British Airways ground staff accept new pay offers
By Rob Gill / 25 July 2022 / 


British Airways check-in and ground staff at Heathrow have accepted new pay deals, ending the threat of strike action being taken this summer.

Both the GMB and Unite unions have announced that their members have agreed to the latest pay offers from the airline.

The GMB said that three-quarters of affected BA workers at Heathrow had voted in favour of a revised pay deal offering an 8 per cent increase plus bonus. Meanwhile Unite said its members were getting a pay increase worth about 13 per cent, which will be paid in “several stages”.

Nadine Houghton, GMB’s national officer, said: “This improved pay deal came because of their efforts. Now these mainly women workers have won pay improvements for themselves – as well as forcing BA to make this offer to the rest of their staff too.”

Members of both unions had voted to take industrial action in the dispute about pay until finally accepting better offers from British Airways.

Unite's general secretary Sharon Graham said: “This is a great result for our check-in members at British Airways. By standing together, they have forced a corporate giant like BA to do the right thing and restore levels of pay slashed in the pandemic.”

A BA spokesperson added: “We are delighted with this positive news.”

Lufthansa ground staff to hold one-day strike in pay dispute
By Rob Gill / 25 July 2022 /


Ground staff working for Lufthansa are set to stage a one-day strike this week in a pay dispute causing more disruption for the airline’s passengers.

Around 20,000 airline workers, who are members of the ver.di union, are due to walk out from 3.45am on Wednesday (27 July) until 6am on Thursday (28 July).

The union confirmed that this week’s strike would affect all Lufthansa’s bases, including Frankfurt, Dusseldorf, Cologne, Hamburg, Munich and Berlin, and would cause “major flight cancellations and delays”.

Ver.di is demanding a 9.5 per cent pay increase for its members and is holding a so-called “warning strike”, ahead of further negotiations with Lufthansa in August.

“The situation at the airports in Germany is currently unbearable on many days - for the employees and the passengers,” said ver.di in a statement. “But workers are not to blame for long waits, cancelled or missed flights, and missing luggage.

“On the contrary: the ground handling services and security forces that remain after two years of the pandemic, including massive job cuts, are doing their best every day to keep air traffic going.”

The union added that its members were “out of breath” and blamed the airline for “hardly doing anything to improve their situation”.

But Lufthansa called the one-day strike “unreasonable” and said it would be an “unnecessary burden” for passengers.

Michael Niggemann, chief officer of human resources at Lufthansa, added: “After only two days of negotiations, ver.di has announced a strike that can hardly be called a warning strike due to its breadth across all locations and its duration.

“This is all the more incomprehensible given that the employer side has offered high and socially balanced pay increases – despite the continuing tense economic situation for Lufthansa following the Covid crisis, high debt burdens and uncertain prospects for the global economy.

“After the enormous efforts to stabilise our flight operations, this represents a renewed, substantial and unnecessary burden for our passengers and also for our employees beyond the strike day.”

The next round of negotiations between the two sides is scheduled to take place on 3 and 4 August.

Network Rail urges train passengers not to travel on strike day
By Rob Gill / 25 July 2022 / 


Network Rail has urged UK train passengers only to travel “if necessary” on Wednesday (27 July) as workers stage their fourth day of strike action.

An estimated 40,000 members of the RMT union are set to hold their latest 24-hour stoppage in an ongoing dispute over pay and jobs with Network Rail and 14 train operating companies.

The latest walkout comes after the RMT held three one-day strikes across the UK in June causing widespread disruption, with another two days of action planned for 18 and 20 August.

Network Rail said it planned to run around 20 per cent of normal services on 27 July with some areas having no rail services at all. The special timetable will also see trains start service later than normal, from 7.30am, and finish earlier, around 6.30pm.

Andrew Haines, Network Rail’s chief executive, said: “Despite our best efforts to find a breakthrough, I’m afraid there will be more disruption for passengers this week as the RMT seems hell-bent on continuing their political campaigning, rather than compromising and agreeing a deal for their members.

“It is frustrating to yet again ask our passengers to change their plans and only make essential journeys.”

Passengers are also being advised to expect disruption on the morning of Thursday (28 July) with a later start to services as staff return to duties.

