Stacey Abrams Chances of Beating Republicans in Georgia, According to Polls

Jason Lemon - Yesterday
Newsweek

Democratic activist and second-time gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams aims to build on the energy of President Joe Biden's 2020 win in Georgia to flip the governor's mansion blue, but polls suggest the former state House of Representatives minority leader still faces an uphill battle.

Georgia has not been led by a Democratic governor since 2003. The conservative southern state also has a significant Republican lean, which polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight assesses as being plus 7.4 points in the GOP's favor. But in 2018, Abrams lost to Brian Kemp, who is now the incumbent Republican governor, by a relatively narrow margin of just under 55,000 votes—about 1.4 percent of the total ballots cast.

Then, two years later in 2020, Democrats managed to flip Georgia blue not only for Biden, but also for both of the state's Senate seats. Biden's margin was narrow, however, with a little more than 12,000 votes putting him ahead of former President Donald Trump. That election marked the first time Georgia had gone for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1992.

Whether Abrams and Democrats can maintain the energy of 2020 and flip the governor's mansion to their control remains to be seen. Just under six months out, polls suggest that Republicans remain favored to win in the midterm race to be held on November 8. However, tensions within the Republican party between Kemp and Trump-backed former Senator David Perdue could potentially play out in the Democrats' favor as well.

Polls currently suggest that Kemp is favored to beat Perdue for the GOP's gubernatorial nomination in the May 24 primary. Meanwhile, Abrams chances of winning appear slightly better against the former senator compared to the incumbent governor.

A survey conducted by Survey USA/WXIA-TV Atlanta from April 22 to 27 found that Abrams trailed Kemp by 5 points among likely voters. The incumbent Republican was backed by 50 percent of Georgia's likely voters whereas the Democratic candidate was supported by just 45 percent.

When facing off against Perdue, Abrams was down by only 3 points—within the poll's margin of error. The former GOP senator had the backing of 49 percent of likely Georgian voters and the former Democratic state lawmaker had the support of 46 percent. The poll surveyed 2,000 adults in Georgia and had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

Another poll carried out by Emerson College/The Hill earlier in April found the two Republican candidates with slightly wider leads over Abrams. That survey had Kemp at 51 percent and Abrams at just 44 percent—a 7 point advantage for the GOP incumbent. Against Perdue, Abrams was down by 5 points—49 percent to 44 percent. The poll surveyed 1,013 registered Georgia voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Abrams looked best-positioned in a survey by Quinnipiac University conducted in January. That survey found the Democratic contender to be trailing Kemp by just 2 points—49 percent to 47 percent. She was tied against Perdue, with both candidates receiving the support of 48 percent of registered Georgia voters. A little more than 1,700 voters were surveyed and the margin of error was plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.

Despite Trump's strong endorsement, Perdue is currently trailing Kemp by double digits in every recent GOP primary poll. The RealClearPolitics average currently shows the incumbent governor leading the Trump-backed senator by more than 20 percentage points. With under three weeks until the primary is held, that's a commanding lead for any challenger to overcome.

Notably, Trump's disdain for Kemp is so strong that he publicly said last year that he'd prefer Abrams over the incumbent Republican.

"Of course, having her [Abrams] I think might be better than having your existing governor, if you want to know the truth," the former president told supporters at a September rally before the Democrat had confirmed her plans to run. "Might very well be better."

"Stacey, would you like to take his place?" Trump asked. "It's OK with me."

Whether Trump's opposition to Kemp could ultimately help Abrams and Democrats remains to be seen. However, some Georgia Republicans have raised concerns.

"Right now we are joined at the hip to Donald Trump, who doesn't share the same interests," James Hall, a state Republican Party committee member from Savannah, told the Associated Press last October. "He wants to torpedo Brian Kemp."

Solar energy projects are grinding to a halt in the US amid investigation into parts from China

By Ella Nilsen, CNN 

The solar energy industry has been thrown into a panic and projects are grinding to a halt after the Biden administration launched an investigation that some solar CEOs worry could tank the industry.

The Commerce Department launched the probe in March into whether four countries in Southeast Asia that supply about 80% of US solar panels and parts -- Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam -- are using components from China that should be subject to US tariffs.

The fallout within the industry has been significant.

A survey in late April by the Solar Energy Industries Association, a non-profit trade association, found 318 solar projects in the US had already been delayed or canceled, and several CEOs told CNN they expect more to follow. Industry leaders fear the probe could also have a devastating impact on the solar workforce.


© Paul Hennessy/SOPA Images/Getty ImagesThe 6 megawatt Stanton Solar Farm outside of Orlando, Florida.

The Commerce Department has defended it as a transparent and necessary process, but several solar industry experts and executives told CNN it has also essentially frozen most solar imports into the US because of the threat of steep, retroactive tariffs.

