It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Monday, September 01, 2025
TotalEnergies Wins Oil and Gas Exploration Permit Offshore Congo
TotalEnergies has been awarded a massive new exploration permit offshore the Republic of Congo, which could ultimately boost oil and gas supply from West Africa.
TotalEnergies and its minority partners QatarEnergy and Congo’s national company SNPC have been awarded the Nzombo exploration permit, close to the Moho production facilities operated by TotalEnergies, the French supermajor said on Monday.
TotalEnergies holds 50% and is the operator of the 1,000 square kilometer (386 square miles) Nzombo exploration permit. QatarEnergy has a 35% stake and SNPC holds the remaining 15%.
Nzombo is located about 100 kilometers (62 miles) off the coast of Pointe-Noire, close to the Moho production facilities. Via two Floating Production Units (FPU), Alima and Likouf, production at Moho is around 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d).
The work program for the Nzombo exploration permit includes the drilling of one exploration well, which is expected to spud before the end of 2025, TotalEnergies said today.
“This award of a promising Exploration permit, with the material Nzombo prospect, reflects our continued strategy of expanding our Exploration portfolio with high impact prospects, which can be developed leveraging our existing facilities, and confirms our longstanding partnership with the Republic of the Congo,” said Kevin McLachlan, Senior Vice-President Exploration at TotalEnergies.
The French supermajor has been active in exploration efforts globally and in West and southwest Africa.
TotalEnergies “reloaded the exploration portfolio by acquiring exploration permits in the U.S. Gulf, in Malaysia, in Indonesia and Algeria” in the second quarter, CEO Patrick Pouyanné said on the Q2 earnings call in July.
TotalEnergies has recently made a large discovery in the Orange Basin offshore Namibia.
Earlier this year, a senior official said that Namibia expects TotalEnergies and Norway’s BW Energy to take final investment decisions on oil projects in late 2026.
TotalEnergies is expected to submit this summer a field development plan for the Venus project, said Maggy Shino, Petroleum Commissioner at the Namibian Ministry of Mines and Energy.
The Orange Basin extends to South African waters to the south and the majors are now looking to tap into these areas hoping to find huge resources similar to the ones in Namibian waters. However, a court in South Africa has reportedly halted a TotalEnergies-led exploration project, saying the environmental assessment for the project was “deeply flawed, failing to address key risks, legal requirements, and public participation.”
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
Guyana Begins Pivotal Election as Oil Boom Dominates Campaign
Guyana is holding general elections today that will determine who governs one of the world’s fastest-growing oil economies as ExxonMobil, Hess, and China’s CNOOC continue rapid development of the Stabroek block, which has transformed Guyana into a top emerging offshore producer.
The election pits the ruling People’s Progressive Party (PPP) against the opposition coalition, A Partnership for National Unity (APNU), with both parties pledging to maintain oil investment, but differing over revenue management and transparency. Policy direction from the next government could shape billions in future production spending and state income.
With voting stations opened on Monday morning, ABC News reported high voter turnout in coastal regions where oil revenue promises loom large.
Guyana’s oil boom has been staggering. Production has risen from near zero in 2019 to more than 600,000 barrels per day this year. Output is expected to exceed 1 million bpd by 2027 as additional floating production units come online. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts Guyana will post some of the world’s fastest GDP growth over the next decade, underpinned by hydrocarbons.
Since ExxonMobil’s first Stabroek discovery in 2015, more than 11 billion barrels of recoverable reserves have been booked, putting the country on track to become the second-largest offshore producer in the Americas after Brazil. Oil revenues now account for a growing share of the national budget, intensifying debates over whether spending should prioritize infrastructure and social programs or be constrained to safeguard long-term stability. Oil revenues have already swelled Guyana’s Natural Resource Fund, which surpassed $2.5 billion earlier this year, according to the Ministry of Finance. The fund has become a focal point in the campaign, with the opposition promising tighter oversight and the PPP arguing that rapid infrastructure investment is essential.
Investors and regional analysts are closely watching for any shift in fiscal terms or contract renegotiations. While neither major party has signaled an immediate overhaul, the outcome will set the tone for Guyana’s management of its most valuable resource at a time when global oil demand remains strong and competition for new barrels is intense.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
India Dismisses U.S. Criticism of Profiteering from Russian Oil Imports
India is not profiteering from importing Russian crude, it actually helps keep global oil prices in check, Indian Hardeep Singh Puri wrote in a column in The Hindu newspaper on Monday, amid growing criticism from the United States that the world’s third-largest crude importer is profiteering from Russia’s oil.
“India's adherence to all international norms prevented a catastrophic $200 per barrel shock,” Puri wrote in the column.
