Milan under stress due to heat waves: study reveals districts most at risk of cardiovascular emergencies

Politecnico di Milano

 

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Map of the surveyed districts: 18 NILs (Local Identity Nuclei - administrative divisions recognized by the Municipality of Milan https://www.pgt.comune.milano.it/psschede-dei-nil-nuclei-di-identita-locale/nuclei-di-identita-locale-nil) highly vulnerable to heat in cardiovascular contexts and 20 low vulnerability NILs were identified. Among the NILs with high vulnerability and high number of residents are those of Buenos Aires - Porta Venezia- Porta Manforte, Loreto Casoretto Nolo, via Padova - Turro- Crescenzago and Quartiere Gallaratese - Quartiere San Leonardo - Lampugnano. The districts with many residents and low vulnerability are Gorla Precotto, Villapizzone, Porta Magenta, Chiesa Rossa. Milan has also been divided into three socio-urban clusters: Central, Residential and Suburban. In these clusters, five key variables - surface temperature, fountain density, percentages of seniors, women and high educated residents - have a significant impact on cardiovascular vulnerability during hot weather. Regarding highly vulnerable NILs, over 210,000 residents (66% of total residents in high vulnerability NILs) are concentrated in the Central cluster, while in low vulnerability NILs almost 200,000 residents (70% of the population of the least vulnerable NILs) reside in the Residential part of the city.

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Credit: Politecnico di Milano

Milano, 11 December 2024 – A new study conducted by D-Hygea Lab of the Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering of the Politecnico di Milano, in collaboration with the Regional Emergency Agency (AREU), has analysed the impact of heat waves on the cardiovascular health of Milan residents. The results show that in 18 highly vulnerable districts, home to 23% of the city’s population, the risk of cardiovascular emergencies increases by 22% during days of extreme heat compared to normal days. In contrast, in 20 low vulnerability districts, the increased risk is not significant.

Among the most vulnerable districts, with a high percentage of elderly residents, are Buenos Aires - Porta Venezia and Loreto-Casoretto. Districts like Gorla-Precotto and Porta Magenta, featuring the presence of public fountains and green areas, are more resilient. A higher percentage of elderly and high educated residents is associated with increased cardiovascular risk. In contrast, the density of public fountains and a higher percentage of female residents are linked to a lower risk of emergencies during hot weather.

The study analysed 64,881 cardiovascular emergencies recorded between 2017 and 2022, identifying 114 days of extreme heat, defined as those with an apparent temperature above the 95th percentile. The hottest day was 27 June 2019, with an average temperature of 36° C. Using artificial intelligence, Milan was divided into three homogeneous socio-urban clusters – Central, Residential and Suburban – highlighting how factors such as the percentage of elderly, density of fountains and greenery significantly affect cardiovascular vulnerability.

“This study allows us to clearly visualize where and how extreme heat affects the cardiovascular health of residents,” explains Enrico Gianluca Caiani, professor of Bioengineering at the Politecnico di Milano. “These data can guide targeted policies, such as increasing green areas in the most vulnerable districts.”

The resulting framework can be applied in other cities, using local variables or data. The research team, composed of Professor Caiani and researchers Julia Nawaro and Lorenzo Gianquintieri, has recently started collaborations with the Municipality of Milan and participated in international projects, such as URBANA of the European Space Agency, which explores the theme of urban heat through satellite data.

The entire study was published in the journal Population and Environment: link to study.

 

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Journal

Population and Environment

DOI

10.1007/s11111-024-00466-3 

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Neighborhood determinants of vulnerability to heat for cardiovascular health: a spatial analysis of Milan, Italy.

 

Empowering older adults with home-care robots

Researchers assess factors influencing willingness to use home-care robots among caregivers and older adults in Japan, Ireland, and Finland

Chiba University

 

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Home-care robots hold significant potential in empowering older adults. Researchers from Chiba University, Japan, assess factors influencing the willingness to use home-care robots among caregivers and older adults in Japan, Ireland, and Finland.