"With this administration and this much support, we're in a position where we're going to be laying off people in the renewables industry," George Hershman, CEO of utility solar contractor SOLV Energy, told CNN. "While you say all those things we agree with, we're getting crushed because we literally can't buy a module today. It's so frustrating."

The investigation was launched after one small US-based company, Auxin Solar, filed a complaint in February. Auxin CEO Mamun Rashid told CNN that the complaint "was existential" for his company.

"When prices of finished panels from Southeast Asia come in below our bill of materials cost, American manufacturers cannot compete," Rashid said, adding that "if foreign producers are circumventing U.S. law and causing harm to U.S. producers like Auxin Solar, it needs to be addressed."

Rashid told CNN it's "lamentable" that frustration is aimed at his company, rather than the "foreign suppliers" that he says are circumventing US law. Rashid also noted that Auxin is "here and can quickly scale up to meet needs of utilities within 2 to 3 quarters if we have the purchase order today."


Racking systems to hold solar panels sit empty on top of an old strip mine in Portage, Pennsylvania, on Monday, April 25.The fallout from a trade probe is rippling through the US solar industry, delaying projects and threatening to slow the renewable energy transition.

Solar industry leaders have been communicating with the Commerce Department and have also communicated their concerns about the probe to Biden's top climate officials -- including McCarthy and US Climate Envoy John Kerry -- a person familiar with the conversations said.

"The administration has been in touch with and is engaging with all kinds of solar stakeholders including the trade associations but also labor, communities, and NGOs," a White House official told CNN.
'The worst moment'

The Commerce probe comes on the heels of last year's ban on solar panels and parts that were suspected of having links to forced labor in China's Xinjiang Province.

The Department of Homeland Security directed US Customs and Border Protection to issue a Withhold Release Order, which banned imports made by Chinese company Hoshine Silicon Industry Co., after the government alleged the company uses forced Uyghur labor.

"Obviously, the industry absolutely needed to address any concerns about forced labor, but the implementation of that [order] was far from smooth," Solar Energy Industries Association President Abigail Ross Hopper told CNN.

At ports around the country, CBP agents seized and detained any solar products they suspected had links to Hoshine, unless companies could prove they did not.

US Customs and Border Protection statistics provided to CNN note the agency detained 734 shipments valued at $246 million, which the agency said is just 1.86% of the total value of all solar imports into the United States. But Hershman said the order ultimately led to a chilling effect across the industry, where companies withheld shipments for fear of being caught in an overly broad net at US ports.


Electricians with IBEW Local 3 install solar panels on top of the Terminal B garage at LaGuardia Airport in November 2021.

"If you have materials detained, you don't want to ship more," Hershman said.

Solar CEOs and industry analysts told CNN that while the CBP order was eventually resolved with a good outcome for the industry, the impact of the Commerce investigation is like whiplash.

"Solar is a big mess right now," said Marcelo Ortega, an analyst for Rystad. "This seems to be the worst moment for this to happen."

This year was supposed to be a banner year for US solar growth. Independent energy research firm Rystad estimated the US would add another 27 gigawatts of solar energy this year.

Now -- between the Commerce Department probe, the border seizures, the high cost of solar components and no new legislation in Congress to grease the wheels for more renewable energy -- Rystad estimates the US might only add around 10 gigawatts in 2022.

Ortega said the backslide threatens Biden's own climate goal to slash planet-warming emissions in half by 2030. The US would have to install around 50 gigawatts of solar photovoltaic capacity each year from 2022 to 2030 to keep Biden's goal on-track, according to Ortega's analysis.

Ross Hopper told CNN that the industry is looking for certainty from the markets and from governments, but that it's getting none of that right now.

"There's certainly been this steady cadence of challenges that keep getting thrown our way right at these moments of opportunity," Ross Hopper told CNN.
Commerce defends the probe

At a recent hearing on Capitol Hill, Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo told lawmakers that strict trade laws required her department to initiate and complete an investigation. The department is expected to issue a preliminary finding on the investigation by late August, but a final determination could take as long as January 2023, a Commerce Department official told CNN.

"My hands are very tied here," Raimondo said at the hearing. "I'm required by statute to investigate a claim that companies operating in other countries are trying to circumvent the duties, and I'm required by statute to have a fulsome investigation."

The Commerce official stressed to CNN that circumvention laws are "completely removed from political considerations."

"We're committed to holding foreign producers accountable to playing by the rules," the official told CNN.

Nevertheless, Raimondo has been questioned and criticized by politicians in both parties. A bipartisan group of 19 senators wrote to Biden this week asking for an expedited preliminary decision on the investigation.

And at a recent hearing, Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen, a Democrat, pressed Raimondo on her "very serious concerns" about the investigation.

"This will jeopardize tens of thousands of good-paying American solar jobs," Rosen said. "If we lose these jobs, they won't come back."

Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California and Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb of Indiana also recently wrote to Raimondo expressing concern that the investigation could impact solar growth and jobs in their states.

Although solar CEOs and industry analysts welcome the idea of a domestic solar supply chain, those who spoke with CNN said the Commerce Department investigation won't be the catalyst -- the industry needs Congress to incentivize it.

"If what we're talking about is incentivizing domestic manufacturing, this is not the way to do it," said Ben Catt, CEO of utility-scale solar company Pine Gate Renewables. "This is going to have not just a months but years-long impact to the solar industry. We and the administration need to be looking at how we will double and triple the renewables deployment in this country. And what we're doing is moving in the opposite direction."

WNBA players can support Brittney Griner by not playing in authoritarian nations | Opinion

Negotiating quietly is the best way to get Brittney Griner home, law experts say

Lindsay Schnell, USA TODAY - Yesterday 

As the 26th WNBA season begins on Friday, there’s a familiar — and dominant — face missing from action. She’s not in uniform this year, yet Brittney Griner is impossible to miss.

The 6-foot-9, 31-year-old center for the Phoenix Mercury, one of the most gifted and graceful athletes of her generation, awaits trial on drug charges in Russia. Meanwhile, her league has pledged to keep her at the forefront of its mind: Griner’s initials and her No. 42 jersey will be on the sideline of every WNBA court this season, and her charity, BG’s Heart and Sole Shoe Drive, will continue its work in Phoenix and beyond.


© James Lang, USA TODAY SportsBrittney Griner remains held in a Russian prison.

It’s a thoughtful way to recognize Griner, who was arrested in mid-February on her way back to Russia to resume play with UMMC Yekaterinburg, the team she’s played with for the last seven years. Accused of carrying vape cartridges with hashish oil in her bag, Griner has been stuck ever since, with the U.S. government this week reclassifying her case as “wrongfully detained.” Her next trial date is set for May 19.

But there’s another, better and considerably more meaningful way that all WNBA players can pay tribute to Griner. Starting now, they can vow to no longer play in authoritarian countries in the offseason. Because that is how we got here in the first place.

WNBA players are known for being passionately outspoken and active when it comes to social justice issues – shouldn't that extend to other countries?

“We’ve been going over there with our blinders on,” said Mike Cound, a longtime agent who represents dozens of WNBA and professional players. “I’m just as guilty as (any other agent). We’ve all been sending people over there knowing who Putin is. We keep sending players because the money has been so good and Putin was just masking the monster that he is. It’s an ethical dilemma, a gray area.”

For more than a decade, much of the best overseas money in women’s basketball has been made in authoritarian countries, including Russia, China and Turkey.

MORE: U.S. reclassifies Brittney Griner to be 'wrongfully detained' by Russia

HOW TO WATCH: WNBA well represented on TV, streaming platforms as Brittney Griner's detention looms

OPINION: Returning to WNBA best way for Becky Hammon to continue to make progress

It’s not just WNBA players and agents (and media and fans) who were complicit in giving Putin & Co. a pass. Why would anyone be concerned about human rights abuses when the International Olympic Committee awarded some of those countries the Games?

But I have higher expectations of WNBA players. You should, too. This is an exceptional group of women who repeatedly have taken a stand and forced everyone else to follow. Leading isn’t out of the ordinary for them — it’s what they do best.

After all, these are the women who flipped a U.S. Senate seat in Georgia, which ultimately delivered a Senate that ushered in the first-ever Black woman Supreme Court justice. They stood up to a racist owner and demonstrated their support for Black Lives Matter in 2016, before BLM protests caught on with the rest of America’s professional sports leagues.

MORE: When will Brittney Griner be freed? It could be years, and here's why.

Time to take a stand

Playing in unsafe countries is nothing new for WNBA players. Arizona women’s basketball coach Adia Barnes, who played overseas for more than a decade, recalled when she played in Russia.

"There weren't taxis, so you would flag down a car and pay a random car to get you to the gym," Barnes said. "I didn't know how to call the police, because I couldn't read the signs. Now I would never do that. I can't believe I used to do that. It was so dangerous."

As usual, it comes down to money. Overseas, players can command as much as $1 million per season. At home, the maximum base salary in the WNBA this season is $228,000; the average NBA salary is $7.3 million. That means the worst players in the NBA make roughly 32 times what the best players in the WNBA make. It’s astonishing and infuriating.

But given the fact that so many women’s players and agents have turned a blind eye to the horrific human rights violations taking place in certain corners of the world and willingly packed their bags for those countries, aren’t women also at least somewhat guilty of simply chasing big money?

It's natural for WNBA players to want to earn life-changing money, like hundreds of male athletes have done in the U.S. and elsewhere, for decades. I get it.

But everything has a cost, and right now, we have an opportunity to weigh what is and isn’t worth it. Should we really be sending players to countries where human rights are an afterthought?

