President Donald Trump with Vice President JD Vance and House Speaker Mike Johnson on March 4, 2025
(Wikimedia Commons)
March 18, 2025
ALTERNET
President Donald Trump and other MAGA Republicans are claiming that if his aggressive new tariffs cause any financial discomfort, it will only be short-term — and will be followed by a robust economic boom.
But Roosevelt Institute economist Ali Bustamante, in an op-ed published by MSNBC on March 18, argues that MAGA's pro-tariff claims fail to acknowledge the long-lasting damage that severe economic downturns can inflict.
"His argument? That a recession now will lead to some vague 'golden age' later," Bustamante explains. "But that’s not how economies work. Recessions aren't detox cleanses; they don't flush out inefficiencies and leave you leaner and stronger. They are periods of mass job losses, closed businesses and financial ruin that leave lasting scars on families, workers and entire communities. We know this because we've lived it — and not even that long ago."
Bustamante continues, "The 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession didn't make the U.S. economy more efficient — it wiped out a generation of wealth, particularly for Black and Latino families, and left millions behind. The recession caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic deepened inequality and exacerbated housing insecurity, despite the fastest policy response in modern history."
The Roosevelt Institute economist warns that "recessions don’t set the stage for prosperity," but rather, "cause long-term damage that even a decade of growth can't fully undo."
"In reality, recessions kill small businesses while the biggest corporations consolidate power," Bustamente notes. "They drive up unemployment, forcing workers to take worse jobs for lower pay, and they weaken the very public institutions — like schools, health care and infrastructure — that enable long-term economic growth. Even worse, the current slate of proposed policies would actively make the economy more fragile."
According to Bustamente, the Trump Administration's policies are a recipe for economic decline.
"Imposing broad tariffs would raise prices for consumers and manufacturers alike, increasing inflation while slowing down economic activity," Bustamante writes. "Mass layoffs of government workers wouldn't lead to leaner government — it would gut essential public services, hurting businesses that rely on those workers' paychecks. And cutting Medicaid and Social Security wouldn't create a more 'dynamic' workforce; it would push millions into poverty, reduce consumer spending and force older Americans to stay in the workforce longer, crowding out younger workers from job opportunities…. The Trump Administration's vision is clear: force a recession, break the public sector and weaken social protections, all hoping that something better will emerge on the other side. But history has shown us what actually happens — higher inequality, lower wages and an economy rigged even further in favor of the ultrawealthy. Economic downturns don’t just disappear once the pain subsides; they leave behind long-term damage."
Ali Bustamante's full MSNBC op-ed is available at this link.
President Donald Trump and other MAGA Republicans are claiming that if his aggressive new tariffs cause any financial discomfort, it will only be short-term — and will be followed by a robust economic boom.
But Roosevelt Institute economist Ali Bustamante, in an op-ed published by MSNBC on March 18, argues that MAGA's pro-tariff claims fail to acknowledge the long-lasting damage that severe economic downturns can inflict.
"His argument? That a recession now will lead to some vague 'golden age' later," Bustamante explains. "But that’s not how economies work. Recessions aren't detox cleanses; they don't flush out inefficiencies and leave you leaner and stronger. They are periods of mass job losses, closed businesses and financial ruin that leave lasting scars on families, workers and entire communities. We know this because we've lived it — and not even that long ago."
Bustamante continues, "The 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession didn't make the U.S. economy more efficient — it wiped out a generation of wealth, particularly for Black and Latino families, and left millions behind. The recession caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic deepened inequality and exacerbated housing insecurity, despite the fastest policy response in modern history."
The Roosevelt Institute economist warns that "recessions don’t set the stage for prosperity," but rather, "cause long-term damage that even a decade of growth can't fully undo."
"In reality, recessions kill small businesses while the biggest corporations consolidate power," Bustamente notes. "They drive up unemployment, forcing workers to take worse jobs for lower pay, and they weaken the very public institutions — like schools, health care and infrastructure — that enable long-term economic growth. Even worse, the current slate of proposed policies would actively make the economy more fragile."
According to Bustamente, the Trump Administration's policies are a recipe for economic decline.
"Imposing broad tariffs would raise prices for consumers and manufacturers alike, increasing inflation while slowing down economic activity," Bustamante writes. "Mass layoffs of government workers wouldn't lead to leaner government — it would gut essential public services, hurting businesses that rely on those workers' paychecks. And cutting Medicaid and Social Security wouldn't create a more 'dynamic' workforce; it would push millions into poverty, reduce consumer spending and force older Americans to stay in the workforce longer, crowding out younger workers from job opportunities…. The Trump Administration's vision is clear: force a recession, break the public sector and weaken social protections, all hoping that something better will emerge on the other side. But history has shown us what actually happens — higher inequality, lower wages and an economy rigged even further in favor of the ultrawealthy. Economic downturns don’t just disappear once the pain subsides; they leave behind long-term damage."
