Sunday, December 21, 2025

 

Source: Originally published by Z. Feel free to share widely.

If we take a bird’s-eye view of Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro—where the largest share of the Serbian people lives today—we see a strikingly similar structure: three small economies neatly integrated into a semi-peripheral role—stable enough to service debt and function as markets, yet insufficiently developed for people to live off their own work without loans, relatives in the diaspora, and the routines of seasonal survival.

The common denominator is almost shameful in its simplicity: these societies are structured so that a thin stratum of political-business elites and capital owners can preserve, consolidate, and expand their positions, while the majority lives in permanent insecurity—caught between precarious contracts, overpriced housing whose purchase pushes them into clientelist dependence on those who can “make sure” the monthly loan instalment gets paid, comprador political parties, and the persistent belief that salvation lies somewhere else.

Instead of a serious public debate about who appropriates the fruits of labour and what a fairer economic order might look like, people are fed myths about “foreign investment,” the “European path,” and “stability,” while hollow speeches about “statehood” are endlessly rehearsed.

Serbia cannot be pacified

In Serbia, that exhaustion is increasingly taking the form of a student-led—and broader popular—uprising against the technocratic order of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS): against a system that grounds its power in a mix of statistical sleight of hand, public relations, and projects designed for someone else’s capital, while persistently underestimating the intelligence and dignity of its own citizens.

The SNS regime itself, which presents as “national” and “state-building,” is in fact the clearest evidence that an authentic Serbian politics has long since disappeared from Belgrade. It operates as the local exponent of a knot of corporate, imperial, and intelligence interests tied together in the capital; as a result, the fate of the people, of Kosovo, and of the wider space inhabited by Serbs is increasingly viewed through the lens of other people’s agendas and domestic marketing needs.

Figures about growth, debt, and inflation are raised like a decorative wall around the ruling class, yet the public mood suggests something else: people still endure far more than they truly accept. That is why what began as resistance to “economic experts” is ever more often turning into resistance to the entire political framework—one that has long ceased to function as a system of governance and has been reduced to bare, endlessly repeated propaganda about an economic miracle that never quite arrives.

Republika Srpska: Between Self-Humiliation and Humiliation

In Republika Srpska—presented here as part of a UN-mandated territory, the Dayton-era Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the largest share of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Serbs live (31 percent of their total population)—the response to the same economic misery is not revolt but lethargy. The politics of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (which has nothing in common with social democracy except its name) and its long-time leader Milorad Dodik not only exploits this lethargy; it actively manufactures it: the less people trust that change is possible, the easier it is to rule by combining periodic chauvinistic outbursts against Bosnian Muslims—“Turks”—and other designated internal enemies, with gestures of auto-colonial deference and a simulated sovereigntism, reinforced by symbolic alliances with a whole spectrum of right-wing obscurantists across the world, from Washington to Budapest. The miserable turnout—only 31 percent—in the recent RS presidential elections imposed by the colonial administration is not merely a statistic; it is a diagnosis: a people formally invited to decide have, in practice, been convinced that everything has already been decided.

Montenegro’s Double Catastrophe  

In Montenegro, meanwhile, the overall social and economic crisis is refracted through a false duel between two losing affiliations: one, a chauvinistic Dukljan–Montenegrin camp, openly anti-Serb and provincially pro-Western, which has “kidnapped” and reserved for itself the antifascist legacy of the Second World War People’s Liberation Struggle; and the other, a Ravna Gora–Chetnik camp, which turns its historical defeat and moral collapse into a kitsch cult and political impotence.

Seeking shelter from the antiserbian Dukljan recoding of Montenegrin history and identity, the Serbian community has largely—and tragically—imprisoned itself in an artificially stoked Ravna Gora nostalgia which, by affirming collaboration with an occupying power on the model of the Second World War, cancels out any serious chance for a sober, modern, and emancipatory Serbian politics.


