Thursday, September 11, 2025

 SPACE/COSMOS

Mysterious ‘red dots’ in early universe may be ‘black hole star’ atmospheres




The objects that astronomers at Penn State dubbed ‘universe breakers’ could be an exotic black hole atmosphere, representing a missing link in the rapid growth of supermassive black holes




Penn State

Artist’s impression of a black hole star 

image: 

Artist’s impression of a black hole star (not to scale). Mysterious tiny pinpoints of light discovered at the dawn of the universe may be giant spheres of hot gas that are so dense they look like the atmospheres of typical nuclear fusion-powered stars; however, instead of fusion, they are powered by supermassive black holes in their center that rapidly pull in matter, converting it into energy and giving off light.     

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Credit: T. Müller/A. de Graaff/Max Planck Institute for Astronomy





UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — Tiny red objects spotted by NASA's James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) are offering scientists new insights into the origins of galaxies in the universe — and may represent an entirely new class of celestial object: a black hole swallowing massive amounts of matter and spitting out light.

Using the first datasets released by the telescope in 2022, an international team of scientists including Penn State researchers discovered mysterious “little red dots.” The researchers suggested the objects may be galaxies that were as mature as our current Milky Way, which is roughly 13.6 billion years old, just 500 to 700 million years after the Big Bang.

Informally dubbed “universe breakers” by the team, the objects were originally thought to be galaxies far older than anyone expected in the infant universe — calling into question what scientists previously understood about galaxy formation.

Now, in a paper published today (Sept. 12) in the journal Astronomy & Astrophysics, the international team of astronomers and physicists, including those at Penn State, suggest that the dots may not be galaxies but an entirely new type of object: a black hole star.

They said their analysis indicates that the tiny pinpoints of light may be giant spheres of hot gas that are so dense they look like the atmospheres of typical nuclear fusion-powered stars; however, instead of fusion, they are powered by supermassive black holes in their center that rapidly pull in matter, converting it into energy and giving off light.  

“Basically, we looked at enough red dots until we saw one that had so much atmosphere that it couldn't be explained as typical stars we’d expect from a galaxy,” said Joel Leja, the Dr. Keiko Miwa Ross Mid-Career Associate Professor of Astrophysics at Penn State and co-author on the paper. “It’s an elegant answer really, because we thought it was a tiny galaxy full of many separate cold stars, but it’s actually, effectively, one gigantic, very cold star.”

Cold stars emit little light due to their low temperatures compared to normal stars, Leja explained. Most stars in the universe are low-mass, colder stars, but they are typically harder to see as they are washed out by rarer, more luminous massive stars. Astronomers identify cold stars by their glow, which is primarily in the red optical or near-infrared spectrum, wavelengths of light that are no longer visible. While the gas around supermassive black holes is typically very hot, millions of degrees Celsius, the light from these “red dot” black holes was instead dominated by very cold gas, the researchers said, similar to the atmospheres of low-mass, cold stars, based on the wavelengths of light they were giving off.

The most powerful telescope in space, JWST was designed to see the genesis of the cosmos with infrared-sensing instruments capable of detecting light that was emitted by the most ancient stars and galaxies. Essentially, the telescope allows scientists to see back in time roughly 13.5 billion years, near the beginning of the universe as we know it, Leja explained.

From the moment the telescope turned on, researchers around the world began to spot “little red dots,” objects that appeared far more massive than galaxy models predicted. At first, Leja said, he and his colleagues thought the objects were mature galaxies, which tend to get redder as the stars within them age. But the objects were too bright to be explained — the stars would need to be packed in the galaxies with impossible density.

“The night sky of such a galaxy would be dazzlingly bright,” said Bingjie Wang, now a NASA Hubble Fellow at Princeton University who worked on the paper as a postdoctoral researcher at Penn State. “If this interpretation holds, it implies that stars formed through extraordinary processes that have never been observed before.”

To better understand the mystery, the researchers needed spectra, a type of data that could provide information about how much light the objects emitted at different wavelengths. Between January and December 2024, the astronomers used nearly 60 hours of Webb time to obtain spectra from a total of 4,500 distant galaxies. It is one of the largest spectroscopic datasets yet obtained with the telescope.