Meanwhile, train drivers who are members of the Aslef union are due to strike on Saturday (30 July) at eight train companies in a separate pay dispute: Arriva Rail London, Chiltern Railways, Greater Anglia, Great Western, Hull Trains, LNER, Southeastern and West Midlands Trains.

Steve Montgomery, chair of the Rail Delivery Group, which represents the train operating companies, added: “We are incredibly disappointed that the RMT and Aslef leadership are continuing with this action, disrupting the summer plans of millions.

“While we will do all that we can to minimise disruption to passengers, our advice is to only travel if it is necessary, and if you are going to travel, please plan ahead.”

RMT general secretary Mick Lynch said that its members were “more determined than ever to secure a decent pay rise, job security and good working conditions”.

“Network Rail have not made any improvement on their previous pay offer and the train companies have not offered us anything new,” he added. “RMT will continue to negotiate in good faith but we will not be bullied or cajoled by anyone.”

UK MPs warn persistent understaffing of NHS in England ‘serious risk to patient safety’

by Staff Writer | Jul 26, 2022 | Briefing

THE NHS AND SOCIAL CARE in England face the greatest workforce crisis in their history, compounded by the absence of a credible government strategy to tackle the situation, say MPs. In the NHS, persistent understaffing poses a serious risk to staff and patient safety in routine and emergency care.

The Workforce: recruitment, training and retention report outlines the scale of the workforce crisis. New research suggests the NHS in England is short of 12,000 hospital doctors and more than 50,000 nurses and midwives; evidence on workforce projections say an extra 475,000 jobs will be needed in health and an extra 490,000 jobs in social care by the early part of the next decade; hospital waiting lists reached a record high of nearly 6.5 million in April.

The report finds the Government to have shown a marked reluctance to act decisively. The refusal to do proper workforce planning risked plans to tackle the Covid backlog –  a key target for the NHS.

The number of full-time equivalent GPs fell by more than 700 over three years to March 2022, despite a pledge to deliver 6,000 more. Appearing before the inquiry, the then Secretary of State, Sajid Javid, admitted he was not on track to deliver them. The report describes a situation where NHS pension arrangements force senior doctors to reduce working hours as a “national scandal” and calls for swift action to remedy.

Maternity services are flagged as being under serious pressure with more than 500 midwives leaving in a single year. A year ago the Committee’s maternity safety inquiry concluded almost 2,000 more midwives were needed and almost 500 more obstetricians. The Secretary of State failed to give a deadline by when a shortfall in midwife numbers would be addressed.

Pay is a crucial factor in recruitment and retention in social care. Government analysis estimated more than 17,000 jobs in care paid below the minimum wage.

A separate report by the Committee’s panel of independent experts rates the government’s progress overall to meet key commitments it has made on workforce as “inadequate”.

On workforce planning, experts found no evidence that targets for staff numbers were linked with patient and service need and little evidence of social care workforce planning at a local or national level. According to many stakeholders the Panel heard from, the lack of workforce planning by the government is having a negative impact on recruitment and retention in both sectors.

On building a skilled workforce, the government was unable to give a breakdown of spending for social care to demonstrate how the extra £1 billion committed annually was spent on additional social care staff, better infrastructure, technology, and facilities.

On wellbeing at work, rates of bullying, harassment and abuse in the NHS remain “concerningly high” with more than one in four NHS staff experiencing at least one incident of bullying in the preceding 12 months.

Professor Dame Jane Dacre, Chair of the Expert Panel, said: “We could not give the government any higher than an ‘inadequate’ rating on its overall progress in meeting its own targets set for the NHS and social care workforce. We were unable to rate progress on any of the individual commitments we evaluated as good.”

“Rates of bullying in the NHS are far too high, and we found measures to tackle the problem were either inadequate or require improvement. Worryingly, our evaluation found that overall progress on all the government commitments we looked at which involved social care, was inadequate.

“In terms of learning how better to support staff, the government has underestimated the complexity of the fragmented delivery model in the social care sector and failed to put a mechanism in place to listen to the their views.”

Responding to the Committee’s report, Royal College of Nursing Director for England, Patricia Marquis, said: “The findings of the Committee show in the starkest of detail the workforce crisis across the whole of health and social care in England. That persistent understaffing in all care settings poses a serious risk to staff and patient safety should shock ministers into action.

