Signs that coronavirus was spreading in Wuhan earlier than thought, study finds

Retrospective look at patient samples finds slow build of coronavirus

Nine patients came from six Wuhan districts, further evidence of wider person-to-person infection


Zhuang Pinghui SCMP in Beijing Published: 9 Apr, 2020

Electron microscope image by the US National Institutes of Health reveals the virus that causes Covid-19. Photo: AP

A look back at samples of patients with flu-like symptoms in the central Chinese city of Wuhan has uncovered signs of
coronavirus outbreaks in the wider community in early January – well before the public was even told the pathogen was contagious.
The coronavirus emerged in late December as a mysterious respiratory infection in dozens of patients, many of them linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in the city.

Local health authorities initially thought the patients were sickened through exposure to a common infection source in the market and ruled out the pathogen as contagious until January 20.

It is still unclear whether the wholesale market was the source of the outbreak or a breeding ground for the virus to spread among more people.

The virus has since swept across the planet and infected 1.4 million people, killing more than 80,000.

The lockdown in Wuhan is officially lifted, but life is still far from normal

Researchers with the Wuhan Centre for Disease Control and Prevention looked at patient samples from October 6 until January 21 to search for undetected cases of Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus.
They analysed 640 throat swabs collected from young and adult patients with influenza-like illnesses – all outpatients with a sudden onset of a fever higher than 38 degrees Celsius and a cough or sore throat.

Nine adult samples tested positive for the Sars-CoV-2, the previously unknown coronavirus. One of 40 samples taken from two Wuhan hospitals on January 4 tested positive. There were three positive swabs among samples taken the next week and five the following week.

“Although the weekly sample size was small, it seems that Covid-19 was gradually expanding among the influenza-like illness cases during January,” the researchers, led by Liu Manqing, wrote in a paper published in Nature Microbiology on Tuesday.

“Interestingly, the nine patients with Covid-19 came from six different districts of the Wuhan metropolitan and surrounding areas, which provided additional evidence for community transmission in this region.”

Deadly coronavirus may not have originated in Wuhan seafood market, Chinese scientists say

The city imposed an unprecedented lockdown to curb the spread of the virus on January 23.
The lockdown was lifted on Wednesday but measures are still in place inside the city to prevent further outbreaks.

Wuhan has been monitoring influenza-like illnesses and their causes since 2005 as part of the national influenza surveillance network.

Two hospitals from the network, the Children’s Hospital of Wuhan and Wuhan No 1 Hospital – a major general hospital with more than 2 million outpatient visits per year – were chosen for the study.

The surveillance in Wuhan was suspended in late January because CDC labs and hospitals concentrated instead on handling the overwhelming medical needs created by Covid-19.

Thousands of covert coronavirus cases unreported in central Chinese city of Wuhan, study says

Such retrospective analysis has also been conducted in other parts of China, according to a report by the WHO-China Joint Mission, after a group of Chinese and foreign experts visited China for eight days in February.

In the southern province of Guangdong, from January 1 to 14 only one of more than 15,000 influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory infection samples tested positive for the new coronavirus.

In one hospital in Beijing, there were no Covid-19 positive samples among 1,910 collected from January 28, 2019, to February 13, 2020.

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Coronavirus: Nature magazine apologizes for reports linking Covid-19 with China

Scientific journal admits it ‘was an error on our part’ to erroneously link the pathogen with Wuhan and China
‘It would be tragic if stigma, fuelled by the coronavirus, led Asia’s young people to retreat from international campuses,’ it says


Sarah Zheng Published: 9 Apr, 2020 SCMP

Nature magazine said that continuing to associate a virus with a specific place is irresponsible and needs to stop. Photo: AFP

British scientific journal Nature has apologised for associating  Covid-19 with China in its reporting, saying that early coverage of the global health crisis by itself and other media had led to racist attacks on people of Asian descent around the world.

In an article published on Tuesday, the publication said that the World Health Organisation’s announcement on February 11 that the official name for the pneumonia-like virus would be Covid-19 had been an implicit reminder to “those who had erroneously been associating the virus with Wuhan and with China in their news coverage – including Nature”.

“That we did so was an error on our part, for which we take responsibility and apologise,” it said.

“It’s clear that since the outbreak was first reported, people of Asian descent around the world have been subjected to racist attacks, with untold human costs – for example, on their health and livelihoods.”

The article said that while it had been common for viral diseases to be associated with the areas in which outbreaks had occurred – like Middle East respiratory syndrome and the Zika virus, which was named after a Ugandan forest – the WHO had introduced guidelines in 2015 to reduce the negative impact of such labelling on people from those areas.

The impact of a stigmatised virus name would have “worrying implications” for students from China and other countries in Asia, “hurting the diversity of university campuses and diversity of points of view in academia”, it said.

“It would be tragic if stigma, fuelled by the coronavirus, led Asia’s young people to retreat from international campuses, curtailing their own education, reducing their own and others’ opportunities and leaving research worse off – just when the world is relying on it to find a way out,” it said. “Coronavirus stigma must stop – now.”

Beijing has strongly objected to any links between Covid-19 and China, saying that the origin of the coronavirus remains unknown and that establishing where it came from should be left to the scientific community and not be used as a political football.

US President Donald Trump repeatedly used the term “Chinese virus” in relation to the health crisis before dropping it last month after acknowledging there had been a rise in “nasty language” directed at the Asian-American community.

Brazilian lawmaker Eduardo Bonsolaro, son of the country’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, has said that the coronavirus was China’s fault.

Since the coronavirus outbreak began at the end of last year there has been an increase in reported racist abuse of people of Asian descent around the world, including in one case, three members of an Asian family in Texas, including two children, aged six and two, being stabbed.

“As countries struggle to control the spread of the new coronavirus, a minority of politicians are sticking with the outdated script,” the Nature report said.

“Continuing to associate a virus and the disease it causes with a specific place is irresponsible and needs to stop.”

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The first Opium war left an indelible scar on China.

 The mainland lost Hong Kong and was forced to open up trade to foreigners.

In the 18th century, foreign trade with China was limited to Canton, modern-day Guangzhou. Foreigners were confined to towns outside of Canton, known as the '13 Factories', or Hongs (not really factories). British trade was run by the East India Trading Company; Chinese trade was dominated by the Hongs.

Here is a timeline of what happened:

1820 - Import of opium begins in earnest

China is willing to provide Britain with tea and other luxury goods, but is unwilling to accept anything but silver as payment. The British have to import silver from Europe or Mexico. They run into a trade deficit and seek ways to counter-trade. They find a solution in an Indian narcotic: opium. In the next few years, the amount of opium imported to China increases dramatically. Tensions arise because, in China, opium can only be used as a medicine. It has been banned as a recreational drug for more than 100 years.

April 1839 - Lin Zexu is sent to Canton and 20,000 chests of opium are burnt

Emperor Daoguang sends government official Lin Zexu to Canton. He has already cracked down on the use of opium in Hubei and now focuses on Canton. Lin asks the British to surrender all their opium and sign an agreement to stop trading in the drug. Charles Elliot, the British superintendent of trade, agrees and promises the merchants they will be compensated by the British government. But he has no authority to sign the bond, and he wants the British to be allowed to trade along the eastern coast of China and not be confined to Canton. He threatens to stop trade until a compromise is reached. But some traders who are not dealing in opium sign the deal.

