/vvhx38kp

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DOI

10.48550/arXiv.2309.01809 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Are Emergent Abilities in Large Language Models just In-Context Learning?

Article Publication Date

12-Aug-2024

 

Agri waste-based surfactant for industrial synthesis

Indian Institute of Science (IISc)

 

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From left to right: Susanta Hazra (corresponding author), Pritesh Keshari (first author), Rajan Yadav (co-author), Priya Mata (co-author).

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Credit: Deepanshu Pathak

Industries and chemical labs synthesise a wide variety of organic molecules every day. Most of these chemical reactions happen in the liquid phase to allow the substrates to interact easily. However, many substrates and catalysts are sensitive to water and undergo side reactions, yielding unwanted products. This forces synthetic chemists to use toxic organic solvents. More than 80% of the waste generated in chemical processes is derived from such solvents – and not all of it is disposed of properly.

A team of researchers from the Department of Inorganic and Physical Chemistry (IPC), Indian Institute of Science (IISc) has now come up with a solution. They have synthesised a surfactant from agricultural waste to help catalyse industrially relevant reactions in water instead of organic solvents, through a process called micellar catalysis. The study was published in ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering. 

The surfactant they designed, called CNSL-1000-M, is derived from cashew nut shell liquid (CNSL), an agricultural waste product generated during the roasting of cashews to separate the kernels. “Since we were aiming for the replacement of organic solvents, we felt that the substitute must be bio-based,” explains Pritesh Keshari, first author and PhD student at IPC. India is the second largest producer of cashew nuts in the world, hence the raw material is easy and inexpensive to source.

Surfactants are molecules that have a water-loving (hydrophilic) as well as a water-repelling (hydrophobic) component. The researchers combined cardanol, a hydrophobic compound found in CNSL, with m-PEG, a hydrophilic polymer, to create their surfactant. When added to water, the surfactant molecules rapidly self-assemble to form small, spherical structures called micelles. The hydrophobic parts of the surfactant turn inwards, away from the water outside, forming a water-free pocket. Substrates and catalysts like nickel complexes, which are normally sensitive to water, can move inside these micelle pockets and remain protected.

“Suppose you dip a football in a pond or sea. As long as the football doesn’t leak, it remains floating with no water entering inside the ball,” explains Susanta Hazra, Assistant Professor at IPC and corresponding author of the study. “We use the same analogy for micellar catalysis. When the substrate goes inside the micelle, it separates itself and the reaction product from the bulk water – and that’s where the chemistry happens.” This micellar catalysis mimics biological systems – many natural enzymes have a hydrophobic pocket much like the one in micelles.

The team used their surfactant to catalyse the formation of carbon-phosphorus bonds, an industrially important step used to make many compounds including the anticancer agent Brigatinib and organic LEDs. CNSL-1000-M led to 80% higher product yields in water compared to reactions carried out in organic solvents. Compared to existing surfactants, the new surfactant also gave 30% higher yields for reactions carried out in water. Using the surfactant can also help replace expensive catalysts like palladium with inexpensive nickel complexes, and facilitate reactions at lower temperatures.

The researchers are keen to work with industries to enable the transition from using toxic organic solvents to aqueous micellar technology as the sustainable and green alternative. “We hope to study micellar chemistry in more detail and use our technology at the industrial level,” says Hazra. “Rather than making new surfactants for various types of reactions, our target is to use the same surfactant as a general reaction medium for all possible reactions and chemical transformations, as that is better for sustainability.”

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Journal

ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering

DOI

10.1021/acssuschemeng.4c03527 

Article Title

Micelles Enabled Nickel-Catalyzed P-Arylation of Aromatic Phosphine Oxide in Water Under Mild Conditions

 

Empowering women – a key to both sustainable energy and gender justice

Chalmers University of Technology

 

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Kavya Michael - Researcher at Chalmers University of Technology

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Credit: Chalmers University of Technology | Geo Philip Muppathiyil

Involving women in implementing solar energy technologies in developing countries not only has great climate impact. A new study published in Nature Energy and carried out by researchers from Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden, shows that empowering women through energy care work can change unjust, gendered norms and long-lived injustices.