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Credit: Governor Tom Wolf from flicker https://www.flickr.com/photos/governortomwolf/51038559263/

Advances in medicine have led to an increase in human longevity. Estimates suggest that by 2030, one in every six individuals globally will be aged over 60 years. This rapid increase in the aging population implies a larger number of aged individuals requiring care. Family members and professional caregivers may not be able to meet this increasing demand. Furthermore, reports suggest a significant shortage of workforce, including nurses, in several developed countries, underscoring the need for additional strategies that cater to the needs of older adults.

 

Simple and effective technologies such as robots can bridge this gap and help provide the care needed for older individuals to age in the comfort of their homes. However, despite their significant potential, social acceptance of assistive home-care robots in aging societies remains an issue. Further, their widespread use is impeded by challenges in developing robots that can cater to the specific needs of older individuals requiring long-term care across different countries, given the cultural, ethical, and financial differences.

 

In a new study, researchers from Chiba University, Japan, sought to elucidate the factors that affect users’ willingness to use home-care robots. Previous studies have shown that public involvement in research has a positive impact on the study design and patient engagement. Building on this, the researchers examined a user-centric approach that involves potential users in the research and development process of home-care robots. This approach takes into consideration real-life expectations and problems faced by users.

 

Giving further insight into their work published in Scientific Reports, on November 12, 2024, Professor Sayuri Suwa, the corresponding author of the article, says, “In countries where the population is aging, the use of home-care robots will enable many people to achieve ‘aging in place.’ Each country has its own unique history, culture, and legal system, so we wanted to clarify how home-care robots could be developed and implemented in a way that respects these differences.” This research was actively co-authored by Dr. Hiroo Ide from the Institute for Future Initiatives, The University of Tokyo; Dr. Yumi Akuta from the Division of Nursing, Faculty of Healthcare, Tokyo Healthcare University; Dr. Naonori Kodate from the UCD School of Social Policy, Social Work and Social Justice, University College Dublin; Dr. Jaakko Hallila from Seinäjoki University of Applied Sciences; and Dr. Wenwei Yu from the Center for Frontier Medical Engineering, Chiba University.

 

The team conducted a questionnaire-based survey of care recipients and caregivers across Japan, Ireland, and Finland. The questionnaire assessed four different aspects of users’ willingness, namely – familiarity with robots, important points about home-care robots, functions expected from home-care robots, and ethically acceptable uses, through 48 different items. The researchers analyzed the responses of 525 Japanese, 163 Irish, and 170 Finnish participants for common and distinct factors influencing their willingness to use robots.

 

The analysis revealed that “willingness to participate in research and development,” “interest in robot-related news,” and “having a positive impression of robots” were common factors among respondents from the three countries. On the other hand, “convenience” in Japan, “notifying family members and support personnel when an unexpected change occurs in an older person” in Ireland, and “design” in Finland were found to be distinct factors influencing the use of robots.

 

Additionally, the study highlights how historic, cultural, and demographic variables across the countries influence the implementation of home-care robots. In Japan, robot development is being encouraged by the government, industry, and academia, with a general optimism towards their application. While robot development is slightly behind in Ireland, its use for older adults is being increasingly recognized, and artificial intelligence and robotics are being applied in health and social care. The Finnish respondents' choice of 'design' is in line with Finnish design, which is widely known worldwide, suggesting that it is important in robot manufacturing.

 

Overall, the study highlights the importance of user participation and their perspective in the development of home-care technology. Home-care robots hold significant potential in empowering older adults. “Developing home-care robots in collaboration with potential users, such as older people and care providers, will foster better product acceptance in the future. This is beneficial not only for validating the home-care products under development but also for truly expanding the use of home-care robots. Ultimately, this would lead to greater well-being for users,” Prof. Suwa concludes.

 

With the right blend of innovation, collaboration, and cultural sensitivity, home-care robots could soon transform the dream of ‘aging in place’ into a global reality!

 

About Professor Sayuri Suwa

Professor Sayuri Suwa is a faculty at the Department of Community Health Nursing, Chiba University, Japan. Her research focuses on dementia care, gerontological nursing, and home care. Prof. Suwa’s work involves developing care technologies for people with dementia, ethics for the care of older people, and the development and social implementation of home care technologies. She is actively involved in discussions on the decision-making concerning the use of AI and care robots, as well as ethical considerations related to personal information and privacy protection. She aims to ensure the delivery of personalized care tailored to individual needs.

