Sri Lanka’s economic escape

Colombo in Srt Lanka / Shavin Peiries - Unsplash

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By bno - Mark Buckton - Taipei October 20, 2025

Sri Lanka’s recovery over the past year reads like a narrow escape rendered into a cautious, albeit unfinished success story. After the calamitous months of 2022, when foreign-exchange reserves and fuel imports evaporated and the country teetered on the brink of sovereign default, the island has staged a visible turnaround.

But the recovery remains fragile, uneven and is to some extent still dependent on external lifelines and domestic reforms.

The clearest headline is growth. After contracting sharply during the crisis, the economy expanded robustly in 2024, with GDP growth estimated at around 5%, according to the IMF and Sri Lanka’s Department of Census and Statistics (IMF Country Report No. 24/87) at the time - a figure that surprised many international forecasters and reflected a rebound in services and agriculture.

That recovery has continued into 2025: domestic demand has revived, manufacturing output has climbed, and tourism arrivals exceeded 2mn in the first eight months of the year, according to Reuters a month ago – in the process bringing much-needed foreign currency back to the island.

Authorities in Colombo have also succeeded in meeting key IMF programme conditions, and unlocking successive tranche disbursements under the $2.9bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) approved in 2023. Those funds, alongside stronger remittance inflows which rose to $6.4bn in 2024, up 12% year on year, according to Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) data, have helped rebuild official foreign-exchange buffers and stabilise the rupee after years of volatility.

“We are now in a position of relative stability,” Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe told Reuters, adding that “discipline and structural reforms” were key to avoiding backsliding.

Yet beneath the surface, macroeconomic stability remains a work in progress. Both the IMF and the World Bank’s Sri Lanka Development Update of June 2025, stress that near-term gains rest on continued fiscal consolidation and structural reform rather than a one-off rebound.

As such, the World Bank cautions that, while inflation has turned positive again and consumer demand is firming, financing pressures persist. The government in Colombo faces steep short-term refinancing needs, and public debt remains above 100% of GDP even after restructuring. The Bank warned that “growth without sustained fiscal repair would be precarious,” noting that one in four Sri Lankans remains vulnerable to poverty.

The banking sector tells a similar story of cautious improvement. The Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review 2025 highlights that profitability, capital adequacy and liquidity ratios have strengthened from crisis lows, aided by lower provisioning and improved net interest margins.

Market liquidity also improved during the first half of 2025, while non-performing loans (NPLs), which peaked at 13% in 2023, have fallen to below 9%, helped by restructuring and recovery. The CBSL’s Banking Soundness Index shows a more stable system than at any time since 2021.

But vulnerabilities remain. Local banks’ exposure to government securities, which account for nearly 40% of total assets, leaves them highly sensitive to fiscal risks. Lending growth, particularly to small and medium enterprises, remains subdued. The IMF’s second review of August 2025, urged Colombo to strengthen banking supervision and diversify capital markets to reduce systemic risk. “The scars of 2022 haven’t fully healed,” one senior banker reportedly told Reuters. “The sector is stronger, but still wary.”

Foreign-exchange reserves – a key aspect of the economy for an import-dependent island - have recovered from near-zero levels in 2022 to roughly $5bn by mid-2025, according to CBSL monthly balance reports. This rebound reflects IMF disbursements, improved remittances, and resumed access to international capital markets following debt restructuring with China, India and Paris Club creditors. The improvement has reduced the acute risk of import stoppages that once led to nationwide fuel queues and the much-hated rolling blackouts.

However, reserves remain modest relative to import requirements, covering just over three months of imports, according to IMF data, and any deterioration in the balance of payments could again prove destabilising. Fiscal consolidation, particularly through improved tax collection, remains vital. The government’s goal of raising tax revenue to 15% of GDP by 2026 (from 9.1% in 2023) will be crucial to maintaining debt sustainability, according to the Finance Ministry’s 2025 Budget Statement.

To this end, the energy sector encapsulates both the progress and fragility of the recovery. The Ministry of Power and Energy in Sri Lanka reported that total electricity generation reached approximately 17,364 GWh in 2024, with renewables - primarily hydro and solar - accounting for nearly 48%. The Ceylon Electricity Board’s (CEB) Long-Term Generation Expansion Plan (2024–2043) outlines a shift towards renewables, with 70% of generation expected to come from non-fossil sources by 2030.

