What Sinn Fein's win could mean for Northern Ireland, UK

For the first time, a nationalist party has become the strongest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly. 

What does Sinn Fein stand for? 

And what could this result mean for the future?


Sinn Fein candidate Michelle O'Neill celebrated her party's likely victory on election night

Sinn Fein, which seeks to reunite Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland, emerged ahead of the pack after Friday's election. As vote counting neared completion late Saturday, the BBC reported that the party had captured at least 27 of the 90 seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly. The pro-Britain Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) was set for 24. The Alliance Party, which is not affiliated with either of the two main parties but aims to bridge partisan differences, was in third, with 17.

The majority Catholic Sinn Fein would like to dissolve Northern Ireland's ties to the United Kingdom, where it is a constituent region alongside England, Scotland and Wales, and unify with its EU neighbor to the south, the Republic of Ireland. Its strongest rival, the Protestant DUP, fundamentally opposes this.

For many years, Northern Ireland experienced what is known as "the troubles," a conflict between pro-Britain unionists and Irish nationalists that left more than 3,500 people dead. In 1998, after over 30 years of fighting, the conflict formally came to an end with the signing of the Good Friday Agreement.

Sinn Fein was long considered the political arm of the Irish Republic Army, which the United Kingdom classified as a terrorist organization. In summer 2005, seven years after the Good Friday peace deal, the IRA ended its armed struggle.

The IRA led a violent campaign for Irish unification over decades

Sinn Fein's charismatic leading candidate, Michelle O'Neill, is in large part responsible for the party's electoral success. Instead of dredging up Northern Ireland's painful history, the 45-year-old focused on voters' everyday worries. O'Neill came off as grounded, and she presented herself as the candidate who would represent the interests of Northern Ireland. She promised to resolve pressing problems in health care and help people affected by rising prices.

Nevertheless, Northern Ireland's history also cast a shadow over her campaign. Two of her cousins were members of the IRA. One, Tony Doris, was killed by the British Army's Special Air Service in the 1991 Coagh ambush; the other, Gareth Malachy Doris, was wounded by the SAS in the 1997 Coalisland attack and imprisoned after surgery before being released under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement in 2000. Her father, Brendan Doris, a Sinn Fein politician, was also jailed more than once for his IRA connections.

Michelle O'Neill helped lead the Sinn Finn party toward victory

Brexit weakened DUP

Sinn Fein was helped in the election by a weakened DUP. Since 2000, the pro-Britain party won every parliamentary election, peaking at about 30% support. But the UK's Brexit decision largely upset the status quo. The Northern Ireland Protocol, which regulates trade between the islands of Great Britain and Ireland, is a particular point of contention. In order to avoid a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, it was determined that a border should be drawn in the sea between the islands. This allows for the free movement of goods on the island. At the same time, Northern Ireland needs to abide by many EU conditions, even when the incoming goods originate in Great Britain. Many unionists are disappointed that the protocol creates a divide with London.

NORTHERN IRELAND'S CHANGING BORDER

The Irish Free State

Britain's response to Irish demands for independence was devolution within the UK, or home rule. Pro-British Unionists didn't want to be governed by Dublin, so two parliaments were set up, for Northern and Southern Ireland. However, nationalists still pushed for full independence and in 1922 Southern Ireland was superseded by the Irish Free State as enshrined in the Anglo-Irish Treaty (pictured).

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It is unlikely that Sinn Fein's victory will lead to Northern Ireland's quick reunification with the Republic of Ireland. It is generally thought that the party will push for a referendum on the issue so that the residents of Northern Ireland can decide whether they want unification. However, for various reasons, this will take time.

According to the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, the power to call a referendum lies with the UK government. A successful outcome cannot be directly inferred from the result of the election. Currently, only one-third of people in Northern Ireland support reunification and only one-sixth consider it to be a political priority.

Johnson, who is seen here at a DUP conference in 2018, supports the unionist party
Government deadlock expected

The Good Friday Agreement also stands in the way of any quick changes when it comes to forming a government. With its likely victory, Sinn Fein has the right to form a government with lead candidate O'Neill as first minister. However, the terms of the peace agreement require O'Neill to have a deputy minister from the DUP who is equally empowered.

Additionally, the nonaffiliated Alliance Party will likely drag out government negotiations. This is because the Good Friday Agreement does not provide for a strong neutral party in Northern Ireland's power-sharing system. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Alliance would like to reform the entire agreement.

Brexit disruptions led to empty shelves in supermarkets, such as in Belfast in 2021

The three top parties are unlikely to agree on much. The nationalist Sinn Fein is pushing for a referendum and has no interest in getting rid of the divisive Northern Ireland protocol. The DUP supports exactly the opposite. The Alliance wants to do away with the dualistic system that favors both other parties.

So, despite Sinn Fein's pending historic victory, Belfast is likely headed toward political stalemate. Such an uncertain situation is not unusual in Northern Ireland, however. The constitution already provides a solution: If the government is incapable of acting, London can impose direct rule in the meantime.

This article was originally written in German.

Conservatives lose hundreds of seats in British midterm elections


British Prime Minister Boris Johnson answers questions on parties that broke COVID-19 lockdown restrictions from the Labour party's Keir Starmer in Parliament on January 26. Johnson's Conservative Party lost hundreds of council seats across Britain in mid-term elections.

 File Photo by Hugo Philpott/UPI | License Photo


May 6 (UPI) -- British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party lost ground in British national elections as results came in Friday. Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer proclaimed his party is "back on track" to succeed in the next general election.

During a speech in northwest London, Johnson admitted the rough going his party faced, but called the results "mixed."

"We had a tough night in some parts of the country, but on the other hand, in other parts of the country you are still seeing Conservatives going forward and making quite remarkable gains in places that haven't voted Conservative for a long time, if ever," Johnson said.

During a stop in north London Friday, Starmer told supporters the midterm election results were a big turning back as he declared the results sent the message to the prime minister that Britain deserves better.

A scandal over parties that violated COVID-19 lockdown rules damaged Conservative candidates. In London, Conservatives lost the Wandsworth borough they had controlled for decades.

At least 124 of 146 councils in England had declared results by Friday. The Conservatives lost more than 280 seats.

In Northern Ireland, where final results are expected Saturday, all 90 members of the assembly were up for election. The Sinn Fein Party there was expected to make historic gains.

With much of the vote counted Friday, Sinn Fein was on track to win the most seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly.

The Conservative Party lost hundreds of seats across Britain to the Labour Party and Liberal Democrats.

Gavin Barwell, former chief of staff for Johnson's predecessor, said the London results were a catastrophic wake-up call for the Conservative Party.

How climate scientists keep hope alive as damage worsens


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University of Maine climate scientist Jacquelyn Gill examines a cone from a western pine at the Sawyer Environmental Research Center, Wednesday, May 4, 2022, in Orono, Maine. Gill says her work as a paleo-ecologist and climatologist has given her hope for the Earth's resilience despite global warming. Climate scientists who have been through a lot both personally and professionally say the key is often action. 

(AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)


By SETH BORENSTEIN

In the course of a single year, University of Maine climate scientist Jacquelyn Gill lost both her mother and her stepfather. She struggled with infertility, then during research in the Arctic, she developed embolisms in both lungs, was transferred to an intensive care unit in Siberia and nearly died. She was airlifted back home and later had a hysterectomy. Then the pandemic hit.