July 1839 - The Kowloon Incident

A crew of American and British sailors arrives in Kowloon in search of provisions. They get drunk on rice wine and kill a man. Lin demands that the sailors be tried in a Chinese court, citing a Swiss law that gave them jurisdiction over all foreigners. Elliot refuses and delays their sentencing, eventually giving them prison terms that were never to be met. Tensions increase.


1839 - The first shots

One British merchant ship that has lost faith in Elliot ignores the ban. Elliot blockades the Pearl River. A second ship tries to run the blockade. British ships chase after it and fire the first shots of what will become the Opium war. The Chinese navy tries to protect the merchant ship, which is not trading in opium, and a battle ensues. The Chinese suffer many losses; the British only one injury. This is the first battle of Chuenpee.


April 1840 - Motion to go to war passed

The British government, after much delay and debate, narrowly passes a motion for war against China. The war is funded by the government and seeks to force China to open up trade along the eastern coast.


Summer 1840 - The occupation of Zhoushan and first talks of Hong Kong's cession

British forces gather off the coast of Macau with Elliot and his cousin, George Elliot, in charge. The British occupy Zhoushan and its principal town Dinghai, fighting almost unopposed. Meanwhile, Lin has fallen from the emperor's favour.


January 1841 - Negotiations

Second battle of Cheunpee happens on January 17. Lin has been replaced with Imperial Commissioner Qishan who is eager to negotiate with the British. Elliot asks for seven million dollars over six years and several inland ports. Qishan agrees to give the British six million over 12 years, but rejects the possibility of inland ports. The British prepare for battle and Qishan reconsiders. They finally agree to the Treaty of Chuanbi which cedes Hong Kong Island and six million dollars to the British. This treaty is rejected by both governments. Fighting resumes along the eastern shore.


Summer 1842 - The Treaty of Nanking

British forces beat the Chinese right up to the Yangtze, and occupy Shanghai. The Chinese suffer many casualties and are forced to surrender. On August 29, the Treaty of Nanking is signed, five ports (Canton, Ziamen, Fuzhou, Ningbo and Shanghai) are opened and Hong Kong is ceded to the British.

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Young American’s first-hand account of second opium war: bloody battles and ‘hospitable’ Chinese 

The journals of George Washington (Farley) Heard, who would go on to become chairman of the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation, (HSBC) reveal what happened when he found himself caught between Anglo-French forces and Chinese defenders in 1859
Gillian Bickley 19 Apr, 2018 Post Magazine / Books

The Toey-Wan during the Second Battle of Taku Forts at the mouth of the Peiho River on June 25, 1859, in a lithograph by T.G. Dutton. Picture: courtesy of George W. H. Cautherley

The second opium war, 1856-60. When in 1856, the 1844 US-China Treaty of Wangxia expired, American envoy to China William Reed set about negotiating new terms of trade, permission for diplomatic residence in Beijing and the extension of religious freedom to Christians.

Following the eventual conclusion of these negotiations, in 1859, his successor, American minister John Ward, embarked in Hong Kong aboard the USS Powhatan destined for Beijing, accompanied by the hired steamer Toey-Wan, on a mission to ratify what had become known as the Treaty of Tientsin (Tianjin).

George Washington (Farley) Heard. Picture: courtesy of Skinner, Inc.

Among those he took with him was George Washington (Farley) Heard. Ward had met Heard, an American of about 22 years of age, en route to Hong Kong from America and, having taken a liking to the young man, asked him to join the American Legation as an attaché.


Heard had been travelling east to join his uncle’s firm, Augustine Heard and Company, one of the two largest American trading companies in China from the 1840s to the 1870s. He would later manage the com­pany in Canton, and serve as the chairman of the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation in 1870.

At the same time as the American party was setting out from Hong Kong, an Anglo-French naval force began making its way north from Shanghai with newly appointed envoys for embassies in Beijing. But while the Americans – neutrals in the opium wars – were welcome, the British and French were less so.

When, towards the end of June 1859, the British began to remove barricades placed across the Peiho River by the Chinese to arrest their progress towards the capital, they came under attack. The second of three battles for the Taku Forts to take place during the second opium war ensued, an engagement that caused serious loss of British life and vessels, and which the Americans witnessed at close quarters.

Heard provided the following first-hand account of the battle in a journal he kept throughout his time with the legation, and now published by Proverse Hong Kong as Through American Eyes.

The USS Powhatan, circa 1859. Picture: courtesy of Gillian Bickley


USS “Powhatan” off Peiho
27 June 1859
On the 24th June, the “Toey-Wan” having on board Commodore Tattnall, Captain Pearson and a few of the officers of the ship – Mr Ward the Minister and Mr W[ard] his Secretary and the three interpreters, Mr Lurman and myself got under weigh at 8am to endeavour to communicate with the shore and send news of Mr W[ard]’s arrival and demand permission to proceed to Peking, there to ratify the Treaty of Tientsin [Tianjin].

Got over the bar and at 10am we were unfortunate enough, or as it turned out to be, fortunate enough to get hard aground on the mud at the entrance to the Peiho River which extends out at some distance from the shore and is bare at low water. We got on it at low high water and so we were high and dry at low tide.

When in this position the Admiral of the English sent a gunboat “Plover” 86 to our assistance with the exceedingly courteous offer – that if we couldn’t get off, to take the “86” and raise our flag on her and use her entirely as if she was an American ship. Before this, however, the tide had gone down so much it was found impossible to move her and Commodore Tattnall declined the amiable offer of the Admiral thinking he should be able to get off with the next flood.

At 2pm we sent on the barge with the Interpreters and Lieutenant Trenchard to find out whether there was anybody there of sufficient rank to communicate with.

The answer was negative. The party was received at the end of a jetty by about forty men, one of whom was spokesman. He said that there [are] very few men in the forts, no mandarin there even of the sixth rank (white button), that they had received orders from Peking not to allow any vessel to enter the river, and that they should be obliged to fire on anyone endeavouring to pass and break down the barriers.

We managed luckily to get off at about 8.30pm and we anchored outside the English ships, between the “Coromandel” and the junks which contained the English marines and their reserve forces of sailors and troops.

During the night, the first barrier was blown up by the English, who received a shot from the forts.

The barriers appeared to be three in number – the first: Iron stakes of this form connected with heavy chains, which was the one blown up by the English during the night of the 24th; the second barrier was of stakes; and the third, as I learned, was composed of heavy booms and logs chained securely together. Captain Wills swam up to it and found it a hundred and fifty foot wide and very strong. The forts were of this form and arrangement –

A sketch by George Washington (Farley) Heard, circa 1859. 

Picture: Baker Library, Harvard Business School


– seven in all – see over

Another sketch by Heard to illustrate the formation of the 

forts, circa 1859. Picture: Baker Library, Harvard Business School

At daylight the following morning the English began disposing of their forces. – Their ships outside the bar were:–

“Chesapeake” “Highflyer” “Magicienne”, “Fury”, “Assistance”, “Cruiser” and “Hesper”. The gunboats inside were:– “Kestrel” 69, “Janus” 76, “Plover” 86, “Banterer” 79, “Opossum” 94, “Forester” 87, “Lee” 82, “Starling” 93. In addition to these forces were the “Nimrod”, “Cormorant”, two large dispatch boats, and the “Coromandel” (the Admiral’s tender which was afterwards used as the Hospital ship).