"I've gotta be honest with you, I don't know," said Kelsey Plum, the 2021 Sixth Woman of the Year who spent this offseason in Turkey. "Time will give us the answer. I think it's so up in the air right now. (There are) so many variables that go into a decision about playing overseas. Everyone should have a right to make the decision that's best for them."

Players don’t just go for money. The WNBA season is short, only four months, and they need skill development opportunities and game experience, especially younger players adjusting to the pros. We need to talk about how to make the season longer and get players more games, which will in turn give the league a better and longer chance to build fan support.

Griner’s situation, which is hopefully resolved soon, opens the door for reflection. It can be a time for everyone furious that she was there in the first place to look the mirror and ask how much time, effort and money they’re investing in growing women’s sports.

It’s an opportunity for the media to evaluate how much it’s covering women’s sports. Griner was worthy of coverage long before she got locked up in a Russian prison. She is tremendously talented, one of the best athletes in the world. She’s also deeply kind and caring. I think often of Holly Rowe’s ESPN story from the 2020 bubble season, when she shined a light on another side of Griner, detailing how the WNBA All-Star, an avid outdoorswoman, saved the life of a man injured in a severe ATV accident.

But mostly, Griner’s predicament is an opportunity for WNBA players to lead, stand up to Putin and his cronies and other wanna-be dictators like him, and say, enough.

It’s an opportunity for players to say yes, money matters — but human rights matter more.


1 of 17 Photos in Gallery

©Adam Hunger, AP

Kentucky's Rhyne Howard, left, hugs her mom after being selected by the Atlanta Dream as the No. 1 overall pick in the WNBA draft.


This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: WNBA players can support Brittney Griner by not playing in authoritarian nations | Opinion

House will set $45K minimum annual pay for staff, vote to allow union, Pelosi says

Rebecca Shabad - Yesterday 
NBC News

WASHINGTON — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., on Friday announced a minimum annual wage of $45,000 for House aides and said she's scheduling a vote on a resolution that would allow staffers to unionize.

The moves aim "to strengthen workplace rights for our staff, while improving our ability to retain and recruit the next generation of public servants," Pelosi said in a letter to colleagues.

A government funding bill passed by Congress in March, included a 21 percent increase in the Members' Representational Allowance for each office, which will cover the pay adjustment, Pelosi said, adding that the deadline to increase minimum pay to $45,000 is Sept. 1.

The changes are meant to match the levels set on the Senate side.

"With a competitive minimum salary, the House will better be able to retain and recruit excellent, diverse talent," Pelosi wrote in the letter. "Doing so will open the doors to public service for those who may not have been able to afford to do so in the past. This is also an issue of fairness, as many of the youngest staffers working the longest hours often earn the lowest salaries."

The speaker also said the House will vote next week on a resolution, sponsored by Rep. Andy Levin, D-Mich., that would allow staffers to form a union. The Senate would have to pass its own legislation to let staffers in the upper chamber unionize.

"When the House passes this resolution, we will pave the way for staffers to join in union, if they so choose," she said. "Congressional staffers deserve the same fundamental rights and protections as workers all across the country, including the right to bargain collectively."

Staffers announced in early February that they planned to organize a union for aides who work in lawmakers' offices and for committees on Capitol Hill.

Why US politicians are trying to break the world's oil cartel now

By Nadeen Ebrahim, CNN - May 6,2022

A decades-old, failed effort by United States politicians to break the chokehold of a select few countries on the oil market has found new life as the war in Ukraine raised prices to an almost 14-year high.

A US Senate committee on Thursday passed a bill that could expose the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners -- most prominently Russia — to lawsuits for collusion on boosting oil prices. The vote took place just hours after the cartel and its allies rebuffed the West once again and stuck to plans for a moderate modest ramp up in production.

To become law, the bill has to go through the full Senate and House, then be signed by the President. White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said the administration has concerns about the "potential implications and unintended consequences" of the legislation. She said the White House is still studying the bill.

The bipartisan bill, the "No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act of 2021" or "NOPEC," would strip OPEC and its national oil companies from sovereign immunity that has protected them from lawsuits for decades. This means that oil states would no longer be immune from the jurisdiction of US courts if they breach terms of the bill if it turns into law.

The Biden administration has struggled to control oil prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted energy markets and drove up inflation at home. Western sanctions and a potential EU ban on Russian oil risks leaving a market gap that could exacerbate the situation. And with the midterm elections due in November, the window to calm inflation is getting narrower for the President.

A CNN poll released Wednesday showed that a majority of Americans think Biden's policies have hurt the economy, while 8 in 10 say the government is not doing enough to combat inflation.

Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have the necessary spare capacity to immediately ward off any shocks caused by a Russian shortfall. The OPEC members have refused to raise output substantially, opting instead to stick to a series of gradual production increases agreed with Russia.

