Global battery race: 800% surge in production, 90% drop in price, know the leaders and laggards

Multi-billion quest for the best battery technology is key to a renewable future

---

Published:  September 14, 2024 07:06Jay Hilotin, Senior Assistant Editor

---

Success in the global battery race, currently led by China, could define the world’s energy future and reshape transportation for the next decade—if not longer.Image Credit: Shutterstock

The future of electric vehicles (EVs) and VTOL air taxis hinges on one thing: batteries.

It's a battle fought on both economic and technical fronts, with the greatest challenge being to achieve the highest energy density, fastest charging, longest cycle life, best safety features, and lowest cost.

-ADVERTISEMENT-

Ads by 

Amid a ferocious battery price war, this high-stakes race is a complex, decades-long balancing act, involving multiple technologies and global players. 

800 %

jump in global battery production from 2022 to 2027 (Source: Bloomberg)

China’s dominance

​​Currently, six of the top 10 battery manufacturing companies are headquartered in China, according to a BloombergNEF report.

The race for battery supremacy is not limited to a single region. Companies and governments around the world are investing heavily in battery research and development. Besides China, the United States, Japan, and South Korea are among the leading players in this field.

Yet, in terms of production capacity, China’s dominance based on current technologies (lithium-ion, lithium iron phosphate, nickel metal hydride) will remain unassailable beyond 2030, the report added.

Global competition

S battery production capacity is projected to grow 10x in 5 years from 2022.

By 2027, when the world battery production jumps to 8,945 gigawatt hours (GWh), from 1,163 GWh in 2022 — a nearly 800-per cent jump — Bloomberg expects China to further cement its dominance.

8,945 GWh

World battery production by 2027 (Source: Bloomberg)

The mainland will account for 69 per cent (or 6,197 GWh) of the global battery production, by 2027.

And despite the expected 10x growth of the US battery production capacity by then, America (with 908 GWh battery production capacity expected by 2027) it will account for only up 10 per cent of the global production.

Image Credit: Jay Hilotin | Gulf News

Germany, the erstwhile automotive powerhouse, will get just 6 per cent at 502 GWh. Hungary (195 GWh), Sweden (135 GWh) and Poland (112 GWh) will each account for between 1 to 2 per cent; the rest of the world will share the crumbs.

How did this come about?

China’s edge is due in part to its policy that encourages domestic ultra-competition among producers. A big part of it is policy push – which has led to its dominance in cathode, anode, and refined battery materials production.

By 2030, China’s leadership in batteries (thanks to CATL and BYD, with a combined market cap of $214 billion as of Friday, September 13, 2024), with nearly 70 per cent of the global production, will remain, according to a Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimate.

Energy storage is a major game-changer, right alongside AI, blockchain, DNA sequencing, and robotics. But remember, market forces can change everything, just like they did with phones and electricity.

The competition in the battery market is fierce. The US government recently reported that EV battery prices have dropped by a whopping 90 per cent in just 15 years.

Has complacency over this strategic industry, in the West as a whole, slowly but surely eroded its position, leaving it vulnerable to the relentless rise of global competitors?

Government support

Sheer market forces don't hack it anymore. Policy initiatives play a crucial role in driving the renewable lifestyle through research funding, incentives.

Why? With each new technology, new rules and standards are needed.

For EVs, in order to reduce "range anxiety", it would entail faster charging stations and denser charging networks. And just as the invention of the automobile, particularly Karl Benz's 1886 motor car, marked the beginning of ICE (internal combustion engine) technology overtaking horse-drawn carriages, better batteries are inevitably disrupting ICE in out time.

MAJOR BATTERY HURDLES TODAY

Energy density: High energy density allows EV batteries to store more energy in less space, enabling vehicles to travel further on a single charge.

However, this also raises safety concerns, as high-density batteries – particularly lithium-ion batteries – can become volatile when they malfunction. With increased use, fire risks associated with Li-ion also draw more attention.

Safety: Li-ion batteries typically use liquid electrolytes, which can be flammable. Despite modern safety features, these come at the cost of increased weight or size.

Alternatives: Alternatives such as lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4 or LFP), and solid-state batteries promise improved safety with non-flammable electrolytes. Research is exploring new battery chemistries like lithium-sulfur, solid-state batteries, graphene which offer the potential for greater safety and higher energy density.

Battery chemistry

Sodium-ion and lithium sulfur batteries hold some promise. Their emergence could unlock the door to more affordable electric vehicles while reducing reliance on scarce, expensive and unsustainably mined raw materials.

