Saturday, April 02, 2022

CHOMSKY: “If Corbyn had been elected, Britain would be pursuing a much more sane course”

The father of modern linguistics speaks exclusively to The London Economic about Donald Trump, Jeremy Corbyn and most pressingly: the climate crisis.



 by Adam Turner
2021-04-24 


Noam Chomsky is among the world’s most eminent political rebels. For decades, his stark criticisms of the United States’ foreign policy have troubled presidents, both Republican and Democrat.

Just last year, the self-proclaimed anarchist called Donald Trump “the worst criminal in history” for his refusals to act on the climate crisis in a controversial interview with the socialist publication Jacobin Magazine.

Former president, Barack Obama, didn’t get off lightly either. He was in Chomsky’s bad books for waging a targeted “global assassination campaign” (Obama is estimated to have carried out 1,878 drone strikes over eight years) during his time as leader.

Even Joe Biden, who only took up office in January this year, was reprimanded early in his presidency for adopting Trump’s policy on Iran with “virtually no change”. Biden’s appointment of Richard Nephew – author of the book The Art of Sanctions – as Iran envoy particularly concerned the renowned academic who says the sanctions on Iran were “illegitimate in the first place”.

The father of modern linguistics

You’d think the 92-year-old would be tired of talking politics by now, but if YouTube is anything to go by, that couldn’t be further from the truth. The video sharing website’s recent pages are full of clips of him chatting with university students (he’s still a Laureate Professor of Linguistics at the University of Arizona and Institute Professor Emeritus at Massachusetts Institute of Technology or MIT), debating well-known journalists and looking bewildered as entrepreneurs ask questions about his beard.

After three years’ worth of emails, we sit down to chat on Zoom (his video calling preference). When he appears on the screen from his home in Tucson, Arizona, he looks, with his wispy grey hair and long and unkempt beard, like a modern-day Plato – sat in front of a packed bookshelf, displaying only one photo of him and his wife. Over the course of nearly an hour and a half, we discuss everything from activism and internationalism, Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, to Jeremy Corbyn and Joe Biden, as well as nuclear war and perhaps the most pressing matter of all: the climate crisis.

Born in Philadelphia in 1928, to say the ‘father of modern linguistics’ – a name given to him for his revolutionary theories in the field – has lived a full life would be the understatement of the century. He was brought up by Jewish immigrant parents, William (Ze’ev) Chomsky and Elsie Simonofsky, during the Great Depression – his father fled the Russian Empire to escape conscription in 1913. He listened to Hitler’s Nuremberg rallies over the radio as WW2 unfolded when he was a boy and rose to prominence in his 20s and 30s during the Vietnam War for his anti-war activism, which almost landed him in prison. “I was an unindicted co-conspirator in a federal trial and on track to be the main target of the next.”

The veteran activist also featured on Richard Nixon’s opponents list – an extension of his enemies list derived from prominent public figures (actors, academics, politicians etc.) he thought could be a threat to his presidency. But it was way before all of this that the professor became political.

“When I was four or five years old, I was beginning to think about these things [politics], and it never changed. I grew up in the depression. My early childhood memories were things like miserable people coming to the door trying to sell rags, women’s strikers being attacked by security forces. I was surrounded by things like that.”


Anarchist libertarian


It wasn’t just gloomy lived experiences that influenced his early political beliefs. His family played a big part too. Although his mother and father were centre-left politically, his uncle was more radical and had “been through every political party”. At 12, a young Noam would stay with him and his wife at the weekend. During his visits, he’d go to his uncle’s newsstand and listen to radical activists, some of whom had fled the Spanish Civil War. He’d spend the rest of his time dipping between anarchist bookstores and devouring political literature passed around Union Square – a hive for radical politics at the time.

Since establishing his views as a child, they’ve rarely wavered. He’s an anarchist-libertarian (an anti-authoritarian wing of the socialist movement) and has been since he cares to remember. When I ask him how he’s managed to stave off conservatism or cynicism, he says:

“I didn’t see any reason to be [more conservative]. My early beliefs seemed to be only partially formed; of course, they developed much more afterwards, when I learned more, but they seemed to basically be on the right track.”

When I ask him personal questions such as this, he’s polite and respectful, but his answers are curt. It’s as if he knows that our time in every sense of the word – is limited, and he’d prefer to reserve his energy for important subjects. However, he flows freely from one long, cultivated soliloquy to another discussing things like democracy, activism and the planet’s future. I guess it’s to be expected of a world-renowned linguist that’s dedicated his life to academia.

Chomsky is an exceptional scholar. He went to the University of Pennsylvania at 16 and later became a leading professor in linguistics. The author has also given speeches at events around the world and continues to do so virtually.

More recently, he co-authored a book with economist Robert Pollin, ‘Climate Crisis and the Green New Deal’, examining how to save the world from the climate crisis by laying out practical economic, humanitarian and technical solutions. His position on the topic is both clear and candid.