Yet the grid’s weaknesses were exposed again in early 2025 when a nationwide blackout plunged the island into darkness for nearly 48 hours, Reuters reported at the time. The outage underscored the urgent need to modernise transmission systems and improve grid resilience. The government has since pledged a $200mn grid modernisation plan, partly financed by the Asian Development Bank, but implementation has lagged.

Another issue is that for ordinary Sri Lankans, the recovery’s texture remains uneven. Inflation, which had soared above 70% in 2022, has now stabilised at around 4–5%, according to CBSL’s September 2025 inflation report. Food and fuel prices have moderated, and the Central Bank has cautiously reduced policy rates from 11% to 9% to spur consumption. Yet fiscal consolidation has come with painful trade-offs. Increases in VAT (to 18%) and cuts to fuel and electricity subsidies have disproportionately affected lower-income households. The World Bank estimates that national poverty, while improving, remains above the 25% mark, underscoring the recovery’s social fragility.

The government of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake faces a delicate balancing act: maintaining fiscal discipline without igniting social unrest ahead of elections expected in 2026. Investor confidence has strengthened with Fitch Ratings signalling potential upgrades if reform momentum continues, but the risk of populist policy reversals looms large.

So where does Sri Lanka go from here? The optimistic path is clear: maintain IMF-backed fiscal discipline, broaden the tax base, accelerate investment in renewable energy and digital infrastructure, and strengthen social safety nets to ensure inclusive growth. But the darker scenario of reform fatigue, renewed external shocks, or pre-election spending unravelling much of what has been rebuilt, is an ever present danger.

Hong Kong cargo plane crash: authorities defend safety procedures amid ongoing probe

Al Reile Dela Torre - Unsplash


By bno - Taipei Office October 20, 2025

Hong Kong airport and rescue authorities have reaffirmed their confidence in the airport’s safety protocols after a cargo plane crashed into the sea early on October 20, killing two, the BBC reports.

The incident occurred at around 03:50 local time during one of the airport’s busiest cargo flight periods. The Hong Kong International Airport, the world’s busiest air cargo hub in 2024, handled about 429,000 tonnes of cargo in September alone.

According to officials, the cargo aircraft veered off Runway 07L upon landing, broke through the perimeter fence and collided with a patrol car positioned outside the runway, pushing it into the sea. The two security personnel in the vehicle were killed. The aircraft then split into two sections, but all four crew members escaped after breaking open the door and were rescued from the water.

Authorities stated that illuminated taxiway signs were functioning correctly and that the instructions provided to the plane were accurate the BBC reported. They also confirmed that the runway conditions were safe for operation at the time. The north runway remains closed pending safety assessments, while other runways continue to operate normally.

Investigators are searching for the aircraft’s black boxes to determine the cause of the crash. Police have not ruled out the possibility of a criminal investigation.

In Hong Kong, the Transport and Logistics Bureau expressed deep concern over the accident and extended condolences to the victims’ families. Representatives from the airline and the aircraft’s owner are travelling to Hong Kong to assist in the recovery and removal of the wreckage.

An investigation is ongoing, with officials maintaining that the airport was not at fault.

China’s solid-state battery breakthrough challenges the future of petrol-powered cars

A chinese breakthrough in battery technology will double the range of EVs and even out-distsance conversional petrol-fuelled cars. / bne IntelliNews

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By bne IntelliNews October 19, 2025

Chinese researchers have announced a breakthrough in solid-state battery technology that could accelerate the global shift away from internal combustion engines, with a new design that more than doubles the range of current electric vehicles and addresses long-standing limitations in safety, durability and efficiency.

The development, detailed in a report by The China Academy, marks what researchers describe as a “systems-level leap” in all-solid-state lithium metal batteries, a next-generation technology long seen as the holy grail for electric transport.

“This isn’t just incremental progress. It’s a systems-level leap that could accelerate the end of the internal combustion engine—not just in China, but globally,” the Academy said.