Frustrated at Riyadh's refusal to heed US calls for more oil, politicians from the President's own party have been pushing him to get tougher on Riyadh. Last month, nearly three dozen House Democrats called on Biden to "recalibrate" the relationship with Saudi Arabia, calling it a bad strategic partner, according to reports.

"We are not schoolchildren to be treated with a carrot and stick," said senior Saudi prince Turki Al-Faisal in a recent interview. He blamed the US' own energy policies "for the state they are in."

While the NOPEC bill has unsuccessfully tried to make its way through Congress before, today's landscape is very different, said Robin Mills, founder and CEO of Qamar Energy in Dubai.

Mills told CNN why American politicians are making a new attempt to crush OPEC:

How is this attempt different from earlier ones?

There have been various versions of this since 2000, and it pops up whenever oil prices are high. It has never passed, and it never really got much traction. This time, in the government, it has gotten more traction, partly around Russia.

Biden is also under political pressure because of inflation. There is some political milage to blame OPEC for high oil process.

How have Saudi Arabia and other OPEC states responded to such attempts in the past?

They have always lobbied against it, and they will lobby again. I am not sure how strong their lobbying power is right now. They are not particularly popular in Washington at the moment, but they have their lobbyists.

[There is] the US petroleum lobby as well, API [American Petroleum Institute] and other organizations that have typically been against this bill because they benefit from OPEC restraining production and keeping prices high. So they tend to oppose this bill on the ground.

How do you think oil producing states will respond to the bill?

I don't think Middle Eastern countries can keep restraining production and refuse to play the game. They can be more cooperative and agree to increase production [but] they wouldn't want to be seen doing that under pressure. The EU ban on Russian oil imports will take some time to have effect [so] OPEC and OPEC+ could have a few extra months where it becomes clear that there is a shortage of oil, and that gives them a reason to say: "well, we will increase production and makeup this gap." So they can do that as a market measure without appearing to give in to political pressure.

How likely is this bill to be passed in the Senate and House? Is there a chance that Biden will pass it too?

Having another card to play will be quite appealing to the administration, even if they don't let it go all the way. The NOPEC bill is an additional element at a time when the US doesn't have that many cards to play [against oil producers]. Many of those bills have come up in the past, and there is always some national security argument that [oil producing states] are our allies, that we don't want to disturb our relationship with them, and that they are important to the oil market. But this time there are a few elements that may give it a better chance.

[Biden] would have to either let it pass, or he would have to say, "I have vetoed it because the Saudis agreed to something for us" [like] agree to increase production or something. He can't just veto it for no reason because that is just one more weapon against him from both the Republicans and the Democratic progressive left, saying he is [doing the] Saudis a favor at a time when oil prices are high.

Not vetoing it would be seen by Saudi Arabia and other producers as quite a hostile move.

Could passing this bill have a detrimental effect on the US itself?

The recovering prices have been very good for the US oil industry. But practically there isn't that much spare capacity [in the US]. Even if Saudi and the UAE used all their spare capacity, the market is still pretty tight, and with Russia coming off, the market will get tighter.

This transcript has been edited for length and clarity

Analysis: Nigeria and Angola responsible for almost half of OPEC+ oil supply gap

By Alex Lawler, Julia Payne and Ron Bousso - Yesterday 

LONDON/LAGOS (Reuters) - Almost half the shortfall in planned oil supply by OPEC and its allies is down to Nigeria and Angola, data seen by Reuters shows, reflecting a number of factors including moves by Western oil majors away from African projects.


Kaombo Norte floating oil platform is seen from a helicopter off the coast of Angola

OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, pumped 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) - equal to 1.5% of world supply - below its target in March, the OPEC+ figures seen by Reuters show.

According to the figures, Angola was responsible for almost 300,000 bpd of the OPEC+ supply shortfall while Nigeria was pumping almost 400,000 bpd below target. The war in Ukraine has also hit Russia's oil trading and its output was about 300,000 bpd short of its March supply target.


A view of an oil spill from a well head is pictured at Santa Barbara, in Nembe, Bayelsa

OPEC+ production shortfall

https://graphics.reuters.com/OIL-OPEC/gdpzyaqamvw/chart_eikon.jpg

The OPEC+ shortfall is one of the reasons global oil prices hit a 14-year high in March above $139 a barrel and it has prompted calls by the United States and other consumers for producers to pump more.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, however, has repeatedly rebuffed the calls - and one contributing factor is simply that some of its members don't have oil available to pump.

In OPEC's view, investment cuts after oil prices collapsed in 2015-2016 due to oversupply, along with a growing focus by investors on economic, social and governance (ESG) issues, have led to a shortfall in the spending needed to meet demand.

"There was massive underinvestment in the industry over the years, further complicated by the effect of ESG," OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo told Reuters.