“We have maybe 20 or 30 years to see if human civilisation can survive, and we’re not doing it now. If we fail, if this generation fails, it’s basically saying, ‘it was nice having humans around for a couple of 100,000 years, but it’s over.”

“Lunacy, outright lunacy”


He’s talking about reducing carbon emissions to prevent a hothouse earth scenario, which would see the world hit its highest global temperature of any time in the past 1.2million years, making it, in his words, “unliveable”. Climate crisis is why the Paris Climate Agreement was set up in 2015. The International Treaty, signed by nearly 200 countries, aims to reduce carbon emissions and keep global temperatures well below 2.0C. However, Chomsky insists, “we’re nowhere meeting the promises.”

I ask him for his thoughts on another topical issue: nuclear weapons. More specifically, Boris Johnson’s plans to lift the cap on Trident (Britain’s nuclear deterrence). If reports are correct, the Prime Minister plans to increase nuclear warheads by 40%, which could break international law. The UK is a signatory of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) – a commitment for the government to gradual nuclear disarmament.

Is it dangerous?


“I wouldn’t say it’s just dangerous; it’s lunacy, outright lunacy. I mean it’s ludicrous for Britain to have a nuclear force altogether. It doesn’t defend Britain. In fact, it makes it a target; it contributes nothing to security. It’s a prestige thing. And along with heating the climate, nuclear war is a comparable threat, it’s a serious threat, very little discussed, but anyone who’s anywhere near the arms control community knows very well this is an extremely serious and growing threat.” he says.

The nonagenarian doesn’t think Johnson’s move will lead to an escalation from other countries because, in his words, “Britain no longer has the global role it once did”. He says the UK is now a “junior partner to the United States” – something he thinks will be accelerated because of Brexit. As his eyes flicker – perhaps as a signal of irritation – he moves on to Trump.

“During the Trump years, one of his great contributions was to tear to shreds the arms control regime, which had been painstakingly built up over 60 years, going back to Eisenhower. Piece after piece was dismantled. Trump was a wrecker,”

Chomsky isn’t a fan of Trump, he says “the most serious crimes he committed is the destruction of the acceleration of the use of fossil fuels and the elimination of regulatory apparatus. There’s nothing in comparison to that fact. And to be honest, and frank, that’s the worst crime in the history of the human race.”

I ask if he thinks Boris Johnson is going down a similar route.

“It’s not identical, it varies, but it’s too similar for comfort. I think developing the nuclear facilities is a case in point.”
“If Corbyn had been elected, Britain would be pursuing a much more sane course”

While we’re on the subject of nuclear deterrence, I can’t help but ask about Jeremy Corbyn, who, depending on political leanings, was either the biggest threat to world peace or the saviour of humankind.

Would the world have been a safer place had Corbyn won the last general election in terms of nuclear threat?

“I think if Corbyn had been elected, Britain would be pursuing a much more sane course. I think his general positions were very reasonable. And I think that’s probably the reason for the extraordinary attack on him pretty much across the spectrum, with mostly fabricated charges of antisemitism. Anything that could be thrown at him was, it was a major assault. Again, pretty much across the spectrum, The Guardian, right-wing press, ‘we got to get rid of this guy’.

“I think that’s a sign, a reflection of the fact that he had very reasonable proposals. He was also doing something dangerous, he was trying to turn the Labour Party into an authentic political party, one that’s based on its constituents, not some bureaucracy somewhere that runs it and tells people how to vote. That’s scary. We don’t want to have authentic, popular based political parties around, they could be out of control.”

Although there is no doubt, the Labour Party has had serious problems with antisemitism. Last year, the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) identified “serious failings in leadership and an inadequate process for handling antisemitism complaints across the Labour Party.” The 130-page report went on to conclude that “there were unlawful acts of harassment and discrimination for which the Labour Party is responsible.” The former Labour leader was embroiled in an antisemitism row of his own for appearing to support a graffiti artist whose antisemitic mural was removed from a wall – something he later apologised for.

I bring up the genuine concerns raised regarding the Labour Party’s and antisemitism, which some felt were dismissed by Corbyn.

“If you look at the facts, the Tory party has more antisemitism than the Labour Party. There’s something there, you know, you should deal with it. But it’s not even within shouting distance of the way the issue was presented. By now, there’s pretty careful analyses of it. And I think if you look at them, you find what we know in advance. Yes, there’s antisemitism in England. That’s a bad thing. We should deal with it. But it’s not in the Labour Party any more than anywhere else, probably less.

“But compared with, say, islamophobia, it doesn’t even come close. Okay, that’s acceptable. You’re allowed that. In fact, if you look at the famous international Holocaust Remembrance Association’s statement on antisemitism, which everybody’s supposed to accept, just take its provisions and think about them for a minute. It follows that almost everybody’s a hysterical islamophobe. The charges of what they call indications of antisemitism if you apply that to attitudes towards Islam and Muslims, it cuts a very wide swath.”