Unlike going from fossil to renewable fuels within the transport sector, transitioning to renewable energy for electricity production is often done at the local level due to decentralised energy providers. Around the world, there are community-led programmes that provide solar, wind and hydro power, as alternative, greener energy sources. Whilst these programmes have the potential to help improve climate impact, they run the risk of maintaining deep-rooted gender imbalances through a lack of people-centred research and missing out the important, but often undervalued work of women within a community. The new study by Chalmers researchers, analyses what is needed to successfully implement a renewable energy transition programme and at the same time tackle systemic gender injustice.

“The climate crisis has put us in a position to stop and look back on our society, the rampant inequalities and the development planning being driven by over-consumption. As we chart a way out, it is important to emphasise that sustainability and justice go hand in hand. It is important to think of energy transitions as embracing social, economic and environmental aspects and here gender equality is a key”, says Kavya Michael, researcher at Chalmers University of Technology and lead author of the paper.

Technical training and female empowerment  

In the recently published study “A conceptual analysis of gendered energy care work and epistemic injustice through a case study of Zanzibar’s Solar Mamas”, Kavya Michael spent time observing and interviewing women in a project led by Barefoot College International, in Zanzibar, Tanzania. The Solar Mamas-project provided women at the heart of the community with technical training to become energy providers in the transition to solar energy, giving them the skills and knowledge to install and maintain solar panels and bringing electric light to previously inaccessible spaces. This meant that businesses within the community could stay open after dark and women started occupying public spaces more in the evenings as there was light.

Through the training the women became ‘community caregivers’, and this meant that their work, both in providing solar panels and light to the community, and the work they continued to do within the household was valued and respected more.

“Women in Zanzibar were traditionally responsible for domestic energy provisioning such as collecting firewood or buying kerosene, but these were never jobs that were considered or valued. By placing a value on the roles that were previously taken for granted by the female members of the group, their role in society was advanced”, explains Michael.  

The training also provided the women with a conducive environment to facilitate empowerment and change.

“What is unique about the programme at Barefoot Zanzibar is that, as well as the technical training, there was a module called ENRICHE which is part of the Solar Mamas training curriculum where they are provided with a safe space to reflect on unjust gendered norms and social practices. The women are given education about their rights, reproductive health and financial literacy, among other things. This module plays a huge role in ‘unlearning’ the systemic injustices that are prevalent in their societies”, says Michael. 

Support from all levels key for success

The study shows that there is potential for locally led energy transitions to break established gender norms and successfully combine a move to renewable energy, with a gender-just society. The findings illustrate the need for energy transitions research, policy and practice to be deeply informed by lived experiences, diverse practices of care within the energy webs and valuing of multiple voices.

“I believe lessons from the Zanzibar case can give valuable insights in driving forward gender-just, locally led sustainable transitions in other settings. However, these initiatives are often not backed up by the state and hence fail to make a significant impact. In this study, we see change actually happening because the whole process of the programme, from community meetings, to recruitments, to training and follow-ups are done together with the state. Whenever there is a bottleneck, for example when male partners prevented their wives from joining the training after they were selected, the state intervenes. The truly unique part of this study, which could be recreated elsewhere, is the empowerment of women, in combination with the change of men and the whole community, working together towards energy transitions. Zanzibar is a very patriarchal space, if it can work in Zanzibar, then there is the potential for it to work in many other places as well”, concludes Michael.

A new concept focusing on energy and care

The theoretical framework used to understand this case study is unique. Using four key themes – care, knowledge, power and energy – Michael and the team from Chalmers, created a list of ‘codes’ from the interviews they conducted with the Solar Mamas, Barefoot College Staff and Government representatives. This coded framework allowed the researchers to analyse the data from the qualitative research and understand the dynamics of the project.