The newly developed batteries promise to double the range of batter-powered cars and go beyond the range of regular petrol-fuelled cars. The range of the new batter is over 1,000 km on a single charge, compared to approximately 500km in today’s most advanced electric vehicles and 600–800km for conventional petrol-powered cars.

In practical terms, that would allow a vehicle to travel from Shenzhen to Changsha, Paris to Milan, or Los Angeles to San Francisco and back without recharging—redefining long-distance travel for EVs.

The breakthrough addresses a persistent engineering problems with using lithium: the unstable interface between brittle ceramic electrolytes and soft lithium metal anodes, which has historically led to poor ion transport and short battery life.

Chinese labs have solved this through three distinct innovations:

1. A “self-healing” iodine-based interface, developed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, which migrates during use to seal microscopic gaps and maintain continuous ion flow.
2. A flexible polymer skeleton, engineered by the Institute of Metals at CAS, which improves stretchability and allows the battery to withstand over 20,000 bends—boosting energy density by 86%.
3. A fluorine-reinforced electrolyte, designed at Tsinghua University, capable of withstanding high voltages, extreme temperatures up to 120°C, and even needle puncture tests, without igniting—addressing key concerns around battery safety.

Together, these advances offer a solution to what the article calls the “holy trinity” of battery design: safety, energy density, and durability.

If scaled successfully, China’s solid-state battery technology could upend the global automotive industry, particularly as governments phase out internal combustion engines and consumers demand longer-range, safer, and faster-charging electric vehicles. The developments also reinforce China’s strategic lead in battery manufacturing and EV supply chains—a priority sector under its industrial policies, including Made in China 2025.

While commercial deployment timelines remain uncertain, the implications are already prompting attention across the global automotive and energy sectors. “The future of transport isn’t just electric. It’s solid-state. And it’s being built in China,” the report concludes.

Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia researchers observe significant reduction in diagnosis of food allergies following expert guidelines encouraging early peanut exposure

Diagnosis of anaphylactic food allergy decreased after landmark LEAP study and expert guidelines encouraging early peanut introduction

Children's Hospital of Philadelphia

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Philadelphia, October 20, 2025 – Peanuts represent one of the most common causes of immunoglobulin E (IgE)-mediated, or anaphylactic, food allergies in children, yet a landmark study found that early introduction of peanut to infants may lower their risk of developing this allergy. Now, a new study from researchers from Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP) has shown that the rates of diagnosis of peanut and other IgE-mediated food allergies have declined since the adoption of guidelines encouraging early introduction practices.

The findings, published today in the journal Pediatrics, highlight how landmark research has been translated into a successful public health campaign.

IgE-mediated food allergies affect about 4% of children, causing a child’s immune system to react abnormally when exposed to one or more foods, such as milk, egg, wheat, peanut, or other nuts. Reactions are immediate, causing symptoms that may include hives, swelling, difficulty breathing and vomiting.

Researchers and clinicians have speculated that IgE-mediated food allergies can be prevented through early-life exposure of food antigens in the gut. A landmark study supportive of this paradigm was the 2015 Learning Early About Peanut Allergy (LEAP) trial, which demonstrated that early exposure of peanut in 4-11 month old infants with severe eczema or egg allergy reduced peanut allergy risk by 81%. Subsequent studies have shown that this protective effect is sustained beyond early childhood.

The findings of the LEAP trial prompted major pediatric and allergy and immunology organizations to develop consensus guidelines to put these findings into practice. Released in 2015 and 2017, these guidelines initially focused on children thought to be at high risk of food allergy. In 2021, new guidelines support introduction of peanut, egg and other major food allergens at 4-6 months in all children without a history of prior reaction.

“Everyone has been wondering whether these landmark public health interventions have had an impact on reducing rates of IgE-mediated food allergies in the United States,” said the study’s first author Stanislaw Gabryszewski, MD, PhD, an attending physician in the Division of Allergy and Immunology and a core faculty member in the Clinical Futures Center of Emphasis at CHOP. “We now have data that suggest that the effect of this landmark public health intervention is occurring.”