The current IHRA statement on antisemitism from its website reads:

‘Antisemitism is a certain perception of Jews, which may be expressed as hatred toward Jews. Rhetorical and physical manifestations of antisemitism are directed toward Jewish or non-Jewish individuals and/or their property, toward Jewish community institutions and religious facilities.’

Chomsky, who has previously spoken of being subjected to antisemitism as a child, finishes with “antisemitism shouldn’t be vulgarised and politicised, turned into a weapon. It’s too serious for that.”

“Antisemitism shouldn’t be turned into a weapon”


Keir Starmer, the current Labour leader, declared that tackling antisemitism was his first priority as Labour leader. He followed through with his word when he sacked Rebecca Long-Bailey in summer 2020 for sharing an article that contained antisemitic conspiracy theories. Corbyn was later suspended himself for sharing a statement 30 minutes after the EHRC report claiming the scale of the antisemitism problem had been “overstated for political reasons”.

Starmer has since faced criticism from large swathes of dedicated Corbyn supporters, many of which feel the party is moving to more centre-ground and not acting as serious opposition to the current government. Those more sympathetic to the challenges he’s faced early in his premiership – namely a global pandemic – believe he’s adopting a similar strategy to Joe Biden by waiting until his opponent fails.

Wary that our time has run over by 36 minutes already, I ask if Starmer’s strategy is a good one.

“It’s a good strategy if you want to turn the Labour Party into a junior partner of the Tories. Pretty much like what Tony Blair did, it used to be called Thatcher light. If that’s what you want, fine. If you want a Labour Party that actually represents the working people of England, middle-class people of England, pursue their interests, it’s not the way to do it. It depends on what your goals are. It looks to me that Starmer’s is pretty much dismantling the activist Labour Party that the Corbyn people were trying to develop.”

It’s a statement that will thrill Corbynistas but probably won’t surprise Starmtroopers either. After all, Chomsky himself said he’d back Corbyn during the 2017 election campaign, and he’s hardly someone that’s tempted by moderate politics, although he did endorse Joe Biden.

Though he’s happy about the path he’s going down regarding the climate crisis, he’s not convinced it’s entirely original. “Biden’s programme is much better than any predecessor, not because of a religious conversion, because of very significant activist pressures, which have made a difference.”

After just over one hour 20 minutes, the interview draws to a close. He politely explains he has got to go, more appointments. I steal a second to ask one final question. Where does he see the world in 2050? His answer is unapologetically Chomsky-esque.

“Well, there’s one thing we can say, either we will have reached net-zero emissions by 2050, or we can pretty much say goodbye to each other.”

Noam Chomsky and Robert Pollin’s book, ‘Climate Crisis and the Global Green New Deal’ is available here.

UK
Rory Stewart’s tweet has won April Fool’s Day


The former Tory leadership candidate had Twitter users gasping and checking the date with his intervention.


 by Henry Goodwin
2022-04-01 
in Politics


Rory Stewart may well have won April Fool’s Day after suckering in bemused Twitter users by announcing that he had been asked by Boris Johnson to serve as his new communications chief.

There is infamously no love lost between Stewart and the prime minister. The former Tory MP and minister wrote earlier this year that Johnson is “a terrible prime minister and a worse human being”.

In an article for the Financial Times, Stewart said: “Twenty years have passed since the Conservative party first selected him as a candidate. Michael Howard and David Cameron made him a shadow minister, and Theresa May gave him the Foreign Office.

“Thirty years of celebrity made him famous for his mendacity, indifference to detail, poor administration, and inveterate betrayal of every personal commitment. Yet, knowing this, the majority of Conservative MPs, and party members, still voted for him to be prime minister.

“He is not, therefore, an aberration, but a product of a system that will continue to produce terrible politicians long after he is gone.”

‘An honour’

But social media users apparently have short memories, as Stewart duped them with his jokey announcement on Friday morning.

He tweeted: “It is an honour to have been asked by the PM to serve as Director of Communications for No10 Downing Street.

“I am looking forward to working with the PM, Ministers and Members of Parliament on the issues that matter most to our country.”

Of course, some people quickly clocked the calendar and realised that Stewart was joking. But that didn’t stop some of his followers from getting very upset nonetheless.

 Check out some of these reactions.

Well played, Rory.

$2.44 Billion Pledged by Donors for Afghan Crisis

The Islamic Emirate said it will monitor the aid-process provided by the international community.



The UN held a high-level virtual pledging event in cooperation with the United Kingdom, Germany and Qatar on Afghanistan, where a total of amount of $2.44 billion had been promised.

The meeting was held on Thursday.

The UN earlier said it was seeking $4.4 billion to alleviate the crisis in Afghanistan.


The UN warned that if aid did not immediately arrive in Afghanistan, the situation would deteriorate in the country.

“Without immediate action, we face a starvation and malnutrition crisis in Afghanistan”, said Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary General, while addressing the conference.

“There is very little cash. More than 80% of the population are in debt, key workers in vital services including schools and hospitals have not been paid for months,” he said.

The European Union announced 113 million euro for vulnerable people in Afghanistan as well as Afghan refugees in Iran and Pakistan.