The findings from the study place a great value on the concept of care* and the importance in valuing this fully within a community in the transition to renewable energy. An innovative concept of gendered energy care work is described in the paper, which puts a value on the role of women in providing energy within a community to help chart a way out of the climate crisis.

“Energy and care are deeply connected in two key ways, energy can either enable or hinder care work, and care work influences energy demands. For a just energy transition that supports and fairly distributes care, it's crucial to include care in energy transition analyses,” says Kavya Michael.

This innovative approach using a lens of energy and care, helps to understand and value gendered energy care work, specifically women’s previously invisible work, as involving skilled labour in everyday life.

More about the study’s definition of care*:

In this paper Kavya Michael and Helene Ahlborg draw on the concept of care as defined by Fisher and Tronto as an activity encompassing everything we do to maintain, continue, and repair our world to live in it as well as possible. This world includes our bodies, ourselves, and our environment, all of which we aim to weave into a complex, life-sustaining web. Building on this definition, the researchers introduce the concept of ‘energy care work’, referring to the daily practices at household and community levels that involve provisioning, sustaining, maintaining, repairing, and ensuring the availability of energy carriers and services for everyday life. This perspective on energy care work not only focuses on caring for people but also on the infrastructures and technologies, and their environmental impacts. It is based on the lived experiences of dependence and relationships within energy networks, recognising the intricate connections between individuals, energy systems, and the ecosystems that support their daily activities.

More about Barefoot College International:

Initiated in 1997 by Barefoot College in Rajasthan, India, the Solar Mamas programme now spans more than 90 countries worldwide.

The project’s mission is to make vocational and educational opportunities accessible to women and girls from the most marginalised communities around the world. The organisation believes that providing these opportunities to women is the solution to ensuring long term climate, economic and social resilience for rural communities globally.

More about the research:

The article “A conceptual analysis of gendered energy care work and epistemic injustice through a case study of Zanzibar’s Solar Mamas” is published in Nature Energy.

The article is written by Kavya Michael and Helene Ahlborg, and they are both active at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden.

This study has been funded by the Swedish Energy Agency and is conducted under a larger project ‘Empowering all: gender in policy and implementation for achieving transitions to sustainable energy’ under the User-Centred Energy Systems (UsersTCP), part of the IEA Technology Collaboration Programme, task on Gender and Energy.

For more information, please contact:

Kavya Michael, Researcher, Environmental Systems Analysis, Department of Technology Management and Economics, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden kavyami@chalmers.se +46 31 772 20 22

The researcher speaks English and may be available for live and pre-recorded interviews. At Chalmers, we have podcasting studios and film equipment on site and can assist requests for TV, radio, or podcast interviews.

Solar Mamas working on solar panels at Barefoot College Zanzibar

Credit

Chalmers University of Technology | Barefoot College Zanzibar | Olga Timokhin

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Journal

Nature Energy

DOI

10.1038/s41560-024-01539-1 

Method of Research

Observational study

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

A conceptual analysis of gendered energy care work and epistemic injustice through a case study of Zanzibar’s Solar Mamas

 

New interpretation of runic inscription reveals pricing in Viking age

Stockholm University

 

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Old ink drawing of the Forsa Ring with the runic inscription.

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Credit: Lars Kennerstedt/the Swedish National Heritage Board

A new interpretation of the runic inscription on the Forsa Ring (Forsaringen in Swedish), provides fresh insights into the Viking Age monetary system and represents the oldest documented value record in Scandinavia. The inscription describes how the Vikings handled fines in a flexible and practical manner. This is highlighted in research from the Department of Economic History and International Relations at Stockholm University, recently published in the Scandinavian Economic History Review.

“The Forsaringen inscription "uksa … auk aura tua" was previously interpreted to mean that fines had to be paid with both an ox and two ore of silver. This would imply that the guilty party had to pay with two different types of goods, which would have been both impractical and time-consuming,“ says Rodney Edvinsson, Professor of Economic History at Stockholm University, who conducted the study.