“Some critics allege that India has become a ‘laundromat’ for Russian oil. Nothing could be further from the truth,” the minister said.
Peter Navarro, White House senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, told Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures that India is “nothing but a laundromat for the Kremlin”, referring to New Delhi importing cheap Russian oil and selling the refined fuels at higher prices in Europe and Asia.
“Brahmins are profiteering at the expense of the Indian people,” Navarro told Fox News, defending the Trump Administration’s now-hiked 50% tariff on Indian goods, 25% of which is due to India’s continued imports of Russian crude.
In response to the “profiteering” claim, India’s Puri wrote that “Russian oil has never been sanctioned like Iranian or Venezuelan crude; it is under a G-7/European Union price cap system deliberately designed to keep oil flowing while capping revenues.”
India hasn’t broken any rules on Russian oil, the Indian minister said, adding that it has “stabilized markets and kept global prices from spiraling.”
“The truth is that there is no substitute for the world’s second-largest producer supplying nearly 10% of global oil,” Puri wrote.
“Those who are pointing fingers ignore this fact.”
The heated remarks over India’s role in Russian oil trade come as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a security summit in China.
Meanwhile, India’s refiners are expected to import more Russian crude in September compared to August levels as discounts are deepening amid Russia’s constrained refining capacity due to Ukrainian drone strikes, traders told Reuters last week.
India has only modestly trimmed Russian crude purchases and signals it will keep buying discounted barrels, prioritizing growth and domestic politics over U.S. pressure.
Tougher tariffs or sanctions on India risk lifting global oil prices, stoking U.S. inflation and market volatility.
China is filling some gaps, underscoring the limits of Western energy sanctions and the shifting oil order toward BRICS alignment.
Washington’s standoff with New Delhi over Russian crude imports has become a telling measure of the effectiveness and limits of Western sanctions. India has eased back slightly on purchases of Urals barrels, trimming perhaps three to five hundred thousand barrels per day, but the overall message from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has been firm. Cheap Russian oil remains too valuable to give up, and the political mood at home rewards defiance rather than retreat.
For the United States, the dilemma is clear. A threatened rise in tariffs on Indian exports to America would not just squeeze New Delhi. It would also feed directly into US inflation at a time when domestic prices are already a sensitive political issue. Indian refiners are still importing more than one and a half million barrels per day of Russian crude. If those volumes were forced out of the market overnight, replacement barrels would come at a higher cost, pushing up fuel prices worldwide. Punishment for India could quickly turn into pain for American consumers.
Events in Ukraine have only sharpened the tension. Attacks on Russian refineries and ports continue, disrupting product flows and forcing Moscow to ship more crude abroad. The market is already unsettled, and any sudden shift in Indian buying habits risks aggravating the volatility. Washington knows this. The memory of 2022, when emergency stock releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were needed to cool oil prices, still hangs heavy.
China complicates the picture. As India trims a fraction of its purchases, Chinese buyers appear to have stepped in, though their capacity to absorb further volumes remains a key question mark. Beijing has the advantage of shadow financial channels that allow it to skirt sanctions more easily. India lacks such networks, leaving its refiners more exposed to pressure. The precedent is important: during the previous Trump administration, India halted Iranian imports entirely once secondary sanctions were imposed. That history gives the United States a measure of confidence that firm action could eventually force Modi’s hand.
Critics argue that India has profited handsomely from discounted Russian oil. That is partly true, but it is far from unique. China, Turkey and Brazil have also secured cheaper barrels and products. India’s refiners have not dramatically expanded exports, since domestic demand has risen strongly and absorbed much of the supply. What has changed is the structure of global oil trade. Asian buyers now find themselves in a position to dictate terms, something that would have been unthinkable before the invasion of Ukraine.
The risk for Washington lies in overplaying its hand. Should tariffs and related sanctions be raised further and Indian purchases curtailed sharply, global prices could surge well beyond the $100 mark. Few Western leaders are prepared for that scenario. Meanwhile, Modi and Xi met in late August to improve broader relations, a sign that BRICS nations are only aligning more closely as this saga continues, at least in the oil world.
On the other hand, stepping back would send an equally powerful message: that sanctions on Russian energy have hard limits which Moscow can exploit. The balance between domestic politics, foreign policy and energy security is becoming harder to maintain.
For New Delhi, the calculation is equally fraught. Continued access to cheap crude underpins rapid economic growth and offers a shield against inflationary pressures at home. Yet reliance on Moscow leaves India open to charges of undermining the West’s wider sanctions regime. A modest reduction in volumes seems to be the compromise for now: enough to signal some flexibility, not enough to threaten growth. The trouble is that such half-measures satisfy neither side.