However, the Islamic Emirate said it will monitor the distribution of aid provided by the international community.

“We monitor the procedures of its implementation. All the actions taken inside the country are under the supervision of the Islamic Emirate,” said Bilal Karimi, deputy spokesman for the Islamic Emirate.

The conference was attended by 41 representatives of countries and organizations.

“The people of Afghanistan need a functioning economy to have any hope of the peace and prosperity that they deserve and it is our hope that we can work together to move things in the right direction,” said a spokesman for the World Bank.

The donors stressed that the aid should not be directed to the current Afghan government.

The UN earlier said that it had appealed for $4.4 billion for Afghanistan’s crisis, the biggest appeal of the UN’s history.


“The ban on some foreign media organizations’ programs in Afghanistan and the closing of girls' schools above grade six decreased the hopes of the international community for the Taliban,” said Mohammad Hassan Faiq, a political analyst.

Life in Vladimir Putin’s Russia after the Ukraine invasion: one woman’s story

Sursa: Pixabay

Universul.net has spoken to an ordinary Russian woman to find out how life has changed since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.

She describes to us the fear that has seeped into people’s lives who do not believe the official Kremlin line, how sanctions are biting, and her fears for the future.  

She says Russians still bear the collective trauma from the days of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin.

War

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, almost 2,000 Russians who dared to protest the war have been arrested. Last weekend alone, some 1,000 from nearly 40 cities across Russia were detained.

Thousands of Russians have died. Ukraine claims Russian combat losses were almost 15,000, although these figures are likely too high.

Casualty figures

Russian tabloid newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda published casualty figures on its website allegedly cited to the Russian Ministry of Defense that showed 9,861 Russian servicemen had died. The outlet deleted the report and said it had been hacked.

Russia’s crackdown on news coverage and the imposition of a new law criminalizing reporting that accurately characterizes the Ukrainian invasion, means it is increasingly difficult to get reliable news about what is going on.

The media blockade is an attempt to control the narrative around the invasion, which the Russian government and state media have insisted on referring to as a “special military operation.”

International sanctions

Russians do not see coverage of how their forces have bombed cities and killed civilians in Ukraine. They are not fully aware of the scope of international sanctions even if they are already feeling the effects.

Universul.net spoke to someone we will call ‘Alina’ which is not her real name. We have decided to protect her identity to shield her from possible reprisals.

‘Alina’

Alina is about 40, is the mother of a teenage girl, has a career and looks forward to traveling abroad in the future.

She has relatives and business partners in Ukraine and friends in the ‘decadent’ west that Putin considers his enemy.

She is not a dissident nor a martyr like Alexei Navalny, bur neither does she believe the official Kremlin line repeated in the state media.

This is what she told us. Her comments have been slightly edited to read better.

Worried

„My mother’s cousin lives not far from Kyiv. She is still alive; her daughters and grandchildren have left the country and are now in Poland.  I’m super worried about her, and we’re offering help but there’s little we can do.”

“She just wants all of this to stop.”

„I have a couple of people I know professionally and we were planning to do a project together, but that’s on hold for the foreseeable future.”

„From a non-emotional perspective, the Russian government’s actions have negatively impacted me.”

„If I add emotions to the mix, it starts to be very painful and sad.”

„If am thinking of all other consequences such as my daughter’s future or our economy, it looks bleak.”

„We discuss the situation every day at home.”

Pro-government version

„We have to tell our daughter what’s happening as she exposed to the pro-government version at school. We explain to her that this is a point of view that the family doesn’t share. It’s not easy.”

“Most of our friends are also shocked by what’s happening, but there are a  couple who are justifying what the government is doing. It’s super difficult to draw the line between what unites us as friends and what separates us.”

„At work we focus on discussing our work. This is our personal choice and one we share. We try at least. However, it’s getting more and more difficult as sanctions are negatively impacting our business, every day a little bit more.”

Alternative views

„I listen to the news on official radio station a couple of times a week to understand how they are relating the story for the wider population. I also read and watch alternative points of view on Telegram and YouTube.”

„My mother and my husband regularly share with me non-official links and videos. We can access alternative information, but you have to look for it.”

„The government quickly closed down ‘alternative media.’  You need a VPN to get Facebook/Instagram. Many bloggers left Russia and some of them stopped their channels. The influencers who have stayed need to be very careful with language so they don’t fall afoul of the new legislation.”

Peaceful protests

„In previous years, my mother, my brother and my husband  took part in peaceful protests.”

This year when the assault began, my husband tried to go to a protest but couldn’t find a ‘safe spot.’ There was a large police presence and big buses there to pick up people and immediately take them into custody.

„There is a large presence of police and armed forces in places such as Pushkin Square (Moscow).”

Jail

„If you are caught, you will spend 15-30 days in a detention facility.”

„People are more fearful now. It’s strange for us to be afraid to share our political views with people outside of our close circle but this is what is happening now.”