“As ministers continue to make claims about the number of new nurses, evidence submitted to the Committee found a significant lack of transparency on workforce planning and in fact that 475,000 jobs will be needed in health and an extra 490,000 jobs in social care by the early part of the next decade just to keep up with patient need.

“On pay, the Committee was very clear saying it is unacceptable that some NHS nurses are struggling to feed their families, pay their rent, and travel to work. Their recommendation that nursing staff should be given a pay rise that takes account of the cost of living crisis should make government rethink the latest pay deal that follows a decade of real terms pay cuts that will force even more to leave the profession.”

* Read Workforce: recruitment, training and retention in health and social care here.

Read: Expert Panel: evaluation of Government’s commitments in the area of the health and social care workforce in England here.

* Sources: Health and Social Care Committee and Royal College of Nursing

 CLIMATE CHANGE

Rising Sea Levels, Drought, Hurricanes and Deforestation Threaten Latin America and the Caribbean

By Alison Kentish

According to the 2021 World Meteorological Organization’s State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean report, extreme events have worsened the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Region, especially for the small island states of the Caribbean.

Coastal view from the Kalinago Territory in Dominica. Credit: Alison Kentish/IPS

UNITED NATIONS, Jul 26 2022 (IPS) - The highest deforestation rates since 2009. The third most active hurricane season on record. Extreme rainfall, floods, and landslides displaced tens of thousands of people. Rising sea levels. Glaciers in Peru lost more than half their size. Add the devastating impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic to the mix, and 2021 was a challenging year for Latin America and the Caribbean.

That’s according to the World Meteorological Organization’s State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2021 report, published on July 22. It is the United Nations weather agency’s second annual report.

It states that “sea levels in the region continued to rise in 2021 at a faster rate than globally, notably along the Atlantic coast of South America south of the equator, and the subtropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico,” a worrying development for the small island states of the Caribbean and large populations concentrated in coastal communities.

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season brought 21 named storms that included seven hurricanes and was the sixth consecutive above-average season.

It adds that extreme rainfall led to tens of thousands of homes being destroyed or damaged and hundreds of thousands of people displaced

The record-setting drought in Chile continued in 2021, marking the 13th consecutive year of the “Central Chile Mega-drought,” which placed the country at the center of the region’s water crisis.

“Increasing sea-level rise and ocean warming are expected to continue to affect coastal livelihoods, tourism, health, food, energy, and water security, particularly in small islands and Central American countries,” said Professor Petteri Taalas, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization.

Head of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) Mami Mizutori said as the second most disaster-prone region in the world, Latin America and the Caribbean are proof of how complex risks can be, adding that shocks that affect one sector can create damaging consequences in another, impacting the most at-risk communities.

“The COVID-19 pandemic offers a quintessential example of how interconnected risks can create severe upheaval, particularly when intersecting with climate change impacts. Last year, the fallout from hurricanes Eta and Iota collided with lingering COVID-19 impacts. The result was that 7.7 million people in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua faced high levels of food insecurity,” she said.

While the report outlines the dire impacts of extreme weather and climate change on the region, it is also prescriptive in its calls for long-term regional and national solutions.

One of these is a ‘risk to resilience’ goal.

The UNDRR head says the Bali Agenda for Resilience is a critical instrument in understanding the nature of risks and promoting mitigation and adaptation measures. The document promotes policies to shield communities from climate and other disasters and thwart a predicted global rate of 1.5 disasters a day by 2030.

“First and foremost is the need for risk management to become a shared responsibility across sectors. Getting on track to achieve the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals requires decision makers to adopt comprehensive climate and disaster risk management that puts people first, using current data and timely information.”

The report also recommends the expansion of access to multi-hazard early warning systems (EWS). Investment in these systems has been touted as one of the most powerful tools to adapt to climate change, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has challenged the WMO to present an action plan that ensures all people everywhere are covered by an early warning system in the next 5 years. The WMO is expected to present that plan to the 2022 UN Climate Conference in Egypt in November.

“Altogether, there is a need for a 1.5 billion US dollar investment in the next 5 years to get 100 percent coverage of early warning services and improve basic observing systems. We have major gaps in island states, Africa, and some parts of Latin America, and that needs to be improved,” the WMO Secretary-General said.