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Journal

Scientific Reports

DOI

10.1038/s41598-024-79414-y 

Method of Research

Survey

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

A comparative study to elucidate factors explaining willingness to use home-care robots in Japan, Ireland, and Finland

 

AMERIKA

The impact of government assistance, housing, and employment on postpartum maternal health across income and race

Stressful periods such as COVID-19, hurricanes or infant formula shortages negatively impact racial groups differently

Pennington Biomedical Research Center

Researchers provide vital insights into social determinants such as government support, stable housing, and employment opportunities on postpartum health among Louisiana mothers during stressful periods including COVID-19, hurricanes and the infant formula shortage.

The study, "The role of government assistance, housing, and employment on postpartum maternal health across income and race: a mixed methods study," published in BMC Public Health, was led by a multidisciplinary team of researchers from the Reproductive Endocrinology & Women’s Health Laboratory at Pennington Biomedical research Center, along with colleagues from Woman’s Hospital and Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine.

The study sheds light on the disparities that disproportionately affect lower-income and minority mothers. It underscores the need for targeted policy interventions to improve maternal health equity and strengthen postpartum care.

“The postpartum period is a critical time for both mothers and their infants,” said Dr. Leanne Redman, Associate Executive Director for Scientific Education and Director of the Reproductive Endocrinology & Women’s Health Laboratory. “This study demonstrates the profound impact that social support systems and economic stability have on maternal health outcomes after birth. By addressing these factors, we can make meaningful strides toward reducing health disparities and improving the well-being of families across our nation.”

The study utilized a mixed methods approach, combining quantitative data analysis with qualitative interviews to provide a comprehensive understanding of postpartum health challenges. Key findings include:

• Access to government assistance programs positively influenced maternal health outcomes, particularly among low-income families.
• Stable housing was identified as a crucial factor in reducing stress and fostering recovery during the postpartum period.
• Employment stability and supportive workplace policies significantly contributed to improved health outcomes and mental well-being for postpartum mothers.

The study’s findings highlight the urgent need for policymakers, healthcare providers, and community organizations to collaborate on initiatives that ensure equitable access to resources for all mothers, regardless of income or race.

“At Pennington Biomedical, we are committed to advancing research that not only deepens our understanding of health disparities but also provides actionable solutions,” said Dr. John Kirwan, Executive Director of Pennington Biomedical. “This study exemplifies how research can inform policy and improve the health and lives of vulnerable populations.”

This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health [grant numbers: K99HD107158, P20GM144269, R01 NR017644, R01 DK124806, and U54 GM104940]. For more information on the study, visit BMC Public Health.

About the Pennington Biomedical Research Center

The Pennington Biomedical Research Center is at the forefront of medical discovery as it relates to understanding the triggers of obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer and dementia. Pennington Biomedical has the vision to lead the world in promoting metabolic health and eliminating metabolic disease through scientific discoveries that create solutions from cells to society. The center conducts basic, clinical, and population research, and is a campus in the LSU System.

The research enterprise at Pennington Biomedical includes over 530 employees within a network of 44 clinics and research laboratories, and 13 highly specialized core service facilities. Its scientists and physician/scientists are supported by research trainees, lab technicians, nurses, dietitians, and other support personnel. Pennington Biomedical is a globally recognized state-of-the-art research institution in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. For more information, see www.pbrc.edu.

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Journal

BMC Public Health

DOI

10.1186/s12889-024-20745-w 

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

The role of government assistance, housing, and employment on postpartum maternal health across income and race: a mixed methods study

 

Flood disasters associated with preterm births and low birth weights

American Geophysical Union

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WASHINGTON — Floods can shape someone’s health before they’re even born, according to new research. The findings will be presented on Tuesday, 10 December at AGU’s 2024 Annual Meeting in Washington, D.C., where more than 28,000 scientists will gather to discuss the latest Earth and space science research. 

A new analysis of more than 3,000 studies from around the world reveals that globally, flooding increases preterm births by about 3%. Children who were in utero during a flood event are also more likely to have a low birth weight. Both these outcomes are risk factors for developing chronic health conditions such as asthma and diabetes later in life.  

The study did not pinpoint the physical mechanisms by which floods might cause preterm births or low birth weights, but research into other disasters suggests stress, disruption and delayed access to health care are likely factors.  