Stalin

„I think it’s because of  ‘the memory of our genes.’ Under Stalin, if your neighbor informed on you to the police and you said something “wrong’ you risked going to prison,” she said.


Meduza: Inside the Kremlin. What does Putin hope to achieve now, and what is the mood in Russia

Sursa: Pixabay

This week, the Russian defense ministry announced a shift in its stated military objectives in Ukraine as has been widely reported.

Russian forces, the ministry’s spokesman claimed, would “drastically reduce” their assault on Kyiv and Chernihiv (however, this has yet to materialize) and concentrate on seizing the Donbas.

Independent Russian news site *Meduza spoke to five sources who said this was based on military and political considerations.

For a start, Russian officials aren’t sure how long the country can survive under tough Western sanctions.

The story captures the mood in the Kremlin, the competing narratives and different public sentiments reflected in unpublished Kremlin opinions polls.  It makes for grim reading.

Changing tack

By the end of March, a month into Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s military leadership finally resigned themselves to the fact that Kyiv couldn’t “be taken with little bloodshed.”

That is, Russia couldn’t take the Ukrainian capital with the forces on the ground in its so-called “special military operation.” Five sources told Meduza the same story; three are close to Vladimir Putin’s Executive Office (the Presidential Administration and two are close to the Russian government.

Meduza’s sources said that during the early days of the invasion, both the Russian military and President Putin believed the “special operation” would be easy to accomplish. They simply did not expect so much resistance from Ukraine.

Indeed, in late February, a Meduza source close to Mr. Putin’s office was convinced that the biggest problems for Russia wouldn’t be the seizure of major cities, but getting “new administrations” running in occupied areas.

This person had little doubt that Russian forces would seize these territories (including Kyiv). “There’s nowhere to get personnel to manage complex, urbanized territory,” Meduza’s source  said at the time. “There weren’t even enough of them for Crimea and Sevastopol.”

Donbas

By early March, however, the sources were beginning to change their tune. Now, they believe that managing to bring just the Donbas under its  control is the most “likely scenario.”

Five sources attributed the softening of Russia’s positions in the peace talks with Kyiv to the military’s failures on the ground. After Russian and Ukrainian officials met in Istanbul on March 29, Russian defense ministry spokesman, Col. Gen. Alexander Fomin, announced that Russian forces would “drastically reduce military activity in the directions of Kyiv and Chernihiv.”

 Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu declared the “liberation of the Donbas” was the “main goal” of Russia’s military operations.

 Meduza’s sources claim that in late March, government officials showed the Russian president their calculations about the state of the Russian economy. According to these documents, one source said, “the country will not be able to live even remotely normally under such sanctions.”

“There are [government] meetings going on in various sectors with approximately the same content: we can hold out on old reserves for several months. What will happen after, if at least some of the sanctions aren’t lifted? It isn’t clear to anyone. What is clear is that everything will be very bad. Infrastructure problems will begin, and problems with transport,” said one source who is close to the Cabinet of Ministers.

The party of war

Three sources close to the presidential administration all emphasized  that Putin has yet to make a final decision on what to do next.

According to one of these people, the president is currently “influenced by different groups and people.”  He himself “would like to see a semblance of public discussion” about the war in Ukraine. This desire for “public discussion” implies that Putin is ready to hear out those who insist on peace with Ukraine, as well as those who call for a  continuation of a full-scale war.

“People close to the Kremlin’s political circle are inclined to be in favor of negotiations, and their capabilities on the Internet will be deployed for this. The party of war , for example, [Chechnya’s head Ramzan] Kadyrov and [State Duma Speaker] Vyacheslav Volodin believe that the Russian president is in favor of fighting until victory, so they’re sort of following him,” a source close to the Presidential Administration said.

Possible truce

At the same time, officials in the Presidential Administration now fear that a “possible truce with Ukraine will impact Putin’s ratings.”

“Citizens have been ‘overheated’ by the propaganda. Let’s say a decision is made to stop at the territory of the Donbas. What about the ‘Nazis’? Are we no longer fighting against them? Propaganda has been hammered into people so much that I can’t imagine how we can stop at the Donbas, without a drop in ratings,” said a spin doctor working with the Kremlin.

A Meduza source close to the presidential administration also predicted problems stemming from another propaganda line — the swift “capture of Kyiv” and holding a victory “parade on Khreshchatyk” (the city’s main street).

“And what do you say after that? That we changed our minds about taking Kyiv? Why? Yes, there aren’t so many real, staunch supporters of war up to the very end, but this is a very vocal part of society which is already beginning to make noise [after the negotiations in Istanbul],” he explained, pointing to numerous comments from outraged “patriots” after the announcement about scaling back the assault on Kyiv.

Surveys

Since mid-March, as Meduza reported previously, Putin’s administration has been using  surveys to determine how the  public views  the war and which problems concern Russians most. A Meduza source familiar with the AP’s findings said that Putin’s ratings have  gone up since the “special military operation” began. (Similarly, a recent poll conducted by the independent Levada Center shows that Putin’s approval rating hit a whopping 83 percent in March, and his trust rating reached 44 percent.)