The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Place of Meaningless Politics  

It should be stated plainly that Serbs in the larger Bosnian-Herzegovinian entity – the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (a composite, decentralized structure consisting of ten Bosniak, Croat, and mixed Bosniak–Croat cantons) – are most often reduced to two equally degrading roles. On the one hand, those who are politically active are largely turned into a client base of the Dodik’s SNSD: a kind of “diaspora” of Republika Srpska and Serbia inside their own birthplace, and as such they are pushed to the limits of political instrumentalization—most often as bargaining chips in arrangements with the Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH), led by figures who publicly posture as guardians of a Croatian neo-nazi tradition. On the other hand, those who do not fit into that framework often drift through life in anonymity and self-erasure, accepting Bosniak-nationalist and so-called “pro-Bosnian” narratives about themselves as the only permitted form of social existence. These narratives, as a rule, cast the Serbian people as intruders in their own country—an anomaly in Bosnian history—which, however absurd, becomes for many the only viable mode of survival.

Their political representatives are, to a significant extent, little more than individuals who opportunistically put their names and surnames into circulation: they say what the Bosniak majority wants to hear, rather than what the people they supposedly represent actually think, feel, and live through.


Serbs in Croatia: Guilty for Their Leftist Partisan Legacy  

Serbs in Croatia today make up a minority of just over three percent of the population, demographically decimated by war, emigration, and assimilation, yet politically and symbolically subjected to an almost monstrous demonization by the Croatian right—with the tacit or half-hearted support of the ruling HDZ and a significant segment of the Roman Catholic Church. Though small in number, they remain a constant target of hate speech, revisionist narratives, and structural discrimination precisely because they carry the emancipatory legacy of the Second World War: the uprising against the Ustaša order and the idea of an antifascist Croatia. The fact that Serbs, together with Croatian antifascists, formed the backbone of resistance and the foundation of a different vision of Croatia makes them especially intolerable to the radical right today. They are not attacked as a real “threat”—they are, after all, already on the edge of disappearance—but as a living reminder that Croatian society contains a better, fairer, and more humane potential whose political articulation is meant to be suppressed.

Kosovo: Between Belgrade’s Compradors and Albanian Chauvinism

The position of Serbs in Kosovo today is shaped by a double pressure: on the one hand, Belgrade’s ongoing exploitation of their insecurity as a tool for masking the true nature of the regime in Belgrade; on the other, real fear and day-to-day tensions in their encounters with Albanian chauvinism and institutional coercion. Serbs—especially in the north—have for years lived in an atmosphere of recurring crisis: withdrawal from Kosovo’s institutions, election boycotts, the installation of mayors without genuine legitimacy, clashes with the police, and the closure of “parallel” Serbian institutions in coordination with the SNS regime—developments which, as both the OSCE and the EU have noted, have further undermined their access to salaries, pensions, and basic services.


It is precisely from this composite experience—revolt in Serbia as a hub of a broader system of managed dependence, lethargy in Republika Srpska, hollow elections in Montenegro, clientelization and self-erasure in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, demonization in Croatia, and the double pressure in Kosovo—that we should begin if we want to understand how the Serbian people are entering a multipolar world, and what any politics of emancipation could realistically mean under such conditions.

What could such a politics actually be?

A Croatian Member of the European Parliament, Tomislav Sokol, recently wrote—with a dose of contempt and racism—that “Serbian nationalism is forged from a mixture of Saint-Sava mythology and communist dogmas.” Yet if we strip that claim of its day-to-day political malice and read it seriously, it is precisely in that junction that one might discern the outline of a different, more elevated horizon—provided we also draw a clear line of distance both from “Svetosavlje” as seen through the Ljotićite lens and other currents of Serbia’s radical and neo-Nazi right, and from rigid Stalinist and Stalinist-adjacent understandings of communism. If we return the concept of Svetosavlje to its source, it becomes clear that the figure of Saint Sava—in its original historical and traditional meaning—can only be associated with universal Orthodoxy and with a Christian ethos of love, openness, and compassion toward every human being.