The report’s launch coincides with the impending peak of the annual Atlantic hurricane season. According to officials of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (UNECLAC), there is no question that countries in the region, particularly the small states of the Caribbean and Central America, remain highly vulnerable to the impacts of a changing climate

“2021 was yet another very active season. Many countries experienced major flooding and landslides that were compounded by a volcanic eruption in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, causing major dislocation, damage, and loss, and there was heavy rainfall and floods across Guyana, Suriname, and regions of Central America, affecting housing, fresh water sources and increasing food insecurity,” said ECLAC’s Subregional Office Chief Diane Quarless.

Quarless added that for small states in the region, the post-disaster need to continually source or reassign already scarce resources has eroded the ability of countries to build back better. ECLAC is supporting the call to strengthen and expand early warning systems to improve forecasting and planning for multi-hazards.

The State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean report provides science-based, timely information for policymakers on the realities of climate change and weather-related events and the best course of action.

The representatives of the UN agencies involved in sourcing and compiling the report says that the region has the needed data. It is now time to act.

IPS UN Bureau Report

Canada's Centerra Approves Resolution Paving Way For Kyrgyz Takeover Of Kumtor
July 26, 2022
By RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service

Kumtor is one of the largest gold deposits in Central Asia.

Shareholders of the Canadian company Centerra Gold have approved a resolution with the Kyrgyz government and the firm Kyrgyzaltyn that paves the way for the completion of an agreement resolving a dispute that will put the Kumtor gold mine back in Kyrgyz hands.

Centerra Gold said 96.8 percent of the company's shareholders supported the resolution, while only 3.17 percent were against it.

Approval of the resolution was necessary to implement an April 4 agreement between Centerra Gold and Kyrgyzstan.

Kumtor had been the target of financial and environmental disagreements for years before turning into the subject of a control battle between the Kyrgyz state and Centerra Gold.

The Kyrgyz government has insisted that Centerra's operations endangered human lives and the environment, which the company denied.

In May 2021, the Canadian firm said it had "initiated binding arbitration to enforce its rights under longstanding investment agreements with the government."

Many Kyrgyz lawmakers have expressed concern about an alleged lack of transparency at Kumtor since the Kyrgyz government took control of the gold mine in April.

Joni Mitchell, 78, graces stage after nearly 2 decades away


By Associated Press
July 26, 2022 

NEWPORT, RI — Surprise! Joni Mitchell is back onstage.

The folk legend performed her first full-length concert on Sunday at the Newport Folk Festival in Rhode Island, The Boston Globe reported. Mitchell has contended with health complications since suffering an aneurysm in 2015, and her last full show was in late 2002, according to reports.

Seated in a wingback chair and wearing a blue beret and sunglasses, Mitchell joined festival headliner Brandi Carlile and a bevy of other artists, including Wynonna Judd, Allison Russell and Marcus Mumford. It was Mitchell’s first Newport festival performance since 1969.

This was, Carlile explained, a recreation of the “Joni Jam” musical gatherings that have brought famous friends like Elton John to Mitchell’s Los Angeles home in recent years.

And Mitchell wasn’t there to just to sing. Halfway through the 13-song set, she played an electric guitar solo, which was her first time playing guitar in public since her aneurysm, Carlile said.

The ensemble played Mitchell’s most familiar songs (“Circle Game,” “Big Yellow Taxi”) and a few of her favorites (“Love Potion No. 9,” “Why Do Fools Fall in Love”).

After their rendition of “Both Sides Now,” Carlile was fighting back tears. Addressing the audience, she asked: “Did the world just stop?”

TURKIYE'S WAR ON KURDISTAN

UN Security Council condemns attack in northern Iraq that killed civilians

Council says it extends full support towards Iraqi government's investigation

Members of the UN Security Council. AFP

Mina Aldroubi
Jul 25, 2022

The UN Security Council has condemned the attack in the northern Iraqi province of Dohuk, which resulted in the deaths of at least nine civilians including children.

Artillery bombing hit the tourist resort of Zakho, a popular destination for Iraqis from across the country, on July 20. The strike also injured more than 30 people.

The condemnation came after Baghdad requested an emergency session of the council over the deadly attack.