This analysis shows that flooding “has lifelong impacts,” said Julia Gohlke, an environmental health scientist at Virginia Tech who led the research. As climate change is already increasing flooding, this research will help give “a better estimate of what’s at stake.” 

Higher waters, lower birth weights 

Floods can impact human health directly, such as by causing injury or death, or spreading diseases. They can also have less direct impact, including prolonged stress and loss of income. But researchers are still working to understand the full suite of negative impacts on human health. Some studies have suggested that flooding can lead to worse outcomes for pregnant people and their babies, but results have been inconsistent.  

To get a clearer idea of the impact of flooding on pregnancy, Gohlke and her colleagues analyzed findings from 3,177 studies that collected data on pregnancy length and birth weight and flooding from the 1800s to present. Data varied widely between floods and regions: While some researchers found no impact from flooding on pregnancy, others found compelling evidence that flooding increased the risk for complications during pregnancy and birth. For example, one 2008 study looking at pre-term birth following Hurricane Katerina concluded that a flood had caused around a 230% increase in pre-term births.  

Altogether, the researchers found that any given flood increases the pre-term birth rate by around 3%, compared to an unflooded region. Around 7% more children who were in utero during a flood event were born with a low birth weight.  

Stress can last a lifetime 

Flooding might induce early labor and low birth weight for several reasons, Gohlke said. Stress can induce early labor. For instance, heat waves are linked to more pre-term births, possibly due to dehydration. Something similar might happen during flood events if water supplies are compromised or people must travel long distances on foot to get away from dangerous areas, as people had to in North Carolina due to Hurricane Helene this September.  

Early births might also increase during floods because people are unable to get to healthcare in time to avoid going into labor. Pre-term birth can be halted if someone has access to healthcare services, but flooded or damaged roads might prevent them from getting there in time.  

Low birth weights are often associated with pre-term births, but that’s not always the case, Gohlke said. People who eat less during pregnancy give birth to babies with lower birth weights, even if they go into labor on schedule. Because flooding can imperil people’s access to food, either by destroying crops or blocking access to food supplies, people who are pregnant during flooding might be more likely to give birth to smaller babies. 

Pre-term birth and low birth weights don’t guarantee that a baby will develop neurological issues, obesity or diabetes later in life. But they do increase the risk. With that in mind, emergency services should aim to evacuate pregnant people before flooding events, Gohlke said. And as for pregnant people living in flood-prone areas, “it’s important that you have access to get somewhere for help,” even if your house doesn’t flood, she said.    

# 

Presentation information 

Pregnancy Complications and Adverse Birth Outcomes During and Following Flood Events 
Tuesday, 10 December 2024, 16:30 - 16:38 ET 
University of DC & Catholic (Marriott Marquis)  

We ask that stories about this research not publish before 8:00 a.m. EST on the date of the presentation.

# 

AGU’s Annual Meeting (#AGU24) will bring more than 28,000 Earth and space scientists to the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington, D.C. from 9-13 December. Members of the press and public information officers can request complimentary press registration for the meeting now through the end of the conference. Learn more about the press AGU24 experience in our online Press Center. 

AGU (www.agu.org) is a global community supporting more than half a million advocates and professionals in Earth and space sciences. Through broad and inclusive partnerships, AGU aims to advance discovery and solution science that accelerate knowledge and create solutions that are ethical, unbiased and respectful of communities and their values. Our programs include serving as a scholarly publisher, convening virtual and in-person events and providing career support. We live our values in everything we do, such as our net zero energy renovated building in Washington, D.C. and our Ethics and Equity Center, which fosters a diverse and inclusive geoscience community to ensure responsible conduct.  

 

Increased area income improves birthweight rates, researchers find

Using the Marcellus Shale economic boom as a natural experiment while controlling for pollution, drill sites and more, researchers found that each $1,000 increase in income at the school district level led to decreased low-birthweight rates

Penn State

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — Higher incomes are often correlated with healthier pregnancies and babies, but is it really the money that matters? Sedimentary rocks that formed 390 million years ago, surprisingly, help provide the answer, at least for those who live above the Marcellus Shale formation, according to a team led by researchers at Penn State.