Her trials and her perseverance, she said, seemed to make her a magnet for emails and direct messages on Twitter “asking me how to be hopeful, asking me, like, what keeps me going?”

Gill said she has accepted the idea that she is “everybody’s climate midwife” and coaches them to hope through action.

Hope and optimism often blossom in the experts toiling in the gloomy fields of global warming,COVID-19 and Alzheimer’s disease.

How climate scientists like Gill or emergency room doctors during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic cope with their depressing day-to-day work, yet remain hopeful, can offer help to ordinary people dealing with a world going off the rails, psychologists said.

“I think it’s because they see a way out. They see that things can be done,” said Pennsylvania State University psychology professor Janet Swim. “Hope is seeing a pathway, even though the pathway seems far, far away.”

United Nations Environment Programme Director Inger Andersen said she simply cannot do her job without being an optimist.

“I do not wish to sound naive in choosing to be the ‘realistic optimist,’ but the alternative to being the realistic optimist is either to hold one’s ears and wait for doomsday or to party while the orchestra of the Titanic plays,” Andersen said. “I do not subscribe to either.”

Dr. Kristina Goff works in the intensive care unit at University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center and said at times she felt overwhelmed during the pandemic. She keeps a file folder at home of “little notes that say ‘hey you made a difference.’”

“I think half of the battle in my job is learning to take what could be a very overwhelming anxiety and turn it into productivity and resilience,” Goff said. “You just have to focus on these little areas where you can make a difference.”

Alzheimer’s disease may be one of the bleakest diagnoses a physician can convey, one where the future can appear hopeless. Yet Dr. Ronald Petersen, director of the Mayo Clinic Alzheimer’s research center and a man colleagues describe as optimistic and passionate, doesn’t see it that way.

“I don’t think it’s depressing. I don’t think it’s gloomy. It’s difficult. It’s challenging,” Petersen said. But “we’re so much better off today than five years ago, 10 years ago.”

The coping technique these scientists have in common is doing something to help. The word they often use is “agency.” It’s especially true for climate researchers — tarred as doomsayers by political types who reject the science.

Gill, who describes herself as a lifelong cheerleader, has also battled with depression. She said what’s key in fighting eco-anxiety is that “regular depression and regular anxiety tools work just as well. And so that’s why I tell people: ‘Be a doer. Get other there. Don’t just doomscroll.’ There are entry level ways that anyone, literally anyone, can help out. And the more we do that, ‘Oh, it actually works,’ it turns out.”

It’s not just about individual actions, like giving up air travel, or becoming a vegetarian, it’s about working together with other people in a common effort, Gill said. Individual action is helpful on climate change, but is not enough, she said. To bend the curve of rising temperatures and the buildup of heat-trapping gases, steady collective action, such as the youth climate activism movement and voting, gives true agency.

“I think maybe that’s helped stave off some of this hopelessness,” she said. “I go to a scientific meeting and I look around at the thousands of scientists that are working on this. And I’m like ‘Yeah, we’re doing this.’”

Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini said that, at 35, he figures it’s his relative youth that gives him hope.

“When I think about would could be, I gain a sense of optimism and create an attitude that this is something I can do something about,” Gensini said.

The U.N.’s Andersen is a veteran of decades of work on ecological issues and thinks this experience has made her optimistic.

“I have seen shifts on other critical environmental issues such as banning of toxic material, better air quality standards, the repair of the ozone hole, the phase-out of leaded petrol and much more,” Andersen said. “I know that hard work, underpinned by science, underpinned by strong policy and yes, underpinned by multilateral and activist action, can lead to change.”

Deke Arndt, chief of climate science and services at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Center for Environmental Information, said what buoys him with an overwhelming optimism is his personal faith, and remembering all the people who have helped his family over the generations — through the Dust Bowl for his grandparents and through infertility and then neonatal issues for his son.

“We’ve experienced the miracle of hands-on care from fellow human beings,” Arndt said. “You kind of spend the rest of your life trying to repay.”

“Where people are suffering not through their own purchase, that makes me want to recommit as a scientist and a Catholic,” Arndt said. “We’ve got to do as much as we can.”

What’s more, Gill and several others said, the science tells them that it is not game over for Earth.

“The work that I do inherently lends me a sense of agency,” Gill said. “As a paleo-ecologist (who studies the past) and climatologist, I have a better sense of Earth’s resilience than a lot of people do.”

It helps that she studies plants and deals with changes on a glacial timescale. She pointed to Georgia Tech climate scientist Kim Cobb, who spent much of her career diving and studying the same coral reef in the Pacific, only to return in 2016 and find it dead: “God, I cannot imagine what a gut punch.”

Cobb laughed heartily when she heard how Gill described the life of a reef scientist.

From 1997 to 2016, Cobb dived at one of the tiny islands of Kiritimati in the Pacific, monitoring the effects of climate change and El Nino on a delicate coral reef there. Super hot water killed it in 2016, with only faint signs of life clinging on.

That fall, Cobb made one last trip. It was during the elections. A big Hillary Clinton fan, Cobb was wearing a Madame President shirt when she heard the news that Donald Trump was elected. She said fell into a pit of despair that lasted maybe a couple months.

“And then on New Year’s Eve, I decided that I probably had enough and I know my husband had enough, my kids had had enough. So people needed their mother and their wife back,” Cobb said. “I decided to grope for another path out there.”

“I am not able to wallow for so long before I start asking myself some questions like, ‘Look you know how you can put your position to work? How can you put your resources to work?’” Cobb said.

She and her family cut their personal carbon emissions 80%. She doesn’t fly on planes anymore. She went vegan, composts, installed solar panels. She works on larger climate action instead of her more focused previous research. And she bikes everywhere, which she said is like mental health therapy.

She tells people when they are anxious about climate change, “there’s not going to be a win, a shining moment where we can declare success,” but “it’s never going to be too late to act. It’s never going to be too late to fix this.”

NOAA’s Arndt said the climate of the 20th century he grew up with is gone forever. He grieves the loss of that, but also finds mourning what’s gone “weirdly liberating.”

With climate change “we have to kind of hold hope and grief at the same time, like they’re kind of twins that we’re cradling,” Maine’s Gill said. “We have to both understand and witness what has happened and what we’ve lost. And then fiercely commit to protecting what remains. And I don’t think you can do that from a place of hopelessness.”

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Follow AP’s climate coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate

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Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears

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Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

EXPLAINER: How 81-1 shot Rich Strike won the Kentucky Derby


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Rich Strike, front right, with Sonny Leon aboard, wins the 148th running of the Kentucky Derby horse race at Churchill Downs Saturday, May 7, 2022, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

This doesn’t happen. Horses at odds of nearly 81-1 don’t win the Kentucky Derby. Jockeys who have never won any big stakes race of any kind don’t win the Kentucky Derby. Owners with fewer than 10 career wins don’t win the Kentucky Derby.

Rich Strike and his connections disagree with those sentiments.

One of the biggest upsets in racing history happened Saturday in the Kentucky Derby, when Rich Strike shocked the establishment by running past everyone and winning the first leg of this year’s Triple Crown series.