Energy is no longer just a commodity. It is the currency of global power, traded in barrels and measured in diplomatic concessions. India’s stance has highlighted the fragility of Western sanctions, China’s opportunism, and the uncomfortable reality that cheap Russian oil continues to find willing buyers. The next US move will carry consequences far beyond New Delhi. Whether Washington escalates or retreats, the oil market will be shaped not by technical supply balances but by the politics of defiance, nationalism and geopolitical rivalry.
According to a report by Reuters, Saudi Aramco and Iraq’s SOMO have stopped supplying crude to Nayara Energy’s refinery in Gujarat after the European Union sanctioned the Indian company in July, citing its 49% ownership by Russia’s Rosneft. People familiar with the matter said Aramco halted sales over payment complications tied to the sanctions, while Nayara received no Iraqi cargoes in August.
Kpler data show the refinery’s last non-Russian deliveries were Arab Light on July 18 and Basrah Heavy on July 29, leaving the plant reliant on Russian Urals. In August, Nayara imported an average of 242,000 barrels per day—the lowest since November 2022—against nameplate capacity of 400,000 b/d, as it cut runs and increasingly tapped “dark-fleet” tankers to keep barrels moving. All August imports were Urals; by comparison, roughly 29% of Nayara’s 2024 intake had come from the Middle East.
The EU measures aim to further restrict Kremlin oil revenues, much of which now flows via discounted sales to Asia. Nayara has asked New Delhi for help securing compliant banking channels and shipping for both crude and products. The Modi government, however, is facing intensifying U.S. pressure to curb purchases of Russian oil, including a new 50% tariff on Indian goods headed to the American market.
Despite the squeeze, Nayara’s August buying helped lift India’s total Russian crude intake by 88,000 b/d to 1.69 million b/d. A Nayara spokesperson did not respond to requests for comment. Saudi Aramco and SOMO did not immediately comment.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
Equinor’s Deimos Wildcat Comes Up Dry in Barents Sea
Equinor has declared the Deimos wildcat in the Barents Sea a dry hole after finding no commercial hydrocarbons. The exploration well 7117/4-1, in production license 1238, was drilled by the semi-submersible COSLProspector about 135 km west of the Snøhvit field and 260 km northwest of Hammerfest, in 283 m of water.
The well is the first in PL1238, awarded in March 2024 (APA 2023). Equinor operates the license with partners Vår Energi and Petoro. COSLProspector drilled to a vertical depth of 2,511 m below sea level, terminating in the Middle Eocene Torsk Formation.
Deimos targeted Eocene reservoir sands in the Torsk Formation, with a secondary objective in Paleocene sands lower in the same formation. Drilling encountered unusually high pressure in the Eocene section, prompting a technical sidetrack. The primary objective did not contain reservoir rock, and the secondary target was not achieved. Above the main target, the well intersected a 4-m sandstone interval with good reservoir quality within the Torsk Formation, but not sufficient to alter the appraisal outcome.
No formation testing was performed, but extensive data and samples were acquired. The well will be permanently plugged and abandoned.
COSLProspector—rated for harsh environments—can operate in water depths up to 1,500 m and drill to 7,500 m. The rig is under a multi-year framework that secures capacity for Equinor and Vår Energi through 2026.
Despite the dry result, Equinor noted the well contributed valuable subsurface data to refine the Barents Sea play model and future prospect evaluation.
Tesla’s European slump deepened in August as tougher competition and brand headwinds weighed on sales, with a few notable exceptions.
Registrations fell sharply across several key markets: France (-47.3% year over year while the overall market rose 2.2%), Sweden (-84% with EV sales flat and the market up 6%), Denmark (-42%), the Netherlands (-50%), and Italy (-4.4%). Norway bucked the trend—Tesla registrations rose 21.3%—but BYD surged 218% there. After seven consecutive monthly declines, Portugal saw a 28.7% Tesla uptick. In Spain, where EV subsidies can reach €7,000, Tesla deliveries jumped 161% to 1,435, yet BYD outpaced it with more than 400% growth to 1,827. Year to date in Spain, BYD sales are up 675% (14,181 units) versus Tesla’s 11.6% (9,303).
Analysts point to a tougher landscape and an aging lineup. Tesla hasn’t launched a new mass-market model since the Model Y in 2020, while Chinese entrants and legacy automakers flood showrooms with fresh EVs. Schmidt Automotive notes Europe-wide market share for Tesla in Western Europe slid to 1.7% in H1 2025 from 2.5% in 2024, calling Elon Musk’s July claim of “no issues” on volumes out of step with reality. Tesla previously blamed a production shift to a refreshed Model Y, but August data still showed steep Model Y declines in Denmark (-46.5%) and Sweden (-87%).
