Published June 15, 2025
DAWN
The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
ANY military campaign must have clearly defined objectives, and Israel said its main aim of starting a war with Iran, through its ongoing massive air attacks with tacit backing from US and Western governments, was to stop Tehran’s march towards the acquisition of nuclear weapons.
It may not have been so openly stated, but one important objective is regime change in Iran in order to try and usher in a regime more like Israel’s other Middle Eastern/ regional neighbours, who are happy to be friends with Tel Aviv. That is why they offer only perfunctory condemnation of Israel’s ethnic-cleansing of Palestinians not just in Gaza, but also the West Bank.
A wider war also helps shift the focus from the worst ethnic cleansing of this century in Gaza by relentless bombing, other military means, and mass starvation. It is the food blockade which was beginning to create a little unease among at least Israel’s European allies, who have so far offered unconditional material and diplomatic support to it on Gaza.
At least the European allies, I say, because the US administration solidly supports the apartheid state, which is executing the American president’s Gaza Riviera Plan. It visualises beachside resorts after the forceful displacement of two million Palestinians to unspecified countries, presumably Muslim.
The Gaza genocide has really not been about Israeli hostages taken during the October 2023 atrocity. Ample evidence of this can be found in the conduct of presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, whose family members are crypto business partners with the Trump family. He has walked away twice, if not more times, from deals that could have secured the release or exchange of the remaining hostages in Hamas captivity. Meanwhile, hundreds of Palestinians remain in Israeli captivity who are no more than hostages.
How long can Iran’s arsenal of reportedly 2,000 ballistic missiles last?
Despite this unconditional support to Israel, President Donald Trump so far seems unprepared to commit US forces in any open confrontation. Over the coming days, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts will be directed towards somehow sucking in the US to commit forces into the war with Iran.
After the Iranian missile retaliation against the Israeli air campaign, which killed several senior Iranian military commanders, leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and targeted nuclear sites, former Israeli prime minister and military chief Ehud Barak picked off some of these objectives one by one in an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour.
Ehud Barak was categorical in saying that Israel’s air campaign may have ‘delayed’ by a few weeks Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear weapon but, he said, even if the US joined the air campaign, it would delay it by no more than a few months at best. “They have 400 kilograms of 60 per cent enriched uranium and it can be enriched to 90pc in a garage with the right equipment and they will have a crude bomb,” he said.
Quoting the chief of the IAEA (the international nuclear watchdog), who said that many of Iran’s key facilities are “hundreds of yards” underground in old mines, etc, Mr Barak maintained these were “out of our reach”. “I have no illusions we’ll do anything more than damage or hurt them.”
The former IDF chief said the initial successes of the air campaign, which exceeded expectations, should be used to push through a nuclear deal with Iran, stop the war in Gaza, and go for peace in the wider region, including Saudi Arabia, which would take time and won’t be easy but still needs to be done.
He said going further for Israel without US logistics support will be difficult, so it should say ‘we have done all we could do, now it is up to you’. At a time when Israeli intelligence’s targeting of the Iranian military’s key leaders is being seen as a manifestation of internal divisions, Ehud Barak also addressed the issue of regime change.
Saying it did not appear possible without US ground troops on Iranian soil, he listed wars from Korea to Vietnam to Afghanistan that the US entered but was unable to win: “How did those wars go?” he asked, while doubting that President Trump, or any other US leader or the American public for that matter, would have the appetite to commit US boots to the ground.
It is true that in 2018, Trump unilaterally scuppered an Obama-led deal that stopped Iran’s nuclear weapons march in exchange for sanctions relief. But the scrapping pushed Tehran back to restarting its enrichment levels closer to weapons grade. So, in a sense, this war hasn’t been about Iran’s nuclear arms quest but more about getting it to bow to Israeli-US will.
Therefore, it is important to see who is eventually likely to get the upper hand in this conflict. With the US and entire Western production, stores and supplies of modern weaponry at its disposal, it would be safe to assume Israel can outlast Iran in a war of attrition. For all practical purposes, Iran has no air force, and its air defence system appears inadequate.