The French had their gunboat with sixty-four men on board – the “Nosagari” in cooperation with the English forces.

The “Toey-Wan” remained at the same anchorage she had taken during the night. The gunboats all moved in towards the forts about 8am, with the exception of the “Coromandel” and the “Nosagari”. The Admiral Hope had transferred his flag to the “Plover” 86, and we saw him sitting amidships on a coil of rope going in ahead of everybody else. The gunboats soon got in near the forts, where some of them got aground and the rest anchored near them.

All the eight forts opened their fire at nearly the same time and they all seemed to direct their fire on the Admiral’s ship, which they distinguished by his square blue flag. The execution by the heavy guns of the forts was terrible

The “Coromandel” and “Nosagari” went in about noon and took up their position on the extreme left of the squadron, the “Nosagari” being inside of the “Coromandel”.

No movement was made till 2.30pm on either side, when the “Plover”, followed by the “Kestrel” and “Cormorant”, steamed up by the first barrier to the second and commenced pulling up the stakes. One had already been pulled out and the second one loosened when at 2.40pm the middle fort number three fired a heavy gun at the “Plover”. The fire was returned by the “Cormorant” and the cannonading became general throughout the forces on both sides. The forts discharged their guns almost as rapidly as the English and did great execution. All the eight forts opened their fire at nearly the same time and they all seemed to direct their fire on the Admiral’s ship, which they distinguished by his square blue flag.

The execution by the heavy guns of the forts was terrible. The men were twice swept away from their quarters on board the “Plover” and in less than an hour she only had three men left. The Admiral transferred his flag on board the “Opossum” 94 and she was terribly shot. Six men killed outright and many more severely wounded. He then went on board the “Cormorant”, where he remained till night. He himself was severely wounded in the beginning of the action but like a gallant fellow, as he is, refused to be carried below, but remained on deck among his men. The first shot fired from the forts took the head off the Captain of the “Plover” 86. [Rayson] his name was and a fine young sailor, as I ever saw. He came on board the “Toey-Wan” the day previous, when we were aground, to offer his assistance in the name of the Admiral.

Dark legacy of Britain’s opium wars still felt today amid fight against drug addiction and trafficking

We found we were just out of range of shot where we were at anchor and so we remained there. At about 4pm as we were sitting down to dinner, a young fellow from the Admiral’s ship, the “Plover”, at that time, came on board of the “Toey-Wan”, told us the state of the things, and asked us for the Admiral, to assist in towing up the reserve boats of the English. The tide and wind were both against them, and in rowing they would not have been able to reach the scene of battle for a great while. The boats were lying just astern of us and [we?] were hanging on to the junks.

Commodore Tattnall consulted with Mr Ward, and both concluded to do it, thinking it a course which met with their “unqualified approbation”. The Commodore then ordered us to the junks – I mean the US Legation to go to the junks – saying a steamer about to tow up the English boats into the middle of the fire was not the proper place for Mr Ward when the English and French Ministers were both aboard their respective vessels ten miles off.

As the order was peremptory we were obliged to obey and the barge pulled us on board.

They paddled up to the “Cormorant” on the debris of the boat and found the Admiral lying on the deck and heads, arms and legs lying round in every direction, and the decks streaming with blood

The “Toey-Wan” then towed up the boats of the English and anchored herself between the “Nosagari” and the “Coromandel”, both of whom were firing very rapidly. The “Toey-Wan” remained there three-quarters of an hour and while in that position the Commodore went to pay a visit to the Admiral to offer his sympathy to a wounded brother officer, who was severely wounded and who was suffering a mortifying defeat. He pulled up in the middle of one of the hottest fires that ever came from the forts, and when nearly alongside of the “Cormorant”, the ship on which the Admiral was at the time, a shot struck his boat, knocking the stern sheets out of it, throwing the Commodore and Lieutenant Trenchard out of their seats and killing the coxswain. They paddled up to the “Cormorant” on the debris of the boat and found the Admiral lying on the deck and heads, arms and legs lying round in every direction, and the decks streaming with blood.

While the Commodore was on board, a lieutenant was brought up dead and laid on deck and two men were struck down at a gun. An English boat came alongside at this time and the officer in charge offered to take the Commodore and his barge’s crew back to the “Toey-Wan”. Three of the barge’s crew could not be found in the excitement: they came back to the “Toey-Wan” in the middle of the night, and when asked where they had been they replied that –

“They found themselves in the way and they thought their only way to get out of the way was to go to the guns”.

The Toey-Wan during the Second Battle of Taku Forts at the mouth of the Peiho River on June 25, 1859, in a lithograph by T.G. Dutton. Picture: courtesy of George W. H. Cautherley


By this time the fire from the forts had slackened considerably and the English determined to bring out all their boats, land a storming party, and endeavour to carry them. For this purpose two gunboats, the “Opossum” and another came out of the fire as did the “Toey-Wan” for the rest of the boats.


Mr Ward determined to remain no longer on the junk but get back to the “Toey-Wan” and go in to danger with her, and of course we (i.e. young Ward, Lurman and me) determined to go too. Mr Ward went to the “Toey-Wan” in the boat of Captain Wills of the “Chesapeake”. The Interpreters remained on the junks. Young W[ard], Lurman and myself all got on the “Opossum” at first, but afterwards went to the “Toey-Wan” in a boat sent for us.


We had about a hundred marines on board the “Toey-Wan”.


As we approached the forts, the firing did not seem to increase, and nearly everybody seemed to think an easy victory would be gained by the stormers.


The boats all collected within the lee of the ships and giving three cheers pulled in to land.

Then it seemed as if a flame burst out all over the eight forts, so rapid was the fire, and such execution it made. We could see the shot strike in and around the boats in every direction, and every shot took effect. Whole rows of poor fellows were mowed down at a time. One boat was cut in two by a shot and many men killed in her and the rest were picked up by the other boats.

The “Nimrod” and the gunboats were firing shot and shell, and rockets to protect the stormers and cover their landing. The red sun was just going down behind the middle fort, as they landed, and it was a wild-looking sight. The whistling of the small balls, the fierce roar of the heavy ones, and the bursting of the shell and rockets made the little “Toey-Wan” tremble all over. A great many shots struck all about the “Toey” but not one hit the boat itself. One shot passed between the awning and the deck between Mr Ward and myself and fell into the water within ten or thirteen feet of her counter and a great many fell between us and the Frenchman, who was anchored on our right.

Then it seemed as if a flame burst out all over the eight forts, so rapid was the fire, and such execution it made [...] One boat was cut in two by a shot and many men killed in her

As we found afterwards the boats of the storming party could not approach near the shore as the water was so shallow, and as soon as the boats touched, a good many of the men jumped out and sank in up [to] their necks in the mud and water, in which position several were drowned before they could extricate themselves. Those who got to the shore wet their powder so none of them could return a shot and the fire from the forts was so fatal that a great many were killed. It is estimated that a hundred men were lost during the landing alone.