Visitors are pictured at the booth of Chinese car maker BYD presented at the International Motor Show (IAA) at the fairgrounds in Munich, southern Germany, on September 5, 2023. Germany's IAA MOBILITY auto show, one of the world's largest, will be open for the public from September 5 to 10, 2023 and showcase all car-related topics. (Photo by CHRISTOF STACHE / AFP)Image Credit: AFP

A number of startups are betting on widely available raw materials — sodium chloride and sulfur — to bring down battery costs. But neither is likely to make it into volume production before 2025. Graphene, for its part, is in early-stage development.

Experts like Shirley Meng, chief scientist at the US Argonne National Laboratory's Collaborative Center for Energy Storage Science, say diversifying battery materials is critical "to keep the cost low and the supply secure."

Key elements of each chemistry

Sodium-ion batteries

Sodium ion batteries do not need lithium, cobalt or nickel — the three most expensive battery ingredients — but need more research and testing to increase their energy density.

• Replaces: Lithium
• Supply: Abundant
• Cost: Extremely low
• Environmental Impact: Benign
• Recyclability: High
• Typical Anode Material: Hard carbon
• Upside: High stability, less flammable than lithium ion, easy to refine, uses same manufacturing equipment as lithium ion
• Downside: Low energy density, low cycle life, heavier than lithium ion

Downside: Low energy density, low cycle life, heavier than lithium ion

Lithium sulfur batteries

Lithium sulfur batteries still rely on lithium in smaller quantities, but do not need nickel or cobalt. Sulfur has huge potential because of its capacity to hold a lot of energy, but startups have to overcome the fact that it is also highly corrosive.

• Replaces: Nickel, cobalt
• Supply: Abundant
• Cost: Extremely low
• Environmental Impact: Lower than cells that use nickel and cobalt, but lithium still not sustainably mined and refined
• Recyclability: High
• Typical Anode Material: Lithium metal
• Upside: High energy density, long range, lighter weight than lithium ion, potential for use in electric aircraft
• Downside: Limited cycle life, potential energy loss, electrode corrosion.

Western companies: Too little, too late

The record of Western companies in energy storage is a mixed one. 

In the US, at least $138 billion are being invested into new battery and EV manufacturing facilities since the beginning of 2022. Almost $10 billion of that has gone into companies founded by ex-Tesla employees, according to a Fastmarkets report.

This indicates a strong desire in the US to scaling up battery manufacturing, and its overall role in the global clean energy space.

The EU is pushing major initiatives aimed at fostering innovation, sustainability, and global competitiveness in batteries. One key effort is the Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda (SRIA), part of the BATT4EU Partnership, which outlines critical areas for development in the battery sector.

The agenda focuses on creating a "circular, competitive battery value chain", ensuring the affordability of batteries, reducing reliance on imported raw materials, and promoting safe and sustainable designs​.

For example, in 2023, the European Commission announced a €3-billion ($3.32 billion) investment through the Innovation Fund to boost battery manufacturing, especially targeting cell production to help position Europe as a leader in next-generation battery technologies, supporting both EVs and battiers.

•  China's BYD signs deal to open $1 billion electric car plant in Turkey
•  Battery prices hit a cliff: CATL, BYD, Panasonic, Samsung lead as competition heats up

These funds complement existing EU projects like Horizon Europe, aimed at long-term research and innovation in the battery field​.

But is it a case of too little, too late?

Could the factory closures at VW herald more things to come?

Amid the intense competition, Chinese manufacturers like CATL (market cap: $115 billion) and BYD ($99.86 billion) are expanding aggressively. Their scale, experience give them the edge while others are scaling back.

In Canada, amid Toronto's 100-percent tariff wall on Chinese-made EVs, Umicore postponed a C$2.8 billion cathode plant. In contrast, CATL reported increased profits in the second quarter of 2024.

Takeaways:

• The development of advanced battery technology is essential for the widespread adoption of EV and eVTOL planes.
• As universities and manufacturers continue to push the boundaries of battery performance, we can expect to see even more impressive electric vehicles in the future.
• Countries and companies that lead in battery innovation will keep their edge. Advancements in battery technology will be a key driver for the future of the planet.
• Strategic policies that foster innovation, drive down costs, and secure supply chains will be key to accelerating the battery revolution.
•  The race for dominance in battery technology will undeniably shape the future of the electric vehicle industry, influencing its trajectory for decades to come.

 

TikTok Faces Crucial Court Hearing That Could Decide Fate in US

By Reuters

September 13, 2024

WASHINGTON—TikTok and parent company ByteDance face a key court hearing on Monday in a legal battle seeking to block a law that could ban the app used by 170 million Americans as soon as Jan. 19.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia will hold oral arguments on the legal challenge, putting the fate of Chinese-owned TikTok in the middle of the final weeks of the 2024 presidential election.