In the same way, the re-examination of communism that matters here cannot be a renewed cult of the state and the party, but rather a hunger for freedom and democracy—a striving for a society without the exploitation of human beings by human beings—along the lines recalled by liberation theology: sin begins as a “no” addressed to one’s neighbour, as self-deification that turns private interest into an idol, and then produces an order in which “the princes of this world” direct economic, cultural, and aesthetic currents in ways that inevitably oppress the poor and the dispossessed. (Enrique Dussel, Beyond Philosophy: Ethics, History, Marxism, and Liberation Theology, ed. Eduardo Mendieta (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2003).)

A politics of emancipation for Serbs in a multipolar world crowded with predators and scavengers could—and must—mean a break with those idols, whether they come in the form of national chauvinism, Stalinist rigidity, or neoliberal servility, and a persistent “yes” addressed to one’s neighbour: the building of communities that defend both the survival of the people and the dignity of every human being—without hatred toward others and without submission to the logics of capital, empire, and domestic corruption.

In that sense, it is no accident that democracy proves to be modern humanity’s most important achievement—not as a mere ritual of turnout in elections that have already been stolen in advance, but as the hard-won, ongoing possibility for ordinary people to control power, replace it, and constrain it. Democracy has never been a gift: from the earliest citizens’ assemblies, through the bourgeois revolutions, the labour and trade-union movements, antifascist struggle, and decolonization, it has always arrived as the outcome of conflict with those who believed they had the right to decide on behalf of everyone. That is why it still makes sense to speak of democracy today only if we understand that it must be continually conquered—against the arbitrariness of the state, against the diktat of capital, against every ideology that would suspend, once and for all, the people’s capacity to say “no.”

Without that historical memory, invocations of democracy collapse into an empty formula—no less false on the lips of Brussels bureaucrats than on the lips of domestic authoritarian “patriots.” For all the groups of Serbs listed here—those in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Croatia, and Kosovo—this kind of democracy, a “democracy of unceasing struggle,” is not merely one possible solution; it is the only framework capable of bringing them into a shared political story at all. It is the only point of convergence that does not demand that anyone renounce their identity, their homeland, or their historical experience, but instead asks for a minimum that constitutes human and political decency: that power be removable, accountable to citizens, that the law apply equally to all, and that the exploitation of human beings by human beings—and of peoples by peoples—be unacceptable.

And for that very reason, it is not a project that matters only for Serbs. A consistent, inclusive democracy—one that defends their right to survive and to have a voice—would at the same time strengthen everyone who lives with them and around them—Bosniaks, Croats, Albanians, Montenegrins, and others—because it offers the only realistic exit from the vicious circle of ethnic hierarchies and colonial tutelage.

A Major Rally That Deserves Global Attention

 On 21 December, Novi Pazar—Serbia’s largest city with a Bosniak/Muslim majority—is set to host a major anti-government protest initiated by students of the State University in Novi Pazar, with students announced to be coming from Belgrade, Novi Sad, Kragujevac, and Niš as well. This is more than another date on the protest calendar: it is a public display of solidarity that cuts across the lines on which the region’s rulers have long tried to keep young people divided.

Its message is regional and unmistakable: the future will not be built by ethnic gatekeepers, clientelist parties, or imported “stability,” but by citizens who refuse to be managed as competing tribes. In that sense, the gathering in Novi Pazar also renews an old emancipatory maxim from early twentieth-century Serbian political thought—“The Balkans for the Balkan peoples”—not as a slogan of exclusion, but as a call for dignity, self-government, and mutual recognition in a space too often treated as someone else’s chessboard.

What Germans Think About AI

Source: Originally published by Z. Feel free to share widely.

In a recent AI study (November 2025), slightly more than 1,000 Germans were asked about artificial intelligence (AI), online security, deepfakes and democracy.

Overall, there is a strong increase in the uptake of AI in Germany. Roughly two out of three Germans use AI (65%) in one way or another. Given that ChatGPT started to appear in Germany around November 2022, the question “Have you already used AI?” shows a rapid rise. 