When they got to the shore, they found there was a deep ditch, through which they had to wade, waist deep – then a little hard mud, then another ditch filled with mud and water, that could only be passed in swimming, and then there was a third ditch filled with mud and water, and sharp iron spikes and lances. Very few of the men got up to the walls of the forts, which were about twenty-five foot high, and swarming with men, who fired at them with rifles, gingalls [a type of gun], and arrows, which were very long and barbed in such a manner that when the arrow entered the flesh, the head detached itself and remained in the wound.

The few men who succeeded in getting to the walls tried to scale them with ladders but the ladders broke and they found there was no safety but in flight. Captains Commerell of the “Nimrod” and Heath of the “Assistance” told me that when they were at the foot of the walls they had to lie close in under them, and as soon as a head was seen, the Chinese sent a bullet through it – that the Chinese were armed with real Minie Rifles, [and] were large men wearing fur caps. Captain Commerell, who was in the Crimea, says he repeatedly heard the Russian word for “powder” cried within the walls, and a good many of the marines who were in the same position heard the same word used. Several men declare they heard in good English, “Why in the devil don’t you pass that powder up?”

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Whether this latter was the effect of their imagination or not I don’t know, but I am inclined to believe what Captain Commerell says. I think there were other men than Chinamen inside the walls probably some runaway sailors or mercenary Russians. They understood the science of gunnery too well not to have been trained to their guns, and they stood to them well. The Chinese burnt blue lights etc. as soon as it was dark and shot down the men by their lights.

They began to come off from the shore about 10pm and kept coming off all night. Several boats came to the “Toey-Wan”, where the crews were supplied with food and shelter; other boats made fast to her stern and lay there all night.

The “Nimrod” and the “Coromandel” anchored close by us during the night. The firing from the forts continued at intervals all night, and during the day. In the morning we did all we could to assist the English, in getting their wounded off etc., etc. We could see in the morning the Chinese walking about on the beach in front of the forts cutting off the heads of the dead and wounded; others were picking up the swords, guns and pistols etc. that were lying about on the beach.

We came out to ships about 11am, towing out two large launches filled with wounded and bringing out the first news of the battle to the English and French Ministers.

Hart the Commodore’s Coxswain was buried in the evening: and it was a solemn one after the scenes we had passed through.

An engraving of the attack by Anglo-French forces on the Chinese fortifications at the mouth of the Peiho River, on June 24 and 25, 1859. Picture: courtesy of George W. H. Cautherley

USS “Powhatan” off Peiho River 29 June 1859

The Chinese had told us, when we sent our boat on shore [on] the 24th, that the real Peiho River was ten miles farther North. The Commodore determined to send the “Toey-Wan” up there to see if there was a river and endeavour to communicate with the authorities, and leave a letter from Mr Ward to the Governor General of this Province to announce his arrival “dans ces parages” [in this area].

I got leave to accompany the party which consisted of Messrs W.W. Ward, Martin, Aitchison, and Dr Williams and Lieutenant Habersham. It was sort of a Men of Wars cruise “there and back again”.

We left the “Powhatan” at 10.30am and got under weigh at 11.30. It was a beautiful day though rather windy and rough. Our course was North about five knots an hour and we carried on this course five fathoms of water as far as six miles from the “Powhatan”. The flood tides in this part of the Gulf of Pechelee sets to the North outside the bar. [The] Wind was North North West.

A good many large junks were seen about four miles North of the forts at the mouth of the Peiho, and large piles of salt dotted the shore in every direction. The shore was very low and there seemed to be a dike along the shore as we could see in almost every part of it junk masts above the land.

When our party told the Chinese they were from the United States of America, the Chinese asked them where it was, saying they had never heard of that country

The water shoaled very gradually, but as we stood into toward land we got to ten foot water where we anchored to take bearings etc. We were about three to four miles from shore, and could distinctly see a large entrance, the mouth of it crowded with junks’ masts, of which there was a whole forest. In the middle of the entrance there were two islands apparently, one of which was very thickly covered with houses and the other entirely covered by an immense square fort, made of the same material as those at the mouth of the Peiho – mud – junks’ masts all round, hulls down out of sight. –

On the left bank of the entrance as you approach it from the sea, was a large round fort with long wings extending away back out of sight, and seemingly connecting with another square fort also on the left bank. It looked like a very strongly fortified place and a place too of much importance if one may judge from the great number of junks, in and around the entrance. Behind the fort was a very large village containing several Joss houses whose peaked roofs stand above the surrounding houses. There were a number of tall trees resembling poplars near the village.

Country looked fertile and populous – vast number of junks. We were near enough the forts to see men at work on the tops of the bastions with our glasses (binoculars or telescope).

After getting bearings of the forts etc. we stood to the Northward, and found ourselves in a bight of the coast, and at the water’s edge were a number of villages. I counted six of them in sight and near us at the same time. [The] country looked fertile and apparently swarming with population. We anchored in two fathoms about two and a half miles from one of them and sent an armed boat in, with Messrs Merchant, midshipman, Martin, Interpreter, and Ward, Secretary of Legation.

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As they approached the shore the Chinese streamed out of the village; men, women and children running as fast as they could go. Three junks were anchored near shore, and as the boat got near them, their crews jumped out and waded and swam ashore.

The boat soon grounded and as the gentlemen in it couldn’t get the boat in further, got into the water to wade ashore. The crew remained in the boat. As the three got near the shore three-quarters of a mile from their boat, two carriages drawn by four horses each started off full gallop, from the village – and everyone was in full flight. However, two or three men remained and came down to meet the party. They were very large men, two of them almost giants – there were soon about twenty collected round their party and the interpreter found no one of them could read (having different dialects, characters were often used to communicate).

Another man came down from the village who was one of the local authorities. He received the letter for the Governor General and then told the party that [there] were four thousand troops encamped in the vicinity and that a courier had gone off to call for their cavalry and advised them to run for their boat as fast as possible, saying that the villagers were all well disposed enough towards foreigners, but the soldiers were Tartars who recognized no distinction between foreign barbarians. The Chinese all called out to them to run fast – and so they did. Before they could get to their boat the shore seemed alive with cavalry two of whom chased our party in the water till they got up [to] their waists. They got to the boat safely but very much fatigued and pulled back to the “Toey-Wan”.

Two or three men remained and came down to meet the party. They were very large men, two of them almost giants – there were soon about twenty collected round their party and the interpreter found no one of them could read

When our party told the Chinese they were from the United States of America, the Chinese asked them where it was, saying they had never heard of that country.

This part of the country seemed very fertile indeed and there was a great number of inhabitants. A good many junks were seen standing to the Northward, and I saw one under full sail just behind the beach where our party went ashore. We could also [see] many masts over the land. There were not many trees to be seen, but a number of shrubs and bushes.

Returned to the “Powhatan” at 8.30pm.

An engraving of the attack by Anglo-French forces on the 

Chinese fortifications at the mouth of the Peiho River, on

 June 24 and 25, 1859. 