Those who bet $2 to win on Rich Strike got $163.60 in return. Not bad for about two minutes of work. For jockey Sonny Leon, trainer Eric Reed and owner Rick Dawson, the result was life-changing. Leon was racing Friday at a little-known track in Cincinnati called Belterra Park. Reed’s biggest win before Saturday was with a filly called Satans Quick Chick in a Grade 2 race nearly 12 years ago. Dawson, a half-hour or so after the Derby, rhetorically asked a question to anyone within earshot.

“What planet is this?” Dawson said.

Indeed, it’s a whole new world that he’s part of now. And a 3-year-old colt that was much closer to last place than first for most of the race Saturday made it all happen.

HOW DID HE EVEN GET IN?

Good luck for him, bad luck for another. The Kentucky Derby can’t have more than 20 horses in the field. Rich Strike was 21st on the list. If one of the 20 horses that qualified didn’t scratch from the race before 9 a.m. Friday, Rich Strike’s Derby plan would have ended.

At 8:45 a.m. Friday, the call came: No scratches. Reed texted his father: “Didn’t happen.” The security guard working the barn and protecting Rich Strike was sent home. Plans were being made to run Rich Strike in a race this week in New York instead.

Around that time, the connections for Ethereal Road — trained by D. Wayne Lukas — told Derby officials that they were pulling out of the race. Reed got another call at 8:55 telling him not to move the horse, then another call a minute or two later with the official word.

They were in.

“What just happened?” Reed asked.

Turns out, history was starting to happen.

HOW DID HE WIN?

Think of the horses like race cars. There’s a finite amount of fuel in the tank. The faster you burn the fuel, the quicker the tank empties. And that’s exactly what happened in the Kentucky Derby.

Summer Is Tomorrow was the leader after a quarter-mile, or two furlongs. He covered that distance in 21.78 seconds — the fastest time in Kentucky Derby history. No horse can sustain that pace for 1 1/4 miles. And Summer Is Tomorrow wound up finishing last in the 20-horse field, 64 1/2 lengths behind Rich Strike.

It wasn’t just Summer Is Tomorrow. Many horses went out on a blistering pace, because so many trainers and jockeys had decided their best move was to get close to the lead for the opening portions of the race.

The biggest indicator that this was going to be a wild finish probably came when track announcer Larry Collmus briefly stopped his rundown of which horse was where in the field at the half-mile mark. “The opening half-mile was — WHOA! — blazing fast, 45.36 seconds,” Collmus said.

Those fuel tanks were emptying far faster than anticipated.

At that half-mile mark, Rich Strike was ahead of only two horses. He was sitting in 18th place.

HOW DID RICH STRIKE PASS SO MANY HORSES?

Two answers: He ran by some, and some, as they say in racing, stopped running.

Technically, that last part isn’t true. All 20 horses were “running” when they crossed the finish line. Nobody “stopped.” But some simply ran out of gas, meaning their all-out sprints had become little more than a gallop or a jog.

Rich Strike had tons of fuel left. He also had one other major advantage: He was near the rail.

It’s simple math: The closer one is to the rail, the shorter of a distance one has to run. Most of the contending horses as the leaders turned into the stretch and headed home were fanned out wide across the track, moves that made their trips a bit longer.

This is where Leon had a huge decision to make. He had to get around Messier, one of the early leaders who was fading fast. Leon decided to veer slightly to his right and get around Messier, then dove back down toward the rail to finish Rich Strike’s run. It was almost as if nobody saw him coming.

They saw him at the end. That’s all that mattered.

HOW DID HANDICAPPERS GET THIS SO WRONG?

If we knew that, everyone would have cashed their Derby tickets. Rich Strike had just one win coming into the race (though, in fairness, it was by 17 1/4 lengths, which is impressive regardless of the level of competition).

He’s a closer. He hadn’t won any of his last five races but made late moves in all of them, going from sixth to third, seventh to fifth, eighth to third, 11th to fourth and 11th to third. Passing horses down the stretch is apparently his favorite pastime. Handicappers definitely missed that.

But reputations also matter. Frankly, not many horseplayers knew who Leon was, or who Reed was, before Saturday.

They do now.

“It’s a horse race, and anybody can win,” Reed said. “And the toteboard doesn’t mean a thing.”

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Preakness is May 21 at Pimlico, and it would seem like Rich Strike will head there to see if he can move one win away from grabbing the most improbable Triple Crown ever.

“That’s probably the plan,” Reed said Sunday. “I’m not going to do a whole lot with him and I don’t like to run back quick. You get one like this in a lifetime and you have to protect him.”

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Workers grapple with new stresses as they return to office

By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO

yesterday

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This undated photo provided by Ajinomoto Health & Nutrition shows the conference and work space at Ajinomoto Health & Nutrition in Itasca, Ill. Francine Yoon, a 24-year-old food scientist at Ajinomoto Health and Nutrition NA has been working mostly in person since the pandemic, including at her current job that she started last fall. But moving in last year with her older parents, both in their early 60s, has led to some heightened level of anxiety because she's worried about passing on the virus to them.

 (Ajinomoto Health & Nutrition via AP)


NEW YORK (AP) — Last summer, Julio Carmona started the process of weaning himself off a fully remote work schedule by showing up to the office once a week.

The new hybrid schedule at his job at a state agency in Stratford, Connecticut, still enabled him to spend time cooking dinner for his family and taking his teenage daughter to basketball.

But in the next few months, he’s facing the likelihood of more mandatory days in the office. And that’s creating stress for the father of three.

Carmona, 37, whose father died from COVD-19 last year, worries about contracting the virus but he also ticks off a list of other anxieties: increased costs for lunch and gas, day care costs for his newborn baby, and his struggle to maintain a healthy work-life balance.

“Working from home has been a lot less stressful when it comes to work-life balance,” said Carmona, who works in finance at Connecticut’s Department of Children and Families. “You are more productive because there are a lot less distractions.”

As more companies mandate a return to the office, workers must readjust to pre-pandemic rituals like long commutes, juggling child care and physically interacting with colleagues. But such routines have become more difficult two years later. Spending more time with your colleagues could increase exposure to the coronavirus, for example, while inflation has increased costs for lunch and commuting.

Among workers who were remote and have gone back at least one day a week in-person, more say things in general have gotten better than worse and that they’ve been more productive rather than less, an April poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows. But the level of stress for these workers is elevated.

Overall, among employed adults, the April AP-NORC poll shows 16% say they work remotely, 13% work both remotely and in-person and 72% say they work only in-person.

Thirty-nine percent of employees who had worked at home but have returned to the office say the way things are going generally has gotten better since returning in-person at the workplace, while 23% say things have gotten worse; 38% say things have stayed the same. Forty-five percent say the amount of work getting done has improved, while 18% say it’s worsened.

But 41% of returned workers say the amount of stress they experience has worsened; 22% say it’s gotten better and 37% say it hasn’t changed.

Even workers who have been in person throughout the pandemic are more negative than positive about the way the pandemic has impacted their work lives. Thirty-five percent say the way things are going in general has gotten worse, while 20% say it’s gotten better. Fifty percent say their stress has worsened, while just 11% say it’s gotten better; 39% say there’s no difference.

At least half of in-person workers say balancing responsibilities, potential COVID exposure at work, their commute and social interaction are sources of stress. But fewer than a third call these “major” sources of stress.