About half a year after the launch of ChatGPT, 23% of Germans said “yes”. By October 2023, the number had increased to 37%; by October 2024, it was 53%; and by October 2025, it had reached 65%.

Meanwhile, slightly more men than women are using AI. However, AI use appears to be related to age more than to gender. In other words, younger Germans are using AI more than older Germans – no surprise here. To the question “Have you ever tried or used an AI application?”, 67% of men said yes, while 63% of women said that they had used AI.

The gap is vastly greater when it comes to age. In 2025, 91% of 16- to 29-year-olds said they had used AI. For the 30- to 49-year-old cohort, the number is still 80%, while for 50- to 64-year-old Germans, it drops to 63%. Once people are 65 and older, the use of AI declines to about 35%.

Meanwhile, almost every second individual uses AI several times a week. That was the answer to the question “How often do you use AI?” Twelve per-cent said daily, 33% said several times a week, and 36% said once or twice per month. Among younger Germans, these numbers – as expected – are higher. In total, 55% of all 16- to 29-year-olds use AI frequently.

When it comes to using AI at work or privately, a clear 1/3 to 2/3 gap emerges. In other words, 61% use AI for private purposes, while only 32% use AI for professional or work-related purposes, including school, education, and studying. AI is thus used more at home than outside the home in Germany.

When asked whether they use paid AI accounts, 88% said they do not use “paid-for” accounts in the private sphere. This number declines to 67% when it comes to work-related use.

Meanwhile, the mobile phone or smartphone has overtaken laptops. When asked which device or devices they use for AI, the smartphone is the preferred choice for 82%, while PCs or laptops are used by 71%. Devices such as smart speakers (e.g., Amazon’s Alexa) and smartwatches are used by a meager 4% each.

Beyond all this, ChatGPT dominates AI usage in Germany. Eighty-five percent use ChatGPT, followed by Gemini (33%), Copilot (26%), DeepL (20%), Meta AI (18%), Google AI (14%), Bing Search (10%), Canva AI (8%), Perplexity (7%), DeepSeek (4%), Claude AI (3%), Grok (3%), Le Chat (1%), and others (4%).

On the question “What is AI used for?”, 72% said they use AI when searching for information. Forty-three percent said they use AI to create or improve texts. Thirty-eight percent use AI for brainstorming and the development of ideas. Thirty-four percent use AI for translations. Sixteen percent use AI to create images, videos, or audio files. Eleven percent let AI perform calculations, while only 8% use AI to create websites or code. The same share (8%) applies to analyzing datasets.

On the question of why they are using AI, 61% said it helps them work more productively, and the same share applies to learning and education (61%). Fifty-four percent use AI to deal with routine tasks, 50% to develop new ideas, and 47% to be creative. Interestingly – and perhaps surprisingly – 43% of Germans use AI to solve personal problems. Thirty-two percent use it to better organize everyday life, and 29% use AI for fun and entertainment.

Regarding how people communicate with AI, 96% said they do so via text input. Voice-to-text input is used by 38%, while voice dialogue mode is used by 33%.

On the more noteworthy question of how Germans describe their emotional relationship with AI applications, most (80%) said that AI is simply a tool and that they do not have an emotional relationship with it. Germans do not seem to “love” these machines. Twenty-seven percent see AI as a smart coach who supports them in different situations, while only 6% see AI as a good friend to whom they entrust personal things. Notably, zero percent (0%) said they see AI as a permanent partner. It gets even better: nobody (0%) sees AI as someone for whom they feel romantic or emotionally close.

Yet when it comes to trustworthiness, Germans trust AI more than ever before. In 2024, 48% reported a high degree of trust in AI. By 2025, this number had increased to 53%. Still, 41% expressed rather low confidence in AI delivering trustworthy answers. Absolutely no trust in AI was expressed by 4% in 2025 (up from 2% in 2024).