Picture: courtesy of George W. H. Cautherley


USS “Powhatan” Off Peiho River 4 July 1859

The “Glorious Fourth” – as they call it, and no doubt every village, town and city in the United States is ringing and shaking from bells, crackers, guns and cannon today. We are celebrating the day in a quiet manner enough. The American Ensign waves from each mast head, and the spanker gaff, and at noon we fired a salute of twenty-one big guns. This, together with a bottle of champagne at dinner, comprised our celebrations. All the English and French ships at the anchorage hoisted the American flag at the main mast head out of compliment to us and kept it there all day.

The English have been employed all the week in getting their gunboats off and in taking care of their wounded etc., etc. They had six boats ashore and sunk on Sunday morning the 26th. The “Lee” 82, “Plover” 86, “Starling” 93, “Kestrel” 69, “Haughty” 89, and the “Cormorant”.

They have succeeded in saving all but the “Lee”, “Plover” and “Cormorant” which they have destroyed. The forts have been firing on them all the week, and I understand have killed several more men.

The English estimate their loss at 452 – 87 killed, wounded 363 and missing [sic].

On the 2nd July the Chinese sent a junk with a letter from the Taoutai of the village, to announce that the letter given by our party to the men on the beach had been forwarded to the Governor General at Tientsin. The Taoutai sent another junk containing twenty sheep, twenty pigs, sixty ducks and chickens and 2,500 lbs of rice and flour and a great quantity of fruit etc.

The “Glorious Fourth” – as they call it, and no doubt every village, town and city in the United States is ringing and shaking from bells, crackers, guns and cannon today. We are celebrating the day in a quiet manner enough

USS “Powhatan” off Peiho River 7 July 1859

On the 5th July, two white button mandarins (sixth order) came off to the ship with an answer to Mr Ward’s letter, written by the Governor General – and inviting Mr Ward to an interview. Mr Ward has appointed tomorrow as the day and we are going on board the “Toey-Wan” this evening to stand in and so go in tomorrow morning.

The mandarins were shown all over the ship and they were apparently much pleased and astonished at the guns and machinery.

I went on board the “Chesapeake” last night with Lurman, Habersham and Semmes to make a visit and aid young Wish. –

“Fury” sailed on Monday 4th, “Du Chayla” and her tender, and “Assistance” on Tuesday 5th, “Magicienne” [on] Wednesday 6th. Mr Bruce and Rumbold came on board on Monday to see Mr Ward.

10.30pm
I went on board the “Toey-Wan” this afternoon at three with Messrs Wards, Martin, Lurman and Commodore Tattnall and Lieutenants Habersham and Trenchard. Got under weigh at 3.20pm, the “Powhatan” having got up her anchor, and following us into an anchorage nearer shore. Found a good anchorage for her in twenty-seven feet [of] water, and then we stood in towards land. Saw the forts and we anchored in two fathoms [of] water. Several junks were in sight two and a half miles from us, and we sent the boat to them. I went in her with some others. Rough water and we sailed very fast. Heard on board the first junk [that] there were several mandarins on board another one further in.

Went on board of her and found a blue button, crystal and white button mandarin on board with a numerous retinue. We went in the dirty little cabin where they spread several cushions etc. for us to sit on and they squatted down too. Passed round some delicious tea and some very nice little sponge cakes, which were very palatable as we were rather hungry. Then there was another kind of cake made of beans – it looked like brick dust and tasted very much like it too. One of them had a very small bottle filled with some kind of white snuff which he passed over to me. I tried it and found it rather agreeable – it was a powder that might have been composed of camphor and musk. The blue button mandarin had on a tunic, or whatever they call it, of blue navy cloth, very fine texture, and Mr Martin said it was Russian cloth, and that he [Martin] had bought it at Ningpo and cheaper than he could have done in America or Europe.

These Mandarins were as hospitable as possible and all smiles etc. – no allusion was made on either side to the battle of the 25th June

They called the American flag, the “flowery flag”, and said they should know us very well. They are going to send us a boat tomorrow, and they have buoyed the whole channel [plotting a safe path]. I have got a line of soundings from the anchorage of the “Toey-Wan” to the junks. They tell us there is 30 foot of water in shore under the batteries and that there is water communication from this place up to Tientsin. I don’t know the name of the place – but it’s the same place so strongly fortified we saw on the 29th June. We go in tomorrow in full uniform to an interview with the Governor General. The Mandarins told us we must be particularly careful not to go anywhere, where the guides do not take us, as the city is all a mass of ambuscades for the English.

These Mandarins were as hospitable as possible and all smiles etc. – no allusion was made on either side to the battle of the 25th June. Tomorrow I shall have something to write about, I think, but there’s nothing now.

Text © P.roverse Hong Kong 2017. 

Through American Eyes, edited by Gillian Bickley and transcribed by Chris Duggan is published by Proverse Hong Kong

In imperial China, opium was not the only drug of choice – a strange powdered substance was a hit among the elite

From the third to fifth centuries, the psychotropic drug wu shi san or ‘five stone powder’ was a popular for its ability to open ‘the spirit and mind’
Wee Kek Koon Published: 9 Apr, 2020

An engraving of a 19th-century Chinese opium den. Photo: Shutterstock


I am late to the Netflix game but in the weeks of not so splendid isolation, I have plunged down an enthralling rabbit hole from which extrication could be difficult when this is over. As part of my new-found addiction to television, I have been binge-watching Breaking Bad (2008-13), the US series about a cash-strapped, cancer-stricken chemistry teacher with a sideline in “cooking” methamphetamine.


Television and salty snacks aside, I am lucky to have never been addicted to harmful substances such as tobacco, alcohol or drugs. Having said that, I sympathise with the millions around the world who are battling addiction in all its debilitating forms, as well as their loved ones and carers. I know people who suffered devastating losses from addiction, including a relative who lost his life, and the effects on their families were heart-rending.
Opium has often been associated with drug dependence in imperial China. The first and second opium wars between China and Britain in the mid-19th century
gave shape to the Hong Kong we know today. 

The history of opioid use in China goes back at least to the Tang dynasty (618-907), but “poppy tears” was not the only psychotropic substance known to the ancient Chinese.

During the Wei and Jin period (AD220-420), a substance called wu shi san (“five stone powder”) was popular among the elite. Its main ingredients were stalactites, fluorite, quartz, sulphur and halloysite clay or kaolin, which had been pulverised and mixed in specific proportions.

An immediate effect of taking wu shi san was a sudden rise in body temperature, which was mitigated by eating cold foods, taking cold baths or engaging in strenuous physical activities, such as walking long distances, to cool down the body through perspiration. There were records of users going naked in winter or eating snow because they were unbearably hot.

They also experienced an “opening of the spirit and mind”, which some have interpreted to mean hallucinations. And it had an aphrodisiac effect on men.

An early advocate of ingesting wu shi san was He Yan (AD196-249), son-in-law of the famous warlord Cao Cao and brother-in-law of the first emperor of the Wei dynasty. With his erudition, high social status and good looks, He Yan would be considered an “influencer” today.

Perhaps because of this “celebrity” status, the bizarre behaviour of He Yan and those taking the substance was celebrated as fashionable. Groups would take it together, and amuse or shock each other with outrageous conduct before falling into a stupor.