How long can its arsenal of reportedly 2,000 ballistic missiles last? What happens beyond that? These are some of the questions that need to be answered. So far, Iran has taken massive hits and yet has been able to remain defiant and retaliate. Can it sustain this in the medium to long term, and will there be any third-party mediation to stop the war?
Or, if cornered further, will Iran lash out directly at US bases and assets in the region and even nations hosting them in order to expand the conflict as a means of stopping it? The impact of any such eventuality will not only be on millions of lives in the region but also on the global economy.
abbas.nasir@hotmail.com
Published in Dawn, June 15th, 2025
ANY military campaign must have clearly defined objectives, and Israel said its main aim of starting a war with Iran, through its ongoing massive air attacks with tacit backing from US and Western governments, was to stop Tehran’s march towards the acquisition of nuclear weapons.
It may not have been so openly stated, but one important objective is regime change in Iran in order to try and usher in a regime more like Israel’s other Middle Eastern/ regional neighbours, who are happy to be friends with Tel Aviv. That is why they offer only perfunctory condemnation of Israel’s ethnic-cleansing of Palestinians not just in Gaza, but also the West Bank.
A wider war also helps shift the focus from the worst ethnic cleansing of this century in Gaza by relentless bombing, other military means, and mass starvation. It is the food blockade which was beginning to create a little unease among at least Israel’s European allies, who have so far offered unconditional material and diplomatic support to it on Gaza.
At least the European allies, I say, because the US administration solidly supports the apartheid state, which is executing the American president’s Gaza Riviera Plan. It visualises beachside resorts after the forceful displacement of two million Palestinians to unspecified countries, presumably Muslim.
The Gaza genocide has really not been about Israeli hostages taken during the October 2023 atrocity. Ample evidence of this can be found in the conduct of presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, whose family members are crypto business partners with the Trump family. He has walked away twice, if not more times, from deals that could have secured the release or exchange of the remaining hostages in Hamas captivity. Meanwhile, hundreds of Palestinians remain in Israeli captivity who are no more than hostages.
How long can Iran’s arsenal of reportedly 2,000 ballistic missiles last?
Despite this unconditional support to Israel, President Donald Trump so far seems unprepared to commit US forces in any open confrontation. Over the coming days, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts will be directed towards somehow sucking in the US to commit forces into the war with Iran.
After the Iranian missile retaliation against the Israeli air campaign, which killed several senior Iranian military commanders, leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and targeted nuclear sites, former Israeli prime minister and military chief Ehud Barak picked off some of these objectives one by one in an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour.
Ehud Barak was categorical in saying that Israel’s air campaign may have ‘delayed’ by a few weeks Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear weapon but, he said, even if the US joined the air campaign, it would delay it by no more than a few months at best. “They have 400 kilograms of 60 per cent enriched uranium and it can be enriched to 90pc in a garage with the right equipment and they will have a crude bomb,” he said.
Quoting the chief of the IAEA (the international nuclear watchdog), who said that many of Iran’s key facilities are “hundreds of yards” underground in old mines, etc, Mr Barak maintained these were “out of our reach”. “I have no illusions we’ll do anything more than damage or hurt them.”
The former IDF chief said the initial successes of the air campaign, which exceeded expectations, should be used to push through a nuclear deal with Iran, stop the war in Gaza, and go for peace in the wider region, including Saudi Arabia, which would take time and won’t be easy but still needs to be done.
He said going further for Israel without US logistics support will be difficult, so it should say ‘we have done all we could do, now it is up to you’. At a time when Israeli intelligence’s targeting of the Iranian military’s key leaders is being seen as a manifestation of internal divisions, Ehud Barak also addressed the issue of regime change.
Saying it did not appear possible without US ground troops on Iranian soil, he listed wars from Korea to Vietnam to Afghanistan that the US entered but was unable to win: “How did those wars go?” he asked, while doubting that President Trump, or any other US leader or the American public for that matter, would have the appetite to commit US boots to the ground.