The Forsa Ring is an iron ring from Hälsingland, dated to the 9th or 10th century. The runic inscription on the ring describes fines for a specific offense, where payment was to be made in the form of oxen and silver. The ring is believed to have been used as a door handle and is currently the oldest known preserved legal text in Scandinavia. By changing the translation of the word "auk" from the previous interpretation "and" to the new interpretation "also," the meaning changes so that fines could be paid either with an ox or with two ore of silver. An ore was equivalent to about 25 grams of silver.

“This indicates a much more flexible system, where both oxen and silver could be used as units of payment. If a person had easier access to oxen than to silver, they could pay their fines with an ox. Conversely, if someone had silver but no oxen, they could pay with two ore of silver,“ says Rodney Edvinsson.

The new interpretation shows that the Vikings had a system where both oxen and silver served as units of payment. This system allowed for multiple types of units of accounts to be used concurrently, reducing transaction complexity and making it easier for people to meet their financial obligations. The new interpretation also aligns better with how the system functioned later according to later regional laws and is, according to Rodney Edvinsson, significant for our understanding of both Scandinavian and European monetary history.

“As an economic historian, I particularly look for historical data to be economically logical, that is, to fit into other contemporary or historical economic systems. The valuation of an ox at two ore, or 50 grams of silver, in 10th-century Sweden resembles contemporary valuations in other parts of Europe, indicating a high degree of integration and exchange between different economies,“ says Rodney Edvinsson.

He has previously contributed to developing a historical consumer price index extending back to the 13th century, but this new interpretation provides insights into price levels even earlier in history.

“The price level during the Viking Age in silver was much lower than in the early 14th century and late 16th century, but approximately at the same level as in the late 15th century and the 12th century, when there was a silver shortage,“ says Rodney Edvinsson.

The study highlights the importance of using modern economic theories to interpret historical sources. By combining economic theory with archaeological and historical findings, new opportunities for interdisciplinary research and a deeper understanding of early economic systems are opened up.

The Forsa Ring

Credit

Ulrika Eriksson/Svenska Kyrkan

What Did Things Cost During the Viking Age?

According to the new interpretation, an ox would cost 2 öre of silver, about 50 grams of silver, during the Viking Age. This corresponds to roughly 100,000 Swedish kronor today, if compared to the value of an hour's work. The Forsa Ring’s fine amount was therefore quite high. One öre was likely equivalent to about nine Arabic dirhams, a currency that circulated in large quantities among the Vikings. A common price for a thrall was 12 öre of silver, or approximately 600,000 Swedish kronor today. The wergild for a free man, i.e., the fine paid to the family of the murdered to avoid blood revenge, was much higher, around 5 kilos of silver, which is about 10 million Swedish kronor today. The significant difference in value between a thrall and a free man reflects the power dynamics between free individuals and thralls in a slave society.

Read the publication: “Applying a transaction cost perspective to decode Viking Scandinavia's earliest recorded value relation: insights from the Forsaringen’s runic inscription” in the Scandinavian Economic History Review.

The relevant inscription of the Forsa Ring translated to modern English:
One ox and [also/or] two öre of silver to the staff for the restoration of a sanctuary in a valid state for the first time; two oxen and [also/or] four öre of silver for the second time; but for the third time four oxen and eight öre of silver.

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Journal

Scandinavian Economic History Review

DOI

10.1080/03585522.2024.2378465 

Method of Research

Content analysis

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Applying a transaction cost perspective to decode viking Scandinavia's earliest recorded value relation: insights from the forsa ring’s runic inscription

 

Poverty premium on energy costs impacts poorer households

University of Edinburgh

Poverty premium on energy costs impacts poorer households

People living in poorer households are more likely to face higher energy costs than those who do not, a study shows.

Those in low income households are more likely to pay more for their basic energy tariff and also incur higher costs per unit of energy compared with more affluent households, research suggests.

The study found people can incur higher premiums through multiple pathways – including the use of non-standard billing methods such as prepayment meters.