Long-term users exhibited incoherent speech and thought processes. They were also perpetually distracted. Physically, they suffered swellings and painful limbs, and some cases resulted in death. Wu shi sanwent out of fashion by the 5th century.

In 667, the Byzantine empire sent a mission to Emperor Gaozong of the Tang dynasty. Among the gifts they bore was a salve for the emperor’s frequent headaches, which the Chinese called di ye jia. This was theriaca, or theriac, a medical concoction invented by the ancient Greeks, which often contained opium for analgesic effect.

Soon the Chinese discovered the uses and pleasures of the substance derived from the milk of poppy, which centuries later, the British produced and sold in substantial quantities to the Chinese market.

---30---

China has won PR war against US over Covid-19
Both countries are spinning tales full of falsehoods, but what is undeniable is that one side has the disease under control while the other is still waiting, in horror, for it to peak

SCMP Columnist My Take by Alex Lo

Published: 10 Apr, 2020

Wars are won by the side that makes fewer fatal mistakes. As Leo Tolstoy has argued in War and Peace, to the eternal chagrin of armchair strategists and military buffs, even the best-laid military plan goes up in smoke the minute the first shot is fired. All you have left is a cascade of failures, misunderstanding and incompetence leading to ultimate collapse. In other words, the victor wins by default, not by design.

In the propaganda war between China and the United States over the Covid-19 pandemic, China has already won. However, it’s not because it had a better plan, strategy or preparedness, but because the other side has been so extraordinarily incompetent, almost wilfully so.


It certainly does not mean China has a superior political system. What we are seeing, rather, is the systemic failure of the US under the Trump White House at a fundamental institutional level.

Many politicians and pundits have called on China and the US to work together during this unprecedented health crisis. But there is little chance of that. As in any war, both sides have already turned it into a fight for the hearts and minds of their domestic audience and international community. Both are trying to shape the global narrative. Both are spinning tales full of falsehoods.

But what everyone can see is that on the one side, the number of new cases has been declining steadily while the other is well on its way to become the worst-hit of all similarly developed countries, even though it is the richest and most powerful. Results speak for themselves. Blaming China won’t save American lives. It may, however, deflect responsibility.

But, to begin with, both sides were almost deliberately unprepared. Among others, respected researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention had warned their respective governments for years that a coming “plague” of global proportion was a matter of time.

Yet, when it hit, Chinese authorities suppressed information about the new disease while Donald Trump downplayed and denied its impact. The latter has fewer excuses, though, when many countries have already been hit. But the real difference is that Beijing eventually mobilised a whole-of-government response while Washington, even now, is still playing catchup.

Trump said on March 13: “I don’t take responsibility at all.” That’s why Beijing has won.

---30---

Alex Lo has been a Post columnist since 2012, covering major issues affecting Hong Kong and the rest of China. A journalist for 25 years, he has worked for various publications in Hong Kong and Toronto as a news reporter and editor. He has also lectured in journalism at the University of Hong Kong.

DOOMED! I SAY! WE ARE ALL DOOMED!
While we fixate on coronavirus, Earth is hurtling towards a catastrophe worse than the dinosaur extinction

Published April 10, 2020 By The Conversation


At several points in the history of our planet, increasing amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have caused extreme global warming, prompting the majority of species on Earth to die out.

In the past, these events were triggered by a huge volcanic eruption or asteroid impact. Now, Earth is heading for another mass extinction – and human activity is to blame.

I am an Earth and Paleo-climate scientist and have researched the relationships between asteroid impacts, volcanism, climate changes and mass extinctions of species.

Read more:
Here’s what the coronavirus pandemic can teach us about tackling climate change

My research suggests the current growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions is faster than those which triggered two previous mass extinctions, including the event that wiped out the dinosaurs.

The world’s gaze may be focused on COVID-19 right now. But the risks to nature from human-made global warming – and the imperative to act – remain clear.

The current rate of CO2 emissions is a major event in the recorded history of Earth.

EPA

Past mass extinctions

Many species can adapt to slow, or even moderate, environmental changes. But Earth’s history shows that extreme shifts in the climate can cause many species to become extinct.

For example, about 66 million years ago an asteroid hit Earth. The subsequent smashed rocks and widespread fires released massive amounts of carbon dioxide over about 10,000 years. Global temperatures soared, sea levels rose and oceans became acidic. About 80% of species, including the dinosaurs, were wiped out.

And about 55 million years ago, global temperatures spiked again, over 100,000 years or so. The cause of this event, known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, is not entirely clear. One theory, known as the “methane burp” hypothesis, posits that a massive volcanic eruption triggered the sudden release of methane from ocean sediments, making oceans more acidic and killing off many species.

So is life on Earth now headed for the same fate?

Comparing greenhouse gas levels

Before industrial times began at the end of the 18th century, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere sat at around 300 parts per million. This means that for every one million molecules of gas in the atmosphere, 300 were carbon dioxide.

In February this year, atmospheric carbon dioxide reached 414.1 parts per million. Total greenhouse gas level – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide combined – reached almost 500 parts per million of carbon dioxide-equivalent

Author provided/The Conversation, CC BY-ND

Carbon dioxide is now pouring into the atmosphere at a rate of two to three parts per million each year.

Using carbon records stored in fossils and organic matter, I have determined that current carbon emissions constitute an extreme event in the recorded history of Earth.

My research has demonstrated that annual carbon dioxide emissions are now faster than after both the asteroid impact that eradicated the dinosaurs (about 0.18 parts per million CO2 per year), and the thermal maximum 55 million years ago (about 0.11 parts per million CO2 per year).

An asteroid wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago.
Shutterstock

The next mass extinction has begun

Current atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are not yet at the levels seen 55 million and 65 million years ago. But the massive influx of carbon dioxide means the climate is changing faster than many plant and animal species can adapt.

A major United Nations report released last year warned around one million animal and plant species were threatened with extinction. Climate change was listed as one of five key drivers.

The report said the distributions of 47% of land-based flightless mammals, and almost 25% of threatened birds, may already have been negatively affected by climate change.

Read more:
Curious Kids: What effect did the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs have on plants and trees?

Many researchers fear the climate system is approaching a tipping point – a threshold beyond which rapid and irreversible changes will occur. This will create a cascade of devastating effects.

There are already signs tipping points have been reached. For example, rising Arctic temperatures have led to major ice melt, and weakened the Arctic jet stream – a powerful band of westerly winds.

A diagram showing the weakening Arctic jet stream, and subsequent movements of warm and cold air. NASA

This allows north-moving warm air to cross the polar boundary, and cold fronts emanating from the poles to intrude south into Siberia, Europe and Canada.

A shift in climate zones is also causing the tropics to expand and migrate toward the poles, at a rate of about 56 to 111 kilometres per decade. The tracks of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones are likewise shifting toward the poles. Australia is highly vulnerable to this shift.

Uncharted future climate territory

Research released in 2016 showed just what a massive impact humans are having on the planet. It said while the Earth might naturally have entered the next ice age in about 20,000 years’ time, the heating produced by carbon dioxide would result in a period of super-tropical conditions, delaying the next ice age to about 50,000 years from now.