While 45% – slightly less than half – of Germans trust AI only to a limited degree (41%) or not at all (4%), Germans are extremely unwilling to share personal and confidential data with AI. To the question “Have you ever entered personal or confidential data – such as your name, address, health data, or passwords – into an AI program?”, a reassuring 86% said “no”.

This reluctance increases with age. In the 16- to 29-year-old cohort, 78% said “no”, while 22% said “yes”. In the 30- to 49-year-old group, 85% said “no”. Among 50- to 64-year-olds, 92% said “no”, with the same applying to those over 65. In other words, Germany’s elderly are less likely to hand over sensitive data to AI, whether dodgy or not.

On the question “How big is your concern that the data you have entered into an AI application could be hacked, misused, or even published without your consent?”, 13% said they are very worried. Thirty-seven percent said they are somewhat worried, 43% said they are less worried, and only 4% said they are not worried at all.

On deepfakes and the question “Which of the following experiences have you already had in connection with AI?”, 51% said they had come across manipulated AI videos online showing real people. Thirty-one percent said they had received AI-generated phishing emails with deceptively realistic texts. Twenty-six percent said they had been called by automated AI voices imitating human conversations. 

Another 26% agreed with the statement “I have the impression that frequent use of AI makes me think less”. In other words, AI-induced cognitive dulling – or “cognitive atrophy” – is not a figment of our imagination.

On the issue of AI-generated false images and the question “Have you ever fallen for AI-generated content such as texts, images, videos, or audio?”51% said yes. Twenty-six percent were surprised by how genuine the content appeared, while 25% said they noticed it very quickly. Thirty-two percent said they had never encountered this, and 16% said they were not sure. 

With 51% saying “yes” and another 16% unsure – together 67%, or two-thirds of all Germans – it is reasonable to argue that this is a serious problem. The arrest of Donald Trump (wishful thinking), the pope’s puffer jacket (funny), and Cambridge Analytica’s (dangerous) manipulation of democracy have already shown this.

Fittingly, Germans are worried about the use of AI to manipulate democracy. Germans see democracy and the media as being under the influence of AI. When asked about the consequences of AI – such as ChatGPT – for Germany’s media system and democracy, Germans expressed deep concern.

To the question “To what extent do you agree with the following statements?”, a whopping 91% said that AI makes it harder to distinguish between real and manipulated content. Simultaneously, 83% believe AI will massively accelerate the spread of accidental misinformation and deliberate disinformation. 

Seventy-three percent are convinced that AI negatively influences political opinion formation, while roughly half of all Germans (49%) think AI is a threat to democracy.

Many Germans are also worried about the “incalculable” risks of AI. To the question “How much do you agree with the following statements about possible opportunities and risks of generative AI?”, a staggering 97% said there are unpredictable risks associated with AI technology. 

Worse, a clear majority of almost 60% think they will lose their jobs as a result of AI. At the same time, 32% worry about losing out in AI competence. And just when one might think it cannot get worse, about half of all Germans (49%) are convinced that humanity will lose control over AI technology.

Set against this is the conviction that AI needs regulation. Germans clearly do not believe in the neoliberal myth that “the free market will fix it”. To the question on European regulation of AI, a massive 83% said regulation is necessary to responsibly manage AI development and use. 

Sixty-two percent said regulation makes them feel better protected from AI-related risks, and 47% believe regulation will promote innovation in Europe by creating clear rules and standards.

Meanwhile, 33% believe regulation will slow technological development, while 28% think it will help Europe gain competitiveness compared to the USA and China. Interestingly, 17% agreed that AI should be banned altogether.

While a ban is rather unlikely, regulation – most likely at the European level – has already occurred with the EU AI Act of August 2024.

On the question of how important specific measures are to ensure AI safety and ethical standards, a reassuring 89% said it should be mandatory for manufacturers and suppliers to indicate when AI is used in a product or application. Eighty percent said there should be mandatory safety and quality testing of AI systems by independent organizations. In other words, Germans do not want a mirage of so-called industry self-regulation.