Using the Marcellus Shale economic boom — which originated with extracting natural gas from the formation and pumped billions of dollars into Pennsylvania between 2007 and 2012 — the researchers examined area incomes and birth weights, among other variables, in school districts sitting atop the black rock that stretches under much of Pennsylvania. In areas where the shale had the highest natural gas yield potential but not necessarily where wells were drilled, the researchers found an increase in area income across the socioeconomic spectrum led to a decrease in low birthweights, defined as less than five and a half pounds.

More specifically, in a group comprising 12,930 sibling pairs — one born pre-boom between 2005 and 2007 and another born post-boom between 2012 and 2013 — the researchers found the percentage of babies born at a low weight decreased by 1.5%, from 6.3% to 5.8%. The percentage change represents nearly 600 babies in the study born at higher birthweight, a key indicator for better health outcomes, according to the researchers. They published their findings in Demography.

“We know that infants who are born with low birthweight have greater risk of developing cognitive and health challenges, which are associated with lower educational attainment, lifetime earnings and adult health,” said lead author Molly Martin, professor of sociology and demography at Penn State. “What we didn’t know is whether income gains would improve pregnancy and infant health.”

Birthweight is tied to multiple health outcomes for babies, from immediate indicators, such as the ability to breathe, strength of their immune system and infant mortality, to long-term developmental factors and disease risk. To better understand how area income increases impact birthweight, pre-term birth rates, maternal health and behaviors before and during pregnancy, such as smoking and prenatal care compliance, the researchers used a “quasi-experimental” design. This is a common approach in the social sciences that can help estimate cause-and-effect relationships, not just identify correlations, among variables.

“It is impossible to randomly assign people to different lives with different resources,” Martin said, explaining that the shale formation provided an independent touchstone completely divided from any social or cultural influence. “All of the things that encourage or accompany an economic boom, such as development or job creation or pollution, influence outcomes at the surface. The areas of the shale formation with the greatest potential value serve as the predictor of economic improvement on the surface above.”

The Marcellus Shale economic boom served as a “natural experiment” of changing factors, Martin said. Her team used 21 datasets comprising information on demographics, taxes, births, expanded development like building roads for drilling well access, environmental impacts, including pollution, and more from national and state sources to crosscheck and control for potential confounding influences. The sibling group, which represented 271 districts, allowed the researchers to tighten controls even more and rule out things like differences in parenting style and genetic predisposition. With all factors made equal, income increase benefits came down to the potential economic value of the shale underpinning a community.

“Our map doesn’t focus on drilling but rather the potential economic impact based on the quality of the Marcellus Shale formation itself,” Martin said. “If communities lived above areas estimated to contain more natural gas, they had more money — even if drilling was not as extensive. And those communities had decreased rates of low birth weight.”

Income gains at the community level also led to a 1.8 percentage point increase in the rate of people receiving adequate prenatal care. However, income improvements did not bolster all pregnancy-related outcomes. Martin said they were surprised to find that they did not see improvements in pregnancy health and health behaviors — such as gestational weight or smoking rates.

Alexander Chapman, postdoctoral fellow in Penn State’s Edna Bennett Pierce Prevention Research Center, explained that their findings suggest income increases, even at the community-level, improve the well-being of pregnant people and their newborns, even if it doesn’t necessarily change individual behaviors.

“Income gains potentially reduce the number of stressors and hardships — or their consequences — leading to improvements in infant health,” Chapman said.

The researchers are continuing to examine the data to further explore how income gains affect children and families and inform public policies aimed at improving population health. According to Martin, their findings specifically highlight the benefits of community-wide economic improvements.

“This finding backs up other studies that show how important improvements in living standards are for health,” Martin said. “The development of the Marcellus Shale formation brought millions of dollars to parts of Pennsylvania, much more than the typical increases in targeted government funding for public assistance or infant health. The community-wide economic improvement benefitted people across the income spectrum.”

Tiffany L. Green, associate professor of obstetrics and gynecology and population health sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, also contributed to this project.

This work was supported by the Russell Sage Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, the National Institute on Drug Abuse, the Society of Family Planning Research Fund, the County Health Rankings and Roadmaps Program, Penn State’s Social Science Research Institute, Penn State’s Population Research Institute, Penn State’s Edna Bennett Pierce Prevention Research Center, and the University of Wisconsin’s Center for Demography and Ecology and School of Medicine and Public Health Centennial Scholars Program.