During this period, chaotic high-energy stormy conditions would prevail over much of the Earth. My research suggests humans are likely to survive best in sub-polar regions and sheltered mountain valleys, where cooler conditions would allow flora and fauna to persist.

Earth’s next mass extinction is avoidable – if carbon dioxide emissions are dramatically curbed and we develop and deploy technologies to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. But on the current trajectory, human activity threatens to make large parts of the Earth uninhabitable – a planetary tragedy of our own making.

Read more:
Anatomy of a heatwave: how Antarctica recorded a 20.75°C day last month


Andrew Glikson, Earth and paleo-climate scientist, Australian National University


This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The election of 1940 and the might-have been presidential candidates that make one shudder


Published April 10, 2020 By History News Network


The Presidential Election of 1940 is well remembered as being one of the most crucial elections in American history, and rightfully.

America was facing the growing threat of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, as World War II raged all over the globe. Meanwhile, in America, the isolationist crusade, as the central domestic controversy raging in America, was in full swing, as the America First Committee was having a dramatic effect on the nation, with many leading public figures of all political stripes, vehemently demanding that America stay out of the war, best personified by the organization’s most influential spokesman, famous aviator Charles Lindbergh.

So the issue of staying out of war was the focus of the campaign, with the issue of a third term for President Franklin D. Roosevelt also promoting furious debate, as FDR pledged that he had no intentions of taking America to war, but his isolationist opponents convinced that his ultimate purpose was to enter the war on the side of Great Britain.

Franklin D. Roosevelt went on to win a substantial victory over the only Presidential nominee in American history to have no government experience, utilities executive Wendell Willkie of Indiana, who “conquered” the Republican National Convention with his soaring oratory. Willkie was very appealing to many as an “outsider”, and his charisma converted many people, but at the end, he lost out, but became a supporter of the World War II war effort, wishing to aid Great Britain even as a candidate, antagonizing the party that had nominated him for the White House. His cooperating with FDR and defying many in the Republican Party, infuriated party leaders who complained that this former Democrat was “flip flopping” on an issue, isolationism, which had united the Republican Party against the President. By supporting FDR on aid to Great Britain, Willkie took away the key issue of the Republican Party at the time, for which they never forgave him,

It seems clear the Willkie would have followed a similar pattern as FDR did in 1941 on aid to Great Britain, through Lend Lease, and would have pursued the war effort in similar fashion, and Willkie acted as an informal foreign envoy for the President during the war. By 1944, with the assumption that FDR would not seek a fourth term, Willkie made an attempt to win the Republican nomination, but bowed out of the race before the Republican National Convention.

Willkie’s role in history is significant for aiding FDR in the debates and strategy for America in World War II, but history also tells something not generally recognized. Willkie was only 52 in 1944, but he was in poor health, due to bad eating habits, incessant smoking, and heavy drinking, all of which went unreported. In October, he suffered a series of heart attacks, and died, so had he been the GOP nominee that year, he would not have made it alive to the election, unprecedented in American history.

But even more amazing is that this means that had Willkie won in 1940 over FDR, he would have died in office at a crucial moment when D Day had occurred, but the Battle of the Bulge had not yet happened. There was yet no certainty that America would prevail on the European or Asian war fronts. And one might say, well, his Vice President would have succeeded him, BUT his running mate in 1940, Oregon Senator Charles McNary, Senate Minority Leader throughout the New Deal years, actually had died eight months earlier in February, 1944, succumbing to a brain tumor which had been a problem for a year before his death.

So that means for the only time in American history, the potential President and Vice President in the Presidential Election of 1940 would both have died in office, leaving the Presidency to whoever would have been Secretary of State, under the Presidential Succession Law of 1886!

The whole history of World War II MIGHT have been very different, and certainly much more complicated by such a scenario. But ironically, now as we look back, we realize that FDR was dying, but made it through the Presidential Election of 1944, unwilling to retire but making the decision to choose Harry Truman to replace Henry A. Wallace as Vice President, itself a turning point in American history with massive long term ramifications!

So the 1940 Presidential Election had much more impact than most historians have actually recognized, and could be argued to be among the top five Presidential elections in historical impact, joining those in 1860, 1932, 2000, and 2008!




Ronald L. Feinman, Author, “Assassinations, Threats, And The American Presidency: From Andrew Jackson To Barack Obama,” Rowman Littlefield Publishers, August 2015.




Enjoy good journalis

Trump holds support of political base in virus-prone states

(Reuters) - Earl Kerr, a 57-year-old electrical contractor in Jacksonville, Florida, says he fears for his 80-year-old mother, who entered an assisted living facility just before the coronavirus pandemic hit the United States. And he says he worries that the tanking economy will sink his small business.


But he has faith in U.S. President Donald Trump to handle the crisis. He’s heard the widespread criticism that Trump initially didn’t take the pandemic seriously, that his administration failed to procure vital medical supplies and left overwhelmed states to fend for themselves. Kerr has a different take.

“He’s not God. He can’t foresee the future or see that the virus can do this or that,” said Kerr, who voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to again in November. “He’s doing the best he can with the information that he gets.”

Continued support from voters like Kerr could prove critical to Trump’s re-election bid - especially because the regions where the president has drawn support often overlap with those most vulnerable to the pandemic, a Reuters analysis shows. The analysis found one in five of Trump’s 2016 voters live in areas where health and economic factors heighten their risks from the coronavirus. Kerr is among 30 voters interviewed by Reuters who live in such at-risk metropolitan areas in Florida, Ohio and West Virginia and who voted for Trump in 2016 or support him now.

The interviews, along with the latest Reuters/Ipsos polling data, show stalwart support among Trump’s political base amid the worst public health crisis in a century, with a rising U.S. death toll that has now surpassed 12,700, predictions of an economic depression, and the U.S. stock market’s biggest first-quarter loss in history. But neither has Trump enjoyed the dramatic gains in popularity that past presidents have sometimes seen during crises, when patriotism often runs high - illustrating a hardening of the bitter partisanship that has been the hallmark of his administration.

Before the pandemic, the president had trumpeted a soaring economy and record-low unemployment to woo the moderate and independent voters he needs to win the election - especially in key battleground states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida. That pitch evaporated in the pandemic, making perceptions of his emergency response all the more crucial. Recent polls in Florida and Wisconsin showed Trump trailing Biden by between three and six points.

Perceptions of crisis response have had a pivotal impact on the popularity of past presidents. The experience of George W. Bush - the last Republican president, also a polarizing figure - provides a vivid example of partisanship breaking down in some of the nation’s darkest times. Bush’s approval rating soared to more than 90% after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, according to Gallup polling. But that figure fell below 40% after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and bottomed out at 25% during the 2008 financial crisis, helping Democrat Barack Obama beat Republican challenger John McCain in that year’s election.

Trump’s approval rating, by contrast, has remained steady throughout his presidency and has ranged between 40% and 44% since the onset of the U.S. coronavirus crisis in early March, buoyed by the support of 85% of Republicans, according to the latest April 6-7 Reuters/Ipsos poll. That job rating makes November’s election highly competitive, experts say, though the political landscape could shift as the pandemic continues to claim lives and jobs. (For a graphic of the poll results, see reut.rs/39TtJm4)


Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said voters continue to support the president in part because he acted early, in late January, to restrict travel from China and appoint a coronavirus task force. “He also has an optimistic view of America and wants to get us moving as soon as it is safe, while also listening to the medical experts,” Murtaugh said.