"Members of the Security Council expressed their deepest sympathy and condolences to the families of the victims and to the Government of Iraq and the Iraqi Kurdistan Region," said the council.

The UN body expressed its full "support for the Iraqi authorities in their investigations" and wished "a speedy and full recovery to those who were injured."

It called on all member states to "co-operate actively with the government of Iraq and all other relevant authorities in support of these investigations."

"The members of the Security Council reiterated their support for the independence, sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity, democratic process and prosperity of Iraq," said the UN body.

Iraq has accused Turkey of the deadly bombardment, but Ankara rejected claims that it had carried out the strike.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday that the attack was carried out by "terrorists" and aimed at harming Turkey-Iraq ties.

READ MORE
Iraqi families torn apart by holiday resort attack say ‘they can no longer live'

UN Security Council to hold urgent session on 'Turkish aggression', Iraq says

Mr Erdogan said Turkey had informed its NATO allies, including the US, as well as Iraqi authorities, of its position on the attack.

The president called on Iraq not to fall for what he described as propaganda by Kurdish militants.

He was speaking to Turkish state broadcaster TRT Haber.

Turkey's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement after the attack extending its condolences to the victims' families.

The ministry said it was ready to "take all steps to reveal the truth" of who was behind the attack.

Ankara has for years been conducting attacks and military operations in northern Iraq, part of a four-decade battle against Kurdish separatist militias, such as the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK.

In 2016, Turkey established a permanent military presence in Bashiqa, about 75 kilometres from Dohuk.

Updated: July 26, 2022,

Analysis-Workers seize their moment to shift the balance of power

By Mark John - 

© Reuters/BENOIT TESSIERFILE PHOTO:

 Protest against low wages at the Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport in Roissy, near Paris

(Reuters) - It should surprise no one that the first big pandemic-era display of worker power was in air travel, according to Sharan Burrow, head of the International Trade Union Confederation.

"The aviation sector globally is a prime example of bad employment policy," Burrow said of an industry whose high-volume, low-cost model has long been criticised for poor working conditions and eroding labour rights.

"People are voting with their feet," she told Reuters of the reluctance of many aviation workers to return after dismissals or furloughs, a trend which - alongside strikes over pay - caused havoc at European airports last month.


© Reuters/PHIL NOBLEFILE PHOTO: Placards are seen near a union picket line on the first day of a national rail strike at Manchester Piccadilly Station in Manchester

The bigger question now is whether other workers will follow suit and reverse a decades-old decline in industrial action that has seen employers gain the upper hand in labour relations.

Conditions appear ripe for unrest.

COVID-19 exacerbated economic inequalities, with a World Bank study last year showing incomes were worst-hit among the poorest fifth of people globally.

Workers in transport, retail and healthcare - while lauded by governments for their bravery - did low-paid jobs in often unsafe conditions as millions of white-collar workers worked from home.

Compounding the impact of a decade of weak wage growth in rich countries after the 2008/09 recession, inflation now edging into double-digits is worsening the plight of the working poor.


© Reuters/LINDSEY WASSONFILE PHOTO: 

Off-duty Delta Air Lines pilots picket outside Seattle-Tacoma International Airport in Seattle

Yet while such grievances are real, trade unions have lost much of the clout they had before the 1980s push for economic liberalisation.

THE FISSURED WORKPLACE

Trade union density - the number of union members as a proportion of employees - has more than halved across developed economies from 33.9% in 1970 to just 15.8% in 2019, figures from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development show.

U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics show a corresponding decline over the same period both in the number of serious U.S. work stoppages and total number of days lost to industrial action.

Graphic: Rich-world economies see decades of ebbing industrial action - https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-ECONOMY/WORKERS/lgpdwzegovo/chart.png

Graphic: Large-scale U.S. organized labor strikes - https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-LABOR/USA-STRIKES/dwpkrbebwvm/chart.png

Since its 1990s "lost decade", Japan has rarely seen industrial strife as union leaders prioritise job security above wage hikes. Other Western economies such as Australia have passed laws to make strikes harder.

In Europe, unions can still wield power despite falling membership. But data compiled by the European Trade Union Institute (ETUI) show a similar dip in labour-related disruption as trends from outsourcing to the gig economy emerged.