Nevertheless, what happens next remains unclear. And whether the possibility of “abandoning” the plan to take Kyiv will provoke opposition from the pro-Kremlin electorate is unclear, as well.

“Among the [supporters of the war] are ‘armchair patriots’ who say they support it, but won’t rally in the streets in support of a continuation of hostilities. Women over 40 are also part of the core support for the ‘operation.’ They support it, but when asked the question: ‘Are you prepared to send a member of your family to fight?’ they say they aren’t prepared to do that,” said Meduza’s source, explaining the results of the Kremlin’s opinion polls. The source added that most often, Russians cite the “threat from the West” as the reason they support the war which echoes “what they’re told on TV.”

Russian propagandists

Against this backdrop, the presidential administration held a meeting to discuss strategies for explaining possible peace talks with Ukraine to the Russian population, Meduza’s sources said. Allegedly, no “effective strategies” came out of this meeting. “So much coal has been thrown into the locomotive’s furnace, it won’t be possible to put it out immediately,” one political strategist said at the meeting,  Meduza has learned.

The difficulty lies in the fact that some Russian propagandists are openly demanding that the war continues: “For example, [state] television host Vladimir Solovyov dragged [Russia’s head peace negotiator Vladimir] Medinsky through the mud.” Other propagandists “don’t understand how to backpedal so as not to lose face.”

Two Meduza sources close to the president’s office emphasized that there is a level of disappointment among the “patriotic public.”

“NOTIONALLY, FOR THEM, IT’S LIKE WATCHING A TV SERIES WITH A SPOILER: IN THE LAST EPISODE THEY’LL TAKE KYIV. AND NOW, IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SERIES, THERE’S SOME NEGOTIATIONS — AND IT ALREADY SEEMS KYIV WON’T HAPPEN.”

The Kremlin is already preparing for an inevitable drop in the government’s ratings after the war ends amid the worsening economic crisis, especially in Moscow and Saint Petersburg.

Secret Kremlin polls show that no more than half of the residents of these cities currently support the war.

New ideology

According to Meduza’s sources, political strategists close to the Kremlin have already been tasked with dreaming up a “new ideology for the country” and “some new national idea.”

As one source put it: “There will be peace in some form anyway, and people will ask questions: what was this for? Kyiv hasn’t been taken, the majority of the sanctions haven’t been lifted, living under them [sanctions] is bad. Why put up with all this? This void needs to be filled so that it won’t be filled by someone else.”

* Meduza is a Russian and English-language independent news website, based in Latvia which was set up in 2014.

More than 600,000 refugees from Ukraine have entered Romania since Russia invasion

Some 608,000 refugees from Ukraine have entered Romania since Russia invaded the country in what is Europe’ largest refugee crisis since World War II, the UN said.

The U.N. refugee agency, UNHCR,  on Wednesday  said that more than 4 million people have left Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion on Feb. 24.

That number exceeds the worst-case predictions made at the start of the war.

Some 2.3 million_more than half of the refugees from Ukraine_ have entered Poland, but some have since traveled on to other countries.

A small number have returned to Ukraine, either to help in the defense against the Russians or to care for relatives.

About 390,000 have entered Moldova, and 364,000 have entered Hungary in the last five weeks, UNHCR said.

Its figures are based on counts provided by the governments of those countries.

“The situation inside Ukraine is spiralling,” UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said in a statement Wednesday.

“As the number of children fleeing their homes continues to climb, we must remember that every single one of them needs protection, education, safety and support.”

U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi traveled to Ukraine on Wednesday to discuss ways to increase support “to people affected and displaced by this senseless war.”

Russian general dubbed ‘butcher of Mariupol’ is a mystery to experts

By Adam Taylor and William Branigin
Yesterday 
Col. Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev, head of the Russian National Defense Control Center, 
sits at the right in this briefing in Moscow on March 25. 
(Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP/Getty Images)

For years, Col. Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev was an obscure figure in Russia’s sprawling military leadership. But over the past week, he has become well-known under a startling moniker: “the butcher of Mariupol.”

Ukrainian officials and activists have accused Mizintsev of orchestrating a siege of the southern Ukrainian port city that, according to its mayor, has killed thousands of civilians and leveled residential buildings.

Russia’s Ukraine war builds on tactics it used in Syria, experts say

“This is Mikhail Mizintsev. He is leading the siege of Mariupol. … He has huge experience of destroying cities in Syria,” Oleksandra Matviichuk, head of Ukraine’s Center for Civil Liberties, tweeted last week over a photo of the 59-year-old general, a man with close-cropped gray hair and pale blue eyes.




Mizintsev, who heads Russia’s National Defense Control Center, was placed under sanctions Thursday by the British government, which said he was “linked to the planning and execution of the bombardment of Mariupol, among other key Russian military operations against Ukraine.”

The Russian military officer has been dubbed “the butcher of Mariupol,” Britain’s Foreign Office said in a statement.