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Journal

Demography

DOI

10.1215/00703370-11691517 

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

The Causal Effect of Increasing Area-Level Income on Birth Outcomes and Pregnancy-Related Health: Estimates From the Marcellus Shale Boom Economy

Article Publication Date

10-Dec-2024

 

Smart TVs collect viewing data even when used as external screens

According to research involving UC3M

Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

A scientific team from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (UC3M), in collaboration with University College London (England) and the University of California, Davis (USA), has found that smart TVs send viewing data to their servers. This allows brands to generate detailed profiles of consumers’ habits and tailor advertisements based on their behaviour.

The research revealed that this technology captures screenshots or audio to identify the content displayed on the screen using Automatic Content Recognition (ACR) technology. This data is then periodically sent to specific servers, even when the TV is used as an external screen or connected to a laptop.

"Automatic Content Recognition works like a kind of visual Shazam, taking screenshots or audio to create a viewer profile based on their content consumption habits. This technology enables manufacturers’ platforms to profile users accurately, much like the internet does," explains one of the study's authors, Patricia Callejo, a professor in UC3M's Department of Telematics Engineering and a fellow at the UC3M-Santander Big Data Institute. "In any case, this tracking—regardless of the usage mode—raises serious privacy concerns, especially when the TV is used solely as a monitor."

The findings, presented in November at the Internet Measurement Conference (IMC) 2024, highlight the frequency with which these screenshots are transmitted to the servers of the brands analysed: Samsung and LG. Specifically, the research showed that Samsung TVs sent this information every minute, while LG devices did so every 15 seconds. "This gives us an idea of the intensity of the monitoring and shows that smart TV platforms collect large volumes of data on users, regardless of how they consume content—whether through traditional TV viewing or devices connected via HDMI, like laptops or gaming consoles," Callejo emphasises.

To test the ability of TVs to block ACR tracking, the research team experimented with various privacy settings on smart TVs. The results demonstrated that, while users can voluntarily block the transmission of this data to servers, the default setting is for TVs to perform ACR. "The problem is that not all users are aware of this," adds Callejo, who considers this lack of transparency in initial settings concerning. "Moreover, many users don’t know how to change the settings, meaning these devices function by default as tracking mechanisms for their activity."

This research opens up new avenues for studying the tracking capabilities of cloud-connected devices that communicate with each other (commonly known as the Internet of Things, or IoT). It also suggests that manufacturers and regulators must urgently address the challenges that these new devices will present in the near future.

Bibliographic reference: Anselmi, G., Vekaria, Y., D'Souza, A., Callejo, P., Mandalari, Am., Shafiq, Z. (2024). Watching TV with the Second-Party: A First Look at Automatic Content Recognition Tracking in Smart TVs. In Proceedings of the 2024 ACM on Internet Measurement Conference (IMC '24). Association for Computing Machinery, New York, NY, USA, 622–634. https://doi.org/10.1145/3646547.3689013  

Video: https://youtu.be/eWSsLjClMGY

 

Leap in modelling human impact on climate may lead to early warning of climate disasters

Mathematicians led by the University of Leicester have applied statistical mechanics to climate change detection and attribution for first time

University of Leicester

 

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Map showing global temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius caused by doubling the concentration of carbon dioxide over a century.

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Credit: Valerio Lucarini and Mickaël Chekroun

A breakthrough in the theory of climate change science has given scientists the most robust way yet to link observed climate change to both human-made and natural causes and to spot early warning signals for potential climate disasters.

An international collaboration between Valerio Lucarini, a mathematician from the University of Leicester, and scientist Mickaël Chekroun has led to applying principles of statistical mechanics to climate science to frame how to distinguish the climate change signal from the “background noise” of natural climate variability and to flag the nearing of ‘tipping points,’ such as those associated with the collapse of the Atlantic Ocean circulation or of the Amazon forest.

This theoretical advance paves the way for the development of innovative methods to study climate change and its associated risks, thanks to a more advanced understanding the underlying mechanisms driving climate change.

Published in the journal Physical Review Letters, it will give scientists the confidence in performing climate change attribution and to identify when we are on the route to a potential climatic tipping, and to take preventative measures to mitigate against one. It will give policymakers much needed certainty about the procedures used for assessing climate change.