In July 2024, the team spotted an object with a spectrum that indicated a huge amount of mass, making it the most extreme case of such an early and large object. The astronomers nicknamed the object in question “The Cliff,” flagging it as the most promising test case to investigate just what those “little red dots” were.

“The extreme properties of The Cliff forced us to go back to the drawing board, and come up with entirely new models,” said Anna de Graaff, a researcher for the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy and corresponding author on the paper, in a Max Planck Institute press release.

The object was so distant that its light took roughly 11.9 billion years to reach Earth. The spectra analysis of that light indicated it was actually a supermassive black hole, pulling in its surroundings at such a rate that it cocooned itself in a fiery ball of hydrogen gas. The light that Leja and his colleagues spotted was coming not from thick clusters of stars, but from one giant object.

Black holes are at the center of most galaxies, Leja explained. In some cases, those black holes are millions or even billions of times more massive than our solar system’s sun, pulling in nearby matter with such strength that it converts to energy and shines.

“No one's ever really known why or where these gigantic black holes at the center of galaxies come from,” said Leja, who is also affiliated with Penn State's Institute for Computational and Data Sciences. “These black hole stars might be the first phase of formation for the black holes that we see in galaxies today — supermassive black holes in their little infancy stage.”

He added that JWST has already found signs of high-mass black holes in the early universe. These new black hole star objects, which are essentially turbocharged mass-builders, could help explain the early evolution of the universe — and may be a welcome addition to current models. The team is planning future work to test this hypothesis by examining the density of gas and strength of these early black hole stars, Leja said.

Of course, the mysterious “little red dots” are great distance away in both time and space — and their small size makes it especially challenging to get a clear picture.

“This is the best idea we have and really the first one that fits nearly all of the data, so now we need to flesh it out more,” Leja said. “It's okay to be wrong. The universe is much weirder than we can imagine and all we can do is follow its clues. There are still big surprises out there for us.”

A full list of authors is available in the paper. The Penn State aspects of this work were funded by NASA.

 

Analyzing impact of heat from western wildfires on air pollution in the eastern US




American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)





Summary author: Walter Beckwith


According to a new study, most climate models exploring wildfires’ impacts on air quality overlook the effect of heat from a fire in one location on altering weather patterns – and in turn air quality – in locations farther afield. The authors of this study report that wildfires in the western United States are worsening air quality in the West but, paradoxically, may be improving it in the East. Over recent decades, wildfires in the western United States have become more frequent and intense, releasing vast amounts of smoke, which can greatly degrade air quality both locally and in regions far downwind. Often assumed to worsen when wildfire smoke drifts eastward from the West, fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) from wildfires has long been a major health concern in the eastern United States, potentially contributing to thousands of premature deaths each year. While this conventional wisdom has long informed air quality and fire management policies nationwide, the intense heat released by fires, which is capable of altering air temperatures, destabilizing the atmosphere, and driving strong convectionisn’t fully understood. Because wildfire heat can alter large-scale atmospheric circulation, its role in shaping distant air quality has been underappreciated. Most climate models consider only smoke emissions and not fire heat, which may explain why they tend to overestimate wildfire-driven pollution in the East.

 

Using both observational data and climate model simulations that incorporate daily heat measurements, Qihan Ma and colleagues found that, during extreme wildfires in the West, PM2.5 actually declines in the East, not only during extreme events but also throughout the fire season. This occurs because the intense heat released by large fires drives strong convection, which changes weather patterns, suppresses eastward smoke transport, and promotes rainfall that helps cleanse the air. However, while fire heat can improve air quality in the East, wildfires still worsen pollution in the West. According to Ma et al., ignoring fire heat in current climate models leads to inflated nationwide health and economic impact estimates – by about 1,200 premature deaths and $3.3 billion in damages – highlighting the need for policies that recognize its role in shaping regional air quality and environmental equity. “The differential impacts of wildfires necessitate the more appropriate allocation of resources and policy intensity for fire management and regional pollution control,” write the authors. “With greening in a warming world, the accumulation of fuels will lead to increased fire heat release when wildfires occur. It is imperative to consider fire heat in the Earth system when conducting comprehensive climate simulations and wildfire risk assessments.” In a related Perspective, Yun Qian discusses the study and the implications of its findings in greater detail.