Ali Bustamante's full MSNBC op-ed is available at this link.
'Looming trade war': Economist Paul Krugman explains why world is 'a much scarier place now'
Economist Paul Krugman in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on September 25, 2023
(A. Paes/Shutterstock.com)
March 18, 2025
ALTERNET
Liberal economist and former New York Times columnist Paul Krugman disagrees with the late conservative economist Milton Friedman on many things, but one area where Krugman is very much in agreement with Friedman is on tariffs. Krugman, like Friedman, believes that tariffs are terrible for both businesses and consumers — and he fears that the aggressive new tariffs President Donald Trump is imposing on Canada, Mexico and other longtime allies could help get the U.S. into a bad recession.
No good, Krugman warns, can come from Trump getting the U.S. into all-out trade wars with Canada, Mexico and countries in the European Union (EU).
During an appearance on the "Trade Walks" podcast posted on March 16, Krugman cited trade wars as one of the reasons the world is facing a dangerously unstable period.
Krugman explained, "The world used to be — well, OK, there was the Soviet bloc, but the world's market economies were relatively easy with each other. It was a relatively frictionless world and a world in which disputes tended to be minor. We had trade issues. We had chlorinated chickens and that sort of thing, but not existential issues. And the world is a much scarier place now."
According to Krugman, one possible result of trade wars is the U.S. losing access to technology it badly needs.
The economist argued, "So, even a couple of months ago, I would've said that nobody worries about ASML and the fact that that really high-end chip manufacturing equipment is all in the Netherlands. No one expects the Dutch to engage in an aggressive campaign of conquest. But on the other hand, if we're talking about a looming trade war between the United States and the EU, the United States might suddenly find itself cut off from the equipment that it needs to produce high-end chips."
Krugman added, "So, I would say that we weren't thinking about it. I would have actually said it was inconceivable that we would be in the kind of world that we're now in — so, a failure of imagination."
Listen to Paul Krugman on the full podcast at this link.
ALTERNET
Liberal economist and former New York Times columnist Paul Krugman disagrees with the late conservative economist Milton Friedman on many things, but one area where Krugman is very much in agreement with Friedman is on tariffs. Krugman, like Friedman, believes that tariffs are terrible for both businesses and consumers — and he fears that the aggressive new tariffs President Donald Trump is imposing on Canada, Mexico and other longtime allies could help get the U.S. into a bad recession.
No good, Krugman warns, can come from Trump getting the U.S. into all-out trade wars with Canada, Mexico and countries in the European Union (EU).
During an appearance on the "Trade Walks" podcast posted on March 16, Krugman cited trade wars as one of the reasons the world is facing a dangerously unstable period.
Krugman explained, "The world used to be — well, OK, there was the Soviet bloc, but the world's market economies were relatively easy with each other. It was a relatively frictionless world and a world in which disputes tended to be minor. We had trade issues. We had chlorinated chickens and that sort of thing, but not existential issues. And the world is a much scarier place now."
According to Krugman, one possible result of trade wars is the U.S. losing access to technology it badly needs.
The economist argued, "So, even a couple of months ago, I would've said that nobody worries about ASML and the fact that that really high-end chip manufacturing equipment is all in the Netherlands. No one expects the Dutch to engage in an aggressive campaign of conquest. But on the other hand, if we're talking about a looming trade war between the United States and the EU, the United States might suddenly find itself cut off from the equipment that it needs to produce high-end chips."
Krugman added, "So, I would say that we weren't thinking about it. I would have actually said it was inconceivable that we would be in the kind of world that we're now in — so, a failure of imagination."
Listen to Paul Krugman on the full podcast at this link.
Trump’s trade war imperiling 'global economy' — and igniting fears of 'stagflation'
U.S. President Donald Trump meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in the White House Oval Office on February 24, 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in the White House Oval Office on February 24, 2025
(Wikimedia Commons)
March 17, 2025
ALTERNET
President Donald Trump's aggressive new tariffs are igniting trade wars not only with Canada, Mexico and Mainland China, but also, with longtime allies in the European Union (EU). And the tariffs are setting off instability in the stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average taking some major plunges in mid-March.
Washington Post columnist Catherine Rampell examined the state of the U.S. economy during a Monday morning, March 17 appearance on MSNBC — and noted fears of possible "stagflation."