"There was a contraction of 25% in 2015 and 2016 - unprecedented. There was no significant recovery before 2020, when we registered a 30% contraction in investments in the industry," he said.

Figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show there was no significant increase in investment in global oil and gas exploration and production during 2017-2019 - followed by a 32% plunge in 2020.

Global upstream oil and gas investment https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gkvlgklgdpb/IEA-investment.jpg

International oil companies are gradually pulling out of Nigeria's onshore oil production, although they continue to invest in its vast offshore oil and gas resources, where costs remain competitive.

Shell, which helped transform Nigeria into a leading producer since the 1930s, did not immediately respond to a request for comment about investment and the reasons for the decline in Nigerian output.

GULF PRODUCERS BOOST INVESTMENT

OPEC's Gulf producers led by Saudi Arabia are largely meeting their OPEC+ targets, and OPEC sources say their relative lack of dependence on outside investors has helped.

"The investment shortfall affected more the countries where reliance on foreign investment is more prominent," an OPEC+ source from a Gulf producer said.

Nigerian oil output vs OPEC+ target 

https://graphics.reuters.com/OIL-OPEC/byvrjnlbdve/chart.png

Angolan oil output vs OPEC+ target 

https://graphics.reuters.com/OIL-OPEC/zjpqkmjmqpx/chart.png

IEA figures show that in 2019, final investment decisions (FIDs) affecting over eight times more crude reserves in the Middle East were taken than those affecting African reserves.

Middle East approvals were also consistently higher from 2011 through 2018.

"Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are increasing investment and that to some extent can help offset declines elsewhere," said Audun Martinsen, analyst at Rystad Energy.

"It also highlights why OPEC is not intervening more because it is quite hard for OPEC to increase production overnight," Martinsen said.

Angolan state oil company Sonangol and Nigeria's state oil firm NNPC did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment on their production decline or the reasons for it.

According to a 2021 report from the Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation or APICORP, Middle East and North African producers were still expected to boost energy investment to $805 billion in 2021-2025 - up $13 billion on the previous year's five-year outlook, despite the impact of the pandemic.

In February, Saudi Arabia-based APICORP said it expected rising oil and gas prices to further support energy investment in the region.

TOO MUCH RISK

While Western majors are increasingly focusing on the energy transition and selling oil assets, they remain big producers in Africa. Big Western companies are responsible for 40% of output in Nigeria and 60% in Angola, according to Rystad.

Rystad sees some potential for new investment in Nigeria and Angola but projects remain "too expensive" for the majors.

"Since 2015 the majors have been focusing on cost and developing things in Africa has been too much of a risk with cost overruns," Rystad's Martinsen said. "It's not really part of their key focus any longer."

Angolan production has fallen 50% since 2015 and output is down by about 30% over the same period in Nigeria, he said. In Nigeria production is expected to grow slightly by 200,000 bpd in the coming years, but then decline again after 2024.

Shell said last month that oil spills arising from pipeline tapping in the Niger Delta doubled in 2021 to the highest since 2016.

Underlining the extent of the decline, exports of key Nigerian crude grade Bonny Light have fallen to just two or three cargoes a month from about eight or nine previously as a result of escalating oil theft.

(Reporting by Alex Lawler, Julia Payne, Ron Bousso, Ahmad Ghaddar and Maha El Dahan. Additional reporting by Noah Browning; Graphics by Alex Lawler and Ahmad Ghaddar; Editing by David Clarke)

BAN PALM OIL SAVE ORANGUTANS


Malaysia aims to regain palm oil market share in EU amid global shortage

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysia, the world's second largest palm oil producer, on Friday said it plans to leverage the global edible oil shortage and "political tension in Europe" to regain market share after buyers shunned the commodity over environmental concerns.

Palm oil is used to make everything from lipstick to noodles, but top producers Indonesia and Malaysia have faced boycotts after being accused of clearing rainforests and exploiting migrant workers for the rapid expansion of plantations.

Some companies have introduced "palm oil-free products" in recent years, and the European Union (EU), the world's third-biggest palm buyer, has ruled to phase out palm oil-based biofuels by 2030.

But retailers like British supermarket chain Iceland, which removed palm oil from its own-brand food starting in 2018, have been forced to return to the controversial commodity in recent months due to a global edible oil shortage triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war and Indonesia's ban on palm oil exports.

Zuraida Kamaruddin, Malaysian Minister for Plantation Industries and Commodities, said in a statement the government "will not want to waste a good crisis".

"It is time we step up efforts to counter adverse propaganda to undermine palm oil's credibility and for us to showcase the numerous health benefits the golden oil has to offer," she said.

Zuraida said global edible oil prices are likely to remain high in the first half of 2022 and EU demand is expected to increase in the near term due to tight sunflower and soy oil supplies.

EU vegetable oil group FEDIOL on Tuesday said Indonesia's ban is not a concern as it has palm oil reserves for several weeks.