But despite his newfound notoriety, some Russia-watchers were surprised to see Mizintsev singled out. Previously, he did not have much of a reputation despite decades of service, experts said.

“I honestly don’t understand all this — I don’t think he has any operational command responsibility here, and he’s not got any particular reputation as martinet or thug that I know of,” said Mark Galeotti, an honorary professor at University College London who studies Russia’s armed forces.

Jeffrey Edmonds, former director for Russia on the National Security Council and a senior analyst at the CNA think tank in Washington, said he knew little about Mizintsev and had never interacted with him.

Keir Giles, a Russia expert at the British think tank Chatham House, said that Mizintsev is a senior figure but that he has spent much of the past decades in jobs that were “effectively administrative — not just staff posts, but running headquarters, command posts, coordination centers.”

“So he’s different from the other prominent senior Russian commanders who have mostly had operational on-the-ground experience in Syria,” Giles wrote in an email.

The United States has not imposed sanctions on Mizintsev. However, Britain’s Foreign Office said he was “known for using reprehensible tactics, including shelling civilian centers in both Aleppo in 2015-16 and now in Mariupol — where atrocities are being perpetuated against Ukrainian people.”

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The destruction of Mariupol has drawn comparisons with the siege of Aleppo in 2016, when Russian forces helped Syrian President Bashar al-Assad crush rebels there in an eight-month campaign that featured the use of cluster bombs, chemical weapons and other banned munitions, in addition to heavy shelling and conventional airstrikes.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry’s website, Mizintsev headed a ministerial coordination body responsible for the return of refugees during the Syrian war.

Mizintsev has been named as Russia’s point man in an agreement with the Ukrainians for a humanitarian cease-fire to allow beleaguered residents of Mariupol to evacuate and critical aid deliveries to enter the city, where more than 100,000 people are estimated to remain trapped.

The cease-fire is “purely for humane purposes,” he said at a briefing Wednesday, the Interfax news agency reported.

But Sergey Bratchuk, a spokesman for the Ukrainian military in Odessa, wrote on Facebook on March 23 that Mizintsev was “personally” controlling the military operation in Mariupol, adding that the Russian leader had ordered his troops to bomb a maternity hospital and other civilian targets.

The Ukrainian government has released audio that it claimed was an intercepted recording of Mizintsev berating and threatening Russian soldiers for their appearance. The Washington Post could not verify the authenticity of the recording.


Ukraine’s former ambassador to Austria, Olexander Scherba, shared the clip on Twitter on March 23, describing Mizintsev as “the butcher of Mariupol.” Scherba later told The Washington Post that he did not know of Mizintsev before the war, adding that he was “not an expert” on the Russian army.

The U.S. says Russia is committing war crimes in Ukraine. Here’s what you need to know.

Giles, the Chatham House expert, said Mizintsev was a surprising figure to take the brunt of the blame for the attack on Mariupol, given his background.

But that does not necessarily mean he was not responsible, Giles said. “I find it hard to believe that, given the visibility into Russian operations that the U.S. and the U.K. have proven through their intelligence disclosures, that accusation can’t be based on something substantial.”

The relative anonymity of the Russian three-star general was apparent in Russia, too, according to Andrei Soldatov, a Russian investigative journalist who studies the country’s security services. But that was nothing unusual, he said.


“He is not a big name in Russia,” Soldatov said, adding that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was really the only military leader known to the public. He was also popular — a fact that could explain why Russian President Vladimir Putin is cautious about firing the more senior official, Soldatov added.


Shoigu disappeared for 12 days in March before returning to public life on Saturday as abruptly as he had departed. His absence sparked widespread speculation about Russia’s military leadership during a war that is widely perceived to have gone badly for the Kremlin.


Russia prepared for 8 years to be cut off from the West. Meet the payment system that’s still processing its credit card transactions

Fri, April 1, 2022

Igor Grussak—Picture Alliance/Getty Images


Since the start of the Ukraine War, a barrage of western sanctions has crippled the Russian economy and wreaked havoc on its financial system.

The country has been largely cut off from the international payment system SWIFT, seen its access to $630 billion in foreign exchange reserves restricted, and watched as more than $17 billion in assets were seized from Russian oligarchs.

But for the past eight years, Russia has been preparing for the worst.

In June of 2014, just three months after its invasion of the Crimean Peninsula, the country established its own payment system to help process credit card transactions domestically. Russia’s National Payment Card System—known to Russians as NSPK—has continued to process credit card transactions during the latest fighting in Ukraine.


Even though Mastercard, Visa, American Express, PayPal, and Discover have all suspended their operations in Russia, its citizens aren’t experiencing the type of disruption many might expect.

Mastercard told Fortune via email that credit cards issued by Russian banks are no longer supported by its network. Instead, credit cards being used in Russia are now processed over something called a “switch,” run by the Central Bank of Russia.

Dr. Leo Lipis, the CEO of the payments industry consulting firm Lipis Advisors, said that a switch is “a hub for communication that connects the various banks involved in a payments network.”