Using electronic health record data from the multi-state, primary care-based American Academy of Pediatrics Comparative Effectiveness Research through Collaborative Electronic Reporting (CER2) network, the researchers compared rates of food allergy diagnosis at different time periods, prior to the establishment of early introduction guidelines as well as post-guidelines and post-addendum guidelines.

The study found significant reductions in the prevalence of peanut IgE-mediated food allergy (from 0.79% to 0.45% of the study population) and any IgE-mediated food allergy (1.46% to 0.93% of the population) from the time before the guidelines to after the addendum guidelines were introduced. Peanut transitioned from the topmost to second most common food allergen post-guidelines, surpassed by egg. The authors estimate that for about every 200 infants exposed to food allergens early in life, one child would have been prevented from developing food allergy.

While the early introduction strategy does not completely eliminate peanut and other IgE-mediated food allergies, the reduction in food allergy diagnosis rates is a promising finding that underscores ongoing public health efforts to disseminate early introduction practices.

“Our findings have relevance from those of us who treat patients to those caring for infants, and more awareness, education and advocacy could further increase the positive results we observed in this study,” said senior study author David Hill, MD, PhD, an attending physician with the Division of Allergy and Immunology. “Future studies could potentially explore specific feeding practices that help us better understand the timing, frequency and dose of foods that optimize protection against food allergies.”

This study was supported by the National Institutes of Health grants T32HD043021, K08AI182477 and R01HL162715, the Hartwell Foundation, the American Academy of Allergy Asthma and Immunology, the American Partnership for Eosinophilic Disorders, and the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia Research Institute. Additional infrastructure funding was provided by the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) under UA6MC15585 - National Research Network to Improve Children’s Health and U5DMC39344 - Pediatric Research Network Program.

This study was also funded by Food Allergy Fund, an organization aimed at funding research focused on the underlying causes of food allergies and improved treatments for millions of people living with food allergies.

Gabryszewski et al, “Guidelines for Early Food Introduction and Patterns of Food Allergy.” Am Pediatrics. Online October 20, 2025. DOI: 10.1542/peds.2024-070516.

About Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia:  

A non-profit, charitable organization, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia was founded in 1855 as the nation’s first pediatric hospital. Through its long-standing commitment to providing exceptional patient care, training new generations of pediatric healthcare professionals, and pioneering major research initiatives, the hospital has fostered many discoveries that have benefited children worldwide. Its pediatric research program is among the largest in the country. The institution has a well-established history of providing advanced pediatric care close to home through its CHOP Care Network, which includes more than 50 primary care practices, specialty care and surgical centers, urgent care centers, and community hospital alliances throughout Pennsylvania and New Jersey. CHOP also operates the Middleman Family Pavilion and its dedicated pediatric emergency department in King of Prussia, the Behavioral Health and Crisis Center (including a 24/7 Crisis Response Center) and the Center for Advanced Behavioral Healthcare, a mental health outpatient facility. Its unique family-centered care and public service programs have brought Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia recognition as a leading advocate for children and adolescents. For more information, visit https://www.chop.edu.

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Journal

PEDIATRICS

DOI

10.1542/peds.2024-070516 

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Guidelines for Early Food Introduction and Patterns of Food Allergy

Article Publication Date

20-Oct-2025

 

Do animals fall for optical illusions? What fish and birds can teach us about perception

Frontiers

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image: 

The famous Ebbinghaus illusion, named for its discoverer, the German psychologist Hermann Ebbinghaus (1850–1909). Despite appearances, the two orange circles are the same size.

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Credit: Wikimedia Commons, public domain https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bc/Mond-vergleich.svg

Have you ever looked at two circles of exactly the same size and sworn one was larger? If so, your eyes have been tricked by the Ebbinghaus illusion, a classic example of how context can shape what we see. Place a circle among other smaller circles, and it seems bigger; place it among larger ones, and it shrinks before our eyes. This illusion fascinates psychologists because it reveals that perception is not a mirror of the outside world but a clever construction of the brain.

But here is the question that inspired our study: do other animals fall for the same tricks? If a tiny fish or a bird perceives the illusion, what does that tell us about the way they see and interpret their surroundings?