Brand perception is an added drag. Elon Musk’s polarizing politics—support for Donald Trump and European far-right parties—have sparked a consumer backlash. EV site Electrifying.com says over half of surveyed buyers are put off purchasing a Tesla because of Musk.
Aggressive 2023 price cuts have also depressed residual values, swelling the used market and undercutting new-car pricing power. U.K. tracker Marketcheck reported record used-Tesla sales in July (+270%) and a new low for average used Model Y prices.
Meanwhile, supply dynamics favor rivals. BYD continues to scale rapidly across Europe, capitalizing on the breadth of its lineup and sharp pricing. With competition intensifying and secondhand values under pressure, Tesla’s path back to growth in Europe likely hinges on new product, steadier pricing, and rebuilding brand appeal.
What Chevron’s Return to Venezuela Means for the Oil Market
The U.S. is recalibrating its Venezuela policy by easing oil sanctions for Chevron while maintaining pressure on President Maduro.
Chevron's expanded operations in Venezuela are expected to modestly increase global oil supply and provide crucial heavy crude to US refineries.
The move offers PDVSA a fragile chance for recovery, but a full return to pre-sanction output levels remains unlikely without broader systemic reform.
The Trump administration’s decision to ease sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector by granting Chevron a specific OFAC license to expand operations represents a cautious recalibration of US policy. Unlike past general licenses, this narrower authorization signals a more tailored approach that could eventually open pathways for other companies such as Eni, Repsol, or Reliance. At the same time, the White House is pursuing a dual strategy: loosening restrictions on oil flows while intensifying pressure on Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro himself. In a recent development, the US last week deployed three missile destroyers to international waters outside Venezuela to support counter-narcotics efforts, adding to earlier moves including a four-count superseding indictment against Maduro in the Southern District of New York for alleged narco-terrorism and a standing $50 million reward for information leading to his arrest.
For Chevron, the license is meaningful. Production could rise by about 250,000 barrels per day – a modest contribution in global terms, representing roughly 10% of the recent OPEC+ unwind and far too small to move Brent crude oil prices. Yet for Chevron’s portfolio, the impact is substantial, equating to more than 10% of its current oil-only output. Its US Gulf Coast refineries, especially Pascagoula, Mississippi, and Pasadena, Texas, are positioned to benefit directly from discounted Venezuelan heavy crude. The return of this feedstock would ease some of the pressure created by years of relying on Canadian, Mexican, and US offshore grades.
Refiners, particularly on the US Gulf Coast, are likely to welcome the reintroduction of Venezuelan heavy barrels. With global markets saturated in light sweet crude, the Orinoco Belt’s heavier grades provide much-needed diversity. While volumes in the range of 200,000–400,000 bpd will not disrupt benchmarks like Brent or WTI, they could narrow the light-heavy differential and bring down premiums for grades such as Maya or Mars, which have climbed since sanctions were imposed. In this sense, Venezuelan supply may not reshape the global market but will provide relief in a crucial, tight niche.
For PDVSA, the implications are equally important but tempered by reality. Years of mismanagement, alleged corruption, and sanctions have hollowed out the company’s operational capacity. Infrastructure is degraded, technical expertise has fled, and institutional opacity persists. Chevron’s presence – bringing capital, technical know-how, and operational discipline – offers PDVSA a lifeline. Even if the company is unlikely to revert to the traditional tax and royalty regimes of the past, renewed joint-venture activity would still inject much-needed momentum into the upstream sector. Yet a true return to pre-sanctions output levels remains improbable without broader systemic reform.
The easing of sanctions also signals a strategic adjustment in Washington. The earlier “maximum pressure” doctrine aimed at isolating Maduro has given way to a more transactional approach, one that recognizes the Chavista government’s staying power in the presidential Miraflores Palace. By carving out space for limited corporate engagement, the US is acknowledging the futility of total isolation while keeping political pressure intact. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a public reminder of Maduro’s indictment as recently as last month, underlining how narrow the opening really is.
Looking ahead, much depends on whether Chevron’s specific license is expanded, replicated for other companies, or allowed to lapse. For Chevron, it is a symbolic and material victory, enhancing both production volumes and refining economics. For PDVSA, it is a fragile chance to reestablish relevance in global markets, though the recovery will remain incremental. And for US policymakers, it is an experiment in balancing energy security with political leverage – offering relief to refiners while reminding Maduro that Washington’s patience is finite.Venezuelan barrels alone will not shift the balance of global oil markets, but they could quietly rebalance a segment where scarcity is most acute. That, coupled with Chevron’s ability to execute, ensures this opening, however narrow, will be watched closely across the industry.
By W. Schreiner Parker, Head of Emerging Markets & NOCs at Rystad Energy