Uncertainty over sunflower oil supplies due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine has spurred demand for rivals palm and soy oil as importers seek alternatives, fuelling a red-hot vegetable oil market.

Zuraida said Malaysia stands to benefit from this shifting demand and will undertake "aggressive efforts and campaigns" to fill the global supply gap in the long run.

Malaysia and Indonesia, which account for 85% of global palm oil output, have maintained that EU restrictions on palm oil-based biofuels are discriminatory and have launched separate cases with the World Trade Organisation.

($1 = 4.3700 ringgit)

(Reporting by Mei Mei Chu; Editing by Kanupriya Kapoor)

Exclusive-Guyana in 'no rush' to draft new oil production-sharing pact -minister

By Marianna Parraga - Yesterday 

Guyana's Natural Resources Minister Bharrat speaks during the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Guyana is in "no rush" to draft a new production sharing agreement (PSA) for offshore oil development, its Natural Resources minister told Reuters, reversing a year-long drive to devise new rules for future output.

The government of South America's newest crude oil producer said in 2021 it was planning a new agreement to revamp terms and boost royalties for future oil and gas projects. The proposed document was expected to improve terms for Guyana of a 2016 contract with Exxon Mobil and its partners for the prolific Stabroek block.

But the tiny nation, which has become one of the most desired exploration hot spots with the discovery of about 11 billion barrels of oil and gas, has struggled to quickly advance legal and regulatory frameworks for its energy industry. The original PSA reached with Exxon has been criticized even by the current government for being too favorable to oil producers.

Guyana aims to prioritize creation of an oil and gas regulatory body, Minister Vickram Bharrat said this week on the sidelines of the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston.

"We have started some of the work on designing a model PSA according to internationally accepted standards," he said. "However, there is no rush to conclude it immediately because we don't see any other companies applying for a PSA just yet."

Companies currently exploring in Guyana have in recent years signed or extended licenses to complete drilling. The new PSA would be needed to move projects to the development phase.

OFFSHORE DISCOVERY

In January, a joint venture by Canada-based CGX Energy and Frontera Energy made one of the country's most recent offshore discoveries. The venture will focus drilling this year on the Corentyne block, the most promising of its three blocks, including Demerara and Berbice.

Frontera told Reuters in March the venture was in talks with the Guyanese government about what do with Demerara, while preparing drilling at the Wei-1 exploration well in Corentyne in the second half of 2022, but declined to provide more details.

"This is only the second well for CGX, so I would say, in my own estimation, that in about three years from now, once everything goes well in terms of exploration, we might be ready to deal with CGX to sign a PSA," the minister said.

Between 2019 and 2020, a group led by Tullow Oil and Repsol also announced discoveries at the Orinduik and Kanuku blocks off Guyana's coast.

But shortly after Tullow said it would limit capital exposure in Guyana, possibly selling a portion of its stake to another company. So far that has not happened.

SEEKING 'THE IDEAL PARTNER'

According to Bharrat, the process for drafting a new PSA model will be similar to the mechanism for approving Guyana's local content policy. A high-level panel will be nominated for the task and domestic and foreign consultants will be involved.

In the meantime, the government plans to have ready this year an energy regulatory agency and probably a state oil company that could offer partnerships in exploration areas returned by other firms or for new blocks yet to be put on the table.

In Guyana's to-do list there is also a competitive tender to select the company that will market its share of oil, once a contract with a unit of Saudi Aramco expires in September.

"We are looking for long-term arrangements, for the ideal partner for marketing and getting better benefits," Bharrat said, adding the nation aims to save as much as possible on trading fees.

Indian state refiners that have shown interest in a government-to-government agreement to buy Guyanese oil after testing the Liza sweet light crude last year, would also have to participate in the tender, the minister said.

(Reporting by Marianna Parraga and Sabrina Valle; Editing by David Gregorio)

Enbridge eyes LNG opportunities as quarterly profits rise



By Nia Williams and Rithika Krishna

(Reuters) - Canadian energy pipeline company Enbridge Inc reported on Friday a rise in first-quarter profit, and outlined expansion plans as global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) surges in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Europe is scrambling to replace gas from Russia and improve long-term energy security by becoming less reliant on supplies controlled by Moscow.

That has led to record U.S. LNG export volumes this year and renewed interest in expanding Canada's LNG industry beyond a lone Shell-led facility under construction in Kitimat, northern British Columbia.

"LNG exports are a big opportunity, with momentum building across the U.S. Gulf Coast, and now more so in western Canada," Enbridge Chief Executive Al Monaco told an earnings call.

Enbridge supplies about 2 billion cubic feet a day(bcf/d) of gas to four LNG plants on the Gulf Coast. Monaco said the company has inked agreements to supply three more Gulf Coast projects that could add up to 7 bcf/d of gas and over $2 billion in new investments.