 

Lightning to spark more wildfires in western US in coming decades



New study finds increasing hot weather and lightning could spark more fires




American Geophysical Union





WASHINGTON — Lightning will ignite more wildfires in the western United States in the coming decades as temperatures increase due to climate change, according to a new study that combined predictions for fire-friendly and lightning-friendly weather conditions.

In the western United States, lightning is responsible for more than two-thirds of the area burned by wildfires, and that number is only going to grow. Starting as early as 2031-2060, the study found essentially all of the western United States, or 98%, will see an increase in days posing a risk for lightning-started wildfires.

Areas that are already at high risk for wildfires started by lightning, such as Oregon, Idaho and Montana, are expected to see the largest increase in overall lightning days, with up to 12 more days per summer by 2060. Some areas, particularly in the U.S. Southwest, like Arizona, are expected to see a smaller increase as they will simply see less lightning.  

The new study was published in Earth’s Future, AGU’s journal for interdisciplinary research on the past, present and future of our planet and its inhabitants.

“The first step was to project lightning,” said Dmitri Kalashnikov, research scientist at the University of California Merced and lead author on the study. “The typical climate models don’t directly simulate lightning. It’s too small a process.”

To get around this, Kalashnikov created his own machine-learning models that predict lightning based on the occurrence of weather variables that are typically found in climate models, such as the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. He published the models last year in AGU’s Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

He combined his lightning models with the Fire Weather Index projections to predict the number of future days when conditions that encourage lightning and fire ignition and spread coincide.

The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index, created in 1968, measures how favorable the weather is on a given day for wildfires. It keeps track of temperature, precipitation, humidity and other factors that could impact fires. For example, higher temperatures or lower precipitation, especially prolonged, can increase the chances of a fire.

While there have been previous models created for worldwide changes in lightning, Kalashnikov and his team created models that were specifically trained for locations in the western United States and for a closer timeframe. Their models focused on the years 2030 to 2060, compared to previous models that typically only looked at the end of the century.

Using the Fire Weather Index, researchers were able to predict how the number of days that have a high risk of wildfires will change over the coming decades.

The modeling found the northwestern United States was expected to see the largest increase in both lightning days and days with high risk for wildfires. Parts of Idaho, Oregon and Montana saw the largest increase in this cloud-to-ground lightning, or lightning that strikes the ground, which can ignite flammable vegetation. However, due to lesser increases in the Fire Weather Index, these areas will see slower increases in fire risk compared to areas farther south.

The southern half of the western United States still saw an increase in potential fires started by lightning, despite seeing a lower risk for lightning increases than the northern states. The increase is still projected because the entire West saw a general increase in high-risk days for wildfires as temperatures climb and the risk of droughts and heatwaves increase. In the south, Colorado, Wyoming, Arizona and New Mexico projected the largest increases in wildfires started by lightning.

Kalashnikov said next steps could expand what the models include, like bringing in rainfall amounts to differentiate between dry lightning and wet lightning, or lightning that happens with or without rain. This could help differentiate between thunderstorms that pose a risk of wildfires versus heavy-rain producing storms that could create flash flooding.

“You can’t help but wonder what the future will look like, especially if you dig in and you realize that there’s actually a lot that we don’t understand,” Kalashnikov said.

###

Notes for journalists: 

This study is published in Earth’s Future, an open-access AGU journalView and download a pdf of the study here. Neither this press release nor the study is under embargo.  

Paper title: 

“Projections of Lightning-Ignited Wildfire Risk in the Western United States”

Authors: 

  • Dmitri Kalashnikov, Sierra Nevada Research Institute, University of California, Merced, California, USA
  • John Abatzoglou, Management of Complex Systems Department, University of California, Merced, California, USA
  • Frances Davenport, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
  • Zachary Labe, NOAA OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
  • Paul Loikith, Department of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, USA
  • Danielle Touma, Institute for Geophysics, University of Texas, Austin, Texas, USA
  • Deepti Singh, School of the Environment, Washington State University, Vancouver, Washington, USA

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NEW STUDY: Across eight Amazon countries, forests on Indigenous lands reduce spread of 27 diseases – From respiratory ailments to illnesses spread by insects, animals




The first study of its kind, led by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), gathered data from 1,733 municipalities representing more than 74% of the Amazon to find that forests on Indigenous lands are a prophylactic for diseases threat




International Union for Conservation of Nature





Belém, Brazil – Gland, Switzerland (11 SEPTEMBER 2025) — New research published today in Communications Earth and Environment, a Nature Group journal, finds that municipalities in the Amazon region closest to healthy forests on Indigenous lands face less risk from rising cases of two categories of disease: cardiovascular and respiratory diseases due to forest fires and illnesses spread when humans come into closer contact with animals and insects.  