They want independent oversight and appear not to trust Big Tech – the profit-driven and monopolistic GAFAM corporations (Google/Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook/Meta, Apple, and Microsoft) and their BATX counterparts (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi). Among them, the “four headless horsemen of the apocalypse” – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Meta—run the show.

In the end, Germans show a hefty dose of distrust toward Big Tech and its often-promoted notion of “industry self-regulation”. Al Capone should not make gun laws. Perhaps there are good reasons why ordinary cars require regular technical inspections rather than relying on owner self-regulation. Perhaps large profit-driven corporations should be trusted even less.

Beyond that, Germans are using AI – and usage is growing. With ChatGPT dominating, Germans shifted AI use from laptops to smartphones between 2024 and 2025, with 72% using AI primarily to search for information. Meanwhile, a comforting 80% see AI as a tool, and 0% see it as a romantic partner. AI is a machine, not a girlfriend.

This is further substantiated by the fact that roughly half of Germans believe AI could be hacked and that their data are not secure. Virtually the same number have encountered fake material online, while 91% believe AI will make it harder to distinguish between what is real and what is fake.

Most troubling, however, is that 73% believe AI will negatively influence political opinion formation. Worse still, about half of all Germans think AI poses a danger to democracy.Email

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Thomas Klikauer has over 800 publications (including 12 books) and writes regularly for BraveNewEurope (Western Europe), the Barricades (Eastern Europe), Buzzflash (USA), Counterpunch (USA), Countercurrents (India), Tikkun (USA), and ZNet (USA). One of his books is on Managerialism (2013).

The Kurdish Freedom Struggle Is Facing a Crucial Moment

Source: Jacobin

“I encountered patriarchy and male dominance presiding over women and life, all in conjunction with the occupation of my homeland. We all knew that the state was the root cause,” says Peyman Viyan, the female coleader of PJAK, the most prominent Kurdish revolutionary group in Iran.

I am reading her responses, which have been sent to me and translated by intermediaries from a PJAK base in the mountainous border region of eastern Iraqi Kurdistan, on the border with Iran.

Kurdistan, divided and occupied by the regional powers of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, is a nation without a state. But its various political groups have carved out a semblance of autonomy for themselves, especially in Iraq and Syria, where centralized government control has receded as both states crumbled into internal conflict.

Peyman Viyan is her nom de guerre, inspired by her comrade Viyan Peyman, a singer and sniper who died fighting ISIS at Kobane in 2015. She tells me she comes from the “small but strategic” city of Maku in northwest Iran, near the Turkish border.

“We were children when the influence of the Apoist movement and its members spread. When we became teenagers, that influence became stronger. At one point, they distributed CDs with teachings about the struggle for a life of freedom,” Viyan says. “Apo” is the affectionate name that supporters use for Abdullah Öcalan, founder of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), who has been in jail on a small island near Istanbul since being captured by Turkey in 1999.

Despite his confinement, Öcalan’s influence among his Kurdish supporters and his importance to Turkish and Syrian politics have never been greater. He has become a key figure in the disarmament negotiations between Turkey and the PKK, and between the Syrian government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) who have controlled the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) since the start of Syria’s civil war.

Potential for Peace

After Öcalan’s imprisonment on İmralı island, he turned toward studying and writing, incorporating the work of American anarchist Murray Bookchin into a new theory of government tailored to the needs of the Kurds. This political philosophy, called Democratic confederalism, rejects nationalism in favor of a confederation of autonomous, democratic, and decentralized political groups. Öcalan and the Kurdish parties in Turkey then modified their separatist demands to put forward a less antagonistic call for greater autonomy.

As beloved as Öcalan is by many Kurds, he is hated by Turkish nationalists. Around forty thousand people have been killed in the conflict between Turkey and the PKK, and many Turkish families have relatives who have died fighting the PKK. Nobody is keen to return to the dark days of the 1990s, with the Turkish army demolishing Kurdish villages and frequent extrajudicial killings.