Both Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are active on TikTok seeking to court younger voters.

TikTok and ByteDance argue the law is unconstitutional and violates Americans’ free speech rights.

Driven by worries among U.S. lawmakers that the Chinese communist regime could access data on Americans or spy on them with the app, the measure was passed overwhelmingly in the U.S. Congress in April just weeks after being introduced.

ByteDance has said a divestiture is “not possible technologically, commercially, or legally” and without a court ruling will lead to an unprecedented ban on Jan. 19. Circuit Judges Sri Srinivasan, Neomi Rao, and Douglas Ginsburg will consider the legal challenges brought by TikTok and users.

TikTok and the Justice Department have asked for a ruling by Dec. 6, which could allow the U.S. Supreme Court to take up the decision before any ban takes effect.

President Joe Biden signed the law in April, giving ByteDance until Jan. 19 to sell TikTok or face a ban, but he could extend the deadline by three months if he certifies ByteDance is making progress toward a sale.

The White House and other advocates of the law said the measure is a challenge to Chinese-based ownership of the app, and not a move to eliminate TikTok.

The White House says it wants to see Chinese-based ownership ended on national security grounds, but not a ban on TikTok.

Biden, Starmer put off Ukraine missiles decision after Putin's warning

Leaders of UK and US will now discuss plan at UN General Assembly in New York "with a wider group of individuals" as Kiev seeks approval to use Western long-range missiles deeper inside Russia.


Biden meets with Starmer at the White House in Washington,DC on September 13, 2024. / Photo: Reuters


British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Joe Biden have delayed a decision to let Ukraine fire long-range Western-supplied missiles into Russia, a plan that sparked dire threats from Moscow of a war with NATO.

Starmer told reporters at the White House on Friday that he had a "wide-ranging discussion about strategy" with Biden but that it "wasn't a meeting about a particular capability."

Before the meeting officials had said Starmer would press Biden to back his plan to send British Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine to hit deeper inside Russia as allies become increasingly concerned about the battlefield situation.

But the Labour leader indicated that he and Biden would now discuss the plan at the UN General Assembly in New York the week after next "with a wider group of individuals."

As they met with their teams across a long table in the White House, backed by US and British flags, Biden played down a warning by Russian President Vladimir Putin that allowing Ukraine to fire the weapons would mean the West was "at war" with Russia.

"I don't think much about Vladimir Putin," Biden told reporters when asked about the comments. Biden added, Putin will not prevail in the war with Ukraine.

Ukraine and many of its supporters in the US and Europe want Biden to let Kiev use the weapons to strike targets deeper inside Russia, and there are signs Biden might shift US policy.

Two US officials familiar with discussions about the weapons said ahead of the talks that they believe Starmer will seek Biden's approval to allow Ukraine to use British Storm Shadow missiles for expanded strikes in Russia.

Biden's approval is needed because Storm Shadow components are made in the US.

Ukraine also wants more long-range weaponry from Washington, including the Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS.

Russian warning

Putin has threatened that Ukraine's use of long-range weapons would put NATO at war with Moscow.

Putin said on Thursday that allowing long-range strikes "would mean that NATO countries, the United States and European countries, are at war with Russia."

His remarks were in line with the narrative the Kremlin has promoted since early in the war, accusing NATO countries of de-facto participation in the conflict and threatening a response.

Starmer said on Thursday on his way to the US that Britain does not seek conflict with Russia.

Russia in Review, Sept. 6-13, 2024

5 Things to Know

The U.S., U.K. and France have continued to debate this week whether to allow Ukraine to use some Western-supplied long-range missiles for long-range strikes at targets inside Russia, such as U.K.-built Storm Shadows and their French-made equivalents, Scalps, that rely on U.S. equipment for navigation, thus, giving Washington the right of veto for their use. The Biden administration is reportedly poised to approve Storm Shadows and Scalps for such use (though not on Sept. 13), but it remains divided on whether to allow use of U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) for the same purpose. The U.S. State Department is open to Kyiv’s request for use of ATACMS, while the Pentagon and the intelligence agencies are skeptical, according to FT. But even the use of Storm Shadows and Scalps inside Russia would mean NATO countries are at war with Russia, according to Vladimir Putin’s Sept. 12 remarks, which were echoed by his spokesman Dmitry Peskov and his U.N. envoy Vasily Nebenzia. The fear in the White House is that hardliners in the Kremlin could insist this retaliation takes the form of attacking transit points for missiles on their way to Ukraine, such as an airbase in Poland in what would lead to invoking of NATO’s Article 5, meaning the alliance would be at war with Russia, according to the BBC.