© Reuters/CARL RECINEFILE PHOTO: The first day of national rail strikes, in Crewe

"There might be grievances in society and on the work floor but this social injustice needs to be organised and channelled," said Kurt Vandaele, senior ETUI researcher.

"Fissured workplaces might make it harder to set up industrial action because in the same place you have different categories of workers, different companies. This is increasing the coordination costs for unions."


© Reuters/SARAH MEYSSONNIERFILE PHOTO:

French airport workers on strike to demand salary hike at the Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport

A 2021 report by the International Labour Organisation warned trade unions they risked being marginalised unless they served those in precarious or informal employment - notably young workers, for whom secure contracts are rare.

SOCIAL MEDIA HEROES?

There is some evidence that unions are taking that on board.

Digital organisation is growing - from using Zoom calls to discuss worker grievances, right up to piggy-backing an employer's intranet site to spread union messages.

Some labour leaders, such as Christian Smalls, whose activism led in March to Amazon's first labour-organised warehouse at Staten Island, or UK transport union boss Mick Lynch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yv6kt_tMsPU, have even emerged as social media stars.

Encouraged by the union-friendly Biden administration, U.S. petitions for a vote to see whether employees want to unionise rose 58% from a year earlier to 1,892 in the nine months to June 30, the National Labor Relations Board said this month.

Among them are workers at Starbucks and Chipotle, while tech employees are becoming more vocal about pay and conditions. Yet current U.S. law still gives employers scope to avoid offering contracts with legally binding terms, labour experts say.

"In this country, to get from not having a union all the way to having a union contract is an incredibly difficult journey," said Lane Windham, associate director of Georgetown University's labor center.

Germany's biggest union IG Metall is pushing this year for an 8% pay rise, a marked shift from its recent focus on job security. In Britain, where airport staff, lawyers, teachers, medics, postal, telecom and rail workers are eyeing action, the Trades Union Congress cites a surge in traffic to its "find a union" web page.

What such trends amount to remains to be seen. But governments are taking notice.

South Korea this month condemned as "illegal" a strike at Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering 042660.KS (DSME) and warned of intervention to break the bid by some 100 subcontractors to secure a 30% pay rise.

In contrast, Germany's centre-left coalition, fearing a looming energy crisis will trigger social unrest, has opened consultations with employers and trade unions over ways to shield households from rising inflation.

"The goal is to pull in as many stakeholders as possible so they can tell people they are doing all they can," political analyst Gero Neugebauer said.

ETUI's Vandaele said he was watching for a potential "demonstration effect" where recent transport strikes inspire industrial action by public sector or healthcare workers.

Some governments and central banks are urging wage moderation, warning that overly generous wage rounds could trigger a wage-price spiral pushing inflation even higher.

But with wage gains lagging headline inflation rate driven by food and energy prices, that argument has little traction with labour leaders.

"The risk is not inflationary wage pressures," said the ITUC's Burrow. "The fact that working people cannot participate in the economy to extent they want, even for basics like energy and food in some cases, is fuelling a slump in the economy."

(Writing by Mark John; Additional reporting by Doyinsola Oladipo and Dan Burns in Washington; Leika Kihara in Tokyo, Wayne Cole in Sydney, Joe Bavier in Johannesburg and Andreas Rinke in Berlin; Editing by Catherine Evans)

Strike Threats Leave Next UK Leader Facing Winter of Discontent

Echoes of the 1970s with pay falling in real terms, growth slowing and workers angry

Bloomberg News
Philip Aldrick
Publishing date:Jul 26, 2022 •
(Bloomberg) — This is the second story in a six-part series on the political and economic landscape facing Britain’s new prime minister.

Britain’s next prime minister will inherit the worst relations with unions and workers since the 1970s, with millions of public sector employees angry their pay is slipping further behind inflation.

Discord among government workers is likely to be the most immediate legacy for Boris Johnson’s successor, whether it’s Foreign Secretary Liz Truss or former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak who wins the race to be decided in early September.

Last week’s pay settlements for 2.5 million of Britain’s public sector workers prompted a chorus of disapproval. In almost every case, the government’s offer was below inflation. Unions are now sounding out members — including teachers, nurses, and civil servants — about walking off the job in protest this autumn.