People with children were more likely to report their return was having an adverse effect, some of it stemming from concerns about keeping their families safe from COVID and maintaining a better work-life balance. Most said it could help alleviate stress if their employer provided more flexible work options and workplace safety precautions from the virus. But for some workers, a physical return — in any form — will be hard to navigate.

“A lot of people have gotten accustomed to working from home. It’s been two years,” said Jessica Edwards, national director of strategic alliances and development at the National Alliance on Mental Illness, a U.S.-based advocacy group. “For companies, it’s all about prioritizing mental health and being communicative about it. They should not be afraid of asking their employees how are they really doing.”

Companies like Vanguard are now expanding virtual wellness workshops that started in the early days of the pandemic or before. They’re also expanding benefits to include meditation apps and virtual therapy. Meanwhile, Target, which hasn’t set a mandatory return, is giving teams the flexibility of adjusting meeting times to earlier or later in the day to accommodate employees’ schedules.

A lot is at stake. Estimates show that untreated mental illness may cost companies up to $300 billion annually, largely due to impacts on productivity, absenteeism, and increases in medical and disability expenses, according to the National Alliance on Mental Illness.

Russ Glass, CEO of online mental health and wellbeing platform Headspace Health, said he has seen a fourfold spike in the use of behavioral health coaching and a fivefold spike in clinical services like therapy and psychiatric help during the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic days. With apps like Ginger and Headspace, the company serves more than 100 million people and 3,500 companies. Among the top worries: anxiety over contracting COVID-19, and struggles with work-life balance.

“We haven’t seen it abate. That level of care has just stayed high,” Glass said.

The constant wave of new virus surges hasn’t helped.

Francine Yoon, a 24-year-old food scientist at Ajinomoto Health and Nutrition North America, in Itasca, Illinois, has been working mostly in person since the pandemic, including at her current job that she started last fall. Yoon said her company has helped to ease anxiety by doing things like creating huddle rooms and empty offices to create more distance for those experiencing any form of anxiety about being in close proximity to colleagues.

But moving in last year with her older parents, both in their early 60s, has led to some heightened level of anxiety because she’s worried about passing on the virus to them. She said every surge of new cases creates some anxiety.

“When cases are low, I feel comfortable and confident that I am OK and that I will be OK,” she said. ’When surges occur, I can’t help but become cautious.”

As for Carmona, he’s trying to lower his stress and is considering participating in his office’s online meditation sessions. He’s also thinking of carpooling to reduce gas costs.

“I am one of those people that take it day by day,” he said. “You have to try to keep your stress level balanced because you will run your brain into the ground thinking about things that could go haywire.”

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,085 adults was conducted April 14-18 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

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AP staff writer Haleluya Hadero in New York contributed to this report.

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Follow Anne D’Innocenzio: http://twitter.com/ADInnocenzio

Detailed ‘open source’ news investigations are catching on

By DAVID BAUDER

yesterday

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FILE - Rioters try to break through a police barrier at the Capitol in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021. News organizations are using sophisticated new technologies to transform the way they conduct investigations. Much of it is publicly available, or “open-source” material from mobile phones, satellite images and security cameras, but it also extends to computer modeling and artificial intelligence. A reporting form that barely existed a decade ago is becoming an important part of journalism's future. (AP Photo/John Minchillo, File)


NEW YORK (AP) — One of the more striking pieces of journalism from the Ukraine war featured intercepted radio transmissions from Russian soldiers indicating an invasion in disarray, their conversations even interrupted by a hacker literally whistling “Dixie.”

It was the work of an investigations unit at The New York Times that specializes in open-source reporting, using publicly available material like satellite images, mobile phone or security camera recordings, geolocation and other internet tools to tell stories.

The field is in its infancy but rapidly catching on. The Washington Post announced last month it was adding six people to its video forensics team, doubling its size. The University of California at Berkeley last fall became the first college to offer an investigative reporting class that focuses specifically on these techniques.

Two video reports from open-source teams — The Times’ “Day of Rage” reconstruction of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot and the Post’s look at how a 2020 racial protest in Washington’s Lafayette Square was cleared out — won duPont-Columbia awards for excellence in digital and broadcast journalism.

The Ukraine radio transmissions, where soldiers complained about a lack of supplies and faulty equipment, were verified and brought to life with video and eyewitness reports from the town where they were operating.

At one point, what appears to be a Ukrainian interloper breaks in.

“Go home,” he advised in Russian. “It’s better to be a deserter than fertilizer.”

The Times’ visual investigations unit, founded in 2017 and now numbering 17 staff members, “is absolutely one of the most exciting areas of growth that we have,” said Joe Kahn, incoming executive editor.

The work is meticulous. “Day of Rage” is composed mostly of video shot by protesters themselves, in the heady days before they realized posting them online could get them into trouble, along with material from law enforcement and journalists. It outlines specifically how the attack began, who the ringleaders were and how people were killed.

Video sleuthing also contradicted an initial Pentagon story about an American drone strike that killed civilians in Afghanistan last year. “Looking to us for protection, they instead became some of the last victims in America’s longest war,” the report said.

“There’s just this overwhelming amount of evidence out there on the open web that if you know how to turn over the rocks and uncover that information, you can connect the dots between all these factoids to arrive at the indisputable truth around an event,” said Malachy Browne, senior story producer on the Times’ team.

“Day of Rage” has been viewed nearly 7.3 million times on YouTube. A Post probe into the deaths at a 2021 Travis Scott concert in Houston has been seen more than 2 million times, and its story on George Floyd’s last moments logged nearly 6.5 million views.

The Post team is an outgrowth of efforts begun in 2019 to verify the authenticity of potentially newsworthy video. There are many ways to smoke out fakes, including examining shadows to determine if the apparent time of day in the video corresponds to when the activity supposedly captured actually took place.

“The Post has seen the kind of impact that this kind of storytelling can have,” said Nadine Ajaka, leader of its visual forensics team. “It’s another tool in our reporting mechanisms. It’s really nice because it’s transparent. It allows readers to understand what we know and what we don’t know, by plainly showing it.”

Still new, the open-source storytelling isn’t bound by rules that govern story length or form. A video can last a few minutes or, in the case of “Day of Rage,” 40 minutes. Work can stand alone or be embedded in text stories. They can be investigations or experiences; The Times used security and cellphone video, along with interviews, to tell the story of one Ukraine apartment house as Russians invaded.

Leaders in the field cite the work of the website Storyful, which calls itself a social media intelligence agency, and Bellingcat as pioneers. Bellingcat, an investigative news website, and its leader, Eliot Higgins, are best known for covering the Syrian civil war and investigating alleged Russian involvement in shooting down a Malaysian Airlines flight over Ukraine in 2014.

The Arab Spring in the early 2010s was another key moment. Many of the protests were coordinated in a digital space and journalists who could navigate this had access to a world of information, said Alexa Koenig, executive director of the Human Rights Center at the University of California at Berkeley’s law school.

The commercial availability of satellite images was a landmark, too. The Times used satellite images to quickly disprove Russian claims that atrocities committed in Ukraine had been staged.

Other technology, including artificial intelligence, is helping journalists who seek information about how something happened when they couldn’t be on the scene. The Times, in 2018, worked with a London company to artificially reconstruct a building in Syria that helped contradict official denials about the use of chemical weapons.