The condemnation of Trump’s response is just as overwhelming among Democrats, nearly 89% of whom disapprove of his job performance, little changed from pre-crisis levels, the poll showed. Independents remain split, with 53% disapproving of the president’s performance and 42% approving.

Trump trails Joe Biden, the Democratic front-runner, even with the publicity advantage Trump now enjoys as he appears in daily briefings while Biden has isolated himself from the disease in his Delaware home, issuing little-noticed commentary. Registered voters supported Biden by 43% to 37%, according to the April 6-7 poll.

Kyle Kondik, a University of Virginia political analyst, said the hyper-partisan divide over Trump limits both his political upside and his downside in the crisis.

“People who predict this president will suffer long-term approval dips have been wrong throughout his presidency,” he said.

GRAPHIC: Reuters/Ipsos poll: Trump's approval ratings among Republicans, Democrats - here

‘IT’S NOT HIS FAULT’

Nearly all the Trump supporters interviewed by Reuters said the media and Democrats are unfairly blaming him for a problem that no one could have predicted.

Several still likened the new coronavirus to a seasonal flu - echoing Trump comments early in the crisis - even after the president’s own characterization of the outbreak had changed and his advisers said this virus is 10 times more fatal. The voters interviewed lauded Trump for the $2.2 trillion rescue package passed by Congress. They believe the pandemic’s economic fall-out means that the country needs Trump - a businessman - more than ever to steer it out of doldrums.

Many said he’s doing the best possible job in an impossible situation.

“It’s not his fault that this happened,” Barbara Raccina, 76, of Jacksonville Beach, Florida, who voted for Trump in 2016 and will do so again in November. “I think he’s trying to help as much as he can. The rest is up to us to stay indoors.”

Raccina and the other voters interviewed live in areas that supported Trump in 2016 and are now especially vulnerable to the pandemic. The Reuters analysis identified the areas through data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Reuters examined the percentage of people who smoke, have asthma or other conditions that can raise the risk of dying from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. The analysis also factored in economic data including unemployment and the percentage of the local workers in retail, who are likely to lose their paychecks in the pandemic as stores close.

John O’Neill, 61, lives in one of those vulnerable regions - Middletown, Ohio, a metropolitan area Trump won with 56% of the vote in 2016. Middletown has among the nation’s highest percentage of people who smoke, have the lung disease COPD, or have heart conditions, all thought to make COVID-19 more dangerous.

Currently unemployed, O’Neill hopes to find work in a warehouse - a setting with potentially high virus exposure - and has been diagnosed with COPD. He said he’s not concerned about the virus.

“We have 10,000 people die each year of the flu,” he said, “and they don’t shut businesses down.”

O’Neill said he takes comfort from the medical experts advising Trump, such as Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease official, who appears alongside the president at televised briefings. Fauci has become something of a cult hero - often praised by commentators with media outlets the president blasts as liberal-leaning because Fauci has publicly contradicted Trump’s assurances that the pandemic was under control.

O’Neill views Fauci as one of the president’s trusted advisors.


“If Fauci and them are telling him, ‘No, we shouldn’t be doing this,’ I’m sure Trump will listen to them,” he said.

GRAPHIC: Reuters/Ipsos poll: Who do you trust on COVID-19? Trump, governors, CDC? - here

‘TRYING TO GIVE US HOPE’

With the crisis still in its early days, Trump’s supporters are mindful of the risk that supporters’ confidence in his crisis response could fade if death tolls mount and stocks continue to tumble.

None of the voters who spoke to Reuters have yet lost a family member to the virus. Compared to other parts of the United States, there have been few confirmed cases in the parts of Florida, Ohio, and West Virginia that Reuters examined, in part because fewer tests are being taken in those areas.

Out of the 30 Trump voters, Reuters found only one whose support has been shaken by the president’s pandemic response - a registered Republican in Cincinnati in his 30s, who asked not to be identified.

After the first U.S. case was reported in January, Trump repeatedly insisted it was nothing to worry about and would disappear “like a miracle.” As recently as late March, Trump suggested scaling back coronavirus restrictions by Easter to revive the economy, before eventually extending social distancing guidelines through April.

The Cincinnati voter said he is considering voting for Biden in November.

Another voter who supported Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016, however, said she will back Trump this time. Amy Frasure, 32, of southern Ohio’s Lawrence County, runs an advertising agency across the border in West Virginia. She said it makes sense that Trump has provided a more upbeat assessment than state governors, who have to raise the alarm to effectively deal with public health and economic disasters on the front lines.


Trump’s job, she said, is “to make us more comfortable with the fact that there’s something crazy going on.”

Some of those who continue to support Trump said the president could have taken a more serious tone on the pandemic.

“It bothers me a little when (Trump) says everyone should be back to work by Easter, business booming, things like that,” said Mary Cogan, 52, vice-chair of the Republican Party in Lawrence County. “But then... I think he is probably just trying to give our nation hope.”

Cogan, who called Trump’s overall crisis response “awesome,” said every local Republican she knows remains steadfast in their Trump support. She expects the county, where 70% of voters supported Trump in 2016, to back him again.

“He will reign here in Lawrence County,” she said.

Bill would remove U.S. troops from Saudi Arabia in 30 days

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A Republican U.S. senator introduced legislation on Thursday to remove American troops from Saudi Arabia, adding pressure on the kingdom to tighten its oil taps to reverse the crude price drop that has hurt domestic energy companies.

The legislation from Senator Bill Cassidy, of oil-producing Louisiana, would remove U.S. troops 30 days after enactment, a full month faster than similar legislation introduced by two other Republican senators in March.

Cassidy introduced the bill as OPEC+, a production group including Saudi Arabia and others in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, closed in on a deal to slash oil output by a record amount of about 15 million barrels, or 15% of global production.

The spread of the coronavirus has crushed crude demand at the same time that Saudi Arabia and Russia have pumped oil flat- out in a race for market share, pushing prices to 18-year lows.

The extra oil from Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has made it impossible for energy companies in the United States, the world’s top oil and gas producer, to compete, Cassidy said.

“Withdrawing troops placed to protect others recognizes that friendship and support is a two-way street,” he said.

Cassidy’s bill faces an uphill battle and would have to pass the Senate, the House of Representatives and be signed by President Donald Trump to become law. Still, it was a sign of how Congress could take action against Saudi Arabia if it does not stick to the plan to cut oil output.

The bill would also place tariffs on imports of oil from Saudi Arabia within 10 days of enactment. The tariff would ensure that the price of oil imports from Saudi Arabia would not be less than $40 a barrel, the bill said.

Trump has threatened tariffs on oil imports from Saudi Arabia and Russia but has not imposed them amid opposition from powerful energy interests, including the American Petroleum Institute lobbying group.

The bill would not remove U.S. Patriot missiles or THAAD defense systems, as the previous legislation would.

Congress is out until at least April 20 and possibly longer due to the coronavirus outbreak.