In western Canada, Enbridge has launched an open season to gauge shipper demand for a C$1 billion ($777.24 million)expansion of the T-North section of its gas pipeline system in British Columbia to support growing production and west coast LNG demand.

The company is also targeting an open season on its T-south section later this year, providing the new Woodfibre LNG project in Squamish goes ahead as planned. Woodfibre, a Pacific Energy Ltd subsidiary, issued a notice to proceed to its main contractor last month.

The company also said it would jointly develop a low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia production and export facility with energy portfolio company Humble Midstream in Texas.

Vince Paradis, Enbridge's vice president of business development in the United States, said the final investment decision would depend on customer support and regulatory approvals, but it was expected to be a $2.5 billion-$3 billion project with annual capacity to produce one million tonnes of ammonia.

Increased demand for oil and gas boosted Calgary-based Enbridge's pipeline volumes in the first quarter. The company moves about 20% of all gas consumed in the United States and most of Canada's crude exports south of the border.

Adjusted earnings rose to C$1.7 billion ($1.33 billion), or 84 Canadian cents per share, in the quarter, from C$1.63 billion, or 81 Canadian cents per share, a year earlier.

($1 = 1.2827 Canadian dollars)

(Reporting by Rithika Krishna; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Richard Chang)

AFN wants meeting with Trudeau to formalize invitation for UN special rapporteur

A standing invitation from Canada for the United Nations special rapporteur to come to this country to investigate the deaths and burials of children in relation to Indian residential schools is not enough.

“What we found out was that Canada’s correct. There might be a standing invitation to the rapporteur, but…what we need is a formal invitation to go to the rapporteur,” said National Chief RoseAnne Archibald of the Assembly of First Nations.

Archibald says she made her three-day trip to the United Nations Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues (UNPFII) in New York from April 25 to April 27 specifically to ask Francisco Calí Tzay, special rapporteur on the rights of Indigenous Peoples, to come to Canada “to investigate the deaths of our children. We’re seeking remedies for human rights violations, including genocide.”

Calí Tzay told Archibald he needed a formal invitation, preferably from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, to make that trip.

“You have to actually formalize the invitation, otherwise the rapporteur comes and is not able to do anything official in terms of documentation or study,” said Archibald.

In a press conference at the UN on April 25, Archibald was adamant that Canada should not be allowed to investigate itself as it was this country’s polices and legislation that led to the creation of the Indian residential school system.

A resolution was passed by the AFN in December to “direct the AFN to seek justice through intervention at the International Criminal Court in this matter, to hold the Imperial Crown, Government of Canada and the Vatican accountable for their actions and to seek justice for the crimes against humanity for the victims’ families and the international community.”

Canada’s “standing invitation" to all United Nations human rights special rapporteurs” was made by Daniel Canough, senior policy analyst, International Relations (United Nations), Indigenous and External Relations Branch, Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada.

Canough was addressing the UNPFII on April 28.

Speaking to Trudeau about issuing that formal invitation to Calí Tzay is one more item on the ever-growing agenda, says Archibald, who points out that there has been no formal meeting between the AFN executive committee and Trudeau since 2019.

Archibald became national chief in July 2021.

“It’s been three years since the prime minister has met with the Assembly of First Nations (executive) so that’s a problem onto itself. Yes, there will be a number of items that we will discuss with the prime minister and I believe one of the key ones is why is this (memorandum of understanding) not functioning properly. We clearly need a new process,” said Archibald.

In 2017, Canada and then-AFN National Chief Perry Bellegarde signed an MOU for a bilateral mechanism to establish a process to, among other factors, “support the renewal of the Nation-to-Nation relationship between Canada and First Nations on the basis that the First Nations are holders of Treaty rights, inherent rights, title, jurisdictions and Aboriginal rights.”

Archibald is proposing a “new economic deal.” She made that call when the federal budget was delivered in April. She wants to see First Nations benefitting fully from the resources extracted from treaty lands or unceded territories, and taxation.

“We need a new economic deal that allows First Nations the autonomy, the self-determination, the self-government that is guaranteed to them under the Constitution and those financial arrangements have to do with sharing the wealth of this country,” she said.

Other “big issues” that need to be brought into a new deal, she adds, are around safe drinking water, adequate housing, the return of culture and language, and the creation of safe and vibrant communities.

“We’re always seeking action not just words. Anybody can turn a good phrase, but when it comes to action, what is really happening on the ground,” she said.

Archibald adds that these discussions will also be happening with Jagmeet Singh, leader of the federal New Democrats, since the NDP and Liberals put an agreement in place in March to keep Trudeau’s minority government in power.

Archibald says they have “just started reaching out” to Singh’s office and are hopeful that a meeting will be confirmed shortly.

Windspeaker.com

By Shari Narine, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, Windspeaker.com, Windspeaker.com