Similarly, The Associated Press constructed a 3D model of a theater in Mariupol bombed by the Russians and, combining it with video and interviews with survivors, produced an investigative report that concluded more people died there than was previously believed.

AP has also worked with Koenig’s team on an investigation into terror tactics by Myanmar’s military rulership, and used modeling for an examination on the toll of war in a neighborhood in Gaza. It is collaborating with PBS’ Frontline to gather evidence of war crimes in Ukraine and is further looking to expand its digital efforts. Experts cite BBC’s “Africa Eye” as another notable effort in the field.

As efforts expand, Koenig said journalists need to make sure their stories drive the tools that are used, instead of the other way around. She hears regularly now from news organizations looking to build their own investigate units and need her advice — or students. Berkeley grad Haley Willis is on the team at The Times.

It feels, Koenig said, like a major shift has happened in the past year.

Browne said the goal of his unit’s reporting is to create stories with impact that touch upon broader truths. A probe about a Palestinian medic shot by an Israeli soldier on the Gaza strip was as much about the conflict in general than her death, for example.

“We have similar mandates,” the Post’s Ajaka said, “which is to help make sense of some of the most urgent news of the day.”

After leak, religious rift over legal abortion on display

By DEEPA BHARATH and LUIS ANDRES HENAO

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In this photo provided by Felicity Figueroa, Rabbi Stephen Einstein, left, founding rabbi of Congregation B’nai Tzedek in Fountain Valley, Calif., stands with the Rev. Sarah Halverson-Cano, senior pastor of Irvine United Congregational Church in Irvine, Calif., at a rally supporting abortion access, in Santa Ana, Calif., May 3, 2022. (Felicity Figueroa via AP)

America’s faithful are bracing — some with cautionary joy and others with looming dread — for the Supreme Court to potentially overturn the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade decision and end the nationwide right to legal abortion.

A reversal of the 49-year-old ruling has never felt more possible since a draft opinion suggesting justices may do so was leaked this week. While religious believers at the heart of the decades-old fight over abortion are shocked at the breach of high court protocol, they are still as deeply divided and their beliefs on the contentious issue as entrenched as ever.

National polls show that most Americans support abortion access. A Public Religion Research Institute survey from March found that a majority of religious groups believe it should be legal in most cases — with the exception of white evangelical Protestants, 69% of whom said the procedure should be outlawed in most or all cases.

In conservative Christian corners, the draft opinion has sparked hope. Faith groups that have historically taken a strong anti-abortion stance, including the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, have urged followers to pray for Roe’s reversal.

The Rev. Manuel Rodriguez, pastor of the 17,000-strong Our Lady of Sorrows Catholic church in New York City’s Queens borough, said his mostly Latino congregation is heartened by the prospect of Roe’s demise at a time when courts in some Latin American countries such as Colombia and Argentina have moved to legalize abortion.

“You don’t fix a crime committing another crime,” Rodriguez said.

Bishop Garland R. Hunt Sr., senior pastor of The Father’s House, a nondenominational, predominantly African American church in Peachtree Corners, Georgia, agreed.

“This is the result of ongoing, necessary prayer since 1973,” Hunt said. “As a Christian, I believe that God is the one that gives life — not politicians or justices. I certainly want to see more babies protected in the womb.”

No faith is monolithic on the abortion issue. Yet many followers of faiths that don’t prohibit abortion are aghast that a view held by a minority of Americans could supersede their individual rights and religious beliefs.

In Judaism, for example, many authorities say abortion is permitted or even required in cases where the woman’s life is in danger.

“This ruling would be outlawing abortion in cases when our religion would permit us,” said Rabbi Danya Ruttenberg, scholar in residence at the National Council of Jewish Women, “and it is basing its concepts of when life begins on someone else’s philosophy or theology.”

In Islam, similarly, there is room for “all aspects of reproductive choice from family planning to abortion,” said Nadiah Mohajir, co-founder of Heart Women and Girls, a Chicago nonprofit that works with Muslim communities on reproductive rights and other gender issues.

“One particular political agenda is infringing on my right and my religious and personal freedom,” she said.

According to new data released Wednesday by the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, 56% of U.S. Muslims say abortion should be legal in most or all cases, a figure that’s about on par with the beliefs of U.S. Catholics.

Donna Nicolino, a student at Fire Lotus Temple, a Zen Buddhist center in Brooklyn, said her faith calls on followers to show compassion to others. Restricting or banning abortion fails to consider why women have abortions and would hurt the poor and marginalized the most, she said.

“If we truly value life as a culture,” Nicolino said, “we would take steps like guaranteeing maternal health care, health care for children, decent housing for pregnant women.”

Sikhism prohibits sex-selective killings — female infanticide — but is more nuanced when it comes to abortion and favors compassion and personal choice, said Harinder Singh, senior fellow of research and policy at Sikhri, a New Jersey-based nonprofit that creates educational resources about the faith.

A 2019 survey he co-led with research associate Jasleen Kaur found that 65% of Sikhs said abortion should be up to the woman instead of the government or faith leaders, while 77% said Sikh institutions should support those who are considering abortions.

“The surveyed Sikh community is very clear that no religious or political authority should be deciding this issue,” Singh said.

Compassion is a virtue emphasized as well by some Christian leaders who are calling on their ardently anti-abortion colleagues to lower the temperature as they speak out on the issue.

The Rev. Kirk Winslow, pastor of Canvas Presbyterian Church in Irvine, California, said he views abortion through a human and spiritual lens instead of as a political issue. Communities should turn to solutions such as counseling centers, parenting courses, health care and education, he said, instead of getting “drawn into a culture war.”

He has counseled women struggling with whether to have an abortion, and stresses the importance of empathy.

“Amidst the pain, fear and confusion of an unexpected pregnancy, no one has ever said, ‘I’m excited to get an abortion,’” Winslow said. “And there are times when getting an abortion may be the best chance we have to bring God’s peace to the situation. And I know many would disagree with that position. I would only respond that most haven’t been in my office for these very real and very difficult conversations.”

Likewise, Caitlyn Stenerson, an Evangelical Covenant Church pastor and campus minister in Minnesota’s Twin Cities area, called on faith leaders to “tread carefully,” bearing in mind that women in their pews may have had abortions for a variety of reasons and may be grieving and wrestling with trauma.

“As a pastor my job isn’t to heap more shame on people but to bring them to Jesus,” Stenerson said. “We are called to speak truth, but with love.”

Ahead of a final court ruling expected to be handed down this summer, faith leaders on both sides are preparing for the possibility of abortion becoming illegal in many states.

The Rev. Sarah Halverson-Cano, senior pastor of Irvine United Congregational Church in Irvine, California, said her congregation is considering providing sanctuary and other support to women who may travel to the state to end their pregnancies. On Tuesday, the day after the draft opinion leaked, she led congregants and community members in a rally for abortion rights in nearby Santa Ana.

“Our faith calls us to be responsive to those in need,” Halverson-Cano said. “It’s time to stand with women and families and look into how to respond to this horrible injustice.”

Niklas Koehler, president of the Students for Life group at Franciscan University of Steubenville, a private Catholic college in eastern Ohio, said he and others regularly attend a special Mass on Saturday with prayers for an end to abortion. They then travel across the state line to nearby Pittsburgh to hold a prayer vigil and distribute leaflets outside an abortion clinic.