That follows damaging rail strikes that brought London to a standstill earlier this month and are likely to do the same twice this week. The summer of discontent, marked by waves of striking barristers and staff in formerly nationalized industries like rail, mail and telecoms now looks likely to stretch into the remainder of the year.

There are even mutterings among union officials of a “winter of discontent,” with its Shakespearean undertones and memories of the rolling industrial action in 1978 and 1979 that brought down the Labour government and catapulted Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative Party into power.

“There is a level of anger like I’ve never known,” said Kevin Rowan, head of organization and services at the Trades Union Congress.

The pressure on public-sector pay is just one of the major challenges facing the next prime minister. This week, Bloomberg News is looking at the cost-of-living crisis, the crisis facing the National Health Service, the costs of Brexit, and what happened to Johnson’s election promise to “level up” deprived parts of the country.

The last major public sector strike was in 2011 in protest at pension reforms, when up to 2 million teachers, civil servants, National Health Service workers and others walked out together for one day. “This time is worse in terms of how people are feeling,” Rowan said.

Across the economy, wage growth is struggling to keep pace with inflation racing ahead at a 40-year high of 9.4%. While some private-sector workers are getting a big boost — especially in hospitality and other trades where workers are in high demand — the pay of public sector workers has lagged for more than a decade and is falling further behind.

That’s delivered the biggest squeeze on consumer spending power in at least two decades — a cost-of-living crisis that research groups say will lead to more people falling into poverty. Traditionally middle-class professions are not immune.

Teacher unions, including headteachers, are consulting members over strike action. So are civil-service unions and the Royal College of Nursing, whose General Secretary Pat Cullen dropped a less than subtle hint by welcoming “the growing public support, including over strike action.”

Rowan said the number of consultations unions are having with members is extremely unusual. He expects further ballots on whether to strike to under discussion in the coming weeks.

Including local authority and ancillary workers, there are 5.5 million people in the UK public sector, about 15% of all workers in the economy.

Ballots and strike threats are often an attempt to bring employers to the negotiating table. For the moment, though, both Truss and Sunak are standing firm. They insist the public sector deals are fair.

But it may be a hard line to hold in the face of increasing public support for industrial action. Sympathy for strikers increased after 50,000 rail workers walked out in early June demanding better pay and terms, according to an Opinium poll.

“There has been a mood shift,” Frances O’Grady, general secretary of the TUC, told members of Parliament last week. “We saw that with the public sympathy for some of the strikes that we have had recently.”

That support may reflect the special place key workers secured in the national consciousness during the pandemic. Week after week., people across the country stepped on to their doorsteps to “clap for carers” in hospitals and the emergency services that looked after Covid victims.

Yet the pressure on the public sector workers is only increasing, making them more indispensable than ever. A record 6.6 million patients are waiting for treatment on the National Health Service. There also are more than 100,000 jobs that need filling. Anxiety, stress and depression are rising, leading to more issues with sickness rates and employee retention, according to the independent NHS Pay Review Body.

A similar story can be told in education, where staff retention is poor. A third of new teachers quit the profession within five years. Pay is one way of boosting morale.

“Pay is not everything, but it does not half help,” O’Grady said.

The trend toward weaker public sector pay has accelerated in the past five years, most starkly this year. The latest public sector settlements were around 5%, below the 7.2% private sector average, according to the Office for National Statistics. That compares with inflation at a 40 year high of 9.4%.

“To give you three examples, the TUC has calculated that since 2010 nurses are worse off in real terms by more than £5,000; porters by £2,500; and paramedics by £6,700,” O’Grady added.

Aggravating the matter is the fact that government departments have been told to find savings of up to £2 billion to cover some of the pay rises. The next prime minister will be under pressure to borrow that additional money.

Then there’s the argument that public sector pay restraint is needed to prevent a wage price spiral, which economists have trashed. The Institute for Fiscal Studies said, “Fears of a ‘wage-price spiral’ in the public sector are overblown, given the fact that most public sector goods do not have market prices that can rise in response to higher wages.”

Health workers and teachers do not like striking, given the vital public service aspect of their roles, so it’s possible that some of the disputes are defused. But with anger rising, the unwelcome echoes of the 1970s are growing louder, raising the risks of another era of industrial action and stagflation.