It is true that in 2018, Trump unilaterally scuppered an Obama-led deal that stopped Iran’s nuclear weapons march in exchange for sanctions relief. But the scrapping pushed Tehran back to restarting its enrichment levels closer to weapons grade. So, in a sense, this war hasn’t been about Iran’s nuclear arms quest but more about getting it to bow to Israeli-US will.
Therefore, it is important to see who is eventually likely to get the upper hand in this conflict. With the US and entire Western production, stores and supplies of modern weaponry at its disposal, it would be safe to assume Israel can outlast Iran in a war of attrition. For all practical purposes, Iran has no air force, and its air defence system appears inadequate.
How long can its arsenal of reportedly 2,000 ballistic missiles last? What happens beyond that? These are some of the questions that need to be answered. So far, Iran has taken massive hits and yet has been able to remain defiant and retaliate. Can it sustain this in the medium to long term, and will there be any third-party mediation to stop the war?
Or, if cornered further, will Iran lash out directly at US bases and assets in the region and even nations hosting them in order to expand the conflict as a means of stopping it? The impact of any such eventuality will not only be on millions of lives in the region but also on the global economy.
abbas.nasir@hotmail.com
Published in Dawn, June 15th, 2025
Deepening conflict
June 15, 2025
DAWN
AS hostilities between Iran and Israel continued for the second day on Saturday, following Tel Aviv’s provocative strikes against the Islamic Republic on Friday, many around the world worried about the diminishing chances of de-escalation.
While Israel had struck multiple sites and killed several senior Iranian military leaders and scientists on Friday, Tehran hit back, sending barrages of drones and missiles towards the Zionist state later in the day.
As the conflict grinds on, there are dangers it may expand, particularly if the US gets involved. Such a development would be devastating for the region, sending shockwaves across the globe.
Some media reports say that the US had shipped hundreds of missiles to Israel before the attack on Iran, while there are also indications that American forces helped shoot down Iranian missiles headed for Israel. Tehran has said it will hit American as well as British and French bases if these states defend Tel Aviv.
In the midst of conflict, President Donald Trump must be asked why he did not do more to stop Israel’s attack on Iran. Tel Aviv’s justification that it is waging ‘pre-emptive’ strikes to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb rings hollow, coming from a state believed to have a clandestine nuclear programme itself, and which has violated the sovereignty of nearly all its neighbours.
Mr Trump had billed himself a ‘man of peace’, but in this instance he is standing by as Israeli warmongers, flush with American cash and arms, have embarked on a destructive adventure that can set the Middle East alight.
Even some of Mr Trump’s ardent supporters in the MAGA movement have criticised the Israeli war and potential American involvement. The US president’s calls for Tehran to resume dialogue on the nuclear issue are laughable, especially at a time when Iran is facing an onslaught from America’s key ally.
Similarly, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s appeals for Iranians to rise up against their government and seek ‘freedom’ are the stuff of black humour, as Israel has killed and injured numerous ordinary Iranians in the ongoing aggression. Mr Netanyahu, so concerned about Iranians’ freedom, clearly does not feel Palestinians are also entitled to life and liberty, as the Gaza genocide has shown.
With prospects for peace looking dim, the world, particularly Iran’s neighbours — including Pakistan and the Middle East states — must be prepared for prolonged geopolitical turbulence and economic tremors. The region is amongst the world’s trade and energy hubs, and if the conflict continues and intensifies, the global order will feel the heat.
Pakistan, as a neighbour of Iran, is particularly vulnerable, and the state must be ready for what lies ahead, while also making efforts to safely bring home Pakistani zaireen and visitors in Iran.
Published in Dawn, June 15th, 2025
‘Declaration of war’
Editorial
ISRAEL’S provocative behaviour has, once again, brought the Middle East to the precipice of a full-blown war.
The Zionist state’s attack on Iran, which began early on Friday morning and was continuing at the time these lines were being written, has the potential of setting the already fragile region on fire, and sending the global economy into a tailspin. A large number of fatalities have been reported, including women and children, and residential areas have been hit along with military targets.