Actions like that will continue to be necessary even if the draft opinion becomes the law of the land, Koehler said, because abortion will likely remain legal in states such as Pennsylvania.

“We will still be going to pray outside the clinic,” he said.

___

Bharath reported from Los Angeles and Henao from New York. Associated Press writers Giovanna Dell’Orto in St. Paul, Minnesota, and Peter Smith in Pittsburgh contributed.

___

Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.

Taliban divisions deepen as Afghan women defy veil edict

By KATHY GANNON

TODAY

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A woman wearing a burka and her children walk in front of their house in Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, May 8, 2022. Afghan women are furious and fearful over a recent decree by the country's Taliban leaders that reinstated the burqa and similar outfits as mandatory for them in public. But some are defying the strict interpretation of Islamic dress codes, venturing out with less restrictive versions than that which the Taliban demanded — outfits that only reveal their eyes. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi)

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Arooza was furious and afraid, keeping her eyes open for Taliban on patrol as she and a friend shopped Sunday in Kabul’s Macroyan neighborhood.

The math teacher was fearful her large shawl, wrapped tight around her head, and sweeping pale brown coat would not satisfy the latest decree by the country’s religiously driven Taliban government. After all, more than just her eyes were showing. Her face was visible.

Arooza, who asked to be identified by just one name to avoid attracting attention, wasn’t wearing the all-encompassing burqa preferred by the Taliban, who on Saturday issued a new dress code for women appearing in public. The edict said only a woman’s eyes should be visible.

The decree by the Taliban’s hardline leader Hibaitullah Akhunzada even suggested women shouldn’t leave their homes unless necessary and outlines a series of punishments for male relatives of women violating the code.


It was a major blow to the rights of women in Afghanistan, who for two decades had been living with relative freedom before the Taliban takeover last August — when U.S. and other foreign forces withdrew in the chaotic end to a 20-year war.

A reclusive leader, Akhunzada rarely travels outside southern Kandahar, the traditional Taliban heartland. He favors the harsh elements of the group’s previous time in power, in the 1990s, when girls and women were largely barred from school, work and public life.

Like Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar, Akhunzada imposes a strict brand of Islam that marries religion with ancient tribal traditions, often blurring the two.

Akhunzada has taken tribal village traditions where girls often marry at puberty, and rarely leave their homes, and called it a religious demand, analysts say.

The Taliban have been divided between pragmatists and hardliners, as they struggle to transition from an insurgency to a governing body. Meanwhile, their government has been dealing with a worsening economic crisis. And Taliban efforts to win recognition and aid from Western nations have floundered, largely because they have not formed a more representative government, and restricted the rights of girls and women.

Until now, hardliners and pragmatists in the movement have avoided open confrontation.

A burqa-clad woman and her child wait behind fences in Kabul, Afghanistan, on September 17, 2009. The Taliban has ruled that all women in the country must now wear the full-body covering. 

File Photo by Mohammad Kheirkhah/UPI | License Photo

Yet divisions were deepened in March, on the eve of the new school year, when Akhunzada issued a last-minute decision that girls should not be allowed to go to school after completing the sixth grade. In the weeks ahead of the start of the school year, senior Taliban officials had told journalists all girls would be allowed back in school. Akhunzada asserted that allowing the older girls back to school violated Islamic principles.

A prominent Afghan who meets the leadership and is familiar with their internal squabbles said that a senior Cabinet minister expressed his outrage over Akhunzada’s views at a recent leadership meeting. He spoke on condition of anonymity to speak freely.

Torek Farhadi, a former government adviser, said he believes Taliban leaders have opted not to spar in public because they fear any perception of divisions could undermine their rule.

“The leadership does not see eye to eye on a number of matters but they all know that if they don’t keep it together, everything might fall apart,” Farhadi said. “In that case, they might start clashes with each other.”

“For that reason, the elders have decided to put up with each other, including when it comes to non-agreeable decisions which are costing them a lot of uproar inside Afghanistan and internationally,” Farhadi added.

Some of the more pragmatic leaders appear to be looking for quiet workarounds that will soften the hard-line decrees. Since March, there has been a growing chorus, even among the most powerful Taliban leaders, to return older girls to school while quietly ignoring other repressive edicts.

Earlier this month, Anas Haqqani, the younger brother of Sirajuddin, who heads the powerful Haqqani network, told a conference in the eastern city of Khost that girls are entitled to education and that they would soon return to school — though he didn’t say when. He also said that women had a role in building the nation.

“You will receive very good news that will make everyone very happy... this problem will be resolved in the following days,” Haqqani said at the time.

In the Afghan capital of Kabul on Sunday, women wore the customary conservative Muslim dress. Most wore a traditional hijab, consisting of a headscarf and long robe or coat, but few covered their faces, as directed by the Taliban leader a day earlier. Those wearing a burqa, a head-to-toe garment that covers the face and hides the eyes behind netting were in the minority.

“Women in Afghanistan wear the hijab, and many wear the burqa, but this isn’t about hijab, this is about the Taliban wanting to make all women disappear,” said Shabana, who wore bright gold bangles beneath her flowing black coat, her hair hidden behind a black head scarf with sequins. “This is about the Taliban wanting to make us invisible.”

Arooza said the Taliban rulers are driving Afghans to leave their country. “Why should I stay here if they don’t want to give us our human rights? We are human,” she said.

Several women stopped to talk. They all challenged the latest edict.

“We don’t want to live in a prison,” said Parveen, who like the other women wanted only to give one name.

“These edicts attempt to erase a whole gender and generation of Afghans who grew up dreaming of a better world,” said Obaidullah Baheer, a visiting scholar at New York’s New School and former lecturer at the American University in Afghanistan.

“It pushes families to leave the country by any means necessary. It also fuels grievances that would eventually spill over into large-scale mobilization against the Taliban,” he said.

After decades of war, Baheer said it wouldn’t have taken much on the Taliban’s part to make Afghans content with their rule “an opportunity that the Taliban are wasting fast.”

Afghanistan’s Taliban order women to cover up head to toe

By KATHY GANNON

yesterday

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Afghan women wait to receive food rations distributed by a Saudi humanitarian aid group, in Kabul, Afghanistan, Monday, April 25, 2022. Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers on Saturday, May 7, ordered all Afghan women to wear head-to-toe clothing in public, a sharp hard-line pivot that confirmed the worst fears of rights activists and was bound to further complicate Taliban dealings with an already distrustful international community. 

(AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi)


KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers on Saturday ordered all Afghan women to wear head-to-toe clothing in public — a sharp, hard-line pivot that confirmed the worst fears of rights activists and was bound to further complicate Taliban dealings with an already distrustful international community.

The decree says that women should leave the home only when necessary, and that male relatives would face punishment — starting with a summons and escalating up to court hearings and jail time — for women’s dress code violations.

It was the latest in a series of repressive edicts issued by the Taliban leadership, not all of which have been implemented. Last month, for example, the Taliban forbade women to travel alone, but after a day of opposition, that has since been silently ignored.

On Sunday in the capital, Kabul, many women on the street were wearing the same large shawls as before. Women also arrived unaccompanied at Kabul International Airport, while in the city women boarded small buses alone.