This means Russian consumers relying on locally-issued cards bearing the Mastercard logo can still use their cards like they normally would, Lipis noted.

A spokesperson for Mastercard confirmed in a separate email to Fortune that the company doesn’t have the ability to block domestic transactions in Russia, but it receives “no benefit” from them. This is because Mastercard, along with other Western companies, signed an agreement for their transactions to be processed by NSPK in 2015.

Russians are still blocked from using Western credit cards outside of the country, but that’s only helped the Kremlin’s goal of keeping assets from moving abroad. The sanctions also boosted Russia’s own credit card company, MIR, which is built on the back of NSPK and owned by the Central Bank of Russia.

When MIR debuted in late 2015, Russians were slow to adopt the card. Then, the government mandated that public sector employees receiving state funds and welfare benefits use MIR payment cards, spawning new growth for the firm.

“When you go back to 2015, Visa and MasterCard pretty much shared the Russian market 50-50,” Lipis said. “And by the time you get to 2020, the market is shared three ways.”

Today, there are more than 100 million MIR cards issued, according to the company. And with U.S. card companies leaving Russia, MIR can more easily grow its market share.

In recent years, other countries, including Turkey, India, and China, have also developed their own payment systems to limit the influence of U.S. credit card companies and limit the pain caused by any sanctions.

After the recent invasion, Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, turned to China’s Union Pay and the so-called Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) in an effort to circumvent Western sanctions and issue new cards.

Union Pay has agreements with many European and U.S. credit card networks that allow foreign cards to be processed through its payment system and accepted in some Western countries, particularly in tourist destinations, Lipis said.

The payment systems expert noted that China’s Union Pay could be opening itself up to “secondary sanctions” from the West if it knowingly helps Russian banks circumvent sanctions.

Still, when it comes to processing transactions abroad, Russia’s MIR and the Chinese payment systems aren’t “adequate substitutes” for U.S.-based payment systems like Visa and Mastercard, Lipis said. And they carry less than 0.5% of the total value of payments made via SWIFT.

“There is some truth to the Visa slogan of it's everywhere you want to be,” he added.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
The US reportedly watered down sanctions against a key Russian oligarch out of fear that disrupting his business empire could hurt the global economy

ALL HIS MOOLA IS IN TRUSTS


Hannah Towey
Thu, March 31, 2022

Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

The US Treasury issued a special license exempting Alisher Usmanov's businesses from sanctions.

The move makes it legal for the oligarch's entities to continue doing business with US companies.

Officials reportedly feared that blocking his network of businesses could disrupt global trade.

The US Treasury made exemptions to sanctions on Alisher Usmanov, the Russian businessperson described by the European Union as one of President Vladimir Putin's "favorite oligarchs" whose net worth is estimated to be about $19.6 billion.

US officials feared that blocking the hundreds of businesses believed to be connected to Usmanov could wreak havoc on the global economy and supply chain, current and former Treasury Department employees told The Wall Street Journal.

To mitigate repercussions, the US focused sanctions on assets personally linked to Usmanov — such as his superyacht and private jet — instead of his business entities. The Journal reported the move was an example of sanctions put in place following Russia's invasion of Ukraine that were limited to avoid outsize influence on the US economy.

On March 3, the Treasury issued a special license "authorizing all transactions and unblocking all property of any entity owned 50 percent or more, directly or indirectly, by Usmanov." Typically, businesses with a majority stake owned by sanctioned oligarchs have been blocked from doing business with US companies unless granted an exemption.


In an email exchange dated March 1 reviewed by The Journal with the subject line "Usmanov mitigation," Lisa Palluconi, a Treasury official, detailed the plan for watering down sanctions against Usmanov, saying that "messaging will be that we continue to look into his entities … or something like that."

Insider's email seeking comment sent to an address believed to belong to Palluconi was not immediately returned. Palluconi did not respond to The Journal's request for comment.

The Journal, citing current and former Treasury officials, also reported that the decision to limit the sanctions on Usmanov was partly influenced by a desire to avoid lawsuits from the oligarch, which could eat into the department's limited resources.

"Financial sanctions on Russian elites immediately cut them off from their wealth, their ability to make or receive payments, their travel, and their ability to extract revenue from their companies," a Treasury spokesperson told Insider. "The United States will continue to freeze and seize assets of these elites and their proxies as they support President Putin's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine."

Usmanov's business holdings are substantial. He controls 49% of OOO USM Holding Co., an investment group that owns the iron-ore supplier Metalloinvest and Udokan Copper — which claims to have Russia's largest undeveloped copper deposits. The Russian telecommunications company MegaFon is also a USM subsidiary. And Usmanov purchased the Russian business newspaper Kommersant in 2006 and owns Khimki Group, a real-estate developer, according to PitchBook.


A USM spokesperson told The Journal that the oligarch had previously called the sanctions levied against him by the US, the UK, and the EU "unfounded and unfair." He said his businesses received zero support from the Russian government.

You can read more on the decision-making behind the Usmanov sanctions over at The Wall Street Journal.