Rampell, now a weekend host on MSNBC, outlined the concerns expressed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in a recent forecast.
READ MORE:'Sounds like Putin': Trump blasted for declaring top news organizations 'illegal'
Rampell told fellow MSNBC host Ana Cabrera, "Relative to just three months ago, they have ratcheted down their forecasts for economic growth and ratcheted up their forecasts for inflation, both in the U.S. and around the world. And so basically, they blame that primarily on rising uncertainty and Trump's trade wars."
When Cabrera asked Rampell, "How bad could it get?," the Post columnist responded, "Well, the numbers so far don't indicate, let's say, a recession. But they do warn that if things escalate — if these trade wars escalate — we will see a…. huge impact on growth and on consumer prices. So, just as an example: a few months ago, right before Trump took office, the OECD was predicting that inflation would fall this year in the United States relative to last year. They're no longer predicting that; they are predicting that inflation will speed up this year in the United States relative to last year."
Rampell added, "Much of the rest of the world, they're also seeing, you know, some increase in consumer prices, but not like what we are expected to see here."
The "general impact" of Trump's trade war, Rampell told Cabrera, "is quite bad" for "the U.S. economy and the global economy."
Rampell noted, "I think this is the first evidence we have — the first official forecast, anyway, that we have — that Trump's trade wars are already dragging on the global economy…. On the one hand, the tariff hikes are likely to raise prices. On the other hand, they're likely to slow growth. And one of those outcomes would nudge the Fed to raise rates, and one of them would nudge the Fed to cut rates. And so, they're kind of stuck in this difficult position of potential stagflation. People who remember the '70s remember that potential outcome. "
Economists used the term "stagflation" to describe a painful combination of high inflation, stagnant economic growth, and rising unemployment. Stagflation was a major problem in the United States in the late 1970s and early 1980s and was a factor in Ronald Reagan's landslide victory over President Jimmy Carter in the 1980 election.
However, Reagan, during his first term, was dogged by economic woes as well, which led to Democrats' blue wave in the 1982 midterms.
Watch the full video below or at this link.
President Donald Trump's aggressive new tariffs are igniting trade wars not only with Canada, Mexico and Mainland China, but also, with longtime allies in the European Union (EU). And the tariffs are setting off instability in the stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average taking some major plunges in mid-March.
Washington Post columnist Catherine Rampell examined the state of the U.S. economy during a Monday morning, March 17 appearance on MSNBC — and noted fears of possible "stagflation."
Rampell, now a weekend host on MSNBC, outlined the concerns expressed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in a recent forecast.
READ MORE:'Sounds like Putin': Trump blasted for declaring top news organizations 'illegal'
Rampell told fellow MSNBC host Ana Cabrera, "Relative to just three months ago, they have ratcheted down their forecasts for economic growth and ratcheted up their forecasts for inflation, both in the U.S. and around the world. And so basically, they blame that primarily on rising uncertainty and Trump's trade wars."
When Cabrera asked Rampell, "How bad could it get?," the Post columnist responded, "Well, the numbers so far don't indicate, let's say, a recession. But they do warn that if things escalate — if these trade wars escalate — we will see a…. huge impact on growth and on consumer prices. So, just as an example: a few months ago, right before Trump took office, the OECD was predicting that inflation would fall this year in the United States relative to last year. They're no longer predicting that; they are predicting that inflation will speed up this year in the United States relative to last year."
Rampell added, "Much of the rest of the world, they're also seeing, you know, some increase in consumer prices, but not like what we are expected to see here."
The "general impact" of Trump's trade war, Rampell told Cabrera, "is quite bad" for "the U.S. economy and the global economy."
Rampell noted, "I think this is the first evidence we have — the first official forecast, anyway, that we have — that Trump's trade wars are already dragging on the global economy…. On the one hand, the tariff hikes are likely to raise prices. On the other hand, they're likely to slow growth. And one of those outcomes would nudge the Fed to raise rates, and one of them would nudge the Fed to cut rates. And so, they're kind of stuck in this difficult position of potential stagflation. People who remember the '70s remember that potential outcome. "
Economists used the term "stagflation" to describe a painful combination of high inflation, stagnant economic growth, and rising unemployment. Stagflation was a major problem in the United States in the late 1970s and early 1980s and was a factor in Ronald Reagan's landslide victory over President Jimmy Carter in the 1980 election.
However, Reagan, during his first term, was dogged by economic woes as well, which led to Democrats' blue wave in the 1982 midterms.
Watch the full video below or at this link.
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