Turkey’s pursuit of a conclusive peace process with the PKK at the end of 2024 began just as the Syrian civil war was ending. Thousands of Kurdish fighters with nothing to do in Syria could easily move to Turkey or Iran to help their fellow Kurds. For its part, Turkey is looking to consolidate its military supremacy and become a key hub for energy resources from the Gulf.

The goal of peace with the Kurds is key to Turkey’s regional hegemony. This puts Öcalan in a surprisingly important position as a figurehead for Kurds in Syria and Turkey. There are suggestions he could even be invited to address the Turkish parliament.

The top general of the Kurdish-led SDF, Mazloum Abdi, says that he wants to meet with Öcalan, and that a successful PKK disarmament process would lead to peace between Turkey and Syria’s Kurds: “There is currently a ceasefire with the Turkish army here. This came about thanks to the [peace] process. If the process reaches a conclusion, the ceasefire on our side will also become permanent.” However, Öcalan has warned that if the peace process breaks down again, as it did previously in 2015, Turkey could return to the “coup mechanics” that brought down governments in 1960, 1971, 1980, and 1997.

Negotiations between the SDF and the post-Assad Syrian government to integrate Kurdish fighters into the Syrian army have also stalled. Al-Monitor suggests that the pause is probably meant to give Öcalan space to broker an agreement that Ankara and the SDF would both find acceptable: “But that’s a tall order.”

“The process that began in Turkey is very important,” Viyan says:

If the Turkish state resolves the Kurdish question and recognizes Kurdish identity officially, then the war in Turkey will cease, politics will change, the economy will change, foreign policy will change, and all of that will have a ripple effect on the region.

Rojhelat

The Iranian part of Kurdistan, known as Rojhelat in Kurdish, has long been a problem for the Iranian state, under both the regime of the Shah and the Islamic Republic that replaced it. It was here that the only independent Kurdish state in history existed for a year at the end of World War II. The Shah’s forces crushed the Republic of Mahabad in 1946, but its memory continues to inspire Kurds who dream of autonomy.

Estimates of the number of Kurds in Iran vary, from seven to fifteen million (which would be somewhere between 8 and 17 percent of the total Iranian population). Data is patchy because Kurds often don’t receive documentation until the age of ten, while many ethnic and religious groups are simply denied identification as a way to pressure them to convert to the state religion, Twelver Shi’ism. Outside of the three recognized minority groups — Zoroastrians, Christians, and Jews — Iran often does not recognize the marriages of religious minorities, meaning that people from groups like the Baháʼí, Yarsan, and Sunni groups like the Shafi are not counted.

Rojhelat was the home of Mahsa Amini, the young Kurdish woman who was killed by members of Iran’s Guidance Patrol after being arrested for supposed improper wearing of the hijab. Her death sparked widespread anti-government protests in 2022. The slogan that came to be associated with these protests, “Woman, Life, Freedom” (“Jin, Jiyan, Azadi” in Kurdish), was also inspired by the prison writings of Öcalan, who has said that “a country cannot be free unless the women are free.”

Iranian Kurds like Peyman Viyan hope that peace between Turkey and the PKK will force Iran to address its own Kurdish question. PJAK representatives say they are not looking for open confrontation with the Iranian state but will retaliate when attacked. Small clashes took place in 2025, with Iran killing PJAK members and PJAK retaliating by killing soldiers from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).

In December, Iran launched a “counter-terrorism exercise” in the northwest with participants from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Launched with six members in 2001, most notably China and Russia, the SCO now comprises ten states, and Iran joined it in 2023.

According to PJAK Assembly Member Siamand Moeini, PJAK has the military capacity to take control of cities in Rojhelat, but it refrains from doing so because of the consequences that would follow for the people living there from retaliation by Iranian forces. Viyan insists that the ideas of Democratic confederalism can be applied here as well:

Whether the Iranian regime changes itself or collapses under pressure, opportunities for freedom will emerge for the peoples of Iran, the Kurds, and other ethnic groups. While the formula for the system we use is unique for Kurdistan, it can be adjusted to suit the needs and requirements of Iran.