Among the victims have been the Iranian army’s chief of staff, as well as the head of the powerful Pasdaran, along with several senior scientists. Several Iranian cities have been attacked, indicating that Israel had deep intelligence about key Iranian facilities and personnel. It is no wonder that Tehran has termed Israel’s reckless attack a ‘declaration of war’.
Tel Aviv has said it attacked Iran because of the supposed threat it posed to “Israel’s very survival”. This is contrary to the facts. It has been Israel that has constantly been provoking Iran. The bombing of Iranian diplomatic facilities in Damascus as well as the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last year, which resulted in two separate Iranian missile and drone barrages targeting Israel, are proof.
In fact, Israel has continuously been threatening regional peace for decades by attacking and pillaging other countries. Over the last few years, along with the murderous rampage in Gaza, Israel has attacked Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and now Iran. So Tel Aviv’s ‘self-defence’ alibi is hardly believable. The plain truth is that Israeli behaviour is a threat to world peace.
There has been condemnation of the Israeli attacks from several states, particularly the Muslim bloc. The Pakistani leadership as well as parliament have denounced Tel Aviv’s aggression and expressed solidarity with Tehran.
Yet others see the aggression differently; for example, US President Donald Trump says the offensive was “excellent” and has boasted that there is more in store. But he has also perplexingly asked Iran to return to the negotiating table. It is unlikely Iran will negotiate with a gun to its head. The Iranian leadership has promised to avenge the attack. It should be remembered that Iran has survived a brutal eight-year war with Iraq, and the Iranians are adept at playing the long game.
Israel has threatened that the attacks will continue for as long as needed; the Iranians may just take them up on the ‘offer’. The world stands at a very dangerous crossroads here. If the US joins in the ‘defence’ of Israel, matters may spiral out of control. The UNSC is meeting to address the issue, and though expectations should be modest, full efforts are needed to stop this new war.
Published in Dawn, June 14th, 2025
Editorial
Published June 14, 2025
DAWN
ISRAEL’S provocative behaviour has, once again, brought the Middle East to the precipice of a full-blown war.
The Zionist state’s attack on Iran, which began early on Friday morning and was continuing at the time these lines were being written, has the potential of setting the already fragile region on fire, and sending the global economy into a tailspin. A large number of fatalities have been reported, including women and children, and residential areas have been hit along with military targets.
Among the victims have been the Iranian army’s chief of staff, as well as the head of the powerful Pasdaran, along with several senior scientists. Several Iranian cities have been attacked, indicating that Israel had deep intelligence about key Iranian facilities and personnel. It is no wonder that Tehran has termed Israel’s reckless attack a ‘declaration of war’.
Tel Aviv has said it attacked Iran because of the supposed threat it posed to “Israel’s very survival”. This is contrary to the facts. It has been Israel that has constantly been provoking Iran. The bombing of Iranian diplomatic facilities in Damascus as well as the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last year, which resulted in two separate Iranian missile and drone barrages targeting Israel, are proof.
In fact, Israel has continuously been threatening regional peace for decades by attacking and pillaging other countries. Over the last few years, along with the murderous rampage in Gaza, Israel has attacked Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and now Iran. So Tel Aviv’s ‘self-defence’ alibi is hardly believable. The plain truth is that Israeli behaviour is a threat to world peace.
There has been condemnation of the Israeli attacks from several states, particularly the Muslim bloc. The Pakistani leadership as well as parliament have denounced Tel Aviv’s aggression and expressed solidarity with Tehran.
Yet others see the aggression differently; for example, US President Donald Trump says the offensive was “excellent” and has boasted that there is more in store. But he has also perplexingly asked Iran to return to the negotiating table. It is unlikely Iran will negotiate with a gun to its head. The Iranian leadership has promised to avenge the attack. It should be remembered that Iran has survived a brutal eight-year war with Iraq, and the Iranians are adept at playing the long game.
Israel has threatened that the attacks will continue for as long as needed; the Iranians may just take them up on the ‘offer’. The world stands at a very dangerous crossroads here. If the US joins in the ‘defence’ of Israel, matters may spiral out of control. The UNSC is meeting to address the issue, and though expectations should be modest, full efforts are needed to stop this new war.
Published in Dawn, June 14th, 2025
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