Tipping points are thresholds in our climate system that potentially lead to large scale change and damage to our environment. Events such as the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a slowdown of which would result in a relative cooling in this region, or the ecological collapse of the Amazon rainforest would have disastrous implications for life on our planet. However, it is difficult to anticipate when we are reaching a potential tipping point from climate data.

The challenge is distinguishing the evidence of climate change and, in particular, an impending tipping point from the natural climate variability that exists. The ‘signal’ of human-caused climate changes is obscured in the ‘noise’ of natural changes in the environment. The Leicester-led team found that the existing approach, based on a purely statistical method, provides limited information about the dynamical processes that affect our climate. It provides a snapshot of our climate, with no insight into how it came to be that way.

By applying the principles of statistical mechanics – the physics behind random dynamical processes - their research instead allows us to turn back the clock on that snapshot and understand how that picture was formed. They created a mathematical model able to recreate dynamically the processes at play and identify the causes of change. From this, they could ‘fingerprint’ the signal of human-caused climate change and determine its impact, allowing a dramatic improvement in the ability to detect early warnings of climatic tipping points.

Lead author Professor Valerio Lucarini from the University of Leicester School of Computing and Mathematical Sciences said: “This problem of how we attribute anthropogenic forcings in climate data has far-reaching consequences. Climate change sceptics have questioned how you can relate a forcing in a system that fluctuates a lot to a specific cause. The climate has always changed and will always change. How do you counter that argument and demonstrate what we're observing now is due to human intervention? Of course, the scientific community has come to strong counterarguments but so far they were exclusively based upon statistical, and not dynamical, arguments.

“The breakthrough we made is in connecting the physics of the system, the laws that determine the evolution of the system, to what you can observe. It's pretty clear from that the best way to study change is in the evolutionary laws that impact what we're observing, and that change would be exactly the climate forcing we are looking for."

Dr Mickaël Chekroun from the University of California, Los Angeles, and the Weizmann Institute of Science added: “This is quite a big step because it tells us that the detection and attribution methods we have used for many years to say that climate change is there are well founded. We show how the methodology can be improved and we can see its potential pitfalls. We have advanced substantially the theory of climate dynamics and of the relationship between climate variability and climate change.”

• V. Lucarini, and M.D. Chekroun (2024): Detecting and Attributing Change in Climate and Complex Systems: Foundations, Green’s Functions, and Nonlinear Fingerprints, Physical Review Letters, 133, 224201, DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.133.244201

Ends

Notes to Editors

About the University of Leicester  

The University of Leicester is the Daily Mail University of the Year 2025 and shortlisted for University of the Year for both the Times Higher Education Awards 2024 and the Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide 2025.

The University is led by discovery and innovation – an international centre for excellence renowned for research, teaching and broadening access to higher education. It is among the Top 30 universities in the Times Higher Education (THE)’s Research Excellence Framework (REF) 2021 rankings with 89% of research assessed as world-leading or internationally excellent, with wide-ranging impacts on society, health, culture, and the environment. In 2023, the University received an overall Gold in the Teaching Excellence Framework (TEF) 2023, making it one of a small number of institutions nationally to achieve TEF Gold alongside a top 30 REF performance. The University is home to more than 20,000 students and approximately 4,000 staff.

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Journal

Physical Review Letters

DOI

10.1103/PhysRevLett.133.244201 

Article Title

Detecting and Attributing Change in Climate and Complex Systems: Foundations, Green’s Functions, and Nonlinear Fingerprints

Article Publication Date

9-Dec-2024

 

Seals strategically scoot around the seas on icebergs

New study shows seal moms prefer slow and steady icebergs, while seals prefer faster ice in better foraging grounds later in the year

American Geophysical Union

 

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Seals resting on an iceberg in Johns Hopkins Inlet, Glacier Bay National Park. Credit: Jamie Womble/NPS 

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Credit: Seals resting on an iceberg in Johns Hopkins Inlet, Glacier Bay National Park. If using, please credit: Jamie Womble/NPS

WASHINGTON — Harbor seals in icy regions use icebergs shed by glaciers as safe platforms to give birth, care for young and molt. New research finds that as glaciers change with the climate, the resulting changes in size, speed and number of icebergs affect seals’ critical frozen habitat. Mother seals prefer stable, slower-moving bergs for giving birth and caring for newborn pups, while in the molting season, they and the rest of the seal population favor speedier ice near the best foraging grounds. 