Iran’s Kurds have been making common cause with the Baloch people, whose land is split between Iran and Pakistan, and who also dream of autonomy, although it is not clear how deep coordination with the Baloch goes. “I must be clear that our perspective is not nationalist,” Viyan insists. Democratic confederalism seeks the self-determination of all peoples, she says, and this has encouraged the trust of other peoples like the Baloch:

The Baloch are both historically and culturally close to Kurds and, in many cases, religiously closer to Sunni Kurds (given that there are also Shia Kurds in Rojhelat), and they also face similar levels of oppression by the regime. Geographically we have some distance between us. Spiritually and culturally our ties are very close.

An open fight with the IRGC is not one PJAK could win by themselves. Asked whether PJAK would accept Israeli or US help, Viyan says that “any help and assistance offered must respect our fundamental human rights and freedoms. We will not accept assistance that costs us our principles of freedom and equality.”

Iran’s access to water is a particularly important issue, with the government warning that Tehran may need to be evacuated if there is not significant rainfall in December. The Iranian authorities have even begun cloud seeding to induce rain. Viyan accuses Iran’s rulers of mismanaging the water resources of Rojhelat:

Over the decades, the Iranian regime has built thousands of kilometers of dams and underground wells, and diverted Kurdistan’s water to other cities, especially Iran’s capital and central cities. Part of this is connected to global climate change, but a large part is connected to the regime’s malicious policies and the corrupt and inept government.

Prospects

Kurds in Syria have welcomed the Turkey–PKK peace process. Hassan Mohamed Ali, the cochair of the Public Relations Office of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), says that if it makes progress, “it will have a positive impact on us as well. This progress could reduce the Turkish threat and lessen the dangers facing Rojava and northeast Syria. The more the process advances, the better it will be for us.”

Ali believes Turkey has no choice but to seek a diplomatic solution with the PKK as it aims to position itself as a hub for energy supplies coming from Gulf states via Iraq and possibly Syria: “For these plans to succeed, there must be stability and peace in the region.”

Progress in negotiations between the SDC and Damascus has been slow, though Ali says that there were some positive developments in the latest meeting: “It was agreed that the SDF will be transformed into three integral military divisions, each maintaining its own structure and distinct formation within the government forces.”

The SDC is maintaining its demand for a more decentralized Syria. According to Aldar Khalil, a leader of the PKK’s sister party, the PYD, Syria’s interim president Ahmed Al-Sharaa “went as far as to say that he was okay with decentralization as long as we did not use that term. We could have it in practice and call it something different, he said.”

According to Ali, the US ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, has taken part in discussions between Al-Sharaa and the SDF commander Mazloum Abdi. Barrack, for his part, has said that he does not believe that decentralization is right for Syria, and that “benevolent monarchy” is what works best in the Middle East, which doesn’t bode well for the type of state the United States envisions in Syria.

The peace process is complicated by differing views of what its outcome should be. As the journalist Frederike Geerdink observes, Turkey’s governing parties AKP and MHP like to define the goal of negotiations as “a terror-free Turkey,” while DEM, a Turkish leftist party rooted in the Kurdish political movement, talk about the need for a democratic Turkey.

Berdan Öztürk, a DEM spokesperson, insists that a sustainable peace will require “the recognition, strengthening, and institutionalization of the Kurdish people’s political and cultural rights.” He adds that “concrete legal measures are needed to anchor the process on a solid and transparent foundation.”

What emerges from these conversations with Kurdish leaders is that everything now hinges on their ability — and that of Abdullah Öcalan — to reach an acceptable deal first with Turkey, and then with Syria. Peyman Viyan is optimistic that the ongoing processes of negotiation with Öcalan and the SDF will lead to greater freedom for Kurds throughout the Middle East: “Our motto for fifty years has been: either victory or victory. We see that victory is near now. With the hope of a liberated future.”