Asked on Friday about Russia’s threats, John Kirby, the White House spokesman, said that Mr. Putin “has obviously proven capable of escalation over the last now going on three years. So yeah, we take, we take these comments seriously.” “But,” he added, “it is not something that we haven’t heard before.” (NYT, 09.13.24)

Lord Kim Darroch, Britain’s former national security adviser, said western allies should think carefully about Putin’s warnings of a war between Moscow and NATO. “We really don’t want to escalate this,” he told FT.

Matthew Savill of RUSI believes lifting restrictions on use of Western-made long-range missiles by Ukraine would pose a dilemma for Russia as to where to position its precious air defenses. Ultimately however, such use is unlikely to turn the tide, according to Savill. If Savill’s estimate is accurate, then as was the case with prior steps in the ladder of arming Ukraine, the use of Storm Shadows and Scalps would be a morale booster for the Ukrainian leadership and would also generate some benefits on the battlefield, but wouldn’t be a game changer.*1

William Burns of CIA and Richard Moore of MI6 said it would be wrong to take Putin’s threats of nuclear escalation lightly but that the West should not be unnecessarily intimidated, according to FT.
Ukraine's leaders have been insisting that Russia needs to be driven out of all Ukrainian territory before any peace talks, but a combination of two factors now compel Kyiv to “come up with a more realistic plan, at least for the next year of the war,” European diplomats told WSJ. These factors are Russian forces’ gains in the east and “Western support for Ukraine showing signs of fatigue,” WSJ reported. “Kyiv has been told that a full Ukrainian victory would require the West to provide hundreds of billions of dollars worth of support,” which is unrealistic to expect, according to WSJ’s article, entitled “Ukraine Pressed to Think About a Plan B for War With Russia." U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said prior to arriving in Kyiv on Sept. 11 that his trip was in part to see “exactly how the Ukrainians see their needs in this moment, toward what objectives and what we can do to support those needs,” WSJ reported. While no details about Ukraine’s war aims were reported following Blinken’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the latter has revealed that he plans to present a “victory plan” during his visit to the U.S. later this week, according to Ukrainian media. He said the plan will not have many points and each point will depend on Biden's decision, according to RBC.ua.


The Russian army's advances in the eastern Donetsk region have moved the frontline to within 8 kilometers of the key transportation hub of Pokrovsk this week, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry. Capturing this city and the nearby city of Chasiv Yar would disrupt Ukrainian supply lines along the eastern front and give Russian forces a big strategic advantage in seizing the rest of the Donbas region, which Putin has declared part of Russia, according to WSJ,2 NYT and Newsweek. On Sept. 7, NYT reported that Russia’s drive toward Pokrovsk had stalled along one part of the frontline. However, on Sept. 12, Ukraine's OSINT group Deep State reported that the Russian forces advanced in Hrodivka, which lies about 10 kilometers to the east of Pokrovsk.

The Russian army’s offensive tactics in eastern Ukraine continue to depend on glide bombs and artillery superiority, according to The Economist. That superiority ranges from at least 3:1 up to 10:1 in some sections, according to The Economist and U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey. According to Healey, Russia is also conscripting or recruiting 400,000 additional soldiers this year. That equals almost half of the total number of troops available to Ukrainian command, according to SACEUR Christopher Cavoli.
On Sept. 10, Russian troops reportedly began to push the Ukrainian forces back from Russia’s southwestern Kursk region in a counteroffensive, according to MT. Zelenskyy acknowledged the pushback, but enigmatically claimed that “Everything is going according to the Ukrainian plan,” according to Bloomberg. On Sept. 12, the Russian defense ministry claimed its forces had retaken 10 settlements in the Kursk region, or about 63 of about 900 square kilometers of land, which Ukrainian forces controlled in that region as of earlier this week, according to FT and the U.K. Defense Department.


In their first and possibly last debate on Sept. 10, former U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris crossed swords on a number of issues, including whether a quick peace is attainable in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Trump claimed that he “will get the war with Ukraine and Russia ended… before even becoming president.” Harris countered with asserting that “I believe the reason Donald Trump says this war would be over within 24 hours is because he would just give it up,” according to MT.

Republican vice-presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance has laid out a potential Trump administration's approach to ending Russia's war in Ukraine, saying Trump's handling of the conflict could include establishing a "demilitarized zone" in Ukrainian territory now occupied by Russia, according to WP. As part of the peace plan, Vance said, Ukraine would maintain its independence in exchange for a guarantee of neutrality—meaning Ukraine wouldn't join NATO or other "allied institutions,” WP reported.