Illusions are more than curiosities. They are powerful tools to understand how brains assemble sensory information. When perception goes ‘wrong’, it highlights the shortcuts and strategies the brain uses to make sense of complex environments.

In humans, the Ebbinghaus illusion is linked to global processing: the tendency to interpret a scene as a whole before focusing on details. But not all animals live in the same sensory world we do. By testing illusions across species, we can ask whether shared patterns point to deep evolutionary roots, or whether differences reveal adaptations to particular ecological niches. For example, global processing may have evolved in species that need to rapidly integrate complex scenes—such as detecting predators or evaluating group size—while local processing may be favored in species that rely on precise object recognition, like picking out seeds or prey items against a cluttered background.

Fish versus birds: two worlds of vision

To explore this, we turned to two very different species: the guppy (Poecilia reticulata) and the ring dove (Streptopelia risoria).

Guppies inhabit shallow tropical streams full of flickering light, dense vegetation, and unpredictable predators. Their survival depends on rapid decisions: choosing mates, joining shoals, and escaping threats. In such a cluttered world, being able to judge relative size at a glance can be crucial.

Ring doves, by contrast, are terrestrial granivores. They spend much of their time pecking at small seeds scattered on the ground. Precision and attention to fine detail could matter more than analyzing the whole scene. Moreover, their binocular vision allows them to make accurate judgments of distance and size in a very different context.

By placing these species side by side, we asked: does the same illusion deceive both a fish darting through water and a bird searching the ground?

Circles of deception

Our experiments used food as the central ‘circle’. For guppies, flakes of food were placed within arrays of smaller or larger surrounding circles. For doves, millet seeds were presented in similar arrangements.

The results were striking: Guppies consistently fell for the illusion. When food was surrounded by smaller circles, the guppies chose it more often, as if it really was larger. Their perception closely mirrored that of humans. Ring doves, however, told a different story. At the group level, they showed no clear susceptibility to the illusion. Some individuals behaved as humans did, others in the opposite way, and many seemed unaffected altogether. This variability suggests that doves may rely on different perceptual strategies; more local, detail-oriented, and less swayed by surrounding context.

Why does it matter?

At first glance, it might seem like just an amusing trick of vision. But these findings speak to deeper questions in evolutionary biology and comparative cognition: perception is not about accuracy for its own sake, it is about what works in a given environment. For guppies, integrating the whole scene may help them navigate visually complex streams, spot larger mates, or quickly gauge relative sizes in a shoal. For doves, tuned to picking out seeds against a messy background, focusing on absolute size and local details may perhaps be more helpful.

The study also reminds us that variation within a species can be as revealing as differences between species. The doves’ mixed responses suggest that individual experience or innate bias can strongly shape how an animal interprets illusions. Just like in humans, where some people are strongly fooled by illusions and others hardly at all, animal perception is not uniform.

A window into other minds

By comparing species as different as fish and birds, we get a glimpse of the extraordinary diversity of perceptual worlds. The Ebbinghaus illusion is only one of many tools researchers use to explore these worlds, but it highlights a key point: what we see is not always what is there.

For humans, this is a reminder of the brain’s creative shortcuts. For animals, it shows how ecological pressures sculpt perception in ways that fit each species’ lifestyle. And for science, it opens a window onto the evolutionary origins of cognition itself. Studying illusions across species helps us understand not only how animals see but also how perception evolves to meet the challenges of life on Earth.

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Journal

Frontiers in Psychology

DOI

10.3389/fpsyg.2025.1653695 

Method of Research

Commentary/editorial

Subject of Research

Animals

Article Title

Circles of deception: the Ebbinghaus illusion from fish to birds

Article Publication Date

20-Oct-2025

Nearly half of World Heritage sites face climate threats, warns nature conservation group

117 out of 271 heritage areas are at high or very high risk; International Union for Conservation of Nature stresses the need for urgent and stronger climate action

Yesim Yuksel and Merve Berker |17.10.2025 - TRT/AA



ISTANBUL / ANKARA

Nearly half of the world’s natural and cultural World Heritage sites are now at high or very high risk due to climate change, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)’s recent World Heritage Outlook 4 report, which calls for stronger global climate action to protect these irreplaceable ecosystems.