The findings, released at the onset of forest fire season in the region and in advance of the climate negotiations (COP30) in Belem, Brazil, is the latest study in a growing body of evidence showing that Indigenous land rights are critical to tackling climate change, biodiversity loss and disease spread that, in the case of forest fires, create immediate and widespread health hazards. 

“Indigenous forests in the Amazon bring health benefits to millions,” said Paula Prist, Senior Programme Coordinator of the Forests and Grasslands Programme of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).“We have long known that the rainforest is home to medicinal plants and animals that have cured countless illnesses. This study offers new evidence that forests themselves are a balm for fire-related threats to people’s lungs and hearts, to illnesses like Chagas, malaria and spotted fevers. Ensuring Indigenous communities have strong rights over their lands is the best way to keep forests and their health benefits intact.”

Researchers examined 20 years of data on 27 health issues – 21 fire-related and six zoonotic (spread from animals to people) or vector-borne (spread from insects to people) diseases – across eight Amazonian countries: Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Suriname, Venezuela, and French Guiana. The study “Indigenous Territories Can Safeguard Human Health Depending on the Landscape Structure and Legal Status” revealed that lands managed by Indigenous Peoples consistently decrease disease incidence.

“The study comes just as forest fire season arrives in Amazon countries,” said Ana Filipa Palmeirim, visiting professor, Federal University of Pará and co-first author of the study. “These fires fill the air with thick, choking smoke, sending droves to the hospital for respiratory ailments. As daily life comes to a complete standstill, children and the elderly must stay home to avoid hospital visits. Even when fires take place in remote forest areas, winds spread the pollution far and wide, creating deadly public health emergencies.”   

Between 2001 and 2019, almost 30,000,000 cases of fire-related, zoonotic, and vector-borne diseases were reported in the Amazon rainforest. Illnesses studied include Chagas disease, malaria, hantavirus, visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis and spotted fevers. Studies have shown that deforestation is directly linked to a rise in these so-called neglected tropical diseases, which don’t have readily-available cures. Across the region, deforestation is increasing due to aggressive agriculture expansion, oil drilling and large infrastructure projects like roads and hydropower plants. 

Intentionally set forest fires have emerged as a particularly significant threat to the Amazon region and the people living there. Many fires are started by illegal actors who cut down forests without permission to do so, then burn the remaining vegetation to make room for cattle grazing or crops. Climate change impacts – such as high temperatures and decreased rainfall– increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires and the area burned.

Exposure to these fires leads to increased respiratory symptoms, heart disease, stroke, emphysema and lung cancer, as well as bronchitis, asthma, chest pain, chronic lung and heart problems. In the Amazon, forest fire smoke is directly linked to an increase in hospitalizations for these ailments. In the Brazilian Amazon alone, between 2002 and 2011, the fires were responsible for, on average, 2,906 premature deaths from cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer. 

The study released today builds on recent research findings that the Indigenous forests in the Brazilian Amazon can potentially prevent about 15 million cases of respiratory and cardiovascular infections each year by soaking up pollutants emitted by forest fires.

###

 About IUCN

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) is a global organization dedicated to conserving nature and promoting sustainable development. Founded in 1948, IUCN brings together over 1,400 member organizations, including states, government agencies, and NGOs, as well as thousands of experts worldwide. It is best known for the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, which assesses the conservation status of species globally. IUCN works across ecosystems, species, and policy frameworks to influence decision-making, strengthen protected areas, and support nature-based solutions that balance environmental, social, and economic needs while addressing biodiversity loss and climate change.

 

 

Excess HIV infections and costs associated with reductions in HIV prevention services in the US



JAMA Network Open






About The Study: 

In this economic evaluation estimating effects of the possible health care policy changes on HIV transmission, findings suggest that even modest reductions in pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage would result in thousands of avoidable HIV infections and billions of dollars of increases in net health care costs.


Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Patrick S. Sullivan, DVM, PhD, email pssulli@emory.edu.

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/

(doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.31341)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

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