“Our work provides a direct link between a glacier’s advance and seals’ distribution and behavior,” said Lynn Kaluzienski, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Alaska Southeast who led the study. “Interdisciplinary studies like this one coupled with long-term monitoring campaigns will be important to understand how climate change will influence tidewater glacier fjord ecosystems in the future.”

Kaluzienski will present the findings at AGU’s 2024 Annual Meeting in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, 10 December. From 9-13 December, #AGU24 brings together more than 30,000 scientists to discuss the latest in Earth and space science research.

The study focused on harbor seals and icebergs in Johns Hopkins Inlet and Glacier, located in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska. Johns Hopkins is one of the few glaciers on Earth that is advancing (growing thicker and flowing forward into the fjord) rather than retreating due to global warming, partly thanks to its terminal moraine, comprising crushed rock and other sediment, which effectively barricades the front of the glacier from warmer ocean water that would increase the glacier’s melt rate. 

But that wall of sediment reduces the number of icebergs the glacier sheds into the fjord.  Fewer icebergs means less habitat for seals, making it crucial that researchers understand how seals use the icebergs available to them.

Kaluzienski, university colleagues, and collaborators from the U.S. National Park Service spent the last few years documenting fine-scale variations in icebergs and in the distribution of seals in the fjord, using time-lapse cameras and aerial photographic surveys. 

“Icebergs are found throughout the fjord in regions of fast flow, within eddies, and close to the glacier,” Kaluzienski said. “We wanted to understand which of these areas seals were using and how this habitat is changing in response to advances at the glacier front and reduction in iceberg numbers.”

When an iceberg breaks away from a glacier, its speed and path are affected by wind, ocean currents and freshwater runoff streaming from the base of the glacier. Called a plume, this jet of water is more buoyant than the salty ocean water in the fjord. The plume brings plankton and fish to the surface, creating a moving buffet that seals can snack on from icebergs.  

The researchers used remote sensing data to find the plume and compared it to where icebergs and seals are during the pupping season in June and molting season in August. They found that during the pupping season, seals that were out of the water generally could be found on slower-moving icebergs, with speeds slower than 7-8 inches (0.2 meters) per second. Conversely, during the molting season, the seals were increasingly likely to be found on faster-moving icebergs in or near the plume. 

It’s possible that icebergs in slower waters are more stable, giving adult seals a sturdier platform for caring for young pups. The stability of the ice may be less critical when the seals are molting, and bergs near the plume may offer more foraging opportunities.

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High-speed rail and regional environmental inequality

PNAS Nexus

The introduction of high-speed rail reduced spatial environmental inequality in China by helping elements such as green technologies spread across the country. Shengjun Zhu and colleagues hypothesized that the introduction of high-speed rail between 1998 and 2010 helped facilitate the spread of elements including capital, labor, green technology, and information, particularly from leading to lagging areas. These trends could contribute to the reduction of industrial pollution, and the authors hypothesized that the effects would be more pronounced in lagging areas than in leading areas. Regression analyses based on detailed emission records from industrial firms show that firm-level emissions of sulfur dioxide, dust, wastewater, and chemical oxygen demand (an indicator of poor water quality) all fell between 5%–14% in specific regions after being connected to the new rail network—and that the effect was larger for underdeveloped areas like the central inland provinces and northeastern regions. The authors also found an increase in per-capita filings of total patents and green technology patents in cities after connecting to the rail network. Aggregating firm-level pollution emissions to the national level, the authors estimate a 0.49%–1.70% reduction in national industrial pollution due to the introduction of high-speed rail. According to the authors, high-speed rail plays a significant and positive role in achieving inter-regional environmental equality and could help lagging regions catch up with leading regions, with implications for other developing countries that are undergoing industrialization and faced with pressing environmental burdens.

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Journal

PNAS Nexus

Article Title

Reducing industrial pollution and inter-regional environmental inequality via the world’s largest high-speed railway network

Article Publication Date

10-Dec-2024