Other factors which increased the likelihood of higher premiums include the presence of children or unemployed adults in a household and living in rented accommodation, an apartment or a flat.  

On average, poor households paid between 10 to 20 per cent more per unit than higher income households for both gas and electricity, between 2011 and 2019, the research found.

Researchers say the findings shed light on the average premiums incurred by poor households, and could aid targeted policy interventions.

A team at the University of Edinburgh applied statistical methods to two large datasets, to measure how much people from poorer households pay for their gas and electricity use, and the drivers that lead to higher costs.

Researchers merged two sets of UK household data with figures from the UK Government’s National Energy Efficiency Data-Framework (NEED).

They combined the data with a statistical theory in a new approach to assessing the energy premiums faced by those in poorer households.

They found that household poverty status significantly affected the likelihood and intensity of gas and electricity premiums. This was the case even when other factors such as property type, payment method, geographical location, gender and age were taken into account.

Researchers say their method, which is based on detailed household-level data to compare energy expenditure per unit between households with different incomes, is an accurate approach to measuring how poverty can influence energy costs.

Fiona Rasanga, of the University of Edinburgh Business School, a PhD student who led the study, said: “The findings shed light on how the poverty premium – or the idea that the poor pay more for essential goods and services – directly impacts the economic wellbeing of poor households. Policymakers could use the proposed measurement approach to keep track of the poverty premium and its economic impact on households.”

The study is published in the Journal Energy Economics (10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107726). The research was supported by the ESRC and the Smart Data Foundry - an independent collaboration between governments and regulators, the financial services, industry and academia.

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Journal

Energy Economics

DOI

10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107726 

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Measuring the energy poverty premium in Great Britain and identifying its main drivers based on longitudinal household survey data

 

Expansion of agricultural land threatens climate and biodiversity

University of Basel

By 2030, global cultivation areas are expected to expand by 3.6 percent, increasing global agricultural production by two percent. This projection comes from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

An interdisciplinary research team led by Dr. Florian Zabel and Prof. Dr. Ruth Delzeit from the Department of Environmental Sciences at the University of Basel has investigated which areas worldwide are most likely to be affected by future agricultural expansion. The study's findings were published in the journal Nature Sustainability.

Higher production, more greenhouse gases

The researchers developed a land-use model that identifies the most profitable areas worldwide for future agricultural expansion, taking into account both socio-economic and agro-ecological criteria. They then assessed the economic and ecological impacts of land-use changes in these areas. According to the study, new agricultural areas are expected to emerge mainly in the tropics, where there is still significant potential to increase agricultural production despite climate change.

However, since cropland stores much less carbon than the original vegetation, the study estimates that land-use changes would emit about 17 gigatons of CO2 in the long term. This is almost half of the current annual global CO2 emissions. In the areas affected by land-use changes, biodiversity would also decline by 26 percent. "The expansion of agricultural land would therefore be a concerning development, particularly for global climate protection and efforts to preserve biodiversity," says co-lead researcher Florian Zabel.

Conservation also makes economic sense

In light of recent political efforts to protect nature, forests, and biodiversity globally, the researchers also evaluated the impact of various scenarios of global conservation policies and their consequences. It became clear that conservation measures can also have unintended side effects: Preventing the expansion of agricultural land into forests, wetlands, and existing protected areas by law would shift agricultural expansion mainly to grasslands. This could have a negative effect on the biodiversity of these areas, as grasslands generally have higher diversity than other lands.

On the other hand, sticking to conservation efforts can also make economic sense. “Contrary to expectations, the preservation of forests, wetlands, and existing protected areas has little impact on the gross domestic product of the respective regions. Global agricultural production is also only slightly reduced as a result. In return, the greenhouse gas emissions caused by expansion are significantly reduced," says lead author Julia Schneider of Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München. This finding is particularly relevant in the context of global food security: it shows that the conflicts between the provision of agricultural goods and environmental protection can be mitigated.