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan said it was deeply concerned with what appeared to be a formal directive that would be implemented and enforced, adding that it would seek clarifications from the Taliban about the decision.

“This decision contradicts numerous assurances regarding respect for and protection of all Afghans’ human rights, including those of women and girls, that had been provided to the international community by Taliban representatives during discussions and negotiations over the past decade,” it said in a statement.

The decree, which calls for women to only show their eyes and recommends they wear the head-to-toe burqa, evoked similar restrictions on women during the Taliban’s previous rule between 1996 and 2001.

“We want our sisters to live with dignity and safety,” said Khalid Hanafi, acting minister for the Taliban’s vice and virtue ministry.

The Taliban previously decided against reopening schools to girls above grade 6, reneging on an earlier promise and opting to appease their hard-line base at the expense of further alienating the international community. But this decree does not have widespread support among a leadership that’s divided between pragmatists and the hard-liners.


An Afghan burqa-clad woman makes her way through graves at a cemetery next to the Khwaja 'Abd Allah Ansari shrine in Herat, Afghanistan, on August 12, 2009. 

File Photo by Mohammad Kheirkhah/UPI | License Photo

That decision disrupted efforts by the Taliban to win recognition from potential international donors at a time when the country is mired in a worsening humanitarian crisis.

“For all dignified Afghan women wearing Hijab is necessary and the best Hijab is chadori (the head-to-toe burqa) which is part of our tradition and is respectful,” said Shir Mohammad, an official from the vice and virtue ministry in a statement.

“Those women who are not too old or young must cover their face, except the eyes,” he said. “Islamic principles and Islamic ideology are more important to us than anything else.”

Senior Afghanistan researcher Heather Barr of Human Rights Watch urged the international community to put coordinated pressure on the Taliban.

“(It is) far past time for a serious and strategic response to the Taliban’s escalating assault on women’s rights,” she wrote on Twitter.

The Taliban were ousted in 2001 by a U.S.-led coalition for harboring al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden and returned to power in the waning days of America’s chaotic departure last year.

The White House National Security Council condemned the Taliban’s Saturday decree and urged them to reverse it.

“We are discussing this with other countries and partners. The legitimacy and support that the Taliban seeks from the international community depend entirely on their conduct, specifically their ability to back stated commitments with actions,” it said in a statement.

Since taking power last August, the Taliban leadership has been squabbling among themselves as they struggle to transition from war to governing. It has pit hard-liners against the more pragmatic among them.

A spokeswoman from Pangea, an Italian non-governmental organization that has assisted women for years in Afghanistan, said the new decree would be particularly difficult for them to swallow since they had lived in relative freedom until the Taliban takeover.

“In the last 20 years, they have had the awareness of human rights, and in the span of a few months have lost them,” Silvia Redigolo said by telephone. “It’s dramatic to (now) have a life that doesn’t exist.”

Infuriating many Afghans is the knowledge that many of the Taliban of the younger generation, like Sirajuddin Haqqani, are educating their girls in Pakistan, while in Afghanistan women and girls have been targeted by their repressive edicts since taking power. Haqqani is a U.N.-designated terrorist and head of the Haqqani network, which has been blamed for some of the deadliest attacks during the 20-year U.S.-led invasion.

Girls have been banned from school beyond grade 6 in most of the country since the Taliban’s return. Universities opened earlier this year in much of the country, but since taking power the Taliban edicts have been erratic. While a handful of provinces continued to provide education to all, most provinces closed educational institutions for girls and women.

The religiously driven Taliban administration fears that going forward with enrolling girls beyond the the sixth grade could alienate their rural base, Hashmi said.

In Kabul, private schools and universities have operated uninterrupted.

_____

Associated Press writer Rahim Faiez in Islamabad, Thomas Strong in Washington and Frances D’Emilio in Rome contributed to this report

Less immigrant labor in US contributing to price hikes
By NICHOLAS RICCARDIMay 7, 2022


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Joshua Correa, left, steadies a scaffolding for Samuel as they work at a home under construction in Plano, Texas, Tuesday, May 3, 2022. There are an estimated 2 million fewer immigrants than expected in the United States, helping fuel a desperate scramble for workers in many sectors, from meatpacking to homebuilding, that are also contributing to shortages and price increases. Correa has struggled to hire supervisors for his work sites, with immigrant job candidates demanding $100,000 yearly pay. 

(AP Photo/LM Otero)

Just 10 miles from the Rio Grande, Mike Helle’s farm is so short of immigrant workers that he’s replaced 450 acres of labor-intensive leafy greens with crops that can be harvested by machinery.

In Houston, Al Flores increased the price of his BBQ restaurant’s brisket plate because the cost of the cut doubled due to meatpacking plants’ inability to fully staff immigrant-heavy production lines. In the Dallas area, Joshua Correa raised prices on the homes his company builds by $150,000 to cover increased costs stemming partly from a lack of immigrant labor.

After immigration to the United States tapered off during the Trump administration — then ground to a near complete halt for 18 months during the coronavirus pandemic — the country is waking up to a labor shortage partly fueled by that slowdown.

The U.S. has, by some estimates, 2 million fewer immigrants than it would have if the pace had stayed the same, helping power a desperate scramble for workers in many sectors, from meatpacking to homebuilding, that is also contributing to supply shortages and price increases.

“These 2 million missing immigrants are part of the reason we have a labor shortage,” said Giovanni Peri, an economist at the University of California at Davis, who calculated the shortfall. “In the short run, we are going to adjust to these shortages in the labor market through an increase in wages and in prices.”

The labor issues are among several contributors to the highest inflation in 40 years in the United States — from supply chains mangled by the pandemic to a surge in energy and commodity prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Steve Camarota, a researcher at the Center for Immigration Studies, which advocates for less immigration, believes a spike in illegal immigration under President Joe Biden will make up whatever shortfall lingers from the pandemic. He also contends wage increases in low-paying sectors like agriculture are minor contributors to inflation.

“I don’t think wages going up is bad for the poor, and I think mathematically it is not possible to drive down inflation by limiting wages at the bottom,” Camarota told The Associated Press.

Immigration is rapidly returning to its pre-pandemic levels, researchers say, but the U.S. would need a significant acceleration to make up its deficit. Given a sharp decline in births in the United States over the past two decades, some economists forecast the overall pool of potential workers will start shrinking by 2025.

The immigrant worker shortage comes as the U.S. political system is showing less of an appetite for increasing immigration. Democrats — who control all branches of the federal government and more recently have been the party more friendly to immigration — haven’t tried to advance major legislation permitting more new residents to the country. A recent Gallup poll showed worries about illegal immigration at a two-decade high. With a tough election for their party looming in November, Democrats are increasingly divided about the Biden administration’s attempt to end pandemic-related restrictions on seeking asylum.

“At some point we either decide to become older and smaller or we change our immigration policy,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, an economist and former official in President George W. Bush’s administration who is president of the center-right American Action Forum. He acknowledged a change in immigration policy is unlikely: “The bases of both parties are so locked in.”

That’s certainly the case in Republican-dominated Texas, which includes the longest and busiest stretch of the southern border. The Legislature in 2017 forced cities to comply with federal immigration agents seeking people who are in the U.S. illegally. Gov. Greg Abbott sent the Texas National Guard to patrol the border and recently created traffic snarls by ordering more inspections at border ports.