The report evaluated 271 sites designated by UNESCO for their natural and cultural significance and found that 117, or about 43%, face “high” or “very high” levels of threat from climate change.

The figure represents a sharp increase compared to 2020, when 33% of sites were under such risk, and 2017, when the rate stood at 27%.

According to IUCN, climate change remains not only the greatest danger to heritage sites but also the fastest-rising one.

Between 2020 and 2025 alone, the number of sites under severe threat from climate impacts grew by 31.

Tim Badman, director of the IUCN's World Heritage and Culture Programme, told Anadolu that the report's ratings serve as a projection of each site's conservation outlook, and the increase in affected areas over the last decade suggests an urgent need for greater climate action.

He noted that changes in seasonal flooding patterns are already altering hydrology and ecosystems, marine heatwaves are leading to coral bleaching, and rising sea levels are transforming sedimentation and salinity dynamics.

Melting glaciers, he said, are changing water flows and increasing the risk of landslides, while shifting rainfall patterns are causing desertification in some regions and flooding in others.

The report found that sites hosting significant biodiversity are suffering the greatest losses.

In 2014, 71% of these areas were categorized as being in good or low-risk condition, compared to only 52% in 2025, which is the lowest level recorded so far.

The overall conservation outlook also continues to deteriorate.

In 2014, 63% of sites had a positive outlook, while the latest assessment shows a decline to 57%.

IUCN warned that this represents a major setback in global biodiversity protection.

Invasive species, diseases pose second-most serious global threat

The report said invasive species and diseases are emerging as the second most serious global threats.

The number of sites reporting high or very high threats from pathogens increased from two in 2020 to 19 in 2025, while invasive species continued to spread rapidly.

Tourism, urban development, and industrial expansion also remain key pressures.

Since 2020, the number of heritage sites facing high threats from tourism activities has risen by 4%, residential areas by 5%, and commercial or industrial areas by 3%.

The IUCN analysis categorized the 271 sites into four groups as “good,” “good with some concerns,” “significant concern,” and “critical.”

According to the report, Türkiye’s Pamukkale is rated as “good with some concerns,” while Goreme National Park in Cappadocia has been downgraded to “significant concern.”

Badman said this downgrade is likely linked to high visitor numbers and increasing vehicle traffic in the region.

In addition to identifying risks, the report evaluated local actions taken against climate threats.

It found that 42% of sites are already implementing effective or highly effective adaptation measures.

However, Badman said more effort is needed both locally and globally to strengthen resilience and mitigation.

Regional differences in climate change

In addition, he explained that IUCN’s latest report, covering 2014, 2017, 2020, and 2025, shows climate-related impacts becoming increasingly widespread and severe.

While climate change is the most common global threat, regional differences persist.

In Africa, the main pressures include poaching, deforestation, and mining, while in South America, tourism-related activities have overtaken livestock farming as the dominant threat.

Badman emphasized that the findings should be taken as a warning for policymakers.

He said countries must strengthen their emission reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement and set ambitious targets to keep global warming within 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.

He also pointed to UNESCO’s Climate Action Policy for World Heritage as an essential framework to guide global and site-level efforts.

The document highlights adaptation, mitigation, innovation, and research as key components of sustainable heritage conservation.

IUCN committed to supporting local conservation efforts

Despite the alarming trends, IUCN noted several success stories in local conservation.

Community-based and Indigenous-led initiatives in areas such as the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in Mexico and Tubbataha Reefs Natural Park in the Philippines were cited as positive examples of climate adaptation and resource protection.

Badman said the IUCN is committed to supporting such collaborative approaches but warned that the scale of current action is still far from adequate.

He described the decade-long increase in climate-affected heritage sites as a clear signal that urgent, coordinated measures are needed.

According to IUCN, natural World Heritage sites play a vital role in carbon storage, water regulation, and disaster prevention.

Losing them to climate change, it said, would have profound consequences for both the environment and human well-being.

“The growing number of sites at high risk is an unmistakable call for urgent and stronger climate action,” the report concluded.

“World Heritage sites are of outstanding universal value. Protecting them is protecting our planet’s natural legacy.”