Improve planning of protected areas

The study makes a valuable contribution to answering the question of which areas are particularly worth protecting. In the Kunming-Montreal Biodiversity Convention, the international community has set a goal to protect 30 percent of the global land surface by 2030.

The current study identifies regions that are particularly at risk in the future and highlights the potential impacts of agricultural expansion on the economy and the environment. "This enables the planning of protected areas in such a way that they achieve the broadest possible impact on as many objectives as possible, such as climate and biodiversity protection, while also considering economic interests," says Florian Zabel.

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Journal

Nature Sustainability

DOI

10.1038/s41893-024-01410-x 

Article Title

Effects of profit-driven cropland expansion and conservation policies

Article Publication Date

13-Aug-2024

 

Study reveals urban trees suffer more from heat waves and drought than their rural counterparts

The findings have implications for urban forestry and heat island management efforts.

Advanced Science Research Center, GC/CUNY

 

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Researchers examined core samples from trees in urban areas and found they are more adversely affected by climate stress than their rural counterparts with less exposure to high levels of carbon emissions. 

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Credit: Anthony Cak

NEW YORK, August 13, 2024 — A recently published study in Ecological Applications details how trees in New York City and Boston are more negatively impacted by heat waves and drought than trees of the same species in nearby rural forests. The finding, made by researchers at the Advanced Science Research Center at the CUNY Graduate Center (CUNY ASRC), highlights the challenges urban trees face in the context of climate change and underscores the importance of tailored urban forestry management as a tool for protecting tree species and reducing urban heat islands.

The research is particularly timely, given the record-breaking increase in global mean temperatures and the ongoing hottest summer on record. As cities continue to grapple with the impacts of climate change, this study provides critical insights into how urban trees' health and the ecosystem services they offer might be jeopardized.

Key Findings:

• Urban trees in NYC and Boston experience greater negative impacts from heat waves and drought compared to rural trees.
• Urban trees' growth rates and carbon storage capabilities are significantly reduced during extreme weather conditions.
• The authors suspect that the harsh urban environment, characterized by hotter, drier conditions and higher pollution levels, exacerbates the vulnerability of urban trees to climate stress.

For their study, researchers used tree cores from urban and rural forests to reconstruct historical growth rates and then compared these with climate data. The aim was to determine if urban trees are more adversely affected by climate stress than their rural counterparts. The study found that urban trees suffer more during periods of heat waves and drought, raising concerns about their long-term health and ability to provide crucial ecosystem services.

“Trees are integral to urban sustainability and climate resiliency strategies, offering benefits such as temperature reduction, stormwater management, recreational spaces, biodiversity support, and improved human health,” said the study’s principal investigator Andrew Reinmann, a professor with the CUNY ASRC’s Environmental Science Initiative and Hunter College’s Department of Geography and Environmental Science. “Understanding why urban trees are more sensitive to climate stress is the next step so that urban planners, forest managers, community groups, and policymakers can develop effective urban forestry plans.”

Such plans might include designing new management protocols that maximize the size of tree planting pits and selecting tree species better suited to urban conditions.

This study received support from The City University of New York (CUNY), the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Services Northern Research Station, Barnard College Summer Research Institute, USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture and the NSF Research Experience for Undergraduates program.

 

About the Advanced Science Research Center at the CUNY Graduate Center
The Advanced Science Research Center at the CUNY Graduate Center (CUNY ASRC) is a world-leading center of scientific excellence that elevates STEM inquiry and education at CUNY and beyond. The CUNY ASRC’s research initiatives span five distinctive, but broadly interconnected disciplines: nanoscience, photonics, neuroscience, structural biology, and environmental sciences. The center promotes a collaborative, interdisciplinary research culture where renowned and emerging scientists advance their discoveries using state-of-the-art equipment and cutting-edge core facilities.

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Journal

Ecological Applications

DOI

10.1002/eap.2970 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Urbanization exacerbates climate sensitivity of eastern United States broadleaf trees