The turn against immigration distresses some Texas business owners. “Immigration is very important for our workforce in the United States,” said Correa. “We just need it.”

He’s seeing delays of two to three months on his projects as he and his subcontractors — from drywallers to plumbers to electricians — struggle to field crews. Correa has raised the standard price of his houses from $500,000 to about $650,000.

“We’re feeling it and, if we’re feeling it at the end of the day as builders and developers, the consumer pays the price,” said Correa, who spoke from Pensacola, Florida, where he brought a construction crew as a favor to a client whose hasn’t been able to find laborers to fix a beach house damaged by Hurricane Sally in 2020.

The share of the U.S. population born in another country — 13.5% in the latest census — is the highest it has been since the 19th century. But even before Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election vowing to cut immigration, migration to the United States was slowing. The Great Recession dried up many jobs that drew workers to the country, legally or illegally. Rising standards of living in Latin America have prodded more people to stay put — or to return from the United States.

Flores, who runs a chain of Mexican restaurants as well as his barbecue restaurant, said while the COVID-19 pandemic was a bigger shock to his industry, the immigration slowdown has hit it hard — and not just for meatpackers that supply his restaurant’s brisket. “You’ve got a lot of positions that aren’t being filled,” he said.

He’s steadily raised pay, up to $15 an hour recently. “This is a culmination of years and years,” said Flores, who’s president of the Greater Houston Restaurant Association.

Helle, who raises onion, cabbage, melons and kale just outside the border town of McAllen, Texas, is also paying more to his workers, who are almost exclusively immigrants. People born in the U.S., he says, won’t work the fields regardless of the pay.

Before he could find farmworkers just in the region. Now he’s joined a federal program to bring agricultural workers across the border. It’s more expensive for him, but he said it’s the only way he can keep his crops from spoiling in the ground.

Helle, 60, has farmed the area for decades. “I live 10 miles from the Rio Grande river and I never in my life thought we’d be in this situation.”

Brazil’s Lula courts centrists at unofficial campaign launch

By MAURICIO SAVARESE and DÉBORA

MAY 7, 2022

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Confetti showers former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and supporters after the announcement of his candidacy for the country’s upcoming presidential election, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Saturday, May 7, 2022. Brazil's general elections are scheduled for Oct. 2, 2022. 

(AP Photo/Andre Penner)


SAO PAULO (AP) — At the effective launch of his campaign on Saturday, Brazil’s former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva aimed to lure centrists into his coalition to strengthen his bid to unseat incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro.

“We want to unite democrats of all origins and colors to face and beat the totalitarian threat, the hatred,” da Silva told thousands of supporters of his Workers’ Party, members of unions and political allies who gathered in Sao Paulo.

“We want to come back so no one ever again dares to challenge our democracy and so fascism returns to the gutters of history, which it should never have left,” the former president added. “To end this crisis and grow, Brazil needs to be a normal country again.”

The event was technically the launch of da Silva’s pre-campaign, as the law doesn’t permit people to formally declare themselves candidates before Aug. 5. The leftist leads all polls to return to the job he held from 2003 to 2010, but his sizeable advantage against the far-right Bolsonaro in the October election has been narrowing in recent weeks, according to some surveys.

Bolsonaro has challenged Supreme Court justices and their decisions, sown doubt about the reliability of Brazil’s electronic voting system and portrayed upcoming elections as a fight between good and evil. Analysts have expressed concern he is preparing to challenge election results.

The most concrete effort on Da Silva’s part to make inroads with moderates so far was his selection of a rival, Geraldo Alckmin, as his running mate. Alckmin, a center-right Catholic, appeared via video because he tested positive for COVID-19 on Thursday. The former Sao Paulo governor lost his 2006 and 2018 bids for the presidency, during which he fiercely criticized the Workers’ Party administrations.

“No disagreement of the past, no difference with the president and not even the possible discords of today and tomorrow will allow me to excuse myself from supporting and defending with resolve that Lula should return to Brazil’s presidency,” Alckmin said, adding that Bolsonaro’s administration is “the most disastrous and cruel of the country’s history.”

“When President Lula gave me his hand, I saw more than a gesture of reconciliation between two historical opponents. I saw a call to reason,” he said.

Alckmin has been compared to former Vice President José Alencar, who died in 2011 and was instrumental for da Silva’s campaign to pivot to the center and win in 2002.

Members of other moderate political parties not aligned with da Silva also attended, including Sen. Otto Alencar and Sen. Veneziano Vital do Rego.

“We need to broaden this coalition and that’s what today is for, too,” Alencar told reporters. His party is unlikely to field a presidential candidate this year. “If we can’t bring centrist parties to Lula in the first voting round, let them come in the second. We need to have our arms open for every democrat.”

Da Silva’s effort to woo moderates runs in line with what many analysts say he must do in order to ensure victory. Political analyst Bruno Carazza told The Associated Press that polling data shows him consolidating support among leftist voters, but having less success connecting with people elsewhere on the spectrum.

For example, da Silva said on April 5 that he sees the legalization of abortion as a public health issue and defended abortion rights. His comments spurred instant backlash from critics who said he risked unsettling moderates he should be prioritizing.

The next day, da Silva partially walked back his statement, saying in a radio interview he is personally against abortions, but believes they should be legal.

Political scientist Antonio Lavareda told the AP that he sees little room for da Silva’s support to grow, given that he is already Brazil’s best-known politician.

Likewise, polls already reflect the feelings of voters who won’t for him under any circumstance, particularly as a result of his arrest and conviction for corruption and money laundering that sidelined him from the 2018 race. Those convictions have since been annulled, because the judge presiding over the cases was deemed to be biased.

Many of da Silva’s supporters seemed less than excited about his nods to moderates and the right-leaning politician joining him on the ticket.

“I don’t think we can trust people who were against us until very recently,” said Eleonora Santos, a 47-year-old bank teller, wearing a shirt featuring da Silva’s face during his first presidential campaign in 1989. When posing for pictures in front of a giant poster of Da Silva and Alckmin, she stood in front of Alckmin’s image so as to prevent him from appearing next to her candidate.

“I understand Bolsonaro gives us different challenges and we need to have more support. I just don’t think this guy gives us anything,” she said. “His voters will never be Lula voters.”

Most of da Silva’s comments in recent weeks have touted the achievements of his two-term presidency, including lifting tens of millions of people from poverty. He did the same Saturday’, saying his administration put an end to hunger in Brazil, only to have Bolsonaro bring it back.

In a recent interview with Time magazine, he said he wouldn’t discuss economic policy until after winning the election -- despite the fact many Brazilians, struggling to make ends meet amid double-digit inflation and high unemployment, are eager to hear how candidates intend to come to their aid.

“It is clear that he will capitalize on data from his administrations, but Brazil has changed a lot, new demands have arisen,” Carraza said. “The economic situation is much more challenging and much more difficult after the pandemic and with the war in Ukraine. It’s a very different context than the one 20 years ago.”

For now, though, da Silva’s focus appears to be casting himself as a protector of democracy amid a threat of authoritarianism. Wellington Dias, one of the coordinators of da Silva’s campaign, told reporters da Silva will continue to win moderate votes.

“He will increasingly show democrats that their choice is important, that they can accept there are differences, but democracy should be above all,” Dias said. ___ Álvares contributed from Brasilia.